Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 03 Oct 2014 15:51

Mysore to manufacture paper for currency notes next year

UK company, which supplies paper to RBI is really a foolish one or just taking orders from others, because by supplying a few reels to Pakis, they have lost their biggest client, i.e. India. Its triple advantage to India, save foreign currency on imported papers, create jobs and some infra in India and most importantly its stop FICN menace, which is a major funding source for ISI.

saip · Post by **saip** » 04 Oct 2014 03:37

India's problems are the old fuddy duddies desire to hang on to power whether they accomplish anything or not. The tragedy is that the people are willing to let them do it. Somehow the leaders think they are indispensable. Otherwise there is no reason why Mr Singh remained a PM for nearly ten years even though he had no powers.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 04 Oct 2014 03:49

saip wrote: Otherwise there is no reason why Mr Singh remained a PM for nearly ten years even though he had no powers.

This is the biggest tragedy of Independent India

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 06 Oct 2014 12:43

saip wrote:India's problems are the old fuddy duddies desire to hang on to power whether they accomplish anything or not. The tragedy is that the people are willing to let them do it. Somehow the leaders think they are indispensable. Otherwise there is no reason why Mr Singh remained a PM for nearly ten years even though he had no powers.

He wasn't as powerless as media and MMS himself tries to portray. He could very well sell Nooclear deal with USA at the cost of congress govt and no one threatened to put him in place.
He very successfully placed all the blame on SG and partners as if he was just piece of ornament in the govt. Dhritrashtra was said to be blind but MMS chose to watch the looting of India with eyes wide open.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 06 Oct 2014 13:23

^^The best description for Manmohan Singh in my view is that he is a coward. The man who had constitutional power but instead of the goodwill of the people of India, he preferred to be in the good offices of a selfish woman and her idiot son.

member_28797 · Post by **member_28797** » 06 Oct 2014 18:24

Maun moan wasn't as innocent as he pretends or media portrays him to be. He wasn't only spineless but was actively involved in a number of scams. Some of the news articles that recently came out after the great gandhi parivaar was kicked out of power.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 06 Oct 2014 18:57

RBI should raise rates to contain inflation: IMF paper
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/3svFgN ... paper.html

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 Oct 2014 19:49

But aren't the rates in India already high? How high they should be to curtail inflation, according to IMF?

member_28797 · Post by **member_28797** » 06 Oct 2014 20:06

sooraj wrote:RBI should raise rates to contain inflation: IMF paper
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/3svFgN ... paper.html

Is IMF a reliable source?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 06 Oct 2014 22:03

sooraj wrote:RBI should raise rates to contain inflation: IMF paper
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/3svFgN ... paper.html

Both analyst opinion polls and fund flow patterns suggest rates will remain stable or will fall, not rise, as the IMF advocates. As usual, they live in their own bubble.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 06 Oct 2014 22:53

Govt mulls IPR courts to fast-track cases

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/go ... /1295746/0

The government is working on a new, comprehensive policy on intellectual property rights (IPR), which would pave the way for setting up special IPR courts comprising experts to fast-track adjudication on infringement cases concerning all forms of IPRs, official sources told FE.

It also proposes to “mainstream” ‘jugaad’ — or an indigenous version of incremental invention with meagre resources — in the IPR landscape as a “utility patent”.

A separate legal regime for ‘utility patents’, which would be in compliance with the World Trade Organisation’s Trade Related aspects of IPRs Agreement (TRIPS), has also been proposed. The regime would have a less stringent criteria — where the registration process is simpler and the grant of the ‘utility patent' faster — as well as lesser costs to the applicant, both when compared to a normal patent.

However, since 'utility patents' will be for incremental innovations, the exclusive rights of the inventor holding such a patent will be only for 5-7 years from the date of filing a patent, unlike the 20 year-protection for a normal patent. A committee of IPR chairs of 20 leading universities including the National Law Schools and IITs is meeting on Monday.

The aim is to discuss with the government the way forward on ‘utility patents’, including an effective system for enforcement and dispute resolution.

