Bombing Bombay? - Study of n-holocaust

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 07 Jul 2000 20:02

Would any of the participants like to put together an article for BRM from the standpoint of Emergency Management? Shiv is putting a related article together, so it might be good to discuss whether we merge the two articles or (better) have two separate articles taht address the various issues in greater depth.Sunil, Narayanan etc, would you like to step up to the plate?[This message has been edited by Calvin (edited 16-07-2000).]

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 07 Jul 2000 21:13

hi guys, its after a long time i am posting..and its really distressing to see this kind of a topic discussed in br. how can one posibly talk about a nuclear holocaust in such flimsy terms as some of you have been doing. i have been previously described in this forum as a leftist, fifth columnist etc etc..but i live in mumbai( not that i like this place much, but my office is here, so dont have a choice)..i would really not want to be incinerated..and neither would the 10 million or o mumbaikars...kashmir or no kashmir...the problem in this otherwise very stimulating forum is that some people have scant regard for the human life. the effort today sshould be to stop a nuke exchange, not calculating how "minimum" our losses will be vis-a-vis pakistanis..its no use killing 10 million pakis if 2 million indians are kiled in the process..and mumbai!!!do u realize what happens if mumbai is blown out??the commercial heart of india is wrenched out. and with mumbai up in flames, the whole incipient dream of a better, more confident india will go up in flames..think about that..somnath

Sagar · Post by **Sagar** » 07 Jul 2000 21:41

Somnath,In that case we need to move our financial and commercial centers away from Mumbai. You see the pervert Generals of TSP or the jihadi monkeys may not listen to common sense and rational human behaviour i.e if we can call them human at all. What Sunil and Shiv are discussing is disaster management which is extremely relevant given the poor level of awareness in India and it has to take into account the amount of destruction that such a strike will leave behind. ***********Sunil, Shiv,Given India's experience with the Latur earthquake and the Orissa cyclone where disaster management was nearly absent do you think that this is possible in the near future? In short what is the time frame we are looking at before a basic disaster management system is put in place assuming ofcourse that the dynosaur called GOI starts working now? Do we have the resources to do it?[This message has been edited by Sagar (edited 07-07-2000).]

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jul 2000 22:30

Sunil please combine your two posts and make an article out of it and submit if notfor this issue at least for later. Include any comments from shiv and narayanan. I belive the important thing is to stockpile antibiotics and radio active Iodine. Thanks, ramana

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 07 Jul 2000 23:08

hi,a few quick replies. Shiv,I welcome all quibbles. I have been thinking about this issue all alone.. It is too upseting for any of my friends. Here is my estimate of the nature of injuries that medical teams will come up against. This is partly from the M.V.Ramana article and partly from training at BNL. 1) Severe Burns. (A very large number of people with burns between 50 - 72% (law of nines+exposed area burns law). 2) Most of the people will also breathe large amounts of dispersed radioactive materal. This will line their lungs. I am not very certain what kind of immediate medical aid they will require but as time goes on these people will develop cancers. 3) Anyone who has an open wound will get radioactive material inside the body. This kind of contaminationis very hard to clean up. While people with skin contamination can be treated with a good hard scrub such is not the case with open wounds. Some more facts that i feel we will have to bear in mind. a) It is advisable to have Scrub Line just behind the FIRE BREAK LINE. Here we can clean people who do not have severe burns with some kind of industrial detergent. The patients with severe burns will have to be moved to a SEVERE BURNS WARD, where they will be tended to until they die. It is unlikely that any of the people with severe burns will survive. b) We must also remember that a large part of the surgical instruments, medical supplies and OTs will become heavily contaminated because of the environment. So we will need a set of dedicated OT cleaning teams. c) The part that you have said about rich people moving out of the city will actually be very diminished. In fact there will in all probability be no early warning on this. There is a liklihood of people breaking through the security cordon but a few quick firings coupled with instructions to proceed to the Triage Zone should stem the tide. Also the Police Stations in the areas around Vashi, and Thane will arrest anyone they feel is not from their jurisdiction. The same holds for PS's in Khandesh, Konkan, Deccan and northern Maharashtra. I expect that exfiltration from the city will continue for a long time. The red-alert on this issue will be inforce for a long time. The comparison to Latur comes almost immediately but we must bear in mind that during Latur the HQ at Mantralaya was still active and also the level of risk to the emergency workers was low. If you are putting together an article on Emergency management in Bombay, I would like to help you on that. Shiv please write to me at my email address. Narayanan,The National highway system as it stands can be used effectively for emergency management. The kind of system you suggest seems to cost a lot of money. Somanth,when i first put up this post i wrote this in bold letters. (janta.. what you read here will definetely upset you.. but kindly resist plastering this thread with angry remarks and general rubbish, if you feel like it please start another thread and revile me and whoever else you want.. but kindly do not do it on this thread, your specific comments esp. on things i may have got wrong/missed out are welcome) i am now reproducing it for your benifit. another way to look at it is.. if i need to hear what an old lady has to say about this topic.. i'll ask my grandmother.. from you however i would much happier to hear a more detailed analysis of the expected in terms of commercial losses. It is right up your alley. If you are interested please make a proper estimate of the following.. 1) Businesses that will be completely wiped out as all their assets are in bombay. 2) Businesses that will lose their HQ's and RHQ's but will survive as production and capital reserves are outside. 3) Who will feel the impact more, large industries or small scale projects. 4) Examine in more detail the impact of losing the BSE. I recall that several times in the recent past the BSE has had to be closed down, i would greatly appreciate if you or someone you know, could comment on the effect that had on the economy. If you choose to do this.. then please keep your answers specific and keep your anti-nuclear rhetoric as far out of the picture as possible. Sagar,In both cases Latur and Orrissa, i have noticed that the centre is slow to react and the response is Ad Hoc. This is something that sadly no central government seems to come up with clear answers for. In both cases the local administration was completely overwhelmed and the centre did not factor this into their calculations. It is actually senseless to try and operate an administrative machinery where the DM's and SHO's and ZP officials are on the run. It is better to just bring in brand new people at this point. The Mah. Govt. has woken up to this after the Latur quake, there is some kind of disaster management setup there(sharad pawar looked the other way after 1993. but after latur there was no choice).. but i am not too clear about the effectiveness of it. The centre.. i have no idea what the centre is / could be doing about this. So i am sorry i dont have a time frame on this. The DND put in place a requirement for a disaster management agency, perhaps Mr. B. Raman (who i now understand is a member of the NSAB) could shed some light on what has been done to achieve that aim. we definetely have the resources to manage the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, but a lot more has to be done in this regard.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 07 Jul 2000 23:14

Hi Ramana, I will do that and i will keep a back up of the this thread just in case. BTW ANYONE WHO IS IN BOMBAY. please access the phone book and in the section under Police please tell me what are the locations of the Wireless repeater stations. It may be that some of these may still be operational. Also i would like to know the names and locations of the SRP reserve garrisons in and around the city. Another thing would be to list the various medical centres in bombay. I want to be able to describe in more detail what centres will constitute the Triage Line, the Surgical Line and the Advanced Medical Care Line. This too can be obtained from the phonebook. also anyone who knows the deans of KEM/King George/Sion or a reporter in bombay could please try to access the Disaster Management Committee report that they submitted in 1994 to Shri Sharad Pawar. Also i would appreciate any information about PRIMARY(Mantralaya) and ALTERNATE ONE(Shahada).

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 08 Jul 2000 02:35

I found the responses to the article to be extremely sterile and not what I expect. NATO has had post nuke strike exercises for years and I can tell you that it's not as clean as people think it is.In short, you have to control the dying and the dead first before you can take care of the living.Okay, let's restict the action to a single nuke strike which would mean that India, as a whole, will survive. Japan survived after two nuke strikes. There's no reason why India can't.First requirement. Water and lots of it. You have to bring clean water into the area as fast as possible. That is your primary first aid. More survivors are going to die because of the lack of water more than anything else, not only to drink but to clean and wash down the contaminants as much as possible.Organizing the survivors. You will have to seperate the survivors into three categories. The walking wounded. Those who need immediate attention. And those who are going to die. The last category, you do nothing for. You leave them. Maybe, if you're kind enough, you can put a bullet in them but you can't afford wasting bandages, water, or other supplies. The living requires much those much more. Think that's easy? Tell that to a little girl who is watching her mother die. Unfortunately, the immediate aftermath of a nuke strike means that alot of people who could have been saved would be immediately lumped into the dying category.Find and get rid of all human and animal remains. The thing here is to transport the dead to a morgue or somewhere where insects and rodents don't have a chance at the bodies. Not an immediate thing but within a week, the bodies must be buried or burned, otherwise disease would become your next killer. And not just insects or rodents, desperate people might resort to eating poisoned meats, including human remains.A firm police/military presence. You will have alot of angry/hungry/dying/desperate people who no longer gives a damned about who's right or wrong about the war. They want food/water/medicine for themselves or their families and they would be desperate enough to kill for it. I guarrantee you that you will have to shoot men to stop them from taking food and water from children's mouths. You may even have to shoot children doing the same thing.You make a conscious decision not to rescue people after a week. They're dead anyways (at least you have to believe that) because they have been too far radiation poisoned. In other words, you're going to ignore the screams as you collapse a building to make it safe.After you get the mortality rate until control (and that's a self-sustaining thing - there might not be that many left to die), then, you can bring in the help you need to save who's left. It's not useful to spread what few resources you have trying to save a million people when you could only save a thousand and the best way to determine which thousand to save is to let Nature decide for you.Now, tell me that nukes are acceptable. I posted this reply for a friend of mine who wished not to be identified.

Kaushal · Post by **Kaushal** » 08 Jul 2000 03:10

Now, tell me that nukes are acceptableHitesh, i searched high and low in this thread and others, and I dont believe I have found anybody who is saying that nukes are acceptable. But contingency planning in the event of use by the enemy is prudent and in fact necessary, no matter how disagreeable it may be. This is the kind of thinking that is needed for all metropolitan areas, because you can rest assured that the enemy has already targeted all the major cities (long before POK II) regardless of whether there is a emergency plan or not. I was not impressed by the lead article because all it tried to do was to say how terrible nukes were - something most of us are aware. But if you dont stop there and have a disaster recovery plan, there is definitely a 'value add' in the discussion.Kaushal

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 08 Jul 2000 03:15

Hitesh,I would be most grateful if your friend could join this discussion under an assumed name. As i have said to shiv, i have thought about this stuff all alone.. so i would really be glad to have someone to discuss this in greater detail. I would also appreciate links to the NATO scenarios that you/your friend speak of. What precisely do you/your friend consider sterile? My comments. > In short, you have to control the dying and the dead first before you can take care of the living.the physical removal of (DeadBodieS)DBS and deposition beyond the FIRE-BREAK-LINE is the only solution i have at this point. If the MVR article is to be believed, instaneous casualties of 1 MD are likely and this figure will go up to 1.5 MD in three days. (I am multiplying the casualty figures by three). Conventional ideas of disposal will only increase contamination locally. The only hope is to load these bodies onto ships and sink them far out at sea. > Okay, let's restict the action to a single nuke strike which would mean that India, as a whole, will survive. Japan survived after two nuke strikes.There's no reason why India can't.Let us keep it simple and see what we can expect to a `first order'. Two nuclear strikes will be lot more to handle as compared to one nuclear strike. > First requirement. Water and lots of it. You have to bring clean water into the area as fast as possible. That is your primary first aid. More survivors are going to die because of the lack of water more than anything else, not only to drink but to clean and wash down the contaminants as much as possible.Yes true, but the existing water resources will be usable for activities like firefighting and washing. So we need only to bring in water for drinking. > Organizing the survivors. You will have to seperate the survivors into three categories. The walking wounded. Those who need immediate attention. And those who are going to die. yes that is to be expected. Medical care will shift focus to those most likely to benifit from it. A rule of thumb will be anyone with over 60% burns will left to die. > The last category, you do nothing for. You leave them. Maybe, if you're kind enough, you can put a bullet in them No this policy of killing the sick will bring us more problems.. ( i have actually thought about this). Firstly it will require a special unit to do this.. Something on the lines of the Einsatzgruppe A/B of the SS. This unit will have to walk through the hospital areas and physically exterminate the dying. There will be a lot of protest from various persons and more specifically it will put a lot of strain on the agents in this unit. All these factors combined with the need for constant resupplies of ammunition and sustenence due to their exertion will make this an inefficient excercise. We will most definetely see incident of assisted suicide and `mercy killing' but it is best not institutionalise this approach. This policy will be highly illegal, there will be no way to justify it in front of the Judicial Commision which will establish its working quarters as a part of Stage-III. > Tell that to a little girl who is watching her mother die. Unfortunately, the immediate aftermath of a nuke strike means that alot of people who could have been saved would be immediately lumped into the dying category.very touching, but yes this is precisely what will have to be done. > A firm police/military presence.true please see my point about the need for an aggressively run transitional police agency. > You make a conscious decision not to rescue people after a week. Yes that is correct, after the FIRE BREAK LINE is established, there will no resue efforts south of the FIRE BREAK LINE. All rescue and rehabilitation efforts will continue to the North. Anyone who can walk the distance will recieve medical attention.. the others will be sacrificed.. This is largely because given the state of resources, it will not be possible to deploy emergency workers south of the FIRE BREAK LINE. > After you get the mortality rate until control (and that's a self-sustaining thing - there might not be that many left to die), then, you can bring in the help you need to save who's left. It's not useful to spread what few resources you have trying to save a million people when you could only save a thousand and the best way to determine which thousand to save is to let Nature decide for you.I am not sure what you mean by this. The idea behind the effort is to do the best we can for the persons in affected areas.. This premise does not promise to save all lives. It merely commits us to a planned course of actions in a relevant timeframe so that some lives can be saved and the necessary framework for a recovery can be put in place. > Now, tell me that nukes are acceptable.okay Harsh.. what goes for somnath goes for you and your friend as well, this comment though relevant in the general scheme of things, IS NOT GERMANE TO THIS HIGHLY FOCUSSED DISCUSSION so please ask your friend to keep these comments to a minimum. And i stress again.. please ask your friend to take up psuedonym and register with the forum and join this discussion. [This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 07-07-2000).]

