Pakistan arms sales, ops, doctrine, etc

[Aditya G]

Perspective on the militant threat to Pak Navy and how it ties in with 26/11

Read it all.

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/12/13/p ... 91040.html

...

The most interesting aspect to us in India on the Agosta scandal and the attack on the French Navy engineers comes to light from the investigations done by the French led book famed French Magistrate Jean-Louis Bruguiere. While the Magistrate maintained that the Al Qaeda was behind the attack, the deeper conspiracy was revealed during a 2008 search in France that was however “officially” denied.

“The Karachi bombing was carried out thanks to the complicity of sections of the [Pakistani] army and of the agencies within the Pakistani secret services tasked with supporting Islamist guerillas.”

The document continues: “Those who used this Islamist group who carried out the action had a financial goal…. It was a question of obtaining the payment of unpaid commissions” that had been agreed upon as part of a purchase of French submarines for Pakistan in 1994.

The investigations by Magistrate Bruguiere into the Pakistan Military-Jihadi complex during the 2000s had also led to the discovery of one Willie Brigitte a French origin, Lashkar trained sleeper terrorist. It is in this investigation that we learn for the first time about Sajid Mir who was Brigette’s handler. Sajid Mir of course is of interest to us in India as the operational mastermind of the 26/11 Mumbai Attacks with extensive conversations between him and David Headley recorded by the FBI.

...

[Austin]

US gives Pakistan a free pass — and $1 billion — by ignoring LeT, LeJ

[arun]

X Posted from the STFUP thread.

Pakistan Taliban says country's army 'fooled Mujahideen youth for so-called freedom in Kashmir'

In his little over 15-minute long video released before Christmas, Rashid accuses Pakistan Army officers, the "Brahmins" of the force, of treating their juniors as "Shudras".

Video posted on You Tube of Ununiformed Jihadi, namely TTP Commander Adnan Rashid who formerly served with the Pakistan Air Force, delivering his message in English to the Uniformed Jihadi’s of the Military of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Note 3.30 where in reference to the surrender of 90,000 uniformed Jihadi’s to the Indian Army he says to the uniformed Jihadi’s of the Military of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, “You surrendered to the most timid nation of the world” :

TTP Adnan Rashid - A Message to the Security Forces in Pakistan

[arun]

Despite being posted before on BRF, posting link to an audio clip below as it is an useful companion piece to the above video.

You Tube Audio clip of a Radio Conversation between an Ununiformed Jihadi Scholar of the TTP and a Uniformed Jihadi of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on matters such as who among them is the more Pure of those in the Land of the Pure on a Mohammadden theology basis. Youtube audio clip is in Urdu but has English Sub-Titles:

Debate Between Taliban Scholar & Pakistan Army Official (English Translation)

[arun]

X Posted from the STFUP thread.

Times of India reports boat sunk by the Indian Coast Guard off the coast of Porbander was in “frequent touch with Pakistan army and Maritime Security Agency of Pakistan through a "contact".” Situation more and more looking like an event orchestrated by State Actors in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to harm India:

“Electronic chatter shows that two Pakistani fishing boats, one of which sank after being intercepted by the Coast Guard in the Arabian sea in early hours of January 1, were in frequent touch with Pakistan army and Maritime Security Agency of Pakistan through a "contact".”

And for our domestic sceptics who are consciously or unconsciously providing a burqua / burka of plausible deniability to elements in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan indulging in an unlawful activity, be it terrorism or smuggling or both, let me point out, as has the Indian Coast Guard, that flight is deemed as suspicious by Law Enforcement authorities anywhere in the world and exercise of force to prevent flight is a legitimate use of force by enforcement authorities:

"It was rogue boat, which repeatedly ignored warnings to stop, switched off its lights and tried to speed away in an area where Pakistani fishing vessels do not usually come. It's easy to raise questions about the operation but can one imagine what would been the consequences if the boat had managed to evade the security net," said an official. ……………………………

"The Coast Guard regularly intercepts Pakistani fishing boats when they come into our waters without shots being fired or people being killed. This vessel, however, behaved very suspiciously. No fishing nets were down, neither were the people dressed like fishermen," said the official.

