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PostPosted: 01 Nov 2011 21:34 
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Austin wrote:
rajanb wrote:
One Question I have.

Is the IL 746 same as the IL-76MD-90?

Thanks in advance.


IL-476 is a marketing name by UAC , for other wise what is referred to as "Deeply Modernised Il-76MD90A"


Thanks Austin


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PostPosted: 01 Nov 2011 21:39 
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Surya wrote:


Quote:
Hangar queen implies it spends most of the time in the hangar - the M2K just needed a clean environment for certain maintenance. Maint over (and turnarounds are faster than Migs) - it was available.



Surya. No way. Hangar Queen meant that the M2K, as you have said, needed a clean environment. Not that it spent more time in the hangar! And I did feel that there was envy that the MiG pilots tried to hide. :D


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PostPosted: 01 Nov 2011 21:41 
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Philip wrote:
However,the situ has now changed with the IL-476s being now all built in Russia and substantial orders for the same by the RuAF.



Philip. Please let us work on hard facts.
How many IL 476 have been built till date ?
How many IL 476 can be built by Russia annually ?
How many IL 476 are in service in Russia ?
How many IL 476 have been ordered by Russia ? What is the delivery schedule ?
Which other AF has ordered IL 476 ?
Which other AF already uses IL 476 ?

IL 476 is considered as a "almost totally different" aircraft. Would it not require several hundred / thousand hours of testing before any certification ?

I am sure IAF must have considered the above issues, and many more, before opting for C 17.

I would not be surprised that IAF replaces IL 76 with IL 476 sometime in 2020s. It would be great, if IL 476 flies by that time

K


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PostPosted: 01 Nov 2011 21:48 
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@kersiD

We have. (Dusts off the Vampire abandoned in a field outside Hakimpet AFB) 8)


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PostPosted: 01 Nov 2011 23:06 
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Surya wrote:
Quote:
3) The bigger point is that Mirage 2000 needed (I dont know how it is right now) more care in 90s because of its delicate electronics and what not compared to Mig 29 which was far more robust.


Sigh come onafter years on BRF and this BS??
!


It helps that I have been on bases before and after BRF, perhaps?

As you know, I am one of the posters who rarely speaks of chaiwalla sources, that is because I normally don't talk about over beer conversations with them which are under 15 years old (the conversations that is)
:P

rajanb wrote:
Surya. No way. Hangar Queen meant that the M2K, as you have said, needed a clean environment. Not that it spent more time in the hangar! And I did feel that there was envy that the MiG pilots tried to hide. :D


Which is what I said as well. Thanks rajanb, it feels good to be backed up, frankly, though I know its not done as a favor to me or anything, but thanks anyway.


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PostPosted: 01 Nov 2011 23:15 
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Kersi D wrote:
Philip wrote:
However,the situ has now changed with the IL-476s being now all built in Russia and substantial orders for the same by the RuAF.



Philip. Please let us work on hard facts.
How many IL 476 have been built till date ?
How many IL 476 can be built by Russia annually ?
How many IL 476 are in service in Russia ?
How many IL 476 have been ordered by Russia ? What is the delivery schedule ?
Which other AF has ordered IL 476 ?
Which other AF already uses IL 476 ?

IL 476 is considered as a "almost totally different" aircraft. Would it not require several hundred / thousand hours of testing before any certification ?

I am sure IAF must have considered the above issues, and many more, before opting for C 17.

I would not be surprised that IAF replaces IL 76 with IL 476 sometime in 2020s. It would be great, if IL 476 flies by that time

K


The IL-476 is not a new aircraft that requires extensive test and certification (B-777 for example). It's like when Boeing modified the original Boeing 737-100 into the stretched -200, then the -300 (improved wing, futher stretched, new generation engine, EFIS but electro-mechanical engine instruments, then into the -400 (further stretched full glass cockpit with ECAM), then the -500 which was a -400 with a -200 length fuselage. Then came the -600, -700 etc which had a new wing. There is very little in common between a Boeing 737-100 and a Boeing 737-900 but Boeing by upgrading little by little was able to keep the original name and and certification process and use just supplemental type certificates to certify what had been modified from the previous model for a quick certification process.

The IL-476 will be a modified IL-76-MD-90. So most of the aircraft is already certified. They will just need to test and certify whatever is new and different, like the center section, the wing box and the wing, as I've already posted. From what I can tell from the pictures of the IL-476 prototypes, it is NOT a stretched version like the IL-76MF. Maybe they will offer both short and long versions in the future I have no idea. The engine pylon shape also indicates that PS-90-76s engines will be mounted on it. Rumors are it will have an EFIS cockpit. It seems that the Maximum Take-off Weight will be 210 tonnes with a 60 tonne payload.
If this aircraft enters production, all parts and systems will be available from suppliers and probably old aircraft will be able to benefit from newly designed and certified improvements.

In 5 to 10 years, the IAF will likely be facing a closed C-17 production line (with whatever number of C-17s it will have purchased between now and then), and a new IL-76 production line. The choices and decisions will be taken then according to the situation that will exist then, according to the needs the IAF will have then, and according to the political situation that will exist then.

As far as the sustainment contract that the IAF was wanting to sign for new suppliers for its IL-76, the contract will NOT include nine upgraded IL-76s which will be upgraded in Russian. Why ?


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 00:40 
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Gilles wrote:
If this aircraft enters production, all parts and systems will be available from suppliers


Will they? You just got through explaining how there are plenty of parts available for legacy Il-76s, yet somehow Russia is withholding them from India.

Gilles wrote:
In 5 to 10 years, the IAF will likely be facing a closed C-17 production line . . . and a new IL-76 production line.


Two big assumptions I wouldn't bank on ;)

Gilles wrote:
The choices and decisions will be taken then according to the situation that will exist then, according to the needs the IAF will have then, and according to the political situation that will exist then.


The situation will be that 20 C-17s takes care of the IAF's heavy lift for the foreseeable future and the MRTA (plus a handful of C-130Js) will take care of the rest


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 01:10 
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Sanku and Rajanb

So by the normal known definition of hangar queen - the M2K is not a hangar queen. If you heard it from someone then they got the meaning wrong.


Thats my point.

