Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

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Cosmo_R
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Cosmo_R »

NRao wrote:
I do not see the PAK-FA as a good "5th Gen" plane. But, do consider it to be better than the MKI. Which is why I would prefer to reduce the MKI numbers and plunk those funds into a better MKI.

I would make building a super network a priority, followed equally by investing in engineS and a 5.5+ Gen plane.

India, IMVVVVHO, should skip the "5th gen" tech craze. And, by not investing in the MMRCA + FGFA she stands a good chance to do so.
+1

An aphorism for consideration: Quantity is quality for pilots facing smaller numbers. Quality is quantity for pilot facing many enemies.

We seriously need to rethink the MMRCA. Not because the Rafale is not a good a/c but because it will rob us of the resources we actually need more immediately.
brar_w
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

NRao wrote:
brar_w wrote:PAK FA MKI @ 60 million sounds rather optimistic, especially for a production run of a 100. Stealth comes at a cost and complexity, it would be tough to credit lower cost of construction of legacy soviet era stuff to modern stealth jet with 2 rather large supercruising engines.
I pulled that number out of the air based on $50 mil for the PAK-FA and $100 for the FGFA. Driving a hard bargain ..................

I do not see the PAK-FA as a good "5th Gen" plane. But, do consider it to be better than the MKI. Which is why I would prefer to reduce the MKI numbers and plunk those funds into a better MKI.

I would make building a super network a priority, followed equally by investing in engineS and a 5.5+ Gen plane.

India, IMVVVVHO, should skip the "5th gen" tech craze. And, by not investing in the MMRCA + FGFA she stands a good chance to do so.
We would need to wait quite a bit even to get the basic T-50 cost with a full missions system and propulsion set up. What we have now are a few prototypes flying and there is a long road to getting each mission system ready, getting the airframe and the components produced at an industrial pace/setup and then the big work begins on integrating the mission system with the fighter and doing a full mission system and weapons testing. Side by side they would be developing the 5th gen engine. Until we have a few (if not a dozen or so) production line T-50's with full set of sensors and avionics and with the new 5th gen engines, HMS's etc we cannot nail down the industrial cost to produce or operate the T-50 (look at the JSF, with over a 100 aircraft flying, the cost of operation is still not nailed down). Once the cost of the T-50 is "understood" we would then have to see the cost of incorporating the changes we have asked for in the production and testing process..Only then would we know the cost of the FGFA coming from a russian production line. Add to that a learning curve associated with our own production line, and the fact that @ 100 the build is not all that huge, and we'd be looking at quite a high price for a 5th gen capability. 5th gen is a complex set of capabilities that are not cheap. Because Soviet era 4th gen was cheap to produce it does not mean that 5th gen would be as well (for the russians as well as for us). By definition 5th gen demands stealth, production tolerances, lower appetite for production inefficiencies and rigorous testing of the airframe (as well as sub systems) for RCS management. Propulsion is also not likely to be cheap coming in from a brand new engine (post SU) that has supercruising requirements. If the russians actually thought they could produce the T-50 with all its requirements for 50 million a fighter, I'm quite sure they would not have been advocating a strategy for their air force modernization that involves quite a lot of 4.5th gen fighter development and acquisition.
Not that I know for sure given that all this info is pretty much all hush hush, heck we dont accurately the RCS numbers of any of the frontline aircraft and only have approximate numbers to rely on but I do think that the Pak-Fa's stealth skin is a simple affair relative to the complexity of the f-22. The f-22 is a nightmare in terms of maintenance and is a hangar ducati whilst given Ruskie modes of construction logic the Pak-Fa will be a runway luna.
The F-22 was a product of the 80's, that its capabilities are still pretty much unchallenged in most areas speaks volumes of its designs. Just as we have PAKFA prototypes flying today, the first two raptor prototype (YF22 Pav 1 and Pav 2) flew with prototype F-119 and F-120 engines and a working weapons bay some 24 years ago. The first flight of an F-22 with full mission systems, sensors, data links and production representative 5th gen engine was some 17 years ago. At that time the "boutique" stealth was considered a valid trade off (higher maintenance costs and downtime) as the goal was to field 600-700 Raptors to bolster the F-15's in europe to counter the huge Flanker and interceptor fleets the Soviets had planned. The F-22 was the only option since most of the other NATO members lacked the capability to develop such a fighter. The F-22 was a 5th gen project in a time-frame when everyone else was looking at building 4th gen or developing 4.5 gen fighters. Even if the Russians take a more "practical" approach to the T-50, stealth still requires a far more refined production process than your legacy soviet era flankers. There is no way around it. Not only does this apply to the airframe and other stealth critical features but also to the avionics, which should be quite a bit more complex and complicated compared to the flanker family.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00uZCBzbL-o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw9xqhe_d8Q
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by SaiK »

satya wrote:Its a done deal . But expect it to be more pro-desh than one 'agreed' upon by UPA.
nothing is a done deal till induction.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Yogi_G »

Lest I be taken as being a 60 million $ or any such figure, any such discussion will be a "what you think vs what I think" which will eventually be hell-fired by the bradmins. Anything beyond a 60-80 million $ figure will be possible only if the MMRCA deal gets cancelled and we decide to go in for a pure PAK-FA fielding.