Wireless intercepts indicate ‘terror’ boats were in touch with Pakistani army

[uddu]

This is one of the attempts by Terroristan to create a major terror incident to grab the attention of the world. Since om baba is visiting India there will be a focus on India - Pakistan issues if they could successfully carry out attacks. They do think that we will not respond in kind before the end of Om Baba's visit. Hence all these nautanki from Terroristan.

[Shreeman]

This is one of the attempts by Terroristan to create a major terror incident to grab the attention of the world. Since om baba is visiting India there will be a focus on India - Pakistan issues if they could successfully carry out attacks. They do think that we will not respond in kind before the end of Om Baba's visit. Hence all these nautanki from Terroristan.

Like equal-equal, the facade of secular pacifism is dead. People will take initiative andc thwart stuff given sufficient freedom to act. The essence of non-violent adversarial relationships is in the occasional biting, when it is merited diue to immature behavior by actors. Things are going a different route now, and it will be tough to hold flag meetings after chitA after chitA.

The president has no great leverage visible (who knows what internal levers are). One nation denied visa, the other has extended chief guestship.This is just a media circus, not much more. The pakis cant get thevpresident to visit -- unless it is unannounced handshake at pindi garrison. But they could pop over to Bagram for that anytime the president/VP/sec.def visits. There is no H&D in having the president visit. Modi can offer diamonds, pakistan only talibaan/AQ #3s. Distractions do not help the paki cause. Dont think the pakis want to burn any bridges worse than chhitisinghpura type event which is now hard to do post mumbai.

The US business is used to a far moire "thin" bureaucracy overseeing things. Be it US or china. I weould like to see the administration try to understand the slow molasses that flows in india. Being from the lava/sugar cane state he should be able to. In fact I will take anything of substance other than the token pictures of the first couple posing infront of taj mahal. But all this belongs in a thread I shed so!me time ago.

[arun]

X Posted from the "ISI - History and Discussions" thread.

Khalistani terrorist holding a Pakistani passport arrested in Pattaya, Thailand at the home of a Pakistani National believed to be an agent of the terrorist fomenting intelligence arm of the Uniformed Jihadi’s of the Military of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate aka ISI aka ISID.

The Khalistani Terrorist is one Jagtar Singh alias Tara Singh alias Gurmeet Singh who escaped from Indian custody while serving time for the killing of Punjab CM Beant Singh and fled to the Islamic Republic for shelter:

Fugitive Indian terrorist captured in Pattaya : Wanted for 1995 Indian bombing that killed 18

[K Mehta]

The z10 gift from China story is a hoax by ISI, newstribe is an propaganda website, pak tribune is at tribune dawt com dawt pk

[K Mehta]

200 uniformed jehadis halaled in zerg e buzz
Director General Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Major General Asim Saleem Bajwa said security forces have killed 2,000 militants in North Waziristan so far, Radio Pakistan reported on Friday.
Bajwa said 200 soldiers had been killed during Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and 800 others had sustained injuries.

[kancha]

Strategy Page Report

According the recently released official flight safety statistics, the air force logged around 82,000 hours in 2004. Given that PAF has over 550 combat aircraft and at least two pilots per available aircraft, the average comes to less that 75 hours per pilot per year.

Some interesting nuggets on the PAF in Op Vijay & Op Parakram too

[Aditya_V]

550 combat aircraft?? and how crucial the F-16 with AIM 120 are? given that the JF-17 has a lot of questions on ability, no BVR capability as on date? no public information on how mucch it is being flown, A to G tests done on it, flying from Skardu etc. I wouldnt be suprised if the first 50 - attrition losses of JF-17's are Hanger queens bought for H&D.

[Shreeman]

In 2004, there were no large numbers or flights of jf17, nor too many F16s flying. The numbers likely include all of mushak? and k8 sorties. Take with a healthy dose of baluchi mountain salt.

