Article on MMRCA for Swarajya Magazine

[JE Menon]

Guys, Ramana and I have been requested by Swarajya magazine, as follows:

"Anyone you know who can write about the MMRCA saga and sort of weave the story of the Tejas in?
The 124 planes tender, I hear, has been cancelled. Need someone to explain just how broken our procurement system is - this is a story not told often"

Can anyone here, alone or jointly with someone, come up with something that does the other. Remember this is a magazine article that clear, cogent and digestible for the layman - not a super-detailed high funda type article you might right for the journal that Suraj is curating. It could be the sapling which grows into that sort of thing though. Kill two birds with one stone.

Will keep this as a sticky temporarily.

[ramana]

KaranM, srai or Maitya I think excellent chance to springboard your knowledge.

[shiv]

KaranM, srai or Maitya I think excellent chance to springboard your knowledge.

Maitya has gone into hibernation - someone locate him

[maitya]

KaranM, srai or Maitya I think excellent chance to springboard your knowledge.

Maitya has gone into hibernation - someone locate him

Shivji I'm very much there, but in lurk mode, as I desperately try to figure out a laymanish method of detailing "load distribution for a series of cantilever beams" - been trying for 2 weeks now, but haven't found anything suitable (from a layman pov) as yet.

But the problem is, ramanaji asked me a simple pooch ... and the response has already turned out to be 4K (4017 to be precise) word post with atleast two hand-drawn (I mean using-koompuuter-but-still-hand-drawn) figures. Here's one of it, alongwith a snippet of that post ... a sample:

...
...
And a word of caution here, the aerodynamic distributed load on the wing creates shear force, bending moment and torsional moment at wing stations, so they should always be considered for all such calculations. And to calculate these forces (and the direct weight-loadings), various dimensional details of the LCA structure are required, as it’s not enough to know how much are these loads but it’s essential to know where these loads are acting upon.

But that created an immediate problem, as apart from the total wing area (38.4sqm) and total wing span (8.2m), no other details are available in open source. And basic dimensional parameters like Wing Aspect Ratio (AR), Main Chord length, Tip Chord length, Taper Ratio, Wing Sweep etc are required to proceed.

So, being true-blue SDRE, the jugaad mentality kicked in and I started assuming things left-right-and-center, so here’s what I assumed/did - looked at the various photuus of LCA and figured out that tip-chord length is essentially same as the elevon width, and thus I assumed it to be 1m*.
(*Note: For M2K the tip-chord length is 1.15m and there also the elevon width more-or-less matched with the tip chord length).

Based on this assumption, and known parameters (Total Wing Area and Total Wing Span), I’ve deduced these basic dimensional parameters, as illustrated in the diagram below (also included the formulas that has been used, refer to Fig (i)(b) – but do note there are other methods and formulas to derive these, as well, so you may want to use other methods/formulas to verify them).


...
...

Problem is, that 4K word post is incomplete - currently it strawman'ish as it starts by assuming only one main spar (load-bearing), proceeds to do all the weight load derivations, does the stress distn calculation and then knocks it down by pointing the absurdity/fallacy of some of the assumptions made in doing so.
So I need to bring closure to it, by bringing out a laymanish way of "load distn across multi-spar YellCeeAA wing" - my current thinking (after junking quote a few other approaches, as them being too technical oriented, and thus not laymanish enough) is to somehow shoehorn Schrenk's approximation of Lift distn theory to that of Weight load distn as well, and be done with it.
Let's see where this leads me to.

And, yes, as usual, you were right ... like the ToIlet ediitaaaars, I also seriously need to practice some good-old précis writing (can borrow my daughter's Wren and Martin, it's been a while since I've last used it) as 4K word posts are simply not good enough, trying to answer simple questions (like the one ramanaji asked).

[Philip]

I think that research has to go further than just the LCA.AM P.Rajkumar has brought out a fine book about the LCA,there are several blogs by retd. IAF senior brass who've thrown other insights into the LCA saga.We know thanks to them why the Bison was developed,LCA delays anticipated,but the MMRCA? Isn't there a massive BRF archive about the whole history? It would be a fascinating story to tell,which still hasn't ended!

[Raja Ram]

My gentle friends,

Allow me this indulgence. Please support in every way possible the fine young minds who are the masterminds behind Swarajya. Both Prasanna and Amar are known to me for many years and they are distinguished alumni from BR forum.

I have tried to be of help to them by submitting my attempts at writings and they have been kind enough to publish them. Request gurus here to come and contribute meaningful content to this Nationalist Journal that was once started by Rajaji and Minoo Masani. They have boldly embarked on this venture giving up their lucrative career in their chosen fields to dedicate themselves to the cause of the Nationalist thought.

