Perspectives on the global economic changes

[Neshant]

Once a pack of banking gundas get control of the money printing press and set up a system that benefits themselves & their cronies, freedom comes to an end. Tyranny is the only way such a system of theft can continue to exist.

India should never allow the creation of a banking mafia with its tentacles reaching into govt. to control the money printing press. However as things go, govt eventually becomes packed with the ex-employees of these private banks who like a virus then go about doing their ex-employers bidding.

________________________________________________________________

Fed's Fischer sees little benefit in breaking up too-big banks

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/feds- ... -container

By Richard Valdmanis

CAMBRIDGE Mass (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's new vice chair all but dismissed the idea of breaking up the largest U.S. banks, saying on Thursday it is unclear that such a complex task would help stabilize the country's financial system.

In his most detailed speech on financial regulation since becoming the Fed's No. 2 official, Stanley Fischer also floated the idea of adding a financial stability mandate (better known as taxpayer funded banker bailouts) to all of the U.S. regulators under the umbrella of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), a coordinating committee.

[TSJones]

The question is why do still companies and countries issue debt which is under a foreign court?

....because that is where the bonds are underwritten and marketed.

[svinayak]

Fed's Fischer sees little benefit in breaking up too-big banks

CAMBRIDGE Mass (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's new vice chair all but dismissed the idea of breaking up the largest U.S. banks, saying on Thursday it is unclear that such a complex task would help stabilize the country's financial system.

This is more likely a protection racket for the mafia group.
If they dont have a future roadmap they will just stop and keep the same structure. They dont know where they are going and this creates risk. They dont want to add to the risk.

[Austin]

George Magnus on Chinese economy & Eswar Prasad on possible Asian currency war

http://rt.com/shows/boom-bust/171976-po ... rency-war/

[Austin]

Nice Talk by Thom Hartman "The Crash of 2016"

[Neshant]

^^ i don't quite agree with that guy

[Neshant]

[Austin]

^^ i don't quite agree with that guy

On which points you dont agree or you dont agree on any thing what he states ?

[Austin]

BIS Speaks

BIS chief fears fresh Lehman from worldwide debt surge

[akashganga]

Nice Talk by Thom Hartman "The Crash of 2016"

This is a good video presentation. I essentially agree with the author. I think as long as democrats are in control they will somehow prevent major crash of stock markets or even other asset classes such as housing. If in 2016 elections a conservative republican wins presidency there is a major chance of huge crash of asset prices across the globe. It would be interesting if in 2014 mid term democrats loose both house and senate. In that case republicans will create scenario for major crash in 2016 to gain advantage in presidential elections. My 2 cents.

[panduranghari]

BIS Speaks

BIS chief fears fresh Lehman from worldwide debt surge

People will disregard it as usual. BIS warned before 2007 crash. BIS warned before tech bust. BIS warned before TOkyo housing bust.

[Austin]

The Implosion Is Near: Signs Of The Bubble’s Last Days

[Austin]

People will disregard it as usual. BIS warned before 2007 crash. BIS warned before tech bust. BIS warned before TOkyo housing bust.

Is it so , I didnt follow the previous event too well.

[panduranghari]

[panduranghari]

23 Charts prove the stocks are heading for crash

[Austin]

Makes good read

Why The Status-Quo Is Unsustainable: Interest and Debt (What Yellen Won't Tell You)

[svinayak]

German Government spends a lot on Training it's workforce. It even pays for German Language Classes and partners with industry to transform factories to new tooling and trains the existing workforce to prevent job loses. New Energy Programs get 5 years Interest Free Loans for Start Ups to prove their technology and business model like in Bio-fuel or Alcohol Stills (Actually Brazil and many countries do this last one.
Germany is Rising and the USA has lost most export markets except for Oil Refining and other Oil & Gas work. Germany Enjoys a strong Economy due to a "De Facto Mercantilism".