Edit: 75 hours is not shabby for a bakistani role if it werent a)cooked up, b)lopsided in the favor of >1,000 hour folks vs <100.

[Singha]

PAF probably operates like the old Luftwaffe, all the best pilots concentrated into a few focussed squadrons, with the best planes, ground crew and infra and weapons and permission to fly as much as they want.

the rest of second string have a wide gap.

its great strategy for a short sharp war. it does not work over a long attritional war as the germans found out. aces are needed all over to shepherd younglings and padawans through the first dozen missions where their mortality is highest.

but for TSP its a great plan to lavishly upkeep their F-solah elites. those guys will be getting 300 hrs and lots of exercises...and will be as good as the best anywhere in 1-vs-1 and many-vs-many missions, DPSA etc .

[Shreeman]

^^^ You can tug at the joystick all you want and burn fuel but anything you let lose is one arrow less in your armor. So, even the F16 pilots are likely flying a mix of "uptime" flights in tweets, k8s and the like to bkth preserve airframes and armament. Of course the FATA situation does not help matters.

However, do note the Rainbow CH3 development. The bakis are not total dummies, or rather the taller friends are holding their hands enough to keep from a total collapse. The CH3 is esstentially Rustom1. Yet CH3 is firing short range air to surface weapons as far as nigeria. So the bakis are probably doing the same in FATA. This is a low cost and troublesome development. In my opinion worse than any submarines that might venture over from china.

[Patni]

200 uniformed jehadis halaled in zerg e buzz
Director General Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Major General Asim Saleem Bajwa said security forces have killed 2,000 militants in North Waziristan so far, Radio Pakistan reported on Friday.
Bajwa said 200 soldiers had been killed during Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and 800 others had sustained injuries.

I am always amazed at how clinical and professional pakis are!! Look at the statastics! all nice round numbers like 2K non-uniformed and 200 uniformed enjoying 72 in perfect ratio of 10:1 and then 800 failed to claim their 72!! Its like they watching cricker score and release a press note when milestone round numbers have been reached! I wonder they share notes at night as to how many needed by either side to reach perfect round number next day?

[member_28840]

^^ There is no open source statistics available, any baki journalist who even so much as thinks of putting together the actual numbers gets a bullet in the back.

They do like their casualty numbers rounded down to a nice small value while rounding up any of their military kills. Helps sell that they are "effective allies in the fight against terrorism" to khan.

[shaun]

^^^
the figure off 2000 terrorist killed actually includes large proportion of civilians this is because of tanks , helicopter gun ships and fighter bombers they use in the name of killing terrorist .

Only Pakistani army and army of some other banana republics can come up with such fudged statistics , people forget that this is the same paki army which was claiming victories in 1971 war when 90K among them were POW.
They tell lies cause it is their habit but some time i feel they even don't know how to tell lies.

[Karan M]

PAF probably operates like the old Luftwaffe, all the best pilots concentrated into a few focussed squadrons, with the best planes, ground crew and infra and weapons and permission to fly as much as they want.

the rest of second string have a wide gap.

its great strategy for a short sharp war. it does not work over a long attritional war as the germans found out. aces are needed all over to shepherd younglings and padawans through the first dozen missions where their mortality is highest.

but for TSP its a great plan to lavishly upkeep their F-solah elites. those guys will be getting 300 hrs and lots of exercises...and will be as good as the best anywhere in 1-vs-1 and many-vs-many missions, DPSA etc .

i doubt that singha. see the quality of TFTA pilots sent to US for training. sure there were will be some good pilots but the PAF as a whole will be reflective of Pak society, beards and zeal on a rise.

Steve_Davies

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Post12 Sep 2006, 20:34
Sorry, sallondon, but that would really surprise me. Why? Because according to contacts at Moody AFB (where Pakistani pilots attend IFF prior to going to the F-16 B-course), the majority of your guys who go there are passed simply because their instructors are given no other choice. To quote directly, most of the Pakistani students that graduate from IFF would have failed the course had they been American studs. I think that speaks volumes.

