Bharat Rakshak

Shiv,your girlfriend will demand the return of "fuel" (surely the other way round?),technology,all "equipment"-apart from regular "inspections " by international sexp...sorry,experts,to see that all equipment is in working order,maintained well and all safety precautions are being observed.Plus carefully monitoring stocks of all fuel,so that your fuel rods are not clandestinely plugged into your new Iranian girlfriend's secret undercover reactor! However,you will in the event of any breach of trust or infidelity,have recourse to the pre-nuptial clause of all "reprocessing rights "of spent fuel which can be used for your "fast breeding" programme!

I know. Your celebration day was yesterday, wasn't it?

Awesome. thx for posting.

Shiv, what is not written in the 123 is that if u plan to cheat on huever u sleep with, there is a phundamental problem.

I think this happened to Mr. Bobbitt hu ain't gottit any more

Or c here 4 more detailed version

There are a heck of a lot worse things that the aggrieved "partner" can do, than "stop cooperation".

A related question:

As per Indian law, when is approval from Parliament required? Is my understanding that the PM is free to conclude treaties without explicit approval from the Parliament? I realize that members can demand a discussion on it and force the issue based on a motion and that PM cant conclude a treaty if he doesnt have the numbers.

But is it written in law that it is mandatory for Parliamentary approval to conclude any treaty?

The Japan economic rise was partly due to the help provided by the USA to bring Industrial (Quality) revolution and mainly due to determination of the Japanese people. After the Second World War bombing (nuking) Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan’s economy was collapsed. And those days Japanese products were NOT Quality products as we see today.

• Having nuked Japan, USA felt that it should do something in return. Hence, offered Quality Guru’s to Japan. In 1954, the JUSE (Union of Japanese scientists and Engineers) invited Dr.J.M.Juran (He is a founder of Juran Institute, Wilton, Connecticut) and Dr.Deming (Father of world famous “Deming Quality Medalâ€

Parliament can vote his ministry out. And I assume the Supreme Court can rule it unconstitutional. But other than that, the PM has the power to sign off on treaties. Maybe the President has to sign off too.

I know I know. Not only have I read JRR Tookeen's "The Bobbitt" , I have read the entire "Lord of the Things" trilogy.

But I must be drinking too much whine. It's moan than I can stand.

IMHO, this is the real reason for the opposition (apart from the Left who may have their own agenda and the BJP who cant hand it over on a platter to MMS).... people have ZERO confidence in the current or future crop of leaders to protect them based on past experience. That, and a total lack of healthy discussion in the media to make informed decisions.

Not so sure whether its a slippery slope though. A confirmed nuclear strike WILL result in a response, the lack of confidence will only result in increased pressure to respond quickly. Or perhaps I am not following your train of thought?

Unrelated, but where does the 50% number come from? This states that its 20%... perhaps you meant 50% of the 20% is from FSU weapons?

No approval is required from the Parliament. Look at the 1960 Indus Water Treaty or the 1965 Tashkent Agreement or the 1972 Simla Agreement. All were signed by the then PMs of India. The President doesn't need to sign the treaties off either.

United States always wanted leverage to arm twist India on strategic matters. All these years they had Pakistan as one. They still have it. Pakistan provokes and attacks us. We respond. US comes to its rescue(NOT the tarrel than mountain deepest than deep friend). Its the United States of America which came to its rescue.Be it in 1971 or 1999. If it was not the US Prez who gave a good faith word to then PM to "make it up" for Indians for showing restraint after parliament attack Pakis were toast. Fortunately US realized that they cannot keep this leverage Pakistan for long enough to keep India down as it was hurting them too may be more than they could handle. The best brains in US figured this one out. At some time they had to let this go and find a new leverage on India. The NSSP is the new one folks. Pakistan is slowly going out. Civilian Nuclear deal is the first step. Next we have Civilian Space and High Tech Trade deals in the pipeline.
The moment US realizes they have enough leverage on India minus Pakistan,Pakistan is toast.Cube is right. They are nukenood alright but they have enough pinheads in their country to cause trouble to western nations esp US of A. A lot depends on this deal and that is why MMS is so desperate. He wants Pakistan toast just as we jingos do here on BRF. Just give the man a chance.
Left is mad because China cant do nothing to see their best buddy being laser marked for bunker busting. NDA is not supporting because they are frustrated that they didnt get the chance to fry Pakis.
My 2 paise

At the time (circa 1985, I think) when he was Director in charge of the Division of DAE responsible for construction of Nuclear Power Plants in India, it was Dr M.R Srinivasan who coined the slogan and proclaimed from roof tops "10000 BY 2000" meaning DAE will set up 10000 MWe worth of PHWR capacity by the year 2000. This slogan was later re-proclaimed by Dr R. Chidambaram with his 20-20 Vision to a catchy "20,000 by 2020". Dr RC's version included a few Russian LWRs though.

