NoKo-SoKo War crisis

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Philip
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Philip »

Critics,what has the US got to do with Korea? Barring a military arrangement with SoKo,which has kept the North "imprisoned" to them,preventing them from assimilating the south,nothing.The same yardstick applies to Afghanistan.Here at least the initial desire topunish the perpetrators of 9/11 could be justified,but now the war has lasted longer than the Vietnam War.The US is now part of the problem not the solution! Look,if you for decades have kept a military presence on the Korean peninsula,sabre-rattled year after year with the SoKos,condemned a paranoid regime like that of NoKo day after day,what do you think will be their response if you steam a nuclear carrier task force below their noses so that they can smell your hate?

At least the SoKo military fired back in anger (unlike India) and even the SoKos felt that this was an inadequate response so their Def. Min. honourably resigned.Compare that with India where our dishonourable PM still stays glued to his seat despite scandal after scandal disgraces his regime each day.The man has no shame.He hans't even the guts to slap Pak diplomatically across its wrists.Had this happened to a Japanese PM,he would've honourably comitted sepukku in true samurai fashion.On the second anniversary of 276/11,let's remember that Kasab still lives.
Last edited by Philip on 26 Nov 2010 13:38, edited 4 times in total.
Lalmohan
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Lalmohan »

suryaji, there is a time and place for lalchix
that said, korean girls do have the most perfect teeth i have ever seen
but seriously folks, this is a real crisis - perhaps on a scale of the cuban missile crisis
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

Philip wrote:Critics,what has the US got to do with Korea? Barring a military arrangement with SoKo,which has kept the North "imprisoned" to them,preventing them from assimilating the south,nothing.The same yardstick applies to Afghanistan.Here at least the initial desire topunish the perpetrators of 9/11 could be justified,but now the war has lasted longer than the Vietnam War.The US is now part of the problem not the solution! Look,if you for decades have kept a military presence on the Korean peninsula,sabre-rattled year after year with the SoKos,condemned a paranoid regime like that of NoKo day after day,what do you think will be their response if you steam a nuclear carrier task force below their noses so that they can smell your hate?
Philip,

I sometimes wonder if you even understand/read what you write. The other explanation is that your blind hatred/dislike for US clouds your judgment.

Are you seriously trying to say that you are against the US because their presence in the Korean peninsular has prevented the world's most brutal regime of Kim Jong-il from overtaking a thriving, prosperous and peaceful democratic country a process which you very sweetly call assimilation? Are you serious, do you understand what you're writing?

And you apply the same logic to Afghanistan, do you mean to say because of the US, Pakistan is not (rightfully, perhaps in your jaundiced worldview) being able to reclaim its "strategic depth"?

You comment that the US is a part of the problem and not the solution reads like its straight out of the publicity brochure of Hamid Gul and his pals.
Look,if you for decades have kept a military presence on the Korean peninsula,sabre-rattled year after year with the SoKos,condemned a paranoid regime like that of NoKo day after day,what do you think will be their response if you steam a nuclear carrier task force below their noses so that they can smell your hate?
This comment of yours takes the cake. There should be some award constituted on BRF for gems like this. You mean to say that if the Americans didn't have presence in the peninsular, Kim would have been a happy and friendly dictator? A darling of the world perhaps?

I suggest you read up the Korean conflict. For your information the North Korean forces invaded South Korea in June 1950. Then the UN forces, including the US, went in to help the South Koreans and the UN counter offensive went almost up to the Yalu River and then the Chinese panicked and came to the aid of the North Koreans and then we had the stalemate which resulted in the Demilitarized zone.

Really Philip I think you should read your post before hitting the submit button.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

vardhank wrote:Excuse my ignorance... what's this QE2/QE3 thing?
Boss QE2 refers to the US' Quantitative Easing, which in simple terms means that the US is printing more dollars which in effect would drive down the value of the dollar in relation to other currencies, among other things. This is a $600 billion dollar move and has the nomenclature 2 because this is the second time they are doing this after the first one last year which was worth about $2 trillion.

Where does China come in? Well they happen to hold around $2 trillion in the forex reserves and so any depreciation of the value of the dollar affects the intrinsic value of the hoard. But more importantly if the USD becomes cheaper then the cost of Chinese exports go up leading to a tapering of demand for Chinese goodies and that affects the profitability of the Chinese sweat shops, leading to unemployment and bust. In other words if the USD becomes cheaper in relation to the Yuan it hurts the Chinese economy and could potentially break its export led model.

Needless to say you can imagine what would happen to the CPC if growth rates tapered off in China. That's why it's their red line.

JMT
Philip
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Philip »

Amit,please,don't compare me with Hamid Gul of all people,I haven't his diabolic capabilities! You haven't understood the nuances of my post .Fistly,I'm not rooting for NoKo and the Great Leader's family at all.One however has to understand as I've said its "paranoia".It has felt for decades that the ultimate aim of the US/SoKo is to strangle it economically and diplomatically by degrees and then overthrow it.Several US commentators have many a time expressed their opinion that the NoKo nuclear gambit was made in order to prevent its regime from being overthrown both from without and within.The SoKos have for decades been trying to engineer a coup against the Kim leadership. The regular NoKo missile tests are meant to warn off the "encircling " powers of SoKo and Japan ,both of whom are military allies of the US.Its actions are also a warning to China to keep on supporting it as the eco ties between China and the US have grown immeasurably and there is a lurking fear that China may one day be forced to intervene (perhaps by installing a new regime) in NoKo affairs so that its economic surge with western investment remains intact.

