PAK-FA and FGFA: News & Discussion - June 2014

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Aug 2015 07:33

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 11 Aug 2015 02:51

IAF halves its demand for Russian fighter jets

Looking to cut costs and prune military imports, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has halved its demand for Russian-built fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA).

It now wants just three squadrons of the fighter jets which are to be inducted into the Russian Air Force in 2016.

Sources say the IAF has scaled down its needs and now indicated that just three squadrons (around 18 planes in each), besides a few more for training of the pilots, will be enough for now. This works out to be 65 planes, almost half from the earlier projection of 127 FGFAs to be jointly designed and produced by India and Russia.

The T-50 has been built for the Russians under the PAK-FA (Prospective Airborne Complex of Frontline Aviation) programme for the fifth generation fighter aircraft.

A plane will cost $100 million (Rs 650 crore). Three squadrons are the projection of an off-the-shelf deal India is pressing its military ally for immediate delivery of the planes.

New Delhi has suggested to Moscow that the T-50 fighter jet can be supplied to the IAF, while the research to improve upon the aircraft can carry on simultaneously. The Tribune had first reported about India’s offer on February 24 this year.

Simultaneously, the IAF is also working on a $11 billion R&D contract for long-term development of the jet. It is pending ratification since 2013. In a written reply to the Rajya Sabha on August 4, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said the preliminary design stage of the fifth generation fighter aircraft programme completed in June 2013.

“The expenditure incurred so far is Rs 1,483.15 crore,” Parrikar said. The next stage of development of the fifth generation fighter aircraft will commence after signing of the R&D contract.

The problem is in case India opts for the R&D contract route, the deliveries are envisaged to commence 94 months – eight years. The next best option is to go for an immediate off-the-shelf purchase and in case the research-and-development contract works out, more jets can be produced here.

With a dwindling fleet of fighter jets, this wait is not an option for the IAF, said sources. By the end of this year, the IAF would be at its lowest combat strength in more than a decade. It will be down to 32 squadrons by the end of this year and in the middle of a predicted shortage.

In a nutshell, the IAF with 576 fighter jets will be well short of the 750-strong fighter jet fleet mandated by a government sanction to wage a simultaneous two-front war with Pakistan and China.

The pruning down of numbers has been done as the IAF is backing its own options of getting French-origin Rafale jets and the remaining batch of 72 Sukhoi-30 MKI jets from Russia, sources say.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to France in April this year announced the intent to get 36 Rafale jets. A cost negotiation committee is in talks with the French company and the numbers could go beyond the announced 36 as the IAF has projected a demand for 80 Rafale-type planes.

srai · Post by **srai** » 11 Aug 2015 04:14

^^^

If Pilatus deal is anything to go by, the IAF will induct these fly-away 3-squadrons of PAK-FA and then renege on the FGFA R&D portion. Like the HAL HTT-40, they will likely do everything in their powers to kill the indigenous effort citing various reasons, such as cost, immediate need, etc., in favor of more imported PAK-FA.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Aug 2015 05:26

Does anyone realize that - as we stand - the Indian "order", is bigger than that of the RuAF.

Save Sukhoi redux.

Having said all that, that will be the best plane till .....................

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Aug 2015 08:46

don't see this as an unwelcome development...folks had guessed that this would happen anyway..this is simply the mki route, buy an initial 3 squads worth ala su-30k, and then slowly start local production of customized variant. Will also help address the shortage crisis.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Aug 2015 09:51

VinodTK wrote:
Sources say the IAF has scaled down its needs

99% probability that this news is fake.

Last news was that India has invested 50% of money in the program but getting only 30% of work. Now suddenly "sources say" x numbers have been ordered. I would classify that as bullshit.

Nowadays we have to be more and more careful about defence news.

tushar_m · Post by **tushar_m** » 11 Aug 2015 10:38

The news states 2-3 things

1. We will get 3 sqds of 60-65 fighters directly from Russia in shot term (say before 2020).

2. Further orders for this type of fighter can come in the form of FGFA(Indian version) & not PAK-FA.

"New Delhi has suggested to Moscow that the T-50 fighter jet can be supplied to the IAF, while the research to improve upon the aircraft can carry on simultaneously."

