100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

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Cosmo_R
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by Cosmo_R »

Neshant wrote:Transfer of Technology is a useless buzzword. At the end of the day, the brains of foreign scientists nor their lifetime experience and knowledge can be downloaded into local brains.

FDI in defence is nothing more than an extension of the concept of licensed production. Mostly it involves assembly of foreign wares that has already been developed overseas.

As long as decision makers are aware of that, FDI is not a problem.
True. Another way to look at is that any imported defense item is not very different from 100% FDI. You have zero control over the manufacturer in dire times.

So actual 100% FDI with the fears of foreign departures in time of war are a bit ill founded.

As far as percentages go, put in a dynamic sliding scale perhaps using value added locally as a guide. Example: if you locally manufacture (input sourcing plus labor) 51% of the end product value, you get to have 51% FDI. If you have 75%, you get 75% FDI and so on.

With FDI, you impose a commitment that is harder to walk away from than an export.

The input sourcing plus labor value add criterion protects and militates against screwdriver assembly nonsense.

And I can't help but repeat that India has a unique advantage WRT to attracting defense FDI—a huge local market. The financial calculations of a GE or LM are not that different from a Ford. They can build up economies of scale in India and use it serve as a hub for exports of goods and services (repairs/MRO).

JMVHT
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by NRao »

100% FDI, does not have to mean >50% control by foreign entity.

"Investment" does not have to translate to "control" in all cases.

I would think India would control major decisions and that investors would understand that. As long as a balance is worked out it should not matter.

GE just bought out a *major* French company, but France still holds the keys to major French concerns, such as laying off people, etc.
Cosmo_R
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by Cosmo_R »

Yup Class B shares. From Ford Motor Company in the 1950s to Facebook today. FDI percentage can be anything you want it to be. Control is not the ownership percentage but the assigned voting power per share.

And. it can be made to serve national interests by aligning their commercial compulsions with our strategic ones.

This is what I have been saying all along.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by Karan M »

Their commercial compulsions in addressing their home markets dwarf their commercial compulsions in addressing our market. A single US program for instance can dwarf the entire Indian Defence budget for several years running. The scale is of an order of magnitude different.
And our system is leaky as a sieve as is, to prevent any rigorous implementation of any law. We haven't even enforced open & shut cases in prior deals because of our overall dependence on systems from respective countries of origin, to which defaulting firm belongs to.
But never mind, lets continue to wish for a legal utopia where India can enforce whatever it merely signs off on pieces of paper which usually aren't worth diddly squat in real negotiating power.
member_20317
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by member_20317 »

Karan M ji,

It is the present system that is legalistic. Witness the bungling in the Helicoptor scam. Once you get true commercials involved it is no longer merely legalistic. That is what the FDI could have enabled. Now with the chain holdings out of the picture for the foreign suppliers and an investment KLPD of 26%->49%, we run a very real risk of having the real opening up of the Defence FDI getting worked upon by the next UPA. The monsoon is already 43% down from last year (date to date), NDA simply would not have the wriggle room this FY.

There is somewhere an explaination by a DRDO head where he explains how 100% of the hardware for some mission computer is imported but 100% of the software is Indian. And the software constitutes 90% of the real cost of the commissioned mission computer. Wonder if all of the hardware is from the sanction-crazy countries. My hunch is that at least some would be from countries like the tiger economies with whom we could have established a working relationship. A relationship capable of taking on some the sanctions heat later on. Something that can allow for example the Singaporeans to say 'look unkil sam these thief Indians stole our investments so we cannot help you in sanctions wagehra'. We Indians OTOH can settle our books with the Singaporeans in some other manner.