I have been supporting them to the best of my ability by way of contributing articles which they have kindly published in their magazine blog and by way of subscription. They would be well served, if more BR gurus can contribute their knowledgable insights to Swarajya. The quality of scholarship and writing that BR can bring to the table is of very high quality.

A high quality journal that clearly articulates Nationalist view point is a need of the hour in India and these young man are going about providing this in an economically efficient and effective manner with the highest level of professionalism.

You can helb by
1. Subscribing to the magazine
2. Gifting them to friends and introducing the magazine through Social Media
3. Contribute Articles to it
4. If possible place advertisements in the magazine

They are backed by an Advisory Board comprising people of the highest calibre and integrity. I have not taken their permission to post this here, I am taking the liberty as their well wisher and self appointed mentor of sorts.

Admins, I hope this is not in contervention of any rules of yours. If so, you can take it down. Just wanted to help this team in their national cause. JEM thanks for the thread. Hope to see your articles in print as well. And that of ramana and shiv of course. The good prof Narayanan Kommerath has already started I noticed.

[ramana]

maitya, Do go ahead and write your evaluation and post in LCA thread. I will help condense it. Do that for a living. Summarize complex issues to help make decisions.


Again I would like KaranM and you to take a shot at it and help spread the message via Swarajya.

Thanks,

ramana


General outline:
Genesis of MMRCA requirement
Fighter competition
Negotiations and price increases
Meantime IAF squadron drawdown: Mig 21 replacements vs medium fighter requirements.
No IAF Plan B because all options where whittled away by MoD due to inaction
Raha did make the statement but it has to be seen in context.
Context is IAF has no choice in the Medium Aircraft category 12 years after the requirement was identified.

Where LCA fits in all this?

[Avarachan]

I recommend that an article not be written until the relevant deals are signed. I suspect that the order for 36 Rafale's will go through. I suspect that there will also be an order for additional Su-3x's.

Also, there was a lot going on behind the scenes of the MMRCA contract. In my opinion, the MMRCA competition was handled brilliantly. The contract should not be viewed in isolation from the overall strategic scenario.

Keep in mind that the original RFI was issued in 2001.

[ramana]

Please expand on that thought

[Cosmo_R]

Focusing on the procurement system broken or otherwise is to miss the bigger point. What is really broken or missing is the strategy. Hate to admit it but Stephen Cohen got it right when he named it "Arming without aiming".

Our entire armed forces strategy seems to revolve around the the fabled "Holding Corps" vs "Strike Corps" approach. And its not just the army bit the IAF too. The Navy seems to get it bu they are way down in the budget allocation.

I think BRFites are smart enough to fill in the blanks so I wont belabor it except to proffer an analogy: you don't win cricket matches by electing to field by default and only batting when absolutely necessary.

Even MP is falling into the trap by focusing on procurement. He should focus on how to achieve India's strategic goals through military capability even as the MEA focuses on diplomacy to do the same and both provide the PMO with a range of readily executable steps/actions.

Hey, it's corporate strategy 101 and we have a lot of McKinsey/BCG/Bain types who can be harnessed. Or maybe that is not such a good idea.

[Karan M]

Am here, just saw this thread. Will do my bit.

[PratikDas]

This bystander would like to know how this is coming along. Are you folks working on this?

[Avarachan]

Please expand on that thought

Ramana, as you know, "loose lips sink ships." I plan to write an article once all the relevant deals are signed. I suspect that will happen within the next 6-12 months.

[Mihir]

I'm in. I already have a bunch of material collated/written down from my posts all over the web. Plus, I've written for Swarajya before. JEM, could you please create a mailing list for us to collaborate on?

[srai]

Let's brainstorm an outline together and from there people can contribute by researching, drafting and reviewing.

Here's a starter outline:

A. Introduction

1. Overview
2. Broken procurement system
3. Options

B. Topic 1: Background

1. Brief history of MMRCA
2. Origins and need
3. Missed opportunities (i.e. license prod of Mirage-2000 in 80s and 2000s)
4. Short summary of RFI/RFP: for the first time inclusion of life-cycle costs (LCC)--a little understood concept in the IAF at that time; 50% offset requirements

C. Topic 2: Competition & Selection

1. Participating manufactures and platforms: F-16IN, F-18IN, MiG-35, Gripen, Typhoon and Rafale
2. Various evaluations and shortcomings observed in the platforms (i.e. failures in hot-high conditions); why some platforms did not make the downselect
3. Downselect: Rafale and Typhoon

D. Topic 3: L1, Negotiation & Escalating Costs

1. L1: Rafale
2. Lengthy negotiations and contentions (i.e. vendor guarantees on HAL quality and delivery timelines [lessons pointed out in audit report on Su-30MKI ToT and production]); fudged LCC numbers
3. Underestimated original costs of the overall program at $10 billion; The actual costs were surpassing $20billion mark when ToT, lifecycle costs, and others possibly production/support infrastructure and weapon package.

