India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

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vsudhir
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by vsudhir »

The ATV program stands unveiled. The new clear stuff it would carry would presumably need some testing, perhaps?

In any case, some folks on this board or some other board calling for new clear 'testes' doesn't mean GoI will test tomorrow. Or even day after tomorrow. And NPAs will forever call for India's new clear de-claw-ation regardless of what anone says on this phorum. jmts onlee.
sanjaykumar
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

If India needs to test this is the window (in case NSG prove obstinate, with Bush demitting office); test and get it out of your system. But make sure you get all the data you need. New Zealand and Austria, etc may smirk but they will be regarded as culpable.
harbans
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by harbans »

This is precisely why the NPAs have been able to persuade many nations that India's Moratorium should not be taken seriously. You guys are living (if one can call this thread a sign of life, despite the absolute lack of any intelligence, I guess stimulus-response is sign of life..) proof of what the NPAs bleat. Congratulations!
Narayan Ji, i joined in the chorus for testing not for disbelief that our TN or BF devices won't work, but that the NPAs are unknowingly creating the circumstances and opportunity for India to do so. I don't think the NPAs are that wise. I think they are a stupid lot. You certainly have a perspective that i'm not understanding, but why do you think the NPAs want us to test?
RajeshA
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RajeshA »

sanjaykumar wrote:If India needs to test this is the window (in case NSG prove obstinate, with Bush demitting office); test and get it out of your system. But make sure you get all the data you need. New Zealand and Austria, etc may smirk but they will be regarded as culpable.
I agree. I have said this earlier also.

If we believe, that more testing is required in order to have a credible deterrent, than we need to test. There has never been a situation more conducive to testing as the present situation.

1. George W. Bush has been sufficiently pro-India.
2. The West has a situation with Russia to deal with.
3. India is making maximum efforts to please NSG members, without tripping over our own red lines.

If in spite of our cooperative attitude, the NPAs and the Pipsqueak reject a NSG, then India has to change this attitude. We can squarely blame them for this change. We should move ahead with the Testing.

Isn't it thinkable that Washington too could be prodded to give similar reasons as India, i.e. the Pipsqueak were responsible.

The blame for the Tests should squarely be put at the doors of the Pipsqueak. These countries should know, that there are consequences to their provocations.

In the present climate, where USA is pro-India, West is pre-occupied with Russia, and India has made an honest effort to be in the mainstream, I don't think that the consequences would be too harsh. George Bush is on his way out. Till Obama comes into the White House, the international outcry would itself have come down.

China is willing to sign on to CTBT, because it knows it has everything it needs to proceed with improving its arsenal without any further nuclear testing. We should be in a similar situation.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

In the present climate, where USA is pro-India, ....


It is pertinant to remember that India is the coy 300 lb gorrilla that can make a decisive shift in any alliance with a potential suitor. In 20 years it wil weigh 800 lbs.

Indians need to gaurd against the pre-trillion dollar economy mindset of seeking America's favour.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by svinayak »

RajeshA wrote:
In the present climate, where USA is pro-India, West is pre-occupied with Russia, and India has made an honest effort to be in the mainstream, I don't think that the consequences would be too harsh. George Bush is on his way out.
They want India to break out at a time when rogue nations such as Iran etc also declare their program. NPAs want India to similar image as Iran when India does its break out party.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

The Western public can't tell Teheran from Chennai but their elites understand the difference very well.
p_saggu
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by p_saggu »

India has conducted 6 nuclear tests that it has announced to the world. (there may be others but lets not discuss them here)

The first (POK 1 - 1974) was a huge uranium box clearly not weponized, very difficult to even air drop.
Out of the five that were tested in 1998 :
1. S 1 was a Thermonuclear Experimental device: used to gather data and for proof of concept. NOT A WEPONIZED BUM. for experiment Onlee.
2. S 2 was the only weaponized bomb tested, capable of air and missile delivery. Now people have speculated if this was the fission boosted or a plain fission, but the yield it gave was ~ 20 kt.
3-5. Were subkiloton experiments, again to gather data. One was supposedly with U233 another with reactor grade plutonium.

So as it stands today, we have a confirmed design ONLY ONE CONFIRMED FISSION Design that yeilds in the region of 20 kt.
No proven Two stage design.
No proven Neutron - High radiation weapon.
No weapon designated safe for use in a nuclear submarine.
No weapon with point safe explosives
No weapon where design itself incorporates saftey features to prevent misuse.