This news if true will come as a boost for IAF as we will get 3 sqds of 5th Gen fighters in few years while FGFA matures for production in India

Earlier plan would have seen only a few planes from Russia while HAL works on FGFA & starts production after 2020-2022.

member_28990 · Post by **member_28990** » 11 Aug 2015 13:58

has this plane even been evaluated by the IAF using our sensors/setup? actually, has anybody from the IAF even been inside the cockpit of one of these?

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 14:25

65 fighters by 2020? No way with the current production plans and level of maturity. The current plans don;t have serial production beginning for some time, and you add the general 3-4 years for the normal touch labor ramp up in production volume that is generally associated with the aerospace industry. I seriously doubt that the program will reach even moderate ramp rates by the end of the decade let alone deliver 65 fighters to one customer. It would be quite an achievement in my opinion if they could serial produce 30 aircraft between CY2-17 and CY2020, but a more realistic goal may be to think of the start of serial production to have a couple of years at below 15/year and a slower ramp up to something like 25/year by year 3 or 4. Of course this means significant investment into the production process..But that is if they do concurrent production and system integration. New missiles are being created for this, and it has to certify the full envelope for them. Weapons testing by the service (RuAF) is yet to start..it'll be a while before the Stage-1 T-50 is full tested for its full weapons carriage and envelope.

Has the Su-35 production rate reached the 25-30 per annum Sukhoi was hoping to get by now?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Aug 2015 16:44

Production/delivery plan as of now; PMF=FGFA

2016 - 2 serials, 3 prototypes. (10,-11,-12. Last one is static frame)
2017 - 5 serials, 3 of which will be part of PMF.
2018 - 5 serials, 1 of which will be part of PMF.
2019 - "Full series", unkown what that means but probably atleast 12 frames.

T-50-5R will take off in coming days, T-50-6-2 will follow afterwards, in September.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Aug 2015 16:45

T-50 prototype takes to the skies at Aviadarts-2015

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Aug 2015 16:51

One *cannot* look just at one or two factors or even the traditional ones.

Bottom line - to our analysis - are simple questions about production. They needed a life support system for Sukhoi and that is what this is. In addition it attempts to fulfill an IAF need.

Love the idea of getting a good plane. But evaluation, support, etc are a huge issue. Bet this is a political decision.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 16:56

Austin wrote:Production/delivery plan as of now; PMF=FGFA

2016 - 2 serials, 3 prototypes. (10,-11,-12. Last one is static frame)
2017 - 5 serials, 3 of which will be part of PMF.
2018 - 5 serials, 1 of which will be part of PMF.
2019 - "Full series", unkown what that means but probably atleast 12 frames.

T-50-5R will take off in coming days, T-50-6-2 will follow afterwards, in September.

Based on that I still expect a 2022-2025 timeframe for firs-squadron as likely and 2025-2030 time-frame for first operational squadron as highly likely for the iAF. The definitive FGFA with whatever changes the IAF will want to work into it ( I would assume that would be based on the R&D agreement and payment that has yet to occur) will follow around the middle of next decade if everything goes to plan, with deliveries post whatever time HAL (or a third party) takes to get things in order. The same labor-learning curves associated with Russia would apply to HAL as well. This assumes everything goes to plan..Sukhoi won this thing in 2002, so a 2015 serial production isn't way off form other advanced programs...But the meat of the details are still relatively unknown and that is system integration and weapons and weapons system testing. Thats the big unknown from what I have come across.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Aug 2015 16:56

Austin wrote:Production/delivery plan as of now; PMF=FGFA

2016 - 2 serials, 3 prototypes. (10,-11,-12. Last one is static frame)
2017 - 5 serials, 3 of which will be part of PMF.
2018 - 5 serials, 1 of which will be part of PMF.
2019 - "Full series", unkown what that means but probably atleast 12 frames.

T-50-5R will take off in coming days, T-50-6-2 will follow afterwards, in September.

What is your source?

And how can they do anything on "PMF" when the R&D had not even started?

IIRC, the Russians have reduced their own order for the PAK-FA. So, where is the optimism coming from?

Here you go. The Indian and the more dependable version.

The next stage of development of the fifth generation fighter aircraft will commence after signing of the R&D contract.

The problem is in case India opts for the R&D contract route, the deliveries are envisaged to commence 94 months – eight years.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 17:03

NRao wrote:One *cannot* look just at one or two factors or even the traditional ones.

Bottom line - to our analysis - are simple questions about production. They needed a life support system for Sukhoi and that is what this is. In addition it attempts to fulfill an IAF need.

