Perspectives on the global economic changes

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Apr 2016 09:10

Neshant wrote:China's share of he SDR at the IMF is being increased.

A clue as to what's to come.

What would that be , elevating the SDR as Reserve in next crisis ?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Apr 2016 09:13

Not sure how much reliable the data is but

TOP 10 Countries with Most Natural Resources in the World

http://www.countrydetail.com/top-10-cou ... ces-world/

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 25 Apr 2016 11:51

My guess is the US is going to take the USD off the world reserve currency status to inflate away its debts & liabilities. There is simply no way they are going to pay 20 trillion at the current dollar value. However this can't be done if China keeps its currency pegged to the US dollar.

The new reserve role will thus be transferred to the SDR.

US needs China not to devalue its yuan when this happens as the USD will plummet in value. In return for not devaluing the yuan and for not creating a parallel IMF-like institution that undermines western predatory capitalism of the third world, China is being offered a larger controlling share of the SDR/IMF.

With the SDR in place, a balanced trade regime will be enforced whereby countries will not get to over-produce and accumulate large surpluses nor over-consume and run up large deficits.

In short, its another idiotic hare brained scheme that will end in ruin. Keep accumulating the real money as that is all that will matter in the end once the SDR runs amuck.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Apr 2016 16:08

Neshant wrote:My guess is the US is going to take the USD off the world reserve currency status to inflate away its debts & liabilities. There is simply no way they are going to pay 20 trillion at the current dollar value. However this can't be done if China keeps its currency pegged to the US dollar.

Well they have to pay the interest for most part not the debt and they will put the printing press to good use as they have been doing so for quite some time , After all Debt is just a number on the computer these days and Japan debt today is 250 % of GDP but they are surviving

The new reserve role will thus be transferred to the SDR.

What happens to the other reserve currency then Euro , Yen , Pound ?

In short, its another idiotic hare brained scheme that will end in ruin. Keep accumulating the real money as that is all that will matter in the end once the SDR runs amuck.

As in Gold ?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Apr 2016 19:00

The World Economy Has Stopped Growing And Is Headed Into A Depression - David Stockman

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 26 Apr 2016 18:40

Neshant wrote:My guess is the US is going to take the USD off the world reserve currency status to inflate away its debts & liabilities. There is simply no way they are going to pay 20 trillion at the current dollar value. However this can't be done if China keeps its currency pegged to the US dollar.

The new reserve role will thus be transferred to the SDR.

US needs China not to devalue its yuan when this happens as the USD will plummet in value. In return for not devaluing the yuan and for not creating a parallel IMF-like institution that undermines western predatory capitalism of the third world, China is being offered a larger controlling share of the SDR/IMF.

With the SDR in place, a balanced trade regime will be enforced whereby countries will not get to over-produce and accumulate large surpluses nor over-consume and run up large deficits.

In short, its another idiotic hare brained scheme that will end in ruin. Keep accumulating the real money as that is all that will matter in the end once the SDR runs amuck.

I sort of agree with you here.

FOFOA wrote:My basic approach to the SDR is, who cares? It doesn't matter. It would be worse than irrelevant, it would be superfluous. It's just marginal speculation by people who haven't thought things all the way through. First of all, the SDR is only a unit of account, by design. If they make it into something else, then it's no longer a true SDR. It's something else. Might as well call it a bancor or whatever. If you hold an SDR, you hold drawing rights to a basket of currencies, but the SDR itself is nothing but a unit of account used to calculate how much of any one of the individual currencies in the basket it is worth. If you ask for one of those currencies, they will likely be printed for you by that currency's issuer and his SDR count will increase.
Even on the outside chance that an SDR or a similar super-sovereign currency is accepted as the new global reserve currency, it would have to contain gold at ridiculous fiat (take your pick!) valuations in order to be viable, accepted and trusted. So any way you cut it, the future comes to us with really high value gold by today's standards.
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"Virtual reserve currency" means something—like the SDR—that's primarily a unit of account for the purpose of providing monetary stability. But with the primary and secondary media of exchange becoming separate but symbiotic counterparts, stability will be automatically achieved, and a "commodity-based" super-sovereign unit of account comparing fiat M3 with a centrally managed gold price will be completely superfluous and unnecessary (i.e., as unused as the SDR).