Jane do, I guess one more false start. I just needed to whine a little :D.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by NRao »

49% FDI in defence unlikely to enthuse US companies: USIBC
"It is incremental because foreign defence manufacturers are indeed eager to partner with Indian defence industry, but in order to transfer sensitive technology, or collaborate on truly innovative and high-end manufacturing capability, there must be an ownership structure to the Joint Venture where management and certain intellectual property would have to remain in the control of the foreign investor," Madhavan said.
and ................................
"Since 2002, when foreign defence contractors were eligible to invest in India's defence sector, only USD 4.8 million has flowed into this sector. This meager figure is unlikely to change in a substantive fashion unless the threshold increases to allow 51 per cent or above," Madhavan said.
:shock:

Is that right?
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by abhik »

^^^
What? Does that mean the idea that deluge of foreign companies coming in to set up plants to manufacture uber high tech critical technology and create millions of jobs was simply BS?
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by JayS »

NRao wrote:49% FDI in defence unlikely to enthuse US companies: USIBC
"It is incremental because foreign defence manufacturers are indeed eager to partner with Indian defence industry, but in order to transfer sensitive technology, or collaborate on truly innovative and high-end manufacturing capability, there must be an ownership structure to the Joint Venture where management and certain intellectual property would have to remain in the control of the foreign investor," Madhavan said.
and ................................
"Since 2002, when foreign defence contractors were eligible to invest in India's defence sector, only USD 4.8 million has flowed into this sector. This meager figure is unlikely to change in a substantive fashion unless the threshold increases to allow 51 per cent or above," Madhavan said.
:shock:

Is that right?
Part of lobbying and psy-ops probably. The figure of 4.8 million is correct AFAIK. But I think its not just owning to that fact that the FDI is limited. If GOI had allowed our private companies in big way to participate, there would have been more opportunities for JVs and more money would have come up. With the kind of atmosphere we have where there is no assurance of any kind for orders, heck not even for participation in defense equipment sell, which foreign company would want to invest huge sums?? If I am interested in investing in a JV with say TATA for say Howitzer, why would I invest B's of $$ when GOI is not showing any interest in buying those guns?? I would probably start with small token amount. If there are orders coming up, or GOI shows pro-active support for the JV I would be happy to invest more heavily. Until then I might just pay some bribes and see if I can sell my own product as direct import and the SDREs are quite gullible.

The main point to consider is they want the full management control and IPRs with them. That's the key as far as I am concerned. I was reading about TISA (Trade In Services Agreement), that the Wikileaks released recently, the other day. Of coarse US is most enthusiastic for pushing this. Here is some analysis presented on the same.
https://wikileaks.org/tisa-financial/analysis.html

Some of the key demands by US corporate world are:
US Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association21

Suppliers should be able to choose their corporate form (e.g., a 100%-owned subsidiary, a branch or a joint venture) and be treated no less favourably than domestic suppliers (i.e., national treatment).
Other measures, such as the protection of cross-border data flows and transfers, and the inclusion of investor-state dispute settlement commitments, the ability to store and process data from a central regional location, rather than establishing a local facility is essential.
Buying and selling financial products across borders, participating in and structuring transactions, and providing investment advice, without establishing a commercial presence and without being subject to separate licensing and approval requirements that generally apply to firms commercially present in a market.
Permit consumers travelling outside their territories to utilize any capital markets related service in the other Party’s jurisdiction
Agree not to adopt or maintain measures that prevent or restrict transfers of information or the processing of financial information, including transfers of data by electronic means, or that prevent transfers of equipment, where such transfers of information, processing of financial information, or transfers of equipment are necessary for the conduct of the ordinary business of a financial service supplier.
And there are many more. Its very easy to see what they are trying to do. They want unrestricted share of the markets of other countries without conceding any ground on control or liabilities to law-of-the-land.

I think this is ubiquitous feature of their overall strategy in every field and I don't think its inappropriate to extrapolate it to defense sector as well and connect the dots there. They will try to push as hard as possible for getting unrestricted access to our market without relinquishing any control whatsoever, until we keep showing gullible faces to them. They agree for 100% or even 200% offsets in other countries and cry foul over our 30% requirements. Unless we be very strict on our stance and let them know in no uncertain terms that if they want to operate in our country it would be on our terms, we will keep seeing such reports and lobbying.

