China Military Watch - August 9, 2014

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 27 May 2015 18:09

Even the J-20 bears a resemblance to MiG's 1.44 program.

I wouldn't be surprised if MiG hawked that design/planform to the Chinese and the Russian Govt said ok as Sukhoi had its PAK-FA going on.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 27 May 2015 19:08

Alleged Photos of Shenyang's Twin fuselage unmanned vehicle

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 27 May 2015 19:30

^These days the chinese are getting lazy with their hazy/behind the bushes kind of pics

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 27 May 2015 21:33

Arun Menon wrote:^These days the chinese are getting lazy with their hazy/behind the bushes kind of pics

LOL..Another picture

wig · Post by **wig** » 01 Jun 2015 12:30

China’s new military strategy sets fresh ‘markers’ for India

A Chinese white paper on military strategy sets new ‘markers’ for India’s long-term politico-military strategy — of ensuring peace along the disputed un-demarcated 3,488-km-long frontier with China and smooth facilitation of its east-going trade through contested waters of the South China Sea.
The white paper, outlining a ‘strategic guideline for active defence’ and ‘building of Chinese armed forces’, was released by the Chinese Ministry of National Defence on May 26 in Beijing. The Chinese document lists security of overseas interests concerning energy and resources and strategic sea lines of communication (SLOCs) as an imminent issue. The SLOC, carrying some 70 per cent of trade and oil of China, pass by the Indian coast. New Delhi dominates the northern edge of the vital straits of Mallaca and Beijing is edgy about it.
For India, this means China would increase its ship and submarine patrols in the Indian Ocean. The white paper says the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will gradually shift its focus towards “open seas protection,” and enhance its capabilities for strategic deterrence and counterattack. It will continue regular combat readiness patrols and maintain a military presence in relevant sea areas.
This is being seen as a reference to the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. In the past few weeks, tensions have ratcheted up with the US and China warning each other over claims in the hydro-carbon rich South China Sea. As India has oil exploration blocks in the sea, any conflict will hit Indian economic interests.
On its land forces, the white paper says People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will continue to reorient to trans-theatre mobility and adapt itself to tasks in different regions. Indian officials are aware that the PLA practices rapid mobility across its military regions of Lanzhou and Chengdu bordering India, the last one being just a few weeks ago. It has a road and railway line running all along the Tibetan plateau abutting the northern side of the Himalayas. For Indian planners this will be new point to watch and look at building road and railways on our side.
Beijing’s document talks about effective use of nuclear and conventional missiles. The PLA Second Artillery Force (PLASAF) will strive to improve the force structure featuring a combination of both nuclear and conventional capabilities. “The PLASAF will strengthen its capabilities for strategic deterrence”.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation ... 87937.html

rkhanna · Post by **rkhanna** » 01 Jun 2015 12:47

Delete - wrong thread

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Jun 2015 16:50

Ha!Ha!Ha! The Chin*s don't like it when the missile is in the immortal words of Cpl. Jones of "Dad;s Army" fame,"don't like it up them sir!"?!
Splendid how the Russians have also sold the Chinese a lemon,not supplying their Kilos with the same missile variant,but sold it to China's enemies like us and Vietnam!

Submarines: China Objects To Getting Klubbed

May 31, 2015: China is making angru noises to the UN, Vietnam and Russia about the little publicized Russian sale of Klub submarine launched cruise missiles to Vietnam. China wasn’t happy about Russia selling Vietnam six Kilo class diesel electric submarines in 2009. Russia and Vietnam were quiet about the sale of 50 Klub missiles but the news eventually got out, in part because 28 of the Klub missiles have already been delivered, along with three of the Kilos. Another two Kilos are being delivered in 2015 and the last one will be completed in 2016 about the same time the rest of the Klub missiles arrive. Vietnam is one the many nations in the region threatened by Chinese claims to most of the South China Sea and given the long (over a thousand years) hostility between China and Vietnam, there is understandable fear that, even in defeat, Vietnam would use Klub missiles for one last attack on China.

The Russian 3M54 (also known as the SS-N-27, Sizzler or Klub) anti-ship missiles can also be aimed at targets on land and that’s what really bothers the Chinese. Klub is now used on Indian, Algerian and Vietnamese subs and is considered very effective. But it was not always that way. India (a major customer for the Klub) has feuded with the Russians in the past because of repeated failures of the Klub during six test firings in 2007. These missile tests were carried out off the Russian coast, using an Indian Kilo class submarine, INS Sindhuvijay. That boat had gone to Russia in 2006 for upgrades. India refused to pay for the upgrades, or take back the sub, until Russia fixed the problems with the missiles (which it eventually did).

Weighing two tons, and fired from a 533mm (21 inch) torpedo tube on a Kilo class sub, the 3M54 has a 200 kg (440 pound) warhead. The anti-ship version has a range of 300 kilometers, but speeds up to 3,000 kilometers an hour during its last minute or so of flight. There are also air launched and ship launched versions. The land attack version does away with the high speed final approach feature and that makes possible a larger 400 kg (880 pound) warhead.

What makes the 3M54 particularly dangerous when attacking ships is that during its final approach, which begins when the missile is about 15 kilometers from its target, the missile speeds up. Up to that point, the missile travels at an altitude of about 30 meters (a hundred feet). This makes the missile more difficult to detect. That plus the high speed final approach means that it covers that last fifteen kilometers in less than twenty seconds. This makes it more difficult for current anti-missile weapons to take it down.

The 3M54 Klub is similar to earlier, Cold War era Russian anti-ship missiles, like the 3M80 ("Sunburn") and P700 ("Shipwreck") which entered service at the end of the Cold War. These missiles are considered "carrier killers," but it's not known how many of them would have to hit a carrier to knock it out of action, much less sink it. Moreover, Russian missiles have little combat experience, and a reputation for erratic performance. Quality control was never a Soviet strength, but the Russians are getting better, at least in the civilian sector. The military manufacturers appear to have been slower to adapt. It is believed that Chinese warships have no effective defense against missile like Klub, which why they are so outspoken about Russia selling them to Vietnam.

