Libyan War

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 31 Mar 2011 18:37

Sorry if this thought was expressed before, but isn't this Western mainstream media hyper-ventilation about Gadaffi and Mubarak a little jarring? Remember that the same media was very fond of Zia-ul_Haq and Musharraf in Pakistan.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Mar 2011 19:19

>Could anyone let us know what those 6 * flat-panels on the spine of the 2000 are?

flare dispenser with 18 rounds?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Mar 2011 19:27

interesting pic - the MirageIV could use 8 RATO jettisionable boosters at edge of its wing to shorten takeoff run in emergencies

http://www.flight-simulator-world.org/i ... ge4_02.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Mar 2011 19:38

cnn

"Our greatest hope will rely mainly on the support of the international coalition forces in the form of change of tactics from the air to (not only) target tanks and heavy artillery of Gadhafi's forces but also take out groups of snipers positioned on buildings and in the city."

Rebel forces have lost Bin Jawad and the key oil town of Ras Lanuf and are backed up to the al-Brega area, opposition member Col. Ahmed Bani said Wednesday.

Ajdabiya, which is east of al-Brega, will be prepared as a "defense point" if the withdrawal continues farther east, he said.

Weather conditions prevented a NATO-led coalition from launching more airstrikes in an attempt to weaken Gadhafi's ability to attack civilians, a U.S. representative said Wednesday.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 31 Mar 2011 19:48

the way the rebels are going, even a bunch of boyscouts armed with slingshots would put them to flight
until significant portions of the army defect, nothing is going to happen
i wonder if Musa Kusa is being primed as a takeover candidate?

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 31 Mar 2011 20:04

NATO forces on the ground will probably use hand-held target locators to pass on GPS coords for close air support, especially in populated areas. A small PGM can take out a tank parked between buildings. Can't trust the locals with this stuff as they will settle ancient tribal and family feuds first using NATO PGMs. Same thing in FakAp.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Mar 2011 21:48

if you catch a 1000 civilians off the campuses of bengaluru colleges how many can fight like the rebels are doing - harsh climate, little food or water, sleeping the open, running up and down the coast road with the ebb and flow of the fight, operating HMGs, RPG7s, LMGs, rifles, katyushas...very few.

so how come the rebels are doing it? Does Libya have a 2 year conscription policy and armed training for all youngsters?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 31 Mar 2011 22:29

i suspect that there are a few with military and 'ncc' type background
but also there is a high degree of 'desert mard' culture prevalent, where mards are used to handling some weapons and doing macho posing
probably the culturual history of tribal warfare is not too far in the past

Craig Alpert · Post by **Craig Alpert** » 01 Apr 2011 00:18

SEE EYE YAY in Libya; NATO takes over air operations

In another blow to the regime, U.S. officials revealed Wednesday that the CIA has sent small teams of operatives into rebel-held eastern Libya while the White House debates whether to arm the opposition.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Apr 2011 07:30

CIA involvement is an absolute guarantee that 15 years from now we will have the north african afghanistan. poor libyans - the cure might turn out to be worse than the disease.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Apr 2011 07:44

Singha wrote:if you catch a 1000 civilians off the campuses of bengaluru colleges how many can fight like the rebels are doing - harsh climate, little food or water, sleeping the open, running up and down the coast road with the ebb and flow of the fight, operating HMGs, RPG7s, LMGs, rifles, katyushas...very few.

so how come the rebels are doing it? Does Libya have a 2 year conscription policy and armed training for all youngsters?

My college days were like that onlee

Harsh climate (not Bengaluru) - check
Little food - check
Sleeping in the open (gutter after a night out) - check
Running up and down the coast road - check
Operating (on something or the other) - check

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Apr 2011 07:48

Lalmohan wrote:i suspect that there are a few with military and 'ncc' type background
but also there is a high degree of 'desert mard' culture prevalent, where mards are used to handling some weapons and doing macho posing
probably the culturual history of tribal warfare is not too far in the past

http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/libya

Number of Privately Owned Firearms
The estimated total number of guns held by civilians in Libya is 900,000

Rate of Civilian Firearm Possession per 100 Population
The rate of private gun ownership in Libya is 15.52 firearms per 100 people

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Apr 2011 09:29

thats quite a lot of firearms - out of 100, lets say 50 are males. discount 30 as kids below 18 and people over 50. that leaves 20 in the 'fighting age group of 18-50'. almost all of them would have a gun if the statistic be right !!