If anything it was the migs which were for some time hangar queens because of the lack of parts after SU collapsed - which of course is no fault of the aircraft.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 01:14 
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Surya wrote:
Sanku and Rajanb

So by the normal known definition of hangar queen - the M2K is not a hangar queen. If you heard it from someone then they got the meaning wrong.


Well hangar queen is not really a dictionary term, people use it in various ways, often to mean high maintenance. That's more often the colloquial usage in IAF based on my experience.

Quote:
Thats my point.


Fair enough, we have an agreement.

Quote:
If anything it was the migs which were hangar queens because of the lack of parts after SU collapsed


The serviceability rate NEVER dropped below 70% in worst of the times. It was tough but IAF made sure it had 70% uptime. Now its much better.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 01:44 
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GeorgeWelch wrote:
Will they? You just got through explaining how there are plenty of parts available for legacy Il-76s, yet somehow Russia is withholding them from India..


We covered this subject already. I just hate it when you feign amnesia. A little honesty wouldn't hurt in your posts you know? Or is there too much money at stake for you to risk honesty ?

When people were claiming here to have a picture of a T-90 inside an IL-76, I was the one who revealed the aircraft to be an AN-22. When I was wrong about the Arjun weight, I admitted it. When I assumed the IAF IL-76s flew 1000 hours a year, and you said they did not, I researched it and not only did I correct myself, but I posted my source. I am honest, up front and straight. I am sometimes wrong and sometimes make mistakes but am here to to learn as much as to share my experience and knowledge. You, on the other hand, often act like a weasel on this board. You even let people believe you are right when you are wrong, like this claim you made not too long ago about C-17s air-dropping bulldozers from the ramp, in Afghanistan, having the bulldozer bulldoze an un-improved runway and have the C-17s land on that runway. Such a thing never happened and you know it, you never provided proof, or references, but some people read your claim here and take it as the Gospel without further research. And that seems to suit your purposes very well.

Back to the subject:

According to Russian law, all exported Russian military hardware needs to be sold through state owned Rosoboronexport (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosoboronexport) So when the IAF needs Russian parts or support for its IL-76s, it has to go through that company. However, a commercial IL-76 operator that needs parts for its IL-76, does not and can deal directly with Russian parts suppliers.

So if the IAF has trouble getting parts for its IL-76s but airlines, even foreign ones, do not, the problem is certainly not a problem of parts supply but a problem between Rosoboronexport and the Indian Government. It could be a conflict between the Indian Government and Rosoboronexport over a sub deal or other....

I suspect that many foreign governments and Air Forces that operated IL-76s, also had government owned "civilian" companies that operated the same aircraft to by-pass having to deal with Rosoboronexport. Since 2005, all press accounts about the Jordandian IL-76MF order talked about a Jordanian Air Force order, and lo and behold, when they aircraft were finally delivered this year, they were painted in the colors of Jordan International Air Cargo. There may be another reason for this, for it is much simpler to get overflight permits for civilian cargo aircraft than for military ones. The down side is that civilian aircraft need to comply with civilian regulations such as noise while military aircraft do not (like noise regulations etc)

So India is attempting to sign a contract with a third party so service its IL-76s. This of course cannot be with any Russian company for Russian law forbids it. But it could be with Ukrainian company, or even an Indian one, as long as that company is directly supported by Ilyushin.

Now this article http://www.defencenow.com/news/206/iaf-ignores-russia-floats-global-tender-for-maintenance-of-ilyushin-aircraft.html states

Quote:
Apparently, the nine IAF Ilyushins which will be undergoing overhaul and total life extension at the time the contract is expected to be awarded will not be included.


(Its not clear if the 6 IL-78MKI and the 3 A-50s are included in this or not)

Now why would the IAF need to sign a contract with a non Russian company to maintain just 8 of its 17 IL-76 and not the other 9 ? Are they perhaps satisfied that these 9 will be adequately covered under some other RUSSIAN contract ? Or maybe there are parts available for those 9, but not for the 8 to be covered under a new contract ?

Explain this to us, please Mr GeorgeWelch. In a straight manner. Not like a politician deflecting an embarrassing question on the floor of Parliament.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 03:42 
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Gilles wrote:
We covered this subject already. I just hate it when you feign amnesia.


I'm not feigning amnesia, I don't recall you ever addressing this point before. Of course you've posted a lot, perhaps I've missed it. Perhaps a link back your original post on this would be helpful?

Gilles wrote:
A little honesty wouldn't hurt in your posts you know? Or is there too much money at stake for you to risk honesty ?


From the person who went on an on about how Australia HAD to build special dirt runways for the C-17 because none accomodated it (A gross and blatant mischaracterization of what happened there), the person who claimed that the C-17s wouldn't have been able to use Camp Rhino if it rained (false), and the person who CONTINUALLY confuses "hasn't yet" with "can't" ("The C-17 can't land at Alert" oops "The C-17 can't land at Alert with a useful load" oops).

I really don't think you want to get into a historical comparison.

Gilles wrote:
So India is attempting to sign a contract with a third party so service its IL-76s. This of course cannot be with any Russian company for Russian law forbids it. But it could be with Ukrainian company, or even an Indian one, as long as that company is directly supported by Ilyushin.


So your theory is that once India gets this deal worked out, it will be all smooth sailing? You have a tremendous amount of faith. So far as I know, nothing has been signed with anybody and it would be interesting to see what if any retaliatory steps Russia takes if such a contract was signed. Too many unknowns yet.

The point that does remain is that Russia (Rosoboronexport) is an extreme pain to deal with. Why? Why does Russia make it so hard to keep the spares flowing? Any explanation you can come up with looks bad.

Gilles wrote:
Now why would the IAF need to sign a contract with a non Russian company to maintain just 8 of its 17 IL-76 and not the other 9 ? Are they perhaps satisfied that these 9 will be adequately covered under some other RUSSIAN contract ? Or maybe there are parts available for those 9, but not for the 8 to be covered under a new contract ?

Explain this to us, please Mr GeorgeWelch. In a straight manner. Not like a politician deflecting an embarrassing question on the floor of Parliament.


