Siachen News & Discussion

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Supratik
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Supratik »

I doubt the army chief is picked by the PM in India. Gurus correct me if I am wrong. Kashmir and Siachen are cottage industries in Khan and poodle land. So we keep hearing about something or the other from time to time for the last 20 years.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Supratik »

Viv S wrote:
I'd have agreed with you ten years back. Today while its true of course that a sizable section of the media and intelligentsia is advocating peace with India with varying levels of passion, more important is the political leadership especially those with grassroots support. Their political structure is not very unlike India's - PPP is similar to the Congress - secularish, pro-farmer and devoted to the Bhutto family (which includes Zardari), the PML(N) is similar to the BJP - pro-business, slight religious tilt and then you have various regional parties - PML(Q), MQM, ANP, JeI etc. The big difference is the politically influential military in Pakistan.

The PPP was originally virulently anti-India (under ZA Bhutto), moderately anti-India in initial years of Benazir's govt and then pro-peace once it broke from the army's influence. Its the same with the PML(N) - it came to power with the support of the army, but as soon as it found its legs, it cut ties and started pursuing a settlement with India. Pervez Musharraf seized power in '99 while pursuing a hard-line but made a U-turn just a few years down the line. Every one of them came to power espousing confrontation with India right until they were in chair - then reality sunk in and they realized what that meant.

Here on BRF its popular to think of their leaders as mad men, but the truth is they are by and large rational individuals and can read the writing on the wall. It was different back in 80s and early 90s when at least they were fairly prosperous while India was poverty stricken with stagnant economy. Today, not only are they up against an economy that is 10 times larger but one that's also growing 3 times as fast. There's now a broad consensus across their political spectrum that Kashmir can no longer be resolved on their terms. Their military too is reaching the conclusion that maintaining even the traditional 1:3 military balance with India will soon become nonviable.

Point is, Pakistan is moving in a direction a lot similar to Bangladesh (which too has its fair share of loonies) - given the ongoing turmoil its less evident right now but you study the news coming out and read between the lines it does become evident.
Actually we had discussed this about 10-12 years back on BR. A direct comparison of Indian and Pakistani political system or the state cannot be done. If your state is over-ridingly Islamo-fascist you cannot pick and choose political parties or individuals and do an equal=equal. If you say the Indian system is similar to the US system and Congress = Democrat and BJP = Republican I will buy it. For example, while we have communal riots I have never heard of a Muslim woman walking down the street to College, getting abducted and then appearing in the court as a converted wife of some Hindu.

My personal belief is the same as brihaspati's theory of "Islamist memes" and Ramana's "kabila" concept. Unless there is fundamental change in Pakistani ideology all this is hot gas ejected by "JNU types" in between fighting Hindu fascists and attending ISI sponsored conventions and butter chicken + single malt dinners.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by sudeepj »

Updated the map again, this time with a few peaks on the Saltoro ridge, and corrected the placement of Indira Col. What I had earlier marked as Indira col was actually Turkestan La! :D

Rohit is right, there is no going across Indira Col, at least the experience will not be a pleasant one. Damn place is full of nasty cornices.. The place is supposedly named after Laxmi ji. I think Younghusband was being ironical.

Also updated Turkestan la, and a path from Shaksgam valley to the Siachen Glacier via the turkestan la.

Since the AGPL is said to be along the Saltoro ridge, if you trace out a rough line along the peaks, the will be the actual border. I think the map is fairly complete now, calling out all major peaks in the area, and the known passes. Please let me know if I have missed something, will be glad to correct. Once again, Google earth is invaluable in making sense of the terrain.

Siachen map
sudeepj
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by sudeepj »

ramana wrote:I was under impression that ridgeline is the border in all mountain lands. For instance that is the basis with PRC and Nepal and off course when it comes to India its not followed!
A ridgeline is a defensible border, and also avoids complex water issues, (Whatever water is shed on this side is mine, and that side is yours) thats why its a good idea to choose ridgelines with connections as borders. Having said that, this principal is not always going to be beneficial to India in territorial terms.

For e.g. the Shaksgam valley is separated by the highest ridgelines in the world from an area that we claim, (and are in control of), i.e. Siachen. Further, its 'easier' (relative terms, its very hardy territory on that side too) reached from China than from India. Thirdly, see the Aksai chin region, if the mountain range is going to define the border, it will be along the Kunlun ranges, which cedes nearly all of Aksai Chin to China.

In this region, when the borders we have are the result of military conflict, imperial "forward defense" policy and emotional claims about "not one inch of motherland", I think the way forward is to look at the terrain, geographical and military logic and devise borders that work both for us and for our neighbours.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Kanishka »

sudeepj wrote: I think the way forward is to look at the terrain, geographical and military logic and devise borders that work both for us and for our neighbours.
Sure, why not? Let's start from POK. :wink:
eklavya
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by eklavya »

Viv S wrote:
eklavya wrote:Hafiz Saeed is moving around freely, mocking and showing his utter contempt and hatred for India and the US, and his Pakistan Defence Council is openly declaring war on India and the US.
True. And Afzal Guru, Kasab are still alive as are those responsible for the anti-Sikh riots and Gujarat riots. Mafioso and thugs contest and win state and national elections. What makes you think the justice system is any less broken on that side?