A commerce and industry ministry discussion paper on 'utility models' in 2011 pointed out that several international pacts such as the Patent Cooperation Treaty, TRIPS and the Paris Convention for protection of IPRs have given recognition to the ‘utility model’. About 55 countries, including Brazil, China, Japan and Indonesia and two inter-governmental organisations have protection for ‘utility models’ though pharmaceutical products are mostly excluded from this framework, it said, adding that as per some independent studies, about 130 countries have adopted the utility model system.

There is broad support within the government and the industry for the concept of ‘utility patents’ in India and a separate law for it. This is because of a finding that most of India’s merchandise imports can be manufactured in the country. Therefore, giving legal recognition to ‘jugaad’ could not only incentivise incremental innovation in the country but also lead to more innovative manufacturing and creation of IPRs in the country.

'Utility patents’ are mainly aimed helping micro and small enterprises, grass-root-level innovators, artisans, non-government organisations, organisations like the National Innovation Foundation, as well as universities and schools. This will, in turn, aid in starting an ‘innovation movement’ and establishing a databank of innovations and technology. All this will lead to the entire manufacturing-related sectors going through a learning process and then graduating to the normal patent system.

However, the concerns include the difficulties that the severely short-staffed patent offices will face if there is a flood of ‘utility patent’ applications and later disputes. The government, therefore, is considering a separate administrative and adjudicative structure for ‘utility patents’. Soon, there will be consultations with the judiciary and the law ministry on the issue.

Govt brings out revised GST Bill, accommodates key demands of states

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/go ... es/1295858

The government has prepared a revised Constitution Amendment Bill for the Goods and Services Tax that largely accommodates the demands made by states. The government has set a target of 2016 for the launch of the pan-India indirect tax regime.

According to the revised Constitution (115th Amendment) Bill, the “proposal of dispute settlement authority has been dropped as demanded by the states and it has also been agreed to include a floor rate with bands to allow them the freedom to have a high or low rate”, a government official told The Indian Express.

The Cabinet note is being prepared for the Amendment Bill and it should be introduced in the Winter Session of Parliament, the official added.

A key demand of states to keep petrol and alcohol outside the purview of the GST has been met partially.The revised Bill brings in petroleum products within the regime to make the tax structure more business-friendly, but has left alcohol out. Earlier both petroleum and alcohol were kept out of the GST structure.

“The states have been demanding that petroleum and alcohol should be kept out. However, in the revised Bill, we have decided to keep petrol under GST while alcohol will continue to be outside its purview. This arrangement will be more GST-friendly,” the official said.

The product will be taxed at zero rate and both the states and Centre would continue to levy sales tax, VAT and excise duty respectively, the official added.

The official also said that the revised Bill also includes entry tax in lieu of octroi, which was earlier kept out. “This is important to reduce distortions as much as possible,” the official added.

The government is also looking at the GST as a route to improving the ease of doing business by bringing down the incidence of multiple taxes.

The GST aims at subsuming most of the indirect taxes at the Central as well as state level. The UPA government had introduced the Amendment Bill, a necessary condition for introducing the new regime, in 2011.

The idea, mooted in 2006, is pending since due to lack of consensus among states on issues regarding the exemption list, revenue neutral rate, threshold and compensation.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Oct 2014 04:53

Export cheer from engineering goods

Overall export growth was in double-digits in May and June; the next three months delivered single-digit expansion. August's was the lowest, at only 2.35 per cent.

Engineering goods, however, continued to have a good run in each of these months. The lowest growth was 23.2 per cent in July and the highest at 26.2 per cent in April. These goods were level with refined petroleum products for the top slot in exports. In August, outbound shipment of engineering goods was $6.6 billion, the highest exporter earner, followed by petroleum products at $5.1 bn.

However, much of the raw material for engineering exports are imported. The import intensity of engineering goods is roughly 40 per cent on an average, says Ajay Sahai, director-general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. This means $40 million of imports are made to export goods worth $100 mn.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 07 Oct 2014 18:57

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=110341

DIPP on a Overdrive to Boost Manufacturing 33 Pending Applications Approved

Giving a big boost to “Make In India”, the Licensing Committee chaired by Secretary, Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion has last week cleared 19 proposals for grant of Industrial License. These included applications for defence production from major players like, M/s Reliance Aerospace Technologies Limited, M/s Bharat Forge Limited, M/s Mahindra Telephonic Integrated Systems Limited, M/s Punj Lloyd Industries Limited, M/s Mahindra Aero Structure Pvt Limited, M/s Tata Advanced Materials Limited. Many of these proposals were pending in Government for last several years. It has been possible to approve these cases as consequence of the simplification of FDI policy vide Press Note 7 which has raised the FDI cap in defence from 26% to 49% and permitted portfolio investments upto 24% of the total equity of the investee / joint venture company under automatic route and doing away with requirement of 51% equity ownership by a single Indian investor/company.