Love the idea of getting a good plane. But evaluation, support, etc are a huge issue. Bet this is a political decision.

Increase in ramp rates is a factor of what the Russians commit to the program over and above what is planned. If they reach 12-15 a year by 2019, they would need a surge to 25 or so to bring it in line with what they expected from the Su-35 (Not sure if that has been achieved or not). I don't think the RuAF knows 100% about the number they would be able to afford over the next 10 years so they may play with the T-50 to Su-35 Ratio and even buy some more 30's to modernize. Of course all of this is contingent upon successfully completing flight testing, transitioning on to weapons system and weapons testing and clearing the envelope for a host of weapons they have planned including some that are totally new.

As Lockheed realized with both the F-22 and F-35, producing an advanced stealth aircraft at a high rate does not follow the quality or cost curves when you ramp up as legacy aircraft, and this was after a few decades worth of experience in producing low-observable frames and systems. This has led to a longer touch-labor efficiencies than building the F-16 or F-18..and has also involved automating a lot of the processes that no one wanted to automate due to complexity..In fact more than 5 years after serial production they are still automating processes as they go form 30+ a year to 150+ a year in a matter of 4-5 years.

tushar_m · Post by **tushar_m** » 11 Aug 2015 17:12

Are we forgetting the fact that Russian are not new to aircraft production .

When we are willing to provide $$$$ then increasing production will not be a problem.Think of it as a bailout money for slowed/uncertain orders on PAK-FA production.The Russians might be willing to provide there share of PAK-FA production (which they reduced recently due to $$$ i guess) to IAF.

Russians now have increased orders for Su35 which has matured now while reducing PAK-FA sqds.(which is still in testing) , this is where IAF can get benefited .

IAF is now going for Su30mki route ...........????

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 17:16

We know that, but you have to commit resources to build a supply train for a new aircraft. For the Flanker or Fulcrum family those investments were made long ago, and only upgrades resulted in quality and improvements. For a spanking new 5th generation fighter you need to create that infrastructure from scratch. Its not a question of "will they eventually do it", its a question of "how quickly they are likely to do it" especially considering their economic outlook over the next 5 or so years. When the program was conceived they had some very aggressive plans..When they began the project after the Sukhoi down-select in 2002 they still were tracking as per that plan. they have since been question marks raised as to how many they will acquire over the next 5-10 years or so. Its not simply a factor of handing off 20 delivery slots to India because RuAF can't afford them in the short term..What you have to account for is that it takes a sizable investment to create the production capacity for a brand new stealth fighter that at the moment has literally hand made prototypes in the air. You still need timely investments to create the 100-120+ aircraft production capacity between FY2018 and FY 2025 (A 7 year period that would require something like a capacity of 15-20 aircraft per year.

As I said all that is contingent on a smooth weapons system testing..At the moment I see no indication that they have started clearing ordinance internally..it takes time when you have to clear all that stuff with the mission systems especially when some of your critical weapons are themselves new and not legacy.

tushar_m · Post by **tushar_m** » 11 Aug 2015 17:17

"In November 2009, KnAAPO started manufacturing the first serial aircraft; Sukhoi estimated that 24 to 30 aircraft would be produced each year from 2010 to 2020."

just to get sense of production capacity.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 17:22

^ Has that been achieved was my question earlier. Data on actual su-35 production volumes is very hard to find. I'll keep on looking.

tushar_m · Post by **tushar_m** » 11 Aug 2015 17:27

Whats the Russians are lacking right now is $$$$ . The infrastructure & production capacity need be be built for total of say 65+55 aircraft to be produced before 2020 but are we forgetting that there are many commonalities between the sub systems of Russians aircraft's.

The major problem would be Engine for production of say 120 fighters before 2020 but we know that current engine 117s is already in production & working on Su35. The radar is also in working condition & being tested. Most of the internal systems are being used on Su35 already & any small customization for IAF could be taken from Su30mki for these 65 fighters , We assume that the software or the internal structure of the aircraft will remain bit compatible with each other since the Agency that designed it are same.We can assume that IAF will except 117s as engine for PAK-FA & would push for better engine on FGFA.

We can't assume that we order these 65 unit's today & start inducting them tomorrow but 5 years is a long period. This period is specially important because every country in Asia is gearing up their armed forces. The IAF must be in a hurry to get 5th gen fighter before or in time when china start inducting their j20/j31 in numbers.

tushar_m · Post by **tushar_m** » 11 Aug 2015 17:32

The total orders for Su35 was 48 unites that will be delivered in 2015.

