Iran-Israel Conflict: News & Discussions: 14 April 2024

[rajkumar]

Iran launches drones on Israel

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-m ... t-68737710

[sanman]

US Shooting Down Iranian Drones Flying Towards Israel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxbPrbmg9U4

[Pratyush]

Their goes the neighborhood.

[srin]

Stupid move by Iranians. So far they were clever in having plausible deniability, however dubious, in the various proxy wars in middle East. This allowed them to confront Arab powers via Houthis, Israel via Hizbolla and probably Hamas. This also allowed them to have a nuclear program. They were also beginning some rapprochement with Saudis.

Now, they have handed the casus belli to Israel and US, and put their nuclear program at huge risk. I eee lot of parallels with First gulf war. They just made the same mistake as Saddam.

I don't think the West or Israel will regret this opportunity to destroy Iran, something they have wanted to do for a long time.

First, they will go on defensive, building a case for retaliation. Cue CNN visuals of people in raid shelters and some damaged buildings. Then rally allies and do a massive airstrike. Oh yeah, more sanctions.

Ukraine is toast. Israel is much more important, so will be thrown out like used khandom. There may be a deal with Russia for Iran sanctions in return for throwing Ukraine under the bus.
Oil price is going to hit the roof, which can impact elections here.

[A Deshmukh]

looks like all the drones and missiles were intercepted.
good air defense network makes a huge difference.

in ukr the same drones seemed successful, as Rus has taken out Ukr's AD network.
(also Ukr is much larger than Israel, so the density of AD would be far more in Israel)

[srin]

They probably used Patriot missiles, but I am curious to know if Barak 8 were used and if so, how they fared.

[williams]

Stupid move by Iranians. So far they were clever in having plausible deniability, however dubious, in the various proxy wars in middle East. This allowed them to confront Arab powers via Houthis, Israel via Hizbolla and probably Hamas. This also allowed them to have a nuclear program. They were also beginning some rapprochement with Saudis.

Now, they have handed the casus belli to Israel and US, and put their nuclear program at huge risk. I eee lot of parallels with First gulf war. They just made the same mistake as Saddam.

I don't think the West or Israel will regret this opportunity to destroy Iran, something they have wanted to do for a long time.

First, they will go on defensive, building a case for retaliation. Cue CNN visuals of people in raid shelters and some damaged buildings. Then rally allies and do a massive airstrike. Oh yeah, more sanctions.

Ukraine is toast. Israel is much more important, so will be thrown out like used khandom. There may be a deal with Russia for Iran sanctions in return for throwing Ukraine under the bus.
Oil price is going to hit the roof, which can impact elections here.

It seems Tactical brilliance is the hallmark of all Islamic military strategy. There is going to be a retaliation and Iran has nothing to defend against a similar attack from Israel. If the US and Brits join the party, Iran is toast. Ukraine is toast already. Pakis will look for ways to rent themselves out instead of enhanced begging.

[Aditya_V]

But Iran will retaliate in the Straits of Hormuz, while Iran will loose much of its infra, None of these countries can occupy Iran, and with Ukraine situation, Russia will keep supplying Iran. It will completely drain out NATO, China will defentaly take advantage of such a situation.

US , UK may loose access to the.Middle East. Will it be worth it?

[A Deshmukh]

But Iran will retaliate in the Straits of Hormuz,

If they attack the shipping, US Navy will decimate the Iranian Navy.
Iranian Navy will be reduced to acting like Somali pirates - one-off attacks.
Unless they sink one or two VLCC ships and completely block the straits of Hormuz. possible but not likely to be successful.

[srin]

The problem is not in Hormuz strait, but in Persian gulf. If they start drone ship attacks on oil tankers, the oil price is going to go through the roof. They will estimate that this would cause the world to back a ceasefire.

[Pratyush]

I am concerned about the reaction of Indian Shia Muslims.

Second. do the Iranian Mullas think that they can keep their civil society in check in the face of US and western military pressure.

Third, in the face of Iranian efforts to block the straits of Hormuz. Will the Saudi and UAE navies keep quiet and allow for disruption of their oil trade to PRC and India?

[Aditya_V]

Even if the US sinks the Iranian Navy, the shape of the Persian gulf allows for lots of shore based Drones, missiles as well launch from small boats, and Russia has every reason to give them to the Iranians . Occupying Iran when Occupying Iraq or Afghanistan is a non starter.