Hafiz Saeed, lets be clear, is just a pawn of the ISI, the Pakistan Army, and General Kayani. Lets also be clear, in Pakistan, the army calls the shots, not the civilians. The courts in Pakistan let Hafiz Saeed walk free, and there is NOTHING that the "media and intelligentsia [that] is advocating peace with India with varying levels of passion" can do about it.
That's a wonderfully simplistic way of looking at issues. Black and white, no shades of grey. Don't care to study the pressures or fissures internal to the establishment or the army's interaction with various political forces. Easier to make a blanket statement - army controls country, army hates us, therefore country hates us. Dig in heels. Therein lies the bliss.
VivS, the simple point that you are missing is that the peace constituency in Pakistan is powerless compared with the army-jihadist constituency. I am all in favour of trade, investment and people-to-people contacts (except for cricket, where they cheat too much), as it may (we can only hope) bolster the peace constituency over the next 20-30 years

Najam Sethi himself had to hide in the US recently due to threats against his life. People like him are powerless in the equation versus India: they are in no position to stop terrorism against India.

In any case, concessions over Siachen have no role to play in any policy to boost the peace constituency in Pakistan. Those who think otherwise are hugely deluded.

I can only assume you were tired when you managed to link Kasab, Afzal Guru, Guj riots and Delhi riots to Siachen.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by rohitvats »

ShauryaT wrote:If a straight line due north is drawn from NJ 9842, it joins Terram Shehr II glacier, which would put Sia La, eight degrees west of this line. It will also put Indira Col, west of this line. Using this logic, we would control only about 2/3 of the Siachen Glacier. Now the Indian argument shall be the watershed principle should hold, which will bring the Saltoro in the picture. But, this is still unilateral and the charge against India of a violation of Shimla will hold. However, the LoC is itself not a result of some principled border. It was demarcated based on the AGPL in 71 and 1949, held through force. The issue with the settlement of the LoC on the basis of the "thence North" of NJ9842 is the fact that the entire state is in fact disputed and hence no "settlement" of the final boundary in the glaciers can be made in isolation of the Kashmir issue. The only solution is to demilitarize the Glaciers. AGPL is a sore sticking point for the PA, as it will legitimize an aggression in their eyes.
I was waiting for this line of argument to come forth - Col. Pavan Nair also puts forth this point. But there is a big hole in this "violation of 1972 Shimla Accord" and "true north line"- and that is the behavior and claim of Pakistan.

- Point 1: Before any sort of movement happened in 1984, Pakistan had already claimed the entire glacier area from NJ9842 to KK Pass as shown in the map I linked from GK presentation. So, violation of the Shimla Accord had happened before any Indian movement happened on Siachen. If Pakistan had any sort of respect for Shimla Accord, it could have raised the matter with Indian government or clarified. The fact that they went to delineate the Pakistan-China boundary up to KK Pass in 1963 itself proves that Pakistan considered the area has part of its territory.

- Point 2: Everyone and his aunt knows that PA intended to occupy the ridge line and we beat them to it - where was the "Sanctity of Shimla Accord" there? Had we not gotten wind about their operation and preempted the move, it is PA which was holding the ridge line. What would have happened to this Shimla Accord argument in that case?

We have suffered enough by unilateral adherence to the treaties and this tendency to self-flagellate needs to stop.

As for LOC and its disputed nature - it is a fait accompli and represents the minimum level from each party will start. As for AGPL being sore point with PA - well, where was this new found adherence to accords and treaties when they did Kargil in 1999? It is a bit rich coming from a country and its army which has violated every treaty and accord since 1947 to take recourse to this line - you cannot be selective about implementation of accords and principle.

PA objection to AGPL is that of a loser and scoundrel - it cannot authenticate AGPL because mango-abdul will know about reality and it will that much reduce the scope for hanky-panky. An organization which could claim in 1999 that LOC in the Kargil sector is not demarcated cannot be trusted. There need to be iron-clad guarantees.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by manjgu »

".....I think the way forward is to look at the terrain, geographical and military logic and devise borders that work both for us and for our neighbours".

Unfortunately, this logic does not work anywhere. ( try explaining it to Chinese, Pakistanis ..) . Borders are borders...they dont change just because of terrain or some other logic. However, how u defend the border has to be based on terrain , military logic...surely

Chacha nehru said forward policy and the consequence was Dhola post deep inside a valley , totally indefensible but right on the edge of indian border. A post dominated by the chinese and where IA met its worst humiliation. The border could have been defended from the ridge line over Dhola !! the post was created contrary to military logic and terrain.

However, Saltoro is a ridgeline and best defended as we are today. the next defensive line is at Khardung La..if u have done ur google earth homework well, u will understand.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by rohitvats »

sudeepj wrote: A ridgeline is a defensible border, and also avoids complex water issues, (Whatever water is shed on this side is mine, and that side is yours) thats why its a good idea to choose ridgelines with connections as borders
Ridge line is not always the way to go about delineating the boundary - it also takes into account the historical claims and settled population.
For e.g. the Shaksgam valley is separated by the highest ridgelines in the world from an area that we claim, (and are in control of), i.e. Siachen. Further, its 'easier' (relative terms, its very hardy territory on that side too) reached from China than from India. Thirdly, see the Aksai chin region, if the mountain range is going to define the border, it will be along the Kunlun ranges, which cedes nearly all of Aksai Chin to China.
The Shaksgam Valley area watershed rests on Karakorum - the principle adopted was that Karakorum divides the watershed of rivers in Indus and Tarim Basin. The river south of this range flow into Arabian Sea while north of it (Shaksgam River) flows into Tarim Basin. There is one exception in this demarcation - 750 sq.kms area north of Shimshal Pass (on the watershed) was given to Pakistan as this area was historically used by people of Shimshal for grazing their livestock.

Now, the above is quite all right if you are taking about virgin areas - but the things cannot be seen in isolation. For example, the Mir of Hunza historically claimed the areas of Tagdumbash and Raksam Valley in Chinese Turkestan. But since the British did not consider the area important from defense of India perspective and administration issues, the claim line they had presented to Chinese left out these areas. While the Chinese did not then respond to these submissions of British, the demarcation in 1963 happened on these lines.