The statement made by KnAAPO was a reflection of their ability to produce these many fighters.
We are well aware of the fact that no company will increase production to fullest without firm orders.

We are actually discussing a separate issue of production when we have still not discussed that whether IAF is willing to get these 65(or so) planes from Russia directly. if "yes" then in which configuration, If "No" then the news is fake.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Aug 2015 17:32

NRao wrote:And how can they do anything on "PMF" when the R&D had not even started?

IIRC, the Russians have reduced their own order for the PAK-FA. So, where is the optimism coming from?

PMF is PAK-FA for now built for India and some prototypes will be tested here , the FGFA deal would be signed end of this year. HAL chief said that 2-3 prototypes will be tested in India.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 17:39

Whats the Russians are lacking right now is $$$$ . The infrastructure & production capacity need be be built for total of say 65+55 aircraft to be produced before 2020 but are we forgetting that there are many commonalities between the sub systems of Russians aircraft's.

Even the current serial production plans that Austin posted don't call for 60-65 aircrafts to be produced before or by 2020. There are prototypes of the PAKFA currently flying and the aircraft has yet to conclude its testing. The next stage aircraft with full stealth and other modifications has yet to fly, and I don't believe they have flown the full RAM'd up aircraft either. Its not at a maturity level from testing point of view yet.

It takes time to build a production process and ramp it up. 5 years is a very very short time when it comes to creating infrastructure from scratch and then ramping up production. This would be aggressive even for a new 4th generation program if you were to start from scratch TODAY, let alone something that requires extensive automation for quality control reasons as you would if you were trying to put together a stealth aircraft.

The total orders for Su35 was 48 unites that will be delivered in 2015.

The statement made by KnAAPO was a reflection of their ability to produce these many fighters.
We are well aware of the fact that no company will increase production to fullest without firm orders.

Yes, from an established production line and for an aircraft that has completed its testing and is itself an evolution of the proven and KNOWN flanker family that Russia has been producing for ages. The T-50 exists as only prototypes with an incremental plan of building more "production representative" prototypes till a point where they will firm up a definitive "STAGE" so that that configuration eventually reaches serial production upon design freeze. Then there is a question of completing flight testing and clearing weapons that are meant for this aircraft, that have yet to be even certified for the older flankers let alone the T-50. It will take time. If everything goes as per plan, the earliest the IAF (even with investments into the production capacity over and above the FGFA R&D plan) can in my opinion get a first squadron would be the early 2020's...The 2025-2030 time period is more realistic for a couple of operational squadrons and anything before 2022-2023 is going to be an extremely impressive program!. The Program is into its 13th year post bureau down-select and there are still single digit prototypes flying. I believe the RuAF took control of these prototypes just recently (or will soon) so there is quite a lot of testing still to do. New engines, better RAM and testing all of that will obviously be incrementally brought into the prototypes but I assume here that initial orders can eb placed without knowing the full details and working that into the FGFA production.

From what I can tell based on news-releases is that Russia's modernization plans involve procuring Su-30's, Su-35's, and even Mig-35s at some point in time towards the end of the decade. T-50 does factor in but they will need to make the hard investments into creating the "economy' for it through a production line and developing processes of producing a modern 5th generation fighter. Once those investments are made for a SET capacity they can play around with numbers so as to offload some excess capacity to other customers if the Russian budget does not allow them to procure those. But if they drop their plans of 55 by 2020 to 30 by 2020 they still have to make significant investments to create the capacity for 55 by 2020..Thats still a significant ramp and someone has to pay for that ramp rate and sustain it for out years.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Aug 2015 17:54

Increase in ramp rates is a factor of what the Russians commit to the program over and above what is planned

All that is true. However, the RuAF has reduced their order. So, where does talk of a ramp up come from. The way I see it all is that the product rate will be kept the same, the RuAF will accept a smaller number and to maintain a healthy production rate they will make planes for the IAF. The rate based on orders for the RuAF would have been unsustainable.

PMF is PAK-FA for now built for India and some prototypes will be tested here , the FGFA deal would be signed end of this year. HAL chief said that 2-3 prototypes will be tested in India.

A lot of confusion. First you post PMF = FGFA and now PMF is PAK-FA. PAK-FA is not FGFA as far as I know - two totally different animals.