Steve_Davies

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Unread post13 Sep 2006, 20:22
Blain

Looks like I've yanked your chain. Let me quantify and qualify the sources for my post.

Firstly, I cannot name my sources for obvious reasons. However, I can tell you that the sentiment echoed in my post was related to me by several experienced instructors *and* a squadron commander. Statements like "the majority of Pakistani students in the class cannot grasp fighter fndamentals", "we have Pakistani students that are close to being a danger to fly with", and "if this student was an American he would be washed out and sent to a multi-engine MWS" were frequently heard. If you want to argue that this can't possibly be true, then that's your choice. Personally, I believe that to do so would be akin to pissing in the wind. I've visited IFF several times, I have conducted official and off-the-record interviews, and in both tape-on and tape-off scenarios the message comes across loud and clear.

Secondly, although the Pakistani students at IFF are graded using exactly the same system as the US studs, the criteria for them to pass or hook are ride are dramatically relaxed. So, whereas a US stud my receive a grade of 4 (out of 5; where 1 is exceptional, and 5 is unsafe) and have to refly a sortie, a Pakistani student may receive a 3 (and pass) for flying to exactly the same standard. As I said in my original post, the IPs are under clear instructions to ensure that the students from Pakistan graduate IFF. Again, argue with this if you like, but that's straight from the mouths of the guys at the sharp end.

Finally, you maintain that the Pakistani pilots do not go straight to the F-16 from IFF. That may be true for the most part, but I understand that in recent years some guys have gone straight to the jet. PAF is not my area of expertise, but that is the information passed to me by IPs.

I'm not going to get into a pissing war with you: that's what I've been told, and that's what I am inclined to believe. Set this all as a backdrop to the standard of Pakistani Viper pilots, and I don't think that the original poster's assertion that Pakistani VIper drivers are the best in the world can possibly hold true.

If you’re an IFF IP and think that this is all BS, then PM me your name and .mil email address and I’ll ask my sources why their experience differs so greatly from yours.

Meathook

Elite 3K

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Posts: 3321
Joined: 13 May 2004, 23:37

Post13 Sep 2006, 02:18
I am not against boasting, been guilty of that myself at times but that was a rather large boast, really off the wall considering the audience he was addressing but having said that, I fully understand national pride, we all need it and thrive off of it from time to time.

Spend time at Luke (training base of many foreign pilots); at that time I was a flight chief for older F-16's training squadron that provided the vehicles for their training. These folks and many other nations tried like hell to learn to fly the aircraft. Of course this is no easy tasking, takes time, dedication and study, then you do it over and over again until you get it right.

The write ups (gigs) produced by many student pilots were to say...bogus to say the least (many are expected but these guys went way overboard not understanding the aircraft). But the constant ground aborting of aircraft (where no real problem existed) coupled with many near misses, over G'ed aircraft, number of pilots that outright failed or dropped out of the program was staggering in 1985 and 1986.

Granted it was not just this country that had its problems but this country led the pack in a negative way. They appeared to lack discipline, drive and real motivation picking up the system technology in the early years of my involvement. Then we accomplished numerous deployments to their location (in country) teaching their mechanics the skills required to maintain the aircraft, poor mechanics, poor training motivation and lack of understanding all led to many failed efforts.

Recently working the foreign military sales side of the house, F-16 aircraft regeneration efforts and long term system sustainment, the same problems (lack of understanding) seem to surface again and again. Many other issues I will not discuss openly but hopefully, you get my drift here. The limited combat skills they displayed in past aerial engagements and weapon systems tactics in older version aircraft have not been satisfactory enough to gain my approval of their flying capabilities, that is why I provided my hearse comments to the person that made the out of line boast.

Side note, I have over two hundred hours in F-16Bs and D’s, have been a corporate pilot for ten years now and served twenty six years in the USAF working and flying in numerous fighter aircraft (F4 Tow Target Operator in 1975 and 1976 at Edwards AFB). So I think I can speak from experience in both training and the operational side of the house.