Shiv saar - yeah yeah but that was then - tough old jipmer days I guess. my father in agri college used to rent a rickshaw and drive it himself (with buddies in back) for late night show because 4 people couldnt fit if the real rickshaw driver be there.

I am talking of todays bluru kids - I dont see them wielding a gun except in video games. but rich looking libyan kids in barcelona track suits, nike shoes and hilfiger jackets are doing just that.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Apr 2011 11:34

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/at ... 1301581327

psyops at work - TWO cameramen just to document the gulf mirages arriving

rebels were having fun firing off rockets
http://img861.imageshack.us/img861/9306/800xwp.jpg
and then a counterfire shell hit a truck...so the immediate downhill ski...no concept of digging in and building a proper strongpoint
http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/2971/800xp.jpg
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/8051/800xgt.jpg
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/3026/800xom.jpg
http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/2964/800xn.jpg

--
this is like kids in india throwing stones at a grumpy mans window or a mango tree and running away when a chowkidar appears - except the kids have AKs and RPGs and the chowkidar has artillery lol.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Apr 2011 13:31

before and after pic of what appears like a weapons depot in Sabha after the B1's visited
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5135/557 ... 7ddc_b.jpg

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 01 Apr 2011 13:59

i bet sarko and dawood kamran are kicking themselves for having jumped the gun on this
its turning into a kurdistan type scenario
skynews reporting that MI6 has been talking to 12 libyan senior officials - i guess a deal is being worked out

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Apr 2011 19:13

my unscientific estimate of the number of libyan rebels on the coastal push is around 1500 max. there seems to be no attempt or resources to push into the interior toward Shaba from Ajdabiya Jn.

thats scarcely about a reinforced batallion hoping to take over a country.

and they are completely incapable of fighting or moving cross country and are glued to their cars & pickups on the single road....making the task of qadhafi's defenders quite easy.

in the end I think sher khan will get frustrated and
[a] walk away from the unholy mess leaving the EU to sort it out
or
start heavy bombardment of tripoli area military targets including qadhafi compound hoping to spook him

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 01 Apr 2011 19:15

going into the interior is also possibly a logistical nightmare
it is deep sahara, possibly not worth the toil to take territory

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Apr 2011 19:18

this famous pic must be somewhere in southern libya , niger or chad ... the dark territories...captured slaves from west africa were marched east through this brutal place.

http://www.johnmariani.com/archive/2006 ... _libya.jpg

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 01 Apr 2011 19:35

i think there is a lot going on behind the scenes - remember that the gulf sheikhs have no love for Col G either, and egypt might be happier without him being around
they are working for a coup within the palace

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Apr 2011 10:17

finally a real weapon - a jeep mounted RCL cannon
http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/2627/800xt.jpg

there is speculation that this guy in top quality hiking boots and grand cherokee is a hispanic JSOC member or ex-JSOC CIA contractor..he seems interested in the proceedings but aloof and in control...not prone to the usual AOA and ak phyrr hysterics...a pretty dangerous guy imo.
http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/2971/800xp.jpg

rafale's getting ready in lineup - sleek as usual
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yJrx0iy0AAk/T ... ission.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4otbDGb7uPQ/T ... 1%2529.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Apr 2011 10:23

btw both the OSF IRST and LLTV atop the rafale nose seem to have a sliding cover that protects them when not in use...seen that in flying pics too. perhaps it helps to reduce frontal RCS.

Bala Vignesh · Post by **Bala Vignesh** » 02 Apr 2011 12:17

Singha wrote:my unscientific estimate of the number of libyan rebels on the coastal push is around 1500 max. there seems to be no attempt or resources to push into the interior toward Shaba from Ajdabiya Jn.

thats scarcely about a reinforced batallion hoping to take over a country.

and they are completely incapable of fighting or moving cross country and are glued to their cars & pickups on the single road....making the task of qadhafi's defenders quite easy.

in the end I think sher khan will get frustrated and
[a] walk away from the unholy mess leaving the EU to sort it out
or
start heavy bombardment of tripoli area military targets including qadhafi compound hoping to spook him

Singhaji,
The rebels may be just happy with taking down tripoli and leave the rest of the country as such..Since the whole idea behind this revolution is to remove Col Gadha-fi from power, they might be more than content with capturing/killing him and his family and be done with it.
Of course the above is purely my opinion...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Apr 2011 12:44

video of M2000 and rafale doing AAR on libya mission
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XASz1fex4Mg