Again , is there a source or is this your assumption (which is OK if it).

The way I see it is that the IAF will get a copy of the PAK-FA - perhaps tweaked for India. But, FGFA is not even on the horizon. I really do not see it coming either. It will take 8 years ago signing. Signature will take another year - at least. My feel is that it is too late for a foreign plane.

{I thought Mr. P renamed FGFA to PMF (for whatever reason)}

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Aug 2015 18:03

tushar_m wrote:The news states 2-3 things

1. We will get 3 sqds of 60-65 fighters directly from Russia in shot term (say before 2020).

2. Further orders for this type of fighter can come in the form of FGFA(Indian version) & not PAK-FA.

"New Delhi has suggested to Moscow that the T-50 fighter jet can be supplied to the IAF, while the research to improve upon the aircraft can carry on simultaneously."

This news if true will come as a boost for IAF as we will get 3 sqds of 5th Gen fighters in few years while FGFA matures for production in India

Earlier plan would have seen only a few planes from Russia while HAL works on FGFA & starts production after 2020-2022.

Su-30 deal all over again.
Russian aircraft - Su-30 MK of various flavors and then Russian MKI of various Mks. Finally license made at HAL with TOT.

AMCA for local R&D and actual knawlijj.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 18:15

All that is true. However, the RuAF has reduced their order. So, where does talk of a ramp up come from

Reduced orders still require a ramp. Crawl before walk kind of a thing. If you are buying say 25 instead of 55 by 2020, you still need to go from 5 per year to 10-12 otherwise you are not reaching your optimum production cost targets. When production processes and lines are set up there is a ramp associated with it that is based on a few things but primarily how quickly you want and at what volume, and what your overall goal from a procurement side of thing is. So if there is a requirement for say 25 by 2020, 100 by 2025 and 200 by 2030 you need to hit that through a gradual ramp in production. As the data presented by Austin suggests they are looking to hit FULL series by 2019..what that FULL series means depends upon how many they'll buy and then again there are incremental investments required to build capacity as you up your demand. So it could be as low as 15 per year or as high as 100 per year but when you move up you need time to build capacity all the way down to your smallest supplier. It takes time therefore for the production folks what is more important is the overall demand for the aircraft and they will design their surge plans as per that demand..Of course you still have to fund the ramp rates..

The entire thing is contingent upon completion of testing, nailing down a frozen final "STAGE" and making the hard investments required to produce the aircraft in a time bound manner. Its a capacity issue and someone has to pay for that capacity even though they may not procure to that capacity but may offload some of it to partners or export customers.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Aug 2015 19:03

If you are buying say 25 instead of 55 by 2020, you still need to go from 5 per year to 10-12 otherwise you are not reaching your optimum production cost targets

Absolutely.

However, that simple logic is the crux of my argument. IMVVVHO, the "optimum production cost targets" - I suspect - is FAR greater than even what the RuAF considered in the first order (prior to reducing it). Now that they have reduced the order the circumstances have become very, very dire - in fact non sustainable (unless you are French). 55 over 5 years was at around 10 per year. With the reduced order the rate has slid to some 7 a year!!!!

The Russians seem to have a calculator that is all goofed up (see their thinking with the frigates, where they assumed they could rather easily sell three to India and therefore ordered six!!). I bet they just went ahead and assumed that India would fall for the FGFA, pay $5.0, then $5.5 and then $6.0 billion for R&D alone and another $25 billion for whatever planes.

Well, India paid some millions and said nyet.

So, teh subsidy they were expecting is not there. Oil prices are slippery as ever. Things are just not going their way - (sad).

Which is why I see these 65 planes as a life saver for Sukhoi. The way I see it: 65 + 35 = 100/5 = 20 PAK-FA per year. They can claim that their supply chain, etc will survive (and may claim it will thrive), but after 5 years what happens? Parts, in Russian, is a bad word. Add to that - as someone posted above - IAF has not even been close to this plane. I liek the plane, will up the IAF count, etc, but seems like there is a dead rat around too - which is why I classify it as a political deal.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Aug 2015 19:04

NRao wrote:A lot of confusion. First you post PMF = FGFA and now PMF is PAK-FA. PAK-FA is not FGFA as far as I know - two totally different animals.

PMF/FGFA is HAL designation for the program , Sukhoi own designation for it is Type 79L , Even the radars have their own designation N079 radar (a Russian-Indian equivalent of Russia’s N036 radar).