As for practicality, I dont think the Ruskie fighters will need mascara and lipstick applied to them for hours before and after flights and stay away from rain lest the facial foundation wash off. This is PRACTICAL and a lesson most other nations observing the raptor have watched and learnt. All that hangar maintenance of the queen ADDS to the cost of the plane. That needs to be considered as well as against just the initial procurement. The pak-fa wont have this.
Sumeet
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Sumeet »

Why are we discussing PAK-FA, F-35 here ? We already have a thread for that.
brar_w
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

Yogi_G wrote:Lest I be taken as being a 60 million $ or any such figure, any such discussion will be a "what you think vs what I think" which will eventually be hell-fired by the bradmins. Anything beyond a 60-80 million $ figure will be possible only if the MMRCA deal gets cancelled and we decide to go in for a pure PAK-FA fielding.

As for practicality, I dont think the Ruskie fighters will need mascara and lipstick applied to them for hours before and after flights and stay away from rain lest the facial foundation wash off. This is PRACTICAL and a lesson most other nations observing the raptor have watched and learnt. All that hangar maintenance of the queen ADDS to the cost of the plane. That needs to be considered as well as against just the initial procurement. The pak-fa wont have this.
As mentioned earlier, those were based on some damn stringent stealth requirements for a cold war world. Not only were requirements tough but the timelines were extremely challenging. The original ATF plan wanted IOC by 2000, and to have close to 750 fighters by 2012 or so. The F-22 need not have its VLO status kept up to those stringent levels if the tacticians so desire. VLO degradation need not be patched up as frequently as was required in the ATF standards. It all depends on resource availability and time at hand.

Now coming to "maintenance" challenges, those do not exist any more for Lockheed and co. The F-35 for example has elevated VLO technology to a level where you can maintain it on the field and on the go. The F-35 for example has its signature assessment on the tough and harsh saltwater environment of the sea and on the dusty forward deployments of the marine core. The breakthrough came with fiber mat and newer curing processes. The F-35's prototype (X-35) flew a decade or so earlier to the T-50, that should be a better benchmark to the T-50 as far as stealth vs maintenance is concerned, given that the F-22 sacrificed lower down times for VLO stealth in a design that flew its first prototype nearly 2 decades earlier than the first PAK FA prototype.

See here

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 0#p1655680

Lets take the discussion over to relevant threads if appropriate..
vishvak
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by vishvak »

"ntime) as the goal was to field 600-700 Raptors to bolster the F-15's in europe to counter the huge Flanker and interceptor fleets the Soviets had planned. The F-22 was the only option since most of the other NATO members lacked the capability to develop such a fighter."

We have different situations & goals etc.; our approach is different too, and it is not be surprising that our own strategic programs are different and future programs will make different planes.
brar_w
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

We have different situations & goals etc.; our approach is different too, and it is not be surprising that our own strategic programs are different and future programs will make different planes
I was referring to the PAKFA and not any other goals we may have vis-a-vis the LCA progression and or the AMCA. The PAKFA is mostly a russian program, designed first and foremost for them, by them. My point was regarding the unique capability of 5th gen fighters namely stealth, advanced propulsion, and highly integrated avionics. These three (among others) are not easy to produce economically especially when pegged with 4th gen or 4.5 gen airframes which lack many if not most of these features. Production tolerances, attention to production detail, constant evaluation and RCS measurements parameters at every stage of construction (from basic mating, to the final paint and coating applications) are unique to stealthy airframes and something that have proven quite costly if the history of the technology is any indication. Even if the Russians have watered down much of this capability in favour of simplicity and lower cost (engine housings definitely seem to suggest that in the early prototypes among other things ) it is still a significant enhancement over 4th and 4.5th gen fighters. The entire point of bringing in the F-22 was to rebut the earlier point about it requiring extensive maintenance for VLO preservation. My point was that this was an acceptable trade-off in the 90's when the IOC was to be no later than 2000. In today's stealth fighter (The f-35 for example) this is no longer a tradeoff the partner nations have made.
arthuro
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

the new Government must move decisively to boost our defence capabilities
[...]
Capabilities

Procurements to counter a threat are based on effects required and not on the nomenclature of the conflict to be prosecuted. Thus, if a local border war is envisaged, then it does not imply that aircraft with short ranges and limited armament capabilities would suffice. Kargil, a limited war, showed that it required a costly but a top end Mirage 2000 to deliver an expensive Laser Guided Bomb on Tiger Hill to effectively shorten the conflict; low-end cheaper aircraft in greater numbers would not have sufficed in this case.

