Bharat Rakshak

Bharat Karnad of the Council for Policy Research: India's foremost nuclear strategic and security affairs expert with strongly nationalist views, will be the guest speaker at our US Northeast BRF Jirga this year.

Dr. Karnad has espoused very strong views on the need for Indian strategic deterrence in its military, economic and scientific aspects. He has honoured us by offering to provide his insights on India's strategic security at our annual BRF meet. He will also engage in discussions and a question-answer session with us.

Here are some of his papers and articles:

http://www.cprindia.org/users/bharat-karnad
http://www.cprindia.org/user/5/posts


We expect this to be a deeply informative and interesting event, where we BRF-ites will have the opportunity to share our views with this expert on a one-on-one basis. We hope you will be able to join us. If you're interested, please read below and register at the link provided.

The cost is $20 for pre-registry ($25 for registration on the day of the event) and includes lunch and (soft) drinks.


The meet is at Princeton, NJ on Saturday, November 13th 2011 from 12:00 - 4:00 PM.
Please register by clicking at the following link.

Click Here to Register for 4th Annual Mid Atlantic - North East Jirga

Please fill in your information to confirm that you would be joining. Once your registration is received, the address will be sent to you. All Indians are welcome. We will be catering Vegetarian food. The expense would be $20 for pre registration and $25 for on the spot. Dr Bharat Karnad would be joining us for the Jirga. Here is some information about him. http://casi.ssc.upenn.edu/visiting/karnad . Please feel free to ask him a question if you like to. Shortlisted questions will be forwarded to him.


Admins, please if you don't mind, sticky this thread on the mil forum as well.

Please record his talk upload it on YouTube for the rest of us. Stream the event too, if possible

Also, perhaps you could set up a video-conferencing rig for those who may like to interact with him but unable to make it to the venue.

Registered.

Please suggest how we can do the video streaming. I will look into it.

A webcam and an account at justin.tv should be enough to live stream it. That and of course posting the url here

Hiten: This should be possible with a conference facility that we are planning to use. Please send me an email at "t dot shaurya at google" and I will include you in the list of people, interested in joining the conference over tele/video conference.

Thanks.

Those who can't make it in person but would like to attend the Tele / Video Conference, please register at the link below. We will email you the contact details for the Jirga.

Click Here to Register for 4th Annual Mid Atlantic - North East Jirga

Lucky devils. I expect the entire speech to be uploaded on the internet.

Sirjee i tried to register but didnt get the link to pay yet on email

Will send out the payment links by Monday EoD.

Please upload the his speech and others as well on internet. I already feel sorry to miss it...

record the speach.

i'd be interested in hearing it.

What is the topic/agenda?

Kanson Ji: It will be around Indian defense and security policy. Are you in the NE US area?

Start sending in the updates!

I am posting the recordings of the meeting with Shri Bharat Karnad here itself. Comments are welcome. Thanks.

If someone has a better and more fuller recording, please post here. Thanks.

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7
Part 8
Part 9
Part 10

A BIG THANK YOU to prof. Karnad and all the attendees for making this the best meet yet!
we can't thank prof. saab enough for providing us the right perspective.
Great job every one; you make BRF proud.

Anybody got video??

This has been one of the most enlightening sessions on Indian National Security. Thanks to Neeraj, Prashant, and Shaurya for helping to make this jirga, as Archan pointed out, the best one yet!

Now now do we have a transcript of Dr. Karnad's talk/presentation ?

ShauryaT, Thanks a lot. Couldnt call in. The audio files are great substitute.

Negi download the files on to your phone and listen. Its good stuff and one cant get such insight.

Thank you, BR, for organising this and thank you so much, Shaurya ji, for sharing the audio.

Interesting perspective on dealing with Pakistan and China and our deterrent. 20 kt onlee....

workin on it..

Could someone post a summary?

Great work Shaurya and other Jis. In one of the first audios BK ji says Antony said something to the naval commander conference, the audio ended there, what did Antony say at the naval commander conference? BK ji is somewhat soft towards the pakis while asking us to realise our organic strength from the vedas, didnt really understand why.

Also regarding the testing of the bigger device the audio ended midway

I've tried to be factual and not added my reactions. This is definitely an incomplete list - I've compiled this from my recollection and this is not a transcript. My apologies if by poor recollection I have misrepresented BK.