In case of another additional 14 pending defence applications, applicants were informed that licenses were not required anymore as a vast number of defence items have been delicensed. Vide Press Note 3(2014), Defence Products list for industrial licensing have been issued, wherein large number of parts/components, castings/ forgings etc. have been excluded from preview of industrial licensing. Similarly dual use item, having military as well as civilian application (unless classified as defence items) do not now require Industrial License from defence angle. This has enabled domestic and international companies to undertake manufacturing without going through a lengthy process. The applicant company now only needs to file an Industrial Entrepreneur Memorandum (IEM) for these items and implement his project through the automatic route.

It is expected that clearance of these 33 applications and the deregulation of Defence product List excluding a large number of components from purview of industrial licensing will provide a major impetus to advanced manufacturing in Defence sector.

The Committee also discussed the possibility of removal of stipulation of annual capacity in the Industrial License as also to permit of sale of licensed items to other entities under the control of MHA, State Governments, PSUs and other valid defence licensed companies without requiring approval of DoDP. It was agreed that the above stipulation would be relaxed subject to submission of bi-annual returns by the unit. The DIPP would be shortly notifying the above decision by issue of a Press Note.

Government has taken a series of measures to improve the Ease of Doing Business in India. The emphasis has been on simplification and rationalization of the existing rules and introduction of information technology to make governance more efficient, effective, simple and user friendly. The measures include 24X7 availability of online filing of Industrial License(IL) and Industrial Entrepreneur Memorandum(IEM) applications, increasing initial validity period of Industrial License to three years, streamlining the processing of applications for grant of extension of validity of Industrial License, treating partial commencement of production as commencement of production for all the items included in the license, adoption of highly contemporary industrial classification code NIC 2008 in place of NIC 1987 and doing away with the requirement of affidavit from the applicants of Defence Industrial License, with the issue of the Defence Security Manual.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 07 Oct 2014 22:35

Another sad little stop in the MSFT/Nokia chaos. Where are you NM & JJ. This is happening on your watch. Another 25,000 jobs threatened.
More imports from Vietnam of all places. Sigh!

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/news/nokia-s ... -nov-1-519

Nokia to suspend Chennai plant operation from Nov 1

Earlier in June this year, Nokia announced that over 5,000 of the factory employees have agreed to opt for voluntary retirement scheme (VRS) introduced by the company a month ago. At present 851 operators and about 1,100 employees are left jobless. According to the company’s statement, Nokia is currently evaluating options to minimise the impact on existing employees at the manufacturing facility.

Post the Microsoft deal, the Sriperumbudur factory had orders to manufacture about 2 million handsets per month for two months. The order ended in June. During its peak, Nokia along with suppliers Salcomp, Foxconn, Perlos, Laird and Wintek employed over 25,000 people at the special economic zone. The companies had together invested at least $500 million. The component makers that were selling exclusively to Nokia till a few months ago have started to find other buyers, Muthukumar said. They are operational for now but nobody knows what is in stake in the future, he added.

Ever since Nokia started to cut down production at the Sriperumbudur factory, the company’s low-end devices have been in short supply in the market. The devices are now sourced from Vietnam but there is a huge gap between demand and supply, said Satish Babu, founder of the mobile phone retailer UniverCell.

“Nokia made only low-end phones, which it called feature phones, at the facility. It is very difficult to get Nokia devices now. If 100 devices are in demand, we get only 30 or 40. This festive season is probably the last season when the company will have a decent supply,” he said.

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 07 Oct 2014 23:34

nawabs wrote: Govt brings out revised GST Bill, accommodates key demands of states

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/go ... es/1295858
The government has prepared a revised Constitution Amendment Bill for the Goods and Services Tax that largely accommodates the demands made by states. The government has set a target of 2016 for the launch of the pan-India indirect tax regime.