Henrik · Post by **Henrik** » 02 Apr 2011 21:15

The first 3 Gripens together with 4 C-130s (one tanker and three transport) have arrived in Sardinia, the other 5 Gripens will arrive Sunday morning local time together with a SIGINT aircraft.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Apr 2011 22:54

wow thats a serious commitment to the 'cause'

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2011 16:46

close up pic of the rafale 3-rack for AASM

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V2fndBl3x2I/T ... ncaise.jpg

gives the rafale a good a2g load of 6 guided bombs, 2 fuel tanks, 1 damocles pod, 2 MicaIR aam

in A2A mode, these can presumably carry 6 Mica EM and skip the damocles pod for a total of 2 drop tanks and 8 aams -again a excellent load. more aam's could be lugged under fuselage pylons but dont think more than 8 is a realistic number for a single mission.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2011 18:58

AFP

Libya rebels and troops in Brega stalemate

By Marc Burleigh (AFP) – 5 hours ago

NEAR BREGA, Libya — A far away boom, a faint whistle that grows more audible, then an inevitable crack and explosion in the sand by the road as the artillery shell explodes just metres (yards) away.

The Libyan rebels who had pulled back from the battleground oil refinery town of Brega had thought they were safe at this distance but Moamer Kadhafi's troops were teaching them otherwise.

Another three shells whistle in, exploding close to rebel pick-up trucks with big guns welded in the back, close to boxes of ammunition laid on the side of the road. Small blasts kick up black smoke and dust.

Scores of fighters and a handful of journalists scramble for vehicles, tear off down the road to put even more desert between them and Kadhafi's shells.

Another stop several kilometres (a few miles) further on. Kadhafi's artillery and the rebels' big-calibre response fuse into an intense over-the-horizon thunder. Then another artillery crack comes too close, and the rebels retreat again.

The pullback is hasty but measured, the insurgents finally learning after more than a month of desert combat that high-adrenaline rushes -- forward or backward -- are counter-productive.

Their panic is shorter-lived -- as is their bravura. They now know that Kadhafi's men will not risk moving forward into the open desert, where they are easy targets for NATO airstrikes.

Instead the regime's forces are sticking close to, or even inside, towns like Brega, in defensive postures or lying in ambush.

"We found three or four foxholes, where Kadhafi's soldiers were hiding yesterday to shoot at us," one fighter, Said Bohlega, 27, said.

Another, Mohamed Jahmi, said he had seen NATO aircraft flying low over the area early Monday, but they did not launch any missiles or bombs.

It is a stalemate that has dragged on for days. After each dawn, the rebels probe forward to see how far they can get. Eventually, after a few hours, Kadhafi's shells persuade them to pull back, and they fire their rockets at an unseen enemy.

Early Monday, the rebels had moved cautiously forward to the edge of Brega, an advance of just a few kilometres (a couple of miles) over the previous day. They believed it a victory, however small.

Grouped at the entrance to the sprawling university campus on the edge of town, they joked and argued and passed around water and bread as they calculated that they were safe from shell bursts seen some distance ahead.

But the boom of a titanic drum and a low, dreadful whistle followed by a thunderclap nearby sent them scurrying into their vehicles, most of which were already parked facing the other way to allow a rapid getaway.

Many of the rebels had been sticking to the tarmac of the road itself, after discovering suspicious long wires in the dirt and gravel hard shoulder of the highway outside Brega, reinforcing fears that landmines had been planted.

In the end, successive stop-start retreats prompted by artillery blasts pushed them all the way back to the spot thay had been stopped at nearly a week ago.

Their short "advance" on Monday was illusory. They were making no headway. Brega, a town strategic only for its oil refinery, remained elusively out of their control.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2011 18:58

allies killed 10 rebels in a vehicle near brega yesterday in a case of mistaken id.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2011 19:01

the choices for allies are :
(1) get set for a prolonged civil war , pump in money and heavy weapons, bomb qadhafi continuously....
cons: escalating cost, lack of domestic public support, chance of islamists gaining more foothold the longer it rages, limited manpower of rebels and weak training for serious fighting that would be needed to take tripoli.