On Pakistan

• An integral and sustainable Pakistan is in Indian interests. They keep the Islamic fundamentalist exports from the Arab world at bay, a buffer so to speak.
• Only 70% of Pakistani nuclear warheads have been mapped by the US, Israel and India. The remainder, according to Pakistan, will never be found. BK agrees. The notion of removing Pakistan's nuclear capability by force is not tenable.
• Their nuclear security is arguably better than India's.
• Without compromising border security, India should unilaterally let the Pakistani Army breathe easy by consolidating Indian Army resources on our side into [far] fewer units, not necessarily because these resources are needed elsewhere but because the Pakistani government has a good chance of gaining real control if the threat perceived by the Pakistani Army can be nullified.
• Liquid-fuelled nuclear-armed Prithvi missiles ought to be withdrawn unilaterally not only for the gesture but for the liability.
• Although an audience member suggested that it might be in Pakistani Army's interests to sustain their military industrial complex by hyping the Indian threat, he thought there was still a good chance of a viable peace between the two countries if India would relax. The ground for such on the Pakistani side is fertile. India, being the onerous threat, must make the first move.
• While their Navy might not win them plaudits, their air force is a professional unit by international standards.
• Their economy doesn't hold a candle to India's. That they have managed to keep themselves centre-stage in the Indian threat matrix despite this reflects immaturity on the Indian side and win of sorts for Pakistan.
• GoI needs to find the gumption to show generosity to India's smaller neighbours, all of whom India has managed to alienate but must now strive to win back. India has the financial means to show such generosity today and has no reason to fear. If Pakistan's economy is in doldrums, India can and should help. The benefits will be asymmetric.
• Cold Start is untenable in practice. Logistics will not be able to keep up with the advance units. Fuel for the tanks at battle speed [30~35 kph] will run out quickly. Advantages from early victories will be limited by the need to wait for more fuel from the support units, which will take time to catch up.
• Non-disputed territory won as a result of Cold Start will have to be returned sooner or later anyway in accordance to international law.
• Limited air-strikes are plausible for punitive measure. Cold Start isn’t.
• No idea if India is in Balochistan but splitting the country into many pieces, even if possible, won’t help India rather it will only cement the image of India as enemy.

On Indian Nuclear Deterrence

• From an international point of view, Indian nuclear deterrence is limited to 20 kT.
• India’s choice for 125 kT warheads is not out of some deep strategic thought but more an imitation of American norms.
• Thermonuclear warheads have been deployed but don’t yield any deterrence value
• India has admirably precise missiles and manoeuvring warheads [MARV]
• Indian scientists should be permitted by GoI to test MIRV, a capability available but in need of testing and validation for 6 years.
• Multiple 20kT or 125 kT missiles don’t amount to 1 MT missile from a deterrence point of view.
• Chinese megaton deterrence will make GoI pause for thought. Indian 20 kT deterrence will not make the Chinese government pause for thought. China challenged the US after the bombing of their Belgrade embassy by the US when they scavenged parts of the downed F-117. They are ready for war and willing to sacrifice population if that is what it takes. So 20 kT isn’t going to deter them.
• India has 11 device designs, for various purposes and yields, on the shelf waiting to be tested. These designs are creative and admirable. There is a clear need to test, not only for feedback to aid the designers, but to establish a greater deterrence.
• BK doesn’t see India testing further as long as R Chidambaram [RC] associated with the GoI.
• RC might be one of the best crystallographers in the world but that doesn’t mean he or any nuclear scientist for that matter understands strategy, deterrence, national policy, etc.
• Not only should we test but we shouldn’t even call a moratorium once we do.
• Ashley Tellis agreed with BK [on an occasion] that India might have a need to test. US reaction might not be vehement.

On China

• Hypersonic Brahmos will give any enemy food for thought. China is no exception.
• Hypersonic Brahmos at Nha Trang might give them sleepless nights.
• PLA might have a superior top-end but the bulk of their strength is not superior to Indian Army.
• PLA will not be able to overrun us like 1962.
• Try as they might, they will not get Tawang.
• India’s Su-30 MKI is second only to the F-22 Raptor. IAF will not be overpowered by PLAAF.
• BVR air-to-air missiles are effectively useless. BK has personally advised GoI in the past to strengthen in other ways, not BVR.
• The notion of F-35 for IAF is only amusing and not going to happen; “Hangar Queen”
• China believes, as senior officials have stated to BK, that regardless of India having the capability to pose a threat [or not], GoI neither has the political will to threaten nor the political will to deliver on the threat if challenged. This gives them confidence.
• Support of Tibetan cause by GoI has been inconstant
• Tibetan fighters are trained and willing. They only need the support. There is no such support from GoI.

On Indian Strategy

• Many opportunies for accumulating strategic assets in Maldives and Vietnam have been ignored by GoI in the past
• Chinese oil routes would already have been policed by now had these opportunities been availed.
• Vietnam is admirable for their steadfast resistance against several superior enemies and they prevailed each time. Vietnam has a 1000 year enmity with China. India should arm Vietnam
• India should accept the Vietnam’s offer to establish an Indian naval presence in their country near Nha Trang.
• Nha Trang will provide near line of sight to Hainan. China’s “James Bondian” submarine base there will be rendered less effective if India monitors from Nha Trang
• India should provide Vietnam with Hypersonic Brahmos when it is ready. This will counter the Chinese southern fleet. It could even pose a direct threat to Hainan island.
• India should not shy away from maintaining strategies with China as the likely aggressor instead of Pakistan
• Maintaining border positions 100 miles from the border with China is conceding 100 miles of Indian territory by default
• Border infrastructure is long overdue and finally getting some attention

Sorry if I am missing something but this is patent bakwas. For 60 odd years TSP has done little else but export fundamentalists to India, Arab world fundamentalists notwithstanding! When was the last terrorist who did his bit in India from an Arab country? Tragic that someone of his stature can come up with this. What do they expect India to do? Give "aid" to Pak ala US so as to "stabilize" it? It should be obvious to any twinkie that the first thing TSP would do with that sort of stuff is return it with proper "Interest".