The product will be taxed at zero rate and both the states and Centre would continue to levy sales tax, VAT and excise duty respectively, the official added.

The official also said that the revised Bill also includes entry tax in lieu of octroi, which was earlier kept out. “This is important to reduce distortions as much as possible,” the official added.

If this is the case then how is GST any different than the current tax system? Or are they just talking about the product "alcohol" here?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Oct 2014 03:39

The economic engine that was stalled by 3 years of stasis is coming back to life:
Stalled projects showsigns of a pick-up

Stalled projects are finally showing signs of traction, with the Modi government taking steps to revive those projects which were stuck due to policy paralysis and land acquisition problems. According to CMIE statistics, 36 projects were revived in the September quarter as compared to 20 in the June quarter. The number is the highest in the last 11 quarters and almost equals those revived in the December 2011 quarter.

The value of stalled industrial projects in the September quarter has declined to Rs 2.5 lakh crore from its peak of Rs 3 lakh crore in the March quarter this year. The value of stalled infrastructure projects is now contained at slightly below Rs 5 lakh crore, according to CMIE data. The revival of projects is in line with CEOs’ expectation that as the new government gives faster clearances and removes bottlenecks, stuck projects would move to the execution stage. The revival is mainly seen in the chemicals, petroleum products, and metal sector projects.

In the last four years, a large number of industrial projects were stalled across the country mainly due to land acquisition problems and lack of financing. This led to many CEOs complaining of a policy paralysis. The stalled projects led to bank money getting stuck as companies failed to implement projects.

“The decline in stalled projects is good news for the economy and in conformity with other parameters on GDP growth and industrial projects where there are signs of traction,” says D R Dogra, CEO and MD of CARE Ratings. “That said, I will still be cautious in interpreting these numbers as a rebound as we need to see if this trend is sustained and finally translates into capital formation. At present, the debt market is muted and credit growth is tardy. We need to wait and watch as to how progress takes place on this end. Otherwise, we do get a sense of recovery,” he said.

Industry gets green norm relief

The Centre has relaxed environment norms for industry in and around wildlife sanctuaries and national parks. To entertain states’ proposals to have no eco-sensitive zones around national parks and sanctuaries, the environment ministry has made it possible for project developers to begin work in these areas without a central nod. This was done through various guidelines issued in the last week of September.

In the case of industrial projects in wildlife areas, the ministry has said project proponents can carry out preliminary surveys after securing the approval of the forest officer (chief wildlife warden), instead of approaching the Centre, and, subsequently, seeking the nod of the National Board for Wildlife (NBWL).

PM wants fresh search for chief economic advisor

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley might have to begin a fresh search for filling the long-vacant post of chief economic advisor in the finance ministry, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressing reservations on the "same old set of names" being proposed.

According to officials, the PM has asked the finance ministry to consider more names before finalising the candidate. There are indications that on the new list, economists currently working in India would be preferred to Indian economists settled abroad. "He is asking why there are only a handful of candidates who are considered each time and why can't there be new names?," said an official who did not wish to be identified.

Among the names suggested by the finance ministry, noted economist Arvind Subramanian was considered a strong contender. Subramanian is presently a senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Center for Global Development, based in the US. The post has been vacant since Raghuram Rajan resigned about a year ago after he was appointed Reserve Bank governor. The Modi government's first Economy Survey, in July, was released without a CEA.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Oct 2014 07:17