The point is that all along DAE knew that Nat U available in India will support a PHWR programme of 10000 MWe installed capacity. Even as of now DAE has not revised downward, either the quantity or the concentration of Nat U available in India. Nat U has not suddenly become so scarce as to require us to enter into this unequal, demeaning Agreement with the US. The apparent Nat U unavailability is due to political issues and mismanagement. Import of Nat U would only mean that we have succumbed to the forces which want to prevent us from prospecting Uranium. If we proceed with this deal, then the next logical step by these forces would be to prevent us from prospecting Thorium. [Incidentally, quite unrelated to the above line of thought, today the Left is the "possessor" of most of the Th in our country. Possession is 90% of ownership!]

So, to say now that Nat U is not available in adequate quantity or concentration is incorrect. It is only an excuse to enter into this deal with the US / NSG countries amongst which Italy is one.

I have a slightly different take. Since 1942 the West led by UK created the TSP problem to keep India down. This went on till the mid fifties when the US took over. PRC joined the game in 1971 and by some accounts even earlier. The 1998 breakout and the Kargil perfidy were turning points for an India that would fight back.

The big game of the GOI is to break the tri-power axis- US, PRC and TSP. Even the offer of bases after 911 was related to that. However the bilateral axis between US and TSP has proven difficult to crack, because the TSP elite are ever willing to survive. The weaker link is the US-PRC strategic axis which is showing signs of tensions due to the force of history. What I mean is it does not matter that the PRC elite leaders are Western leaning(Its Western thought that unleashed Modernization in traditional China and wrought the havoc of the Communist Revolution), the demographics drive the comeptetion till PRC population peaks. So the West is hedging its bets on PRC and India sees that as an oppurtunity to drive its wedge.

If US sees advantages to the deal GOI does too. The deal has made US sit on the fence in case of another showdown. An Indian test can break the world order and will ensure the US does what is needed to assure that India does not need to test. That is why I see the right to test as a fundamental sovereign right for India.

Now KS, the GOM of Indian strategic thinkers, has thrown the gauntlet at PRC telling them that the ball is in their court -India will go deeper into the Westen alliance if PRC persists in its TSP policy. He makes the point that Indian Navy is the second largest navy in the Indian Ocean and will exercise where it wants with whomever it wants.Next time it could be South China Sea.

If PRC responds positively, since it needs two more decades of growth, then it gives the US more space to remake TSP. Otherwise be ready for a minor disruptions in Middle East. And the nuke deal will allow the Indian economy to wean off oil.

So while folks are sure of Whiteman's gusto I am sure of the native wisdom of the Indian mango man. As they say in jujitsu the willow survives the storm for it can bend as needed.

I can see (I think) what the unhappiness is about.

We have in a sense lost our freedom to test tomorrow, if need be.

But there is a trick in this. that freedom was never really there. We always thought we could test and that tests were not being conducted because of "political spinelessness" etc.

"If only the politicos had balls - we would test"

Now that scapegoat is dead. We now know that we cannot test because it will DEFINITELY impact our civilian reactors.

But I personally see it in this way. We lose very little by not testing. Testing proves that your nukes work, but it does not prove that your missiles will get to target and explode as required. Worse, it will not prove that your leadership has the balls to use nukes.

When you have leadership that is suspected of being cowardly and treacherous, the idea of testing is like feeling your pants to see if the ol' penis is still there. No proof of its utility.

On a moralistic note - nukes are terrible weapons that were considered OK in the hands of the civilised West, whose civilization they purported to protect.

The NPT was started precisely because this premise was broken down. It was hoped that a discriminatory regime would keep nukes away from upstarts. That has failed miserably. The physics and engineering required for a basic nuke is easliy obtainable by the macaques of the 1940s, and nuclear material is so abundant that Al pishaap-tutti types can get it.

The way forward is not to persist with the mega nukes but to get wealth and technology that others cannot get. Use technology for the subcritical mini nukes and come down heavily on the blatant disruptors.