All that we have is a unilateral moritorium, and our diplomats and politicians blow hot and cold over a nuclear deal asserting our right to test, our right to have reprocessing tech. :x
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by harbans »

The Western public can't tell Teheran from Chennai but their elites understand the difference very well.
Sanjay Ji can you explain this? I also asked Narayan Ji to explain his views. I am a little puzzled. I think the West does'nt comprehend. They think India is like filth, extremely 3rd world, a notch above Ethopia or Somalia when they had millions die of starvation. The elite has grown from that thinking. Some like GWB (the most admirable US President IMO) suddenly from election time not knowing the Indian PMs name to becoming the prime leader of the most powerful nation on Earth found oh wow..this country has our values..i was wrong..it's peaceful has tech..why not be friends. The more he probed deeper he found the Truth India offered, hence the nuclear deal. GWB made an honestly genuine attempt. He's not been able to temper/ influence the lower order of bureaucracymajor public opinion which considers India to be 3rd world filth incapable of a mature nuclear program.

Thats the truth. Blunt and simple. Thats what drives the NPAs.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

Just like refusing to put black paper over your windows in wartime won't destroy the nation because the Pakis are not smart enough, and telling everybody that your friend the long-range bomber pilot seemed to be all tense yesterday and he's told his wife that he may not be back for 2 weeks, won't hurt anyone because the Chinese are not smart enough, some people here rationalize that their posting their asinine screams for "MORE TESTS NOW! THIS IS THE WINDOW! NO ONE WILL SANCTION US!" will not hurt India because the NPAs are not smart enough.

Sure. Question is whether it will REALLY hurt you to shut up.

1. The NPAs are quite adept at posting on websites, and they write and publish articles a lot more energetically than anyone who posts on BRF.
2. When I have published articles, the NPAs have had no trouble finding and referring to them. Some referred to me as the "Indian Nationalist" view (where I said they were liars.. :mrgreen: ) but others (not NPA but associated with GOTUS) said I was posting clear sense because it synched with their view. Both were referring to articles published at BRM/SRR.
3. You see that ramana's article has been copied and translated to Chinese verbatim.

Let's see - Say Prime Minister XYZ of Luxembourg, one of the premier veto-wielding Powers of the NSG, is wavering because he helped Indira Gandhi with her coiffure in 1968, and thinks her daughter-in-law won't do anything crazy, she's so peace-loving. All that NPA Kendall has to do is go to http://www.bharat-rakshak.com and show said PM a small sample of the Strategic Thinking among Indians today. Fortunately she will also see that these Strategic Thinkers are described as idiots by kindergartners like me, so maybe she won't change her mind.

This whole asinine argument line about WHY India needs to go off and test, has been beaten to death a hundred times on this forum, and if I were to waste the time needed, I am sure I can knock the gas out of all you "TEST NOW!" dummies yet again, no further demonstration needed, except that a few of the Admins here will get their undies in a knot about my being "insensitive 2 ur :(( feelings" etc. You have NO sense on your side, as you would remember if you HAD any bloody sense.

But NOOOOOOOO, don't let these things stop you from continuing to act like blithering idiots (or maybe it's not an act at all??)

India NEEDS your advice to decide if and when to test, guys. Sure! Like the Rajdhani Express is powered by the jet thrust of your fa*ting. Keep it up!
sanjaykumar
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

Well let me put it bluntly-can they tell the difference between an Iran or North Korea potentially threatening their interests and India doing the same? Sure they can, some are counting on the growing Indian economy to moderate Indian strategic autonomy. But India can engage in realpolitic gamesmanship, much as China was selling silkworms to saudia even while playing host to US intelligence along the Amur. If India really wants something badly enough, the road lies through Teheran, Pyongpong, Damascus, Islamabad. In fact Pakistan can be made into a very compelling reason for the West to keep India in good humour. Pakistanis will jump at the chance to secure their eastern frontier and concentrate on evicting NATO from their perceived shpere of influence.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

harbans wrote:
The Western public can't tell Teheran from Chennai but their elites understand the difference very well.
Sanjay Ji can you explain this? I also asked Narayan Ji to explain his views. I am a little puzzled. I think the West does'nt comprehend. They think India is like filth, extremely 3rd world, a notch above Ethopia or Somalia when they had millions die of starvation. The elite has grown from that thinking. Some like GWB (the most admirable US President IMO) suddenly from election time not knowing the Indian PMs name to becoming the prime leader of the most powerful nation on Earth found oh wow..this country has our values..i was wrong..it's peaceful has tech..why not be friends. The more he probed deeper he found the Truth India offered, hence the nuclear deal. GWB made an honestly genuine attempt. He's not been able to temper/ influence the lower order of bureaucracymajor public opinion which considers India to be 3rd world filth incapable of a mature nuclear program.

