Agni-5 is not MAD
Good insights. He is ex DRDO.
Thanks for this piece, Chacko. Despite all the pressures to run such venture, it is pleasure to hear technically sound information in correct perspective. Hope this trend continues. Normally on such pieces we would have heard from 'Pro-fool mythwai' from other media.
What I'm going to share is nothing new and I repeated already several times in threads like Deterrence thread in Strats forum.
This NFU or MAD doctrines are peace time
doctrines. I underline Peace-time becoz when the actual N war drums start to beat, the modalities and procedures that will lead to and followed in such N War is SAME whether you are having NFU doctrine or anyother doctrine.
I can throw an analogy to understand the concept without technical jargon, in more colloquial way.
N Deterrence is like declaring and demonstrating to your peer or anyone that if you hit/hurt my lady I will hurt your lady.
MAD concept is that after such declaration, it requires you to openly carry weapon of your choice to wherever you go. Even in slight pretension, you unsheathe and brandish your weapon at your perceived opponent.
NFU is like acting cool after such declaration as if nothing happened. In some sense, it is like Rajinikanth with all the coolness and confidence in handling his opponent even in extreme situation as exhibited in those movies.
Coming to India, Indian statement on such matters is like, I won't cause trouble to you or your lady/family; I won't be the initiator, but if you hurt my lady I bring unacceptable
damage to your family/lady.
What is left unsaid is, action from India will be initiated after anyone hurts the lady or even if someone thought of hurting the lady. That is,
1. whether India will react after the completion of the action from his opponent (ie, hiting the lady), or
2. India can react before completion of the action or even before initiation of the action from his opponent?
Guys, if you are in such position, what you will do?
Will you wait and see your lady gettting hurt before thinking about your response to your action, or
Will you start acting before your lady gets hurt?
I guess, you all agree, commonsense dictates the second option.
Same way, in such N war situation, India can initiate her action before her citizens got hurt from her opponent. Prudence dictates that She should act in such way.
Ok, now, in such situation, what actions from India is possible? She can give CounterForce response or CounterValue.
To think in terms of analogy, when you come to know that your opponent is going to hit your lady and started moving his hand and unsheathed his weapon, what actions are possible from you?
You can either, in the name of Deterrence which you declared, prepare yourself to hit your opponent's lady (CounterValue) or you first protect your lady by striking the arm/weapon before it tries to hit your lady (CounterForce). Later you can think about punishing your opponent by CounterValue too.
I think, one can't deny the importance of CounterForce. Whether NFU or MAD, these doctrines doesn't restrict one to adopt whatever response he can provide.
There is a symbolism that NFU == CounterValue becoz, NFU is more suitable for budding N powers. Becoz they are budding N power they can't have the sophistication of having CounterForce and large N weapons catering to both CounterForce and CounterValue like grownup Superpowers . So there is a notion that NFU means CounterValue. It doesn't mean that when the option is available they can't go for CounterForce.
India in 80's is not such power but today we have the potential and afford to be such power.
You may ask why not ABM can be used for striking the arm/weapon that is trying to hit your lady. ABM is for defence. Unless you combine offense with defence, your defence is not going to be effective. It is like India's defensive response to Pak sponsored terrorism without attacking the safe heavens of those terrorists. At some point of time, some terrorists can sneak past your defence. In N war too, without active offence, opponent can overwhelm your pure defense mechanism.
PS: There is one more scenario which critically emphasize the importance of CounterForce but later.