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 08 Jul 2000 04:24

Suni: <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>The kind of system you suggest seems to cost a lot of money.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> You sound just like my boss. Answer: "So does the lack of it: much more actually". With all due respect, I do not think you read my post and envisaged it. Lets see if the old thread can be recovered, if not I'll explain at length when that fine article of yours is being developed. Somnath: Congratulations on your new job. Missed you when all those stories came out about the Anantnag incidents. I thought you were out there demonstrating.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 08 Jul 2000 04:26

Some useful information for the article. Calvin, i read your suggestions let me see what i can do.I used the MVR figures to draw circles on a map. The figures i used were. 1) Ground Zero Zone: radius 1.1 Km. 2) Primary Fireball Zone: radius 1.66 Km.3) Second Degree Burns Zone: radius 2.14 Km.4) Effects of Prompt Radiation Zone: In MVR's calculations he takes this be less than the fireball radius, this actually reduces the number of casualties. But i feel more comfortable over-estimating the numbers. So I will artificially extend the Prompt Radiation zone to a radius of 3.14 Km. 5) Fallout Zones. at this point MVR assumes that evacuation is possible, I disagree. Evacuation will not be possible. This will increase casualties. a) Ultra High Fallout (3000 Rad/s) size. (5 Km long and 1.28 km wide)b) Very High Fallout (1000 Rad/s) (10 Km long and 0.5 Km wide). c) High Fallout (300 Rad/s) (24 Km and 1.28 Km wide).d) Median Fallout (100 Rad/s) ( 48 Km and 30 Km wide).e) Low Fallout (30 Rad/s) (87Km and 5.6Km)(This covers most of the north)6) Secondary Fires Zone. MVR does not discuss this. He uses the Superfires Model to do this dirty work. This approach does not give us the extent of area damaged by fires. MVR hints that the areas most affected will be the poorly constructed and wooden hutments and buildings. These are the areas just to the north of the Second Degree Burns Zone, areas like Parel, Wadala, Mahim, Dadar, and worst of all Dharavi. So based on this information i feel a very likely place to put the FIRE-BREAK-LINE. So using the Mahim Creek as a natural break, Mahim causeway on the west will be the cutoff point. From there on.. the FBL(FIRE-BREAK-LINE) can follow the western Express Highway, till it hits Nehru Road then follow that around the Santa Cruz Airport southern perimeter, to the point where it its LBS Marg, and down LBS marg till it hits Sion-Trombay road. At this point there is some open ground just beyond Sion Junction. This ground will be part of the FBL until it hits the BPT Road (newly constructed) on the other side just a few hundred yards south of RCF HQ at the Priyadarshani Bldg/ the Junction of EE Highway and Sion-Trombay Road. A segment of the Harbour line crosses the Sion Trombay road. This can be exploited too. There are several communally sensitive places lining the EE Highway and in the wedge between the EEH and Sion Trombay Road. Places like Thakkar Bappa Colony, Transition Colony Kurla, or the Bandra Kurla Complex these will instantly become flashpoints and violence will break out there. Given what i recall of the pattern of violence in the 1993 riots, I am inclined to believe that violence will spread laterally thru Bainganwadi, Dukes Colony up towards Mankhurd, centrally up along Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, kanjurmarg and Bhandup and on the west sensitive areas in Bandra, Andheri, JVPD. There will massive amounts of looting in the shops and businesses in most of the business districts there. Based on this estimate here is a list of hospitals that will most likely become unviable in the immediate aftermath. Hospitals totally destroyed. Aashwini Children's Hospital Lotlikar Building, 5/2, Near Citylight Cinema, Mahim, Mumbai PIN: 400016 TEL: 4482536 Atul Hospital Bharat Nagar, 26/A Grant Road, Mumbai PIN: 400007 Bombay Hospital 12, New Marine Lines, Mumbai PIN: 400020 TEL: 2031726 Dev Nursing Home S. Ghanekar Marg, Shilpa Apartment, Prabhadevi, Mumbai PIN: 400028 TEL: 4226399 Gokhale Hospital 3 Anant, Gokhale Road, Dadar, Mumbai PIN: 400028 TEL: 4225848 Indu Clinic Royal Terrace, 58, Nathalal Parikh Road, Colaba, Mumbai PIN: 400001 TEL: 2182323 Irani Nursing Home Jer Mansion, 7, 70 B, Gowalia Tank Road, Mumbai PIN: 400036 Jaslok Hospital 15 Dr G Deshmukh Marg, Cumballa Hill, Mumbai PIN: 400026 TEL: 4933333 Malpani Nursing Home Jamuna Sagar Building, S.Bhagat Singh Road, Coloba, Mumbai PIN: 400005 TEL: 2150649Masina Hospital Sant Sawata Marg, Byculla (E), Mumbai PIN: 400027 TEL: 3714889 Modern Hospital for Women Vimal Jyoti 6, William Street, Mumbai PIN: 400007 TEL: 3823502 P D Hinduja National Hospital S.V.S. Marg, Mahim, Mumbai PIN: 400016 TEL: 4449199 Pophale Nursing Home Indian Mercantile Mansion 6, M. Kama Road, Mumbai PIN: 400001 TEL: 2045353 Sir Harkisandas Narotamdas Hospital Raja Ram Mohan Roy Road, Prathana Samaj, Girgaon, Mumbai PIN: 400004 TEL: 3822702 Radhabai Chest Hospital 120 V.S.Marg, Mahim, Mumbai PIN: 400016 Wadia Hospital for Children Acharya Donde Marg, Parel, Mumbai PIN: 400012 TEL: 4125867 Shushrusha Hospital Dadar 4449161 4449162 Tata Hospital Parel 4146750 4127096 T.B. Hospital Sewree 4128440 Saifee Hospital Charni Rd. 3861418 3861419 Radhabai W. Ch. Hospital Mahim 4443942 4377814 Sion Hospital Sion 4090002 4090367 St. George Hospital C.S.T. (V.T.) 2620242 2620344 Raheja Hospital Mahim 4467570 4467569 Poddar Hospital Worli 4933533 4931846 Nair Hospital Mumbai Central 3081492 3081491 Kasturba Hospital Chinchpokli 3083901 3083902 K.E.M. Hospital Parel 4136051 4131763 Kothari Hospital C.P. Tank 3750957 Khamballa Hill Hospital Gowalia Tank 3630567 3633336 Manisha Hospital Byculla 3714890 3714889 M.G. Memorial Hospital Lalbagh 4132575 4140776 Muktabai Hospital Ghatkopar 5153771 5126088 Jain Clinic Girgaon 3829308 3884866 G.T. Hospital Dhobi Talao 2621468 2620560 Gopikrishna P. Me. Worli 4946647 4947837 Children Orth. Hospital Haji Ali 4920030 4923873 Cama Albless Dhobi Talao 2620288 2620390 E.N.T. Hospital Dhobi Talao 2042526 2043322 E.S.I.S. Hospital Worli 4933142 4932428 B.P.T. Hospital Wadala 4129684 4127947 Bhatia Hospital Tardeo 3071291 3071292 Breach Candy H.B. Desai Rd. 3633651 3623224 Animal Hospital Lalbagh 4133598 4131007 Hospitals that will be rendered at least temporarily ineffective or will have capacity very diminished. *******Parekh Hospital, Santacruz Bhagwati Hospital Borivali 8932461 8933740 Bhabha Hospital Bandra 6422541 6422775 Bhabha Hospital Kurla 5113144 5140241 B.A.R.C. Chembur 5513985Bhabha Hospital Chembur 5520333 5520334 Cooper Hospital Vile Prale 6207254 6207256 Harkishandas Hospital Prarthana Samaj 3855555 Homeopathic Hospital Vile Parle 6203249 Indian Medical F. Juhu 6212297 6206493 Inlok Hospital Chembur 5563270 5563269Muktabai Hospital Ghatkopar 5153771 5126088 Municipal Hospital Mulund (East) 5616225 5616226 Parsi Hospital B. Desai Road 3633641 3676652 Pragati Hospital Mulund (West) 5619356 5618857 Rajawadi Hospital Ghatkopar 5115066 5115067 Somaiya Prakalp Chembur 4090253 Suvarna Hospital Borivali 8052130 8052333 Turbhe Hospital Turbhe 7631827 Balabhai Nanavati Hospital S.V.Road, Vile Parle (W), Mumbai PIN: 400056 TEL: 6172286 Bharatiya Arogya Nidhi Hospital N.S.Road, JVPD Scheme, Juhu, Mumbai PIN: 400049 TEL: 6206493 Burfiwala Clinic Radha Narayan, 32 Floor, TPS 3, Bandra (W), Mumbai PIN: 400050 DasGupta Nursing Home Neem 12th Road, Khar (W), Mumbai PIN: 400052 TEL: 6483545 Gupte Surgical Hospital S.V.Road, Khar (W), Mumbai PIN: 400052 TEL: 6483025 H J Doshi Ghatkopar Hindu Sabha Hospital Shrdhanand Road, Opp. Railway Station, Ghatkopar (W), Mumbai PIN: 400086 TEL: 5124959 Holy Spirit Hospital Mahakali Caves Road, Andheri (E), Mumbai PIN: 400093 TEL: 8372748 Joy Hospital Road No. 10, Chembur, Mumbai PIN: 400074 TEL: 5557677 Kusumben Sarvodaya Hospital L B S Marg, Ghatkopar, Mumbai PIN: 400086 TEL: 5151022 Nayak Medicare 16, Maitri Vijay, opp. Basant Cinema, Chembur, Mumbai PIN: 400074 TEL: 5550905 Netaji Subhash Hospital Rajiv Apartment, Mumbai PIN: 400070 TEL: 5140526 R K Nursing Home Opp. Bus Depot, Santacruz (E), Mumbai PIN: 400055 TEL: 6120221 Rane Hospital Dana Laxmi Apartment, 37, Pestam Sagar Road, Chembur, Mumbai PIN: 400089 TEL: 5529638 Sona Hospital 82, Sita Sadan, Vakola Bridge, Santacruz, Mumbai PIN: 400056 TEL: 6428899 Agarwal Children Hospital Bandra (E), Mumbai PIN: 400050 Amita Nursing Home Ramgiri, 2&3 Road, Chambers, Mumbai PIN: 400071 TEL: 5552344 Anand Clinic & Nursing Home Phiroz Shah Road, Santacruz (W), Mumbai PIN: 400054Hospitals that will be unaffected. (this is an incomplete list).Airoli M.B.S. Centre Airoli 7690561 Belapur Hospital Belapur 7570181 Civil Hospital Thane 5341409 5342582 Dahisar N.A. Centre Dahisar 7412990 E.S.I.S. Hospital Mulund (West) 5649684 5645520 E.S.I.S. Hospital Marol 8320752 8324996 E.S.I.S. Hospital Kandivali 8877764 8877765 First Pre. H. Vashi Vashi 7669189 7669190 Municipal Hospital Mulund (East) 5616225 5616226Suvarna Hospital Borivali 8052130 8052333 Now we do the same for Ambulance Services. AMBULANCE SERVICES. Ambulance services that will be totally destroyed Edward Jones Ambulance Service Ready Money Building, Clare Road, Byculla, Mumbai PIN: 400008 TEL: 3071927 Girgaon Janta Kendra 249, Ram Nivas, J.S.S.Road, Mumbai PIN: 400004 TEL: 3881374 Golden Hour Project Ambulance Service, A/Twin Towers, 28th Floor, Veer Savarkar Road, Bombay Dyeing Compound, Prabhadevi, Mumbai. PIN: 400025 TEL: 4309055 Jalaram Bapa Ambulance Service