[TSJones]

US house hold debt to income has gone down. This tells the story:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/

This jives with recent news concerning flat sale rate at Walmart and closing down casinos at Atlantic city. People just aren't spending. Demand is flat.

Also US government debt to gdp has flattened in the last several years.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united- ... ebt-to-gdp

While the stock market is at a historic high, concerns for overspending are just not there with consumer demand as lackluster as it is. However institution investors have pulled out of the stock market and the individual investor is buying. Not a good sign for the stock market even though the fortune 500 companies has loads of cash on hand. I expect a market correction. A zimbabwe? No. Everybody has already pulled in their horns leaving the individual investor exposed not the institutions.

[Austin]

I think the Debt to GDP Flattening lately is due to QE Tapering and GDP growing below expected lines.
Also a fall seen in Budget Deficit although it still remains high.

[TSJones]

There's more. There was a budget sequestration of $84 billion in 2013 and $44 billion in 2014. That doesn't nearly handle the estimated $492 billion budget deficit for 2014 but as a per cent of gdp that is flattening compared to prior years and has a market impact psychology. everybody sees a slowing in the growth of the budget deficit and adjusts their plans accordingly. The tapering of QE if done right should have no impact on debt levels in the US as long as demand stays strong for mortgage backed securities and US treasuries. Still, a tricky situation. The US public is used to buckets of cash being sloshed around. The public is spending it if they can get their hands on it but when they spend it, it is on reduction of household debt or the necessary requirements of life and no more.

[Austin]

23 Charts prove the stocks are heading for crash

Quite Scarry , I suspect the Scenario 1 is more plausible atm

Scenario #1: After several more years of the bubble-driven economic recovery, the Federal Reserve has a “Mission Accomplished” moment and eventually increases the Fed Funds rate (after it ends its QE3 program this year), which pops the post-2009 bubbles that were created by stimulative monetary conditions in the first place. Rising interest rates are what ended the 2003-2007 bubble, which led to the Global Financial Crisis.

[Austin]

There's more. There was a budget sequestration of $84 billion in 2013 and $44 billion in 2014. That doesn't nearly handle the estimated $492 billion budget deficit for 2014 but as a per cent of gdp that is flattening compared to prior years and has a market impact psychology. everybody sees a slowing in the growth of the budget deficit and adjusts their plans accordingly. The tapering of QE if done right should have no impact on debt levels in the US as long as demand stays strong for mortgage backed securities and US treasuries. Still, a tricky situation. The US public is used to buckets of cash being sloshed around. The public is spending it if they can get their hands on it but when they spend it, it is on reduction of household debt or the necessary requirements of life and no more.

I think the market is not looking at Budget Deficit or Flattening of Debt to GDP .....had these been the problem we wouldnt have a Bull Run as we see now. The Deficit and Debt leveling is good for the government as it has to borrow more but we need to see for a year how this goes.

Its more of the rise in Artificial Price of Stock due to QE is what has caused the market to rise and its eventual tapering with bouncy growth and rise in interest rate would cause its fall.

To quote from panduranghari link http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolomb ... ash/print/

The Federal Reserve has actually admitted that U.S. stocks would be 50 percent lower if it was not for their aggressive stimulation (using a 1994 to 2011 sample period, which is pre-QE3):


So 50 % unnatural rise in stock due to flooding of QE money is something not sustainable and a correction will come sooner than later

[panduranghari]

German Government spends a lot on Training it's workforce. It even pays for German Language Classes and partners with industry to transform factories to new tooling and trains the existing workforce to prevent job loses. New Energy Programs get 5 years Interest Free Loans for Start Ups to prove their technology and business model like in Bio-fuel or Alcohol Stills (Actually Brazil and many countries do this last one.
Germany is Rising and the USA has lost most export markets except for Oil Refining and other Oil & Gas work. Germany Enjoys a strong Economy due to a "De Facto Mercantilism".