Here again, the Chinese claim line, Pakistan Claim line and actual position held by Pakistan on ground differed widely and the final border represents adjustment of these claim lines.

Same is case of J&K boundary in east - British defined the boundary in terms of their assessment on trade and military matters. There were multiple boundaries proposed at different point in time depending upon the flavor of season and those in charge in British high command in India. All those boundaries never took into account the historical claims of Indian Rajas - J&K State in this case.

In case of J&K North boundaries, India was short-changed by policies and compulsions of British interests. It is a long debate and a matter in itself.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by vishvak »

rohitvats wrote: ..
The Shaksgam Valley area watershed rests on Karakorum - the principle adopted was that Karakorum divides the watershed of rivers in Indus and Tarim Basin. The river south of this range flow into Arabian Sea while north of it (Shaksgam River) flows into Tarim Basin. There is one exception in this demarcation - 750 sq.kms area north of Shimshal Pass (on the watershed) was given to Pakistan as this area was historically used by people of Shimshal for grazing their livestock.
..
Tangent question: Does the Siachen glacier wholly contribute to Indus?

Reminds of this quote from B. B. Lal from link
Against the overwhelming evidence in support of the Saraswati being an Indian river and majority of the Indus sites being located along its banks, the remarks of the well-known historian, R. S. Sharma, come as a rude shock. Sharma (1999: 35) says, “The fundamentalists want to establish the superiority of the Sarasvati over the Indus because of communal considerations. In the Harappan context they think that after partition the Indus belongs to the Muslims and only the Sarasvati remains with the Hindus” (emphasis B. B. Lal’s).

The fact, however, is that no scholar of repute has made such a statement. The Indus, even though today, flows, for most of its length, through Pakistan, is very much an Indian river as well for it reaches Pakistan only after flowing through Kashmir. Besides, as Sir Mortimer Wheeler (1959) said in his book, India from the Earliest Times to Ashoka, the Indus gave India her name and the Ganges gave her faith. So no sane scholar can make such a foolish and rabid statement.
If Siachen supplies any water to Indus, it is also Indian heritage. There is an independent cultural connection too.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by rohitvats »

Nubra originates from Siachen while Shyok is fed by Rimo glaciers east of Siachen. both are major tributaries of Indus.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by nelson »

If it has not dawned upon the protagonists of demilitarisation that it is a war out there, we shall have to redefine warfare in the 21st century. If previously it was held and practiced that "Attack is the best form of defence" now on it shall be "Withdrawal is the best form of defence".

:-?
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by eklavya »

US/ISAF/NATO is losing the war in Afghanistan, and is desperate to persuade the Pakistan Army to use its control over the Taliban to provide some sort of honourable exit out of the quagmire. The price demanded by the Pakistani Army is the weakening of India's position in J&K and in Afghanistan. Since this is a price that US/ISAF/NATO can well afford (as they lose nothing!), we will continue to see a clamour in the Western press for India to make concessions (on Siachen, etc.) to Pakistan, in the desperate hope that the grateful Pakistani Army will bail out the Western forces in Afghanistan.

See, for example:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b6ee77e-7680 ... z1u5TCI900
The death of bin Laden opens up the possibility of hiving off the Afghan Taliban from al-Qaeda and pursuing a political solution to the war in Afghanistan. But Pakistan will not be weaned off its addiction to jihadi proxies unless three things happen – all of them necessary for an end to the Afghan war.

Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns in Afghanistan must be recognised; India is using the country to work against Islamabad, especially in Baluchistan. Detente with India and a solution to Kashmir must be addressed; if not there is no hope of changing the worldview of Pakistan’s praetorians.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by chaanakya »

vishvak wrote:

If Siachen supplies any water to Indus, it is also Indian heritage. There is an independent cultural connection too.
Yes , in a very large quantity. Actually all water drains to Indus.

Saltoro River
Nubra River
Galwan river and
Mo river
are tributaries of Shyok which meets Indus at Keris in POK.

Peak Discharge in Shyok (including Nubra and other tributaries ) is in June-July and in the range of 2250M3/S. Indus discharge at the same time , before meeting Shyok is 1300 M3/S. Indus peak discharge after meeting Shyok is 3500M3/S to 4500M3/S. Range indicates glacier melts as well as precipitation by NW Monsoon. After meeting Shigar River (baltoro and Biafo glaciers) its peak Discharge goes up to 7000 M3/S. After Astore River up to Tarbela it is in excess of 8000M3/S.

Data are from Soil Hydrology, Land Use and Agriculture: Measurement and Modelling By Manoj K. Shukla in an article written by B Mukhopadhyaya and V P Singh.

Note : data collected are from WAPDA source hence to be taken with a pinch of salt. I have taken peak discharge from the graphs hence could be off by ~100 M3/S
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Virupaksha »

nelson wrote:If it has not dawned upon the protagonists of demilitarisation that it is a war out there, we shall have to redefine warfare in the 21st century. If previously it was held and practiced that "Attack is the best form of defence" now on it shall be "Withdrawal is the best form of defence".

:-?
those who are talking about "cost-benefit anal -ysis"of defending our own land, wonder what they will say about this.

India writes off 200 million dollars loan to BD (approximately the same amount as in Siachen)
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 022038.cms

Wonder who is feeling rich today and is that not money taken away from the hospitals, schools from India's poor?
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by ShauryaT »

ramana wrote:I was under impression that ridgeline is the border in all mountain lands. For instance that is the basis with PRC and Nepal and off course when it comes to India its not followed!
As a border, it makes sense. But that is not what the AGPL or LoC is - it is not an accepted border. I am wondering why is it that just like TSP, has the gumption to stretch to NE, and claim the LoC to stretch to the KKP. Why did India not do the same and stretch our lines to the Khunjerab. After all these two are the two major passes for the Karakoram range.