These folks have a very long way to go to get anywhere close to the boast that was made. As you mentioned, technology is a major factor in both maintaining and operating this weapons system, they need to burn the midnight oil quite a bit more for my salute to be given in earnest.

[Karan M]

Another thing is being broke, how can they afford super elite F16 ops? Those aircraft are carefully husbanded with a few striking mud huts in waziristan.
mirages are too old to fly hard.
its the F7s which are probably building up the bulk of the hours and being chinese knockoffs not doing too great either.
no wonder they are so desparate for the jf-17.

[deejay]

-OT here-

When it comes to skills and Good Pilot vs. Bad Pilot an old war horse gave me an interesting piece of mind. I was a rookie then and I was all loud and noisy in the bar about Good Pilots and Bad Pilots. The Old Pilot finally let me know what he thought (and I am trying to be as accurate as I can) - "Son, you come in to this world with two bags, you may not see them but they are there. One bag is of luck and it is full and the other is of experience and it is empty. The trick is to fill the bag of experience before the bag of luck empties out. So also with flying. Hence, there are just two kinds of pilots - Inexperienced pilots and Experienced pilots. You don't get that right, you are a Dead pilot."

[Singha]

^^ Karan M, heh heh I was just being cautious.

but remember with the latest Amraam, Eyerie and that chinese awacs, the need for really high skills is relaxed and they can take long range potshots and possibly bag some strike aircraft with ease.

all they need to do is land a few hard blows to disrupt our mobilization and mount a good defence to last 14 days.

[fanne]

From planning purposes (and whatever maybe the truth, most likely they have an 'elite' F16 sq, at least they are not that dumb), one has to assume that 2-5 sq will form a lethal tip of the spear, pilot quality wise as good as our best. Then one has to come with strategy to neutralize that. It would be imprudent on our part to go assuming they do not have adequate training and then be surprised.

[shiv]

PAF probably operates like the old Luftwaffe, all the best pilots concentrated into a few focussed squadrons, with the best planes, ground crew and infra and weapons and permission to fly as much as they want.

Does not seem like a sound idea to me. How would they be finding out who the "best pilots" are and how can morale be maintained among the other pilots who might see favouritism? Paki Air Commodore Sajad Haider actually mentions some of these issues. Pilots do not like seeing morons being declared "best pilot" because of unfair assessments and ass licking and ass licking is a well know way of getting ahead, as mentioned by Haider.

[K Mehta]

X-posting from stfup thread. This seems a more appropriate thread. Note that the bundaar in this are all old block 1 bundaars. No report on new block 2 tests.
http://nation.com.pk/national/27-Jan-20 ... to-paf-ccs

SARGODHA - JF-17 Thunder, the multi-role and all-weather fighter aircraft, was formally inducted into the prestigious Combat Commanders’ School (CCS) of Pakistan Air Force (PAF) here on Monday.

The induction of this indigenous war fighting machine will further facilitate advanced combat training of PAF fighter pilots.

Deputy Chief of the Air Staff (Operations) Air Marshal Sohail Aman was the chief guest on the occasion.

[Karan M]

-OT here-

When it comes to skills and Good Pilot vs. Bad Pilot an old war horse gave me an interesting piece of mind. I was a rookie then and I was all loud and noisy in the bar about Good Pilots and Bad Pilots. The Old Pilot finally let me know what he thought (and I am trying to be as accurate as I can) - "Son, you come in to this world with two bags, you may not see them but they are there. One bag is of luck and it is full and the other is of experience and it is empty. The trick is to fill the bag of experience before the bag of luck empties out. So also with flying. Hence, there are just two kinds of pilots - Inexperienced pilots and Experienced pilots. You don't get that right, you are a Dead pilot."

well said. in ages past, i asked a pilot whose name is on the BR main site in awards section, about how some pilots claimed to be sort of divinity in the air. this experienced gent, smiled and said, who can claim to be that.. IMO, the pompous windbaggery displayed by the PAF & its supporters only disguises acknowledgement of their weakness & hence strutting around to disguise their insecurity.