German economy depends on exports only. Without people able to afford these imports, the industry will shut down. Car industry in Germany has overproduced cars that if they replace all current cars in Germany with brand new ones, there will be a huge surplus still left. The thing is Eurozone has stopped buying things. Germany will experience crunch when Chinese start experiening problems.

[Austin]

Boom Bust : Victor Shih on BRICS Development Bank & Jim Bruce on Fed exit strategy

http://rt.com/shows/boom-bust/173100-br ... ment-bank/

[johneeG]

while your at it, you might want to read this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_ ... e_Currency

You also should also realize you're trying to tell someone who has not only studied this stuff at college but also worked at a national bank, been through an OCOTC audit and also filed monthly suspicious activity reports to the dept of the treasury because some lame brain told a drug joke to a teller. Later dude....much later....

Are you claiming that 'office of the comptroller of the currency' controls Fed? Is that your claim? If so, please explain in what way this control is exercised and which law governs this charter.

Flashback: Alan Greenspan didn’t say the Federal Reserve was above the law

February 4, 2014 by FauxCapitalist

One of the misconceptions bandied about in the alternative media is that Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan claimed in 2007 that the Fed was above the law, as this popular video indicates.

Here’s what he actually said:

“The Federal Reserve is an independent agency, and that means, basically, that there is no other agency of government which can overrule actions that we take.“

He didn’t say that the Fed is above the law — he made the true claim that no other *agency* of government can overrule it, where agency means some other body created by Congress. Congress itself can get rid of the Fed, and should, because its purpose was to serve the big financial interests and not the interests of the people, such as limited state banking and usury-free community currencies would.

Link

Here is Greenspan clearly saying what I said: Federal Reserve is independent and no american govt body can overrule the actions of federal reserve. This is exactly what I said.(And this completely contradicts your claim that 'federal reserve serves at the obeyance to US govt') Yet, you are somehow arguing against it!

johneeGji, not that I like to agree with TSJ, but the independence you are referring to between Pheds and unkil's guvermand, unfortunately, does not exists. It may have existed in the beginning of phed's creation but that is also doubtful, as ulterior and unstated motives are difficult to justify. Both entities are different sides of the same coin. Both sleep in the same bed and give each other blow jobs to to keep the system going. Guvermand's large deficits are funded by pheds. I would argue that they are actually funded by the foreigner, but that is a much bigger topic of debate.

No disagreements with what you are saying. What I am saying is that this scheme is based on the mutual profits of Amirkhan elites and Pheds. It has nothing to do with Amirkhan nation or people. Phed does not have to care for the Amirkhan people. It is a private entity that cares for its own profits. They will pursue their private profit regardless of its impact on the American nation. If push comes to shove, they will relocate to some other country.

If Yuan/Rubles become the currency of transaction, then perhaps these banksters will try to control Yuan/Rubles. Perhaps they will try to form mutually profitable relationship with the elites of Roos and Cheen as well in such conditions.

In short, my point is simply: Phed is not tied to the Amirkhan nation. This is similar to saying that EIC is/was not tied to Bhaarath nation.

[Christopher Sidor]

BIS Speaks

BIS chief fears fresh Lehman from worldwide debt surge

People will disregard it as usual. BIS warned before 2007 crash. BIS warned before tech bust. BIS warned before TOkyo housing bust.

In fact it might be nearer that we thought. By the end of the year 2014 the US Fed will finally end its QE program. The US Fed believes that the recovery has significant wings. The US Fed has said it will keep interest rates low for foreseeable future unless off-course the inflation gene goes berserk. And it is truly remarkable that in spite of all the cash infusion that US Fed did in the past few years the inflation as measured by it has remained stubbornly below 2%. So 2015 will probably be the year to watch out for. Or if not 2015 then at least 2016. This is assuming that the next recession will originate from US.

It just might originate from a point somewhere in Western Pacific.