The Kilos weigh 2,300 tons (surface displacement), have six torpedo tubes and a crew of 52. They can travel about 700 kilometers under water at a quiet speed of about five kilometers an hour. Top speed underwater is 32 kilometers an hour. Kilos carry 18 torpedoes or Klub anti-ship or cruise missiles (launched underwater from the torpedo tubes.) Kilos can stay at sea 45 days at a time. It can travel at periscope depth (using a snorkel device to bring in air) for 12,000 kilometers at 12 kilometers an hour. The combination of quietness and cruise missiles makes Kilo very dangerous to American carriers. North Korea, China, India, Indonesia, Romania, Algeria, Vietnam and Iran have also bought Kilos. The main reason for purchasing Kilos is that they cost about half what equivalent Western subs go for. Kilos are very similar to the world-standard diesel submarine, the 1800-ton German Type 209.

PS:Strat. is slightly off the mark.If one remembers correctly as it was a v.long time ago,the initial Klub failures were traced to an error aboard the sub's navigation complex/software problem,not one with the missile. Vietnam's 4th Kilo is now at sea on its delivery run while the 5th is undergoing sea trials in Russia,the last arriving next year.6 advanced model Kilos for just $2B.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Jun 2015 18:38

Pl. note the Chinese submariner admiral ,member of the "8 person PLA gen. staff HQ".Why 8 members?
8 is considered the luckiest of all numbers in China.

China Says It Could Set Up Air Defense Zone in South China Sea

By EDWARD WONGMAY 31, 2015
Adm. Sun Jianguo of China speaking on Sunday at a security conference in Singapore.

BEIJING — A Chinese admiral said Sunday that Beijing could set up an air defense zone above disputed areas of the South China Sea if it thought it was facing a large enough threat, according to Chinese news media.

Adm. Sun Jianguo, deputy chief of staff of the People’s Liberation Army, speaking at a regional security forum in Singapore, said that China had not definitely said it would create a so-called air defense identification zone, but that any decision would be based on an aerial threat assessment and the maritime security situation. He also said other nations should not overemphasize the issue.

The creation of an air defense zone would be viewed by the United States and Southeast Asian nations as a huge provocation. In recent years, foreign officials have speculated whether one of Beijing’s next moves in the South China Sea would be to set up such a zone, which would further solidify China’s military presence in the waters.

Adm. Sun Jianguo of China, left, and Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday. American officials made it clear that disputes in the South China Sea would not hinder nascent military cooperation with China.

Building of Islands Is Debated, but China and U.S. Skirt Conflict at TalksMAY 30, 2015

What seem to be Chinese dredging vehicles, in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, in an image from a surveillance video.

China Deployed Artillery on Disputed Island, U.S. SaysMAY 29, 2015
A Navy jet over the South China Sea. China says the flights violate its territorial sovereignty.
U.S. Flies Over a Chinese Project at Sea, and Beijing ObjectsMAY 22, 2015

In November 2013, to the dismay of Japan and the United States, China declared an air defense identification zone over disputed waters in the East China Sea. Chinese military aircraft began requiring all other aircraft flying through the zone to identify themselves, and commercial airliners complied, though the United States sent B-52 bombers through the zone without advance warning to challenge Beijing.

In late May, Chinese officials told the United States to stop sending surveillance flights near land formations that China claims as its territory. American officials say the flights have been over international waters.

Admiral Sun’s remarks came during a question-and-answer session after he delivered the main Chinese speech at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore. As at previous such meetings, much of the focus of the conference, which ended on Sunday, was on territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where China, Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations all have competing claims to waters, islands, reefs, shoals and sandbars. In recent weeks, the United States has criticized China for island-building and land reclamation efforts on disputed reefs and atolls that were uninhabited until recently.

In his address to the security conference on Saturday, Ashton B. Carter, the United States defense secretary, reiterated an earlier demand for China and other nations to stop such island-building. The United States has said that China is building much faster than any other nation and has completed 2,000 acres of land reclamation in the last 18 months. Vietnam and the Philippines have built structures on some land formations, but much of that construction took place before 2002, when China and rival claimants to territory signed a nonbinding agreement to cease any provocative activity in the region.

About a month ago, the United States military spotted a pair of mobile artillery vehicles on one of the new islands, but those soon vanished, American officials said last week. China has said its islands will be used for maritime aid as well as military defense.

“China and the Chinese military have never feared the devil or an evil force, and we are convinced by reason but not by hegemony,” Admiral Sun said on Sunday, according to a transcript of his speech posted by the Chinese Defense Ministry. “Don’t ever expect us to surrender to devious heresies or a mighty power. And don’t ever expect us to swallow the bitter fruits that would harm our sovereignty, security and development interests.”

He added that the United States was guilty of hypocrisy, since it had criticized China’s military deployment on the islands while its officials had, at the same time, said they would bring weapons of their own to bear on the regional situation.

China has maintained that its right to construction is based on its understanding that the territory belongs to China. On Saturday, Hua Chunying, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, released a long, six-point rebuttal to Mr. Carter’s statements, including some phrases that Admiral Sun also used, saying that “the U.S. side made inappropriate remarks on China’s longstanding sovereignty as well as rights and interests in the South China Sea to foment dissension and criticized China’s normal and justified construction activities on islands and reefs.”

Admiral Sun said Sunday that the situation in the South China Sea had been “peaceful and stable” and that there was no problem with freedom of navigation in the sea.

He added that China remained committed to resolving the disputes with its neighbors through talks. But China has long insisted that any such talks be undertaken bilaterally, not by more than two countries at a time.

“We can’t enter the 21st century with our bodies alone while leaving our heads in the past, under the limits of colonial expansionism, a Cold War mentality and a zero-sum game,” Admiral Sun said, adding that China wanted to promote “win-win cooperation.”

The United States and countries in the region say China’s actions are taking place at the expense of other nations’ interests and are jeopardizing diplomatic relations. Most notably, in May 2014, China placed an exploratory oil rig near the Vietnamese coast and off the shores of the Paracel Islands, land formations also claimed by Vietnam. That prompted daily clashes between Chinese Coast Guard vessels and Vietnamese boats, along with deadly rioting in Vietnamese cities against factories perceived to have Chinese owners and workers.

In a possible sign of the growing importance of the Chinese Navy, Admiral Sun was the first naval officer appointed to lead Beijing’s delegation to the Shangri-La Dialogue since China began attending in 2007. He was also the most senior military officer to lead the delegation since 2011.

Admiral Sun, 63, is the only naval officer in the current eight-person leadership of the People’s Liberation Army general staff headquarters, which oversees the navy. He joined the navy at age 16 and served for many years as a captain of both conventional and nuclear submarines, earning the nickname Iron Captain. In 1985, he commanded a crew for a voyage of 90 straight days on a nuclear submarine, breaking a record held by the American Navy, according to a report on the website of People’s Daily, the flagship Communist Party newspaper.