There is a good reason for India to not do so, because we consider the entire region to be disputed. So, the only lines recognized are either lines mutually agreed to, like a border or lines held by force like the LoC or AGPL. All other lines are meaningless. So, is the Durand line and the entire border with China, including Shaksgam. What Pakistan draws or claims as the LoC logical extensions should not matter.

The only thing that matters is what we hold by force or agreement. We hold the AGPL by force and hence my question, the IA's insistence that AGPL be recognized, when the entire state is disputed is for whom?

I fear there is some baggage of experiences here from Kargil and Parakram for the IA vis-à-vis the political leadership and the way it functions that the IA is forced to take a hard stand on. The decision not to cross the LoC during Kargil gave some learnings to the IA. The decision to not provide a political objective for Parakram gave lessons to IA. It seems to me, as much as IA does not trust Pakistan, what goes unsaid is a similar lack of trust exists for the Indian political leadership too. Thoughts?
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by brihaspati »

^^^Why not the reverse question - whether political leadership lacks trust in the IA, so that it intervened exactly at moments that would thwart military momentum? By that model, both of the above LOC/political objective issues would be perfect instruments to deny the military satisfaction in a sense of achievement and effectiveness.

If the political leadership has already made decisions on siachen, it would make sense for the IA to hotpress a presentation against doing so. However, the political leadership may take that in turn as an assertion by the military and therefore a threat.

My comments should not be seen as support for either.

At this moment it is best for the nation that the issue remains military, temporary, and beyond legalization in any form. Obviously all three governments involved - TSP, PRC and India - are facing political uncertainties, and would like to legalize the issue one way or the other. For TSP, its own state structure under threat, and POK insurgents using the threat of leaning over to India tactically, makes this urgent. For PRC, rumblings are already on - as predicted for some time here. In this situation, if India just holds its ground, then over time the ground situation in NA may go beyond PRC+TSP control and in favour of Indian reabsorption. Hence all voices have been activated to create pressure that India goes for some kind of legalization of existing occupations on a permanent basis.

In fact even a border should not be accepted - and no conversion of LOC to international permanent border agreed to.

Both China and Pakistan have repeatedly and consistently used military occupation to turn into permanent legal occupation, as fait accompli and using pre-existing sooper-power dynamics. India's political dynamics - as a legacy of JLN - will never allow alignment to the extent necessary to neutralize the opportunist alignments of the two prostitutes TSP and PRC. So retreating south in a semi-legal recognition with lots of potential for linking up by China and TSP under current advances of high altitude warfare, is suicidal and will severely jeopardize counter moves if such an incursion actually happens.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Mahendra »

One of the panelists on BD's programme on NDTV about siachen made this comment that reflects reality

Asking us to demilitarize Siachen is like asking us to demilitarize Jaipur, it is our land and no body has any business asking us to do this or that.
BD abruptly cut off a guy who was talking about Kayani being a proxy for the Chinese
There were few ex IA officers on the programme, officers who had lost parts of their limbs to the harsh conditions of Siachen, yet they were of the opinion that it was worth it..reason being it is our land and we must defend it at any cost.
A stupid, fat, fugly JNU biatch was of the opinion that if India unilaterally withdraws, the poaks would not occupy the posts vacated by the Indians because the weather is harsher than in Kagril :eek:
There was a brit on the programme with a distinct Paki bias, BD did noting to challenge her
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by paramu »

No other country discuss things like this about their land and their country
Only in India we have a TV debate on this
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by harbans »

I actually completely agree with the sentiment on Demilitarization of just not the Siachen Glacier, but Kashmir, Arunachal, Bhutan, the entire border with Tibet. These were never so in History despite movements of peoples, traders and pilgrims across without any issues at all. Militarization has been done so only the last few decades..and so the relevant question is what happened in the last few decades that the need of manning the borders arose in the first place? We have not put any Army across the border with Nepal, Bhutan for instance.

Answer: Tibetan culture was replaced with Han Chinese imperialist. The peace of Kashmir was engulfed by a newly emerged Islamist neighbor both of who detest the cultural contiguity and peace of the type India has/ had with Tibet, Bhutan, Nepal. Tomorrow if the Chinese take over Nepal, we will have to scramble to militarize our borders inevitably with Nepal too, just like we are doing with Pakistan on every inch and the Chinese on the LAC northern fronts.

These border issues are not going away, and India needs it's boots on the ground every inch even where no blade of grass grows till the Islamist and Han imperialist ideologies are wiped out on our Western and Northern neighborhoods and the necessary buffers of Tibet emerge. This core recent dimension to the border dispute must be highlighted on every channel. Why are the Chinese negotiating on Ar P? Why are we not negotiating Chinese claims on Tibet, why are we not claiming Kailash Mansarover an area that is twice as large as Aksai and which is the holiest spots of hundreds of millions of Indians? Why are we even negotiating of withdrawal from what is essentially our territory for millenia. 1 millienia ago, 2 ago, 3 ago, 4 ago..who was in Kailash Mansarover, Kashmir? THe Islamist or the Han? How and why is it that the recent intruders have made irrelevant boudaries between Dharmic states a matter of dispute? There in lies our folly. Think about it.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by RoyG »

Mahendra wrote:One of the panelists on BD's programme on NDTV about siachen made this comment that reflects reality