[TSJones]

while your at it, you might want to read this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_ ... e_Currency

You also should also realize you're trying to tell someone who has not only studied this stuff at college but also worked at a national bank, been through an OCOTC audit and also filed monthly suspicious activity reports to the dept of the treasury because some lame brain told a drug joke to a teller. Later dude....much later....

Are you claiming that 'office of the comptroller of the currency' controls Fed? Is that your claim? If so, please explain in what way this control is exercised and which law governs this charter.

Flashback: Alan Greenspan didn’t say the Federal Reserve was above the law

February 4, 2014 by FauxCapitalist

One of the misconceptions bandied about in the alternative media is that Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan claimed in 2007 that the Fed was above the law, as this popular video indicates.

Here’s what he actually said:

“The Federal Reserve is an independent agency, and that means, basically, that there is no other agency of government which can overrule actions that we take.“

He didn’t say that the Fed is above the law — he made the true claim that no other *agency* of government can overrule it, where agency means some other body created by Congress. Congress itself can get rid of the Fed, and should, because its purpose was to serve the big financial interests and not the interests of the people, such as limited state banking and usury-free community currencies would.

Link

Here is Greenspan clearly saying what I said: Federal Reserve is independent and no american govt body can overrule the actions of federal reserve. This is exactly what I said.(And this completely contradicts your claim that 'federal reserve serves at the obeyance to US govt') Yet, you are somehow arguing against it!

johneeGji, not that I like to agree with TSJ, but the independence you are referring to between Pheds and unkil's guvermand, unfortunately, does not exists. It may have existed in the beginning of phed's creation but that is also doubtful, as ulterior and unstated motives are difficult to justify. Both entities are different sides of the same coin. Both sleep in the same bed and give each other blow jobs to to keep the system going. Guvermand's large deficits are funded by pheds. I would argue that they are actually funded by the foreigner, but that is a much bigger topic of debate.

No disagreements with what you are saying. What I am saying is that this scheme is based on the mutual profits of Amirkhan elites and Pheds. It has nothing to do with Amirkhan nation or people. Phed does not have to care for the Amirkhan people. It is a private entity that cares for its own profits. They will pursue their private profit regardless of its impact on the American nation. If push comes to shove, they will relocate to some other country.

If Yuan/Rubles become the currency of transaction, then perhaps these banksters will try to control Yuan/Rubles. Perhaps they will try to form mutually profitable relationship with the elites of Roos and Cheen as well in such conditions.

In short, my point is simply: Phed is not tied to the Amirkhan nation. This is similar to saying that EIC is/was not tied to Bhaarath nation.

simple question: if congress passes a law stating no business is to be conducted with a certain terrorist state and some bank that does business in the US decides to go ahead and convert the terrorist state's currency into us dollars for their business transactions what do you think might happen? take a wild guess....

[TSJones]

In fact it might be nearer that we thought. By the end of the year 2014 the US Fed will finally end its QE program. The US Fed believes that the recovery has significant wings. The US Fed has said it will keep interest rates low for foreseeable future unless off-course the inflation gene goes berserk. And it is truly remarkable that in spite of all the cash infusion that US Fed did in the past few years the inflation as measured by it has remained stubbornly below 2%. So 2015 will probably be the year to watch out for. Or if not 2015 then at least 2016. This is assuming that the next recession will originate from US.

It just might originate from a point somewhere in Western Pacific.

I must ask, other than the stock market where is the bubble? Where is the over demand?

[Christopher Sidor]

One of the sectors where the bubble might originate is the Tech Industry in US. Just like late 1990s, we are seeing unjustified valuation of Social tech or Web 2.0 tech companies which have not made profits or will unlikely make any. All of this based on data being collected for users and being sold to advertisers. REmember the DOT com bust of late 2000s and the Y2K bug hangover.