At this critical juncture when Dear Leader Kim is handing over the reins of power to his son,a strong NoKo message to the South,which has provoked it (according to the North) by conducting military exercises in a disupted island,is meant to show the NoKo home front that the Kim dynasty is the saviour of the NoKo people.If you've followed US/SoKo reports on the transition of power,they've been full of "propaganda" about resentment at this son taking over,quoting his disgraced son in exile,about murmurings in the NoKo army,etc.The statements at regular intervals from the US about the "rogue regime" and the need to defang it of N-weapons only adds to NoKo paranoia.It is the most paranoid regime on the planet.

To send in a huge US naval carrier task force along with SoKo warships is as I've said,a "red rag to a bull".One intriguing Q.How come the USS Jimmy Carter was actually in the vicinity of the island and able to immediately launch its drones to monitor the artillery duel which lasted only for a few hours? Its presence,that of a Seawolf sub,so close to NoKo waters even before the flag went up is highly intriguing! Is there more to this Korean spat that lies beneath the waves and have we seen just the tip of the iceberg?
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

Philip wrote:It has felt for decades that the ultimate aim of the US/SoKo is to strangle it economically and diplomatically by degrees and then overthrow it.Several US commentators have many a time expressed their opinion that the NoKo nuclear gambit was made in order to prevent its regime from being overthrown both from without and within.The SoKos have for decades been trying to engineer a coup against the Kim leadership. The regular NoKo missile tests are meant to warn off the "encircling " powers of SoKo and Japan ,both of whom are military allies of the US.Its actions are also a warning to China to keep on supporting it as the eco ties between China and the US have grown immeasurably and there is a lurking fear that China may one day be forced to intervene (perhaps by installing a new regime) in NoKo affairs so that its economic surge with western investment remains intact.
Tell me something Philip. Do you think it's a bad idea if a despotic murderer like Kim and his sons, who have caviar for breakfast while most NoKo citizens starve, is overthrown and the north is assimilated into a progressive and democratic South Korea which threatens no one and is busy improving the lot of its people? Just look at the potential. One artificial 4 km buffer zone on the 38th parallel and yet two different worlds, despite the same people, same culture and the same capacities. For the sake of the Koreans, who are very good people who love to drink, smoke and make merry and have great cultural traditions, even the Chinese are hooked to Korean movies an drama, I sincerely wish they can throw Kim and his son into the lap of his master Hu. If the US can assist in doing that, then all power to the US, I'd say.
To send in a huge US naval carrier task force along with SoKo warships is as I've said,a "red rag to a bull".One intriguing Q.How come the USS Jimmy Carter was actually in the vicinity of the island and able to immediately launch its drones to monitor the artillery duel which lasted only for a few hours? Its presence,that of a Seawolf sub,so close to NoKo waters even before the flag went up is highly intriguing! Is there more to this Korean spat that lies beneath the waves and have we seen just the tip of the iceberg?
Everyone here understands that the US is waving a "red rag" to provoke action, why do you see it as being bad if the South Koreans are willing to fight? I personally think the "red rag" is more for China than Kim and his son. Despite all the bluster and image of paranoia Kim wouldn't lift a finger without Hu's nod. I think the US has finally decided to call the Panda's bluff and from India's perspective I think that a good thing.

From you anti-US perspective I know you think it's bad. But for a change why don't you think about it from India's perspective. If China gets a rebuff or is engaged by the US on the Korean peninsular don't you think its good news for India?

PS: My bad in bringing in Hamid Gul. So apologies. However, I must say I was totally taken aback by your comment that US is a part of the problem not part of the solution in Afghanistan - which seemed to indicate that you think if the US gets out then All Izz Well in that unfortunate nation.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Philip »

Amit,I am opposed to military intervention by outside powers unless it directly impinges upon the affected neighbour.India in '71,10m refugees from E.Pak and Indira spent a whole year fruitlessly warning the west about the situ.Interventionism of the US style-getting rid of people whose face you don't like, gives legitimacy to Pak's proxy war against India,as Mush-a-rat keeps on squealing about.

In the last decade we've seen the lies that allowed Iraq to be ravaged.Lakhs of civilians killed and we well know what war crime atrocities were perpetrated by the invaders.In Afghanistan the US had the right to intervene after 9/11 with Osama hiding there.I draw the line in intervention in N.Korea as it is for the NoKo regime to collapse by itself as Pak's will if the US stops its military and eco aid.This provocative action by the US will only make the PRC come to NoKo's aid in China's own strategic interests.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Lalmohan »

this provocation is by the PRC, not the US
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Pratyush »

The US ought to go in along with the SoKO and forceabley assimilate the north. The population of the north will benefit from the forced assimilation. In the long run.

