Mid Atlantic BRF Jirga 2016 (NJ-DE-PA-NY)

[Rudradev]

It eej that time again!

PLACE: Princeton, NJ (contact rudradev DAWT brf ATT gmail DAWT com phor details)

DATE: EITHER Saturday April 2 OR Sunday April 3, 2016 phor lunch (Plijj to answer the poll koschun)

ADMINS, Plijj to ishticky this thread until April 3, 2016.

[Shreeman]

Diyar Jirga,

Apraile is no gud. But in mai, there is sum unik enter-e-tainment possible if jirga members are so inclined. It would be gud to know hu wants to waste many and much time closer to neu york city in mai.

[Gagan]

Eye agree with Mai too.
Aprail ij no gud

[ShauryaT]

Folks: We do have an exciting Jirga coming up with War simulations et al... Folks in the area should not miss it. Others, please provide ideas towards the theme.

I am x-posting some email discussions. Hopefully it is OK.

Quote Rudradev.

For an activity, Avarachan and I are planning to host an Engle Matrix Game Simulation. Something like this:

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... f=3&t=6877

Please go through the above link and see what you think.

*** I urge all those who are coming to please visit the above-linked thread, to get a sense of the game rules and an example of the gameplay.***

It was difficult to sustain this kind of simulation at an online forum like BRF, because players could not respond with their moves in a timely fashion, but it should definitely be easy to do it at a get-together like the jirga.

For the jirga, I am thinking of a scenario that has occupied the minds of many on BRF for a while... the rapid production of TNWs by Pakistan and what it means for future conflict. We could present a scenario in which the Pakistanis have built about 75 TNWs out of a total nuke arsenal of about 150 weapons. At that time (very near future, real world situations obtain unless mentioned) there is a Mumbai-style or worse terrorist attack on India.

How does India respond? Cold Start? If so, does Pakistan respond to incursions with TNWs? Where does it go from there?

There would be at least two teams playing India and Pakistan. An additional Umpire team (which I hope you would like to lead, given your in-depth study of strategic security affairs) will arbitrate and also throw in narrative changes featuring other non-player sides... US, China, Russia, etc. We might also think about having separate teams take on the US/China etc. roles.

We could record the proceedings and use them to write an article afterwards.

In general, I think this kind of simulation might be more interesting (in terms of involving everyone who attends) rather than a seminar-style activity.

Your thoughts?

I think nuclear war are war enders, regardless of the label tactical. 75 TNW's if all unleashed - even assuming no corresponding response will damage only a quarter of an armored division. Each strike corp has three divisions and India has three strike corps amassed against PA, in addition to 10 IBG/Pivot corps. Our heli borne assets, missile arsenals, air assets enjoy an overall 5:1 fire power superiority. The PN is no match for the IN. Their only hope on hell is if other powers militarily intervene and are willing to earn the wrath of a billion Hindus. Even this window is open only for about 10 years or so. Once we hit the $5 trillion mark, anyone else who wants to touch us, will also have to burn.

So, even assuming the worst wimpy political decision of not to use nuclear assets in retaliation, the PA still would not be able to accomplish its military goal of stopping an IA armored thrust.

Also, this whole idea of a nuclear war in response to a terrorist attack does not compute. We do not have to go through an artificial scenario for a very close real life scenario exists by way of Op. Parakram in response to the terrorist attack on Parliament. At the end of the day, the GoI could not figure out, what were the objectives they wanted to achieve through war. It was the reason the final decision was not taken as the political objective was not clear. This information is directly first hand from a General, who served in that Operation.

Sorry, for not being excited about the scenario but something conventional is more realistic. It is more realistic because IMO the actors in Pakistan are rational in view of the objectives of their state. Many get riled on this comment but I have yet to see them behave in an irrational manner - again in light of the objectives of their state. Hence believe that they fully understand nuclear weapons cannot be used "casually". What worries me is not Pakistan but China. If Pakistan becomes important enough to China that she somehow convinces China to join a military adventure then things can get very interesting. I know many people think it is unlikely but our army and air force prepare for this scenario and IMO is a legit scenario to game.

Sorry again for not being excited about the realistic probabilities of use of TNW's but if others feel different and can game it, I will learn something.

Another idea is to try something along the lines of Hybrid Warfare. Just some ideas.

http://www.claws.in/images/publication_ ... -02-16.pdf

[fanne]

Please have it on April 2, April 3 is Ekadashi, People fast and may not be able to drive long

[ShauryaT]

This article posted in the Naval thread can also help provide a war game scenario along conventional lines - without invoking nuclear war enders.

http://bharatshakti.in/ships-and-shipbu ... ian-prism/

Thanks to Titash for posting.

[Rudradev]

Shaurya, thanks for posting those resources. I'll go through the CLAWS and bharatshakti articles to see what we can come up with.

Fanne, April 3 is already confirmed. Hope you can make it.

[salaam]

Hi Rudra, I will email you...

[krishna_krishna]

May is much better if it was possible.

[Karthik S]

May is much better if it was possible.

+1

[salaam]

Hi Rudra,

I have received no response from you. Kindly have a look at your email.

Regards,
Salaam

[ramana]

How did the meeting go?