According to the Article -
India, Russia to have different versions of same fighter plane
Sandeep Unnithan
New Delhi, September 29, 2008
Quote:
The FGFA is to enter squadron service by 2015 and will replace at least three classes of aircraft in the IAF.
The primary differences - design changes because of India wanting twin-seat configuration, and also larger combat radius.
Now - the Russian version of PAK-FA in single-seater configuration T-50 is to begin test flight next year. With design changes being brought about for the Indian PAK-FA - what would be a reasonable start time for flight testing that configuration - 2012?
IMO 2015 for entering squadron service may not be impossible. But if they are promising 2015, I am inclined to be a skeptic and estimate it will be more like 2016-17. The induction rate is highly unlikely to exceed 12-15 a/c per year. And if the investment of $5B is to be amortized, a purchase of >200 will need made.
The most curious element is that the FGFA will replace
at least three classes of aircraft in IAFAre they talking three classes? or are they talking three types?
A request for BR members - can we come up likely retirement schedule of IAF aircrafts?
Mig-21
Mig-23
Mig-27
Mig-29 -- IIRC the upgrade news indicated that their life will be extended such that retirement would be in the 2020-2025 window. IMO Mig-29 and Mirage upgrades are designed to allow staggered retirement of both these aircrafts and replacement with one single type.
Jaguar -- I know the last one recently came off the production line, however the retirement will begin with the first ones... retirement of early jags slated to be begin 2020?
Mirage -- the Mirage upgrade is suppose to extend life by 25 years. That would imply the retirement schedule for 52 Mirages (with replacement rate of 13 per year) will have be some where between 2024-2029
Based only on numbers it appears that the IAF will be retiring aircraft as follows:
Mig-21 replacement by LCA (perhaps MK1, MK2, ...) with first induction starting 2010/11. Are Mig-21s likely to replaced 1:1 with LCA? IMO unlikely because of production constraints. More likely numbers of LCA are around 200. [which leaves 200 Mig-21s replacement up in the air]
Mig-23 -- retired and replaced by SU-30 MKI (??)
Mig-27 -- 160+ in service. To be replaced by SU-30MKI and MRCA (??) -- considering that the upgraded Mig-27 are to be retired by 2020-25?
NOTE:
1. Total SU-30 MKI to be inducted is ~230 (40+10+140+40) -- this balances 1:1 retirement of both Mig-23 and Mig-27 [induction of all MKI to be complete by 2014]
2. MRCA -- 126+(80??) - begin induction optimistically 2012
- initial inductions along with LCA will compensate for lost aircrafts that have not been replaced (primarily Mig-21s)
- later inductions will balance retirement of some of the earlier jags to come about close to 2020;
Even if MRCA order extends order to include the +80 and MRCA is to replace Mig-21 1:1 it can barely replace half of Mig-21s -- where is the other half going to come from?
3. LCA -- 20 (+10 training) -- replace one squadron of Mig-21 by 2015. Hopefully, further orders will allow LCA to replace Mig-21 1:1 -- for over half of the Mig-21s to be replaced.
4. FGFA -- induction begins 2018-2020. These will go directly into replacing the Mig-29 and Mirage 2K and tail end retirement of Jaguars.