If the Su-30s had been operationalised in a similar case scenario, then they too would have been employed to achieve the desired 'effect' and not held back due to the classification of the conflict as a localised limited 'border war.'
Deterrent Planning for war demands that the enemy be made aware of the pain that one can inflict.In India's case, it is the IAF that is the main deterrent for adversaries. Lowering its deterrent value by buying larger numbers of cheaper aircraft instead of potent and well evaluated systems is a recipe for disaster.

"But the Brazilians have bought the smaller and cheaper Gripen and rejected the Rafale," goes the refrain of the uninitiated. To them, the statement of the Brazilian defence minister to an IAF delegation needs recounting. "We are blessed to have no threats," he said, adding however that they still required an air force for policing duties.

So, comparing another nation's imperatives to influence one's own procurement plans is not only unprofessional but unacceptable. Cost, though important, cannot be the primary driving factor here. Threats are what drive the choice. There are no runners-up in war, and on coming out second best one can do precious little with the money left in the kitty following a cheap buy.

Now to the specifics of India's and not just the IAF's, MMRCA case. The nation's air force is down to 34 Squadrons and continues to deplete at an alarming rate. The first Squadron of the sub-optimal Light Combat Aircraft Tejas Mk1 will not get operationalised before 2016-17 due HAL's low production rate; the Mk2, which is what meets IAF's operational requirements, is still on HAL's drawing boards. The choice of an aircraft made by a professional air force should not be doubted due to the comments of armchair specialists and lobbyists.

Yes, if cost calculations of the short-listed bid were not correct – as some press articles claim then that is cheating and needs redressal. But this jaundiced viewing of professional evaluations belies the intangible called trust, an existential pre-requisite of the defence forces. The urgency of the MMRCA procurement must engage the attention of the new Government when it takes charge on Monday.
Full article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... z32RZyWusl
Last edited by arthuro on 23 May 2014 02:01, edited 1 time in total.
Cain Marko
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Cain Marko »

^ If the cost is prohibitive ($ 20 billion+ is my humble guess), get half the quantity, with options for 126 more. IOWs, exercise the option for the second purchase of 63 birds first. Possibly even directly sourced from France to reduce cost of infrastructure build up. Price around $ 10 billion or less.

This would address all the issues brought up by Bahadurji in the article above. Remaining $s can be invested in LCA, IFR systems, AEW etc. along with investment in AMCA. Of course, it remains that the MKI is something that can tackle most of the "high end" type requirements he is talking about.
arthuro
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

Just a nice pic of rafale during combat duties (CAS) in Mali :

Image
NRao
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

The choice of an aircraft made by a professional air force should not be doubted due to the comments of armchair specialists and lobbyists.
Perhaps a lobbyist is, but is there any arm chair specialist questioning the IAF's choice of this plane?

Two more concerns WRT that article:

* Cost: he mentions $15 billion. Is that right? Or is he trying to push the Rafale through using old data? It is supposed to be *more than* $20 billion - at last count
* Secondly: The IAF has the responsibility of selecting a plane and they did (and a great choice at that). But the Government has equal responsibility to cost it out. So, while we should not question the choice of teh plane, we should question the cost of it. That is fair.

And, the look of it is second only to the PAK-FA.
brar_w
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

Cain Marko wrote:^ If the cost is prohibitive ($ 20 billion+ is my humble guess), get half the quantity, with options for 126 more. IOWs, exercise the option for the second purchase of 63 birds first. Possibly even directly sourced from France to reduce cost of infrastructure build up. Price around $ 10 billion or less.