Enough of this communist paradice on earth.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

Philip wrote:In the last decade we've seen the lies that allowed Iraq to be ravaged.Lakhs of civilians killed and we well know what war crime atrocities were perpetrated by the invaders.In Afghanistan the US had the right to intervene after 9/11 with Osama hiding there.I draw the line in intervention in N.Korea as it is for the NoKo regime to collapse by itself as Pak's will if the US stops its military and eco aid.This provocative action by the US will only make the PRC come to NoKo's aid in China's own strategic interests.
And you think that China will allow N Korea to collapse just like that? You talk about Pakistan collapsing if US doesn't prop it up. Fair enough. Now answer a simple questions: Who is propping up North Korea? Surely not US (hint: look at the map to the north of Kim's kingdom).

Your point about PRC being provoked into coming to NoKo's aid is laughable. I hope you realise that. I'm sorry to say this but if you sincerely believe all the stuff your writing then you need to do more reading. I'd suggest you read Willam Pesak's article which I posted on the previous page, especially about suddenly finding ultra modern nuclear facilities in NoKo.

I'm sorry Philip I still maintain your blind feelings for the US is clouding your judgment. There's no way you can twist this into US and South Korea in the wrong and North Korea and China in the right. For heaven's sake it's NoKo which fired artillery shells on civilian areas!

And before you listen to your bleeding heart about poor Kim NoKo being bullied by the US, remember if any Paki missile falls on India at a future date, they would have originated in NoKo.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Pratyush »

Amit,

Please dont try to reason with some people on the forum when it comes to the US. They cannot see beyond the pathalogical and reflexive anti Americanism.

When push comes to shove and compared to the US every one else is a saint and the US is the greatest sinner in the world.

It is irrelevent for them that the North maintains the largest military relative to the population. Its defence budget is 25 % of the population. Vast majority of the population is inprisoned in what is the last stalinist state. The civilians are deprived of food while the minitary is well fed and equiped.

But it is that state that is a paragon of virtue. When compared to the US. It is a nation that made it people eat grass cakes in the early 2000s. Killing 0.5 million of its own people from mannurishment. Instead of distributing food aid from teh WFP. They stashed it for the Elite and the military.

But that is irrelevant for them.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by anishns »

^^^

+1 to you both :wink:
Now, if only the Russkies would step in....wonder whose side they will play on?
Pratyush wrote:Amit,

Please dont try to reason with some people on the forum when it comes to the US. They cannot see beyond the pathalogical and reflexive anti Americanism.

When push comes to shove and compared to the US every one else is a saint and the US is the greatest sinner in the world.

It is irrelevent for them that the North maintains the largest military relative to the population. Its defence budget is 25 % of the population. Vast majority of the population is inprisoned in what is the last stalinist state. The civilians are deprived of food while the minitary is well fed and equiped.

But it is that state that is a paragon of virtue. When compared to the US. It is a nation that made it people eat grass cakes in the early 2000s. Killing 0.5 million of its own people from mannurishment. Instead of distributing food aid from teh WFP. They stashed it for the Elite and the military.

But that is irrelevant for them.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Yagnasri »

What ever is the fortification one war starts US is likly to attack the leadership of north provided of course if Barak Hussain got guts to do that and once top leaders and kim gang is taken out then it will be comparitively easy.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Fidel Guevara »

Lalmohan wrote:suryaji, there is a time and place for lalchix
that said, korean girls do have the most perfect teeth i have ever seen
but seriously folks, this is a real crisis - perhaps on a scale of the cuban missile crisis
And the time & place is now! When I was on a recent business trip to Korea, my host told me that Korean girls, especially in Seoul/major cities, are the world's highest per-capita consumers of cosmetic surgery. As a result they have sharp noses, large eyes, perfect teeth, and atypical general features (compared to the Oriental stereotype), and are generally really good looking. If you look at any typical picture of a downtown Seoul street or a train carrying office workers, you will see what I mean. Parents often gift a "face-over" to their daughters at age 18...interesting!
Last edited by Fidel Guevara on 26 Nov 2010 20:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Rahul M »

Pratyush wrote:It is irrelevent for them that the North maintains the largest military relative to the population. Its defence budget is 25 % of the population. Vast majority of the population is inprisoned in what is the last stalinist state. The civilians are deprived of food while the minitary is well fed and equiped.

But it is that state that is a paragon of virtue. When compared to the US. It is a nation that made it people eat grass cakes in the early 2000s. Killing 0.5 million of its own people from mannurishment. Instead of distributing food aid from teh WFP. They stashed it for the Elite and the military.

But that is irrelevant for them.
FAR more important is the fact that NoKo has supplied BM tech to pakistan.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by ShivaS »

Korean (SoKo) is no longer Oriental or Eastern culture it is super Western (and the same fate befalls India) right from Conversion in Spiritually to Cosmetically is complete, How the east was won is new story to write and learn.
I digress
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by wig »

North korea and pakistan have both been armed with nuclear weapons and missiles technology proliferated by china. maybe they also picked some of the operational doctines from china. Observing north korea at such a critical juncture could be instructive at some stage of ongoing encounters / engagements with pakistan
the curious thing is the proximity of considerable USN maritime assets near N Korea. IMVHO maybe the N koreans will make some mistake and reveal the location ( if not already known) of N assets to satellite or other survelliance mechanisms extant over korea. this might be far fetched but maybe the N Koreans are being stimulated to reveal what they should not- their regime is going through a transition - a process that in my opinion is not smooth in totalitarian regimes.
observing the N Koreans go about their business and chinese diplomatic intrustions will be interesting . JMT
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Fidel Guevara »