Phool Galli, Bhuleshwar, Mumbai PIN: 400002 TEL: 2069601 Kokan Ambulance Service Near Nagpada Police Station, Nagpada, Mumbai PIN: 400008 TEL: 3093688 Kumar M Raut Ambulance Service 124, Ganesh Niketan, Dr M.B.Raut Road, Shivaji Park, Dadar, Mumbai. PIN: 400028 TEL: 4222763 Apna Development Society Shri Subhash Sefare, Naigaon, Dadar (C.R ), Mumbai PIN: 400014 TEL: 4139244 Arya Samaj Fort Ambulance 232, Bazargate Street, Fort, Mumbai PIN: 400001 TEL: 2612338 Ashok Mastkar Ambulance Service Shantaram Niwas, Gokhale Road (North), Dadar (W.R), Mumbai PIN: 400028 TEL: 4229531 Ashraya Charitable Trust Ambulance Services, B/Hanuman Terrace, 19, Tara Temple Road, Dr Bhadkamkar Marg, Lamington Road, Mumbai PIN: 400007 TEL: 3887758 Asmita Ambulance Service C/o, Bhatia General Hospital, Tardeo Road, Mumbai PIN: 400007 TEL: 3094050 Unique Club Ambulance Byculla 3760345 3713071Balshekhar Ambulance Service Tamakiwadi, Tardeo, Mumbai. PIN: 400034 TEL: 3073808 Bombay Hospital Ambulance Service 21, New Marine Lines, Opp. Liberty Talkies, Mumbai. PIN: 400020 TEL: 2067676 Blue Star Ambulance Garage Warden Road 3671331 3677518 Cooper Hospital J.V.P.D. Scheme, Vile Parle (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400056 TEL: 6207250 Deoditta Ambulance Service Opp. Victoria Church, Dilip Gupte Road, Near Konkan Nagar Hall, Mahim, Mumbai. PIN: 400016 TEL: 4466979 Shivsena Khetwadi 3886221 Shivsena Dadar 4135365 4131009 Shambhudayal Ambulance Tardeo 2082511 3729939 Saifee Ambulance Khara Tank 3466520 Swastik League Prarthana Samaj 3821532Edward Jens. Byculla 3071927Emergency Ambulance Service Dadar 4308888 4222040Golden Hour Project Dadar 4308888 4222040Girgaon Public Centre Girgaon 3881374Infectious Diseases M.G. Marg 3077324 3079643Mithaben Nenshi Dadar 4145034Maitri Mandal Trust Colaba 2833504Maratha Kala Mandir Mumbai Central 3712460Mobile Care Ambulance Bombay Hospital Marine Lines 2067676 2087128Sion Hospital Sion 4072737 4076381Accident Byculla 102Pregnancy Byculla 3076113Manohar Ambulance Service Dadar 4227763 4226475Parsi Panchayat Chowpatty 3675925People Mobile Ambulance Worli 4933759 4933792Parsi Ambulance Service Metro 2621666Rajasthan Welfare Nepean Sea Road 3681324 3629207Ravat Ambulance Service Shivaji Park 4447345 4442433S.B.S. Medical Trust Sion 4078147 4093453St. John Ambulance Chowpatty 3610836St. John Ambulance Fort 2662913 2662059Sadhubela Mahalaxmi 4927184 4923194Sion Sion 4076381 4072737Shivshambhu Masjid 3720806Swati Ambulance Service Mumbai 3869215 3871215Shivsena Fort 2612780 2616683Shivsena Mahim 4305847Shivsena Tardeo 3070767Shivsena Dadar 4447345Shivsena Naigaon 4139161 Ambulance services that may be rendered partially ineffective Ghatkopar Citizen Relief Committee Ambulance Service Near Ramji Ashar School, M.G.Road, Ghatkopar (E), Mumbai. PIN: 400077 TEL: 5128744 Indira Ambulance Service Shakha No. 105, M.B.Road, Opp. Jawahar Nagar Hall, Goregaon (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400062 TEL: 872106Irla Ambulance Service 189, S. V. Road, Vile Parle (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400056 TEL: 6286779 Jai Ambe Welfare Society Trust[Ambulance Services] Ambaji Mandir, Daulat Nagar Road No. 7, Borivili (E), Mumbai. PIN: 400066 TEL: 8934369 Janta Ambulance Service Girnar Building, Juhu Scheme Road No. 12, J.V.P.D. Scheme, Vile Parle (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400049 TEL: 6144809 Jivan Vikas Sahar Road, Kol Dongri, Andheri (E), Mumbai. PIN: 400069 TEL: 8343772 Kalayuvak Mitra Mandal Ambulance Service R.R.T. Road, Mulund (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400080 TEL: 5616484 Andheri Vyapari Mitra Mandal Ambulance Service, Vishal Road, M.V.Road, Andheri (E), Mumbai. PIN: 400069 TEL: 8386408 Arya Samaj Mandir Hall Ambulance Service, Linking Road, Santacruz (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400054 TEL: 6462076 Shivsena Andheri 6026405 6282258Bhandup Medico Ambulance Service C/o. Shrenik Hospital, Station Road, Bhandup (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400078 TEL: 5600843 Divine Life Society Ambulance Service 196, Marve Road, Malad (E), Mumbai. PIN: 400097 TEL: 8891475 Asmita Jogeshwari 8327561Asha Parekh Hospital Santacruz 6493737 6491203 Ambulance New Mumbai 7669189 Balaji Ambulance (Day and Night) Ghatkopar (East) 5135417 Bharti Ed. Committee Mulund (West) 5613180 5613329 Bhagvati Hospital Borivali 8932461 8932462 Bombay Samarpan Relief Service Bandra 6422076 Cooper Hospital Vile Parle 6207254 6205892 Citezen Committee Ghatkopar 5128744 5131884 Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Chembur 5514488 5510897 Divine Life Malad 8891484 Day and Night Ambulance Goregaon 8732823 Harishrai Jakhand. Bhandup 5601634 5601635 Hindu Relief Committee Ghatkopar 5153260 5153460 Inlex Chembur 5514266 5514268 Indira Ambulance Service Goregaon 8721993 8737372 Jivan Vilas Andheri 8340476 8343772 Kala Yuvak Mandal Mulund 5601185 5603436 Lonica Ambulance Service Vile Parle 6114395 6131245 Parla Ambulance Vile Parle 6206389 Ranisati Malad 8885515Shivsena Mulund 5601543 5614980 Shri Sai Ambulance Service Vile Parle 6209526 6204229 Sai Shivneri Goregaon 8732823 Subak Hospital Malad 8894184 8405529 Sus Travel Vile Parle 6141792 Shivsena Mulund 5644704 5670707 Shivsena Vikhroli 5838553 Shivsena Vile Parle 6042259 8343840 St. John Ambulance Bandra 6422076 Thattai Bhatia Kandivali 8070870 8892372 Vishal Andheri 6485676 6486511 LARGE SCALE CHEMISTS. Completely Destroyed Madan Sons And Company Hughes Road, Opera House, Mumbai. PIN: 400004 TEL: 3828508 Mumbai Kamgar Medical Store Opp Chitra Cinema, Dr Ambedkar Road, Parel, Mumbai. PIN: 400012 TEL: 4125428 National Chemist 206, Veer Savarkar Road, Mahim, Mumbai. PIN: 400016 TEL: 4440079 New Royal Chemists Liberty Cinema Bldg., 42, New Marine Lines, Mumbai. PIN: 400020 TEL: 2004051 Paradise Stores L J Road, Mahim, Mumbai. PIN: 400016 Royal Chemist Opp Marine Lines Station, Queen's Road, Mumbai. PIN: 400020 Apna Bazar Sahakari Medical 12, Latif Bldg, Dr Ambedkar Road, Naigaon, Mumbai. PIN: 400014 TEL: 4135428 Badri Provisional Stores 56, Khara Tank Road, Mandvi Road, Mumbai. PIN: 400003 TEL: 3764864 Bombay Medico Bhatia Hospital, Tardeo, Mumbai. PIN: 400007 TEL: 3086641 Ganesh Medical Stores 271, Kamal Deep, Shop No 2, Opp Sion Hospital, Sion, Mumbai. PIN: 400022 TEL: 4073267 Hill Way Drug Store Cumbala Hill, August Kranti Road, Mumbai. PIN: 400036 TEL: 3866926 Kemp And Company Limited Taj Mahal Hotel, Apollo Bunder Road, Colaba, Mumbai. PIN: 400023 TEL: 2023519 Chemists shops that are in a high fallout zone (Some of these shops will be looted, in anycase it is an open question as how many of much of the medical stock in these places will be usable).Manish Medical Stores Ganjawala Apts., Ganjawala Lane, Borivali (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400092 TEL: 8936912 Liberty Medical Stores Manish Nagar, J.P.Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400058 TEL: 6236663 Milan Medical Stores L B S Marg, Near Sarvodaya Hospital, Ghatkopar (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400086 TEL: 5152727 Navjeevan Pharmacy S. K. Patil Road, Malad, Mumbai. PIN: 400097 TEL: 6071238 Nitin Medical L B S Road, Bhandup (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400078 TEL: 5113199 Noble Medicals Asha Parekh Hospital, S.V. Road, Santacruz (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400054 TEL: 6494746 Pooja Medical Hindu Mahasabha Hospital, Ghatkopar (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400086 TEL: 5153260 Bandra Medical Stores Hill Road, Bandra (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400050 TEL: 6403230 Bhavani Medical Store Sardar House, 75/78, Rajawadi Road, Ghatkopar (E), Mumbai. PIN: 400077 TEL: 5128235 Chheda Chemist Tilak Road, Ghatkopar (E), Mumbai. PIN: 400077 TEL: 5137214 Day & Night Medical & General Stores Near New Era Talkies, S.V. Road, Malad (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400064 TEL: 6820353 Dilip Drug House Nanavati Hospital, S.V. Road, Vile Parle (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400056 TEL: 6123654 Dinesh Medical Stores Opp Bhagvati Hospital, Borivali (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400092 TEL: 8936912 Empire Chemist Empire House, S V Road, Vile Parle (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400056 TEL: 6120186 Khar Medical Stores Station Road, Khar (W), Mumbai. PIN: 400052 TEL: 6461329 SPECIAL MEDICAL FACILITIES. Completely Destroyed A to Z Diagnostic Centre 90, Daruwala Building, 1st Floor, Opp. Our Lady of Dolores Church, Marine Lines, Mumbai PIN: 400002 Anil Clinical Laboratory 10, Ram Niwas, Gokhale Road, North, Shivaji Park, Road no. 4, Dadar, Mumbai PIN: 400028 Central Clinical Laboratory C\o, Lata Mittal Hospital, 104, Pipe Road, Kurla (W), Mumbai PIN: 400070 Mehta Pathological Laboratory 28-A, Bharat Nagar, `A' Building, Maulana S. Ali Road, Shalimar Theatre, Mumbai PIN: 400007 North Mumbai Clinic Opp. City Light Cinema, Dinesh Building, 185/1-B, L.T.Road, Mahim, Mumbai PIN: 400016 Tata Memorial Hospital Parel. Partially Effective Facilities Bharati Pathological Laboratory Matdin Gourishankar Building, Old Nagardas Road, Andheri (E), Mumbai PIN: 400069 Ambika Pathological Lab 5/2, Hinna, Maneklal Estate, Ghatkopar, Mumbai PIN: 400086 Ankur Pathological Laboratory 106, Vikas, M.V.Road, Andheri (E), Mumbai PIN: 400069 Laxmi Diagnostic Centre -20, Swastic Chambers, Chembur, Mumbai PIN: 400071 Modern Pathological Laboratory Girja Bhavan, Swami Nityanagar Road, (Sahar Road), Andheri (E), Mumbai PIN: 400069 Paras Pathological Laboratory 29, Dhanesh Kunj, Nehru Road, Santacruz (E), Mumbai PIN: 400055 