This would address all the issues brought up by Bahadurji in the article above. Remaining $s can be invested in LCA, IFR systems, AEW etc. along with investment in AMCA. Of course, it remains that the MKI is something that can tackle most of the "high end" type requirements he is talking about.
20 billion seems almost like extortion. That is rediculous price for 4.5 gen capability. As a comparison, had South Korea upped its F-35 purchase from 40 to 120 they would have paid roughly the same amount. This is before a potential discount for a 3x larger purchase and for a 5th gen fighter which is still in the testing phase and whose production is only at a low rate at the time the vendor was asked to guarantee cost for the sake of competition. If we are to eliminate the weapons and support package from the South korean deal the cost is even lower. Heck in 2013 the developer nations paid 9.2 billion $ for 71 aircraft that included 24 B and C versions that are more expensive than the air force version. Adjusted for the A version, 20 billion or so in 2012 and 2013 would have gotten partner nations around 180-190 F-35A's. I think that these costs warrant a re-look at the entire TOT issue and whether it really gets us all that much as compared to just pumping billions directly into our advanced technology programs. @ 20 billion, the entire concept seems broken to me. Perhaps its time to consider the deal from the angle of a much needed solution to maintain desired squadron levels and not some way to do both that and acquire some ground breaking technology/capability through TOT. Lets just buy it one squadron at a time from france and be done with it. Invest the saved money into the Mkii, AMCA and other advanced programs rather than paying western 5th gen price for 4.5 gen capability.

If not then we must look at other options if indeed the costs have grown to 20 billion. Upgrading M2K's, buying mig-29K's as an interim and pouring in a few hundred million dollars to considerably increase the LCA MKii production line post IOC if not just buy a couple of more squadrons of MKI's. Sure the Mig-29's would not be as capable as the Rafale, but then the point is that these are INTERIM aircraft, meant to maintain squadron levels for the interim as we drive up our LCA program to higher production numbers and put the AMCA in hyper mode. That point seems to be lost sometimes in the media
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Eric Leiderman »

Whats the sense of a 5th gen plane, when we may not be able to use it against Munna, and only against Cheen.
With a little more green stuff, we can ensure that we use our assets when/where we want to.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

Eric Leiderman wrote:Whats the sense of a 5th gen plane, when we may not be able to use it against Munna, and only against Cheen.
With a little more green stuff, we can ensure that we use our assets when/where we want to.
Who's advocating a 5th gen plane? All I am saying is that we are paying 5th gen price (comparables to what nations like South Korea, US, UK, Italy, Turkey are paying for F-35's) for a 4.5 gen aircraft that will be delivered to us in 5th gen timelines (2016-2018 is a timeframe when others will be getting deliveries of 5th gen fighters). I see this cost as a total waste and something that should seriously have us thinking about the benefits of all this TOT vs directly pouring in billions into our advanced technology efforts and aircraft programs. Buy half the rafale's planned directly from France. Save the money and invest it into our own advanced technology programs. Boost LCA MKii production schedule and make up the 60 or so aircrafts through a faster acquisition of MKii's and more MKI's or mig-29K's.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Manish_Sharma »

brar_w wrote: I see this cost as a total waste and something that should seriously have us thinking about the benefits of all this TOT vs directly pouring in billions into our advanced technology efforts and aircraft programs. Buy half the rafale's planned directly from France.
I think the idea is to get tech for next gen composites used in Rafale which neither russian nor Bharat has tech for:

http://www.strategypage.com/militaryfor ... ofcomments
Rafale has excellent payload for its small size. Officially Rafale C can carry a incredible 20900 pounds of payload despite the fact that it is slightly smaller than Typhoon which can carry only 16500 pounds.

The payload of Rafale C is also officially MORE than F-18EF ( F-18EF is 42% larger than rafale C, but F-18ef carries only 17700 pound officially).

And this is not all. When Rafale get its uprated M88-3 engine and when the new 3000 liter (792.6gals) center line external fuel tank is being qualified for use, rafale external payload weight will further increase to almost 23000 pound !!! Thats almost the same as the 24000 pounds achieve by the 50-65% larger F-15E.

Rafale C MTOW will soon be increase to 60,000 pounds. Rafale C is about 20680 pound when empty. Its MTOW to empty weight ratio is 2.9 times !!

F-15E MTOW to empty ratio is 2.56 or less. F-15E probably rank second.

No other airplane is close or even close. eurofighter Typhoon MTWO to empty weight is only 2.14 !