[Tanaji]

I think this was a fixed match with the role of Azharuddin being cosplayed by the Iranian mullahs. Israel has significantly degraded Hamas in Gaza and Irans proxy Hezbollah has not been able to do much about it. Moreover with the strike in Syria, Irans H&D has been significantly destroyed, so ever it is expected to act against Israel to maintain its status among the greens.

Only Iran knows it well get annihilated if it carries out a serious act. It has just witnessed Hamas being taken to the cleaners. Iran has ballistic missiles that can cause serious damage. Instead of using those, what does it do? It uses those slow moving Shaheen type drones to carry out the attack. They are so slow that it took couple of hours for them to arrive in Israel, in fact BBC was providing a time for them to arrive. Everyone had plenty of time to counter and minimise damage. As expected , about 99% were taken out after which Iran dutifully said “attack is concluded” so that it doesnt get whacked by mistake.

I wouldnt be surprised if both Unkil, US and poodles were all involved in this fixing.

[Anujan]

Our western neighbour would be offering her services to monitor Iran activity. Also bases if matters escalate.

All for a few dollars of course.

[Aditya_V]

I agree with Tanaji, I guess the attack on the consulate was and error by the IDF, and this has been the way out to keep Iran H& D intact. There will be significant pain for the world economy if this escalates.

[Hriday]

Mario Nawfal report below. See the IDF spokesman's statement embedded in the reply.

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/ ... QwNOg&s=19

UPDATE: IRAN MISSLE HIT/MISS RATE

331 missiles and drones launched by Iran at Israel:

- 185 out of 185 Kamikaze Drones were shot down

- 103 out of 110 Ballistic Missiles were shot down

- 36 out of 36 Cruise Missiles were shot down

- 7 Ballistic Missile impacts have been recorded on Israeli territory

Source: visegrad24

IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari says slight damage was caused to the infrastructure at Ramon, but the airbase is running as usual.

There is a video of 6 ballistic missile strikes on Ramon airbase provided by @IranObserver0. His timeline contains missile strikes from several different angles. Link below.

https://twitter.com/IranObserver0/statu ... Mefiw&s=19

In the past Iran had shown its technological mastery in ballistic missiles by very accurate hits on Iraqi airbase. But IDF and @BabakThaghvaee says only minor damage in the infrastructure and the hits were in open areas of airbase. So GPS jamming worked ? Or Iran decided not to escalate the situation too much ?


@Pataramesh had a nice Twitter thread summarising the Iranian missiles. He talks about CRPA antenna to overcome GPS jamming, seeker equipped long range ballistic missiles etc. Link below.

https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1 ... 39oWw&s=19

@pati_marins64 who is a well informed commentator in military affairs described Iran as a dark horse in missile technologies citing large numbers of quality papers submitted by Iranian engineers.

@Pataramesh will frequently point out that Iran and its proxies can easily out number Israeli SAM coverage by saturation strike of drones. Will USA and Israel will run out of expensive SAMs in an all out war ?

For those who are interested in this topic, I suggest them to follow @MarioNawfal, @Pataramesh, @IranObserver0, @BabakThaghvaee, @sentdefender etc in X. Can anyone suggest better ones to follow the topic in X ?

[srai]

^^^
Slow moving drones are really only useful as saturation decoys. Exhaust SAM batteries.

Lesson for India is to induct more affordable AD options for countering drones. Using Barak-8, Akash etc not sustainable in large numbers.

[Manish_P]

^^^
Slow moving drones are really only useful as saturation decoys. Exhaust SAM batteries.

Which is very useful indeed.

Every SAM they tempt and draw fire towards themselves is a SAM less to be faced by the manned (or unmanned) Aircraft performing SEAD/DEAD...

[putnanja]

Iran is surrounded by sunni islamic countries, which will be providing overt or covert support to US/Israel and try to negotiate with them for support.

[sanjaykumar]

This is an excellent opportunity for Pakistan to offer its good orifices.

[Hriday]

Some assessments on Iranian strike. All of these from @Pataramesh timeline and his replies in X. I may not frequently post his comments here as it will be too much work and duplication. So please follow him for some quality coverage of the topic.