ShivaS wrote:Korean (SoKo) is no longer Oriental or Eastern culture it is super Western (and the same fate befalls India) right from Conversion in Spiritually to Cosmetically is complete, How the east was won is new story to write and learn.
I digress
OT/ This is true in Korean and Chinese culture - look at Singapore and Hong Kong for example - but the Japanese still retain a strong core of their own culture. They have taken the best of the West and made it better, but still remain typically Japanese...that is where India should aim to be. /OT

Somebody posted about how a war will be good for Koreans to "toughen up". It seems that during the Korean War, Seoul was captured no less than 4 times - once in the initial NoKo invasion, then in the US counterattack, then by the Chinese counter-counter-offensive, and finally by the US/UN forces again - 4 conquests within one year! The Communists also killed off all the local leaders and intellectuals in each conquest. The US was no less brutal in their counter-offensives, with Operation "Killer" and Operation "Ripper" designed to cause massive enemy casualties, with no consideration for civilian casualties. Seoul's population went from 1.2M to 0.2M in one year, and at least half of the gap is due to deaths. For anybody, that is more than enough "toughening up"! As a result, the older Koreans are very much against increasing tensions with NoKo.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Lalmohan »

koreans are a tough bunch, and i wouldn't want them to get any tougher!
historically the northerners have been the more ferocious 'tiger hunters' but its a small country
i dont believe that they have diluted their culture too much - however historically they have been overshadowed by the chinese and japanese, and somehow managed to hold their own space
both north and south have strong military ethos and sense of sacrifice
another war on the korean peninsula is likely to be very violent indeed
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Philip »

Amit/Prat,you still don't get the picture.There is no love lost for Dear Leader Kim and his regime.Time will make things clear.You have to put yourself into your enemy's mind and think like him to be able to counter him.Hence my observations and analysis of NoKo's actions.Here,NoKo is the tail wagging the PRC dog...sorry...pig! What the NoKo regime wants is absolute non-interference in its internal affairs from the south,the continuation of the Kim dynasty and regular hnadouts of aid whenever it is in an eco crisis,through blackmail by its Nuclear and ballistic missile sabre-rattling.

The PRC's statement yesterday warning the US shows that it has reacted true to form,protecting its ally.The PRC has been assiduously using Pak and NoKO as proxies with which it can turn on the heat on two fronts against India and Japan/SoKo.Burma is the next catspaw being built up.I've been saying this for over a decade+ and the warning's have come true!

Compare the US's continuous propaganda against NoKo and that of its P-war against Iran and you see the similarities converging.It is a fact that for decades the US has been trying to unseat the Iranian Rev. govt. using internal disturbances just as the Pakis are trying to do in Kashmir.It has been less successful in NoKo as the Iranians have allowed a far greater degree of freedom in their country,where rivals within the revolution can contests against each other at election time.

Reports of an exodus of NoKo workers in Russia returning back to fight for the motherland.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... ote]Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war

By Shaun Walker in Moscow
Saturday, 27 November 2010
A mass exodus of North Korean workers from the Far East of Russia is under way, according to reports coming out of the region. As the two Koreas edged towards the brink of war this week, it appears that the workers in Russia have been called back to aid potential military operations.

Vladnews agency, based in Vladivostok, reported that North Korean workers had left the town of Nakhodka en masse shortly after the escalation of tension on the Korean peninsula earlier this week. "Traders have left the kiosks and markets, workers have abandoned building sites, and North Korean secret service employees working in the region have joined them and left," the agency reported.

[/quote]
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Pratyush »

Philip,

This is a country that must be allowed to collapse. It will be a humanitarian gesture for people of north to be released form the clutches of the Kim dynesty.

Will this crisis result in that. Dont know.

WRT, getting inside the head and thinking like them. You could be on to some thing. As it gives you an insighte of the motivations of the North
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by atma »

Analysis: US carrier visit a dilemma for China

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_koreas_cl ... a_analysis
"One of the results of North Korea's most recent belligerence has been to make it more difficult for China to condemn U.S. naval deployments in the East China Sea," said Michael Richardson, a visiting research fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. "I think China must be quietly cursing North Korea under their breath."
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Fidel Guevara »

amit wrote:
And you think that China will allow N Korea to collapse just like that? You talk about Pakistan collapsing if US doesn't prop it up. Fair enough. Now answer a simple questions: Who is propping up North Korea? Surely not US (hint: look at the map to the north of Kim's kingdom).
The one major difference is that Pakistan is self-sufficient in terms of food, and in basic agricultural commodities - cotton, etc. In the worst best case, when their entire pack of cards collapses, they will still have a functioning agricultural economy to fall back on. Whereas NoKo depends on foreign food and energy aid to keep people semi-fed and semi-warm.