B-2 bomber may have highere MTOW to empty weight ratio. But B-2 is a subsonic load carrying bomber. For fighter plane comparison Rafale C MTOW to empty weight ratio is HIGHEST among all supersonic fighre aircraft.
Once the next gen french composite tech and the tooling machines arrive later on they can be used to produce lighter stronger LCAs, AMCAs and even used in Nirbhay cruise missile to make the lighter smaller.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

Why not just buy the tech as is? And the machines etc. Why do we have to splurge 20 billion and work out complex TOT arrangements to get the same. The french would be even happier to have their production lines getting a boost instead of having to maintain their production on their own, we would get the aircraft faster and at a much lower cost. The MRCA from the services perspective is to get fighters and get them fast so as to regain some of the lost squadron strength. The process of going about is is anything but FAST or affordable. If one thinks we can become a premium 5 or 6th gen fighter maker through our investments in TOT over the rafale than one is living in a fantasy world. We will only become better if we invest in our own capabilities. Direct investment rather than indirect investment will go longer. And if foreign technology, machinery and expertise is to be acquired then we should openly look to get the best we can and not try to squeeze it from a fighter program. Let our private sector and HAL go out and look for the best tier 2 and 3 companies to acquire. Let the MOD bankroll these companies and aid them in strategic acquisitions. Lets look to buy stakes into some defense companies in europe or elsewhere. Lets enter into JV's with the Japanese and other asian friends etc.
Manish_Sharma
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Manish_Sharma »

^ I didn't know those advanced composites, tooling machines would be up for sale.

I also wanted to bring to your notice this great thread much before you arrived, see if you can go through these posts and give your view:

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 7#p1282319
brar_w
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by brar_w »

There are ways to Steal technology and there are ways to legitimately acquire it. The chinese have shown how to do the former, with them ripping off high end russian military stuff quite openly and concentrating their cyber efforts on the US. I am sure they took full advantage of the collapse of the SU and brought over a ton of expertise covertly. We on the other hand are a responsible democracy and therefore must follow a systematic and responsible path to getting tech and expertise. Let the MOD create a consortium that deals with acquisition of companies around the world. We have the money, and we have strong relations with many developed countries around the world. We can probably pick up some decent t2 and 3 companies, and look at stakes in tier one companies. I am all for a vibrant private defense industry one that does not contain the past baggage of our largely government run MIC. Let them work out arrangements for smooth transfer of technology between their foreign partners and lets keep the services demand for kit distinct. The MRCA was born out of a need to get fighters, and get them fast. That aspect of the program should be kept in the forefront. If indeed the cost and complexity of the entire TOT arrangement has risen to such astronomical levels, its best to separate the fighter acquisition phase from the "technology-acquisition" phase. Lets not limit ourselves to tech acquisition from dassault. Let them offer an offset deal and lets buy the rafale from them from their proven production lines and hand over the jet to the air force in a fast and affordable manner. If western technology needs to be acquired to inject capability to our own defense industry, then a dedicated effort needs to be initiated for the same. That effort should not compete with the service's time critical need for squadron numbers. Europe is in a bad shape at the moment. Defense budgets have shrunk and a lot of the T2 and 3 supplier base is eroding. Couple that with the new Russian posture and the fear in many european circles of it and you have a perfect situation that is ripe for some strategic acquisitions or stakes in companies as europe looks to offload some of its responsibilities (of maintaining a MIC) to others. Seeing this through is a tough task and we need a shewed intellect similar to a Brajesh Mishra etc.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2014 ... rine-Maker
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-2 ... ustry.html

Thanks for the link, will go through the thread.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Yogi_G »

Not sure if I recollect correctly but was there a debate if the 42 squadrons number holds good even today given the proliferation of multi role fighters? A good part of the MMRCA justification rests on this number.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

Dhananjay wrote:^ I didn't know those advanced composites, tooling machines would be up for sale.
One, convenient as it might have been, you cannot use Rafale's tooling to build Tejas fighters.

Two, the technology concerned is very much available on the open market - EADS, BAE, LM, Boeing, Saab are all building aircraft with advanced composites, not to mention HAL's in-house tech isn't shabby either.

Three, the Rafale's production line won't be up and running until the end of the decade. It cannot translate into any gains in the LCA program; the Mk2 production would have begun before any technology can be assimilated (if it can even be assimilated).
Last edited by Viv S on 23 May 2014 11:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

Cain Marko wrote:^ If the cost is prohibitive ($ 20 billion+ is my humble guess), get half the quantity, with options for 126 more. IOWs, exercise the option for the second purchase of 63 birds first. Possibly even directly sourced from France to reduce cost of infrastructure build up. Price around $ 10 billion or less.
If we're talking about reduced numbers of aircraft acquired in a flyaway state then the question is why limit yourself to the Rafale? As far as falling squadron strength is concerned, that can be bolstered with stop-gap buys like second hand Mirages & MiGs, scaling up Tejas production and acquiring a larger number of force multipliers (more ERJ-145 AEW&Cs for starters).
This would address all the issues brought up by Bahadurji in the article above. Remaining $s can be invested in LCA, IFR systems, AEW etc. along with investment in AMCA. Of course, it remains that the MKI is something that can tackle most of the "high end" type requirements he is talking about.
We could invest all of that capital in LCAs, AEWs, AMCA etc and be better off for it.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Austin »

Cain Marko wrote:^ If the cost is prohibitive ($ 20 billion+ is my humble guess), get half the quantity, with options for 126 more. IOWs, exercise the option for the second purchase of 63 birds first. Possibly even directly sourced from France to reduce cost of infrastructure build up. Price around $ 10 billion or less.