In that sense India has joined the club. We can choose to disbelieve our capabilities. In that case - whine on. If not - rejoice. Either way these thread have outlived their purpose for "discussion". The horse has bolted.

Geo-political situation will override all other reasons for India to Test. India is in a geo-political breakout situation and testing will alter in India's favor whether done now or later. India has to override the sanctions since this is a long term position for the country.

For further clarification - By Ramana

TSP elite is very small and there are no follow up leaders in its Military after Musharraf. Either they are Anti-US or too inept. Hamid Gul and his followers is a key figure in US-TSP axis. US cannot ignore this. He cannot be taken out simply because he has much control over uber-jehadis and Osama,Mullah figureheads. Where from do you think Musharraf pops out No-3 Al Qaeda figures whenever he wants? These type of sophisticated jehadis respond to this Hamid Gul types. US is tired of this Dog-Bone game. They want to change the players or worse the whole game setup itself and wants everybody to play its game with its own set of rules.



US-PRC is simply a marriage of convenience and such marriages have a bad history. Dont forget Taiwan. It is not a small issue for Chinese. They are pretty obsessed about it. PRC will wink if it sees Taiwan coming in its orbit. Ideally it wants both but is smart enough to know it is not that powerful enough to snatch. Taiwan is less strategic for US than Iran or Pakistan.

my point is, w.r.t testing, its gone along with Pok2. If we had to test it again and again, we should have rectified any design issues after Pok2 and carried on testing under the "sancationed times". All these testings should done on a quick mode fast track bang bang bang full concentrated efforts like 15 to 35 tests with in a span of 6-12 months from pok2.

we have also repeatedly boosting and boasting about our preparedness and completeness of what is in the designs of WMD and further the then Vajpayee govt declared that tests were actually a complete deployable weapon form, etc.. and no need any more testing.. and all these analysis have already been done.

we have this habit of non-believers who keeps on coming born again ddm type thinkers, who keep asking should we be testing .. when we have taken a decision to join the world after the voluntary moratorium. imho, the very same mora is now under attack.

we have again chest beating when we should not, and continue to focus on what we want, and do it silently. if we have that superior brains and wants to walk with dad, sleep next to mom, and still go around the world in 80 days, so be it. lets build a testing place that never leaves out seismic waves and test our kilotons. who cares. who can get to know?

we are not moving towards a goal to get integrated with the world, and move on to the next step. we have to join.. no point turning backwards now. and mms, should not announce anything to do with testing, if he is sure and every strategic community is sure, that we can interpret the agreement text which ever way we want.

if we have come to such an agreement, its better to get things moving. when time comes to interpret, we should interpret., and that should happen only after real testing, should it happen in the future.

Poodlitis - a disease of poodle behavior, is being displayed by countries like OZ and now Japan. As soon as Massa says okay, the poodles line up quickly and say okay, sigh, why can't they think independently for a change. No. They would not be poodles.

Picture on Indo-US N-deal becoming clear: Japan

With India and the US finalising the civil nuclear deal, Japan has said the "picture" is becoming "clear" to it, but it preferred a wait-and-watch approach till New Delhi negotiates safeguards agreement with Internationation Atomic Energy Agency.

Lauding India's track record on non-proliferation, Japan said it has been a "good boy" despite remaining outside Non Proliferation Treaty regime, but New Delhi should shoulder the responsibility to strengthen the NPT regime.

"Basically, this matter is still under careful scrutiny and we are being briefed by the US and India to tell us precisely what happened," Japanese Ambassador Yasukuni Enoki told PTI in an interview in Delhi about the 123 agreement concluded last month.

Japan has got "good clarification from the Indian side and also we are approaching the US. So, I think the picture is becoming clear," he said ahead of the visit of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to India.

National Security Adviser M K Narayanan was in Tokyo over a week ago during which he apprised Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso about the nuclear deal.

Enoki said the attention is shifting to India-IAEA safeguards negotiations and the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

"We are watching the negotiations between India and the IAEA about the safeguards agreement," he said.

On NSG, he said the meeting of the 45-nation grouping is expected to be convened in the autumn and "then we will express our position."

India has mastered nuclear fuel cycle

"India is one of the very few countries which has such a comprehensive ability, besides being capable of coming up with nuclear reactors with a capacity of 540 MW," Bhabha Atomic Research Centre Director, S Banerjee, said. Processing of spent fuel is done at PREFRE in Tarapur, which has achieved record production during the past six months, he said.