One solace is India is not party to TISA. The whole TISA episode is very disturbing and we should take our lessons from it. We should keep protecting our own interests.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by partha »

How Mahindra developed a world class SUV 'Scorpio' is interesting. With Scorpio, M&M went from automobile assembly to indigenous development of world class automobiles. From wiki -
Prior to the mid-nineties, Mahindra & Mahindra was an automobile assembly company. The company manufactured Willys Jeeps and its minor modified versions, with modifications carried out in India. In 1996, the company planned to enter the SUV segment with a new product which could compete globally. Since M & M did not have the technical knowhow to handle such an ambitious product, they devised an entirely new concept among Indian auto companies. Roping in new executives who had worked in the auto industry in western countries, such as Dr. Pawan Goenka and Alan Durante, the company broke the rule that says automakers must design, engineer and test their own vehicles while spending millions of dollars in the process.

The new Mahindra Scorpio SUV had all of its major systems designed directly by suppliers, with the only inputs from Mahindra being design, performance specifications and program cost. The design and engineering of the systems were carried out by suppliers, as well as testing, validation and materials selection. Sourcing and engineering locations were also chosen by suppliers. The parts were later assembled in a Mahindra plant under the Mahindra badge, being a well-known brand in India. Using this method, the company was able to build from scratch a new vehicle with virtually 100 percent supplier involvement from concept to reality, at a cost of Rs 600 crore ($120 million), including improvements to the plant. The project took five years to move from concept to final product. The cost was estimated in 2002 to be Rs 550 crore.
Questions that cross my mind -

Would it have been possible for Mahindra to do this before 1991? Can something like this be replicated in the defence sector by an Indian company if the sector is opened up? Would it make sense to experiment 51% and 100% FDIs in select product segments like say small arms to minimize the risk, if any?
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by JayS »

partha wrote:How Mahindra developed a world class SUV 'Scorpio' is interesting. With Scorpio, M&M went from automobile assembly to indigenous development of world class automobiles. From wiki -
Prior to the mid-nineties, Mahindra & Mahindra was an automobile assembly company. The company manufactured Willys Jeeps and its minor modified versions, with modifications carried out in India. In 1996, the company planned to enter the SUV segment with a new product which could compete globally. Since M & M did not have the technical knowhow to handle such an ambitious product, they devised an entirely new concept among Indian auto companies. Roping in new executives who had worked in the auto industry in western countries, such as Dr. Pawan Goenka and Alan Durante, the company broke the rule that says automakers must design, engineer and test their own vehicles while spending millions of dollars in the process.

The new Mahindra Scorpio SUV had all of its major systems designed directly by suppliers, with the only inputs from Mahindra being design, performance specifications and program cost. The design and engineering of the systems were carried out by suppliers, as well as testing, validation and materials selection. Sourcing and engineering locations were also chosen by suppliers. The parts were later assembled in a Mahindra plant under the Mahindra badge, being a well-known brand in India. Using this method, the company was able to build from scratch a new vehicle with virtually 100 percent supplier involvement from concept to reality, at a cost of Rs 600 crore ($120 million), including improvements to the plant. The project took five years to move from concept to final product. The cost was estimated in 2002 to be Rs 550 crore.
Questions that cross my mind -

Would it have been possible for Mahindra to do this before 1991? Can something like this be replicated in the defence sector by an Indian company if the sector is opened up? Would it make sense to experiment 51% and 100% FDIs in select product segments like say small arms to minimize the risk, if any?
All M&M did is system integration mostly and assembly of coarse. They never dirtied their hands with actual critical automotive technology. Such hands-off approach would not work in defense. Its a folly to compare auto sector to defense. Unlike auto sector, defense does not follow mere free-market rules, its quite complicated, a totally different ball game. Even after 20 years, with all conducive environment, not a single auto company in India can claim to make IC engine on their own, nor are they working on any new one. Or DRDO would not had had to start making one for own their own that too with foreign consultants. The least said about it the better.