The point is, there's a turn-key problem-solving system waiting in the wings. So whenever you hear anyone in the hard money camp or the Anglo-American press talking about something that sounds like the SDR with "gold backing" (watch out for that word "backing") don't buy it for a second. They simply don't have the full picture and, therefore, don't know what they're talking about when it comes to macro solutions. But even so, they're still right when they recommend that you get your butt out of that reclining black office chair and take personal responsibility for your wealth.
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So, the point about currency is, and mainly for those of you that fret over a NWO currency, or "whatever currency," an Amero or SDR or euro-whatzit... chill TF out! Currency is no big deal. Currency is not the issue that matters here. What matters is what we, as a planet, choose to save.
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The point is, once "Freegold" (nature's wrath) inflicts itself upon us all, it won't really matter what is chosen/used as the super-sovereign or supra-national currency to lubricate international trade. It could be the euro, the yuan, the SDR, Facebook Credits or even the dollar! Triffin's dilemma will be gone. And you shouldn't worry so much over the transactional currency question, because that will be chosen through the market forces of regression, the network effect and game theory's focal point discovery at the international level.

So often in commentaries (like Jim Rickards recent one) that propose a “solution”, the author is strangely obsessed with the notion of replacing the dollar (as a reserve currency unit) with simply another institutional emission of similar ilk (such as currencies of other nations, SDRs, bancors and whatnot). Their avoidance of any meaningful discussion of the most obvious remedy is almost pathological in the extreme. To be sure, we don’t need to invent any manner of universal reserve currency to fill the role of a unit of account because that role is already served in a fully functional capacity for any given country by its own monetary unit.

What IS desperately needed, however, is a universally respected reserve asset capable of filling our current void with a reliable presence that serves as a store of value. And far from needing to be conjured or created by complex international committees, that asset is already in existence and held in goodly store by central bankers and prudent individuals around the world — it’s known as gold. From amid the ruins of a chaotic financial crisis that was brought about by its own complexity, a degree of sanity will prevail, and gold as a freely floating asset will arise in stature as THE important element of global monetary reserves. The floating aspect is the vital evolutionary improvement over all previous structural monetary failures which tried to use a gold standard at a fixed price (i.e., unit of account) perversely joined to the very elastic money supply of any given country’s banking system.

If it interests you, read this essay Link

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 28 Apr 2016 06:37

A few new things from Jim Rickards in this interview..

Someone is going to be left holding the bag.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 29 Apr 2016 05:36

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 29 Apr 2016 05:42

The Tokyo Whale Is Quietly Buying Up Huge Stakes in Japan Inc.

BOJ is an estimated top 10 owner in about 90% of Nikkei 225
Central bank seen boosting ETF purchases as soon as this week

While the Bank of Japan’s name is nowhere to be found in regulatory filings on major stock investors, the monetary authority’s exchange-traded fund purchases have made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90 percent of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg from public data.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 29 Apr 2016 19:11

A New Way Of Mapping The World By An Indian Global Strategist - Parag Khanna
Six maps that will make you rethink the world
By By Ana Swanson

We don’t often question the typical world map that hangs on the walls of classrooms — a patchwork of yellow, pink and green that separates the world into more than 200 nations. But Parag Khanna, a global strategist, says that this map is, essentially, obsolete.
Khanna is the author of the new book “Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization,” in which he argues that the arc of global history is undeniably bending toward integration. Instead of the boundaries that separate sovereign nations, the lines that we should put on our maps are the high-speed railways, broadband cables and shipping routes that connect us, he says. And instead of focusing on nation-states, we should focus on the dozens of mega-cities that house most of the world’s people and economic growth.

spoke with Khanna about several of the incredible maps from his book, which he uses to illustrate some proposals for our future world that might, at first glance, seem pretty far out — like dividing the United States into seven economic mega-regions or politically integrating North America. But with the world rapidly changing and urbanizing, these proposals might be the best way to confront a radically different future.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

One of the most impressive maps in your book is the map of the world’s mega-cities. You say that by 2030, more than 70 percent of people will live in cities, and that these cities matter a lot more than the countries that they’re in. What does this map tell us?