This would address all the issues brought up by Bahadurji in the article above. Remaining $s can be invested in LCA, IFR systems, AEW etc. along with investment in AMCA. Of course, it remains that the MKI is something that can tackle most of the "high end" type requirements he is talking about.
Cost is a variable thing and it depends what India wants , if we want say 90 % TOT of aircraft and engine and Lic production and 1 and 2nd line of maintenance facility along with training , logistics chain etc the cost will be high

On the contrary if we need limited TOT like source code and ability to integrate it on our own all weapons , specific TOT on Radar or Engine Maintenance then cost will be lower.

Its in the realms of speculation what we have bought and what we are willing to pay and the delay in MMRCA due to political and economic reason does no good.

Having said that we need to put Rafale deal on high priority along with FGFA its absolutely Critical for Airforce to maintain the numbers and technology capability with the already dropping squadron number and technology obsolescence IAF is staring at. Hopefully the final deal is for 126 + 80 more to have a total fleet of 200 Rafale.

Just recently met some top guy associated with IAF in talks he mentioned that squad level was actually lower than what IAF/MOD is stating and the situation is critical when it comes to availability of aircraft at any point in time . I dont want to put the numbers I heard from him but it couple of squadron below what the number MOD puts up in public ...
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by merlin »

satya wrote:Baba , Gen. Suhag's appointment was cleared with him prior to being announced by GoI. He is not going to cancel the MRCA deal with France no matter what.
Source?

Arun Jaitley hastily clarified that he was not politicizing the appointment, so he was not in the loop?

Rafale cannot be cancelled now if we want numbers of mature aircraft - cannot order more Su30MKIs (all eggs in the same basket), Tejas will take time to mature and for numbers to scale up, same for PAK-FA-MKI or whatever. Can definitely not buy American unless the Indian armed forces are retarded.

So what other options are there?
Austin
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Austin »

Good Opportunity to check the bird with operational squad of IAF

Rafale To Fly in Indo-French Joint Air Exercises
The French Rafale fighter aircraft, shortlisted by the Indian Air Force (IAF) for its $12 billion Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program, will engage with IAF aircraft in June 3 joint exercises over the Rajasthan desert.

The Indo-French air exercise, Garuda-5, will include four Rafale multirole fighter aircraft and one air refueler that will participate with IAF’s multirole Su-30MKI, MiG-27 and MiG-21 aircraft.

While the exercise is unlikely to test the performance of the Russian or the French aircraft, it will expose to IAF personnel the French aircraft’s capabilities in maneuvers, said an IAF official. The MMRCA deal, in which Rafale is the preferred aircraft, has been in the contract negotiations stage for more than a year and is awaiting finalization.

“Preference for the French Rafale during the exercise by IAF pilots and personnel will lead to voices from within the IAF for an early inking of the MMRCA contract,” said Nitin Mehta, a defense analyst here.

The Indian Defence Ministry also has shortlisted the purchase of six Airbus A330 air refueling tankers for the IAF at a cost of over $1 billion, but that deal also has yet to be signed.

The objective of the Indo-French exercise is to expose IAF pilots to French fighter tactics and the French pilots to Indian fighter tactics, in addition to exposing IAF crew to air-to-air refueling, said the IAF official. ■
Manish_Sharma
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Manish_Sharma »

Viv S wrote:
Dhananjay wrote:^ I didn't know those advanced composites, tooling machines would be up for sale.
One, convenient as it might have been, you cannot use Rafale's tooling to build Tejas fighters.
So what'll happen to the machinery once all the 189 Rafale's are built? It'll lie there gathering dust, or sold back to france? It'll all become useless?
--------------------------------------------------

Added later:



I think it was Maitya ji who had pointed out that composites made either by rus or Bharat are very primitive compared to Rafale.
Last edited by Manish_Sharma on 23 May 2014 17:13, edited 1 time in total.
member_20317
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_20317 »

merlin wrote:
satya wrote:Baba , Gen. Suhag's appointment was cleared with him prior to being announced by GoI. He is not going to cancel the MRCA deal with France no matter what.
Source?

Arun Jaitley hastily clarified that he was not politicizing the appointment, so he was not in the loop?