Never thought I'd say this, but compared to NoKo, even the Pakis are living like Kings. In terms of roti, kapda, makaan, and even in general freedom to live as you wish (RAPE or Mullah or soosai bummer).
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Raghavendra »

Bad Cop Good Cop drama
North Korea "readies missiles", China to help ensure peace
http://www.zeenews.com/news670858.html
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by wig »

China calls for emergency talks amid Korea crisis
China has called for an emergency meeting of key nations amid tension in Korea over the North's deadly shelling of a Southern island.
It proposed that members of the six nations that have been taking part in talks on North Korean nuclear disarmament should meet in December.
The two Koreas, the US, China, Japan and Russia are involved in the talks.
Correspondents say South Korea's response has been non-committal and that it will consult other countries.
Tension remains high on the peninsula, with the US and South Korea undertaking joint military exercises the North has denounced as a provocation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11856454
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Luxtor »

Raghavendra wrote:Bad Cop Good Cop drama
North Korea "readies missiles", China to help ensure peace
http://www.zeenews.com/news670858.html
I agree, the Chinese are fully behind this "crisis". The Chicoms absolutely do not like it at all when the Americans send their military forces into that region anywhere close to the Chinese shores. Remember all the noises that the Chicoms made when a U.S. navy carrier group went through the Taiwan Straights a while ago? NoKo is the Chicoms' remote controlled robot and anytime the Chinese want to take a swing at Western interests they activate the robot.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by atma »

US, SKorea launch war games in tense Yellow Sea


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101128/ap_ ... reas_clash

This is good. Now Khan has an excuse to position a carrier group right into panda's armpit.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by rsingh »

US - Japan exercise from 3rd Dec.Panda is really offended.It is for the first time China is calling for 6 party talk :)
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

Philip wrote:Compare the US's continuous propaganda against NoKo and that of its P-war against Iran and you see the similarities converging.It is a fact that for decades the US has been trying to unseat the Iranian Rev. govt. using internal disturbances just as the Pakis are trying to do in Kashmir.It has been less successful in NoKo as the Iranians have allowed a far greater degree of freedom in their country,where rivals within the revolution can contests against each other at election time.
Philip,

Your "analysis" and the unnecessary == between NoKo and Iran is a classic example of why India's chatterati class are such nitwits when wading through the tough world of realpolitic. They get screwed at every turn and not just us Internet warriors but folks in power (and highly intelligent people) like Jairam Ramesh for example.

The problem is the Indian chatterati approach the whole issue of geopolitical events with a detached academic point of view, as if they are discussing theory in a class lecture on International Relations. Your comparison with US action against Iran and NoKo is a classic example of this.

Now we've got, for example, the supreme leader of Iran saying what he said about Kashmir. Then you've got NoKo supplying missiles to Pakistan which, god forbid, might one day land in our home towns and kill our friends and family. [I would have thought both issues would have been sufficient for someone who loves India to cleanse their system of any sympathy for these two nations, but choro not everyone is built with the same timbre]

On the other hand you've got your worldview that US is an international bully and it bullies all weaker nations to get what it wants to the alleged detriment of these nations - one reason why you show a visceral opposition to any dealings that India may have with the US. [Now do note I'm not saying you're absolutely wrong in assuming so, in fact your POV has quite a lot of merit but...(read on)]

You ignore the timeline: G20 meeting in Seoul> big disagreement between China and US on QE2, China shit scared on the effect such QEs can have on its economy> one week or so after G20, Panda's munna fires shells at civilian targets in SoKo > US SoKo not pleased and goes ahead with military exercises with the US giving a clear demonstration of its power by sending its most powerful subs and aircraft carrier to the exercise> Panda has a serious case of brown pants and calls for six-party talks. QE2 off the agenda (for now).

Now if for a change if you take off your academic robes and look at it in terms of what's there in it for India (I thought this should be something natural) then you'd see:

It suits India if US calls Panda's bluff in NoKo, it keeps the Panda busy in the Yellow Sea and with less time to lust for Arunachal. It also gets it thinking about the possible consequences if US gangs up with the more powerful India (in relation to SoKo) against China.

In Iran, it suits India if US keeps pressure on Iran as that could make that country look for allies and that's where India can come in to get concessions from that country. At the same time if Iran keeps harping on Kashmir, all India has to do is to indicate that if that's what Iran feels then India can side with the US.

I know you have a strong dislike for the US, I have no problems with that and more power to you. But when analyzing geopolitical events please do try to look at from the prism of: What's in it for India instead of an internationalist war cry against the US, the type for which gurus like Chomsky are so famous for.

It will take a bit of practice but I suggest you give it a try.
wig
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by wig »

North and South Korea move close to war footing
North and South Korea have moved closer to a war footing around the Yellow Sea island targeted in last week's artillery strike as tensions in the region continue to rise.
Pyongyang on Sunday moved SA2 surface-to-air missiles nearer to its Yellow Sea coast, according to South Korean military officials quoted by the Yonhap news agency. The officials said they also detected signs that North Korea was preparing multiple-launch rocket systems in the same area.

North Korea issued fresh warnings of military action, threatening to "deal a merciless military counterattack" at any "intrusion" into its territorial waters. The rhetoric came as four days of US- South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, involving the aircraft carrier George Washington, got under way - a deployment which the Pyongyang regime says has brought the region to the "brink of war."

The US has also agreed to a South Korean request to deploy the E8-C Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS), used in the 1991 Gulf War, according to military sources quoted by Yonhap. The deployment was approved by the US Defense Secretary, Robert Gates.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... oting.html
Ashutosh Malik
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Ashutosh Malik »

amit wrote:
Philip wrote:Compare the US's continuous propaganda against NoKo and that of its P-war against Iran and ..............
Philip,

Your "analysis" and the unnecessary == between NoKo and Iran is a classic example of why India's chatterati class are such nitwits when wading through the tough world of realpolitic. They get screwed at every turn and not just us Internet warriors but folks in power (and highly intelligent people) like Jairam Ramesh for example.