This is the most accurate map that’s ever been made of where people are and the economic value of what they do. Our team took the entire world’s population and plotted it by density, and they superimposed the largest urban archipelagos, the mega-cities, with those ovals to show the value of those cities vis-à-vis the national economy. [Note: You can click on the maps to enlarge them.]
The map tells us that the world economy is much more structured according to the gravity of these 40 or 50 megacities than the world’s 200 sovereign nations. In almost all countries, cities have all the economic mass and most of the population, and people are moving to cities by the hundreds of millions.

The map from your book that’s probably received the most attention is the United States broken down into seven economic mega-regions, all of which are driven by urban centers. You say that a high-speed railway could connect these cities, creating a “United City-States of America.” Why do you think we need to reorganize this way?

These seven colorful patches are the natural topography and economic geography of the United States. It separates the U.S. into areas that focus on farming, automobile manufacturing, technology, finance, tourism, national parks, etc. Each of those regions has an urban anchor that serves as a financial and business center, a population center and a transportation hub. That’s what those white patches are. Then we need the black lines, which are the high-speed rail networks and freight railways connecting these regions to each other.

We need to rethink the political and functional geography in the United States. It’s kind of ridiculous that we use 200-year-old logic to govern the economics and functional reality of day-to-day life in our country. Of course, we do it for votes — having 50 states is great if you’re running around in a primary. But it doesn’t help you make America a more viable or competitive economy.

A good example of "out of the box" thinking !

But this reorganization is so dramatic – could we even do this?

We have the ability to do this. I hate to make the punch line something that’s so banal, which is “It’s all Congress's’ fault,” but it’s all Congress’s fault. All Congress has to do is to make sure that instead of district- and state-level pork barrel project spending, projects have some kind of cross-border dimensions, so that American citizens, whatever state they live in, can be better connected ...

Right now, the political conversation in the United States and elsewhere seems to be more focused on the rejection of free trade and of immigrants, and uncertainties about the future of transnational projects like Eurozone. How does that jibe with your overall theory that the world is becoming far more connected and integrated?

We have to distinguish between what some people in politics are saying, and what the reality is. We can’t treat the fact that Donald Trump has an idea about a wall, or that Bernie Sanders is against certain trade agreements, as reality. Almost every syllable that you hear in the populist discourse is wrong.
In the real world right now, we have more trade, more immigration, more cross-border investment than at any point in history...
When an American car manufacturer relocates some production to Mexico, yes, some jobs are moved. However, the car manufacturer is able to stay solvent, because it saves costs and builds more cars, and built into the agreement is a requirement that North American suppliers are preferred for that automobile plant
Speaking of these connections between the U.S. and Mexico, one of your maps shows how North America is increasingly integrated. I know you mention in your book that the U.S.-Mexico border is the most frequently traversed border in the world, and the U.S.-Canada border is also extremely busy. Why is North America so integrated?

One of the titles I’ve given the map is ‘Think geology, not nationality.’ America is now suddenly the largest oil producer in the world. The American energy revolution is the most significant geopolitical event since the end of the Cold War, and it’s a major shift in the world’s tug of war. Ten years ago, we were all talking about how the United States and China were going to fight resource wars for Middle Eastern oil and minerals in Africa. Now, thanks to this incredible seismic revolution, we’re selling oil to China instead.