It should be clear by now that the first 1-2 squadron for India will be T-50/PMF couple of prototypes will be tested in India by Indian pilots , The definative version FGFA/PMF/Type 79L built to Indian specification/standards not sure if it will be twin seater but likely will start induction by 2023 as IAF chief has said so.

It would take a lot of effort to get a squadron raised even for the initial PMF , check the squadron induction time line for Su-30 and even our own Tejas , Flight manuals would be written , Pilots trained , Maintanece procedures ,tactics etc would be worked out all the big small nitty gritty of raising squadron will be done with the first two squadron that IAF gets its not a trivial task to put it lightly

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 19:19

NRao wrote:
If you are buying say 25 instead of 55 by 2020, you still need to go from 5 per year to 10-12 otherwise you are not reaching your optimum production cost targets
Absolutely.

However, that simple logic is the crux of my argument. IMVVVHO, the "optimum production cost targets" - I suspect - is FAR greater than even what the RuAF considered in the first order (prior to reducing it). Now that they have reduced the order the circumstances have become very, very dire - in fact non sustainable (unless you are French). 55 over 5 years was at around 10 per year. With the reduced order the rate has slid to some 4 a year!!!!

The Russians seem to have a calculator that is all goofed up (see their thinking with the frigates, where they assumed they could rather easily sell three to India and therefore ordered six!!). I bet they just went ahead and assumed that India would fall for the FGFA, pay $5.0, then $5.5 and then $6.0 billion for R&D alone and another $25 billion for whatever planes.

Well, India paid some millions and said nyet.

So, teh subsidy they were expecting is not there. Oil prices are slippery as ever. Things are just going their way - (sad).

Which is why I see these 65 planes as a life saver for Sukhoi. The way I see it: 65 + 35 = 100/5 = 20 PAK-FA per year. They can claim that their supply chain, etc will survive (and may claim it will thrive), but after 5 years what happens? Parts, in Russian, is a bad word. Add to that - as someone posted above - IAF has not even been close to this plane. I liek the plane, will up the IAF count, etc, but seems like there is a dead rat around too - which is why I classify it as a political deal.

Everything is speculative because they are yet to place a multi year batch contract for any amount. We can make a better estimate/guess when Russia signs up for its initial order, at the moment there are conflicting reports on what quantity they will get by 2020 and not much is known about production plans between 2020 to 2030. Anyhow the point was (As Austin rightly puts it) no one is getting 65 aircraft by 2020, not the Russians, definitely not the IAF (and not both of them combined either). As I said a likely scenario is first squadron in 2022-2023 with a highly likely time period for the first couple of operational squadrons around the middle of next decade. FGFA serial production in India around that period as well with ramp rates determined by how extensive the TOT is and how quickly HAL can get a grip on 5th generation aircraft production. Don't expect optimum per annum production rates in india before 2027 or so. Absorbing a lot of technology and production process (that itself is a work in progress) takes time.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 11 Aug 2015 19:32

Why should we give order for 65 aircraft ie around USD 6.5 Billion dollars without IOC or FOC while LCA is struggling at 40 aircraft order of USD 800-1200 million inspite of obtaining IOC and being within reach of FOC.

tushar_m · Post by **tushar_m** » 11 Aug 2015 20:54

Russian Defense Ministry to Sign Major Contract for Purchase of Su-35 Jets

The Russian Defense Ministry and the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) will sign a contract for the delivery of 48 Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft (NATO reporting name Flanker-E) at the MAKS-2015 air show in late August, local media reported Tuesday.

According to the Vedomosti newspaper citing defense and industry sources, the contract may amount to 100 billion rubles ($1.6 billion at current exchange rate).
Earlier this year, Russian media reported that the Sukhoi aircraft manufacturer, a subsidiary of UAC, was planning on transferring 14 Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Defense Ministry this year.
According to military expert Konstantin Makienko cited by Vedomosti, this deal will be the largest one for the Russian Air Force since 2012, when it signed contracts for the delivery of 92 Su-34 bombers and 60 Su-30SM fighter jets.