Perhaps the upgrade contract forbids them from sourcing spares outside of Russia

But I have no idea, you'll have to ask the IAF.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 04:23 
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Sanku wrote:
He talks of TWO independent strategies, quite clearly!! :lol:
Strat 1 -- Upg Ils
Strat 2 -- buy new (in this case unfortunately IAF)

It takes substantial powers of superior comprehension two make it a either/or case.


Umm nobody is making it an either / or case saar :) but clearly one of the strategies of the IAF is to buy C-17s as the ILs are approaching end of service life. So your assertion that C-17s are NOT replacing IL-76s is clearly incorrect. Nor does it mean that IL-76 are bad aircrafts because the CAS has clearly mentioned that they have served us well.

See - over reliance on 'shruti' makes it difficult to parse direct quotes :)


Last edited by arnab on 02 Nov 2011 07:01, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 04:30 
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Sanku wrote:
The serviceability rate NEVER dropped below 70% in worst of the times. It was tough but IAF made sure it had 70% uptime. Now its much better.


Instead of spending all your time on the forum, it would be nice if you actually read some of the articles put up on the BR site once in a while :)

This is from the BRM
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/I ... hatto.html

Quote:
The Indian Air Force: Flying into the 21st Century

R.CHATTOPADHYAY



Quote:
Major problems with the availability of spares and support from the ex-USSR affected operations severely during the period 1991-1994. Peacetime daily serviceability rates declined from an average 70-72% in the preceding decade to as low as 60% for some types. The MiG-29 and An-32 fleets were particularly hard hit. In case of the former, serviceability had declined to as low as 55%.


Mig 29s were unable to get in the air half the time - stayed in the hangar - a hangar queen :)


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 07:37 
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^^^"Mig 29s were unable to get in the air half the time - stayed in the hangar - a hangar queen"

Yeah but we showed them Yankees right? Next up TU-22M3s that can grace hangars but they are cheap and robust (vacuum tubes) . :).

Some on BRF seem to be positively annoyed that the C-17s will arrive on or before time and actually do the things required of them by the IAF.

This Il-76/476 thing reminds me of the Iranians we used to meet in LA during the 1980s who would put on their Mercedes (in gold paint) on the trunk lid 1000S or 1000SL :)

The auto industry used to have a term "Badge Engineering"


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 07:37 
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Here we go again!

GeorgeWelch wrote:
I'm not feigning amnesia, I don't recall you ever addressing this point before. Of course you've posted a lot, perhaps I've missed it. Perhaps a link back your original post on this would be helpful?


Page 7, Posted: 06 Apr 2011 20:01

GeorgeWelch wrote:
From the person who went on an on about how Australia HAD to build special dirt runways for the C-17 because none accomodated it (A gross and blatant mischaracterization of what happened there), the person who claimed that the C-17s wouldn't have been able to use Camp Rhino if it rained (false), and the person who CONTINUALLY confuses "hasn't yet" with "can't" ("The C-17 can't land at Alert" oops "The C-17 can't land at Alert with a useful load" oops).

I really don't think you want to get into a historical comparison.


1) About the Australians. They have HUNDREDS of unpaved runways in Australia. Why didn't they simply use a few of those to try out their new C-17 instead of building a "C-17 capable unpaved runway" ?

https://jrac.erdc.usace.army.mil/documents/tripreport.pdf

Quote:
The goal of the 2007 JRAC demonstration will be to upgrade an existing airfield to C-17
capable, including adding ramp space and increasing
These people visited a bunch of unpaved airfields in Australia and detailed what would be necessary to UPGRADE these landing fields to make them "C-17 capable". And it was not always a problem of length.

Why did they just not go and land somewhere ? A wild guess, anyone ?

The only other unsurfaced runway where the Australians landed their C-17s was in Afghanistan, at another airfield specially upgraded to C-17 standard.

2) Camp Rhino. I did not claim the C-17 couldn't not land there if it rained. Major Erik W. Hansen, a USAF pilot wrote that, in a published document that I referenced and quoted, and I will do it again here:

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ada430864.pdf&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

Quote:
Given current procedures, a 4,100 foot runway would only be of use during dry runway conditions since planned stopping distance increases greatly under wet conditions when using an RCR of 4 as discussed previously


Quote:
This wake-up call should have alerted interested parties that the C-17 semiprepared runway capability may not be as robust as was previously believed. Operations at Rhino LZ, although very successful, shed more light on limitations of the C-17’s semiprepared runway capabilities. This is not to say that the C-17 is not semi-prepared runway capable, but it is to say that this capability is not as routine as many interested parties would think


Quote:
The TOLD issues carry serious safety implications if not adequately refined since
errors could potentially result in an aircraft mishap. Rhino LZ had almost 7,000 feet of
runway and therefore more than adequate runway for takeoffs and landings especially
since conditions remained dry throughout Rhino LZ operations


Quote:
Given current procedures, a 4,100 foot runway would only be of use during dry runway conditions since planned stopping distance increases greatly under wet conditions when using an RCR of 4 as discussed previously. The Engineering Technical Letter, which provides guidance to civil engineers indicates that C-17s require a 7,000 foot runway during wet runway operations


3) Alert.
Alert has a 5500 gravel runway, more than enough for a C-17. I was making fun of the Canadian Air Force, who, several years after buying the C-17 (and claiming in Parliament they needed it among other things for supplying Alert), had never landed there in a C-17. They finally went there in 2010, 3 years after the induction, but with only limited 45 tonne payload, and only after having sent a team to inspect the soil strength and test the runway braking coefficient. This is despite the fact that the Military had previously been chartering civilian B-737-200 to fly into the same runway they would not fly into with their "STOL" and unpaved capable C-17.

Here is a picture of a First Air B737-200 on the ground in Alert.

http://www.tripadvisor.fr/LocationPhotos-g670329-w3-Alert_Nunavut.html#23005575

Now they even fly CP-140 Auroras (Canadian P-3 Maritime Patrol Aircraft)

Gilles wrote:
So India is attempting to sign a contract with a third party so service its IL-76s. This of course cannot be with any Russian company for Russian law forbids it. But it could be with Ukrainian company, or even an Indian one, as long as that company is directly supported by Ilyushin.


GeorgeWelch wrote:
So your theory is that once India gets this deal worked out, it will be all smooth sailing? You have a tremendous amount of faith. So far as I know, nothing has been signed with anybody and it would be interesting to see what if any retaliatory steps Russia takes if such a contract was signed. Too many unknowns yet.