His submarine background dovetails with the growing emphasis of the Chinese military on open-water force projection. Last Tuesday, the Chinese military issued a strategy paper, its first in two years, that said it intended to project naval power in the open ocean in addition to defending coastal waters.

As the admiral was speaking, Mr. Carter left Singapore for Vietnam, where he spent the afternoon in Haiphong, the port city that is home to the country’s naval and Coast Guard headquarters. Mr. Carter visited both — becoming the first American defense secretary to do so — and went aboard a Vietnamese Coast Guard ship.

Speaking to reporters afterward, Mr. Carter said that the United States and Vietnam would sign a “joint vision statement” on Monday after he met with his counterpart in Hanoi. The purpose of the statement was to “modernize” the growing ties between the United States and Vietnam, Mr. Carter said, adding that the United States was also planning to give Vietnam $18 million to help buy patrol boats.

Mr. Carter said he and Vietnamese officials would also discuss an American proposal for an agreement among the countries claiming territory in the South China Sea that would halt all land reclamation efforts. But the emphasis of Mr. Carter’s comments was on the growing ties between the United States and Vietnam, not the issues that still divide them. “My whole trip here is a demonstration, I think, of how far our relationship has come over 20 years, let alone since before that,” he said. The two countries re-established formal diplomatic ties in 1995.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jun 2015 17:11

China developing new STOVL fighter for Navy, similar to America's F 35B aircraft

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Jun 2015 13:12

Yes,they allegedly stole (US reports) the entire secrets of the JSF Why they've been able to develop their own stealth fighters so soon! Anyway,their JSF-B equivs will be rust and toast accoding to this assessment of the PLAN's carriers and the PLAN's ASW defences.This reinforces the need for the IN to accelerate our own acquyisition of more Akulas (offered) in the interim,plus building our won SSNs which will however take at least 5-6 years before the first one arrives.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subc ... 0&cid=1101

US attack subs the primary threat to Liaoning carrier: Sina

Staff Reporter 2015-06-02
The USS Jimmy Carter, the third Seawolf-class attack submarine, is commissioned on Feb. 19, 2005. (Photo courtesy of the US Navy)

Without proper anti-submarine warfare capabilities, China could lose its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, to the US Navy's fleet of attack submarines, according to the Sina Military Network, a website covering defense news based in China.

The PLA Navy has spent years developing the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile against US aircraft carriers. However, the United States has its own carrier killer as well. The US Navy currently has three classes of attack submarines which are designed to damage and sink surface combat vessels. They would be able to seriously damage the Liaoning, China's only aircraft carrier which was commissioned in 2012.

The three types of US attack submarines patrolling the waters around the globe include the Los Angeles-class, Seawolf-class and Virginia-class. With a top speed of 33 knots underwater, a Los Angeles-class submarine can easily outpace China's Type 056 corvette designed to engage submarines, which only has a speed of 25 knots. The US Navy has a total number of 40 Los Angeles-class attack submarines, the Sina Military Network reported.

The US initially decided to produce 29 Seawolf-class submarines to replace the Los Angeles-class. Due to the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, however, the number was reduced to three. It is still a potential threat to Chinese aircraft carriers and other surface combat vessels however, since it can fire AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Equipped with a remote operated underwater vehicle, the Seawolf-class can even launch special forces including Navy SEALs against Chinese warships.

In addition, the US Navy has 11 Virginia-class attack subs. Like the Seawolf-class, it can fire Tomahawk cruise missiles and AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The construction and production of more Virginia-class submarines is continuing in the United States. Once the three classes of attack submarine are deployed to engage China in the South China Sea or Indian Ocean, the supply lines of the PLA Navy would be in great danger, according to the article.

http://www.defenseworld.net/news/13062/ ... W68asuJhjo

PLA Developing Lithium-ion Powered Submarines
Source : Our Bureau ~ Dated : Monday, June 1, 2015
China is developing submarines powered by a lithium-ion battery propulsion system as they offer higher energy density and longer dive times than old diesel submarines.

Chinese researchers see them as the "wave of the future," Andrew Erickson, a professor at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island was quoted as saying by Diplomat, Tokyo-based news magazine on May 28.

The PLA Navy is discussing putting lithium-ion batteries "on a new generation of conventional subs sometime between now and 2020, but there is no indicator as yet of the type of submarine that might be," Erickson added.

China is struggling to advance its submarine technology as it is lagging behind, when compared to west. The PLA's Type 095 nuclear submarine’s major structural weaknesses is the lack of propulsion engineering because most engines used in Chinese submarines are either based on imported foreign technology or built domestically under license.

The PLA needs submarines with reactors that are "efficient, long-lasting, reliable and quiet enough," Erickson said. He also added that it is the reason for China to equip them in their Song- and Yuan-class attack submarines.

Diesel submarines are stealthier than nuclear submarines because the former are specifically designed to minimize vibration and noise in order to evade sonar detection. However, China finds longer-lasting lithium-ion batteries could be the solution as it does not require submarines to come to the surface for recharging batteries.

The PLA Navy currently has five nuclear attack submarines, four nuclear ballistic missile submarines and 53 diesel attack submarines, the Pentagon's Office of Naval Intelligence said.

nits · Post by **nits** » 04 Jun 2015 12:12

PLA could blockade India with just 10 submarines: Sina

he People’s Liberation Army Navy could block India’s western and eastern coasts with just 10 submarines in the event of conflict in the Indian Ocean, according to the Sina Military Network website on June 2.

An article published last year claimed that a single attack submarine deployed to the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea could threaten the entire operations of the Indian Navy. It could even challenge the INS Vikramaditya, the former Russian aircraft carrier commissioned in 2013. This is a primary mission why India decided to build two additional carriers with the assistance of the United States, the piece said.

With the Indian Navy also adding more submarines to its fleet, the Sina Military Network concluded that the PLA’s three Type 091 Han-class, four Type 093 Shang-class and two Type 095 attack submarines are not sufficient for a total blockade of the subcontinent. However, it said it would not be necessary for the PLA Navy to block the country’s southern waters that are closer to the coast of Africa. In this case, about 10 attack submarines could suffice.