(2) recognize the rebel govt, get the UN to rubber stamp a partition and welcome the new country of Cyrenaica under UN protection with peacekeepers on the ground at the border, offer Saif qadhafi that allies will lay off if he lays off and signs off unofficially on the breakaway republic.
cons: qadhafi still in place, could foment trouble, the new mahdi could be another qadhafi after a while...

btw Italy recognized the rebel govt today, second country after france to grant formal ties.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2011 19:06

my prediction is some form of (2) hammered out through back channels in next month.

the rebels will be armed and trained enough to safeguard their patch of turf under allies supervision. will integrate economically with egypt and qatar will help run their oil industry.

control of the contested oilheads like brega and ras lanuf when the ink is put on paper is critical to giving the rebels a sustainable economy other than exporting beach sand, dates and fish and importing tourists...

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 04 Apr 2011 19:22

Singha wrote:allies killed 10 rebels in a vehicle near brega yesterday in a case of mistaken id.

saw the report on skytv - apparently according to the rebels, one of their chaps fired a zsu23 at the aircraft by mistake and the column got bombed almost immediately afterwards. rebels were sanguine about it, but then... there were other clips of newsmen being at the receiving end of gaddafi's artillery and tank fire... rebels are not in good shape

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 04 Apr 2011 20:03

It is increasingly looking likely that if NATO really wants to win this, they will need their own boots on the ground. The rebels look more like a ragtag bunch of hooligans with AKs than soldiers. With no artillery or armor of their own, they can never defeat Gaddafi's forces, unless NATO decides to bomb the towns and cities where Gaddafi's forces are located, which they won't due to civilian casualties.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2011 21:21

indeed. and both artillery and armour need professional soldiers in good training to use effectively. thats not happening even if the rebels can get some deserters to use it , maybe because such assets and units were kept in places where qadhafi still rules.

bolting a few katyusha tubes to the back of trucks and firing them off in general direction of tripoli isnt shaking anyone up.

the warthogs and AC130s have no exposed targets to attack.

NATO can perhaps scrape together a expeditionary brigade of sorts and get them into benghazi using amphib assault ships pooled from all navies but it will likely take a month to get that show on the road once approved by the Coven Elders. and they will need a land, air and sea logistical chain stretching back to Italy and France....a vast expense they can ill afford.

Sher Khan has a marine MEU all armed and ready in the Med which could turn the tide of war by landing directly at Sirte and Misrata under heavy air cover, with organic abrams and AAAV armour protection. one prong cleans up the road to ajdabiya. the main prong heads for tripoli but civilian casualties will be heavy and it will be a direct ground war which by all accounts Obama is not interested in.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 04 Apr 2011 21:31

surely an intervention in tripoli directly is the most cost effective?

SureshP · Post by **SureshP** » 04 Apr 2011 21:57

Sentinel acquires the ground targets for RAF

manum · Post by **manum** » 04 Apr 2011 22:00

Is there any visible leader seen from rebel side? Or some umbrella to identify them...or its all generic jingo's fighting for freedom...

for whom allied forces fighting...If Libya can offer a serious tradeoff through war then only they will try to expedite it...or else it'll remain a open wound to cause a cancer...

I am still looking for a serious attempt by allied forces...and if Gaddafi is not to be negotiated then why he is not being hunted?
Or its because they require ground forces in libya to do that...and for them they will require an Iraq...
Wow am I treading on wrong graphics of situation?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Apr 2011 22:28

there is a deserter rebel jernail. thickset guy who is mix of omar sharif, gen dostum and a serbian warlord in looks.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 05 Apr 2011 00:54

Lybia : A rafale destroys an armored vehicle at a distance of more than 55 km

A rafale from the french Air Force managed to destroy an armored vehicle dropping an A2SM munition at more than fifty-five kilometers from its target during the first day of operations.

A first in the history of French aviation, made possible through the air to ground armament modular, a stand-off munition capable to be driven long distance with remarkable accuracy. It allows the aircraft to remain out of reach of air defenses the enemy. Until now, A2SM was qualified for a distance of 50 km.

This weapon is manufactured by the French Sagem. Admittedly, its price is high, around 115,000 euros each, but it can destroy quickly much more expensive materials. A Rafale can fire up to six AASM.

Monday, April 4, 2011

Jean-Dominique Merchet

http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showth ... 55&page=12

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Apr 2011 01:10

The Euros learnt a lesson from US in Iraq wars. They learnt to show case their arms technology in order to boost future sales.