Asking us to demilitarize Siachen is like asking us to demilitarize Jaipur, it is our land and no body has any business asking us to do this or that.
BD abruptly cut off a guy who was talking about Kayani being a proxy for the Chinese
There were few ex IA officers on the programme, officers who had lost parts of their limbs to the harsh conditions of Siachen, yet they were of the opinion that it was worth it..reason being it is our land and we must defend it at any cost.
A stupid, fat, fugly JNU biatch was of the opinion that if India unilaterally withdraws, the poaks would not occupy the posts vacated by the Indians because the weather is harsher than in Kagril :eek:
There was a brit on the programme with a distinct Paki bias, BD did noting to challenge her
"Last thing we should do is to trust the paki...that's all I have to say." lmao. Don't worry the IA and nationalists of this country wont allow the demilitarization to happen. The chinese are steadily building up their capabilities in PoK and are itching to take a couple nibbles and bites soon. Just ignore the liberals. They can't comprehend national security and will do anything to create controversy to get people to listen to them.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Kanishka »

harbans wrote:I actually completely agree with the sentiment on Demilitarization of just not the Siachen Glacier, but Kashmir, Arunachal, Bhutan, the entire border with Tibet. These were never so in History despite movements of peoples, traders and pilgrims across without any issues at all. Militarization has been done so only the last few decades..and so the relevant question is what happened in the last few decades that the need of manning the borders arose in the first place? We have not put any Army across the border with Nepal, Bhutan for instance.

Answer: Tibetan culture was replaced with Han Chinese imperialist. The peace of Kashmir was engulfed by a newly emerged Islamist neighbor both of who detest the cultural contiguity and peace of the type India has/ had with Tibet, Bhutan, Nepal. Tomorrow if the Chinese take over Nepal, we will have to scramble to militarize our borders inevitably with Nepal too, just like we are doing with Pakistan on every inch and the Chinese on the LAC northern fronts.

These border issues are not going away, and India needs it's boots on the ground every inch even where no blade of grass grows till the Islamist and Han imperialist ideologies are wiped out on our Western and Northern neighborhoods and the necessary buffers of Tibet emerge. This core recent dimension to the border dispute must be highlighted on every channel. Why are the Chinese negotiating on Ar P? Why are we not negotiating Chinese claims on Tibet, why are we not claiming Kailash Mansarover an area that is twice as large as Aksai and which is the holiest spots of hundreds of millions of Indians? Why are we even negotiating of withdrawal from what is essentially our territory for millenia. 1 millienia ago, 2 ago, 3 ago, 4 ago..who was in Kailash Mansarover, Kashmir? THe Islamist or the Han? How and why is it that the recent intruders have made irrelevant boudaries between Dharmic states a matter of dispute? There in lies our folly. Think about it.
Absolutely. The wrongs of the past need to be corrected first for any meaningful and fair "settlement" of any border issue.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by ShauryaT »

The participants captured the issues well at the show. Now, the policy leaders have to do their job. Make a decision.

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/we-the ... topstories
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Roperia »

The NDTV programme is nothing but Congi psyops intended to influence the Indian population to create an atmosphere for Dr. MMS's anticipated trip to Jihadistan. Dr. MMS and his coterie plans to stick it to Indian Army by gifting Siachen to Pakis and hopes that this will create an atmosphere where Pakis would be dissuaded from terrorizing our cities.

His term will complete in 2014 and then he will go into oblivion, sooner or later Pakis will occupy those posts.

After watching the audience's reactions, I am shocked to see such idiots amongst our populace, who want to save human lives by giving our territory to the enemy. We are also losing troops in Kashmir, using the same logic we should also give Kashmir to the Jihadis? Pakis are also bombing Mumbai every 5 years, we should be prepared to give up Mumbai as well and eventually setup a peace park in New Delhi.

Myra MacDonald is a typical Brit i.e. Paki sympathizer. Fortunately, her opinion matters as much as Britain matters in the world today.

I hope our babus stick to their point - Dear Kiya-nahi, sign on this dotted line and make AGPL the LoC else we'll see you in the next round on Siachen. :D
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Kanishka »

While Barkha Dutt's bias is apparent once again, I was heartened to find that an overwhelming majority of Indians are against
any change in status quo in Siachen and no Government should ignore the voice of the majority.

MMS and his chamchas may still make an attempt to alter the status quo but my gut feeling is that the collective wisdom of the people of India will prevail.

One point to note is that to me some of the participants looked like kids out of school with very little knowledge of geography
or understanding of the issues between India and its neighbours as one panelist said in a lighter vain "teaching of geography should be made compulsory".
I would hope that with time they begin to grasp the concept of nationhood and the threats faced by India from its hostile neighbours.

The loudest cheer and clapping was when Retd Major General Thapliyal said " the last thing we should do is trust a paki" :lol: .
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Roperia »

Oh I commented before the program finished. Bravo! Maj Gen Thapliyal for saying "the last thing we should do is to trust the paki" on national TV. :rotfl:
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Jarita »

Roperia wrote:The NDTV programme is nothing but Congi psyops intended to influence the Indian population to create an atmosphere for Dr. MMS's anticipated trip to Jihadistan. Dr. MMS and his coterie plans to stick it to Indian Army by gifting Siachen to Pakis and hopes that this will create an atmosphere where Pakis would be dissuaded from terrorizing our cities.

His term will complete in 2014 and then he will go into oblivion, sooner or later Pakis will occupy those posts.

After watching the audience's reactions, I am shocked to see such idiots amongst our populace, who want to save human lives by giving our territory to the enemy. We are also losing troops in Kashmir, using the same logic we should also give Kashmir to the Jihadis? Pakis are also bombing Mumbai every 5 years, we should be prepared to give up Mumbai as well and eventually setup a peace park in New Delhi.

Myra MacDonald is a typical Brit i.e. Paki sympathizer. Fortunately, her opinion matters as much as Britain matters in the world today.