L C Manek Polyclinic I C C Unit, Parvati Palace, Shivpuri Compound, Near Chembur Akbar Ali, Chembur, Mumbai PIN: 400071 TEL: 5520396 Surlacks Laxmi Diagnostic Centre 18/20, Swastik Chambers, Sion Trombay Road, Chembur, Mumbai PIN: 400071 TEL: 5520103 Sanket Medical Centre Amit Nagar, Yari Road, Andheri, Mumbai PIN: 400061 TEL: 6268946 OXYGEN CENTRES> CAPRON AGENCIES Andheri(E) 8371164 / 8342439 PRAKASH OXYGEN Santacruz 6493865 SAIFEE AMBULANCE Bhendi Bazaar 3471189 / 346652 THE LABORATORY Tardeo 4941332 POLICE STATIONS Completely Destroyed/Incapcitated + List of sensitive areas as listed in SriKrishna Commission Report(I dont have data on several of these and sadly there is no way to get this kind of data.. the cops will never tell you this stuff). Azad Maidan 2620697 2620295 (Gol Masjid)Agripada 3078213 3070535 3070532(Overall Hyper Sensitive. Specifically: Kalapani Junction, Sakhli Street, Junction of Meghraj Shetty Marg and Baburao Jagtap Marg, Tank Pakhadi Road, Hindustan Masjid, Sunder Galli, Tambit Naka, Paise Street, S-Bridge, Dhobighat, Tank Pakhadi, Transit Camp, Tambit Naka, Khatau Mill Area). Antop hill 4074575 4074447(Suleman Compound, Sangam Nagar, Pratiksha Nagar, Bangalipura, Vijaynagar, Kokri Agar and Makkawadi)Byculla 3755264 3716399(Anjirwadi,Dattaram Karande Marg (Old Belvedre Road),Sitafalwadi, Kasargalli i) Bhoiwada 4125637 4121759 (Overall Sensitive Area) Colaba 2856817 2043702 (Sundar Nagari, Azad Nagari, Sudam Nagari, Darya Nagari, Geeta Nagar and Ganesh Murtinagar)Cuffe Parade 2188009 2183225Dongri 3719136 3753676(Overall Hyper Sensitive Area, specifically Umarkhadi, Keshavji Naik Marg and Nowrojee Hill Road No.9.)D.B. Marg 3872893 3867873 (Overall Sensitive Area)Dadar 4303654 4301403 Dharavi 4072646 4073988 (Overall Most Sensitive Area).D.N. Nagar 6232117 6230387 Dindoshi 8400784 8400781 8407016 Gamdevi 3670505 3680505 J.J. 3753762 3753782 3753761 Kalachowki 3754128 3715863Kherwadi 6423500 6426417 6407626(Bharat Nagar, Tata Colony and P.M.G. colony, Valmiki Colony). L.T. Marg 2080303 2084302 Matunga (East) 4010103 4011783 Malabar hill 3635517 3635513 3637571 M.R.A. Marg 2621313 2620759 2611939 Mahim 4453833 4456237 (Kapad Bazar, Dargah Street, Wanje Wadi, Lohar Chawl, Paach Peerwadi, Mori Road Zopadpatti and the vicinity of Chhota Dargah on LJ Road. Magdoom Baba Dargah, situated at the junction of Veer Savarkar Marg and Dargah Street)Nagpada 3095661 3092273(Overall Most Senstive Area)N.M. Joshi Marg 3084758 3085732 Oshiwara 6323861 6323862Pydhonie 3420505 3430505 3436114(Hyper Sensitive Area: Garibdas Street, Juni Bardan Galli, Kazi Sayyed Street, Janjikar Street, Raghunath Maharaj Street,Cheeky Street, Narayan Dhruv Street, Narsi Natha Street and Keshavji Naik Road) R.A.K. Marg 4145071 4126838(Sensitive Area: Sewri Cross Road, Sanman Nagar, Wadala and Zakeria Bunder)Sewree 3758163 3716139 3719807 Shivaji Park 4458309 Tardeo 4941109 4942142 4921942(Overall sensitive area: specifically Tulsiwadi, M.P.Mill Compound, Jijamata nagar) V.P. Road 3872525 3869719 3883103(Overall Sensitive Area: Islampura, Kika Street and J.S.Road, Gol Temple, Maulana Shaukat Ali Road which runs East-West is the border of this jurisdiction, The Northern footpath of Maulana Shaukat Ali Road falls on Nagpada VP Road border,Kumbharwada,Ahmed Omar Oil Mills area,Sayyedwadi)Vakola 6182936 6182756 Wadala 4125250 4127106 4147472 Worli 4930388 4948284 4939352 Yellowgate 2616578 2655012 Partially Effective (These places will face desertions and equipment failure). Airport Santacruz 6117309 6117315 Andheri 8221447 8221562 Aarey sub. div. 8401672 8400816 Bandra 6423021 6400917 Chembur 5221613 5227563Deonar 5568682 5563381 5516586( Shivaji Nagar, Bainganwadi, Lotus Colony, Rafiq Nagar, Sanjay Nagar, Kamala Raman Nagar, Padma Nagar, Zakir Hussain Nagar and Tata Nagar, Ram Mandir in Shivaji Nagar, Plot Nos.1 to 10 of Bainganwadi, Teachers' Colony, Municipal Workers Colony, Lumbini Baug, one pocket in Padma Nagar, one pocket in Saibaba Nagar and Sanjay Nagar)Dahisar 8932040 8955024 Ghatkopar 5153543 5113256 Khar 6494153 6496030 6494977 Juhu 6183856 6184308Kurla 5142868 5145478 5113182( Overall Hyper sensitive some communities have poor/no access by road)Nirmal Nagar 6423762 6400931 (Overall Hyper Sensitive Area, specifics: Indira Nagar, Navpada, Behrampada, Hussain Tekdi, Gausia Compound, Jaihind Nagar,Golibar Road)Nehru Nagar 5224291 5224147 Pant Nagar 5153624 5116687 Sahar 8221711 8221748 Santacruz 6492972 6493139 Sakinaka 8523936 8522334 Shivaji Nagar 5518961 5560402 5560098 Tilak Nagar 5527293 5529345 Vile Parle 6117301 6117317 6112813 Vikhroli Park Site 5784840 5786519 5786518 Vikhroli 5782240 5782492 5782189 Largely Unaffected Bhandup 5641301 5681442 Borivli 8010145 8012331 Goregaon 8721900 8723409Jogeshwari (West) 8360505 8221672 (Makranipada, Chacha Nagar, Andheri Plot, Bandra Plot, Koliwada, Ramgad, Pascal Colony, Prem Nagar, Colaba Plot, Jhula Maidan, Idgah Maidan Maharashtra Chowk, Radhabai Chawl, Shivaji Nagar,P.P.Dias Compound) Jogeshwari (East) 8328417 8329141 8300230Kasturba Marg 8057239 8059077 Kanjurmarg 5780753 5780944 5783999 Kandivali (West) 8056603 8020711 Kandivali (East) 8886119 8887624 8887618 M.I.D.C. 8368352 8394205 Mulund 5689844 5684535 Malad 8821147 8822946 Malavani 8820497 8822557 Trombay 5563382 5564371 Navi Mumbai Police Control Room 100 7574929 Police Control Room (Fax) 7574929 Vashi Police Station 7665346 76666159 Turbhe Police Station 7672794 7676375 Rabala Police Station 7692455 C.B.D. Police Station 7572209 7571158 Dep. Comm. C.B.D. 7570029 Nerul Police Station 7632030 Kalamboli Police Station 7423000 Uran Police Station 7222366 Panvel Police Station 7452333 Taloja Police Station 7412333 Traffic Police Station 7684860 Thane Police Control Room 5345959 A list of Fire Stations. Completely Destroyed Byculla Fire Station 3076111 Colaba Fire Stn. 2043603 Dadar Fire Stn. 4134200 Dock Fire Stn. 2611589 Fort Fire Stn. 2611942 Gowalia Tank Fire Stn. 3646001 Mandvi Fire Stn. 3716694 Memonwada Fire Stn. 3738818 Reolicamp Fire Stn. 4077841 Sewree Fire Stn. 3760756 Shivaji Park Fire Stn. 4457203 Worli Fire Stn. 4300178 Partially Effective Andheri Fire Station 6205301 Bandra Fire Station 6435206 Chembur Fire Stn. 5524824 Deonar Fire Stn. 5563391 Kandivali Fire Stn. 8050101 Marol Fire Stn. 8210940 8210941 Malad Fire Stn. 8071010 Mulund Fire Stn. 5687637 Vikhroli Fire Stn. 5170730 Navi Mumbai Fire Stn. 101 7660101 Thane Fire Stn. 5336702Details from Mumbai Police Official Site. <A HREF="http://www.mumbaipolice.com/vital.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mumbaipolice.com/vital.htm</A> Most important statistics.5. No. of local trains running on central line per day.(From CST to Karjat & Kasara.) : Down Locals : 532. Up Locals : 537. Total : 1069. 6. No of local trains running on western line per day. (from B'bay Central to Virar.) : Down locals : 490. Up locals : 473. Total : 963. 7. No. of local trains running on harbour line per day. (From CST to Panvel.) : Down locals : 427. Up locals : 427. Total : 854. This gives us a handle on the number of EMUs lying arround. assuming that all the trips take approximately 1 hour. This works out to about.. 120 Up Trains and that many down trains in hour on the tracks. There for there are about 240 EMUs on the tracks at any given hour. Other statistics. 8. Vehicular population.(1999) : 9,10,728 M.Vs. 9. Vehicular population (Including floating traffic) : 12,00,000. 10. Taxi population. : 12,00,000. 11. Autorickshaw population. : 91,622. 12. Car population : 2,84,964. 13. Two Wheelers. : 3,79,441 And a tourist Map. <A HREF="http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/mumbai/ ... ourist.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/mumbai/ ... ist.htm</A> a railway map. <A HREF="http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/mumbai/mumbai_rail.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/mumbai/ ... ail.htm</A> a road map. <A HREF="http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/mumbai/mumbai_road.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/mumbai/ ... oad.htm</A> a map of BSES assets. <A HREF="http://www.bses.com/option2.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.bses.com/option2.html</A> a list of BSES assets in bombay. <A HREF="http://www.mumbai-central.com/imp_info/bses.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mumbai-central.com/imp_info/bses.html</A> A list of BEST(ELECTRIC SUPPLY) assets. <A HREF="http://www.mumbai-central.com/imp_info/bestelec.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mumbai-central.com/imp_info/bestelec.html</A> Sources. 1) <A HREF="http://www.shivajipark.com/mumbai" TARGET=_blank>http://www.shivajipark.com/mumbai</A> 2) <A HREF="http://www.mapsofindia.com" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mapsofindia.com</A> 3) <A HREF="http://www.bses.com" TARGET=_blank>http://www.bses.com</A> 4) <A HREF="http://www.chembur.com" TARGET=_blank>http://www.chembur.com</A> 5) <A HREF="http://www.mumbai-central.com" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mumbai-central.com</A> 6) <A HREF="http://www.atlindia.net" TARGET=_blank>http://www.atlindia.net</A> 7) <A HREF="http://www.mymumbai.com/" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mymumbai.com/</A> 8) <A HREF="http://www.mmrdamumbai.org/infosys.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.mmrdamumbai.org/infosys.htm</A> (this is an interesting site, i want to see if i can find the references). N. Your detailed comments are welcome and eagerly awaited. My apologies for having misread your earlier post. [This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 13-07-2000).]