Rafale cannot be cancelled now if we want numbers of mature aircraft - cannot order more Su30MKIs (all eggs in the same basket), Tejas will take time to mature and for numbers to scale up, same for PAK-FA-MKI or whatever. Can definitely not buy American unless the Indian armed forces are retarded.

So what other options are there?
I missed the reportage, but why did Jaitley clarify on Army Chief's appointment vis-a-vis Rafale?

Re. numbers

HAL has made 222 MKIs and 194 are in service while total ordered were 272. The balance production run for the remaining numbers would I guess be over in next 5 years. HAL focus on Rafale would be over and above its MKI or LCA commitments. By that time LCA would have matured and get produced for another 5 years for the current order size. AMCA would at that time be test flying (hopefully). The FGFA would then be imported or in licence production, again a separate line.

So I guess there is still scope for another small order for MKIs. Considering the multiple uses that are getting mentioned, the need to maintain numbers for MKIs to actually be able to 'fire in anger', would in effect force the production run for another 7-8 years instead of the ~5 years being currently planned.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Cybaru »

Order another 42 Super-30 config and close the chapter! Sheesh, this is such a waste of money! We will be good. 314 * 8K (2512000 Kgs) of directed & precise payload is something that IAF never had access to before. That too at 1.5 to 2k radius.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Yagnasri »

Just too much money gurus. Money which is now very short in supply. One mango man question - How much a Jaguar now costs? Can it deliver guided munitions from a high altitude now after its upgrades? What will be the pay load? Can we not use more Jaguars with Mki flying escort that a very very very costly new a/c ?
Austin
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Austin »

Su-30MKI or Mig-29 UPG or M2K , Jags are no substitute for MMRCA deal.

The growing shortage of Squadron and far worse the operational availability is at a very critical juncture and it will get worse as years go by.

Most of the Upgrade Program of 29 , M2K , Jags etc and MKI/LCA program will not be able to replace operational numbers at best they can get some technological leverage and that too will come with time not to mention developing operational tactics , maintenance ,spares support for new capability achieved that too takes time.

If you speak to any senior IAF personal they would tell you how dead critical MMRCA deal is to maintain and restore operational capability with right numbers this decade which is today at very critical juncture not withstanding MKI.

Hence IAF is dead set to get the MMRCA deal done which has been delayed due to political and economic reasons . There is no real substitute for the Rafale deal for this this decade the early the IAF gets it the better it is.
merlin
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by merlin »

ravi_g wrote:
I missed the reportage, but why did Jaitley clarify on Army Chief's appointment vis-a-vis Rafale?
Two separate issues. I commented on both but they are not related.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Cain Marko »

Narayana Rao wrote:Just too much money gurus. Money which is now very short in supply. One mango man question - How much a Jaguar now costs? Can it deliver guided munitions from a high altitude now after its upgrades? What will be the pay load? Can we not use more Jaguars with Mki flying escort that a very very very costly new a/c ?
Only problem with MKI is that it will make IAF inventory too top heavy, which as it is, it has to struggle with. They need a bird that can do deep strike and turn around and provide QRA + point defense if needed. Hence something that is smaller - Rafalesque.

MiG 29K/M or M2k upgrade would do it. Possibly even, MiG-29SMT. The cheapest route could be:

2 sqds MiG-29SMT + Qatari M2Ks or (least expensive ~ 1 - 1.5 billion)
2 sqds MiG-29M/35 (more expensive ~ $ 2 billion) or
possibly couple more sqds of LCA Mk1 (el cheapo wildcard option after FOC, low payload though)

The more expensive route is to buy fewer Rafales ~ 60 @ $ 10 billion. Of course, this will also require time consuming training, operational qualifications etc., which the above list will not (fast injection to address falling numbers).
member_28526
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_28526 »

Stick to plan. Get the Rafales.
Hike the defence budget by .5% of GDP this year and make it 2.5% for 5 years to finance modernisation.
if Modinomics work out in the next few years, problems solved.

If Jaitley gets finance, I'm rooting for Shourie for defence. He'll sort things out.
Eric Leiderman
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Eric Leiderman »

Raffy as an asset that will not be subject to interference in when and where we operate it.
It will not be subject to intrusive inspections.
The f35 will come with not strings attached but ropes attached.
So lets not just compare capabilities but look at possible usage in different senarios. The Raffy comes out way ahead.
We are paying a premium for operational independance.

Taking that one step further what aircraft is available for India that is not American
and offers the best capability (cost was a marginal factor in the MMRCA contest and only played a part in the last phase)
I think the question answers itself.