The point that does remain is that Russia (Rosoboronexport) is an extreme pain to deal with. Why? Why does Russia make it so hard to keep the spares flowing? Any explanation you can come up with looks bad.


I don't claim any such thing. What I claim is that civilian airlines have no trouble maintaining their IL-76s. They find parts, servicing etc. Why does the IAF have trouble getting parts ? If that at all true. Why do they only want to find a new contract for those aircraft that have not been upgraded ? It seems that they have resolved the problem for those aircraft that are to be upgraded ? Right ?


Last edited by Gilles on 02 Nov 2011 19:17, edited 3 times in total.

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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 09:52 
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Does anyone have any figures on cost per hour of operating the C-17 versus the Il-76? The difference in payload capacity needs to be taken into account here.

I get the impression that the last 20 years have seen a marked improvement in fuel efficiency, aircraft reliability and pilot workload. I am not sure if all these are either upgradeable on the Il-76 or on par among Russian and US aircraft.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 10:12 
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Gilles wrote:
I don't claim any such thing. What I claim is that civilian airlines have no trouble maintaining their IL-76s. They find parts, servicing etc. Why does the IAF have trouble getting parts ?


Off my head if i remember well the problem as i was told by Prasun Sengupta is not about trouble in getting spares from Russia but about the Indian subsidary ( a JV between India-Russia ) not able to forecast and procure spares months in advance in able to stock it ,so every time IAF needs spares it forwards its request to this subsidary and then they place order and it takes months to get spares, if its not done in advance or stocked adequately it leads to lack of spares being available affecting fleet reliability. The problem is more Indian specific and more like IAF specific , there are different agency that procures spares for Navy and IA and the spares issue with these sister service is not problematic..


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 10:22 
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Ok this is what Prasun wrote on his blog regarding spares issue with IAF and why not the IN faces the same problem ( i am aware PSG is a no no at BRF but its worth looking at it since the spare problem is quite serious and no one yet knows why it is so )

link

Quote:
Indian media outlets have reported about the so-called poor Russian product support (alleging that this is due to unilateral price hikes, or this is Russia seen to be blackmailing or punishing India for not being lucrative procurement contracts for new-build weaponry), the reality is that the Nasik-based joint India-Russia venture called Indo Russian Aviation Ltd (IRAL), which was set up in the early 1990s by HAL, Rosoboronexport State Corp and RAC-MiG to pre-stockpile and supply the IAF with rotables and consumables for all types of Russia-origin aircraft, screwed up big time by not doing what it has been mandated to do, which in turn led to the IAF issuing a raft of global RFPs earlier this year asking for the supply of such items. It is no use blaming Russian original equipment manufacturers (OEM) simply because such OEMs are only dependent on their regional distributors (like IRAL) for receiving indents 12 months in advance for the quantum of spares required or the type of periodic MRO cycle to be implemented each year. This is how the global product-support supply-chain functions, and Russia is no exception. One can blame the OEM for not setting up regional distribution centres, but one cannot blame the OEM if a MoD-mandated, financed and controlled distributor screws up by failing to adhere to prescribed business practices.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 10:50 
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^^ Prasun is a clown. A K Antony raised the matter with the Russians who were in furious agreement with him and were involved at the 'highest levels' to work out a solution.

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/unc ... 68351.html

Quote:
Antony drew the attention of the Russian side to the vexing issue of delayed export clearances for vital repair equipment for already contracted weapons systems. This has been affecting supplies of defence equipment and spares,” Indian defence ministry spokesperson Sitanshu Kar, who is part of Antony’s delegation, said about the meeting.

“The Russian side assured the Indian side that the matter was receiving attention at highest levels in the Russian government and efforts would made to institutionalise measures to avoid such delays in future,” he added.

India has in the recent months issued hundreds of tenders for spares for Soviet-era military equipment including fighter jets such as MiG-21, MiG-23 and MiG-27, apart from radars and missiles, all worth millions of US dollars.


Note: delayed export clearences from Russia. WTF does it have to do with when the indents were raised by MoD?


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 10:51 
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shiv wrote:
Does anyone have any figures on cost per hour of operating the C-17 versus the Il-76? The difference in payload capacity needs to be taken into account here.


Gilles had posted the figures before, a civilian Il 76 figures vs mil C 17, while that might be a little off, it already showed that operating Il 76s was much cheaper.

I am sure he will repost it, but I thought I will get in a post anyway.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 10:57 
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arnab wrote:
Sanku wrote:
He talks of TWO independent strategies, quite clearly!! :lol:
Strat 1 -- Upg Ils
Strat 2 -- buy new (in this case unfortunately IAF)

It takes substantial powers of superior comprehension two make it a either/or case.


Umm nobody is making it an either / or case saar :) but clearly one of the strategies of the IAF is to buy C-17s as the ILs are approaching end of service life. So your assertion that C-17s are NOT replacing IL-76s is clearly incorrect.


Okay let me try and say this once more, and slowly, the service of life of Il 76 + midlife upgrade means that Ils will be around for AT LEAST 15 years more.

Now if in your vocabulary, "Is being replaced" refers to a process refers to a event that will "potentially happen after 15 years" ???

Jai ho.

Meanwhile I am willing to take a bet that Il 76s will quite certainly be around and will never be replaced by C 17s but some other a/c (may be newer Ils) in 40-50 ton carrying class.

The C 17s will very soon be seen to be white elephants, expensive to operate and maintain, painful to use, with many options that are easier.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 11:05 
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arnab wrote:
Sanku wrote:
The serviceability rate NEVER dropped below 70% in worst of the times. It was tough but IAF made sure it had 70% uptime. Now its much better.


Instead of spending all your time on the forum, it would be nice if you actually read some of the articles put up on the BR site once in a while :)

This is from the BRM
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/I ... hatto.html

Quote:
The Indian Air Force: Flying into the 21st Century

R.CHATTOPADHYAY



Quote:
Major problems with the availability of spares and support from the ex-USSR affected operations severely during the period 1991-1994. Peacetime daily serviceability rates declined from an average 70-72% in the preceding decade to as low as 60% for some types. The MiG-29 and An-32 fleets were particularly hard hit. In case of the former, serviceability had declined to as low as 55%.