We could open up less critical sections such as small arms. Might help us in some way or other. But the hope that they will help us enable in making our own weapons would be just wet dreams. We might get technical-know-how, but we won't get technical-know-why, no matter what.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by rkhanna »

How Mahindra developed a world class SUV 'Scorpio' is interesting. With Scorpio, M&M went from automobile assembly to indigenous development of world class automobiles. From wiki -
No offence but the Scorpio and now the XUV are horrible horrible SUV's as far as SUV's go and far from being anything world class.

Hopefully the little Korean company they bought can help them build up a platform
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by prabhug »

Pros
Maybe India can become low cost manufacturing HUB for defense business.
Can bring in few processes for running such businesses
Cons
So now Indian Military can fund fancy products.
Now Khans and vodkas can exactly know where the Indian defense is weak(Assumption , these companies will have more access to Indian Defense)
DRDO can even be kicked in its ass by a kid around the globe for it's in efficiency
what happens if India has strong Industrial military nexus like in the US(May not be now but 10 yrs down the lane).
Now these manufacturing units are going Rob the little talent we have in the DPSU's and make them slaves

Looks like we like to create a new problem than to solve the problem in hand.
Atlast we accept the failure to build/create few defense companies and we don't we even have/want a road map to it

The lowered cost is going come from the same SDRE's working at cheaper costs.
It's reminds me the Tea plantations under firangi supervisors, just a 100yrs back.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by JayS »

rkhanna wrote:
How Mahindra developed a world class SUV 'Scorpio' is interesting. With Scorpio, M&M went from automobile assembly to indigenous development of world class automobiles. From wiki -
No offence but the Scorpio and now the XUV are horrible horrible SUV's as far as SUV's go and far from being anything world class.

Hopefully the little Korean company they bought can help them build up a platform
I just wanted to be humble so didn't say this, but I cent percent agree with you that M&M SUVs are far from world class and for that matter most, if not all, made in India cars are not upto global standard. Most of them are not even tested for basic crash-worthiness.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by vic »

M&M SUVs were the right product at the right time. Now they need to pull up their pants and compete in big boys club.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by partha »

ok, may be Scorpio is not truly world class but it was still a significant improvement over existing Indian automobiles when it was introduced and it continues to evolve. An Indian company set a hard goal and found an innovative way to a achieve it within a certain amount of time. My intention was to point out this fact. OFB got the Bofors "transfer of technology" in the 80s and they sat on it for 20 years leaving our armed forces short on good artillery guns. Why didn't OFB use that ToT as a base, modify the design and evolve it into the next generation artillery? A private sector company might have done that. Even if there was no requirement for our forces, they would have done that to address the export market because they are driven by profits. A few years back, to get some work done, I had to deal with multiple government institutions. The level of inefficiency and corruption is mind boggling. I don't expect anything better in defence institutions like OFB.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by Karan M »

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opi ... 242242.ece

As a retired naval electrical officer I am surprised at your endorsement of 100 per cent FDI in defence manufacturing subject to some conditions (“Pseudo-swadeshi defence”, July 22). It is obvious you are under the impression that our heavy reliance on imports will vanish once we allow full ownership to foreign companies. This is a myth.

No country allows 100 per cent FDI in the defence industry. The reasons are obvious — friends today may not be friends tomorrow. Decisions on what state-of-art weapons can be sold or transferred are taken by governments, not companies and depend on security considerations.

Our heavy dependence on foreign sources is for platforms and systems such as aircraft, submarines, tanks and missiles. There is no way to ensure all of them set up shop in India along with the system integrator. Import content will still be high. Imposing conditions on progressive indigenisation before allowing full ownership is unlikely to work. Foreign companies will insist on guaranteed orders for quantities which may exceed our requirements besides foreclosing our options for better equipment from another source.

Given our education levels, economic strength and geopolitical threats, the need for weaponry of the latest technology for our defence forces needs to be questioned.