I hope our babus stick to their point - Dear Kiya-nahi, sign on this dotted line and make AGPL the LoC else we'll see you in the next round on Siachen. :D

Audience in these shows is also typically handpicked. The usual confused youth who are desperately looking for gora approval.
I am amazed that this PR agent of congress is still going strong in NDTV. Does she have any credibility?
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by sum »

After watching the audience's reactions, I am shocked to see such idiots amongst our populace, who want to save human lives by giving our territory to the enemy. We are also losing troops in Kashmir, using the same logic we should also give Kashmir to the Jihadis? Pakis are also bombing Mumbai every 5 years, we should be prepared to give up Mumbai as well and eventually setup a peace park in New Delhi.
Really liked the part where BD kept pestering Col."Bull" Kumar about how he felt that he lost his toes for such a barren land while capturing Siachen and finally, Bull Kumar couldnt take it and quipped back that near 70% of the soldiers had frostbites when they were sent in to defend Srinagar in 47-48 and that doesnt mean that Srinagar should be gifted away because soldiers were loosing their toes , at which point BD promptly cut him off :D

Also, the other quote i liked was how countries which forget their geography become footnotes in History!!
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by sum »

From OrBat:
Something peculiar is up in the Siachin Glacier The Pakistan Army Chief has made a third trip to the site of the avalanche that killed 133 Pakistan Army personnel. Normally, one would think one trip is enough. General Kiyani is, after all, Army chief. He has an army to run and more importantly, a nation to run. On each occasion he has called for a Siachin settlement. This third time he has even taken an Indian journalist with him. Why this PR blitz? He made an offer the first time, India said all offers for settlement were welcome. The General couldn’t have been serious about the offer because these matters are not discussed via the media. Anyway, both sides periodically call for settling outstanding issues. General Kiyani has made his point and now let the diplomatic channels do their work. Does he think he has only to call for a settlement and the next day India agrees? Why these attempts to pressure India, all made within days of each other?


· The General has talked about the enormous cost of occupying the region. We cannot speak for Pakistan, but there is no evidence the cost bothers India. There’s been no fighting for years, and the human cost of operating in the hostile environment has steadily come down as both sides have learned to live there. There is no reason for India to agree to any withdrawal, because Pakistan can occupy Indian positions within hours. And the vulnerability applies to Pakistan.

· The only thing we can think of is that there is some trouble in the Northern Light Infantry, Pakistan’s high mountain regiment. Even though after it was regularized subsequent to the Kargil War 1999, as a consequence of which 50% of the regiment is Punjabi, half still remains enlisted from locals. First, the locals are mainly Shia Muslims and Pakistani Sunnis, in common with their brethren worldwide, persecute the Shias. Second, the Northern Areas have been the scene of major crackdowns by the Pakistan Government because of local resentment against Islamabad. Third, the Chinese are now in the region in increasing numbers and this has to be causing more problems with the locals.


· It is possible – and we are only guessing – that the loss of lives in the avalanche and the failure to recover the bodies has been a trigger for resentments already building up within the NLI.



· But again, we do not see how withdrawal will solve any of these issues for Pakistan. To begin with, the men died in an act of nature. No one is to blame. The NLI are professional soldiers, they serve because they want to and because in comparison with their meager economic circumstances the Army offers a very good living. We do not see how saying “Okay, we’re pulling you back” suddenly makes everything okay for the local soldiers of the regiment – assuming there is a problem. And if the other issues we discussed are in some way making the locals less reliable, Pakistan has a population of 180-million. It can recruit replacements and make the NLI 75% or even 100% Punjabi within a few months. It can also post NLI battalions outside the region – since the regiment is now a regular regiment, Pakistan in any case sends NLI battalions where they are needed.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by ManuT »

The ndtv show was pretty bad.

They think CF has held since 2003 because of good intentions of pakistan. :shock:
Barkha claimed to be the expert. We should trust TSP as CF has on LOC too.

CBA is the key words here. :shock: Pathetic.

Big India Argument on Siachen == Pakistan Arguments on Siachen. (with big ben in the background)
What was Pakistan's Argument 70 years back when it was not even born?

Peace Park = Jointly managed by India and Pakistan (for the time being limited Siachen).

Failure will lead to war Bigger than WW3. :eek: (padosi expert)

There is a limit to national security. :shock:

Gen Thapliyal's last word, India only country to vacates its own territory. His last words. 2 thumbs up.

The soldiers got their words in but the tone of the show was aman ka pajama.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Yayavar »

This thread has moved quite fast...
sudeepj wrote:

Attacks on what? and with what? Instead of dealing in hypotheticals, why not take a look at the terrain and see what kind of military material the Pakistanis could bring across and how they would sustain their men, once they came down from the ridges. No invasion across those heights is possible. The only possible route, that I could see, is along the Shyok valley.
Sueepj: you made the case that Kargil heights may be vacated if an alternative route to Leh exists. That the Pakis can only shell a few villages and India can then shell a few other villages. So if there is an issue of hypotheticals then you need to not hypothesise.