[RoyG]

Pakistani Pilots are good and will put up a fight initially. But to claim that they're better than ours or will somehow dominate the skies past 1-2 weeks in the event of war is bs.

[Karan M]

^^ Karan M, heh heh I was just being cautious.

but remember with the latest Amraam, Eyerie and that chinese awacs, the need for really high skills is relaxed and they can take long range potshots and possibly bag some strike aircraft with ease.

all they need to do is land a few hard blows to disrupt our mobilization and mount a good defence to last 14 days.

true that but i think if we can put enough airframes in the air, they will do what PAF always does best. wage its own limited war, hire some gora to claim victory by writing a book or two and leave the pakistani army to get hammered around the clock.

[Karan M]

From planning purposes (and whatever maybe the truth, most likely they have an 'elite' F16 sq, at least they are not that dumb), one has to assume that 2-5 sq will form a lethal tip of the spear, pilot quality wise as good as our best. Then one has to come with strategy to neutralize that. It would be imprudent on our part to go assuming they do not have adequate training and then be surprised.

IAF wont underestimate anyone. Their assumption will be they face their equals. but doubt whether PAF will put elite in F-16s and dumb-erer in the rest. like the other AF there will be a fair sprinkling of good/average types across squadrons only the F-16s may have more "US trained" and other junta who get to go to exercises more often so better that way.

imo, we just need to raise our serviceability to high levels so we can field 100% mission available aircraft and maintain high op tempo through a long period. merely relying on airframes and then going to MOD asking for money for spares as 2nd priority should change. from a 70% mission available rate to 80%, translates to around 3-4 squadrons in itself.

[Karan M]

this is elite TFTA PAF at Kargil. they remind me of king arthur in monty pythons sketch. when they face the rabbit monster. "run away, run away". prudence and all, but very different from their online image of being super pilots imbued with holy zeal and overarching prowess.
http://kaiser-aeronaut.blogspot.in/2009 ... force.html

F-16 CAPs could not have been flown all day long as spares support was limited under the prevailing US sanctions. Random CAPs were resorted to, with a noticeable drop in border violations only as long as the F-16s were on station. There were a few cases of F-16s and Mirage-2000s locking their adversaries with the on-board radars but caution usually prevailed and no close encounters took place. After one week of CAPs, the F-16 maintenance personnel indicated that war reserve spares were being eaten into and that the activity had to be ‘rationalised’, a euphemism for discontinuing it altogether. That an impending war occupied the Air Staff’s minds was evident in the decision by the DCAS (Ops) for F-16 CAPs to be discontinued, unless IAF activity became unbearably provocative or threatening.

It also must be noted too that other than F-16s, the PAF did not have a capable enough fighter for patrolling, as the minimum requirement in this scenario was an on-board airborne intercept radar, exceptional agility and sufficient staying power. F-7s had reasonably good manoeuvrability but lacked an intercept radar as well as endurance, while the ground attack Mirage-III/5s and A-5s were sitting ducks for the air combat mission.

now tell me what has changed apart from a few more F-16s? a handful of awacs and IFR dont a new AF make.

yes, AMRAAMs, PGMs with the F-16 fleet, but the PAF still has huge holes in its platform capabilities.

[shiv]

If Pakistan wants to stop a war after 2 intense weeks India's response should be to prepare for a 3 month war.

[Singha]

we need to improve our serviceability rates for sure. around 85% would be a great mark to aim for.

[member_28840]

While 1v1 or even many v many may seem like the romantic ideal of fighter pilots, wars of the future should not / will not be fought that way.

Full intensity conflict will be short and sharp. 7 - 14 days and not more. No offense to you Shiv but a grinding 3 month long conflict will be expensive not only in terms of men and material but also in the fact that it will allow foreign aid to come pouring through to replace their losses. We cannot expect anyone to be on our side to replace our losses (maybe Israel might pitch in, and Russia might make some token deliveries).

If we don't gain complete air supremacy in under 3 days, the war is as good as lost (not in the conventional sense of the word lost, but in the sense that it will not be a complete and overwhelming victory but a negotiated ceasefire).