Mig 29s were unable to get in the air half the time - stayed in the hangar - a hangar queen :)


Dear Arnab, as far as you are concerned, these both figures are hearsay, since GoI does not release these figures, So R Chattopadhaya who wrote that, and I both are speaking on behalf of your sources.

While you might have the onerous task of choosing which source to believe in (actually in your case I know what you will believe anyway regardless of any facts etc) --

I know what my sources are, and therefore do not need to get into a pissing contest -- the worst uptime was 70%, and its pretty serious, for front line fighters (which they were then) -- so "deal" with it.

Also your own source says

Quote:
severely during the period 1991-1994.


So the fact of Mig 29 uptime was not a issue of the aircraft, or its vendors mal-intent, but the political situation, something which is repeatedly, deliberately and maliciously distorted.

Mig 29s are one of the easiest and most reliable a/cs -- its uptimes are better than all other comparable western types with MUCH less effort.

Mig 29s supply chain issues have since then been solved with HALs and BRDs weighing in heavily with both replacements with locally made/procured items and better political situation in Russia.

OTOH -- the western types continue to be substantially dependent on tender loving care, since that is the design philosphy of the a/c and not a fact of current political situation (of course when they sanction us, these tender a/c just stop working, totally they have uptimes of like 0%)

:lol:


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 11:11 
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Sanku wrote:
Okay let me try and say this once more, and slowly, the service of life of Il 76 + midlife upgrade means that Ils will be around for AT LEAST 15 years more.

Now if in your vocabulary, "Is being replaced" refers to a process refers to a event that will "potentially happen after 15 years" ???

Jai ho.

Meanwhile I am willing to take a bet that Il 76s will quite certainly be around and will never be replaced by C 17s but some other a/c (may be newer Ils) in 40-50 ton carrying class.

The C 17s will very soon be seen to be white elephants, expensive to operate and maintain, painful to use, with many options that are easier.


Replacement is an iterative process. If there is life in the IL air frames flog-them - sure, but as the CAS has said that they are approaching the end of their life cycle. By the time the C-17s start coming the ILs will have another 10 years of life left. That is when the transition will occur with the Transport suadrons learning to operate and train on these air crafts. The C-17s will be the mainstay of our heavy lift capability. That is the replacement that the CAS is mentioning.

We do not know anything at all about whether the IAF is indeed interested in a new improved 'cheap & best' IL76 or other 'numerous' alternatives :). What we do know is that the IAF will probably exercise its options to buy more than 10 C-17s.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 11:17 
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arnab wrote:

Replacement is an iterative process.


:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Yeah, iterative process.

Wake me up when the first Il 76 is retired and your iteration begins.

Till then, try and get used to reality -- and learn the difference between "is being replaced" will "potentially look at replacement in 15 years time"
:lol:

Let me make one more prediction, this quid pro quo approach for acquisition of mil hardware is not sustainable.

Buying overpriced white elephants to make your friends in US happy may be great politics, just like managing the voting in parliament was, but poor operational strategy going forward.

When your choices are dictated by "other things" and you leave it for IAF to "manage a use" post facto -- the cheerful statements from IAF will not last very long -- perhaps not even till next CAG report.
:mrgreen:


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 11:19 
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Sanku wrote:
[
Dear Arnab, as far as you are concerned, these both figures are hearsay, since GoI does not release these figures, So R Chattopadhaya who wrote that, and I both are speaking on behalf of your sources.

While you might have the onerous task of choosing which source to believe in (actually in your case I know what you will believe anyway regardless of any facts etc) --

I know what my sources are, and therefore do not need to get into a pissing contest -- the worst uptime was 70%, and its pretty serious, for front line fighters (which they were then) -- so "deal" with it.

Also your own source says

Quote:
severely during the period 1991-1994.


So the fact of Mig 29 uptime was not a issue of the aircraft, or its vendors mal-intent, but the political situation, something which is repeatedly, deliberately and maliciously distorted.

Mig 29s are one of the easiest and most reliable a/cs -- its uptimes are better than all other comparable western types with MUCH less effort.

Mig 29s supply chain issues have since then been solved with HALs and BRDs weighing in heavily with both replacements with locally made/procured items and better political situation in Russia.

OTOH -- the western types continue to be substantially dependent on tender loving care, since that is the design philosphy of the a/c and not a fact of current political situation (of course when they sanction us, these tender a/c just stop working, totally they have uptimes of like 0%)

:lol:


I'm sure Rupak the author (one of the owners of BR I believe) has greater access and knowledge about IAF and wouldn't need to do subtle downhill skiing from 'servicability never below 72 per cent' to 'servicability of frontline aircraft never below 72 per cent'. But here is the rub sir - sources are only as good as your personal level of knowledge. So just like marching in a convoy to Kheotali will not give you knowledge about yileds in fission / fusion / boosted fission, similarly a visit to an IAF base will not give you any indication about servicability :)


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 11:21 
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Sanku wrote:
Yeah, iterative process.

Wake me up when the first Il 76 is retired and your iteration begins.

Till then, try and get used to reality -- and learn the difference between "is being replaced" will "potentially look at replacement in 15 years time"
:lol:

Let me make one more prediction, this quid pro quo approach for acquisition of mil hardware is not sustainable.

Buying overpriced white elephants to make your friends in US happy may be great politics, just like managing the voting in parliament was, but poor operational strategy going forward.

When your choices are dictated by "other things" and you leave it for IAF to "manage a use" post facto -- the cheerful statements from IAF will not last very long -- perhaps not even till next CAG report.
:mrgreen:


So when do you think IAF should start forward planning in terms of replacing aircrafts that have outlived their useful lives? Or should we do knee jerk buying like T-90s :)


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 11:27 
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arnab wrote:
I'm sure Rupak the author (one of the owners of BR I believe) has greater access and knowledge about IAF and wouldn't need to do subtle downhill skiing from 'servicability never below 72 per cent' to 'servicability of frontline aircraft never below 72 per cent'.


Kindly do not spin, I categorically state that I am aware that the serviceability of Mig 29s never went down below 70%. There are many things that were done which were not "publicly shared"

I will differ with Rupak on this -- period.