1. Comments on the missile accuracy and escalation control by @Pataramesh.
https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1 ... acJ1Q&s=19

Like in the Ain-al-Assad, they again displayed their capability to accurately hit the runway.
This time at 1200km distance instead of 500km

F-35 hangars were not hit

In Operation Truthful Promise, there are certainly proportionally aspects taken into consideration.

2. https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1 ... dYHVA&s=19

But if the velocity trim function has not been mastered well and a high-grade FOG IMU deemed to expensive for Rezvan;
CEP could reach ~100m and then the damage to the hardened airbase could be very limited.

3. Comments on the missile hit accuracy by an OSINT handle @AuroraIntel.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/ ... yHUnw&s=19

NIR imagery (Near Infrared) does appear to show the impact just south of the taxiway, not the taxiway itself, CEP (impact accuracy) at this distance is impressive. Higher resolution still required, but feels more conclusive the more I look.

4. Cost of conflict on both parties.

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/177 ... drJng&s=19

#Iran's cost of all its missiles and drones fired reached:

$35 million - Sources.

#Israel's cost (without the price of the US-UK-Israeli jets and missiles) of interception system:

$1 bn per Israeli official.

@Pataramesh had earlier commented that Iran possess hypersonic, atmospheric skipping, highly manuerable, seeker equipped ballistic missiles which will be near impossible for interception.
Considering the relatively small size of drone barrage, it looks like Iran don't want to escalate beyond a point. Any comments ?

[Hriday]

It is said that the airbase that got hit is Nevatim, not Ramon. Also there is a talk of 7-15 missile hits inside Israel.

[srai]

Now it depends on the Israeli response. If Israel retaliates then the conflict will become a full fledged one.

If Israel doesn’t retaliate further, then it will be similar to what occurred when the US assassinated an Iraqi general in Iraq. Iran responded with missile attack on a US airbase in Iraq. No real damage or casualties. The US did not respond back and the situation de-escalated.

[srin]

I don't think it's much of a choice. If they don't strike back and strike back hard, they will be regarded as wimps and Iran will be emboldened to do this again in future. They need to create the deterrence. It'd be political and strategic suicide.

On the other hand, this maybe a nice trap by Iran to snag some F35s with some unknown air defense system. I don't know what long range missiles Israel has in its arsenal.

I'm reading that US has told Israel that they wouldn't back a retaliatory strike. If true, Iran would have ignored American warnings to not go ahead without being punished, and American warnings have no deterrence anymore.

Even so, I find it hard to believe that the Americans won't provide intel or weapons that would enable the Israeli strike.

[srai]

^^^
Had the strike caused damage, then retaliation would have been supported. The US did its part of defending Israel in shooting down large numbers of the drones/missiles.

Arab countries have also specifically stated they won’t support the use of US bases in their territories for retaliation.

[Aditya_V]

BY Directly bombing a Iranian Consulate and Israeli strikes in Syria have unnecessary upped the tempo, while Hezbollah has so far more or less just created fig leaf while Gaza has been the main show. And Qatar with many American troops has been the main backer of Hamas. Surely the US had enough and more leverage to shut Hamas long time back.

There are wheels within wheels, I suspect the long term goal is move most of these Gazans to Europe.

[S_Madhukar]

Agreed with Tanaji. This is set match. Elections year no one wants more oil inflation. Makes Biden look like peace maker and Iran gets to flex its muscles to give some support to its lost proxies after the flattened Gaza. Who would give such advanced warnings ! After Ukraine doubt anyone has ammunition left to take on Iran unless Pakis want to play the 80s game

[srai]

…

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/ ... QwNOg&s=19
UPDATE: IRAN MISSLE HIT/MISS RATE

331 missiles and drones launched by Iran at Israel:

- 185 out of 185 Kamikaze Drones were shot down

- 103 out of 110 Ballistic Missiles were shot down

- 36 out of 36 Cruise Missiles were shot down

- 7 Ballistic Missile impacts have been recorded on Israeli territory

Source: visegrad24
…

Iranian deterrence credibility very low. This is the second time their mass retaliation amounted to nothing.

Their proxy wars using Hamas, Hezbollah, Shiite militias (Iraq & Syria) have been more effective comparively.

