India-Qatar Fallout: News & Discussion

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 26 Oct 2023 17:33

Starting this thread to collate the recent turn of events with Qatar's decision to award the death penalty to eight ex-Indian Navy personnel.

https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/17 ... 55250?s=20 ---> Qatar court sentences eight former Indian Navy personnel to death after detaining them for more than a year. All proceedings were held secretly. Entire world is shocked. Indian Govt said it is deeply shocked over the verdict and is exploring all the legal options.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 26 Oct 2023 17:36

India needs to respond forcibly to Qatar telling them in under no circumstances they put them to death.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Oct 2023 17:40

Time to cut Qatar loose - or cut them up into pieces. This is some kind of stunt by them. They need to understand they'll receive severe stunts in return.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Oct 2023 20:08

Funny how the USA is the guarantor of safety for this country.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Oct 2023 21:07

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Oct 2023 21:11

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Oct 2023 21:25

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 26 Oct 2023 21:53

India needs to make it clear that the Al Thanis wont be able to sell one BTU of gas if they harm these personnel. They need to be returned to India ASAP. And if the sentence is carried out, a death warrant for the Al Thanis would be simultaneously in effect. CENTCOM can go to hell.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Oct 2023 22:13

Here's my suggestion:
to handle these Qatari swine, we need to start leaning towards their Saudi adversaries

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 26 Oct 2023 22:20

Rakesh wrote: ↑26 Oct 2023 17:33 https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/17 ... 55250?s=20 ---> Qatar court sentences eight former Indian Navy personnel to death after detaining them for more than a year. All proceedings were held secretly. Entire world is shocked. Indian Govt said it is deeply shocked over the verdict and is exploring all the legal options.

Kadi Ninda or we have any real options too here ?
Too many indians in Qatar sending remittances - thats the only tangible issue for India.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Oct 2023 22:35

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 26 Oct 2023 22:50

YashG wrote: ↑26 Oct 2023 22:20 Kadi Ninda or we have any real options too here ?
Too many indians in Qatar sending remittances - thats the only tangible issue for India.

Not sure what options are actually available, without it spiraling into a full blown conflict. And since you mentioned about Indian expats sending remittances from Qatar, it makes the matter even more contentious. Apart from diplomatic engagements and pressure from other nations (assuming that would have some effect on Qatar), I doubt any viable option is really available. The timing of this verdict is also suspect IMVHO - right around the 2024 General Elections.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Oct 2023 22:53

Right now we can handle this diplomatically. If they carry rishi out, we will need hunt the royal family of Qatar.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 26 Oct 2023 22:57

==== irrelevant impractical post deleted ====

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 27 Oct 2023 00:22

The biggest customers of Qatari LNG are as below:-

"In 2021, Qatar exported $57.2B in Petroleum Gas, making it the 3rd largest exporter of Petroleum Gas in the world. At the same year, Petroleum Gas was the 1st most exported product in Qatar. The main destination of Petroleum Gas exports from Qatar are: India ($7.52B), China ($5.94B), South Korea ($5.5B), United Kingdom ($4.71B), and Pakistan ($4.58B)."

If Qataris murder the Indian navy officers, we can use our subs to sink some of the traffic to Pakistan and China. After the first sinking, all shipment companies will refuse to pick up the gas till a ceasefire is declared. China can not influence anything so far from their home base.

The US and UK will secretly be happy at this outcome. No one can stand the Al Thanis anymore. The Kingdom will see a coup and it should be handed over to the progressive leadership of Indian allies - Sheikh MBS and Sheikh MBZ.

Simultaneously, we should manufacture long range ballistic missiles that can easily sink oil and LNG tankers. We dont necessarily need an expeditionary force to make people see sense. These weapons + strong allies in the region (I2U2) will ensure dung beetles like the Al Thanis stay in their holes.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 27 Oct 2023 00:26

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 27 Oct 2023 00:43

Did Pak ISI have a hand in Qatar's actions against Indian ex-Navy servicemen?

Death For 8 Former Indian Navy Officers In Qatar | Left, Right & Centre

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 27 Oct 2023 01:44

From Admiral Arun Prakash (retd), former Chief of Staff, Indian Navy.

https://x.com/arunp2810/status/1717562919775338646?s=20 ---> Under this 2015 agreement, convicted individuals can be repatriated to serve out the sentence at home. Sentence of IN Veterans must be commuted or pardon obtained & this agreement invoked.