The other is the growth of credit in PRC. It is frankly insane. The level is so much bizarre that for a country whose GDP is estimated to be about 9 trillion plus USD the banking industry size is in excess of 20 trillion USD. No country has such a mismatch. The countries which had this in recent memory were all from southern Europe. It did not end well for those countries and hopefully their present is not PRC's future.
IF PRC goes the biggest impact is going to be on resource providing countries like australia , new zeland and other countries of south east asia and Africa.

And the final trouble in place is Europe, our biggest trading and investment partner, bigger than us, bigger than japan bigger than us.

Yes there are hidden problems in the entire Northern Atlantic countries. All of them have debt in excess of 200 pc of GDP. And the fear of BIS of their being either Debt write off or watering down of debt is real. Or worse inflating the debt away such that it means nothing. What the article says about countries entering Debt trap, just like Japan walked into in the 1990s, is a very real possibility. Then we have the worst of 1970s again, i.e. Stagflation. We will need another Mr Volker to come in and raise the interest rates to 20% to kill the inflation genie.

Please note recession is just a catch all phrases. There are worse things than that, Stagflation, Depression and so on.

[Neshant]

The Federal Reserve has actually admitted that U.S. stocks would be 50 percent lower if it was not for their aggressive stimulation (using a 1994 to 2011 sample period, which is pre-QE3):


So 50 % unnatural rise in stock due to flooding of QE money is something not sustainable and a correction will come sooner than later

When the crash does occur, it will become apparent that the only reason for all the "stimulus" (i.e debt at public expense) was to shift the market gambling losses of private bankers onto the backs of suckers (i.e. productive society).

[Austin]

IF the US Stocks crash will it also impact our Stock Market Significantly ? Or due to new Government and better economic prospects we may have little impact

[Neshant]

BRICS bank is coming online at the right moment.

If there is large scale capital flight from desh during a collapse, the bank could perhaps cushion some of the blow with loans at something other than loan shark rates.

The IMF will never get its claws in our hides.

[panduranghari]

In fact it might be nearer that we thought. By the end of the year 2014 the US Fed will finally end its QE program. The US Fed believes that the recovery has significant wings. The US Fed has said it will keep interest rates low for foreseeable future unless off-course the inflation gene goes berserk. And it is truly remarkable that in spite of all the cash infusion that US Fed did in the past few years the inflation as measured by it has remained stubbornly below 2%. So 2015 will probably be the year to watch out for. Or if not 2015 then at least 2016. This is assuming that the next recession will originate from US.

It just might originate from a point somewhere in Western Pacific.

US spends 2.5 B$ daily. They earn 2.1 B$ daily. How can they stop QE?

The petrol bill for US military alone is 800m$ daily. How can they leave middle east alone?

[panduranghari]

IF the US Stocks crash will it also impact our Stock Market Significantly ? Or due to new Government and better economic prospects we may have little impact

Your guess is as good as mine. All the efforts taken will have limited impact in light of the overwhelming odds. The only Indian industry which I feel will remain untouched is the small scale industry. And that will bring about the growth we need subsequently.

[svinayak]

China faces second default in onshore bond market
Livemint - ‎10 minutes ago‎
Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Co. marked China's first onshore corporate bond default when it missed a coupon payment in March.

[TSJones]

US spends 2.5 B$ daily. They earn 2.1 B$ daily. How can they stop QE?

thank you for proving yet again that you do not understand QE.

[panduranghari]

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/stat ... 10/photo/1

"Dollars? We ain't got no dollars. We don't need no dollars. I don't have to show you any stinking dollars!!"

[panduranghari]

This is big.

South African Miners quit World Gold COuncil

Gold Fields’ decision was “purely a cost issue,” spokesman Willie Jacobsz said today by phone. “Members pay per ounce of metal produced and with all the cost-cutting we’ve seen, especially here at Gold Fields, we’ve had a look very carefully at our membership of all sorts of organizations around the world.” AngloGold spokesman Stewart Bailey couldn’t be reached for comment.