India has eight primary naval bases but only the three located in Mumbai, Karwar and Visakhapatnam are used for actual military operations. This being the case, the article said that even six nuclear-powered attack submarines are needed to block India’s major naval bases completely with two covering each base.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 04 Jun 2015 12:42

nits wrote:PLA could blockade India with just 10 submarines: Sina

he People’s Liberation Army Navy could block India’s western and eastern coasts with just 10 submarines in the event of conflict in the Indian Ocean, according to the Sina Military Network website on June 2.

An article published last year claimed that a single attack submarine deployed to the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea could threaten the entire operations of the Indian Navy. It could even challenge the INS Vikramaditya, the former Russian aircraft carrier commissioned in 2013. This is a primary mission why India decided to build two additional carriers with the assistance of the United States, the piece said.

With the Indian Navy also adding more submarines to its fleet, the Sina Military Network concluded that the PLA’s three Type 091 Han-class, four Type 093 Shang-class and two Type 095 attack submarines are not sufficient for a total blockade of the subcontinent. However, it said it would not be necessary for the PLA Navy to block the country’s southern waters that are closer to the coast of Africa. In this case, about 10 attack submarines could suffice.

India has eight primary naval bases but only the three located in Mumbai, Karwar and Visakhapatnam are used for actual military operations. This being the case, the article said that even six nuclear-powered attack submarines are needed to block India’s major naval bases completely with two covering each base.

this is so ridiculous it really doesn't deserve comment especially in light of India's P-8i program.

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 05 Jun 2015 11:26

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-bu ... ship-13043

China's Testing Asia's Largest Warship

June 4, 2015
China is getting prepared to test what Asia’s largest surface warship since World War II, new satellite data reveals.

On Thursday, Popular Science’s terrific Eastern Arsenal blog reports, citing new satellite images, that China’s “Type 055 cruiser test rig in Wuhan is well on its way to opening for business.”

Photos of the test rig first appeared on Chinese internet in April of last year. January 2015 images showed the rig nearing completion. According to Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer, who together author the Eastern Arsenal blog, the Type 055 rig is “a rough approximation of the actual cruiser, with enough physical similarity to help training crew for procedures like helicopter landings and layout familiarization.”

They also note that the rig has been equipped with electronics and sensors, to help Chinese sailors to familiarize themselves with those aspects of the ship.

Lin and Singer go on to note that, based on the size of the rig, Type 055 cruisers will have a length of 160-180 meters, a width of 21-23 meters, and displace between 12,000-14,000 tons. At that displacement, the Type 055 cruisers will be the largest surface warship built in Asia since Imperial Japan produced Tone-class heavy cruisers during the Second World War.

Regarding its mission, Lin and Singer note that “the Type 055 cruiser is expected to command Chinese taskforces, act as the center of fleet air defenses against enemy air attacks, escort carrier groups and launch barrages of land attack and anti-ship missiles to project Chinese airpower.”

For these purposes, the Type 055 cruiser will have a helicopter pad and an incredible 112-128 vertical launch systems (VLS) cells for missiles. By way of comparison, the U.S. Navy’s Ticonderoga-class Aegis Cruisers have about 122 VLS cells.

The Type 055 cruiser’s VLS cells could be loaded with a variety of Chinese missiles, including the new YJ-18 anti-ship missile, HQ-9 long range surface to air missile, and the CJ-1000 land attack cruise missile. This would allow the cruiser to perform a diverse array of missions, from projecting power on land to protecting an aircraft carrier to waging naval warfare.

Previously, Chinese media outlets have said that the Type 055 will displace 12,000 tons and carry 128 missiles. They have also said that it could eventually carry laser weapons.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 08 Jun 2015 02:32

Ominous Signs of Conflict Brewing Between China and India

What else has China been up to lately, besides annexing disputed islands in the South China Sea and raiding U.S. government computer systems? First Post of India worries that China might be contemplating a “short border war with India, as in 1962.”

China has told India it is “not interested in clearly delineating a line of actual control (LAC) on the border, pending a final settlement,” according to First Post. “This shows that it wants to change the status quo and take some territory from us. No willingness to agree on the LAC means China will not settle the border except on its terms.”

Those terms include blocking Indian development in both the Chinese and Pakistani-controlled portions of the Kashmir region, as well as the South China Sea, where China has been throwing around so much weight lately. China seems fond of a two-stage tactic for annexing disputed areas: Prevent other parties from making any practical use of the area, then suddenly drop a huge amount of Chinese construction on them.

First Post comes close to blaming China for stirring up terrorist violence in disputed areas as well. “Yesterday (4 June), 18 armymen were killed in an ambush in Manipur, and last month a similar attack took place in Nagaland, where eight Assam Rifles jawans being killed. While there may be no direct China hand in this resurgence of terrorism (or, at least, none that we know of), ask yourself a simple question: who benefits the most from bringing the North-East back to boiling point? It suits China to keep our army tied up in various insurgencies, especially when Indo-Bangladesh ties are improving and Sheikh Hasina has taken a strong line on containing anti-India forces.”

Toss in a few border incursions by Chinese troops, who even indulged in a bit of vandalism while roaming around on the wrong side of the border, and “there are good reasons to believe that China may not be beyond contemplating another short war with India.”

“We should be on an extraordinary alert for Chinese war signals, preparations or indications of hostile intent,” First Post advises the Indian government, noting that China has incentives to force such a confrontation sooner rather than later, because the Indian military is beginning to reduce its huge deficit of power against the People’s Liberation Army. India’s strengthening ties with regional allies such as Vietnam and Japan must be considered as well. If China wants to spark up, contain, and swiftly conclude a limited border conflict, it will want to act soon.

“China’s calculations could revolve around a quick surgical strike to capture Tawang — despite adverse terrain — or a bigger grab in Kashmir to use as a bargaining chip to gain Tawang,” the article speculates. “It may also be betting that India will not fight too hard for Tawang or threaten nuclear mayhem in retaliation. India has made the mistake of not developing tactical nuclear weapons unlike Pakistan, which will have no qualms about using them if we make territorial gains on the western front.”

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Jun 2015 09:22

Japan to return to the Phillipines! How history repeats itself.