The problem is the Indian chatterati approach the whole issue of geopolitical events with a detached academic point of view, as if they are discussing theory in a class lecture on International Relations. Your comparison with US action against Iran and NoKo is a classic example of this.

....................

I know you have a strong dislike for the US, I have no problems with that and more power to you. But when analyzing geopolitical events please do try to look at from the prism of: What's in it for India instead of an internationalist war cry against the US, the type for which gurus like Chomsky are so famous for.

It will take a bit of practice but I suggest you give it a try.
Thanks Amit.

In fact realpolitik is an achilles heel of the Indian chatterati.

The best example for us to learn lessons would be China-US relations themselves. But I don't foresee that happening in the near future at least.

China and US, which have had an exchequered relationship, have fought wars etc. and yet in 1971 Nixon travelled to Beijing and China US relations blossomed. Both nations played games with each other, and when it suited them they also cooperated with each other - one example would be against the erstwhile USSR, particularly after the Chinese fell out with them post 1961/ 62 or so. They are both confident nations that protect their national interests and do not seem to let ideologies hold them back for too long. Chinese example of Deng talking of the colour of cats etc. is a prime example, so also their record of supporting the so called "rogue nations" for their own purposes. The Americans have also been past masters of the forked tongue. Both nations have their interests as primary aims and have used various means across the spectrum from so called human rights to hard nosed geo-politics to ensure that their interests are primary.

As for India, we still do not have the confidence to develop smart relations with the US to ensure that our interests are protected. Compare this with what China did with US in 1971, just about 18 odd years afters fighting a war in the Korean peninsula. In India we either have people falling over each other getting emotional about Americans, or baying for American blood and telling us about perfidious Americans - both extremes tend to cloud judgement. We still do not have the confidence to believe that we can actually protect out interests against Americans - this when even in our darkest hours, post 1962, we did not give into the American-British pressure on us to resolve Kashmir to Pakistan's satisfaction. Swaran Singh kept playing with Bhutto and we did not yield to the pressure. Even the PL480 food grants did not get us to give up on Kashmir. Yet, I keep on reading articles, stories, entreaties, protests on the roads, based on on ideological considerations about how we need to stay away from Americans, in 2010, when we are a far far more stronger nation and therefore should have the strength and fortitude to play the smart game necessary to protect the core interests and yet collaborate with Americans and the Chinese to ensure long term goals of economic and political security of the nation.

Similarly we have this thing about Chinese - instead of having cool headed reactions, quite a few of us tend to paint them as super humans vis-a-vis Indians! This when, just 5 odd years after the 1962 war, we made them pay a heavy price in Nathu La and later in 1987 in the Somdorung Chu valley, when they learned a few more lessons.

Nuclear weapons is just one example of how we lost the battle because we let our ideologies and fascinations with the esoteric stuff, cloud our judgement. In 50s and 60s, inspite of having the foresight and judgement to keep the nuclear programme alive, we did not weaponise it in time and kept on trying to play the larger game of ensuring "peace" in the world. The result, rest of the powers, went Nuclear and created the NPT etc, kept us out, and we became the outliers! And the amazing part of the bloody stupidity was that the rest of the world kept on using our own arguments about peace and nuclear disarmament to ensure that we did not weaponise. It took bloody more than 40 years for us to get back on the Nuclear high table and that too after such protracted negotiations that we had to surely compromise on some aspects. Something that we needn't have done at all if we had had the foresight to see through the real world.

Surely we can learn from the Chinese, on how they played the game, even when they were so weak relative to the US!

Best regards.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Philip »

Guys,Wikileaks-diplo. cables has exposed the US's deceit and duplicity if need was there to doubt it! The Independent UK has described it as "Deceit,plots,insults;America laid bare".If one goes through the secret cables,one finds the true thoughts of the US with regard to other nations.It also reveals the attitude of some of its closest allies,like the Saudis,who want the US to bomb Iran! One can imagine the consequecnes of that adventurist policy.There is much in the NoKo-SoKo spat that is yet to be revealed.As I said earlier,we are seeing only the tip of the iceberg.What bears out my own views posted,is that of the former US ambassador to SoKo on the BBC,who said that the US's policy of sanctions aaginst the NoKo regime has failed and that it should engage with the NoKo regime.This is what the US has consistently refused to do both with NoKo and Iran,therefore such crises are bound to erupt,which take us to the brink of all out war.

Here is a gripping scenario of how a war between the two Koreas could become the first "nuclear war".

Countdown to Oblivion: North Korea artillery strike - the Start of the First Nuclear War?
By Tom Cain
27th November 2010

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/artic ... z16eMqhgRP

Xcpts:
Top thriller writer Tom Cain imagines what would happen if the North and South Korea stand-off detonated the world's First Nuclear War in this fictional account.
At the time, people called it the Third World War. Now though, we refer to the ­terrible events of late 2010 in a different way. We call this the First Nuclear War.