Thats the truth. Blunt and simple. Thats what drives the NPAs.

Harban Sir.

I am impressed. I too have the same impression of Bush and how he saw things for the most part. He is a simple person..But sometimes that simple yet non prejudiced lens can clarify the truth. The far lefties (Kimbal ahole et al) are so complicated in their thought they trip over themselves, they won't know which side is up and which is down if it comes and bites them in the ass! They lose the big picture.

Manny
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by p_saggu »

So as it stands today, we have a confirmed design ONLY ONE CONFIRMED FISSION Design that yeilds in the region of 20 kt.
No proven Two stage design.
No proven Neutron - High radiation weapon.
No weapon designated safe for use in a nuclear submarine.
No weapon with point safe explosives
No weapon where design itself incorporates saftey features to prevent misuse.
...And the major nuclear powers perfected all these tech starting in the 1980s to the 1990s. We are far behind, unless GOI proves it to itself and to the world.
Are we serious about being a nuclear weapons power, about sitting on the high table where all the "gods" reside? Or was it all a political tamasha show-sha that we had saved for a "nuclear deal" where the world would have to acknowledge our greatness.
[/rant]
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

Mr. Narayanan,

I agree with you that actually testing would be very costly for India. With or without this deal. Unless and until we face real threat from China, and we really have a technical reason to test, its not worth testing.

However, Sending out feelers (an unsourced leak here and there) of a possible test that could happen (With deniablity) may not be such a bad idea. Here is why.

1. The NPA's and their idiot friends would be nervous that their tactics has not worked...and that what they have by their actions caused is nuclear uncertainty in this world. and that they have contributed to that environment. It would also show how fragile the NPT and CTBT is.

2. Since India would not actually do it, assures that there would not be costly sanctions...and we can always deny that anything like that was in the works. Even if the NPA idiots know India is just bluffing, the rest of the world does not. They would put the blame on the NPA idiots for making them nervous!

Manny

Edited to add:

There is a cost for the NSG (NPT and CTBT Ayatollahs) for not accommodating India. There must be one..Isn't that what is being used as justification for bringing India in? What is that cost for them? Now, if this deal does not go through, India needs to extract that cost. However, to do it in such a way, that the cost for us of extracting that cost from the NPT ayotllah's is minimal.

If that cost is another test, then what I said earlier (At top of this post) holds. IF that cost is, India asserting its right as an outside entity (CTBT/NPT) to help its allies (Egypt? NZ neighbor Indonesia? ) with Nuclear technology. Not actually sharing such technology...but asserting its right as an independent nation may be a profitablee option.

Remember, when Porkistan was about to do their test, Europe and the US rushed to them with offerings of much goodies? Remember that? Blackmail actually works in this real world! So a constant reminder that the NPT and CTBT is fragile and useless is in order.
Last edited by Manny on 01 Sep 2008 05:02, edited 10 times in total.
vera_k
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by vera_k »

FWIW, IMO the time to test would be when economic growth is at an ebb, because the economic cost to test in such a situation would be minimal.

Until that time comes, keep growing the economy, perfecting the delivery systems and making progress on social objectives like literacy, health care and poverty reduction.

Also, testing is not the only thing separating us from the P-5. If I am not mistaken, each of the P-5 have proliferated to their agents. We need to find an agent and have them test our design as part of their breakout.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Arun_S »

Rangudu wrote:We need the right to test because China and Unkil have the same. NPT was where we missed the boat. Today, China can keep its NSG membership and trade without giving up its right to test. We need to keep the same so that we can react to any new tests by China. This will be true even if India had tested a multi mega ton device in 1998 with no doubts of yield.
A crude analogy: A beggar on empty stomach for self preservation wants to preserve right to beg, not because other well fed people too have right to beg.