Will give them an opportunity to recover more of the trillions poof $$$ worth of loot they vacuumed out pf the Asian countries conquered during WW2,hidden in secret stashes in 100+ locations in the Phillipines.US presidents,CIA generals,etc. are alleged to have shared the loot stashed in gold bullion mainly in Swiss banks/vaults. Gen.McArthur was sent to Japan primarily to bargain with the Japanese elite,aristocracy and underworld (Hirohito's wartime record whitewashed),in exchange for $billions upon $billions. Op "Golden Lily"-the looting of Asia was headed by his first cousin,Chchibu .Gen.Tojo took the rap for Japan's wartime crimes and the emperor,his retinue and the zaibatsu got off scot free (at a cost)!

Japanese troops may use naval, air bases in Philippines
Tokyo, | 05 June, 2015

Read more at http://www.thestatesman.com/news/world/ ... xtQTHAO.99

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 08 Jun 2015 10:57

the Japanese already have vast holdings in the Philippines such as banana plantations, mining, and agricultural enterprises. the Philippines are a major suppllier of food stuff and other natural materials to Japan. In short, the Japanese already employ a lot of people in the Philippines. So what's the big deal?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 10 Jun 2015 22:12

We should be on an extraordinary alert for Chinese war signals, preparations or indications of hostile intent,” First Post advises the Indian government, noting that China has incentives to force such a confrontation sooner rather than later, because the Indian military is beginning to reduce its huge deficit of power against the People’s Liberation Army. India’s strengthening ties with regional allies such as Vietnam and Japan must be considered as well. If China wants to spark up, contain, and swiftly conclude a limited border conflict, it will want to act soon.

Curiously omitted is the developing India/US partnership. Even speculation of carrier/EMALS technology transfer to India indicates transformational change in the power equations in Asia. I have been making the case for a while that China needs to demonstrate its unrivaled power over India whilst the delta economy/military capabilities is still in its favour.

Growth rates, new mountain strike forces and convergence with US interests and a nationalistic government will make for a critical 2-3 years. There is a testing of India coming.

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 12 Jun 2015 17:29

http://freebeacon.com/national-security ... e-vehicle/

China Conducts Fourth Test of Wu-14 Strike Vehicle
‘Extreme maneuvers’ used in latest high-speed warhead test

BY: Bill Gertz Follow @BillGertz
June 11, 2015 5:00 am

China this week carried out the fourth test of an ultra high-speed nuclear delivery vehicle that conducted what intelligence officials say were extreme maneuvers.

The test of the Wu-14 hypersonic strike vehicle was carried out Sunday, launched atop a ballistic missile fired from a test facility in western China.

It was the fourth successful test of the Wu-14 in the past 18 months and the frequency of tests is being viewed by U.S. intelligence analysts as an indicator of the high priority placed on developing the weapon by the Chinese.

Earlier tests took place last year on Jan. 9, Aug. 7, and Dec. 2. The Washington Free Beacon first reported the tests.

The new strike vehicle is considered a high-technology strategic weapon capable of delivering nuclear or conventional warheads while traveling on the edge of space. One of its key features is the ability to maneuver to avoid U.S. missile defenses.

The Wu-14 was assessed as traveling up to 10 times the speed of sound, or around 7,680 miles per hour.

Unlike earlier tests, the latest test demonstrated what one official called “extreme maneuvers” that appeared to analysts designed for penetrating through missile defense systems.

Current U.S. missile defenses are limited to knocking out missiles and their warheads with predictable ballistic trajectories that can be tracked with relative ease by satellite sensors and ground and sea radar.

However, the Wu-14 threatens to neutralize U.S. strategic missile defenses with the unique capability of flying at ultra high speeds and maneuvering to avoid detection and tracking by radar and missile defense interceptors.

The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency has repeatedly declined to comment on whether current U.S. missile defenses can defeat maneuvering targets.

A congressional China commission stated in a report published in November that China is working on hypersonic arms as “a core component of its next-generation precision strike capability.”

“Hypersonic glide vehicles could render existing U.S. missile defense systems less effective and potentially obsolete,” the report said.

In addition to the glide vehicle, China also is developing a second hypersonic weapon the uses a high-technology scramjet engine.

The Pentagon and China’s defense ministry confirmed the earlier tests. Asked about the latest test, however, Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Jeff Pool declined to comment on the test, citing a policy of not discussing intelligence matters.

However, specialists on China’s military buildup say the latest test is another significant milestone for Chinese long-range strike capabilities.

“With four tests in about a year and a half, it is possible that China could conclude development of an early version for deployment in one to two years,” said Rick Fisher, a China expert with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.

Former Pentagon official Mark Stokes, also a China weapons specialist, said the People’s Liberation Army and China’s space and missile industry have been conducting engineering design work on a boosted hypersonic glide vehicle for some time.

“Certification of the design requires prototype testing of the post boost vehicle, which is probably what’s going on,” said Stokes, now with the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank.

“Fielding of a hypersonic glide vehicle would advance the PLA’s ability to hold U.S. targets at risk, as well as those of allies and partners,” Stokes added.

Lora Saalman, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, the latest Wu-14 test indicates the weapon is a high priority.

“This test is keeping in line with China’s fast-tracking of this program and efforts to expand not just the range but also the capabilities and maneuverability of the system,” she said.

Fisher said he suspects an early version of the Wu-14 will be launched atop a DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile, although in the future it would be carried by the 2,485-mile range DF-26.

“Perhaps the most important U.S. antidote for China’s hypersonic maneuvering warhead is U.S. energy weapons programs,” Fisher said.

“There is an urgent need to increase funding to accelerate the early deployment of rail gun weapons.”

Rail guns fire shotgun-style pellets at hypersonic speeds that create pellet clouds that can be used to damage or destroy Chinese hypersonic warheads.

“It is urgent that the U.S. speed the deployment of rail guns to defend aircraft carriers, large combat ships, and major U.S. military facilities in Asia,” he said.

“The U.S. also needs to accelerate the development of its own hypersonic weapons, ground, air, and sea-launched, to deter China’s use of these weapons.”

The current House version of the fiscal 2016 defense authorization bill calls for the Pentagon to conduct advanced technology war games, including those involving hypersonic strike systems.

The bill includes $291 million for an extended-range variant of Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile defense system to deal with hypersonic threats.

“The committee is aware of the rapidly evolving threat from potential adversaries’ development of hypersonic weapons,” the report on the bill says, noting China’s several recent tests.

“The [Armed Services] committee believes this rapidly emerging capability could be a threat to national security and our operational forces,” the report said.

The Army has conducted two tests of its Advanced Hypersonic Weapon and in the latest test the missile launcher blew up shortly after liftoff.

The committee called on the military to develop hypersonic targets to improve U.S. defenses.