Qatar-India prisoners’ transfer agreement gets approval
https://www.gulf-times.com/story/457893 ... proval/amp
07 Oct 2015

Qatar's Cabinet on Wednesday took the necessary steps to endorse six agreements, including one on transfer of sentenced prisoners, that were signed during HH the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani’s visit to India in March this year. Under the agreement on extradition of convicts, Indian nationals sentenced in Qatar can be sent to their home country to serve the remaining part of their jail term. Similarly, Qatari citizens convicted in India can be brought to Qatar to serve their sentence. According to an official statement released on the occasion of the signing of the agreement, this deal would enable the sentenced people to be near their families and would help in their social rehabilitation. The official Qatar News Agency (QNA), quoting HE the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Ahmed bin Abdullah al-Mahmoud said the other pacts endorsed included a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Qatar and India’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology and an MoU for co-operation in broadcasting and television services.

It also endorsed an MoU for co-operation in the field of diplomatic training between the Diplomatic Institute at Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Institute of Foreign Service at India’s Ministry of External Affairs. Besides, the Cabinet endorsed an MoU on scientific and technological co-operation between Qatar’s Civil Aviation Authority and the Earth System Science Organization at India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, as well as an agreement on co-operation and news exchange between QNA and United News of India. After the regular Cabinet meeting chaired by HE the Prime Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa al-Thani at the Emiri Diwan, HE al-Mahmoud said the Cabinet ratified a draft law on marine vessels, which it defined as “any floating vehicle that functions in marine or sports navigation or be equipped for this task with a load capacity of no more than 200 tonnes even if it’s not for profit”. According to the bill, marine vessels are not allowed to sail until they are registered. The draft law stipulates the terms of registration, application procedures for registration and the validity of registration certificates. It prohibits any person from driving such vessels without a valid licence.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 27 Oct 2023 02:02

The timing of this event is very very curious. This could be their comeuppance... overdue for a long time.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 27 Oct 2023 02:12

India could lean on France, a lot Qatari money is parked there. We can ban Qatar Airways from landing in India. Stop buying gas from them but they will simply sell more to Europe.

They may be thinking that they can activate lot of sleeper cells in retaliation to India's moves, or hasten the application of the sentences, but that would be a very costly mistake.

But let's first give diplomacy a chance.

If soft options don't work then we have several hard options.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 27 Oct 2023 02:15

Their secret trial and sentencing is a sham. Perhaps our boys inadvertently stumbled upon something very very verboten?!

There is some Italian connection to all this as well iirc. Murky waters.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 27 Oct 2023 02:18

Cyrano wrote: ↑27 Oct 2023 02:15 Their secret trial and sentencing is a sham. Perhaps our boys inadvertently stumbled upon something very very verboten?!

There is some Italian connection to all this as well iirc. Murky waters.

Maybe Honest.A.Blinken will soon come out with a statement asking India to "COOPERATE WITH THE QATARIS IN THEIR INVESTIGATION"

It's noteworthy how so many of those coming after us are America's close friends. "With friends like these, who needs enemies?"
Like I said - we need Pokhran-3. We're being sucker-punched too many times.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 27 Oct 2023 02:42

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 27 Oct 2023 03:07

Sanman ji, every thing looks like a nail...?!

Will, intent, tact are always needed no matter what weapons we have or don't.

We lacked these a few times in the past. No more. A lot can be done before we go that far against gas stations

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 27 Oct 2023 03:15

It will be the downfall of Qatar - if this actually goes through

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 27 Oct 2023 03:19

Cyrano wrote: ↑27 Oct 2023 03:07 Sanman ji, every thing looks like a nail...?!

You mean everything looks like a sucker-punch? Well, I'd think that one should be able to recognize a sucker-punch when one receives it.
Otherwise, if we have to go into extended contemplation over how to characterize something like that, then I guess we're like Dodo Birds or Auks.

"Gee, something is running at me baring its teeth and waving its claws. Is it a threat? Should I do something? Hmm...."

There's a reason why Dodo Birds and Auks went extinct. They didn't have the basic survival reflexes, for whatever reason.

Will, intent, tact are always needed no matter what weapons we have or don't.