There is no "subtle" climbdown or anything, this habit of interesting interpretations of simple sentences must be eschewed, it is becoming a far too common malady in certain quarters.

Quote:
But here is the rub sir - sources are only as good as your personal level of knowledge. So just like marching in a convoy to Kheotali will not give you knowledge about yileds in fission / fusion / boosted fission, similarly a visit to an IAF base will not give you any indication about servicability :)


That statement boss, again only goes to show that you have zero clue on how things are :rotfl: you must understand that others are not like you, and when they go to Khetolai or a airbase, they are not marching about.

Kick off this habit of projecting yourself on others.

In any event your main points are all shown to be wrong, by any which source -- all you have is "interpretation" of English to make X mean Y.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 11:30 
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I think it would be fair to say the days of rough and ready nokia 1100 torch phones are gone. the new smartphone demands good handling , lots of power and upgrades but in return gives quantum leaps in what you can do.

any new kit is intensive in electronics and software and needs TLC. this would go for the new kit like Irbis or Mig29K as well....Rus itself will change their philosophy now that they have to live with few 100 airframes not the tens of 1000s of 'disposable' kit their factories churned out in cold war. stuff has got to last and be upgradeable.

some would say the days of 'real men' flying fighters and 1-vs-1 'come on lets dance' machogiri are gone. you could do that but a small, cowardly yindu flying at mach1.6 @ 70000ft stealth airframe could unleash a mach6 dart aam and knock you down with no warning.


Mig29 cockpit http://www.richard-seaman.com/Aircraft/ ... ockpit.jpg
Rafale cockpit http://www.airforce-technology.com/proj ... fale_7.jpg


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 11:39 
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Sanku wrote:
Kindly do not spin, I categorically state that I am aware that the serviceability of Mig 29s never went down below 70%. There are many things that were done which were not "publicly shared"



Why saar? do share (with a source please, these word of mouth whisperings as a cover up for lack of data is plainly boring. This must be the new age BRF - earlier, words had to be backed by source) - it was 20 years ago - were they hanging the mig-29s from an IL-76 and flying about with the pilot making vroom vroom noise with his mouth? :)


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 12:08 
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arnab wrote:
So when do you think IAF should start forward planning in terms of replacing aircrafts that have outlived their useful lives? Or should we do knee jerk buying like T-90s :)


Actually IAF had started the process before the IUCNA was signed by talking about how they would do go the whole 9 yards, RFI, RFP test negotiations etc.

Suddenly the entire process was scrapped and a knee jerk purchase of C 17s was made.

For T 90s we know what the reason which made the knee jerk (Pakistan's acquisition of T 80 and Kargil) -- in this case there is no fig leaf even to explain what caused the knee to jerk was.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 12:09 
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arnab wrote:
Sanku wrote:
Kindly do not spin, I categorically state that I am aware that the serviceability of Mig 29s never went down below 70%. There are many things that were done which were not "publicly shared"



Why saar? do share (with a source please, these word of mouth whisperings as a cover up for lack of data is plainly boring. This must be the new age BRF - earlier, words had to be backed by source) - it was 20 years ago - were they hanging the mig-29s from an IL-76 and flying about with the pilot making vroom vroom noise with his mouth? :)


:lol: You need to grow up child.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 12:14 
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Singha wrote:
I think it would be fair to say the days of rough and ready nokia 1100 torch phones are gone. the new smartphone demands good handling , lots of power and upgrades but in return gives quantum leaps in what you can do.

some would say the days of 'real men' flying fighters and 1-vs-1 'come on lets dance' machogiri are gone.


I never thought I will hear Darth Singha say this. :-o :eek: :shock:

Whats happening to the world!! :mrgreen:

------------------

More seriously, I am not sure if indeed the days of rough and ready are gone. Hi-tech which is "delicate" is usually a short-term option at best -- what we need (we as in all of us including US) -- is hi-tech which is also rough and ready.

"I am not sure if spend 100 hours gluing a panel in a/c room to get optimum stealth" -- is a valid workable solution. These things are fine as long as things dont get really hot, but after they do, the more robust solution even if at slightly lower tech levels will win.

I believe we are seeing this in many places -- there is a need to have electronics which take a lot of s*** and dont pack up in heat and dust. Airframes which can be turned around quickly, modular designs etc etc.

A pack of wolves may be infra-dig, but a wolf pack or heyna pack often survives when the Lion does not.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 12:55 
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Gilles wrote:
Here we go again!


Yes indeed! I will once again continue to point out your hypocritical spin, lies and evasions

Gilles wrote:
Page 7, Posted: 06 Apr 2011 20:01


here is your post from then:
Gilles wrote:
The Russians require that anyone buying "military" hardware or spares must buy them through State owned Rosoboronexport. This situation allows for an Indian Airline that would operate IL-76s (there are none) to go purchase spares directly from the parts manufacturers, but force the IAF to buy the same spares for the same IL-76 from Rosoboronexport. Same goes for all dual use equipment like the Mi-8/17, the MI-26.......


Which just states what we already knew from articles. It does ZERO to address how India could resolve the situation or why we should trust them in the future. If India has to deal with Rosoboronexport and Rosoboronexport is being a problem, how does that give any confidence of supply in the future?

You did NOT provide any hypothetical solution until your most recent post saying that a proxy company could bypass Rosoboronexport.

Gilles wrote:
1) About the Australians. They have HUNDREDS of unpaved runways in Australia. Why didn't they simply use a few of those to try out their new C-17 instead of building a "C-17 capable unpaved runway" ?


Now who is feigning amnesia?

viewtopic.php?p=771792#p771792

GeorgeWelch wrote:
That's not what that document says at all.

It was meant to be a demo of the Joint Rapid Airfield Construction (JRAC) program, in other words, they SPECIFICALLY went looking for airfields that were NOT C-17 capable.

Quote:
Of the eight airfield sites surveyed [not hundreds], two of the existing airfields (Samuel Hill and Williamson) and the two undeveloped sites (Angalarri and Ikymbon) were identified as candidate sites for development into C-17 capable airfields. However, the two existing airfields at SWBTA were deemed so close to C-17 capable in their current conditions that they would not provide enough opportunity for JRAC technologies to be demonstrated [ie they were too easy] in a fullscale demonstration project. Of the two undeveloped sites at the BFTA, the Ikymbon site is the most desirable as it is much nearer to current areas and facilities under development, and it is closer to water and developed borrow sites needed for construction.