Compare this conflict to the Balkans and the both the wars in Iraq, possibly even the intervention in Libya. Open up with massive barrage of cruise missiles to take out their runways before their aircraft can get airborne and follow up with Iron Hand and Wild Weasel missions to degrade their air defense network. Follow up with massive armoured and mechanised thrusts with close air and anti tank gunship support, bypassing strongpoints and gaining ground.

While the ground invasion is going on the infrastructure of the cities, power stations, waste treatment plants, water processing plants, communication, government buildings and everything else in between need to be pounded. (Lets see how long their resolve lasts when their population is rioting due to lack of drinking water, in streets overflowing with sewage).

Drones will need to be constantly looking for their ballistic missile launch sites, while any identified nuclear establishments need to pounded relentlessly without giving them time to mate their warheads.

I believe this is the essence of Cold Start. People way smarter than any of us here will have identified and planned this out in detail.

What we need to be doing and are doing is to develop anti air systems capable to stopping their ballistic and cruise missiles (akash and pritivi bmd), develop and mass produce our own cruise missiles to carry our the initial runway denial and degradation (nirhbay and brahmos), develop or acquire lots of long endurance drones (rustom, searcher, triron or ghawk?). Get gunships and armed scout helicopters to stop anti tank ambushes and perform counter armour missions (lch,armed dhruv , apache, loh?), all the pieces are in place but the problem is the lack of urgency shown in getting everything together and making sure this all works as intended. Blame the babus, blame chalta hai, but a massive shake up is needed if we intend to see this through.

[Singha]

>> While the ground invasion is going on the infrastructure of the cities, power stations, waste treatment plants, water processing plants, communication, government buildings and everything else in between need to be pounded. (Lets see how long their resolve lasts when their population is rioting due to lack of drinking water, in streets overflowing with sewage).

er such infra targets are thin on the ground in rural or small town tsp. their total power gen is < Delhi + Mumbai requirement for a country 30% of our size. that should tell you something about how many juicy infra targets are there to pound.

the only viable target set is military 80%, jihadi 10%, bridges & ports & railways(whatever little exists) 10%

[shiv]

Full intensity conflict will be short and sharp. 7 - 14 days and not more. No offense to you Shiv but a grinding 3 month long conflict will be expensive not only in terms of men and material but also in the fact that it will allow foreign aid to come pouring through to replace their losses. We cannot expect anyone to be on our side to replace our losses (maybe Israel might pitch in, and Russia might make some token deliveries).

If we don't gain complete air supremacy in under 3 days, the war is as good as lost (not in the conventional sense of the word lost, but in the sense that it will not be a complete and overwhelming victory but a negotiated ceasefire).
.

I have heard this stuff for too long. Yours is one more variation of the same theme.

India and Pakistan can only fight a short sharp war. Pakistan will run out of supplies in 2 weeks and will depend on the international community to reach a negotiated cease fire. India can't last more than three weeks. We don't have the men. the material, the money, the will power etc. You have taken it one step further and have declared Indian defeat if it is not victory in 3 days.

You are entitled to your views on this but I think you misunderstood what I said.

I said, if Pakistan is planning for a two week war, we need to plan for a 3 month war. Of course that will be an expensive war but unless we plan for this you will keep hearing for the next 30 years - as I have heard for the last 30 years:

India and Pakistan can only fight a short sharp war. Pakistan will run out of supplies in 2 weeks and will depend on the international community to reach a negotiated cease fire. India can't last more than three weeks.

We have lived with the loser's viewpoint for a long long time. I believe that we need to start thinking differently.

[Shreeman]

shiv,

The reality is that only an ability for sustained pakistan size conflict (think continuous 20 squadrons level action or so) will make a difference. Anything less will continue to be interpreted in "credible defense" and "balance of forces" language. You may not reach this ability in the immediate future, but you are not reaching 42 sq or 90 days either.