But not to forget, that in all this synergies, integration etc, the average six pack Joe ( ie the Aam Abdul of Amreeka ) is increasingly being sidelined by the bid multi-nationals and hence the political clamour for "change"

The reason this relates to North America is because, if you think about strategy in the geological terms, you realize that if the U.S., Canada and Mexico unite their energy, water, agriculture and labor resources, you create a continental empire that is more powerful than America is. I’ve not even mentioned the Arctic, which of course Canada controls half of, which is becoming a very strategic geography as the Arctic ice melts

You mentioned the issue of climate change and food production. One of the most fascinating maps in the book shows how global considerations might change if the world becomes four degrees Celsius warmer. Much of the United States becomes uninhabitable desert, while cities and food-growing zones shift to Canada.

This is a map by the New Scientist, a very respected British journal. They made this forecast of where global food production would be relocated to if the world rises four degrees Celsius above the 1990 baseline, which of course the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses. Where today the world’s largest food producers are the United States, Brazil, China, India, Australia and so forth, it could be that 30 years from now or less, the world’s largest food producers are Canada and Russia.

The USA is fast becoming a water -deficit nation and is increasingly eyeing the huge water resources of Canada ; as has been said, water is becoming the "new oil " !

You also have a map that looks at “The New Arctic Geography.” This isn’t a view of the world that a lot of people are used to looking at, but something they will need to get more used to over the next decades. What is the importance of this region and these shipping lanes?

They play a very significant role in geopolitics. The world has four significant maritime choke points, three of which are geopolitically sensitive — the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca. We have feared for 100 years that there could be an act of terrorism or war that would block one of these choke points and disrupt global trade and energy flows.

But Arctic shipping is a faster and better system. Tragic as climate change is, it opens up these new passageways to Europe, to North America, into the Hudson Bay. So the way into the heart of North America may eventually be these Arctic shipping routes.

Russia, USA, Canada, Denmark and other nations are starting to assert their "territorial claim" in this vital area !

Let me ask you about your map of Eurasia’s “new Silk Roads,” which shows some of the projects being built by the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. You also describe competitive connectivity as the next arms race. Compared with the United States, is China really winning the battle for connectivity?

This map of the new Silk Roads shows the railways, pipelines and so forth that are going to be built by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other organizations across much of Eurasia. Right now, Europe’s trade with China is almost the same as Europe’s trade with America. Just imagine how big that economic bloc will be when all of those trade corridors are complete and you have seamless transportation between Europe and Asia.

China is way ahead in this connectivity game ; for eg, the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and China's use of its "taller than mountain fliend" for its own strategic purposes !

America definitely took the wrong approach, which was to try to block the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

But what China has shown is that infrastructure is an equally important public good. Hundreds of countries desperately need and want infrastructure, and China is the world’s leading provider of that.
In the book, I have so many examples of why we should let China go ahead and build all of these things, but we should be competing for the lucrative value-added deals. We don’t have millions of American construction workers to export to Africa. (but China does !) But when those countries finally start to use their connectivity to build factories that are making useful things, we should be the ones financing the deals and selling the technologies. China builds up the world, and we get to benefit from the growth of those markets.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 Apr 2016 20:26

Neshant wrote:A few new things from Jim Rickards in this interview..

Someone is going to be left holding the bag.

I saw most part of video , he is a proponent of gold but he says don't keep more than 10% of assets in gold , which is contradictory in itself and he keep saying Gold is Real Wealth !

He is advocating SDR as the universal wealth

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 30 Apr 2016 22:05

I don't think he's advocating SDRs.

Just giving his opinion on what comes next in the private bank controlled monetary scheme.

He definitely fears being wrong on the gold trade and is worried that he might be blamed by droves of followers if things don't turn out as he predicts. Either that or he fears idiots will make leveraged bets on gold in the short term and get margin called into bankruptcy.

The fact that China's proportion of the SDR has been increased recently however suggests that things are at least partially headed in the direction he describes.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 May 2016 17:25

Neshant wrote:He definitely fears being wrong on the gold trade and is worried that he might be blamed by droves of followers if things don't turn out as he predicts. Either that or he fears idiots will make leveraged bets on gold in the short term and get margin called into bankruptcy.