The WGC is the gold industry’s market-development organization and its members include Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp., the largest producers. The council “regrets” the departures, it said today in an e-mailed statement. “We thank them for all their support and hope that there will be an opportunity in the future to welcome them back.”

AngloGold and Gold Fields have been slashing costs in the past year as they seek to adjust to a gold price that has fallen 21 percent since the beginning of last year.

The non Anglo-Saxon block owned gold companies are pulling out of WGC. 2 WAYS of looking at this development;
1. As written in the article - Cost of gold has fallen and production costs are higher than what they have been.
2. My opinion is - the western central banks are running short of gold massively as it has been stated by many analysts. WGC is expected to keep producing gold and provide it at the same low price to the Asian nations. In India, WGC makes it possible for many very poor people working on a co-operative basis to buy gold in small denomination. I think such a give away is getting expensive for these companies. Will Barrick gold also pull out? That would be interesting. From 1991 to almost 2009 Barrick had a hedge book where they sold gold at a predetermined price to the Bullion banks. AS the gold price rose, Barrick was getting less money for the gold than the market rates, hence they bought off the hedge book. I believe JP Morgan was the main beneficiary. Read US federal reserve for JP Morgan.

Barrick wont be doing this if they did not believe the price will be rising. How much longer can BARRICK keep put in WGC? If Barrick leave WGC, that will be like one of the P5 leaving the UN security council.

Also on 19 May 2014 - ECB and other central banks announce the fourth Central Bank Gold Agreement.

More info here http://www.gold.org/reserve-asset-manag ... agreements



The Central Banks are also not selling any more gold. I feel the WGC is under pressure from Anglo SAXON block to sell gold at low price. Hence the departure of the 2 big boys.

A follow up to this. As stated this is big.

http://goldchat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/ ... html#links

GLD has some amendments to its terms up for vote, one of which is "that creations may only be made after the required gold deposit has been allocated to the Trust Allocated Account from the Trust Unallocated Account" (hat tip I Shrugged; see here for an explanation of the existing creation process). What is interesting is the explanation of why they are making this amendment:

"This amendment provides additional security for Shareholders by eliminating potential risks related to issuing baskets of Shares against unallocated gold if the Custodian was to become insolvent or if the unallocated gold was otherwise not allocated for some other unforeseen reason."

Unforeseen reason for custodian going insolvent.

[Christopher Sidor]

In fact it might be nearer that we thought. By the end of the year 2014 the US Fed will finally end its QE program. The US Fed believes that the recovery has significant wings. The US Fed has said it will keep interest rates low for foreseeable future unless off-course the inflation gene goes berserk. And it is truly remarkable that in spite of all the cash infusion that US Fed did in the past few years the inflation as measured by it has remained stubbornly below 2%. So 2015 will probably be the year to watch out for. Or if not 2015 then at least 2016. This is assuming that the next recession will originate from US.

It just might originate from a point somewhere in Western Pacific.

US spends 2.5 B$ daily. They earn 2.1 B$ daily. How can they stop QE?

The petrol bill for US military alone is 800m$ daily. How can they leave middle east alone?

Well they are undergoing a shale gas revolution. They are also looking at ways to reduce their dependency on hydro carbon consider the incipient hydrogen revolution and the hybrid cum electric revolution taking place in USA. If USA gets serious and targets to replace 30% of its current electricity production by Renewables, like Germans have, then the gig is up as far as hydro carbon industry is concerned.

Funny part India has not set such a target for itself considering the mammoth wind power potential of Bay of Bengal, the solar power potential and the tidal power potential of Bay of Bengal. This along with the 3 stage thorium cycle should be more than enough to eliminate our dependency on hydro carbons completely for electricity generation

[svinayak]

This along with the 3 stage thorium cycle should be more than enough to eliminate our dependency on hydro carbons completely for electricity generation

For how many centuries?