Sagar · Post by **Sagar** » 08 Jul 2000 05:13

Yikes!!!Kanak,We are discussing disaster management. Nobody is demanding that we take a few nukes and run towards the border. So relax. *****Such a disaster management team and plan if put in place will be able to function under other conditions as well e.g. earthquakes, cyclones, etc.Sunil,Clearly this has to be a different setup which will have carte blanche in the disaster area during a crisis and will need to be connected with all relief stations both medical and non-medical. It seems to me that it should be a volunteer force. The military can also have some disaster management units which can cooridnate with this group but it will be too busy fighting to do anything more.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 08 Jul 2000 05:31

Kanak,It appears you missed some parts of my earlier post. the questions you ask namely;1) long term economic, psychological, and military impact? 2) Would it just be the Mumbaiwallas that will die or would most of India starve to death in the following months because of a sudden and total economic collapse? 3) Would India as a nation (except Narayanan ) buckle under the images of a nuclear blast? 4) Has anyone measured the permanent damage to a nation's psyche that a nuclear blast brings? should be the topic of another thread. Some questions i feel somewhat certain about answers to. 1) Would the military have to turn around and stop fighting the enemy to help their fellow citizens? No. The effort will have to be managed mostly by civilians. The military will play a major role in this but to a great extent the process will have to be run by civilians. > Taking out ten Pakistani cities won't change a da*n thing and, depending on the wind direction, all that stuff might blow right back at us causing more death and destruction along its pathOff topic.. but this may not be the case, however it is wise to reserve further comment until a more detailed calculation is made. Another comment that i wish to add at this point is:- we will have to clean up any cities we hit on their side of the border, there will be no pakistani central administration left for this purpose. > WHAT THE H*LL ARE YOU FOLKS TALKING ABOUT?Calm down Kanak, no one has nuked bombay yet.. this is just a planning excercise.. a simulation. We are talking about the immediate disaster management aspects following the event. > Don't give me that US cities have lived uder this threat for 40 years cr*p. US and Soviet Union had a far more hooks in place to prevent exactly such a thing from happening. Guess what - it never happened. The two armies never confronted each other in any meaningful fashion. There it was all gamesmanship. Here it is real. Neither we nor TSP has the resources to put any of these provisions in place and the reaction time is far smaller.Kanak, now i remind you of this part.. (janta.. what you read here will definetely upset you.. but kindly resist plastering this thread with angry remarks and general rubbish, if you feel like it please start another thread and revile me and whoever else you want.. but kindly do not do it on this thread, your specific comments esp. on things i may have got wrong/missed out are welcome)of my previous post. The US and USSR did have plans for such a situation, and most of them are still in place. Just as their nuclear weapons (15000 or so) are still in place. The notion that soviet and allied armies never faced each other is fiction. They stared each other down all over europe. Also in the very early stages of the weapons race, the US-USSR `hooks' were as rudimentary as our own. > Don't be so cavalier guys. Human life is not a number on your screen. The fact that our enemies have nuclear weapons is a sobering thought. It must be equally sobering for them, chest-thumping notwithstanding. I am not sure what you mean by cavalier here. I am not even sure you grasp the nature and focus of the discussion here..by not thinking of this eventuality.. is one not being cavalier? (Yes i am turning your own argument against you). > We can't truely prepare for a nuclear attack so lets spend all our time and energy in preventing it and hope we don't live to see that day. Nobody is saying that you shouldn't try to prevent a nuclear attack.. by all means try.. we are merely discussing what will happen if people like you fail. That is an eventuality, that we must factor into our calculations.. we are not claiming that these weapons should be used and we are not claiming that they should not.. we are merely examining what will happen if they are used. This discussion is not for the faint hearted, let the few that can withstand it participate. The others can start a new thread titled "Sainis the Vile Warmonger" or "Sainis the Wife stealing, goat fu**ing. devil worshipper".. etc.. and vent their frustrations. But kindly let this highly focussed discussion proceed.... So again for the BENIFIT OF ALL THOSE WHO MAY HAVE MISSED MY EARLIER PLEA.. KINDLY DO NOT VENT YOUR ANGER HERE. PLEASE START A SEPARATE THREAD AND SAY ALL THE NASTY THINGS THERE.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 08 Jul 2000 05:41

Sagar,This will definetely have to be a different force than any before. The NEMA as i visualise it will be covered under a Nuclear Disaster Area Administration of Act. This will have a Special Powers(Prevention of Crime in Nuclear Disaster Areas). This act will have to come into force by presidential ordinance and will have to have meet parliamentary approval within a finite time frame. The NEMA can at present be constructed by inducting army officers from units that have participated in Disaster Management Operations in the recent past, Officers from the Min Surf. Transp., MHA , and specialists from the DAE, DRDO, Media, HazMat etc... I feel such an agency can be built up in a relatively short time. There will also have to be state level OEM/ EM Boards that will maintain control rooms and HQ's at all times. The present disaster management paradigm as i know of it from the media, places too much emphasis on the DM/DC being around to work. This needs to change. The task of Disaster Management must be handled by a higher more professional body.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 08 Jul 2000 05:47

In addition to maintaining a medical supply reserve. It would be wise to maintian a communications equipment reserve as well. This would contain radiation hardened equipment, small (non-battery powered) communicators. It would also be a good idea to have a special clothing reserve of disposable radiation suits. Given the numbers we need.. it would actually make a pretty nifty business for someone to run. I would estimate that we need a reserve of ~ 1 million such suits.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 08 Jul 2000 06:34

At the outset, let me point out that I agree with Guru: no one will attack Mumbai with just one warhead of 15 Kt. If its a Chinese attack, they will use at least a 200 Kt warhead, if not a 1 Mt warhead. If its Pakistan, it will be 2-3 warheads of around 15 Kt each, at targeted at BARC, Dadar and South Mumbai. But thats beside the point... lets try to imagine under Sunil's assumptions:>ALTERNATE ONE at SHAHADA What is SHAHADA? Do you mean the town of Shahaad in Maharshtra? (The reason I ask is because you have it in caps, is it an acronym?) I think any central authority would be based off Nagpur rather than anywhere else: the winter session of the Assembly is held there and its already a seat of govt. Distance is not a problem.>An airborne observer patrol must also be maintained. These units will ascertain the extent to which the railways and roads are usable. It is impossible to judge this from the air alone unless you are on the ground. The shock wave alone would be sure to take down the overhead lines. Also note that almost all of the local rail lines are lined heavily by slums which are typically constructed of wood, cloth and other heavily combustible material which is sure to wipe out any chances of the rail lines remaining functional.>an ABHQ team must be insertedWhats an "ABHQ"?>Pune Airport must become the staging area for all flights Unfortunately for an operation of this magnitude, Pune airport is woefully inadequate for the job. You need airports capable of taking in huge jets continuously. Possibly the nearby air force base can be taken over for the job. >t be cleared of all EMUs and carriages. This process must take no more than 48 hoursIMHO, this is way too optimistic considering the legendary efficiency of Western and Central Railway staff. It takes them at least 3 hours to repair a simple overhead wire snap. It took them 4 days to clear a derailed train once. What you are proposing is magnitudes larger.Another point that you have not considered is the location of the blast, given that it is around 15 Kt. If ground zero is say, around Kalbadevi/S. Worli or so, this would immediately take out most of S. Mumbai, but might leave the southernmost tips of Colaba, Navy Nagar etc intact. It would take out most of Dadar in the north, and so it will cut you off completely: note that Mahim causeway is the main access link of N. Mumbai to S. Mumbai, and so is the junction of Linking road and S. V. road. If you lose those two, there is no way that you can get to the residents of S. Mumbai except maybe by ship.> Operation Airport: A tALthough a good approach, have you considered using ships to ferry stuff in? Mumbai is an island, makes far better sense to make use of that. It need not be big huge containers trying to dock, small ships off loading from big ships to coasts of Khar Danda etc. is more than enough. Far more effective and a distributed approach than trying to use Santacruz or Sahar centralised way.>n outfit from SHAHADAWhats this SHAHADA anyway???? Blood supply is going to be woefully short, a national effort would be needed.BTW, you have forgotten about water, where will it come from? and how will you pipe potable water? For decontamination, we can use sea water, but what will you drink? The northern parts of Mumbai are always under perennial drought conditions... again weather would play an important role which should be taken into account.>Operation Morgue. Dumping bodies in the sea, although the quickest solution is not a very good idea. I am quite unaware of this issue, but what about contamination of the sea water by irradiated bodies of the order of 1 million at least? Whats the half life of a dead human body?In any case, the above was not to criticise your post which was an excellent starting point, but I feel that you are underestimating the effort involved.Another point that you have not considered in your analysis is the weather. If the attack is in the rainy season, the effect of the blast will be reduced but the relief efforts will be more difficult. Conversely if it is in summer, blast effects will be more, but there is going to be a massive shortage of water, which might prove critical.BTW your list of hospitals is compeletely misleading. It should be according to size ... 80% of the ones mentioned would have near zero utility..Some other factors that you may wish to consider:1. The bush telegraph in Mumbai is the fastest means of communication known to man. It beats an OC-148 link anyday. You might want some mechanism to stop the spreading of rumours and gossip2. The people from CRPF etc. who are going to be pushed into action might not want to do so. You might want to take into consideration that some companies might mutiny, some civilian machinery might refuse to obey orders or doctors refusing to treat patients.Narayanan's idea of using highways is the most hilarious and impractical. The govt. does not have money to build them in the first place what to speak of bomb shelters. But then, I can understand given his unfamiliarity with the realities in India. Incidentally, a question that has always piqued me is why is that the people most clamouring for nuclear war in India (under the guise that the effect of a nuke will be less than that of a religious riot..) are almost always settled in the west?.. ah well, thats a topic for another thread, lets keep this one clean as Sunil desires...------------------ Allakh Niranjan![This message has been edited by Tanaji (edited 07-07-2000).]

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 08 Jul 2000 06:38

Sunil et al: Previous discussion on "Emergency Response System": <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/ubb/Archi ... >Tanaji

Glad you are having fun. Sorry, no time to waste on your post. Nice try, though.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Jul 2000 07:34

Sunil I shall certainly email you with a draft of what I am writing up.I believe that in the eventof a nuclear bomb blast over say Bombay (or Bangalore - where I live - since discussion of an event over Mumbai seems upsetting to some) will have effects on two levels.1) The effect on the people within - say an arbitrary 10 Km of ground zero. Within this circle one would get the blast/burns and radiation injuries. There are some very relevant references to estimate the numbers and their behaviour. In that scale of disaster - IMHO one would be unlikely to get rational or organised behaviour among survivors. The hospitals in this zone, along with hearses, ambulances, electric and water supply would be rendered useless. The few walking survivors would try to migrate out of this zone.2) Those outside this 10 Km zone (my arbitrary figure - it would vary depending on the height and intensity of the blast) we would have a population that is largely intact - and in the 10-30 km zone people would know that something serious has happpened in the ground zero area. They are likely to have electricity (Grid/generators) water and communications. It is in this area where disaster managemant has to start.The behaviour of the people in this area could be one of two types a) Utter panic - word of mouth rumours about radiation and more nukes - leading to a mass exodus from these areas, even as survivors move in. OTOH we could have (b) - a more calm appraisal oon the lines of "OK something terrible has happened - but we are alive an OK - so what can we do to help"My guess is that there will be a mix of both types of behaviour and a mass exodus is unavoidable unless there is a degree of training and preparation in which agencies such as the Police, home guards and the medical fraternity could be assured (by whom? how?) that they should hang on while help arrives.India has a doctor-population ratio of 0.41 per thousand, and a hospital-population ratio of 0.7 per thousand, with approximately 80% of each serving only 20% of the population in urban areas. This works out to 16 doctors per 1000 and 28 beds per thousand in cities. Based on this - Bangalore could be estimated as having 112000 hospital beds - which is probably an overestimate - the real figure is probably about 25% of that. Even if 1/3 are destroyed in a blast, the remaining 20000 beds would be insufficient for management of the number of injuries. A specialist in the management of burns may be able to handle at the most 20 patients with severe burns in a day - and a city like Bangalore may have about 2000 surgeons capable of handling this. Assuming that half are eliminated by the blast, the the remainder would be unable to cope with the case load fully - and there is a real possibility that they would be overwhelmed by the workload in 2-3 days.Ruthless triage would be essential, leading to a build up of queues of dying outside hospitals, and piles of unattended dead. Lorries and buses would have to be rquisitioned to carry out dead and carry in supplies - and would have to be manned by volunteers, and led by police/home guards because it is likely that the Armed forces would be busy with whatever conflict is in progress.Each severe burn victim would need about 12 (500 ml) bottles of intravenous fluid a day - so we are looking as 20,000 full hospital beds requiring 240,000 saline/glucose bottles per day, and additional nurses to look after the changing of bottles and nursing needs. This is ignoring the many thousands of others who do not get hospital beds. If we assume that on average half the patients are to get 2 units of blood each - we would need 20,000 units of blood per day. Each unit needs about 2 hours of preparation time - so we need 40,000 unit-hours of blood bank work to be done in a day. It takes 20 min to bleed one blood donor - at 3 donors per hour one would need 6000 couches for 20,000 blood donors to get 18000 units in one hour. In practice a city may have about 200 blood donor couches - 600 units per hour - and if used continuously we would still only get 15000 units in 24 hours as against a requirement of 20000 units, and a theoretical total requirement of over 100,000 units. The number of testing kits and sterile empty bottles required would normally be unavailable unless they have been stocked outside at a reserve - and these would take 3-4 days to come in - too late for many.All in all - a frightening scenario. Like the Orissa cyclone - we can expect that a very large proportion of the injured will die - and ironically, and cruelly - disaster management gets easier if there are more dead than live people.Disaster management in this situation would be restricted to feeding and sheltering those who manage to get out of the city, and talking of rebuilding the city after radiation levels have reduced.Another question. Radiation drops off in intensity as decay occurs. What would be the effect of torrential monsoon rains on the residual fallout level?