I would personally think keeping atleast 25 % in Gold would be best bet

The fact that China's proportion of the SDR has been increased recently however suggests that things are at least partially headed in the direction he describes.

Isnt that something China deserve rightfully as it is 3rd largest economy by nominal GDP ?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 May 2016 17:27

Interview with Jim Rogers

Fed pushing us to financial catastrophe worse than 2008 - billionaire investor

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 03 May 2016 19:36

Superb stuff from Mr Rogers.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 04 May 2016 10:41

I would personally think keeping atleast 25 % in Gold would be best bet

I like those odds.

Isnt that something China deserve rightfully as it is 3rd largest economy by nominal GDP ?

By all means, free float the currency.
But why should their accumulated IOUs aka US dollar stock pile have to be honored by other nations via the SDR?
They are looking for a way to offload what will turn out to be a depreciating asset except they want it honored at some exchange rate which does not reflect it's dissolving value.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 May 2016 16:48

Neshant wrote: By all means, free float the currency.
But why should their accumulated IOUs aka US dollar stock pile have to be honored by other nations via the SDR?
They are looking for a way to offload what will turn out to be a depreciating asset except they want it honored at some exchange rate which does not reflect it's dissolving value.

If Chinese Free Float the Yuan then chances are it will depreciate against the USD , It will get weaker this is some thing what we saw even during the Stock Crash recently , they were defending the Yuan.

Now if Yuan depreciates it would be a case of Begger thy neighbour , Other countries would try to depreciate their currency and we might just see a currency war and race to bottom.

The chinese have indeed said they will free float the Renminbi but gradually by 2020 , I still think the Yuan will depreciate a lot until between now and 2020 we see a major crisis and the other reserve currency takes a major beating , probably then Yuan might find some new value.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 May 2016 10:22

panduranghari wrote:Superb stuff from Mr Rogers.

Some how he is not very positive about India , He says something like If you want to visit 1 country in your lifetime visit India but not to invest here , he is vary about the worst bureaucracy India has that learnt it from English

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 May 2016 09:41

CNN Money: Famed investor sounds the crisis alarm on U.S., China

A debt-fueled disaster could be coming to the U.S. and China.

That's what legendary money manager Stanley Druckenmiller warned a roomful of top investors on Wednesday in New York City.

Druckenmiller is very concerned about all the debt Beijing binged on over the past decade. He pointed to China spending trillions of dollars on stimulus projects that led to overcapacity.

China is in the midst of an "extremely rare and quite dangerous" explosion of debt, argued Druckenmiller, whose fortune Forbes estimates at $4.4 billion. He compared the situation with "subprime mania" in the U.S. back in the mid-2000s, adding: "We know how that ended."

"They do not need more debt or more houses. They already have way too much of each," Druckenmiller said while speaking at the 21st Annual Sohn Investment Conference.

Druckenmiller saved his harshest criticism for the Federal Reserve and its ultra low interest rates. He accused the U.S. central bank of shortsighted tactics, borrowing from the future and trying to "spoon feed" the stock market.

"The Fed has no end game," he said. "The Fed's objective seems to be making sure the S&P goes another six months without a 20% decline."

Druckenmiller fears the Fed's "extreme dovishness" has backfired by removing pressure on politicians to tackle entitlement and tax reform.

Druckenmiller also railed against "reckless" behavior from CEOs who spend trillions on share buybacks and mergers and acquisitions instead of investing in the future. He believes the valuations in the market are extremely pricey at a time when global growth is anemic.

Given that scary forecast, it's not surprising that the only asset class Druckenmiller sounded positive on is gold. The yellow metal, which does well when people are scared, has been on fire this year.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 06 May 2016 17:18

I think that Fed has done its job to prevent panic induced collapse. But Fed cannot achieve two contradictory aims, one is to achieve full employment and other is to keep asset prices constantly high. If asset prices are kept constantly high/growing then their affordability will fall and demand will start falling. Hence the Fed has to deflate the bubble a little by raising interest rates to slightly below normal ie upto around 1.5% per annum. Which I don't see happening, as it much easier to inflate away to glory and kick the can down the road.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 07 May 2016 07:45

The View from The Pento-gon

Mike Pento weighs in...