The capabilities of this aircraft @ 20 billion offer us a window to keep adventurism at bay, till our own capabilities come to the fore.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by GeorgeWelch »

Eric Leiderman wrote:(cost was a marginal factor in the MMRCA contest and only played a part in the last phase)
And now we see why that was a poor decision.
member_26622
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_26622 »

Wonder how many folks on this discussion understand how much 1 Billion $ is, forget 60 Billion $ ?

All of India's IT and BPO service exports for a FULL year comes to 60 Billion $. Imagine the hundreds of thousands of desi's working at nights and verbally abused every day for what --> so that our Imported Air Force can get 100 F***king planes ?

Just make more LCA to make up for the numbers gap and stop day dreaming!
member_20317
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_20317 »

When Ex Raksha Mantri said he did not have money for Rafale, he said it w.r.t. his personal position in the earlier sarkaar. The economy today has a NaMo premium built into it and dumping Rafale for cost at this point should not even be considered. Its not like we have to pay the inflated costs in one shot tomorrow.

The numbers story is also understandable. No numbers, ops suffer, ergo imports. That we do not have the production capacity to make more aircrafts and that is why we have to import.

........

The point that however still remains is that we do not make aircrafts - at least we do not make enough of the type we want. And in next 5 years a 45 year old guy would still be pointing out the same thing to his mates. So what is the plan there.

IMHO the NaMo premium is enough to jack up the production too while retaining the option to have at least the base numbers of Rafale that we committed to earlier. But where is the demand for indigenous production of the right type? IAF would simply import. Where is, even the emotional requirement from the fanbois/jingos for the enhancement in indigenous production levels.

Take for example the Rafale deal where the establishment has taken the Maximax option of : Importing the quick fix numbers + indigenous production of fuller requirement + option to order more and yet 10 years down the line the experts feel we would still be screw driving. Looks more like screwing ourselves all round. So what was the operating rationale 'the numbers'. But WhereTH did this operating rationale mutate into a Maximax position. This deal makes me nostalgic - I was a poor student because every question looked equally important to me and I could never prioritize.

............

Wish Rafale/FGFA was the last aircraft we ever imported. This is the ladder I would rather scale.

How do we climb that ladder and how much of Rafa deal do we have to revisit while and for the purpose of climbing up this ladder. For gods sake we have been an independent country for a long long time now and should have something to show for our maturity in industry. Kuch nahi to apni umr ki sharm to honi hi chahiye.

Money is coming but Show me the Plan.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_26622 »

This reminds me of stupid germans making 100's of super expensive tiger tanks while the Russians made 1000's of cheap T-34. Guess who won the war ???

Will 100 Rafale's take on the Chinese --- Really Really Really! They have 500 plus Su 30 & clones and churning out more every week. Rafale needs a minimum kill ratio of 1:5+ vs. a Su 30 to just survive. Impossible ratio even for super dog F-22.

OR

Same price - 1000 LCA. More than enough to defend India.

No F***king chinese general will think of taking on an Air-force with 1500 4+ Gen fighters (300 Su 30 MKI and 1200 LCA's).

100 and bankrupt OR 1000 and fighting strong >>> 100% sure our elected chaiwalla will answer this one right. Jai Ho!
GeorgeWelch
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by GeorgeWelch »

nik wrote:Same price - 1000 LCA. More than enough to defend India.

No F***king chinese general will think of taking on an Air-force with 1500 4+ Gen fighters (300 Su 30 MKI and 1200 LCA's).

100 and bankrupt OR 1000 and fighting strong >>> 100% sure our elected chaiwalla will answer this one right. Jai Ho!
- 100 Rafale will not bankrupt India.
- If it were enough to bankrupt India, then spending the same amount on LCA would also bankrupt India.
- You cannot equip an airforce with 1000 LCA for the same price as 100 Rafale anyways.
tushar_m

Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by tushar_m »

See on some points people will agree with you . But still there is no tank that can disappear in thin air (invisible or undetectable).

You can have 10 non stealthy aircraft vs 1 of enemy , but if enemy aircraft can carry 10 missile you are in trouble.
You can fire 10*10=100 missiles but if the enemies aircraft is not detected by the missiles or aircraft's radar they are useless.

LCA has its own place ,Rafale has its own & FGFA/AMCA will have their own space in IAF.

On the matter of Rafale it has a good place in IAF & M2K experience of IAF have created a strong case of it .

Also france is the only country which didn't put any restriction on us after 1998 , so we can count on them in any future conflicts.

We are just armchair generals (of our own room/house) . IAF is a professional force & they have done their homework on how to protect a county which will be No 1 economy in 2040.
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