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 08 Jul 2000 09:18

I just wanted to make the point that most have missed about MVR. He is a complete nuke disarmament sort of chap: <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>The only guarantee that such a tragedy would never occur is complete elimination of nuclear weapons, both from the region and from the world, and the means to manufacture them.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Shiv, Sainis: It appears that there is much in common between your articles. I'd say lets do Part I and Part II, where you talk about the management in the immediate aftermath of a nuclear attack, and then perhaps a week later. The other scenarios that would be worth investigating (if not in great depth) would be Biological weapons, Chemical weapons and Radioactivity weapons.Guru D: For 5 MT compare the affected areas by scaling with 2/3 power. Compared to the 15kT example, 50x more area will be affected in a circle that is roughly 7x larger.If we are talking about a 1mile radius, then you'll have a 7 mile radius for a Chinese 5 MT behemoth. Of course, the key thing is to note that the destruction is not going to be 350x as large as that of a 15kT weapons, as the linear mind makes it out be.For all participants, I'd like to thank them for excellent and reasoned contributions.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 08 Jul 2000 10:13

Tanaji,You have pointed out very important things, so let me clarify some things. 1) I chose the 1 15kt blast scenario because MVR has done all the calculations for the `zones of destruction' for this scenario. 2) I think at this point it is fair to designate this scenario with its own name. I think BOMBAY-1 sounds like an apt name. We can examine other scenarios and they can then be named accordingly, but then i request you all to focus on BOMBAY-1 for the present time. > What is SHAHADA? Do you mean the town of Shahaad in Maharshtra? (The reason I ask is because you have it in caps, is it an acronym?) I think any central authority would be based off Nagpur rather than anywhere else: the winter session of the Assembly is held there and its already a seat of govt. Distance is not a problem.Tanaji, i am not too sure of my geography, I have seen ST buses with the word Shahada on them, but all my relatives speak of a town called Shahaad. The TOI used the word Shahada so i used the same. I use capitals because it was an important name. The choice of Shahada was made by the Sharad Pawar government. From news reports i understand that the machinery for command and control is already there. I would object to a move to nagpur for that reason alone. Secondly, nagpur is too far. We will have to have an HQ at Pune anyway.. so lets keep it all at pune. The MLAs if they survive the blast... can come to pune. > It is impossible to judge this from the air alone True but a first order idea could be gained from a simple photo recon mission. I stress i am not very clear about the technical aspects so i would request further input on this. Could someone please tell me what type of aircraft would be ideally suited for this purpose and what its capabilities would be.. thanks in advance. >Whats an "ABHQ"?My apologies, ABHQ == Advance Base HQ. >Unfortunately for an operation of this magnitude, Pune airport is woefully inadequate for the job. True again, but IMO it will have to do. The least it should be able to land is IL-76's and Airbus A300's. As soon as we can re-take the runway strip in bombay, we will try to land bigger jets. Till then we will have to make do with A300's and IL-76's. > IMHO, this is way too optimistic considering the legendary efficiency of Western and Central Railway staffGood point. We will power down the entire line running into Bombay, this will speed up the work. But the problem of derailed trains is certainly a vexed one. My idea was simply to clear any local EMUs that are sitting on the track. I also realise that getting special cranes and the like down from Igatpuri will take at least 10 hours. In light of your comments i revise the estimate. 1) To clear the lines of any standing EMU's upto the nearest dearailment should not take more than 48 hours. 2) To clear the all the derailments on TWO lines must not take more than 120 hours.i.e in 120 hours the railhead must be open upto a point from where it is not possible to proceed because of severe track damage. > Location of ground Zero. I had consider VT/CST to be the location of Ground Zero. I fully accept your point about possible shifts in ground zero. Even if the Ground Zero was at Kalbadevi. We would still have a lot of casualties at Colaba and Navy Nagar. These would be as a result of secondary fires and more importantly from severe radiation exposure. I am really at a loss to suggest an option at that point, if navy nagar survives all this it may be possible to land medical teams there.. but to be frank, the chances of anyone surviving a dose of 3000 rad/hr are bleak. I believe there will little we can do for those people except to land medical teams and help treat severe radiation sickness. There can be no evacuation of those people, we will simply not have the ships for that. As soon as possible we will can send a road opening party past the FIRE-BREAK-LINE to the other side and establish road connections.. but that is all. > Operation Airport: A t> have you considered using ships to ferry stuff in? Mumbai is an island, makes far better sense to make use of that. It need not be big huge containers trying to dock, small ships off loading from big ships to coasts of Khar Danda etc. is more than enough. Far more effective and a distributed approach than trying to use Santacruz or Sahar centralised way.This is something i had not though about. I was allways under the impression that the ports will take a while to clear and most of the supplies would have to come by land or by air and hence my choice. (the navy keeps telling people that they are worried about not enough being done to dredge Bombay Harbour and i suppose after a blast of this magnitude, we will get a lot of wrecks in the harbour it may be a while before they are cleared out). I accept your point about ships being able to supply more, and would like to hear more about any information you may have on jetties and ports on Khar danda that may used to offload stuff. As i said earlier JNPT(Nhava Sheva) is ideally placed to aid in any operations and berthing facilities do exist there so a ship based transport of materials would be very useful. >Blood supply is going to be woefully short, a national effort would be needed.true. I believe i may be possible to use water from Tulsi, Tansa, Vihar for washing and firefighting. Drinking water will have to be brought in and yes for a few days anyone who drinks the water in the city will be very very sick. At this point, i would really appreciate data on how long it takes for water sources to become re-usable. I need to think more about this. >Dumping bodies in the sea, although the quickest solution is not a very good idea. The barges will be welded shut. They will be dumped in the deeper part of the sea say about 200 miles out. This should ensure that leakage of material will take place over a long period of time and that any material entering the water will undergo almost infinte dilution. Some amount of the material will enter the biological system through the predators(flora/fauna) that may feed of the bodies, but this will be far away from the commercial fishing grounds. We have to mark the dump site in someway. > weather.. Good points, i hadn't though about that. I shall think some about it and then post on the issue. > BTW your list of hospitals is compeletely misleading. It should be according to size ... 80% of the ones mentioned would have near zero utility..That list is incomplete, i am working on it, as you agree this is merely a starting point, and your comments are welcome. I also understand the other factors.. those will most definetely be testing times.. > Incidentally, a question that has always piqued me is why is that the people most clamouring for nuclear war in India (under the guise that the effect of a nuke will be less than that of a religious riot..) are almost always settled in the west?.. ah well, thats a topic for another thread, I am not `settled' in the US, i am here to study, after i finish that who knows what will happen. > lets keep this one clean as Sunil desires...thank you. Kanak,> Either you have decided to have this highly theoritical discussions with no bearing on real life in India or you wish to pull in reality at some point in time.This is a focussed discussion, which in all probability will strengthen your case for "never using nuclear weapons".. and yes sir, this is a theoretical discussion. It is making contact with reality, even the questions you raised are contacts with `reality' in some sense, it is just that they are too broad to discuss here. > Planning.. arre bhai it is a planning exercise.. we are not GoI planners.. it is a simulation.. kyon bhai meri baat samaj mey nahi aaye kya aap ko? Woh Chotte chotte bacchay kartey hain nah.. us tarah ka "exercise"... woh nahi kya.. kitaboan mey likhtey hai.. "this is a Cow".. that kind of thing... abhi toh samjhe aap? > Probability of the event.. how on earth does one calculate a probability for a successful nuclear attack? where is the sample space for something like that? > a high degree of anticipation of the attack.. yaar aap mujhe guarentee dey rahe ho kya?Aliter. are you willing to accept a guarentee from someone that such an event will not happen? i will be most grateful if you leave us alone to this little game. Whatever our conclusions are at the end of this exercise.. you will read about them.. I thank you for what i hope will be your last post on this thread. and oh yes..one last thing i have seen the people of bombay come through very difficult times.. so i am not willing to underestimate their ability in this case... so contrary to your assumption i feel after some time when they are permitted to gain their breath.. volunteers will come forth from citizens of bombay... and they will assist in rescue work. [This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 08-07-2000).][This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 08-07-2000).]

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 08 Jul 2000 11:47

N. Thanks for the link. I am a little short of time so i will peruse it over the weekend. Shiv,> I shall certainly email you with a draft of what I am writing up.cool, i have thought about this alone so long.. it will be nice to bounce ideas of someone.. > I believe that in the eventof a nuclear bomb blast over say Bombay (or Bangalore - where I live - since discussion of an event over Mumbai seems upsetting to some) will have effects on two levels.For reasons specified in the earlier post to Tanaji, let us stick to scenario BOMBAY-1.> 1) The effect on the people within - say an arbitrary 10 Km of ground zero. Within this circle one would get the blast/burns and radiation injuries. There are some very relevant references to estimate the numbers and their behaviour. In that scale of disaster - IMHO one would be unlikely to get rational or organised behaviour among survivors. The hospitals in this zone, along with hearses, ambulances, electric and water supply would be rendered useless. The few walking survivors would try to migrate out of this zone.I agree with this, in my thinking i factor in the fact that the 10 Km (Arbitrary distance) will infact have a gradation. So i split this zone into the FIRE-BREAK-LINE(FBL) to the south of which will lie the Zone Of Utter Destruction (ZUD). Beyond the FBL(to the north) will be the Triage Line. But yes as you said there will be scenes of tremendous suffering and uncontrolled behavior to the south and upto two kilometers or so north of the FBL. > 2) Those outside this 10 Km zone (my arbitrary figure - it would vary depending on the height and intensity of the blast) we would have a population that is largely intact - and in the 10-30 km zone people would know that something serious has happpened in the ground zero area. According to MVR's calculations, these people will have recieved a dose at the rate of ~ 2000-1500 Rad/sec. I donot think many will have a life expectancy exceeding a few years. > They are likely to have electricity (Grid/generators) water and communications. It is in this area where disaster managemant has to start.I recall that the power supply mechanism is set to trip if there is a very large load. So my guess it although the power station at DAHANU will be operational, its control systems will have tripped power to the City. > The behaviour of the people in this area could be one of two types a) Utter panic - word of mouth rumours about radiation and more nukes - leading to a mass exodus from these areas, even as survivors move in. OTOH we could have (b) - a more calm appraisal oon the lines of "OK something terrible has happened - but we are alive an OK - so what can we do to help"again absolute agreement on this point. > My guess is that there will be a mix of both types of behaviour and a mass exodus is unavoidable unless there is a degree of training and preparation in which agencies such as the Police, home guards and the medical fraternity could be assured (by whom? how?) that they should hang on while help arrives.again good point.. and same questions to my mind as well. I feel a programme of training Medical personnel to deal with this is necessary, we will have to have radiation medicine courses taught to everyone in medical and nursing schools and refresher courses to people who are already employed. > India has a doctor-population ratio of 0.41 per thousand, and a hospital-population ratio of 0.7 per thousand, with approximately 80% of each serving only 20% of the population in urban areas. This works out to 16 doctors per 1000 and 28 beds per thousand in cities. Based on this - Bangalore could be estimated as having 112000 hospital beds - which is probably an overestimate - the real figure is probably about 25% of that. Even if 1/3 are destroyed in a blast, the remaining 20000 beds would be insufficient for management of the number of injuries. A specialist in the management of burns may be able to handle at the most 20 patients with severe burns in a day - and a city like Bangalore may have about 2000 surgeons capable of handling this. Assuming that half are eliminated by the blast, the the remainder would be unable to cope with the case load fully - and there is a real possibility that they would be overwhelmed by the workload in 2-3 days.This is exactly the figures i am trying to put together for BOMBAY-1. I need more time for that. I feel most of the medical facilities in the city will be useful only for Triage and nothing else. Most of the Advanced Care will have to outside the city. It may be possible to increase the number of Medical practioners by setting up a Volountary Medical Service, by which we can maintain a list of doctors and nursing staff who can be called upon in times of emergency. > Ruthless triage would be essential, leading to a build up of queues of dying outside hospitals, and piles of unattended dead. Lorries and buses would have to be rquisitioned to carry out dead and carry in supplies - and would have to be manned by volunteers, and led by police/home guards because it is likely that the Armed forces would be busy with whatever conflict is in progress.true. BTW what exactly is triage today? Perhaps it is possible to define a specific triage procedure for this eventuality? > Each severe burn victim would need about 12 (500 ml) bottles of intravenous fluid a day - so we are looking as 20,000 full hospital beds requiring 240,000 saline/glucose bottles per day, and additional nurses to look after the changing of bottles and nursing needs. This is ignoring the many thousands of others who do not get hospital beds. If we assume that on average half the patients are to get 2 units of blood each - we would need 20,000 units of blood per day. Each unit needs about 2 hours of preparation time - so we need 40,000 unit-hours of blood bank work to be done in a day. It takes 20 min to bleed one blood donor - at 3 donors per hour one would need 6000 couches for 20,000 blood donors to get 18000 units in one hour. In practice a city may have about 200 blood donor couches - 600 units per hour - and if used continuously we would still only get 15000 units in 24 hours as against a requirement of 20000 units, and a theoretical total requirement of over 100,000 units. The number of testing kits and sterile empty bottles required would normally be unavailable unless they have been stocked outside at a reserve - and these would take 3-4 days to come in - too late for many.This is very important.. this is the first time i have seen this calculation.. it is indeed a distressing scenario. A few things do come to mind. 1) What is the percentage burns can be classified as surely fatal in normal circumstances? 2) At this point, it will be impossible to prevent re-use of equipment. As a matter of fact it takes place even today. So we will have to neglect that and come up with a total estimated size of the total saline reserve. 3) Blood.. we will have to push for donation in the surrounding areas. There may not be adequate time testing so we will just have to risk infecting people (either that or we will have to watch them die). > Disaster management in this situation would be restricted to feeding and sheltering those who manage to get out of the city, and talking of rebuilding the city after radiation levels have reduced.Shiv, i feel we will have to demolish the buildings and possible cart of more waste into dumping sites at sea. The demolition operations would result in large clouds of dust so it will have to be done very carefully and slowly. This can proceed only after Radiation teams have identified the zones and classifed them into Very High Radiation Area, HRA, Dispersed Contamination Area, Radiation Area, and Controlled Areas.This will be possible only after the fires are out. > Another question. Radiation drops off in intensity as decay occurs. What would be the effect of torrential monsoon rains on the residual fallout level?The monsoons will wash off some of the contamination into the sea. This will to some extent find its way into the eco-system but to a large measure it will be diluted immensely. The rains will also help put out some of the fires(except those from gas cylinders). Because of the monsoon some of the radioactivity will enter the ground water supply. When that happens.. we will have to come up with a long time monitoring programme for ground water in the area and it will be a while before it is safe to use.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Jul 2000 17:04