We lacked these a few times in the past. No more. A lot can be done before we go that far against gas stations

Like I said, we need some proxies to grab these little emirati royals -- or grab their oil/gas tankers traveling thru IOR.
And if their American guardians squawk, then these Americans should know in advance to ask their emirati protectorates to go patrol the South China Sea with them instead of us. Americans are going to have to make some hard choices here, which they seem to have avoided thinking about thusfar.
It seems every Trudeau and Emir is queuing up to take shots at us.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 27 Oct 2023 04:31

A naval blockade of Qatar should be considered as a serious option. Al Thanis are completely unsuitable to rule and are destabilizing the whole region. Al-Thanis need to be deposed and the country made a part of UAE or KSA. Israel, India, KSA, UAE, Egypt - will all be in favor of this.

We need to react like mad dogs a couple of times before the world learns to leave us alone.

American presence here is irrelevant. What are they going to do? Shoot down an Indian fighter and declare war on India? As long as we dont at Americans, they have no reason to. Al Thanis must be punished.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 27 Oct 2023 05:57

We are in the midst of a thucydides trap!!!!

The chessboard has multiple layers. And, the rules keep changing constantly.

Blood will be spilt - that is what happens when the world order goes through mega changes. This is just the beginning. The end - I think - will come between 2026-30.

And, not much will be left.

Have faith.

Till then post away.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 27 Oct 2023 06:05

Why not arrest 8 qataris in India on espionage charges, conduct a secret sham trial, and do a prisoner exchange. We all know the Qatar trial is a farce. Why not pay back with the same hand?

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 27 Oct 2023 06:12

sudeepj, that would be enough fantasy about taking on a country hosting CENTCOM foreward HQ using Indian Navy etc. Please post analysis that makes sense.

Nothing in Qatar or Bahrain moves a millimeter without Deep State approvals. These guys are the financiers and lodge-owners for keeping the pot stirring in ME, so china don’t get too comfy in cornering oil fields or have monopolies in funding crazies via Iran. That they were being played by deep state, the Saudi/UAE folks got that loud and clear a long while back and tried to straighten out the Qataris, but failed due to khan’s obvious reluctance to replace the current ruling faction.

This is clearly the AngloSax/Five Eyes’ ranging shot against India, after the warning farts from Trudeau. They don’t want India to be too independent. Some red lines got crossed by an uppity South power.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 27 Oct 2023 06:22

IIRC we sell them lot of food items. Stop that first. Start buying gas from elsewhere asap. We can also use "unknown persons".

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 27 Oct 2023 07:00

hnair wrote: ↑27 Oct 2023 06:12 sudeepj, that would be enough fantasy about taking on a country hosting CENTCOM foreward HQ using Indian Navy etc. Please post analysis that makes sense.

Nothing in Qatar or Bahrain moves a millimeter without Deep State approvals. These guys are the financiers and lodge-owners for keeping the pot stirring in ME, so china don’t get too comfy in cornering oil fields or have monopolies in funding crazies via Iran. That they were being played by deep state, the Saudi/UAE folks got that loud and clear a long while back and tried to straighten out the Qataris, but failed due to khan’s obvious reluctance to replace the current ruling faction.

This is clearly the AngloSax/Five Eyes’ ranging shot against India, after the warning farts from Trudeau. They don’t want India to be too independent. Some red lines got crossed by an uppity South power.

There is no need to invade Qatar. Simply, to sink a few Qatari LNG carriers in international waters. No shipment of Qatari gas is possible then.

Possible that Centcom is fully involved in everything that goes on in Bahrain and Qatar.

But if that is 100% true, given the events in the Middle East, it follows that either the centcom kutta is off its leash, or centcom is no longer allied with KSA/UAE/Israel grouping. Both of these possibilities leave enough room for India to make Qatar aware of its 'weight class'. The biggest customers of Qatar are China and India, and EU, not the US. So we are not disrupting US gas flows..

If India can be bullied by a shitty little Qatar, a scant 1000nm from out naval bases, then we deserve to be kicked around. Let Qataris figure out what centcom will do to restrain India. Let us not be afraid of centcom. And let centcom worry about what it will offer to mollify Indians.

PS: Most Indians simply seem to be unware of what India brings to the table in a great power conflict scenario in the world.

3 million volunteers under arms, an unshackled arms manufacturing hub, with a huge youth bulge, generating 15-20% of global growth.. We need to start punching in our weight class. Cent-com ho, Dollar-com ho.. If your pet kills Indians, we will shoot your pet. Cope.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 27 Oct 2023 07:51

Qatar has a lot of support from US. Qatar's action could also have american/chinese nod - just to maybe pressure India in an int'l diplomatic situation and get India to know its place.