A Chinese Embassy spokesman did not return an email seeking comment.

In the past, China’s government has called the hypersonic tests normal military experiments.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Jun 2015 16:05

Beijing's first-ever deployment of a submarine to Pakistan signals a new cat-and-mouse game in the Indian Ocean

China tests new waters

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 15 Jun 2015 23:25

Is the PLAN scrapping the Sovremenny ? It looks all the weapons been removed.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Jun 2015 13:26

ONI Reveals Massive Chinese Naval Buildup

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 18 Jul 2015 17:02

China begins building of world's largest sea plane - PTI

China has started assembling the world's largest amphibious aircraft which it plans to deploy in the disputed South China Sea besides aggressively marketing it abroad.

China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Co which is developing the aircraft has received 17 domestic orders for what will be the world's largest sea plane, state-run China Daily reported today.

China started assembling its first domestically developed seaplane, which is expected to capture a big share in the international market, the report said.

Powered by four turboprop engines, it will be the world's largest amphibious aircraft, surpassing Japan's ShinMaywa US-2 and Russia's Beriev Be-200, Huang Lingcai, the chief designer of the plane said.

India plans to buy Japanese sea planes to counter-balance Chinese Navy' growing might in blue waters.

The Chinese plane will have a maximum takeoff weight of 53.5 tons and an operational range of about 4,500 kilometers.

China has decommissioned all of its seaplanes - reportedly as many as five SH-5 maritime patrol amphibious aircraft, he said.

"Since the first day of its development, the AG-600 has been designed for the global market. We are confident in its market prospects because the aircraft's overall specifications, such as the maximum takeoff weight and flight range, are better than other amphibious planes in the world," Qu Jingwen, general manager of the firm said.

"Some countries with many islands, such as Malaysia and New Zealand, have expressed interest in the AG-600, and we are in contact with them," he said yesterday in Zhuhai, at a ceremony marking the start of assembly.

The aircraft maker has received 17 orders from domestic companies.

One of the buyers will use it to carry tourists to reefs and islands in the South China Sea, he said.

China has maritime dispute with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan over the South China Sea. AG-600 will play an important role in forest fire control, maritime search and rescue, personnel and supply transport and law enforcement tasks at sea, Huang said.

He said that the plane can fly a round trip between Sanya in Hainan province and the shoal of Zengmu Ansha, the southernmost point of China's territory, without refuelling.

The AG-600 can carry 50 people during a maritime search and rescue mission.

To extinguish forest fires, it can take on 12 metric tons of water from a lake or sea within 20 seconds and pour it on the fire.

The project was launched in September 2009. The aircraft's debut flight is planned for the first half of next year, Leng Yixun, director of general aviation products at AVIC, said the company estimates China will need at least 100 seaplanes over the next 15 years.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Jul 2015 19:40

the sinic PBY1 catalina....these could be useful to snoop around at long range ducking below radar cover and also doing mil work posing as a civilian csar registration.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 18 Jul 2015 20:15

They will use it for all their mil-islands built out of coral reefs where building permanent air-strips is not going to be feasible. It will give them more squatting power whenever they feel like anywhere in the near pacific...maybe cocos too.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Jul 2015 22:15

JANES: Beijing tech show highlights advances in Chinese fighter sensors

http://www.janes.com/article/53064/beij ... er-sensors

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 21 Jul 2015 02:48

In a first, Chinese warship docks at Mumbai port

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 21 Jul 2015 03:31

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 145597.cms

Why India lags China in submarine race
By IANS | 20 Jul, 2015, 04.58PM ISTPost a Comment

Chinese Navy clearly ahead of India

India has 14 submarines -- including one nuclear attack submarine, INS Chakra, leased from Russia in 2012 for 10 years -- against China's 68 and Pakistan's five.

Most of India's conventional submarines are more than 20 years old and are reaching the end of their service life, according to this report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence (2014-15), which said it was "dismayed" at the "snails-pace" of commissioning naval vessels.

The Indian Navy has commissioned two submarines and de-commissioned five over the last 15 years, Defence Minister Manohar Parikkar said in a reply in the Rajya Sabha.

China launched or commissioned more than 60 naval ships and craft in 2014. A similar number is expected through the end of 2015.

The Indian Navy has 141 vessels, including 127 surface ships and 14 submarines. The Chinese Navy has more than 300 surface combatants, submarines, amphibious ships and missile-armed patrol craft.

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 21 Jul 2015 10:55

How will Indo-China shooting war affect NDB and AIIB ?
How will it affect Indo-China trade which is grossly in China's favour ?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Jul 2015 13:15

China is plugging the gap in its anti-submarine warfare in order to protect "the first island chain" where many of its naval and mainland targets are located, Stratfor reports.

Beijing is developing a maritime strategy aimed at protecting the first island chain which encircles the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea.

However, according to Stratfor, the People's Liberation Army still lacks the means to counter the threat posed by fast and evasive US nuclear submarines. (*and hopefully Indian in the next few years!)

Until recently China has been relying on Type 037 submarine chasers which are largely ineffective against modern deep diving nuclear submarines and has not got enough anti-submarine helicopters, using mostly "lightweight Z-9Cs" and "somewhat more capable Ka-28 types." But since the beginning of the 21st century China has focused on its anti-submarine capabilities, ramping the production of anti-submarine corvettes, equipping its multi-role surface vessels with depth sonars, anti-submarine torpedoes and increasing the number of helicopters.

On Edge: Beijing Warns US of the Dangers of Spying in South China Sea
According to the analysts Beijing is aware of the need to boost its anti-submarine warfare capabilities. And it has enough resources to fill the gap, with its rapid economic growth and swift technological development.

"[China] is already using these resources to close the gap with its neighbors and the United States," the report stated.

"Beijing is off to a good start. China has added Gaoxin-6 anti-submarine airplanes to the North Sea Fleet. These aircraft carry sea-search radar, a large magnetic anomaly detector boom and other anti-submarine equipment and weapons. They are broadly comparable to the US P-3 Orion aircraft — the anti-submarine workhorse for many militaries worldwide," Stratfor's analysts emphasized.

China's anti-submarine warfare requirements are growing as Beijing kicks off operations in the South and East China Seas. Beijing carries out extensive survey and mapping of operating areas in the South China Sea and builds a network of underwater sensors across the South and East China Seas to detect submarines.