Indian economy to grow by 6.4% in 2015-16 thanks to Modi dividend: World Bank

Modi Mangalam

Washington: Indian economy, which accounts for 80% of South Asia's output, is set to grow by 6.4% in 2015-16 as against 5.6% in 2014-15, the World Bank has said.With economic activity buoyed by expectations from the new elected government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, "India is benefiting from a "Modi dividend"," the Bank said in its twice-a-year South Asia Economic Focus report on Monday.Over the next year or so economic growth should be supported by the recovering US economy that would provide a market for Indian merchandise and service exports, it said.
"The outlook over the next years for South Asia indicates broad economic stability and a pick-up in growth with potential risks concentrated on the fiscal and structural reform side," said Martin Rama, chief economist for South Asia at the World Bank. "Future growth will increasingly depend on strong investment and export performance," he added.Private investment is expected to pick up thanks to the government's business orientation, and declining oil prices should boost private sector competitiveness.But economic reforms will be needed for India to achieve its full long-term growth potential, the report argued. The report said the region's economy will expand by a real 6% in 2015 and by 6.4% in 2016 compared to 5.4% this year, potentially making it the second fastest growing region in the world after East Asia and the Pacific.The Bank said India's long-term growth potential remains high due to favourable demographics, relatively high savings, and policies and efforts to improve skills and education, facilitate domestic market integration and incentivize manufacturing activities.In the medium term, with the economy still below potential and reforms on a gradualist path, growth is expected to accelerate from 5.6% in 2015 to 6.4% and 7% in 2016 and 2017.Inflation is expected to decline with monetary policy switching to inflation targeting while the current account deficit is expected to widen somewhat as import demand and capital inflows rise.Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue with stronger revenue mobilisation, while the oil subsidy burden could decline to 0.6% of GDP if benign global crude prices persist, it said.Supply chain delays and uncertainty are a major yet under-appreciated constraint to manufacturing growth and competitiveness in India, it said.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Oct 2014 08:39

First quarter GDP growth this fiscal year was 5.7% . Typically, Q1 is the weakest seasonal growth quarter. I think we can do substantially better than 5.6% for the full fiscal year, if the current macroeconomic situation persists. The investment cycle is picking up. Exports are rising. Inflation is moderating. Capital inflows are rising with foreigners showing particular interest in govt and PSU debt, indicating they feel interest rates will remain stable or fall. The main wild cards are external. If fuel prices remain subdued and the west doesn't have any major hiccups, we'll probably manage around 6.2-6.5% this year.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Oct 2014 09:43

Oil is expected to hit 75$ range in next 2 months. Every One Buck drop saves us Bundle of Billion.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 08 Oct 2014 17:07

^^^
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 0#p1715992

Global crude price reduction and domestic diesel price hike have led to a decline in combined daily under-recovery of oil marketing companies from Rs 230 crore for fortnight ended August 31 to Rs 195 crore for the fortnight effective September 1.

“Every $1 decline in crude prices brings down the current account deficit by about $1bn. The nearly $10 per barrel decline can therefore drive a substantial improvement in the current account,” said Neelkanth Mishra, India equity strategist at Credit Suisse.

The development will also give much needed comfort to the finance ministry as the Centre tries to meet the fiscal deficit target of 4.1 per cent in 2014-15.

“The fiscal deficit target seems much more achievable now than at the start of the year. While revenue from disinvestment will give a boost to the finances, on the expenditure side, savings from lower crude oil prices could help bring down the fuel subsidy bill,” said a government official.

The Union Budget had allocated Rs 63,427 crore as fuel subsidy in 2014-15. But over the last two months, global crude oil prices have been much lower.

For calculating the Budget Estimates, the finance ministry has taken global crude oil prices at $110 per barrel and the exchange rate at Rs 61 to the dollar.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Oct 2014 17:20

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/job ... 705059.cms

Hiring records 14% growth in September; jobs galore across sectors

NEW DELHI: The Indian job market registered 14 per cent growth during September as major sectors are on a revival mode and hiring activities have picked up across the board, says a report.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Oct 2014 09:33

GOI also seems to be doing all it can to clip the wings of the MOEF which had grown to gargantuan wingspan like Cthulhu in the 10 janpath era. this is needed to unlock mining and big-mortar projects that need large amts of land.

James B · Post by **James B** » 09 Oct 2014 15:07

Modi said to give Raghuram Rajan veto power to meet India’s CPI goal

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has proposed giving the central bank governor Raghuram Rajan veto power over a new monetary policy council that for the first time would focus on price stability as its main mission, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The finance ministry proposal calls for the formation of an eight-member committee headed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor and a deputy that includes one government nominee with no voting rights, according to two people who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. The RBI governor, a senior finance ministry bureaucrat and an outside expert will help pick the other five members, they said.

Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/PCAb2w ... ource=copy

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 09 Oct 2014 20:13

What is Indias position in terms of PPP as part of global PPP. Chini are first it seems.

member_28797 · Post by **member_28797** » 09 Oct 2014 20:35

ya arrah, the next target would be $17 trillion then ~20 trillion to become number 1

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Oct 2014 21:49

No, we overtook Japan in 2011. We've widened the lead substantially since then. Current estimates are:
#3 India $6,776B
#4 Japan $4667B
#5 Germany $3512B
#6 Russia $3491B
#7 Brazil $3012B
#8 France $2534B
#9 Indonesia $2389B
#10 Separated Kingdom $2320B

A period of strong growth in this term will result in us challenging US for #2 spot by early 2020s.

member_28797 · Post by **member_28797** » 09 Oct 2014 22:25

Suraj wrote:No, we overtook Japan in 2011. We've widened the lead substantially since then. Current estimates are:
#3 India $6,776B
#4 Japan $4667B
#5 Germany $3512B
#6 Russia $3491B
#7 Brazil $3012B
#8 France $2534B
#9 Indonesia $2389B
#10 Separated Kingdom $2320B

A period of strong growth in this term will result in us challenging US for #2 spot by early 2020s.

How much growth do we need to double our PPP to ~13 trillion in the next 5 years?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Oct 2014 22:29

A lot of it

Hard to say because PPP is 'someone else's metric'. My guess is a period of strong growth until 2019-20 will mean our PPP GDP is $12-14T then. This is not easy to measure; PRC was first supposed to catch up with US by 2020, then 2017, then 2015, and now it's already done so. We'll overtake the US when we overtake them, is all I can say.

member_28797 · Post by **member_28797** » 09 Oct 2014 22:36

Suraj wrote:A lot of it

Hard to say because PPP is 'someone else's metric'. My guess is a period of strong growth until 2019-20 will mean our PPP GDP is $12-14T then. This is not easy to measure; PRC was first supposed to catch up with US by 2020, then 2017, then 2015, and now it's already done so. We'll overtake the US when we overtake them, is all I can say.

True, true. I think many of the predictors fail to take into account the additional capabilities that a nation develops as it grows in economic power. If you extrapolated India's economy based on the level of expertise/money/talent pool it had even in 2001, the graph would've looked completely different.

Add to the fact that the last govt. didn't pass any major reforms in infrastructure, manufacturing, connectivity. Activities that would have substantially improved the economic output. Plus there were welfare leakages, scams and useless expenditures. Something that Modi/BJP govt. is working on.

Now the real race has begun

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 09 Oct 2014 23:05

It's time govt started taking decisions: Deepak Parekh

Do you share the general exuberance in industry about the new government?

I do not think the exuberance is irrational. The quarterly growth rate is higher; inflation is relatively low; commodity prices are falling; oil prices are the lowest in five years; the current account deficit level is comfortable; gold imports have come down and diesel subsidy has almost vanished.

We are just waiting for the government to say that diesel prices will be market-determined. We, in fact, expect diesel prices to come down after the state elections.

Do you see any dark spots?

Uncertainty hurts and, therefore, should go. It is time the government started taking decisions. For instance, coal. No one knows what is going to happen to coal (after the court decision on deallocation of mines). Coal India is making statements that it does not want to take those mines because it does not have staff to manage those. It does not have a chairman for a long time. These are not “big-bang reforms”.

Also, a decision on gas pricing has been postponed twice already. This means fertiliser and power plants do not get gas. How can you run a country like this? You have to move on. Take a decision, whatever it is. Look at BSNL, which is another Air India in the making. BSNL has accumulated losses of Rs 22,000 crore. MTNL is also suffering losses, though private telecom companies are making money. How long will government funds be used to pay the monthly salaries of Air India employees? These are the decisions that need to be taken.

What is your take on the ‘Make in India’ programme?

‘Make in India’ is a good idea, as it is aimed at boosting man............................