Otherwise oil blocade and all will cost India a dent in its peaceful rise story. So mostly we should be looking at a diplomatic situation but I think by going public Qatar has extinguished that option.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 27 Oct 2023 08:20

Unfortunately, other than complete capitulation in front of Quatar, India doesn't have too many options as of this moment.

Unless, India is prepared to withdraw and rehabilitate our diaspora ( Approximately 650 thousand people) out of Quatar.

Once, we are able to do so.

Multiple options will open up.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 27 Oct 2023 08:29

YashG wrote: ↑27 Oct 2023 07:51 Qatar has a lot of support from US. Qatar's action could also have american/chinese nod - just to maybe pressure India in an int'l diplomatic situation and get India to know its place.

Otherwise oil blocade and all will cost India a dent in its peaceful rise story. So mostly we should be looking at a diplomatic situation but I think by going public Qatar has extinguished that option.

Our rise can not be peaceful if the world around us is going to war. If some actors in the world think, the solution to deal with India is to kill Indians every now and then, and to promote domestic dissension within India, they need to be stopped.

Qatar, with its garbage Al Jazeera info op, has been one of the major instigators of unrest within India. Must be dealt with.

If we cant do it, then non state actors. If not non state actors, then proxies and insurgents in the area. The world needs to realize, that fire burns. And they also bleed.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 27 Oct 2023 08:33

Pratyush wrote: ↑27 Oct 2023 08:20 Unfortunately, other than complete capitulation in front of Quatar, India doesn't have too many options as of this moment.

Unless, India is prepared to withdraw and rehabilitate our diaspora ( Approximately 650 thousand people) out of Quatar.

Once, we are able to do so.

Multiple options will open up.

Its a mistake to think that a commercial purchase of services or goods is a favor done to India. Can Qatar find as good a work force, at as great a price as Indians from some other country? Let them go ahead and do so then! Qataris are not employing Indians out of the goodness of their heart. But because they are unable to do the work needed in their own country and because Indians are a peaceful and skilled work force. If they fire all the Indians, they will lose as much as India, if not more.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 27 Oct 2023 08:49

Within Quatar your diaspora is a hostage to the whims and fancies of the ruling family.

The nature of our people in that country is no such that they can be weaponised against the ruling family. Unlike Pakistan or even Bangladesh.

That by definition removes several options.

Second, the energy resources of the state makes it harder for India to excercise, commercial options against this state. Because, when India stops buying. Others will step in.

Third, a removal by force of the ruling family is a possibility. But the replacement will have to be someone who's acceptable to you rest of the Arab world. So that India doesn't make an enemy out of potential allies in the region. ( you may say that being Muslim's, they are all anti India to begin with. But the world is different shades of grey. Not black and white.)

That in turn increases the numbers of cook's in the kitchen. Thereby , further reducing Indian options in the country.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 27 Oct 2023 08:49

India has a population of 1 billion plus. 650k does not even register. Qataris are playing with fire and jumping on US support plank. Time to work closely with Saudis and teach a lesson to this Jihad factory.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 27 Oct 2023 09:24

This jihad factory made the Saudi's bend the knee. Less than a year ago.

Right now, the Saudi's don't have any appetite for a fight with Quatar.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 27 Oct 2023 09:41

The # of Indians living in Canada is 3X that of Indians in Qatar. They send same/more money home as remittances than what the diaspora in Qatar does. If we can show these White-Pakis their place (them being even more closer to the Anglo world than Qataris), then we can do the same to Qatar as well.

But we have energy dependence on Qatar in a way we are not dependent on Canada. Yet, it must be made clear to everyone that taking Indian lives is a redline

If you recall the Nupur Sharma episode, Modi sarkar threw her under the bus shamefully, because Qatar issued a kadi-ninda. There were also several incidents of our diaspora working in slave-like conditions in Qatar & we didn't do much about it either

Given the above, I am keeping my hopes tempered. I think there will be a huge amount of carrot & stick backroom diplomacy and like Khulbhushan Jadhav, we won't let our people die. However, I seriously doubt that we will exercise any hard options unless they carry out the execution. This has the markings of a multi-year stalemate

We have a few sticks besides invading Qatar or blockading their sea-lanes, which will be a declaration of war. Banning Al Jazeera in India would be a good start (something we ought to do anyway). If we have *assets*, we can even consider extraction of these 8 people, though there will likely be bloodshed in the process. This is of course, much harder, considering that we have not done it for Khulbhushan Yadav, though we have been able to bump off people at will in Pakiland