Beijing has also improved its own submarine production, manufacturing Yuan-class diesel-electric submarines and nuclear subs. Early this month, media sources reported that Islamabad was planning to purchase eight of China's modern Yuan-class submarines (Type 093A).

Launch of YJ-18 missile
© Photo: Youtube/ JDUS2020

China’s Cutting-Edge Missile System Snapped on Camera
Simultaneously, Western media speculated about a billion-dollar submarine deal between China and Thailand. The deal sparked a lot of controversy among US policy makers, who have long considered Bangkok Washington's loyal ally.

Furthermore, the country's military is implementing unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV) with anti-submarine warfare applications, while Chinese technicians, aircrew and sailors are undergoing special training on a regular basis.

China's military strategy is based on a concept of preventing the foreign incursion. While the US and NATO submarines still pose a potential threat to the country's maritime zone, the gap between NATO and China's underwater warfare capabilities is steadily narrowing.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/2015072 ... z3gnQsBiy6

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Aug 2015 15:19

China Calls US a 'Cyber Bully' After Unfounded Cybertheft Allegations

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 03 Aug 2015 23:15

Any views here on why China has not invested in an ABM project?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Aug 2015 23:18

They have an ABM program and it has already had live fires.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 04 Aug 2015 03:51

Chinese military wants more teeth to counter India, US, Japan

BEIJING: Bracketing India along with the US, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam as "threats" to China'a airspace, the PLA in a study has sought the broadening of its air surveillance and attack capabilities with high-speed cruise missiles and a new generation of bombers.

China's Air Force Command Academy in its report last year identified the United States, Japan, Taiwan, India and Vietnam as "threats" to its military airspace until the year 2030, Japanese news agency Kyodo reported.

While the massive expansion of Chinese navy with a second aircraft carrier and a new bomber to operate from its decks attracted worldwide attention, the new study showed that the air force has started developing a similar expansion strategy, the report said.

The study called for nine types of strategic equipment to counter the threats, which included high-speed air-launched cruise missiles, large transport planes, an airship that moves in the upper atmosphere, a next-generation fighter, unmanned attack aircraft, air-force satellites and precision-guided bombs.

It said the 2.3 million-strong People's Liberation Army (PLA), the world's largest, needs to broaden its air surveillance and attack capabilities to the western Pacific, including the areas near Japan to ensure its command.

The PLA operates with an annual budget of about $145 billion, over three times India's $40 billion budget.

The Beijing-based academy, a thinktank of an air force leadership training organisation, prepared the report in November last year.

Studies by the academy have previously served as policy guidelines, the report said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 Aug 2015 17:15

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Aug 2015 20:18

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 10 Aug 2015 02:32

China's Fifth Generation Stealth Fighter are underpowered with second rate stealth but new prototypes are being built at low cost

China's J-20 Black Eagle could be fully operational by 2018, and a second model, the J-31 Gyrfalcon, by 2020. If true, China’s new generation of fighters could have a substantial impact on its ability to either defend what it considers to be sovereign airspace, or to mount an aerial offensive in a wartime scenario, particularly against Taiwan (ROC).

An obscure engineer named Yang Wei has rapidly risen to the leadership of the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute — a major warplane manufacturer responsible for quickly churning out Beijing's top warplanes. He developed the J-20, China's first stealth fighter (along with copied technology and information from Chinese hacking).

Still underpowered, with second rate stealth

China now builds fighters cheaply, quickly, and simply. However, China still has work to do to make a near-undetectable aircraft comparable to American designs — perhaps even Russian ones.

The J20 is underpowered considering its size and the fact that it wields twin AL-31F engines. Those engines are Russian and just a bit too weak for an aircraft that must balance speed and agility, which the J-20 appears to strive to do. Then there's the electronics and fire-control systems, both areas where Chinese innovations are lacking.

The J-20 could acting as a long-range sniper, speeding directly toward U.S. reconnaissance planes and tankers … and shooting them out of the sky. Without those support assets in the air, America's ability to wage war in the western Pacific drops dramatically.

Evolving designs

Chengdu has produced six prototypes. The designers are also taking J-20 and evolving it. The plane's engine nozzles, one of the big giveaways to radar sweeps from behind, have been partially concealed on later prototypes. And Chengdu has apparently modeled its electro-optical targeting arrangement after the F-35. Other features, such as the front, resemble the U.S. F-22. That's perhaps helped by data theft from America's stealth fighter programs.

Plus, the J-20 will likely have an advantage over the F-35 in terms of speed and maneuverability owing to its large, delta wing design. What the J-20 lacks is a bigger, reliable engine.

The J20 is not a game-changing warplane. But in a little more than a decade, China went from having no stealth warplanes to entering the select club of countries in the fifth-generation fighter business.

US will keep dominant numbers of fighters through 2030

A late 2014 IHS forecast, the United States alone was projected to purchase 2,616 fifth-generation aircraft; a mixture of F-22s to be used by the Air Force and F-35 variants for the Air Force, Marines and Navy. NATO allies, specifically the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Italy, Turkey and Canada, are forecast to purchase more than 600 of these advanced planes. Other U.S. allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia are also on track to procure approximately 300 such planes.

Rounding out the likely future purchases, Russia, China and India are expected to acquire more than 1,500 fifth-generation aircraft, intended to replace the Su-27, Su-30 and MiG-29 models, along with other indigenous aircraft.

This was before the likely cutback of T50s ordered by Russia and India.
It also assumes that the F35 will not be cancelled or significantly cutback in the 2020s.
The trend is downward as previously the expectation was 3200 fifth generation planes for the USA.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 10 Aug 2015 07:01

Its incredible how much voluminous yet completely hollow one can write when one's attention span struggles to go back more than 5 years or so. What the author of the article completely ignores is that there have been open / de-classified briefings on Chinese advanced aerospace programs. Even using basic google fu one can come up with open-source material from sources that cite ONI (Office of Naval Intelligence) reference of a Chinese '5th' generation aircraft project ongoing even in mid-ninetees. And that is open source stuff. Furthermore, if one had access to a decent database or public library one could also dig up how much the Chinese worked with the Russians in acquiring technology, getting advanced flankers and some basic design research that they have used on a host of programs form advanced fighters to even engines if some reports are to be believed.