Given that you are also only willing to think of a three month ability says something. As you note, it is russia style myopia that conflicts will be type x or type y or we have weapon z. The ability to domestically sustain a force level regardless is the only guarantee of peace.

You cant imagine ends of conflicts any more (syria now in years, iraq/afg in years, heck mali hasnt ended properly), ukraine coming to a year. You cant rely on any external actors either.

[member_28840]

@ Singha,

I realize that their infra is terrible, but the point of destroying what little they have is to increase the discomfort of their population. A population far removed from the frontlines will continue to support their troops. populations deprived of basic human needs such as drinking water will tend to riot and cause further disruption.

@ Shiv,

I think you may have completely misunderstood the point I am trying to make. I am trying to say that we have all the pieces in place to win a conflict within 14 days. And by win, I don't mean ceasefire and exchange prisoners and give back land as goodwill gesture crap that the word has come to mean. By winning this conflict I mean complete and utter dismantlement of Pakistan as a state. Anything else is to be viewed as a loss.

The reason anything else is to be viewed as a loss is due to the fact that if the state of Pakistan exists in some form or the other, it will continue to be a very painful thorn in our side. Reunify Kashmir and Punjab, take back Sindh , let the Balochs and Pashtuns make their own homeland (keeping them is just asking for another long drawn out insurgency), anything less than this will just make this whole cycle keep repeating as it has since 47.

That's why I am saying if we cant gain complete air dominance within 3 days so as to allow the army to capture all that ground within the rest of the 2 weeks, we will lose the long term. We will win in the short term without a doubt, the balance of power is strikingly lopsided in our favor, but in the long run? preventing this same endless cycle of win a war , make overly generous gesture and then hunker down and await more backstabbing will never end.

[Singha]

JF17 taking off from peshawar airport. it is a shared civil-military facility

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7449/141 ... 5e58_b.jpg

[Shreeman]

@ Singha,

I realize that their infra is terrible, but the point of destroying what little they have is to increase the discomfort of their population. A population far removed from the frontlines will continue to support their troops. populations deprived of basic human needs such as drinking water will tend to riot and cause further disruption.

@ Shiv,

I think you may have completely misunderstood the point I am trying to make. I am trying to say that we have all the pieces in place to win a conflict within 14 days. And by win, I don't mean ceasefire and exchange prisoners and give back land as goodwill gesture crap that the word has come to mean. By winning this conflict I mean complete and utter dismantlement of Pakistan as a state. Anything else is to be viewed as a loss.

The reason anything else is to be viewed as a loss is due to the fact that if the state of Pakistan exists in some form or the other, it will continue to be a very painful thorn in our side. Reunify Kashmir and Punjab, take back Sindh , let the Balochs and Pashtuns make their own homeland (keeping them is just asking for another long drawn out insurgency), anything less than this will just make this whole cycle keep repeating as it has since 47.

That's why I am saying if we cant gain complete air dominance within 3 days so as to allow the army to capture all that ground within the rest of the 2 weeks, we will lose the long term. We will win in the short term without a doubt, the balance of power is strikingly lopsided in our favor, but in the long run? preventing this same endless cycle of win a war , make overly generous gesture and then hunker down and await more backstabbing will never end.

Xave,

spending some time pouring over google maps or google earth is very instructive. Who knows how long these tools old show old pictures. Dont underestimate the potential of your enemy.

[adityadange]

xave,
gaining back punjab and kashmir wont help. it will rather complicate the issue. in general pakistani people thinks india as their enemy. if we gain control over land what to do with pakistani people? we surely cannot push them in arebian sea. if they become part of india then people like hafeez saeed (there are so many of them) will spread out in indian mainland and carry on their anti agenda. as per my reading somewhere they are already in contact with maoist. this will worsen the situation and india will destabilize.
added:
if we really want old indian land back then we should plan for very very long term. something like follow:
gain complete victory over pakistan in war then get government of our choosing there. take away power of pak army by changing their laws. make pro-india educational reforms for both normal schools and madarssa. continue like this for 4-5 generations then start talks of integrated india.