Battle outcomes depend on many factors besides technology: morale and leadership of men and operability, reliability and sustainability of the materiel. Therefore, while the frustration of the Government at the high import bill for defence is understandable, the solution is to get our ordnance factories, defence PSEs, DRDO laboratories and the private sector to act in concert.

S Prabhala

Bangalore
partha
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by partha »

US has something called "Special Security Arrangement" where in a foreign company in US operates as if it is an American company with American management.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Se ... rrangement
A proxy board is a requirement imposed under a Proxy Agreement by the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Security Service on foreign investors seeking to acquire certain American companies. This is for national security reasons and applies mainly to defense contractors which are involved in highly classified contracts. The Proxy Agreement is between the foreign company, the US subsidiary holding classified contracts and the DSS.

A proxy board is a board composed entirely of American citizens which are responsible for the day-to-day running of the business. In this way the company's classified information is "insulated" from foreign exploitation but the parent company still benefits from any profits made by its subsidiary.
That's interesting. However whether India will be able to pull off some thing like that with FDI is doubtful. Also, not sure whether the proxy board is applicable only for sensitive investments or for any foreign investment in defense.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by NRao »

Not sure what the confusion is.

There are Indian companies in the US, that have "cleared" areas - run by authorized people. They do "cleared" work.

Larger companies are more formal and they tend to have spun off companies that are dedicated to "cleared" work. Laptops are secured, email accounts are totally different, there is a clear line that sets them apart - companies are the same (IBM, Deloitte, Accenture (not a US company), Capgemini (not a US company), etc).

Each nation has rules. Then each entity within the gov has their own set of rules. Follow them, pay the costs and one is through. Matter of following rules.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by rkhanna »

I just wanted to be humble so didn't say this, but I cent percent agree with you that M&M SUVs are far from world class and for that matter most, if not all, made in India cars are not upto global standard. Most of them are not even tested for basic crash-worthiness.
Atleast the Mahindra's are evolving and alot of it is through there own internal R&D effort. What excuse do the Tata's have? After decades of Mercedes and Fiat technology that they bought and squandered away. Its no coincidence that the Original Tata Sumo looked like a Merc GWagon.

Most of our Major "Corporates" who actually have the balance sheets to roll into the Weapons Business actually also make pretty shoddy products. Our private shipyards (pipavav, etc) still make rubbish and have been floated with substantial political money and backing and may end up having a worse effect than our government owned entities.

Alot of the smaller/start up private guys (an example being IdeaForge) maybe far superior in tech and end product but dont have the financial or "brand" muscle to deliver the big ticket items to the government and may end up just falling off the map.

My point is from a comparable view point our private sector may not be the miracle cure to our DRDO/OFB lethargy that we may all believe.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by dinesh_kimar »

^ OT Here but still:
TATA Motors ERC (Engg. Research Center) is much superior to M&M.
Their Vehicle range is from 16 bhp (TATA ACE) to Prima World Truck (560 bhp) and are among the only Indian companies who design their own engines, gearbox, chassis, cab and other aggregates.
They successfully outsold the Japanese competition in the 1980s with the introduction of 407 and 608 LCV (AFAIK, nowhere else in India or the World, has any company managed to beat the entire combined Japanese competition).
They are 4th Largest CV maker in the World, behind their erstwhile collaborator, Mercedes Benz, and bought Korean truck Maker Daewoo a few years back. They are largest maker of luxury cars in China thru their fully owned subsidary, Jaguar-Land Rover.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by abhik »

partha wrote:US has something called "Special Security Arrangement" where in a foreign company in US operates as if it is an American company with American management.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Se ... rrangement
A proxy board is a requirement imposed under a Proxy Agreement by the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Security Service on foreign investors seeking to acquire certain American companies. This is for national security reasons and applies mainly to defense contractors which are involved in highly classified contracts. The Proxy Agreement is between the foreign company, the US subsidiary holding classified contracts and the DSS.