[Tanaji]

As we predicted, even the match fixer is admitting it fixed the match:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-04-14/

Iran says it gave 72 hour notice.

[srin]

I still don't believe that Israel won't retaliate.

Of course, it is in US interest (as well as all the nations going to elections like us Indians too) that there is no conflict between Iran and Israel, given the impact it'd have on crude prices and therefore, inflation and economy and consequently, the elections. The US democratic party's relationship with Netanyahu is so-so. So, US would do what it can do discourage an Israeli retaliation. Understandable.

Iran obviously wouldn't want to be hit, so it'd be in their interest to say that the action is "concluded", but only having demonstrated to the Arab street that they are the ones who are safeguarding Palestinian interest, and hence they want to show that they are not only safeguarding Shia interests, but also the Islamic interest in ME.

The real audience is the Arab (and other Islamic nations') streets. If Israel doesn't retaliate, it'd lose its street creds that have been the cornerstone of its deterrence - the Israel that hunted down the Munich massacre perpetrators, that hunted down the Nazis hiding in South America, that wiped out the combined might of Arab nations in the 6-day war and the Yom Kippur war. If they don't do anything, Iran would use the "camel's nose in the tent" tactic to have a slightly more aggressive response the next time and so on.

For Israel's survival, they have to strike back and in a big way that will bolster its deterrence. They can't afford do the wimpy thing that we did post 26/11. They have to be the regional military bully and they have to call the bluff. No choice.

[Atmavik]

^^^
Had the strike caused damage, then retaliation would have been supported. The US did its part of defending Israel in shooting down large numbers of the drones/missiles.

Arab countries have also specifically stated they won’t support the use of US bases in their territories for retaliation.

support for israel in US was declining as the gaza war kept on dragging. this strike by Iran has reversed that. there will be an Israeli response. it may not be immediate or direct but there will be one.

[hgupta]

If Israel retaliate then Iran will be forced to respond. Iran gave Israel a face saving way out while giving itself one out. It seems that Netanyahu is hell bent on creating a war with Iran. Look at Ukraine and Russia. Everyone thought that Russia was gonna steamroll over Ukraine and that didn't happen. The same thing will happen with Israel and Iran. Israel has no ability to steamroll over Iran. And even Arab states will not allow overflights of Israeli fighter planes. They will shut their airspace to Israeli warplanes.

And furthermore, Iran is now hell bent in developing a working nuke as a deterrent. They will not stop. They will pursue it at all costs. Netanyahu has the tactical brilliance of a strategic deficient mind.

[Arima]

Israel interception of 99% of missiles and drones look excellent. but question is how much of it was achieved with help of US and UK electronics and counter battery involvement?
lot of talks about billion dollar being spent to shoot 300 drones and missiles which cost few thousands per piece. who can sustain such 1 side cost?
what if tomorrow Israel is alone in a shooting war?

Iran wanting nukes at all cost seem to have parallel from what is going on in Libya, Ukr, Noko where absence/presence of nukes can kill/preserve regime.

[Pratyush]

^^^^

The more important questions to ask is how many such days can Israel and it's backers have. Before, the Iranian attacks start hitting targets.

[williams]

Let us see how Israel responds. There is international pressure to not respond. But attack with BM and CM needs a response. otherwise Iran will not be deterred to do something similar in the future.

[hgupta]

Well Iran wouldn't have to respond if Israel didn't attack the Iranian embassy. That was tantamount to declaration of war. US or Israel would have done the same thing in Iran's shoes.

[Aditya_V]

Well Iran wouldn't have to respond if Israel didn't attack the Iranian embassy. That was tantamount to declaration of war. US or Israel would have done the same thing in Iran's shoes.

+1 a point lost on many, Iran had to respond with a public show of force. While no doubt Western Miltary can destroy large almost all parts of Irans Miltary , and make large parts of its Cities Rubble- what next?

Given Iran coast, Russian help and ability to directly reach Russia, there will be much pain the Persian Gulf and it will be easy to China- Russia the get the West into an endless war , sapping all resources, morale etc.

The only real gainer will be China, unless Iran pushes the self destruct button, it will be foolish of the West to escalate this to a level beyond a level.

[Pratyush]

^^^

The counter point that, why is no one is paying attention to is the presence of those officers in that location?

They were not there planning a sexual orgy. Were they?