Sunil - you ramana and other admins will receive a draft fairly soon - I am redoing parts based on the discussion here.Triage is a patient prioritizing system that has to be resorted to in situations where massive numbers of injured people are being brought in to an area with limited resources. There are ethical problems related to triage that are difficult to answer.Patients are quickly assessed and categorized into three groups.1) The slightly injured (walking wounded) who can wait a bit for treatment.2) The nearly dead, or those who are likely to die despite treatment.3) The severely injured who need urgent treatment now and who may be saved.Group 3 get urgent treatment. Group 1 will wait. Group 2 are allowed to die.Check this link <A HREF="http://www.ulib.org/webRoot/Books/Natio ... war271.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.ulib.org/webRoot/Books/Natio ... 271.htm</A>

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 08 Jul 2000 20:39

According to Shiv's figures, there are on average less than 2 doctors per hospital in India. Implications: Overcounting of hospitals? Undergounting of doctors? Some hospitals entirely devoid of doctors? (there was a BBC "Yes Minister" show on the "most efficient hospital in the UK")So many hospitals with only one doctor that the major city hospitals get averaged down to this ratio? In the last case, the implications for facing disasters with hundreds of wounded, are even more frightening. Would it be part of the emergency planning to identify every medical student beyond the 2nd or 3rd year of medical school, and every student in nursing schools as an emergency-response "volunteer", assigned an Action Stations reporting location and a beeper?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Jul 2000 20:48

Sorry Narayanan - and thanks for pointing out a typo - the ratio (.7 per thou) is hospital beds per thousand - and not hospitals per thousand as I have written . The reference was taken from a standard textbook that I own. My apologies to all who have to get confused by a silly typo.

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 08 Jul 2000 21:02

Ok, that makes more sense as numbers, but is still more frightening. What is your opinion on the capability of medical students (at what stage?) to serve as emergency physicians, and even surgeons? They have to be a lot better than the average person who was afraid to touch frogs, alive or dead (me, for example), and they'll at least have watched doctors perform. I think the modified answer to the lack of hospital beds is mass-production of military field-hospital facilities, for storage at locations along highways and near train stations. The buildings are not the issue: tents can be put up after the event, very quickly. The calm, knowledgeable person giving clear orders is the most valuable resource in such cases. Re: "Triage": I've read an account by Eddie Rickenbacker, the late Chairman of Eastern Airlines, amongst many other achievements, where he was lying under the wreckage of a plane crash, and the first rescuers who came by him said: "This one's hopeless: lets find someone whom we can save". A terrible thing for a survivor to hear. I'd take a 3rd year medical student as my doctor at that point, no complaints. Comments?

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 08 Jul 2000 22:27

Sunil, I think, as a first order of business you should first decide on ground zero for a 15 Kt explosion. The location of ground zero would be immaterial for say, a 5 Mt nuke or a couple of 200 Kt nukes, but is essential for a solitary 15 Kt nuke. That done, we can then analyze with a map as to what areas will be affected and what can be saved and how.I propose a worst case scenario for the location of ground zero: somewhere around N. Dadar which is approximately the center of the city. This will cause max casualties and will severely hamper relief efforts. If the above sounds OK, let me know and we can go from here.------------------ Allakh Niranjan!

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 09 Jul 2000 00:26

An airburst does not leave large amounts of radioactive debris that needs to be "dumped into the ocean". In fact, the airburst over Hiroshima left very little radioactive debris or "fallout". An airburst gives out an initial high burst of radioactive waves that can be very deadly, but it doesn't hang around.A burst on the ground, or worse, in the water, produces an enormous amount of radioactive material and throws it into the sky. My step dad was at the Bikini atoll tests on a ship near the blast. He had to take 3 showers before his hair quit pinging the gieger counter. Not good. He had cancerous lesions in his scalp when he became an old man. You also need to be aware of nuke tests done in Nevada with Army troops. The results were very interesting. Unfortunatly, the troops developed many cancers later in life. The children downwind in Utah also had a horrible lukemia rate. - TJ

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 10 Jul 2000 07:07

Shiv,I am still going through the material you sent in, so i'll take some time replying to you. Narayanan,I think med-school students will have to be used.. atleast as nurses in the Triage Zone. Tanaji, I am really averse to shifting the Ground Zero from MVR's article as he has done a lot of calculations using the VT fort as the ground zero. I agree with your point about using North Dadar as a more realisitic impact point but then we have to all those calculations that MVR did over again.. some of which I most certainly don't know how to replicate. If we can recalculate all those things yes we can shift the Ground Zero. The things i have trouble with are the fallout zones.. that will depend on things like wind etc.. i really don't know how he has calculated those figures.. and i dont know how they scale. TSJones,I am assuming that it is a dirty burn, the point being what if anything can be done about the disposal of large amounts of radioactive debris? my suggestion.. dump it out into the sea. It may be too time and manpower consuming to actually seperate debris into radioactive and non-radioactive.. so for example.. zoning crews would delineate areas according to the level of radioactivity present there.. in areas above a certain level... it will simply be much less hazardous for clean up crews to quickly push everything into containers and cart them off to a boat..

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 10 Jul 2000 07:18

Jones: You bring up a basic point regarding an airburst. Anything other than an airburst at optimum height means that the blast and heat damaged area is considerably less. Of course, there will then be fallout.Sainis: It might be even more practical to zone off the contaminated areas for about 2 months, than to dump all the material into the sea!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 10 Jul 2000 15:41

Quote from one reference:""If the dose rate 1 hour after an explosion is 1000 R/hr, it would take about 2 weeks for the dose rate to be reduced to 1 R/hrsolely as a result of radioactive decay. Weathering effects will reduce the dose rate further,' for example, rain can wash fallout particles from plants and houses to lower positions on or closer to the ground. Surrounding objects would reduce the radiation dose from these low-lying particles. Within two weeks after an attack the occupants of most shelters could safely stop using them, or could work outside the shelters for an increasing number of hours each day. Exceptions would be in areas of extremely heavy fallout such as might occur downwind from important targets attacked with many weapons, especially missile sites and very large cities. To know when to come out safely, occupants either would need a reliable fallout meter to measure the changing radiation dangers, ormust receive information based on measurements made nearby with a reliable instrument."(Nuclear War Survival Skills by Cresson Kearny)"

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 11 Jul 2000 05:06

Shiv,Take a look at Kanak's link, the information about injuries is organised in a fashion similar to the one i recommended. Kanak, I apologise for any negative and offensive remarks earlier and thank you for the informative link more of the same will be welcome. However i stand by my request to adhere to the BOMBAY-1 Scenario... any scenario will definetly be worse than that one. your points about supply chain issues are valid.. we need to flesh out to some degree how this supply network works.. For example it may be a good idea to shift godowns and landing sites for medical supplies to Nhava Sheva. this would make them less vulnerable in the event of an attack. Chaitanya,I so not believe evacuation is an option. I do feel we will recieve a lot of help from outside, but we will need to coordinate it properly. I recall accounts from Latur, where there was a lot of help from outside and some went waste because of poor coordination.

Faizi · Post by **Faizi** » 11 Jul 2000 08:56

Sunil : I have a couple of questions for you. 1. Your entire disaster management scenario is based on the assumption that you can use the people already affected by radiation fatally in the LONG TERM for disaster management. There is a real probability that they might completely refuse to cooperate in the clean up effort. What do you think can/should be done in such a case? 2. There are certain ethical implications to this proposal. The effects of radiation on the human body are not completely well understood... consequently making a statement that the affected people will all die within 5-10 years may be incorrect. Also, you are forcing people with a possibility of at least these many years of living to commit voluntary suicide. This seems to be a faustian bargain to me. So, is it right to force people with a chance to live for at least another 5-10 years or possibly even longer, to go to almost certain deaths within a much shorter time? I think such an issue must be addressed before one decides on a particular disaster management plan. 3. This is a bit off topic, but it might be that you will no longer have a Parliament or government and military command to implement and oversee the implementation of your disaster management law.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 11 Jul 2000 09:12

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>Originally posted by Faizi: Sunil : I have a couple of questions for you. 1. Your entire disaster management scenario is based on the assumption that you can use the people already affected by radiation fatally in the LONG TERM for disaster management. There is a real probability that they might completely refuse to cooperate in the clean up effort. What do you think can/should be done in such a case? 2. There are certain ethical implications to this proposal. 3. This is a bit off topic, but it might be that you will no longer have a Parliament or government and military command to implement and oversee the implementation of your disaster management law.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Faizi,some answers from my side. 1) I don't know what will be done in the event that people cannot be motivated to carry out the clean up work. It seems very unlikely to me that people will refuse to do so. I base this statement on readings of past disasters in bombay and in several other places in india. In all the cases i have read about people have come forth to help. But yes you are correct that this entire exercise is impossible without collaboration from the locals. on a more practical level, i suppose we could start a food for work programme to elicit cooperation. 2) To quote mr. Richard Helms.. "I have no answer to the moral question". 3) As you said "Off Topic". That is all.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Jul 2000 15:42

Sunil - I had a look at kanak's link. It basically summarizes what I found in very great detail on other sites - and I have downloaded those whole sites for ready reference. The distances are interesting - and they are for a 20 megaton bomb on an Americal city. It is likely that the distances will be somewhat smaller with a 15-30kT bomb.Check this if you have not already seen it: <A HREF="http://www.ulib.org/webRoot/Books/Natio ... uclear.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.ulib.org/webRoot/Books/Natio ... ear.htm</A>