One explanation for the remarkable Aussie turnaround on the U0supply issue is that since they have the second largest Thorium reserves in the world (after India) and since it has now become amply clear that even those countries with vast U reserves will soon sometime need to reprocess to leverage enhanced N-power (600 times the energy in 1 kg of raw fuel used in standard reactor mode becomes available due to the entire fuel cycle, according to AK and RC), their eagerness to be on India's good side when the time comes to ask for reproc tech in our 3 stage fuel cycle is understandable.

My earlier impression that it is the eagerness to sell U that is driving them was mistaken. U prices in the world mkt are slated to rise hajaar anyway. They could afford to sell around us rather than to us if it was only a question of selling raw U to make money.

JMTs etc.

Sorry if this was posted before:Singh Along

Kagaroostan is a tribe that is independent by nature, small in population, but secure in being rich in resources. Huuuge uranium source.

Japan is one of the world's biggest economies. World's biggest reserve of enriched Pu/uranium etc.

A valid question is:

>>>But I personally see it in this way. We lose very little by not testing. Testing proves that your nukes work, but it does not prove that your missiles will get to target and explode as required. Worse, it will not prove that your leadership has the balls to use nukes.

Think a bit more ahead. Today, they say Testing Nukes will lead to scrapping of 123..Tomorrow, they WILL say (or enact laws) that tesing of ICBMs will lead to scrapping of 123..because US national security is at stake. It is going to be a never ending process.

I have said it before - and I say it again - signing this 123 is like giving a blank cheque to Unkeel. They can write whatever they want later.

Acharya,

I thought you were saying that we must test now. I guess you were not. As for the quote from Ramana, the main point is below:

"An Indian test can break the world order and will ensure the US does what is needed to assure that India does not need to test. "

Are you saying this has not already been done? This was what POK II did. And the Indo-US deal is an indication of the latter part... We will not need to test because what we need will come our way. If, nevertheless, we find at some point that we need to test, we will.

From Amer Khan pov, what stops India from declaring, say in 2020, that all those GE/WEstinghouse reactors are really owned by Indian Army under Jarnail Enqyoob Khan Ramaswami, and hence no longer in the "safeguarded" sector?

Both sides take these sorts of risks.

AllahoAkbar! Am I glad I didn't have to negotiate pre-nups / dowry deals with any of ur families!

BTW, have u read the agreement you signed with ur power company, or ur apartment lessor or mortgage holder?

Within a few years I think the P5 will resume testing of new fangled nuke weapons. US has been threatening to do so for a while and the Republikhans will surely cheer this move. While all of them are involved in improving delivery mechanism (note Russian Bulova missile), India should also concentrate on improving range, accuracy, mirv and other alternative delivery mechanism including by sea. Dr. R.C. and others have stated that numerous dry tests, computer simulation, Pok-II data correlation with prediction gives them enough confidence in Indian strategic nuclear weapons working. BJP's Vajpayee declared moratorium based on the confidence of these people (both BARC and DRDO) and Indians need to accept this conclusion and hold them to the promise. The Inca/Maya tribe has predicted that 2012 Dec 21 (At that time Earth and the Sun are in one line to each other in the center of the Milky Way) is next major cycle in their astronomical predictions and as per this event some cataclysmic change is in the making of the world. Who knows what this could be but after this event a period of progress and calm is predicted for the world.

If you read my earlier post I said testing can be done later. This was discussed in the previous thread.
It think this was discussed before.



"An Indian test can break the world order and will ensure the US does what is needed to assure that India does not need to test. "
POKII is just the begining. Indian geo-political situation will change and India needs to take the next step. Political, economic and military balance with the major nations will keep changing for the next 15 years. India's full potential has not been played out yet.

Oz great reef barriers along with those 40% of world natural uranium land will get merged with the state of TN. Sri Lanka will move up to BD, and BD's permanent problem of floodings solved as well.

The great "I" shift gonna happen. We have already seen the "H" shift, that came after the "G" shift.

The last time I checked, Earth and Sun are always in a straight line.

I thought the center of the Milky Way is a supermassive blackhole. If Earth and Sun are going to be in the centre of this galaxy, we are going to have one hell of a ride.