He makes a good point about Puerto Rico not being able to print away its debt (bonds) like countries with central banks. PR defaulted on its bonds and just prior to that, its bond yields went ballistic. That's actually the honest way to default on bad govt debt.

The dishonest way is to print money and steal from others to pay bond holders who should be losing their shirts.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 07 May 2016 15:11

Austin wrote:
Some how he is not very positive about India , He says something like If you want to visit 1 country in your lifetime visit India but not to invest here , he is vary about the worst bureaucracy India has that learnt it from English

In what way do you disagree with him about investing in India? What are you looking for in your investments? Double your money? Maintain your purchasing power? Quadruple your nest egg?

People like Rogers, Stan Druckenmiller et al are billionaires. They think about these things differently.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 7#p1868147

From our perspective, we have to think what is big money doing? Its like we are waiting at the bus stop and there we just miss the bus. We think that another one will come. Soon a big crowd gathers as everyone is waiting for the bus, everyone hoping the bus will soon come. It takes a long time for it to sink in that another bus ain't coming along. And any bus that does come along wont be able to accommodate the number of people waiting at the bus stop. It will cause a riot. The best bet is to be at the beginning of the queue so that you get into the bus before the riot starts. Those who have travelled on suburban Mumbai locals will empathise. This is the mentality of a bank run. This is different from the big money. Big money guy is not used to be kept waiting. He owns the bus company and he knows there will not be another bus coming. They panic early unlike the little guy. This was the main reason why the governments all around the world stepped in to bail out the banks when there was an electronic bank run post Lehmann collapse. The big money was not prepared. Do you really think the big money is not prepared this time around? There are no markets left, just interventions.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 08 May 2016 05:21

When Jim Rogers and his much younger wife was touring India, some guy pinched his younger wife on her bottom.

Jim grabbed him held him in a head lock and shouted "call the police".

In every interview, he seems to be out of breath when he speaks.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 08 May 2016 09:18

Austin wrote:Some how he is not very positive about India , He says something like If you want to visit 1 country in your lifetime visit India but not to invest here , he is vary about the worst bureaucracy India has that learnt it from English

The guy is a Grade A moron - a fact long recognized on BRF ! Just search on BRF forum using his name as keyword...

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 08 May 2016 10:59

Arjun,
You are showing your standard by making a claim which itself is based on a claim of someone else who has based it on the claim. Basically your opinion is a derivative which cannot stand on its own.

You could very well be the derivatives expert of BRF. Congratulations on your promotion.

If you can show a clear reason why he is a moron, I would change my opinion. But, its got to be sincere.

If your claim is a theory, it should be a good theory. If its a speculation, it should be a reasonable speculation. If its a supposition, it has to be well grounded.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 08 May 2016 12:31

Yeah, I know he is one of the patron saints of the "doomsday investing" crowd that is present in some strength on this forum. My opinion about most of these Austrian-school followers is quite similar.

The reason Jim Rogers is even more of a class apart is his regular long-China, short-India, short-US, long-commodities, long-gold chant that he has consistently stuck to like a broken clock for the last three decades or more.

Then there are of course his bizarre and moronic political views...check out his prediction regarding India in 2001.

Anyways, good article here on the world of the doomsday investor: Wall Street Apocalypse: The World of the Doomsday Investors

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 09 May 2016 04:10

The problem may not be with Jim Rogers or similar contrarian celebrity investors, but with the tendency (of people, media etc.) to elevate such people (who once became successful in a specific investment area or investment strategy) to a celebrity level. Just because they are/were successful, does not mean "everything" they say (includes predictions) must be true. Such celebrity investors, and some Nobel laureates, are also in part to blame because they tend to fall prey to one of the fallacies (can't think of the name) that makes them think that they should have strong opinions on everything under the sun and they should be taken seriously.