Withdrawing form Kargil heights had a consequence once, why can it not have again? Pakis move in to occupy. So, same as Siachen, either we make them withdraw or accept. Correct? Isn't that what your hypothetical leads to?
Accurate targeting, but on what? some villages, which could be evacuated.. Some villages were evacuated for the duration of the war in any case! So if Civil lives were not at stake, should we have lost 600 lives for some property? We paid a price of 600 odd soldiers lives, and 1000 or so injured, two jets shot down, and one chopper. This price would not be paid by any military general, if the Srinagar Leh highway was not disrupted. The attack would have come at a place of our choosing.
How glibly you suggest that other folks give up their homes, possibly a few die, when there is shelling ! Are you now suggesting not only do we make an alternative route inland (yes, it is required even with the current highway functional and not under enemy threat), evacuate the border, and also evacuate villages. Essentially shrink our borders...and then what, once the enemy moves in, shrink more? Of course, probably not where you live, only where those villagers live. Or did I misunderstand you?
An evaluation based on the economic argument is likely to consider even a retaliation counter to progress and economy. Combined with lack of reaction to multiple infringements - killing of innocent Indians, and incursions on eastern border - there is very little confidence that the 'economic argument types' will countenance a reactive punishing counter-attack.
To make up *my* mind, I put fwd five criteria, not just the economic one. To refresh your memory, they are strategic/political/cultural/economic/cost of operations(human/monetary). If you want to make up your mind differently, its your prerogative. Why beat up a strawman?
It is not a strawman. A clear statement that the component of your thought based on economy will also consider retaliation counteer to progress and economy.
Are there no other aspects where bhaichara can be demonstrated first? Maybe suggest something to Pakis - can you suggest any such steps from the opposite side?
Sure. Give up some terror network that will not end up destabilizing the civil govt. there. Such as Paresh Baruah (though he is said to be in China these days), or give up the Indian Mujahedin network, or some muhajir don shon from India. Thats the best I could think of. I personally feel, that without such a gesture to show good faith, we should not move fwd on Siachen.
I see the deep thought and emphasis on what the Pakis shoudl do in return for India's gratuitous munificence :)
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Neela »

Folks, just a observation.
Is the Siachen piss park a watered down version of the West's solution to donate Kashmir to the terrorists? I feel the mention of Kashmir has gone down significantly in the press. But Siachen seems to have taken its place. This coupled with media's constant "reminder" that Siachen is a wasteland/costly has raised my suspicions. Pure speculation from my part!
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by chetak »

Is Manmohan itching for ‘peace at any cost’ with Pak?
“Pakistan has violated every written agreement and verbal commitment since 1947,” Lt Gen Ravi Sawhney, former Director-General of Military Intelligence, told the magazine. “Why does our Prime Minister want to close his eyes to hard facts and trust Pakistan blindly?.......

An excessive eagerness to secure peace at any cost with Pakistan comes with enormous risks of a surrender of strategic advantage. Nothing is worth that cost: not even the prospect of a Nobel Peace Prize and a legacy as a peacemaker.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by svinayak »

sum wrote:From OrBat:
Something peculiar is up in the Siachin Glacier The Pakistan Army Chief has made a third trip to the site of the avalanche that killed 133 Pakistan Army personnel. Normally, one would think one trip is enough. General Kiyani is, after all, Army chief. He has an army to run and more importantly, a nation to run. On each occasion he has called for a Siachin settlement. This third time he has even taken an Indian journalist with him. Why this PR blitz? He made an offer the first time, India said all offers for settlement were welcome. The General couldn’t have been serious about the offer because these matters are not discussed via the media. Anyway, both sides periodically call for settling outstanding issues. General Kiyani has made his point and now let the diplomatic channels do their work. Does he think he has only to call for a settlement and the next day India agrees? Why these attempts to pressure India, all made within days of each other?


· The General has talked about the enormous cost of occupying the region. We cannot speak for Pakistan, but there is no evidence the cost bothers India. There’s been no fighting for years, and the human cost of operating in the hostile environment has steadily come down as both sides have learned to live there. There is no reason for India to agree to any withdrawal, because Pakistan can occupy Indian positions within hours. And the vulnerability applies to Pakistan.

· The only thing we can think of is that there is some trouble in the Northern Light Infantry, Pakistan’s high mountain regiment. Even though after it was regularized subsequent to the Kargil War 1999, as a consequence of which 50% of the regiment is Punjabi, half still remains enlisted from locals. First, the locals are mainly Shia Muslims and Pakistani Sunnis, in common with their brethren worldwide, persecute the Shias. Second, the Northern Areas have been the scene of major crackdowns by the Pakistan Government because of local resentment against Islamabad. Third, the Chinese are now in the region in increasing numbers and this has to be causing more problems with the locals.


[/b]



· But again, we do not see how withdrawal will solve any of these issues for Pakistan. To begin with, the men died in an act of nature. No one is to blame. The NLI are professional soldiers, they serve because they want to and because in comparison with their meager economic circumstances the Army offers a very good living. We do not see how saying “Okay, we’re pulling you back” suddenly makes everything okay for the local soldiers of the regiment – assuming there is a problem. And if the other issues we discussed are in some way making the locals less reliable, Pakistan has a population of 180-million. It can recruit replacements and make the NLI 75% or even 100% Punjabi within a few months. It can also post NLI battalions outside the region – since the regiment is now a regular regiment, Pakistan in any case sends NLI battalions where they are needed.

We see that Indian side also has been visiting the forward areas. something is going on

Image
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by ManuT »

Viv ji, Sudeepj gone awol. 

Though IMO it is not a sin to ask around. It was not like he was cheating on a partner or something. Maybe his questions have been answered. I felt there was a certain urgency to his questions. I wonder why?

What I learnt out of him is something more about the BR after life. Some happy, some glee some people bitter like a Jelly Bean.

I did 'wonder' about RayC (in the discussion on the site posing as being websites for countries of mutually hostile countries) which was called out at BRF. But I don't 'wonder why' as a counter argument. 

I thank him for bringing some news of BR alumni especially Sunil on this thread. (I don't think he got banned). I know the realities of life, just do not like voices getting splintered.

Kiyani is running to the area as if there is a Nobel Peace Prize in it. My take is, his peace proposal only says 'Jihad kar ul seedha, sil billa tha ya bil silla, ... we mean peace, we are not going to be taking any initiatives before we figure out this mess. In the meantime you do the same. Please.'. At least he is becoming polite. 