E. Topic 4: MMRCA in relations to India's Overall Defense Spending

1. India's defense budget and future growth; breakdown of revenue-to-new procurement percentages for each of the services
2. Competing procurement funds from the IA (MSC, FICV, Artillery modernization, etc.) and IN (AC, P-75/I SSK, SSN/SSBN, P-15B, etc.) as well as the IAF in itself (more C-130J, C-17, Chinook, Apache, etc)
3. Where is the money?

F. Topic 5: Need for Strategic Vision

1. Global power? - Nope; not with imported weapons systems, especially not at 70% reliance. Various restrictions on imported weapon usage-- i.e. fighting their allies, power projection, etc. -- and implications of bans on parts and weapons; also, price gouging when in desperation as in wartime. Independent foreign policy severely compromised.
2. Continual dependence: weapon systems lasts for 30-40 years; need OEM to perform upgrades, such as MLU, further sucking up huge FOREX. ToT = screwdriver-giri
3. Development and support of indigenous MIC is the need of the hour. Stop the brochure-titist (i.e. mixing/matching requirements from a collections of glowing marketing brochures) and love of imports. Need for technical branch in the armed forces with no promotion discrimination.
4. Promotion of officers with strategic vision to the upper echelons, where they will be in the position to bring it to fruition

G. Topic 6: Plan B

1. "No Plan B" is the IAF's stance; who are the IAF helping by announcing "no plan B" through news media by air chiefs while negotiations were going on?
2. Temporary appeasement to the French and the IAF: Modi's 36 Rafale G-to-G deal; costs to be similar to Armée de l'air, which is around $200 millions/unit (probably includes some LCC and other support packages); negotiation delays in 50% offset fulfillment and costs could escalate further.
3. Alternatives: More Su-30MKI and LCA Mk.1/2. Due to high costs, Rafales cannot be the replacements for retiring MiG-21/27s; LCA should be the one at $30 million/unit and better capabilities offered for the aircrafts it will replace. Where the IAF requires long-reach, then those would be filled-in by a few more squadrons of Su-30MKIs, at $75 million/unit, on top of its current order. Huge investments already in place for MKIs, from indigenous manufacture to lifecycle support. Both Su-30MKIs and LCAs will use existing arsenal in the IAF's inventory further adding to cost savings. Plus, build up India's MIC.

H. Topic 7: Broken Procurement System and Fixes

1. Strategic purchases don't work in global tenders; More efficient is G-2-G deal where other "strategic" concessions, such as nuclear technology or permanent seat at UNSC, can be obtained.
2. Too long: major purchases take way too long i.e. more than 10-years. Plus, subsequent purchasing of spare parts/weapons too gets stuck in bureaucracy; needs to be more streamlined. Have the foreign OEM setup shop in India and hire 95% Indian employees as part of its offset fulfillment.
3. Inclusions of LCC: lifecycle support needs to be factored in and 10+ years of support needs to be signed-up upfront where the OEM can guarantee % serviceability rates and spare parts can be stocked up upfront.
4. Negotiate with multiple vendors at the same time to get the best offer; both Eurofighter and Rafale should have been given the chance to negotiate the commercial bid and only then figure out who is L1 and L2; exclusive negotiation only with L1 was premature.
5. Realistic budgets and procurement strategy: revenue-to-capital spending needs to be fixed for each service; overall defense needs to be factored-in and purchases prioritized across armed forces. No separate piecemeal purchases; focus on standardization i.e. fewer types but more quantities.
6. Chief-Defense-Staff (CDS) is the need of the hour for better coordination amongst the services and services to government.
7. Have "Plan B" from the get go! Execute "Plan B "in phases when deadlines are not met.

I. Conclusion

1. Brief summary
2. Fix system
3. Seriously consider Plan B options.

Note: Depending on the length of the article, some of the topics could be condensed into one.

[srai]

x-posting:

All these articles that we write collectively should be put into a BR Blog. Then, BR could also send a simplified and condensed version to any number of newspapers/magazines for publishing to wider audience.

Some collective articles (with their own sticky threads):

• Trials and Tribulations of Arjun MBT
• LCA Here and Now
• Building the Indigenous Defence Capability: Past, Present and Future

[member_28476]

I hope i could give a help on Rafale concept and genesis.
Also can publish translated article on a french site? It would be good to "hear" an indian point of view.

[JE Menon]

Guys, use this thread to collaborate... I don't know the emails of the people likely to participate.

Just one note. This must be in layman's language understandable to all - and not super-long either. Remember this is a generalist magazine, not a technical journal. We want to inform the general public...