The J20 is not a game-changing warplane. But in a little more than a decade, China went from having no stealth warplanes to entering the select club of countries in the fifth-generation fighter business

The US went from having no 5th generation warplane in 2004 to having 2 squadrons of operational stealth warplanes in 2005. Similarly the Marines went from having no stealth aircraft to a squadron of stealth fighters last week. Neither those, or the chinese developments are a result of 5-10 years of work. They have been at advanced fighter aircraft research and development for at least 25 years.

As far as capability, well lets see..Nothing is known about their production quality, material technology, propulsion is claimed to be lackluster to a point that they are putting old smokey mig-29 engines on the J-31..We know nothing of how capable their AESA tech is..So the J-20 has a similar looking EO/IR window? What does that have to do with the quality of the staring sensor? Is it even a staring sensor?

The trend is downward as previously the expectation was 3200 fifth generation planes for the USA

The number of stealth planes, or the total number of fighter squadrons in the USAF is a function of COCOM demand. There were 150+ squadrons post gulf war 1992 (Gulf War) with 188 during the GW..that number has fallen because the COCOMS do not need that many squadrons..The Cold War is over and the new requirements aren't as intense. At the moment there is more high demand for ISR assets, stealthy ISR, More tankers and transporters..In that context the RQ-180 and LRS-B are far more important and there strength determines the capability to counter China. The F-35 numbers are not a very good indicator of how capable the USAF is for the F-35 as an acquisition program will continue to co-exist with 6th generation fighter development plans - Plans that funded prototype development in the 2016 fiscal budgets. Numbers can and will be adjusted up or down based on COCOM demand. At the moment, at the time of last review they were 1776 for the USAF and 500-600 for the USN and USMC but that can change if there is a need. Otherwise more squadrons of stealthy ISR drones and a recap of the bomber fleet. The 3200 number is for a demand that no-longer exists and building to that is foolish in the absence of an actual combat command demand.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Aug 2015 07:41

Peoples do not realize how much effort needs to be expended in a "5th Gen" plane.

China, IMHO, is nowhere close. Russia is closer, but I just do not see her having the needed infrastructure. I see Russia doing the spike/ebb model, but will not be able to field a complete product (of course depends one what is deemed "complete").

By then the US will have a "6th Gen" toy to contend with.

And, the next bing bang cycle will start.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 10 Aug 2015 08:01

NRao wrote:Peoples do not realize how much effort needs to be expended in a "5th Gen" plane.

China, IMHO, is nowhere close. Russia is closer, but I just do not see her having the needed infrastructure. I see Russia doing the spike/ebb model, but will not be able to field a complete product (of course depends one what is deemed "complete").

By then the US will have a "6th Gen" toy to contend with.

And, the next bing bang cycle will start.

This is correct - but "fighter generation" is an expression defined by the US. Being ahead of the pack the US says "this is next gen" and everyone else can only follow.

I am beginning to veer around to the view that the"catch up game" in aircraft generation is more about export sales - which are also an indicator of national power. But they are not so much an indicator of war winning capability. Ironically "higher gen" has more export potential - and is bought by nations who want to fight wars - but higher gen may not help win a war. It will simply make the exporting nation richer

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 10 Aug 2015 13:59

shiv wrote:
NRao wrote:Peoples do not realize how much effort needs to be expended in a "5th Gen" plane.

China, IMHO, is nowhere close. Russia is closer, but I just do not see her having the needed infrastructure. I see Russia doing the spike/ebb model, but will not be able to field a complete product (of course depends one what is deemed "complete").

By then the US will have a "6th Gen" toy to contend with.

And, the next bing bang cycle will start.
This is correct - but "fighter generation" is an expression defined by the US. Being ahead of the pack the US says "this is next gen" and everyone else can only follow.

I am beginning to veer around to the view that the"catch up game" in aircraft generation is more about export sales - which are also an indicator of national power. But they are not so much an indicator of war winning capability. Ironically "higher gen" has more export potential - and is bought by nations who want to fight wars - but higher gen may not help win a war. It will simply make the exporting nation richer

Nothing guarantees a victory in war, and certainly not possessing higher generation of aircraft. Advanced aircraft (5th generation if you will) require advanced training practices, doctrine and a lot of support to fully realize their potential. The USAF for example is changing the entire way it conducts Red Flag-3 because the current setup though the best large force exercise in the world is grossly inadequate to support a fleet of all F-22's and F-35's. It simply does not challenge the fusion processing of the systems. Therefore significant investments are and will be required to manipulate and trick the fusion process in these systems to make the pilot face scenarios that are extremely challenging. They are working at zero latency Virtual Construct in a Live large-force deployment setting. Without that infrastructure a 5th generation aircraft is just a toy. Additionally the "force-multiplier" advantage of these systems comes at a cost..you need to have a force capable of leveraging that capability and that means a deep rooted belief and investment in net-centric warfare. Without that basic infrastructure a potential operator can only hope of operating a 5th generation capability as a fourth generation legacy and that means not realizing the full benefit of what that capability brings to the table.

As far as export, well its nothing new. New and more capable hardware has always sold better. Su-27 and Mig-29's sold very well and overtook the market from the aircraft they replaced. Similarly the F-16 cornered the western market upon arrival. 5th generation F-35 is doing the same, and unless there is some restriction in export the PAKFA should do pretty much the same for its customer base. When operators look to replace their fleets they look at the best capability that is available and if there is stealth out there, if there is cutting edge avionics and sensor-fusion and more advanced weapons system, then they will look into it just as they did when they bought the aircraft they are looking to replace now? Does 5th generation mean a victory in war? No, if deployed properly it can against older systems give you a very clear and decisive advantage all things considered. But winning a war is a lot lot more than having a superior fighter aircraft.

Ultimately its not the design but what goes into the design and tactics that is important, and how much intel you have on your threat to work it into your systems. Those investments are absolutely worth their weight in gold (if not more). That is why the IAF's training with Typhoon's, DACT with F-15's, F-16's is well worth the expense of the entire effort. Similarly, the USAF getting access to Mig-29's way back, to a point where it used them as agressors out of Groom lake means a lot to the OEM's designing next generation systems. Same thing with the Su27. The USAF was lucky to land its hands on a couple of Su-27's along with enough spares to conduct an aggressive evaluation and even send it up against the F-15 to see its strengths and weaknesses. From that aspect, a 5th generation or any next generation capability is only as good as your intel. on your adversaries equipment, training and tactics. Just imagine the benefits to the AMCA design team if they could get a J-10 and pick it apart, have its test pilots fly it, evaluate it...tear it down or put it into a tunnel to gather the most information.