Russia's Su-35 fighter was first introduced to a foreign audience at the 2013 Paris Air Show as a "4++ generation" heavily-upgraded derivative of the Su-27 multirole fighter.
The MAKS-2015 international aviation and space show will be held in the town of Zhukovsky near Moscow on August 25-30.

http://asian-defence-news.blogspot.in/2 ... major.html

They are focusing on Su35 for now

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Aug 2015 20:58

And that is most likely due to the significantly higher capital expenditure required to take the PAKFA post test-completion and transition it into a long term sustained serial production program. Remember the sukhoi 27 family including the very advanced versions leveraged the infrastructure, training and support at the sub-contractor level from the hard investments made over the decades but primarily during the Soviet Union. 5th generation aircraft and particularly the tolerances required for advanced low-observable/stealth airframes would require a significant capital investment to develop and build automation and production capability to kick start serial production at a decent per annum production volume. Given the current economic condition and what is expected over the next 5 years they are going to be spending money on the Su-35 and possibly Mig-35 and slow down the pace of the T-50 until better economic conditions permit investments into all key modernization priorities. Unless Putin's Russia goes into Soviet Union mode they will not be able to to meet each and every modernization priority given the current economic outlook and therefore would adjust and prioritize based on cost-effectiveness.

srai · Post by **srai** » 11 Aug 2015 21:16

Gyan wrote:Why should we give order for 65 aircraft ie around USD 6.5 Billion dollars without IOC or FOC while LCA is struggling at 40 aircraft order of USD 800-1200 million inspite of obtaining IOC and being within reach of FOC.

That's the sad part. There seems to be money and support available when foreign products are involved even when they are no where near ready but not the same when it comes to indigenous products. Mirage-2000, MiG-29, Su-30K, etc. ... déjà vu!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Aug 2015 03:33

Russia's T-50 Aircraft Struggling to Take Flight, But Older Su-35 Surging

Redux?

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 12 Aug 2015 04:06

NRao wrote:Russia's T-50 Aircraft Struggling to Take Flight, But Older Su-35 Surging

Redux?

Finis!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Aug 2015 04:54

Does anyone know if the Russians propose to solve the stealth issue with the rear of this plane?

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Aug 2015 07:21

There

srai wrote:
Gyan wrote:Why should we give order for 65 aircraft ie around USD 6.5 Billion dollars without IOC or FOC while LCA is struggling at 40 aircraft order of USD 800-1200 million inspite of obtaining IOC and being within reach of FOC.
That's the sad part. There seems to be money and support available when foreign products are involved even when they are no where near ready but not the same when it comes to indigenous products. Mirage-2000, MiG-29, Su-30K, etc. ... déjà vu!

While this may seem the case, I dont believe it is that bad...the only indigenous fighter around is the tejas, and it is hardly going to be a substitute for a gen 5 bird, until india is comfortably producing amca types, pakfa is the best bet in town.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 12 Aug 2015 07:32

Cain Marko wrote:While this may seem the case, I dont believe it is that bad...the only indigenous fighter around is the tejas, and it is hardly going to be a substitute for a gen 5 bird, until india is comfortably producing amca types, pakfa is the best bet in town.

Not if we're required to reimburse Russia for their development expenditure. And that's exactly what this whole PMF/FGFA business is leading up to. Not to mention, it'll cripple us when it comes to negotiating terms for the actual aircraft buy, given that we'll be utterly devoid of leverage.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Aug 2015 08:12

Viv S wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:While this may seem the case, I dont believe it is that bad...the only indigenous fighter around is the tejas, and it is hardly going to be a substitute for a gen 5 bird, until india is comfortably producing amca types, pakfa is the best bet in town.
Not if we're required to reimburse Russia for their development expenditure. And that's exactly what this whole PMF/FGFA business is leading up to. Not to mention, it'll cripple us when it comes to negotiating terms for the actual aircraft buy, given that we'll be utterly devoid of leverage.

But this is unlikely in a direct purchase of 65 birds...we will have to pay for the bird one way or another, so long as the cost per unit stays competitive vs. Other imports, which I'm sure it will write comfortably, we should be fine. Basically, what I see here is the mki model with more indian inputs, and that is a lot more than we could get importing from anywhere else.

Frankly, I don't think we can model the defence trade with Russia in the same way as with others, which is more commercial. The process may seem convoluted, but the end results are often satisfactory.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 12 Aug 2015 09:35

If Russia is ok with Su-35 then there is no reason we cannot order 130 LCA and 65 Su-30 MKI for price of 65 IMPORTFA and another 36 Su-30 MKI and 72 LCA for price of Importfails err Refails. I think additional 101 Su-30 MKI and 202 LCA are good enough till we develop AURA and AMCA.