They weren't testing the C-17, they were testing their ability to rapidly construct a runway. A point that is obvious to anyone who spent 15 seconds browsing the document.

Gilles wrote:
Quote:
The goal of the 2007 JRAC demonstration will be to upgrade an existing airfield to C-17
capable, including adding ramp space and increasing
These people visited a bunch of unpaved airfields in Australia and detailed what would be necessary to UPGRADE these landing fields to make them "C-17 capable". And it was not always a problem of length.

Why did they just not go and land somewhere ? A wild guess, anyone ?


:rotfl:

You quoted their goal and you STILL can't figure it out, unbelievable!

Let me repeat it again, in bold, in caps so maybe you will get it:

THEY WERE TESTING THEIR ABILITY TO RAPIDLY CONSTRUCT A RUNWAY

Landing a C-17 on an existing airfield does NOT test your ability to RAPIDLY CONSTRUCT A RUNWAY

Again, the test was NOT about the C-17, it was about their ability to RAPIDLY CONSTRUCT A RUNWAY

It even says in the title "Joint Rapid Airfield Construction (JRAC)"


Gilles wrote:
2) Camp Rhino. I did not claim the C-17 couldn't not land there if it rained. Major Erik W. Hansen, a USAF pilot wrote that, in a published document that I referenced and quoted, and I will do it again here:


No he didn't. Stop misinterpreting people

Quote:
Rhino LZ had almost 7,000 feet of runway and therefore more than adequate runway for takeoffs and landings especially
since conditions remained dry throughout Rhino LZ operations


He said it was MORE THAN ADEQUATE 'especially since' and 'solely because'. Notice the difference in terminology? Even if it had been wet, it still would have been adequate, but being dry gave them super-large margins of safety.

let's continue the quote from above:

Quote:
In future operations, the use of shorter semi-prepared airfields may be required; adequate takeoff, rejected takeoff and landing data will be critical.


In other words, Rhino was long enough to be ok, but shorter fields will be problematic until we can get real data

Now let's examine some of the details you ignored/glossed over:

Quote:
aircrews currently calculate the landing distance for wet semi-prepared runways using an RCR of 4, the same used for icy paved runways


Since they didn't have actual data for wet SPR ops, they based the calculation off a worst-case scenario: ice.

We already know it isn't nearly that bad, both from common sense and the actual tests done later. In other words, using the current calculations, Rhino would WELL within safety margins.

Quote:
The normal (RCR 20) landing distance of a 447,000 lb (max gross weight for semi-prepared runway operations) C-17 is increased from 2,930-feet at sea level on a standard day to 5,370-feet using full max braking and max reverse thrust during wet runway operations.


5,370 landing distance is well under the nearly 7,000-foot length of the runway.

Quote:
The Engineering Technical Letter, which provides guidance to civil engineers indicates that C-17s require a 7,000 foot runway during wet runway operations


And Rhino was nearly 7,000 feet, so even going by the absolute worst case calculation (ice) and max landing weight, it was probably fine.

BUT let's say the commander is a stickler for details and doesn't want to 'risk' it even though the RCR is obviously higher than that of ice? Simply land the planes a little lighter and Rhino will accomodate even worst-case assumptions. Thus rain would not have shut down Rhino and no one claimed that. At worst it would have slightly reduced the load of each plane.


Gilles wrote:
3) Alert.
Alert has a 5500 gravel runway, more than enough for a C-17. I was making fun of the Canadian Air Force, who, several years after buying the C-17 (and claiming in Parliament they needed it among other things for supplying Alert), had never landed there in a C-17.


No, you said it COULD NOT go there

Quote:
The only reason I began this, is because that this alleged C-17 short and unpaved runway capability is used as a major selling point and was also mentioned in this thread. It was also advertised as such in Canada, and now that they are purchased, the Canadian Air Force does not land on unpaved runways with theirs. Canada even rented a civilian C-130 to haul freight to a 5,900 foot military gravel runway in our Arctic (CFB Alert) because its so-called STOL C-17 could not go there.


Not that the government was being overly cautious, not that they were gradually working up to a full capability, but that it flat-out could not do it.

Gilles wrote:
I don't claim any such thing. What I claim is that civilian airlines have no trouble maintaining their IL-76s. They find parts, servicing etc. Why does the IAF have trouble getting parts ?


I don't know. But it apparently has been extremely frustrating for the IAF. What is your explanation?

What I do know is that they're going to be hesitant to invest any more in the planes until the situation is resolved.

Gilles wrote:
Why do they only want to find a new contract for those aircraft that have not been upgraded ? It seems that they have resolved the problem for those aircraft that are to be upgraded ? Right ?


Not necessarily. Just because they aren't asking for those aircraft to be covered doesn't mean they're satisfied. They may be contractually prohibited from doing so on those aircraft. Until we know more, it would be unwise to make any assumptions about satisfaction with spares.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 18:33 
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GeorgeWelch wrote:
If India has to deal with Rosoboronexport and Rosoboronexport is being a problem, how does that give any confidence of supply in the future?


You just do not know that. Its pure speculation on your part. Maybe there is am unresolved conflict which may not even involve aircraft (subs or tanks, or AK-47s) which is causing the problem. Venezuela is not getting F-16 parts from the US, it's not because the parts aren't available.

Some years ago, I remember one country that was claiming it could not get spares from Russia for maintaining its Russian Fighters. Then Russia put out a statement. The State of Russia owed that country money, a debt inherited from the USSR. Well that country, instead of buying spares for its fighters, wanted the Russian State to pay for the spares to the Russian suppliers, and deduct the money from the debt. Russia was unwilling or unable to accept such an arrangement at the time so the other country's fighters remained mostly grounded as a result. It didn't mean the parts were not available. It's because the buyer country did not want to pay for them, because of an unrelated commercial conflict.

I do not know the nature of the problem between India and Rosoboronexport, but neither do you! The fact is that IL-76 parts are available to others, but the IAF has a procurement problem to get them. Unless someone here who has the inside story decides to enlighten us over it, you cannot speculate that Rosoboronexport is a problem and that the Russians are unreliable.