Kiyani saheb, 
aap youn hi agar pahad chadtey rahe,
dekiye ek din cigarette chooth jayega.

Truth might be more mundane, maybe they found some of the remain at the avalanche site, so Chief Ghazi goes up to decide what to make public. (The pressure to authenticate will grow 400% to TSPA when bodies come home.)

Mutiny might be too much to imagine at the forward bases (I mean with the supply cut off what are they going to do? They can cross over to the Indians.) Low morale is more likely.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by eklavya »

Excellent article by Kanwar Sibal, former Foreign Secretary:

Why must India make territorial concessions?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... z1uCndLa9H
The argument that an Indian concession on Siachen will strengthen the hands of Pakistan's civilian government in its peace efforts is dubious as we are being asked to appease the Pakistan army for failing to dislodge us from Saltoro.

How will placating it strengthen the army's disposition towards India and the civilian authority in Pakistan itself?

If prior to Kargil India was disposed to end the Saltoro stand-off by experimenting with Pakistan's trustworthiness, with reducing the human cost of occupying such forbidding heights as additional reason, after Kargil India has strong reason to be deeply distrustful of Pakistani intentions.

What is the guarantee that safeguards built into any agreement will not be violated by Pakistan at an opportune time, as happened at Kargil? Meanwhile, with technical and infrastructural improvements the human cost has come down drastically.
What is the compulsion to place faith in an adversary that still fails to address India's key concerns? The jihadi groups in Pakistan still exist; Hafiz Saeed is not being curbed; those responsible for Mumbai have not been tried even after four years and to Kashmir has now been added the emotive issue of water.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by eklavya »

Aroon Purie also makes some good arguments:

India Today Editor-in-Chief Aroon Purie on negotiations between India and Pakistan to demilitarise Siachen
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indi ... 87330.html
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh wants to show a concrete policy achievement before he leaves office. A dramatic agreement with Pakistan on Siachen might help his personal cause. For the country, it may however amount to surrender for very little gain. The Prime Minister has to find bigger fish to fry if he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by Jarita »

^^^ I just don't get Manmohan Singh. This is one person who is unable to relate to Indians but loves the west.
Can someone explain the psychology of this guy? What is driving him towards repeated compromises on India?
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by nachiket »

Jarita wrote: What is driving him towards repeated compromises on India?
Nobel piss prize and leaving his own legacy. But that is OT for this thread.
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Re: Siachen News & Discussion

Post by sudeepj »

ManuT wrote:Viv ji, Sudeepj gone awol. .
I am very much around and following the discussion. Viv's issue is an ideological one and there is no point in repeating one anothers ideology again.

@Rohit,

Basically, looking at the map, I see no way an offensive operation can be mounted through those passes and over that terrain. I have highlighted earlier why I think so. To repeat, the terrain is awful, even more so on from the Shaksgam valley side, where the Urdok, Stagahar glaciers are basically just ice pinnacles (because of the steep grade towards Shaksgam, 1 in 10 compared to the 1 in 20, 1 in 30 on the Siachen side). No one can think or running a snow mobile on the Shaksgam glaciers.

Further, if the Pakistanis and Chinese 'link up' in the area, it will be a tentative handshake over several tens of kms over terrible terrain for both armies. Either over Stagahar/Urdok via Shaksgam, or via KKM/Saser La for Chinese, and via the Sia/Bilafond/Gyong La for Pakistanis. If the chinese come over KKM/Saser, once again, we will have plenty of notice due to our advanced defensive line along the Kunlun mountains/DBO. This link up will be devoid of any heavy equipment, and will be opposed from the mouth of the Glacier by the Indian forces, who will have heavy weapons (BMPs, tanks, MLRS and medium guns) at their disposal, as well as forward landing grounds/road links. If the Pakistanis and the Chinese are stupid enough to attack this route, their soldiers will freeze to death, as their logistics link air bridge and dumps are destroyed.

So basically, without an air bridge, such an invasion route is impossible. With the air superiority required to establish an airborne supply route, the odd battalion sitting on the ridge can do nothing can stop the invasion which will vertically envelop the posts.

Chalunka though, remains a problem. It was a pleasant surprise to hear some of what we are talking about here on the NDTV program, if you had the ears tuned for the discussion points. For e.g. Gurmeet Kanwal specifically mentioned chalunka/chulung for joint security/monitoring.

Lastly, from the program, it appears that there is tremendous distrust in the IA towards the PA. This is to be expected after pakistani actions.. Some more CBMs from the Pakistani Army, as opposed to the civvies (such as trade/tourism) are in order.

Lastly, even on Siachen itself, there are a number of disengagement pathways possible. E.g.
1. Restore pre Meghdoot position and have the CFL run true north. This is a huge concession to Pakistan and the corresponding concession from them will also have to be large (and not a paper concession or a promise to do something in the future, but something thats a concrete deliverable.)
1.5 Premeghdoot, but demarcate and delineate some positions north of NJ9842, to make the line more favorable to Indian security in Shyok vallley. This is a smaller concession than (1).
1.75 Premeghdoot, demarcate/delineate some positions north of NJ9842, blow up the goma-chulung road on the Pakistani side :D. This is an even smaller concession than 1.75
2. Recognize AGPL by on the ground authentication, visits of international military attaches etc. Then as per military logic, the situation deescalates. This is not a concession, though by verification of AGPL, and knowing that India will not be the aggressor, the Pakistanis can deescalate on their side and save some money by their own actions. This is not much concession by either side.
3. Recognize AGPL by turning it into LoC. This will be a concession to India as true North meaning of CFL is changed and LoC will run North-Northwest after NJ9842.

At the end of the day, diplomats will need to be creative if this dispute is to be solved.

*all IMO only.. :)
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