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 11 Jul 2000 19:29

Faizi and Sunil: There is a simple answer to your moral and ethical dilemma: You should have asked those of us who don't suffer from such afflictions in the case of dealing with Paki terrorists. At any time, there are probably a couple of thousand TSP terrorists in Indian jails. Surround the contaminated zone with armed vehicles with people wearing radiation suits. Dump the TSP terrorists deep inside the contaminated zone and tell them that each will be allowed out only if they have completed a certain number of tasks. As the numbers dwindle, replenish these with more captives from TSP. You both overlook a fundamental aspect of this "20kT nuke attack on Mumbai" business: after that, there will be no TSP as we know it, and little value put on the lives of surviving TSP residents.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 12 Jul 2000 00:46

Kapil,> I reside next door to ESIS Hospital Mulund.Relieved that I was that Mulund would be less affected than the town's centre ,my joy evaporated when a friend told me today morning that ESIS is always short on basic bandage material.Hospitals wont be able to deal with the overwhelming number of casualties.Can you please ask your friends there at ESIS the following questions? 1) What emergency plans do they have? My guess is that after the bombay blasts they will definetely have something. 2) What is the amount and type of medicines they have in stock? I fully understand the comments about bandages, but is it possible to get some numbers for things like pain killers, antibiotics, and other drugs that may be used in emergency rooms. 3) I would also be interested in any information about the supply chain issues that Kanak raised about medical supplies.I would appreciate any other inputs they have as well. > Regarding medical students,as most of their colleges are attached to hospitals,you have to write off a college if its hospital happens to be in affected zone.Yes that is correct, i was wondering if you could research the names and numbers of hospitals and medical colleges outside bombay within a 150 Km of the city. I dont have any sources on this. Also some of the colleges have hostels where the students stay this information would be useful as it would tell us which ones would be able to bring people quickly. > Also as others have pointed out you need to upgrade your estimate of a single 15kt weapon being dropped on the city.true.. but i need someone to do the fallout calculations for that. I dont know how to do that.. until then i am stuck with BOMBAY-1. >Some more observations from someone on the ground here:> A)The main fruit and vegetable markets have been relocated to Vashi.They are known to carry buffer stocks which can keep people going for 3-4 days.Also they are linked via the Pune Highway to agrarian highways so they can be resupplied regularly.My question is what happens if BARC is taken out and the Vashi area gets affected?Then in that case depending on the level of fallout we lose 3-4 days of food. There is another problem:- the food in itself is meaningless without water and gas to cook it... so the whole thing becomes quite complicated even if we have the food. > B)As someone said rail tracks are bordered by slums and anyway with a slight drizzle,train services are afected by 3 hours!.What impact will a nuclear attack have?I feel you should just give up the rail resupply route.No.. i feel the rail routes must be cleared all the way up to the Triage Line.. that is the only way we are going to get enough supplies in. The problem of hutments surrounding the lines starts to the best of my memory from Kurla on the Central and harbour and Sion on the western, undoubtedly these hutments will catch fire.. therefore the Line Opening Parties will have to be preceeded and accompanied by Fire Suppression Teams. > C)As you mentioned Lohegaon should be able to handle IL-76s.It can and it will.But any idea as to how many relays of aircraft will be required Especially IL-76s?If a conflict is raging,won't using IL-76s deprive us of the only capable long range transport?Yes it is possible that we run short of IL-76's but We can steal aircraft from all the domestic carriers, IA, AI,Alliance,NEPC,Jet etc.. and we can wet lease stuff from other airlines. Now that i think of it, it is probably a good idea to ask Domestic Carriers to shift their Hubs to someplace other than bombay. > D)As a first step I feel that the number of blood banks in the city should be increased considerably and people made aware of the benefits.We are very notorious when it comes to Blood Donation.People just don't care.Perhaps the city is not the appropriate place.. a better place would be in regions around cities in the villages and the like. > E)Thane and Vashi are being connected by rail as an extension of the Harbour line network.That might be a good rail link to consider.Harbour will play an important part in the scheme of things. All the stuff that lands at JNPT will make its way via the Harbour line. > I agree that Bombay is a node and used as a staging/supply area and unused to being aided by other towns.Kapil there are several advantages as well. Every two days there is a Truck-In.. i.e a period when a very large number of private trucks enter the city and then after a day or so they leave. These vehicles will come in handy in the event of this magnitude. A lot of the Truck-In vehicles are empty.. so they can be used. Aliter a lot of the truck out stuff is full and they can be stopped at various point and sent back with supplies to bombay. You get my point here.. > G)Also inspite of the numerous flyovers being constructed,there are still massive traffic snarls occuring on a daily basis these days especially at the Chembur-Kurla-Sion junction.I am actually quite apprehensive about those flyovers, the rubble from them will block up the roads and will take a long time to clear up.. but that is the price of progress. Upside all that concrete will make good landfill eventually. > Thats it for now,Sunil.Do drop me a line at [email protected] if you need anything more.Would be grateful if i can get a peek of your draft first Sure.. I'll put you on the bcc for BOMBAY-1.Sunil> PS--I'll see if i can obtain that report by the Maharashtra government which you mentioned earlier.Oh boss.. it will be really cool if you can get that.. The report as i recall said something about creating multilayered ambulance services.. and grading hospitals and starting a Diploma course in Emergency Medicine among other things..

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Jul 2000 07:58

There is no harm and plenty of good in developing disaster management resources in any city including Mumbai.One of the problems I see in developing specifically post-nuclear attack management within a city is the unpredictabilty of where a nuke may hit. One cannot assume that a missile will be really accurate - and wildly inaccurate hit may occur - and more than one. For this reason, while I am all for developing disaster management plans everywhere - the nuclear disaster management plan IMHO must address getting resources from outside the main city itself.[This message has been edited by shiv (edited 11-07-2000).]

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 13 Jul 2000 11:22

Kapil,> Its raining here all night and everything is out of gear as usual.Man... i saw the pictures.. it looks pretty heavy... i guess it is the mid monsoon three week period. > Also the Home guards/TA etc are a neglected lot.Do you know where the homeguard cantonments are ? I know of one near Asalpha off Agra Road. Is it possible to find out from the Phone book? > So you can rule them out too. regarding industry,Heavy enginnering firms like L&T and godrej are in dire straits.Big companies like Godrej, L&T, Siemens, Premier Auto Ltd., Mukand Iron and Steel, RCF, Crompton and Greaves, Phillips etc.. will be able raise capital from outside and rebuild their operations.The ones who will take the biggest hit will be small scale manufacturing.. of which there is an ENORMOUS amount in bombay. These guys, and textiles will take a big big hit. Quite a few of them will be wiped out. This sector will take quite a while to rebuild. Most of these enterprises for historical reasons lie in the south and central parts of bombay. A lot of their work force comes from the suburbs so the suburbs will take a big hit as well. We would also lose a very large part of our hardware markets and trading centres, the entire complex of godowns and wholesale shops near Masjid, Crawford Market, Abdul Rehman Street, Lohar Galli etc... will be lost. This is an economic activity that is vital to the nation but unfortunately i doubt it is possible to move this market. It would make things a lot easier on everyone if these markets were moved to someplace near Uran. That in turn might force the SSI's to move as well.. it will ease the pressure on the city and will develop a lot more areas around bombay as well. Almost all of our stock market trade and brokerage firms would also be lost, along with the HQ's of a lot of the top investment and insurance firms. We will also lose RBI HQ and several of our banks. Both the BSE and the NSE would be lost. We will also lose a part of our gemstones market. The services sector would be hit as well but it may be possible to rebuild that a lot quicker. To resuscitate the economy will prove a difficult exercise but things like Tax breaks to Indian companies and other inventestment incentives to foreign companies, and the creation of a free economic zone etc... could aid matters. regarding the BSE and the NSE.. well.. here is my take...The intermediate term prospects are quite grim, but in the immediate term we will probably have the following. 1) The loss of the most advanced trading facility in india is a major thing in itself. It will be a while before we have something like it in place. 2) The loss of traders would deeply affect how trading is done in india.. a lot of information relating to trading issues will have been almost completely lost. many of the people who do this stuff have been in the business for years.. It will take a long time to rebuild this. 3) Many of the companies listed on the NSE and the BSE will be wiped out. The big companies will also have to face dropping prices as their management and assets will be destroyed or incapicated. These factors will make for a stock crash in india.. the likes of which have never been seen before. This will impair investor confidence and several very severe short-term negative effects like dropping of the currency value etc.. will be seen. I really wish someone with more fundaes in economics would look into this.. i am quite out of my depth. I have updated the list of police stations and communally sensitive areas under their jurisdiction. (Source: SriKrishna Commission Report: <A HREF="http://www.altindia.net)." TARGET=_blank>www.altindia.net).</A>

Peeyoosh · Post by **Peeyoosh** » 13 Jul 2000 14:22

Sunil et alOne of the key issues with Bombay is that from the North downwards there are five or six links that more or less control access to the entire length of Mumbai. These are : 1. Western Express Highway connecting to Cadell Road and Worli2. Estern Express Highway connecting via MA Raod to Pedder Road3. The Western, Central and Harbour lines (the western and central merge after a while).In case of 15 KT attack or a multiple 15 KT attack, its safe to assume that much of access would be knocked out as the raillines would be definitely down and roads would be blocked by debris.Moreover its not easy to switch from one arterial route to another, as in the case of Delhi which is a radial city.For the specific case of Mumbai the following may make sense:Pre arranged evacuation points on the coastline for survivors, market by flares or coloured smoke.Large pumps on tugs that can deliver sea water for fire fighting (can't see fire tenders making much progress)Off loading and hospital camp points where medical aid can be supplied along with mechanised equipment such as dozers for moving inland.Finally (having lived in Mumbai and spending the last week there), some means of using the rail track space (buildings verging the raillines are shanty towns, so even in a worst case scenario they will not block the space even if the track itself is destroyed) to move supplies inwards needs to be found. It could involve the use of tracked vehicles or quick laying of track on which diesel locos pulling a light load could move. Stations are alose well known in their immediate loclities and can serve as rallying points.Peeyoosh

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 13 Jul 2000 21:28

kapil,> Godrej and other big guys have no orders at all..Fresh grads are paid good money and they sit and play cards with their managers.interesting but i have heard that before.. don't know what to make of it. Some friends are employed at Godrej actually. my email address is [email protected]. Peeyoosh> 3. The Western, Central and Harbour lines (the western and central merge after a while).I believe it is the central and the Harbour line that merge for a short stretch after Kurla. But in any case i have a railway map in one of my previous posts. I believe i have accounted for the things you have pointed out. > Moreover its not easy to switch from one arterial route to another, as in the case of Delhi which is a radial city.yes this true. > For the specific case of Mumbai the following may make sense:> Pre arranged evacuation points on the coastline for survivors, market by flares or coloured smoke.Evacuation will impossible.. There will be complete panic and stampedes at the evacuation points. We have no early warning exceeding a few minutes on the event.> Large pumps on tugs that can deliver sea water for fire fighting (can't see fire tenders making much progress)Yes this is a good idea. > Off loading and hospital camp points where medical aid can be supplied along with mechanised equipment such as dozers for moving inland.I had this in mind as well. > Finally (having lived in Mumbai and spending the last week there), some means of using the rail track space (buildings verging the raillines are shanty towns, so even in a worst case scenario they will not block the space even if the track itself is destroyed) to move supplies inwards needs to be found. It could involve the use of tracked vehicles or quick laying of track on which diesel locos pulling a light load could move. Stations are alose well known in their immediate loclities and can serve as rallying points.I have this pegged down as well. If you see my post about the Immediate Response, you will see a section on clearing and restoring tracks. The idea of using the stations and the localities surrounding it as rallying points for things is quite natural, i.e it will happen automatically. The only thing we have to watch out for is that it does not clog up the entry port itself. For example. If Kanjurmarg is the last reachable station, then Naval Colony west of it or Godrej Land to the east is an ideal staging point.. if you try to use the station itself then you will get the place clogged in no time. Nirnayak,I was talking about the RBI HQ in VT Fort. Irfan,The landslide response is very small as compared to the thing at hand here. Landslides will draw a maximum of 2-3 Fire Stations. In any case i would appreciate a link to the news item. [This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 13-07-2000).][This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 13-07-2000).][This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 13-07-2000).]