Last edited by Gilles on 02 Nov 2011 19:07, edited 6 times in total.

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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 18:39 
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GeorgeWelch wrote:
Gilles wrote:
1) About the Australians. They have HUNDREDS of unpaved runways in Australia. Why didn't they simply use a few of those to try out their new C-17 instead of building a "C-17 capable unpaved runway" ?


Now who is feigning amnesia?

viewtopic.php?p=771792#p771792

GeorgeWelch wrote:
That's not what that document says at all.

It was meant to be a demo of the Joint Rapid Airfield Construction (JRAC) program, in other words, they SPECIFICALLY went looking for airfields that were NOT C-17 capable.


If that were true, George, they could have built and used that specially built runway, while at the same time landing their C-17s any of the numerous other Australian unpaved runways. But they didn't! The ONLY Australian unpaved runway that ever got to see the C-17 was the one they built for it. Why ? Isn't that a little fishy to you ?

Also, if you read the report, the project was was not about "constructing" runways out of the bush, but about upgrading existing runways so that a C-17 could use it. So we start with an aircraft that can land on unpaved runway, but we first need to upgrade the existing unpaved runways so that the C-17 can land.

In Canada: After 3 years of no unpaved runway operation, Canada has finally landed its C-17 on two unpaved runway in the high arctic, Resolute and Alert, (and the only reason you know about it by the way, is because I POSTED IT HERE), but only because these runways (6500 feet and 5500 feet long) are built on perma frost ground that is as hard as concrete. The two unpaved runways where they landed the C-17 also saw the landings of Boeing 737s, Lockheed P-3s and Bombardier Challenger jets. Come on! See the light!


Last edited by Gilles on 02 Nov 2011 19:56, edited 4 times in total.

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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 18:54 
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GeorgeWelch wrote:
No, you said it COULD NOT go there

Quote:
The only reason I began this, is because that this alleged C-17 short and unpaved runway capability is used as a major selling point and was also mentioned in this thread. It was also advertised as such in Canada, and now that they are purchased, the Canadian Air Force does not land on unpaved runways with theirs. Canada even rented a civilian C-130 to haul freight to a 5,900 foot military gravel runway in our Arctic (CFB Alert) because its so-called STOL C-17 could not go there.


"Could not" in the sense that they were not allowed to go there.

By the way, after making much PR around the fact that they had finally used the C-17 to re-supply CFS Alert in 2010 (hauling around 45 tonnes per flight), I Googled all over the internet and was unable to find any trace of a C-17 in Alert in the 2011 Boxtop operation, which took place between August and September 2011. I found a few pictures of C-130s on the ground in Alert, but no articles, no C-17 pictures, nothing.......

To show you how landing in gravel CFS Alert was a non event, a couple pictures:

B-737 on the ground in Alert in 2009:

http://www.tripadvisor.fr/LocationPhotos-g670329-w3-Alert_Nunavut.html#23005575

CP-140 Aurora (Canadian version pf P3) in Alert

http://www.airforce.forces.gc.ca/14w-14e/nr-sp/index-eng.asp?id=11739#photos


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 19:58 
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Gilles wrote:
If that were true, George,


Wow, observe the Gilles reality distortion field in effect everyone!

What do you mean IF?

Right there in the document:

Quote:
The purpose of these site visits was to scout potential sites for the JRAC program’s final demonstration project scheduled for 2007


They had spent money developing the JRAC team and wanted a suitable demonstration of its capability. Do you deny that? How can you deny that?

Gilles wrote:
they could have built and used that specially built runway, while at the same time landing their C-17s any of the numerous other Australian unpaved runways. But they didn't!


Your 'proof' that there were no suitable runways in Australia is that they didn't use other ones? Really? Gilles, Gilles, Gilles, have you learned nothing from your Alert foot-in-mouth debacle?

Just because they don't choose to do something to satisfy your demands doesn't mean they can't.

They didn't fly to Alert for years, which proved they can't. Until they did.

They didn't use other fields in Australia, which proves they can't. Do you see the problem with your 'logic' yet?


Gilles wrote:
The ONLY Australian unpaved runway that ever got to see the C-17 was the one they built for it. Why ? Isn't that a little fishy to you ?


No more 'fishy' than not flying to Alert for years.

What I find really hilarious is your desire to find problem where there are none (Australian dirt fields, Alert, etc) while pretending that real problems that the Air Force actually complains about (Il-76 spares) aren't an issue.


Gilles wrote:
Canada did the same by the way. After 3 years of no unpaved runway operation, Canada has finally landed its C-17 on two unpaved runway in the high arctic, Resolute and Alert, (and the only reason you know about it by the way, is because I POSTED IT HERE), but only because these runways (6500 feet and 5500 feet long) are built on perma frost ground that is as hard as concrete.


They were hard as concrete well before the C-17 came, so why the delay? Who knows? What we do know is that it is NOT because the aircraft wasn't capable of it (which is what you repeatedly try claim).


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 20:02 
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Gilles wrote:
"Could not" in the sense that they were not allowed to go there.


So is that a limitation of the plane or the government?

It's clearly not a limitation of the plane, so what's your point here?

If it's not a limitation of the plane, it's not relevant on an INDIAN forum.

If you want to complain about CANADA's policies, go to a CANADIAN forum.


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PostPosted: 02 Nov 2011 20:10 
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Gilles wrote:
By the way, after making much PR around the fact that they had finally used the C-17 to re-supply CFS Alert in 2010 (hauling around 45 tonnes per flight), I Googled all over the internet and was unable to find any trace of a C-17 in Alert in the 2011 Boxtop operation, which took place between August and September 2011. I found a few pictures of C-130s on the ground in Alert, but no articles, no C-17 pictures, nothing.......


Did it ever occur to you that maybe the CC-177s were a little bit busy elsewhere? Like, maybe HELPING WITH THE CANADIAN WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN?


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PostPosted: 03 Nov 2011 02:57 
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Dumb and un-educated people fall for demagogy, the intelligent and the educated see right through it.
Are we posting here for the dumb and the un-educated, or for the intelligent and the educated ? I know who I write for GeorgeWelch. You..... we'll I'm not too certain.


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