Actually There is a lot of stuff floating around about December 21 2012. Please do some googling before posting. Thanks

The above is a good point. If the Bharatiya Lok Sabha were to do something useful, it could solve these concerns. They could pass a Bill saying that if any of the other P-6 powers, or any neighboring country to India, were to start live testing again, or cause India grave security concerns, India will consider all deals prescribing return or repayment of anything to be moot. Don't actually tie GOI's hands by PROMISING to test, or tomorrow the Rizald will test just to spite India.

I don't see how the NPAs or Demikats in the AmirKhan harem can object to that - nor the NSG or Japan or Kangaroostan.

Honor satisfied, BJP can resheath the (never mind).

correct.. bring in the China and Pakistan name against Iran et al oil names.. thats exactly our negotiators don't want to do, but exactly want us to interpret as such.

In essence, we have got that already.. make your own interpretations.

This ignorant fool (I am referring to myself) was purely going for the laughs.

>>POKII is just the begining. Indian geo-political situation will change and India needs to take the next step.

Yes of course. This is taken for granted. But it was POK II which broke the strategic logjam we were in - fortunately uncle and friends decided to push us into a corner on the NPT/CTBT at the time. I think it is fairly clear that if not for POK II, there would have been no J18/M2 or anything of the sort.

As for the debate on testing, my point is that the question of now or later is a false one. We will test if we have to, whether now or later. There is no indication from anyone of note that there is a need to test now. Later, we don't know how things will pan out; we will if we need to. But in the meantime we need to create the conditions that will make it painful for those who feel inclined to sanction us then... In fact they must feel the pain of sanctions more.

Testing to prove a H&D point is for the Paks. And now they are learning why that can be harmful. Forum members calling for testing need to understand this...

This Bobbitting, the treaty is hazy on who is Lorena. But still the whole discussion (be it here at BRF or elsewhere) seem to be that US wields the scissors. Thus we hear a one-way "Iranian hydrocarbon means no Pu" or a "you test you loose"

Now the second one, I am not really bothered - Indian policy makers are comfortable with the designs and they worked in '98. And apparently in the US too, the people who matter, believe they work. Until the time Pak Army or their mentors, the Chinese PLA test out new designs, we can pull a tarp over those remaining holes at Pokharan (tarp, not concrete/sand).

But the threat being bandied about by all and sundry in US about the hydrocarbons from ME/Persia? Ramana talked earlier about RAPE/Evil Fauji Empire being shored up by US. Now, why is it that none of the Indian policy-makers or political leaders be it Left, Right or FMIL(foreign made Indian leader), are asking for the same penalty from US Establishment (POTUS + Capitol)? That is, if you shore up the Pak Army, to a point where one and a half billion people are affected, we will have to move closer to Iran for dealing with the Fauji Empire in our own way. Why can't someone stand up and start talking that language, instead of knee jerks "against imperialism" or "for patriotism"?

Some related points:

- US rhetoric seems to be gradually ratcheting up after a lull against Iran. Even that "Alternative Islamic Rage Boy", Ahmedinejad, seems to be backing off from his usual goofy "Mugambo" rhetoric. Were they awaiting some "negotiations" to go through?

- Pakis are stabilizing after a free fall. Judge issue dissipated, Lal masjid re-decorated, threats of attack by the US keeps the mullahs cowering, new COAS all but approved, threat of Emergency to silence the RAPE press, cancellation of Emergency to showcase "dictatorship with a difference"(as if "emergency" is worse than a military dictatorship), BBhutto coming back to her familiar role as a fig-leaf etc

- Chinese are having multiple crisis (Tibetan genocide getting its rightful publicity, the sudden realization that their toys can withstand nuke winter due to the lead content, eternal burden on dental plans compounded by bad toothpaste etc)

At least someone has convinced somebody else about somethings. Or so I would love to believe

India's position with other power and Indian geo-strategic location gives it certain advantage. That advantage has not been fully exploited. This advantage has to be fulfilled no matter what the consequences are since that is the only way for India to create an unbound strategy.
Some things are explained in this article.
http://www.india-forum.com/authors/50/Praker-Bandimutt


By bringing in Pakistan and H&D the discussion goes to toilet.

Indeed, bringing in H&D alone is enough for the discussion to go to the toilet.

Hence my earlier post about the utility of this discussion on this thread... but I guess it will go on until posters get tired of it.

Aha so now the supporters of the deal find it worthy enough to do away with testing.Oh testing to prove H&D ..who said so ? we never know in future we might stumble across a new idea/design which would be needed to be validated by means of field tests for there aint any substitute for one.

Negi,

Pls read my previous post...

"We will test if we have to, whether now or later."