Worth reading. I appreciate all the programs already put in place, but I believe that the time has come for some big and quick impact action items like disinvestment, Coal policy, Gas pricing, Labor and land acquisition reforms. The sooner these get done the sooner we will see a big bump in economic growth. We needed these days before yesterday and any further delay is highly undesirable.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 09 Oct 2014 23:06

The key for us would be racing from per capita income of ~1500 to ~12,000 that is a 8 fold jump!!
The first 4 fold jump should be relatively easy and may take around 10-15 years (That is exactly what China did when they raced from 1 Tr to 6 Tr in 10 years I think)
Doubling from there would be difficult. May take another 10-12 years. So over all in 25 years we should be in a very good position economically

--Vamsee

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 10 Oct 2014 00:18

Crude oil going down is a fantastic opportunity for India. If we get 5 years of benign monsoon & oil prices, it would just change India forever.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Oct 2014 05:25

Vamsee wrote:The key for us would be racing from per capita income of ~1500 to ~12,000 that is a 8 fold jump!!The first 4 fold jump should be relatively easy and may take around 10-15 years (That is exactly what China did when they raced from 1 Tr to 6 Tr in 10 years I think)
Doubling from there would be difficult. May take another 10-12 years. So over all in 25 years we should be in a very good position economically-Vamsee

Before the economic Mini-Mohan & Maino Mayhem, india did quadrupling twice with 12 year cycle/s.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 10 Oct 2014 06:33

Crude oil going down is a fantastic opportunity for India. If we get 5 years of benign monsoon & oil prices, it would just change India forever.

Spare a tear for China, which beat India to oil plays around the world buying fields at inflated prices. (Of course your humble observer had predicted this). Very clever Chinese, very shrewd business men.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2014 07:04

getting into middle income status like thailand, brazil, malaysia should be relatively easy if Govt is good.

beyond that getting into high income status has 3 pathways:
-- resource rich very low population places like canada, australia - clearly thats not in our frame of reference
-- small TFTA 'tight discipline' places with small pop - singapore, HK - not feasible for us.
-- high technology upgradation in manufacturing and services - taiwan, korea, japan

only the 3rd method will work which needs a good base in higher education and industrial r&d to even start off.

many nations are caught in the middle income trap unable to make this transition.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 10 Oct 2014 09:40

I think it has become clear that there is limit to how high the South & West/NW can carry India. For India to join the High Middle income group, $12,000 per capita, we will need places like Rajasthan, MP, UP Bihar, etc to catch up to Maha, Gj, TN, Andhra, Haryana, etc.

Right now income levels are as follows per Planning Commission data.
http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/d ... le_160.pdf

Bihar 33,459
MP 44,989
UP 33,137
Assam 46,354

vs

Haryana 135,007
TN 112,428
Delhi 219,978

Sadly, it is not even in the same ball park. If one charts relative over time the first group is falling further behind and not showing much of a catch up.

Delhi needs to double just once and it will be tantalizingly in the $8,000 per capita middle income range. TN. MH, Haryana, GJ etc need to double twice and they too will be in the same range.

But UP, MP, Bihar, etc will need to double ~ 4 times to get there. This is what is slowing down our rate of doubling to a crawl.

It is hard to believe this but UP now has a smaller SDP than TN or GJ.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 10 Oct 2014 10:20

Grouth rate of MP is quite good and it can catch up sooner than later. I am worried about UP and Bihar. BIMARU states will BIARU or BIU is Rajathan picks up. We seriously need UP and Bihar to do well.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Oct 2014 11:55

Reuters India ‏@ReutersIndia 58m58 minutes ago

Bombay High Court rules in favour of Vodafone in transfer pricing case - TV

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 10 Oct 2014 12:17

Vamsee wrote:Crude oil going down is a fantastic opportunity for India. If we get 5 years of benign monsoon & oil prices, it would just change India forever.

Why do you think the oil price is falling?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2014 12:21

eastern UP and Bihar with some adjoining areas of jharkhand, chattisgarh and northern MP and MH represent the biggest development challenge. on top of it, two dysfunctional Govts are in charge who will resist even any well meaning moves.
this mass of 350 million people are 25% of indian pop and act like a boat anchor on our speed.

I think for start, agriculture itself has to be made more productive because that figure is way too high to absorb in urbanization and industry/services. improve roads, power, security, water pumps with purifiers in all villages, good dispensaries, better govt education, prevent girls being married off too early (raise marriage age to 21 and come down with a boot on violators)...its a slow process to drain the swamp and dry up the mess.

on top of that is exploding BD population in north bengal and millions of jobless Nepal citizens who look for work in india.