A proxy board is a board composed entirely of American citizens which are responsible for the day-to-day running of the business. In this way the company's classified information is "insulated" from foreign exploitation but the parent company still benefits from any profits made by its subsidiary.
That's interesting. However whether India will be able to pull off some thing like that with FDI is doubtful. Also, not sure whether the proxy board is applicable only for sensitive investments or for any foreign investment in defense.
Does the US allow Chinese or Russian companies to invest in American companies? If am not wrong most of the Foreign ownership in American arms companies are not just "Western" but "Anglo" who are in complete lock step with the US.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by rkhanna »

^ OT Here but still:
TATA Motors ERC (Engg. Research Center) is much superior to M&M.
Their Vehicle range is from 16 bhp (TATA ACE) to Prima World Truck (560 bhp) and are among the only Indian companies who design their own engines, gearbox, chassis, cab and other aggregates.
They successfully outsold the Japanese competition in the 1980s with the introduction of 407 and 608 LCV (AFAIK, nowhere else in India or the World, has any company managed to beat the entire combined Japanese competition).
They are 4th Largest CV maker in the World, behind their erstwhile collaborator, Mercedes Benz, and bought Korean truck Maker Daewoo a few years back. They are largest maker of luxury cars in China thru their fully owned subsidary, Jaguar-Land Rover.

Researching and prototyping is one thing. Mass producing on a standardized line is another thing. Today Tata Commercially available mass products are sub par on Quality. Look at the tata buses plying on Bombay Roads or any of their passenger cars. And we not in the 1980s [anymore. Like i said a few decades back the Tata's got tons of Tech from Mercedes and Fiat and squandered it.

4th Largest CV maker = 4th best quality? Dont forget their major market is the Subcontinent and servicing the hugely under penetrated market at lower cost.

Tata's have very little input in JLR. the smartest thing they did was leave their management alone while fixing their balance sheet.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by rkhanna »

Does the US allow Chinese or Russian companies to invest in American companies? If am not wrong most of the Foreign ownership in American arms companies are not just "Western" but "Anglo" who are in complete lock step with the US.

I maybe wrong but i think there is plenty of Chinese and Middle Eastern money in listed defence companies. Think at last count the Saudis had more than US$400bn invested in America and their capital equalled roughly 5% of the NYSE. And a number of PE funds out of HK have made investments in Dual use tech startups/ private SME's in America in the Past.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by Cosmo_R »

"Hike in defence FDI cap fails to lure investors"

No surprises here.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 522466.cms

This is the priceless part wherein it is shown how far up our a$$es we have gone:

"There is also the fear of national security being compromised in the "sensitive" defence sector, which A K Antony frequently used to torpedo all attempts to hike the 26% FDI cap during his almost eight years as defence minister."

We import 65% of our weapons from abroad and we are concerned about ToT in FDI? Also, what is more 'sensitive' imports (0% FDI) and 100% FDI but made in India?

If I were advising an Israeli or US company on whether to invest in India, I would say to them: "It makes zero sense to invest in defense in India because:

1. They don't have a procurement strategy. They really have not prioritized their needs so you'd be crap shooting.

2. Any tender you enter and win will be both costly, drawn out and subject to PILs by the losing vendors.

3. The GoI only acts quickly when there is an unforeseen (by them) conflict. They have not foreseen a conflict so far so all conflicts they get into are unforeseen. Accordingly, it is better to wait and distribute a lot of brochures, wine and dine 'defense journalists' and ex servicemen and when there is some sort of conflict you can send the cavalry— deliver from your stocks at exorbitant prices and your sales volume will far exceed anything you could ever gain from FDI.

4. Pressure the GoI on FDI because it will invite opposition from their leftists and unionists. This will ensure you don't actually have to invest in India and hire a lot of people you can't fire. This way its them not you and besides, it's much more profitable to sell from your domestic lines.
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Re: 100% FDI in Defence: Understanding Pros and Cons

Post by Eric Leiderman »

partha

the fact that our OFB did not follow up on TOT for Bofers for many years might be due to the political pressure of a particular party, family.
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