Jim Rogers and his predictions on India ..(not sure when the article was posted)

<snip>
India as we know it will not survive another 30 or 40 years. This of course does not have to end in disaster, but it probably will given the chauvinism of its government and the way history has always worked.

Now, what experience does Jim Rogers has on India, let alone be in a position to make a 30 or 40 year prediction? Does that mean everything he says including views on current state of affairs is incorrect? He has made some good points about debt levels in the developed countries, currency manipulations etc etc, but that does not make him an expert on India, let alone make predictions.

If that were untrue, Meredith Whitney would have be been a rock star predicting Municipal bond market defaults Critics decry analyst's forecast of muni bond defaults or Nobel laureates of LTCM would have turned the ship around even bad liquidity times.

*Added later
Jim Rogers in 2013, on why he thought oil/gold/commodities would go higher...

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 09 May 2016 04:13

panduranghari wrote: If your claim is a theory, it should be a good theory. If its a speculation, it should be a reasonable speculation. If its a supposition, it has to be well grounded.

And exactly how many of your the end is nigh posts fall in that category ?

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 09 May 2016 06:43

Here you go....more frrreeee money a revolutionary new idea called UBI – Universal Basic Income. (Bill Gross: Monthly Investment Outlook)

Culture Clash

What should the policy response be? Retraining and education sound practical and are at the head of every politician’s promised ticket for the yellow brick road, but to be honest folks, I doubt that much of it will be worth the expense. Four years of college for everyone might better prepare them to be a contestant on Jeopardy, but I doubt it’ll create more growth; for the Universities perhaps, but not many good jobs for the students. Instead we should spend money where it’s needed most – our collapsing infrastructure for instance, health care for an aging generation and perhaps on a revolutionary new idea called UBI – Universal Basic Income. If more and more workers are going to be displaced by robots, then they will need money to live on, will they not? And if that strikes you as a form of socialism, I would suggest we get used to it. Even Donald Trump claims he won’t leave anyone out on the street – a liberal Republican thought if there ever was one. And they are on the street you know. Check out any major downtown in the U.S. if you want to see our future culture. Not the stadiums with the box seats; the streets with the tents and grocery carts. But the concept of UBI is not really new or foreign to capitalistic cultures like that of the U.S. We already have sort of a UBI floor. It’s called food stamps and the earned-income tax credit, but those alone will not keep the growing jobless and homeless off city and suburban streets. The question is how high this UBI should be and how to pay for it, not whether it’s coming in the next decade. It is. Strangely, the concept is endorsed more by conservatives than liberals and in Silicon Valley as well. Even with a theoretical $10,000 UBI per eligible citizen, the cost of $1-2 trillion dollars is seen as an income pool to consume many of the high tech products they produce.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 May 2016 12:16

This "Recovery" Has Been Worse Than The Recession For Most People

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 May 2016 13:30

David Stockman The World Economy Is Heading Into Epochal Deflation

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 09 May 2016 17:56

Universal Basic Income is a scheme to mask the thievery by private banks from the productive people of society. This thievery is impoverishing vast segments of society. To mask this disastrous outcome, banks are getting govt to steal from the other half of society to subsidize the ones they are stealing from.

Banking is a scam not an industry producing anything of value in society. Since it produces nothing of value, it has to steal value from others to keep itself in business. The more banking expands, the worse off the productive economy becomes and the more hare brain schemes like the one above are put forward to mask the destruction of the productive economy.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 09 May 2016 18:27

What gets the Indian investors goat is when a foreigner says go short India. They feel the foreigner is putting us down. If we put this emotional bias bit aside, then we realise what the foreigner says is from the perspective of his return of investment. Rogers putting India down is good- because he sees no possibility of crony capitalistic exploitation via the FII. Remember it was Faber who was asking where are the big ticket reform items in India. He meant when is Modi going to privatise loss making PSU industries?

These chaps with big cheque books, with backing of huge banks and even deeper personal pockets, are in it to make a quick buck. They do not care if Indians go to the dogs.