I know you chaps, given a whisper of a chance - you'll end up with a sentence like this: "Based on this assumption, and known parameters (Total Wing Area and Total Wing Span), I’ve deduced these basic dimensional parameters, as illustrated in the diagram below..." (Maitya being the culprit here ).

Having said that the high-funda details etc can be fleshed out along the lines of Srai's post for the BR journal...

Mihir, given that you already have material - could you start writing the article and would you mind if Karan M & Maitya collaborate in terms of reviewing and suggesting adjustments? You are deeply into it, and I know Karan M is knowledgeable enough to write a bloody book on the thing. Are you three cool with that? If yes, then please exchange emails and pop one out let's say within 15 days?

Please confirm if this is feasible. If not, we'll try something else.

Let's support Swarajya guys. We are always complaining about the presstitutes, etc. Here's our chance to support a young effort at changing that...

[Viv S]

When is your article due? Have you been given a deadline? Also, do you have a word limit?

[Viv S]

Couple of things to add to Srai's post (reading from my own sheet admittedly).

- The current urgency for more aircraft i.e basic details on the PLAAF build-up; in terms of numbers, technology and new infrastructure in the TAR.
- The essential assessment of 'cost effectiveness'. Planning around budgets instead of rather arbitrary force numbers.
- Also, Plan B absolutely needs to include ex-UAE/Qatar Mirages. Plus the F-35 (offers better capability for a lower price).

[disha]

A different kind of plug., will Swarajya Mag be interested in article on ISRO/ GSLV and future? A lot has been written on it, but none from a perspective of a nationalist. Even forbes writes that China does 25 launches while ISRO only 5 (and hence inefficient)., such kind of comparison leads nowhere.

Can this be bounced with people who know and matter at Swarajya mag?

[Kartik]

Mihir, I'm in - if you need me to contribute, you know where you know my email ID.

[Mihir]

Kartik, already emailed you

JEM saar, I'm on it.

[JE Menon]

Excellent stuff boys. Let's pop this baby out by Sept. 20 if possible.

@Disha, three words: just do it.

Remember, layman's language, simple clear explanatory stuff. We are educating general public. Someone must be triggered to become a specialist or hobby-specialist by reading your article. That's the goal. Thought-seeding. Meme-generation. See KrishnaG's beautifully simple and simply beautiful post on explanation of various countries and their approach to semi-cryo.

One more thing, be nationalist, but don't wear it on your sleeve. The content and optimism regarding what ISRO has done and what lies in store must make others become nationalist by thinking for themselves. That is why a convert is the most zealous, because he or she believes she thought up the whole thing himself/herself. If you wish, share it with me and I will happily suggest/guide on tone, subtlety and so on.

[suryag]

Can anyone please ask swarajya sales team to make the mags available in higginbothams store

[JE Menon]

^^They've just got into the stand sales business. In a month or so they should have everything sorted

[suryag]

great thanks JEM garu, need to hit in airport and railway stations first, searched every book store in Chennai and found the useless outlook

[Malayappan]

suryag Sir, why don't you just subscribe? And get the issues delivered at home? I am one and am quite happy with the effort!

Link: http://swarajyamag.com/subscribe/

[Rahul M]

they are very prompt, started delivery within a week.

[suryag]

yes sir already subscribed but to massa address but wanted it on stands in india so that people could read somewhat good mags during travel instead of the outlook kind of stuff

[JE Menon]

Hi peoples responsible for article, don't want to be a nagmeister but any traction on the piece?

[SaiK]

I read it elsewhere recently (lost the link) Modiji might plan to do a Rafale on PAKFA. Get some 50-60 of them ordered and be done with it! Rest focus on Make In India from home grown platforms. This might be in addition to more of Super 30s.

Of course, if the Russians and French establishes factory to use Indian labor, that is entirely a different venture.

[Mihir]

Hi peoples responsible for article, don't want to be a nagmeister but any traction on the piece?

Sadly, it didn't work out. Like the MMRCA itself, the piece went nowhere. Kartik and I are still trying to work on an interesting angle no it though, so hope springs eternal

On the other hand, I did manage to write up something on the LCA because of the interest surrounding Parrikar's seemingly out-of-the-blue decision to purchase 120 planes. Here's the link: http://swarajyamag.com/technology/stop- ... hievement/

[JE Menon]

OK, cool hopefully something comes of it. At least you pushed one through

[SaiK]

srai, you may want to focus somethings like ops and reqs that kinda merges or directly engages various features and operational ++ aspects in the plan b. this will give a strong tractability to reqs.

also, there may be counter -- in the plan b, and how it can be addressed in tranches. a new idea like a how plan b serves net-centric ops would be a boost under the arms, perhaps with a squad with refuelers, awacs/super 30s and mk2s [especially cuing from passive mk2].