It began on November 23, 2010, when North Korean artillery bombarded the small island of Yeonpyeong, which lies in the Yellow Sea, just south of the maritime border between the two Koreas.

More than 60 properties were set ablaze and four people were killed. South Korea’s staunch ally President Barack Obama immediately ­dispatched an aircraft carrier to take part in ­exercises with the South Korean Navy in the Yellow Sea........

If the North Koreans could cross the border and get to Seoul quickly enough, they could strike a blow from which the South would never recover.

For decades they had been planning just such a strike. On the North Korean side of the DMZ, gigantic underground caverns had been dug in which whole armies could ­assemble undetected. Four times they had tried to tunnel under the DMZ, attempting to get their forces in behind enemy lines. Each time they had been detected.

But no one detected tunnels five and six. Each had been dug more than 500ft down and was big enough to allow a 3,000-man division to pass through in an hour. At midnight on Wednesday, December 1, 2010, the first North Korean Special Forces went into the tunnels. At 3am they struck.

A thunderous barrage of heavy artillery tore into the American and South Korean defensive positions across the DMZ.

A dozen of the projectiles used were atomic shells, miniature atom-bombs with an explosive power equivalent to 400 tons of TNT, enough to ­devastate even the most hardened enemy bunker.

As the forces along the South Korean side of the DMZ struggled to recover from this hammer-blow, they were hit from the rear by what seemed like a never-ending surge of highly-trained, ruthless and utterly merciless North Korean troops.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/artic ... z16ePsxoCK
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Singha »

Noko can no doubt inflict some heavy punishment in initial artillery and SF/suicide raids. but I do believe the Soko army and marines are well trained and motivated enough to hold the Seoul perimeter. the Noko AF will not be able to do anything much, Soko has a good af, adequate atleast to make sure the Noko AF is not a player.

on their own, the Soko perhaps does not have the resources and manpower to take the battle into Pyongyang but they should be able to inflict massive casualties and roll the show back to the DMZ.

question is - will the US enter the war and if so how -
- the USAF/USN could bombard heavily the Noko infra, HQs and supply chain (which will be above ground) ..fleets of bombers could fly from Guam/Japan and fightres from southern part of Soko.
- MEUs + ROK Marines could land on Noko shore and drive to Pyongyang for regime change - this is not a instant maggi mix - it probably needs 3-4 months of emergency mode work to get the required forces and logistics on station in the area like japan, guam, singapore, thailand etc. a massive logistical tail to support marine armour divs from the sea and a couple of US army armour divs driving across the DMZ will need to be built up and Soko logistics nodes will be likely damaged already from initial Noko "rain of fire" ops.

I think air support is more likely including attempted decapitation strikes and bribes to top Noko generals to adandon ship and point out where kim jong is hiding.

if it ever becomes a UN mandated war and coalition partners are called for - we should participate enthusiastically - we can contribute squadrons of fighter-bombers, medical troops, ammunition(!), ambhip brigade etc.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

Philip wrote:There is much in the NoKo-SoKo spat that is yet to be revealed.As I said earlier,we are seeing only the tip of the iceberg.
Yet with your astute foresight you know all about them - you had a revelation. Talking about seeing in the dark! :)
What bears out my own views posted,is that of the former US ambassador to SoKo on the BBC,who said that the US's policy of sanctions aaginst the NoKo regime has failed and that it should engage with the NoKo regime.This is what the US has consistently refused to do both with NoKo and Iran,therefore such crises are bound to erupt,which take us to the brink of all out war.
Could you please explain what you mean by "engage"? And please don't spout what the former US amby is supposed to have said. I'd like to hear from you what in your definition would constitute "engagement" and how different is that from what the US has been doing all along, especially after NoKo tested its nuclear maal?
Here is a gripping scenario of how a war between the two Koreas could become the first "nuclear war".
You want to have a one rupee bet with me? There's going to be no war and NoKo and it's master Panda are going to sit out the war games with their tails firmly tucked in between their legs hiding their TFTA mzziles.
Last edited by amit on 29 Nov 2010 12:50, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

Ashutosh Malik wrote:In fact realpolitik is an achilles heel of the Indian chatterati.
Ashutosh,

Nice post. Agree with all you say. The problem with realpolitik is the fact that these chatterati never think it through from a India centric POV. You'd notice that in the reams that Philip has written, he's not even once touched on something that should be the first question that should come to mind.

And that is: What does this mean for India or how does this affect India?

Once you don't look that way its easy to sprout homilies about engagement and how there's a need to talk and how the US of A is devil incarnate and how everyone else is a victim and all such nonsense.

It's easy to forget the first principles of geo-politics and that is there's no permanent friends and no permanent enemies. There's only permanent interests. In order not to forget that you have to look at everything from an Indian POV.

Otherwise you'd get what is the equivalent of academic farting.

:-? :-?
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Fidel Guevara »

amit wrote:
The problem is the Indian chatterati approach the whole issue of geopolitical events with a detached academic point of view, as if they are discussing theory in a class lecture on International Relations. Your comparison with US action against Iran and NoKo is a classic example of this.