Saying that what Rogers says is from the perspective of how the current economic crisis is evolving and how will India fare in relation to this. If you have personal investments in the stocks and you are hoping that it will be a parabolic rise in the returns, you are going to be willing to ride out with expected downturns. The swings, as the interventions become more frequent, will make even the experienced professional investor scared.

If Rogers says India is a sell as of now, it does not mean anything. It only means he has no opportunity to exploit and opening. And why are these guys so long China? Because CCP permits exploitation as long as they are also making a buck.

Separate the emotion from the investment thesis and you shall be a better investor- said Jesse Livermore. And he knew a thing or two about investing in stocks.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 09 May 2016 20:07

Pandurangahari, seems to me you are being incredibly naive....the problem is not with Jim Rogers wanting to short India, the problem is that based on his track record he is proven to be (and what follows are not my words but those of Mike Stathis of Ava Research)...a DUMBASS, "loud mouthed idiot", moron and clown.

Why do you think he is any different from any of the other dime-a-dozen doomsday, gold-priming charlatans out there?

Here's what Mike Stathis (Mike Stathis Message to Jim Rogers - You are a Dumbass) has to say:

For years now, the financial media has treated Jim Rogers as if he were some demigod of investing.

But have you ever wondered why, after all of these years, Jim Rogers has not only never revealed his investment performance, but not a single one of the pinhead ass kissers who interviews him has ever asked to see it?

The fact is Rogers is in the same camp as the rest of the broken clock doomsday douchebags, who make their money from marketing and promotional activities, not from real investing.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 09 May 2016 20:14

A link to a fantastic video that exposes Jim Rogers.

http://content.screencast.com/users/AVA ... xposed.mp4

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 May 2016 16:09

Arjun wrote:A link to a fantastic video that exposes Jim Rogers.

http://content.screencast.com/users/AVA ... xposed.mp4

Even if some one does not agree with Jim and in some way I dont , Its very Disgusting ,very Vulgar and very bad in taste to post such video that is nothing but very abusive video

I am sure we dont post such videos at BRF , I suggest you remove that video

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 10 May 2016 17:23

Dunno...do we actually want MORE innocent folks to be suckered by con-artists like Jim Rogers? I think its upto the admins to take a call.

I don't like the profanities that Mike Stathis uses and nor do I approve or agree with his comments on the 'Jewish Mafia'...but his substance regarding Jim Rogers seems to be very much on the dot.

If it helps we can stick to the substance of Mike Stathis' evaluation... Jim Rogers' message has been the same for the last what quarter century, right ? Buy China, Buy commodities, buy Russia, buy gold, sell stocks, sell US, sell India ? Can you educate me on what timeframe of investment he has been talking about all these years? Has he run any investment fund after he came out of Quantum many decades back and what are the returns from his fund? What are the objective grounds on which you want to judge his performance on?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 May 2016 20:05

Well we dont know how much investment he has made or what profit he has made so far , He is like one of the many analyst who has his POV , one might agree or disagree with his views.

Its upto people to listen to him and buy sell of what he says or just ignore him.

I certainly want to keep 25 % asset in physical gold and get out of share Markets in India but thats me. Had it not been this thread I would have not invested even 1 % in Gold and I dont regret with the advice I have heard from panduranghari , neshant and other posters here and the comments video posted here but thats just me.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 May 2016 20:06

here is Rajan

RBI Governor Rajan Says 'Helicopter Money' No Panacea

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/art ... topstories

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 11 May 2016 06:41

Austin wrote: He is like one of the many analyst who has his POV , one might agree or disagree with his views.

Its upto people to listen to him and buy sell of what he says or just ignore him.

Quite true and in general a philosophy I agree with...There are many broken clocks out there and even broken clocks get the time right twice a day.

Occasionally a few of these economist-analyst-nincompoops overreach themselves and start pontificating on matters way beyond their limited abilities - eg Amartya Sen or Jim Rogers. Those are red flags right there...