And WTF is "integral" and "sustainable" TSP?


Fair enough, whether true or false, best to assume the worst.


Did he give any reasons?


In one stroke this bloke has assumed that TSP army is different from govt. There is nothing credible available to support this imvho. Just a facade.


I just hope he had a proper substitute for the same - don't tell us he thought it would be better to be completely nude.


For its entire life time, TSP has been naught but a tinpot dictatorship, this whole idea of delinking GOP from Army is meaningless.


Good for them.


What does he suggest India do? Not pay attention when the next bum goes off? TSP remains centrestage inspite of India's economic lead thanks to its imperative need to do India some damage.



Amazing!!! Screw us once, screw us twice, but since we are India, screw us always. The more we are screwed the more we will give you "asymmetric" aid, we love being screwed.



Interesting thoughts - for once.


Depends upon a Lot of factors. Not so easy/obvious.


Probably.

No idea if India is in Balochistan but splitting the country into many pieces, even if possible, won’t help India rather it will only cement the image of India as enemy.

His thoughts on China and nuke deterrence merit more analysis.

JMT of course. Thanks Pratik for your hardwork in putting up that summary.

Many thanks Pratik Das. Much obliged. All in all a far less negative talk than the one he gave at IISc.

I found his comments on Pakistan to be remarkable, to say the least. It reminded me of B. Raman's blog entry from 29/8/2011 wherein he too was singing the song of peace. Something must be going on - perhaps the public figures like BK and BR are setting the scene for an announcement? Perhaps that's what MMS is up to now with Gilani? Perhaps that's why Hina Rabbani Khar is saying that the Pak-India trust deficit is suddenly zero?

Of course, I'm guessing but the coincidence is remarkable. Need to see how things pan out in the next few months.

Thank you, Shiv ji. I must say that I purposely left out his commentary on the steady inclusion of pacifism in Hinduism and the associated negative impacts. I am a Hindu myself but I thought including those comments in this summary would detract from the primary message vis-a-vis Pakistan, China and nuclear deterrence, of which there is plenty to talk about as it is. I'd recommend interested BRFites listen to the audio.

Shiv ji, I'd missed out a section on Indian Strategy, which I've now added.

Kashmir sellout may be in the works.....At this rate the future doesn't bode well for the Indian Union.

Anupji
Don't think that's gonna happenbecauseIf we give away even one square foot of land/territory in Kashmir to anyone then there will be an all out rebellion in the army and other forces.
Plus the govt should be really stoneheaded to even think along those lines as they know its an instant career killer for them.

Hey you never know with a bought out media and supporting politicians who help to create a majority in Parliament. And why will the armed forces rebel? Have they ever done so at any time after 1947?

Merlin,
Nope they haven't. But you as well as i know that if we lose its an identity blow to all of us, especially the forces who have lost a lot of good men trying to ensure the safety of kashmir. So the minute this new comes out, there will be an open rebellion. I bet even the chiefs will support it as its tantamount to pi$$ing on all their sacrifices and losses.
JMO.
And. let me ask you if would take it lying down if the Govt goes ahead and announces this kind of news??? Or for that matter would any member of BRF??

Maybe because he liked us better than the folks at IISc

I think, the setting was informal and he knew that he was amongst a well informed audience so no need to explain background et al, he could drive right in.

Also, do think, the questions were better than at the IISc

Yes folks should listen to the audio, but there was a larger point there that at a conceptual level India is following a Gandhian defined image of Hinduism, which is far from the truth of what Hinduism or Hindu history is about. I thought, it was one of the best parts of the BK talk (as the other parts of this talk are fairly well known to me), I have not heard him speak on this before. It tells you about the key thoughts and make up the person's outlook.

Archan Ji: When you have time, please do upload your recordings. Apologies folks for the mess up, my recording line disconnected after every 15 minutes and hence bits of information are missing.

Nevertheless, thank you ShauryaT for all the efforts. I just started listening.

Yeah... you were too quick to upload yours! I have a ~92mb file which is his entire talk 1:45min. I didn't record the question-answer session that happened along with lunch. I think the voices are clearer in this recording.
link to download Dr. Bharat Karnad's talk
I will try to post the video soon. I'm not an expert in handling these large .MTS 1080p files!

Cain Marko, thank you for your comments! I can't say I'm convinced that we're at a stage where we can unilaterally withdraw and consolidate. After all, Pakistan [ISI] seems to champion the unconventional attack and every response of ours is conventional. The onus is on them to build some trust with us. India has not responded to a number of unconventional attacks. What more could they hope for, if they were being honest with themselves?

If a conventional Indian response or even a punitive limited air-strike triggers an escalation then we would need to be prepared, which is presumably what current Indian Army dimensions on the western front are for.