I know you have a strong dislike for the US, I have no problems with that and more power to you. But when analyzing geopolitical events please do try to look at from the prism of: What's in it for India instead of an internationalist war cry against the US, the type for which gurus like Chomsky are so famous for.
Actually it is not just Indian chatterati as you called it, who does this. Every European country (and Canada too) has this vocal "liberal" class which loves America-bashing, while taking for granted that the US is sending their forces to all the corners of the world to hunt the bad guys. These people are secretly scared that terrorists may bomb their trains and buildings, but would vote against sending any of their own troops to fight in Afghanistan.

These people cry for the "poor children of Iraq, Afghanistan", but don't care two hoots about the "poor children of North Korea or Darfur" - no US involvement in the latter case, and it's not cool to bash the local leadership...after all, it may sound like racism if they do that!

Not wanting to blow a trumpet for the Khans, but how would the world look if NoKo or Sudan or Pakistan had a US$600 billion annual defence budget? Or Russia, China?
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Fidel Guevara »

Singha wrote: if it ever becomes a UN mandated war and coalition partners are called for - we should participate enthusiastically - we can contribute squadrons of fighter-bombers, medical troops, ammunition(!), ambhip brigade etc.
This would be an excellent opportunity to prove Indian Army's cold weather and mountain warfare capabilities, as well as the Navy/Air Force ability to manage a major supply chain across a long distance. Also very useful in battle-testing our new weapon systems.

And if China enters the war, a chance to avenge 1962.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

As usual Philip showed remarkable prescience by bringing Iran into the discussion on NoKo's brutal firing on civilian targets in SoKo. Much ahead of the curve than the rest mango Abduls on BRF, please take a bow.

The reason I say this is because of this report
The documents include U.S. intelligence findings such as a conclusion that Iran obtained 19 advanced missiles from North Korea. The missiles potentially give the Islamic nation the capability of attacking Moscow and cities in Western Europe, according to embassy cables posted by WikiLeaks and provided to the New York Times in advance.
Needless to say that missiles which can reach Moscow from Iran can also reach Mumbai and much of the Western parts of India.

So we now have two fundamentalist Islamic nations with missiles supplied by NoKo which can target India and potentially kill millions.

But of course that's a minor issue. We should all protest against the US tendency to bully poor, improvised turd world countries, especially those like NoKo which have such a nice little enterprise going whereby they keep most of their population half starved and much of them in concentration camps. Why can't the world's biggest hegemon leave the poor Dear Leader and his family alone to do their own thing, of course under the watchful eye of big brother the Panda?

We should also protest vigorously against any attempt to deny Iran the fundamental right to build nuclear weapons, even though they are using technology supplied by Panda via Pakistan.

May be we need to ask Suzzane Arundhati Roy to write a scathing piece on both issues. We can then wah, wah on this thread. :rotfl: :rotfl:
Last edited by amit on 30 Nov 2010 06:56, edited 1 time in total.
amit
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by amit »

Fidel Guevara wrote:Actually it is not just Indian chatterati as you called it, who does this. Every European country (and Canada too) has this vocal "liberal" class which loves America-bashing, while taking for granted that the US is sending their forces to all the corners of the world to hunt the bad guys. These people are secretly scared that terrorists may bomb their trains and buildings, but would vote against sending any of their own troops to fight in Afghanistan.

These people cry for the "poor children of Iraq, Afghanistan", but don't care two hoots about the "poor children of North Korea or Darfur" - no US involvement in the latter case, and it's not cool to bash the local leadership...after all, it may sound like racism if they do that!

Not wanting to blow a trumpet for the Khans, but how would the world look if NoKo or Sudan or Pakistan had a US$600 billion annual defence budget? Or Russia, China?
Fidel,
Spot on. This just goes to show how the chatterati shamelessly ape the Goras in the fond hope of being accepted by them.

And, even though OT here, this is not limited to geopolitical events like this one. Even during the CWG in Delhi I think we had the most comprehensive collection of links to muck raking and racist reporting by the Gora press in the thread dedicated to CWG. The folks who did a yeoman's service by trolling the Net to get these articles and posting them fell totally silent when the CWG, at the end of the day was successfully held, and more importantly when Indian sportspersons put in a stellar performance to make every Indian proud.
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Post by Ashutosh Malik »

Philip wrote:Guys,Wikileaks-diplo. cables has exposed the US's deceit and duplicity if need was there to doubt it! The ............... of all out war.

Here is a gripping scenario of how a war between the two Koreas could become the first "nuclear war".

Countdown to Oblivion: North Korea artillery strike - the Start of the First Nuclear War?
................
[/quote]

So this Tom chap has now told us how the first nuclear war will take place! Maybe he should write a novel that will help him earn a few pounds given that West versus USSR scenarios are all gone now.

This seems akin to how in the context of India and Pakistan we always hear some joker or other saying that this is the world's most dangerous border, blah blah blah! And how Indians and Pakistanis are kids who will fight a nuclear war at the drop of the hat, and then some similar idiot in Indian English press will write in one of the English newspapers as to how dangerous the situation is and therefore we should do nothing! Ha ha ha!

As for the diplomatic cables being leaked - so what is the big deal! I am pretty sure ours will sound exactly like those of the Americans. I would imagine diplomats of each country do exactly this and everybody understands the reality of what happens and how the business is conducted and how things are not exactly what they seem on the surface. As Mr. Ravi Rikhye writes in ORBAT.COM today, the leaks are a big yawn.

Best regards.
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