I submit that the right is to test insisted by retired Lt Gen Vinay Shankar is primarily because of incredible (pun intended) Indian deterrence (Fauj doesnt live and fight on empty boast) and not because of wanting diplomatic parity w/ US or China. The General is clearly staying this in this aforesaid article. Quoted and highlighted for your attention:
Gerard wrote:Don't accept any compromise with min nuke deterrence: Ex-gen
a former senior army officer has said India should not accept any condition which compromises on the issue of minimum nuclear deterrence.
"As a global power, we must possess a nuclear weapons capability that is sufficient to act as a deterrent to all other nuclear weapon states. "What does it translate into? Very simply stated we should be able to absorb a first strike and yet retain the capability to strike back with our residual capability in a manner that makes the costs to the attacker unacceptable," Lt Gen Vinay Shankar said. He said this was the minimum capability India must seek, and it should "not accept the imposition of terms that could cause us to accept compromises on this issue."
So the required minimum capability did not come inspite of Pok-II under ABV regime. IOW the weapon that is key to deterrence (i.e. TN weapon) did not perform in Pok-II. Hence the primary need to preserve the right to test.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

The real tragedy would be the NPT Ayatollahs having accomplished what they wanted to do (Scuttle this deal) and India not extracting the cost from those buggers!

That would be a real tragedy and a terrible precedent set for India to never again negotiate from position of strength! For they having called our bluff! It is imperative that the NPT and the CTBT be weakened if they scuttle this deal... Whatever the mechanics That is a must.
Last edited by Manny on 01 Sep 2008 05:19, edited 1 time in total.
sanjaykumar
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

1998 redux?

I do not believe India neccesarily needs to test.

Computing power, general technical knowledge, nuclear understanding from first principles, example of others gleaned from the literature or friendly goverments or free-lance agents and intellectual competence and also the cultural disinclination to give a darshan of one's big testicules suggest that India does not need to test any more than a few devices.Do POK1 and 2 constitute those few? I think they do for if not the Indians would have tested by now. (I know that is like the ontological reasoning for the existence of god 8) ).
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by vsudhir »

Let's see - Say Prime Minister XYZ of Luxembourg, one of the premier veto-wielding Powers of the NSG, is wavering because he helped Indira Gandhi with her coiffure in 1968, and thinks her daughter-in-law won't do anything crazy, she's so peace-loving. All that NPA Kendall has to do is go to http://www.bharat-rakshak.com and show said PM a small sample of the Strategic Thinking among Indians today. Fortunately she will also see that these Strategic Thinkers are described as idiots by kindergartners like me, so maybe she won't change her mind.
Fair enough. I suggested Dilli drop hints at diluting the moratorium on subcritical tests. Am duly chastened onlee.

What's scary now is that if BR is indeed quoted so authoritatively in such high-brow circles and all, then all NPA fatwa-massas like kimballs need to do is register at BRF under innocuous names and post incendiery stuff which they can later quote (like the self-quoting fad seen here a few days ago). Point being, there's reason phree online commentary is not taken terribly seriously everywhere - and the ease with which false-flags, genuine idiocy, pretend idiocy etc can be played online is one of them, one might think? But sure, the kindergarten wags should be shut up, by adminullah fatwa if required, coz they're being themselves in a hot-air forum.

And yes, it doesn't hurt me for one to shut up. Tks for the hint. I intend take the advice. Ciao.
Manny
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

Don't those folks from the South Block take input from here? Not even a cursory glance? :eek: :-o :(

I am devastated... I've been wasting my posts here then.

:mrgreen: :rotfl: :rotfl:

But seriously, We have better analysis and debate here than those far lefty editorials in the Indian Newspapers. That...I am sure.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Paul »

ramana wrote:- In 1982 Deng authorized the transfer of weapon technology and designs to TSP. They don't tell what they got in return. 1982 was around the time Mrs G came back to power and there were reports she might want to test in 1983 and her friends like Haskar (CPI sympathizer) dissuaded her from testing and PC Alexander's office was the source of leaks to the West.
FYI...PN Haksar's daughter is the infamous Nandita Haksar. Defense lawyer of Afzal guru. She is now living with a naga boy toy in ND.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by shiv »

narayanan wrote: I am sure I can knock the gas out of all you "TEST NOW!" dummies yet again, no further demonstration needed, except that a few of the Admins here will get their undies in a knot about my being "insensitive 2 ur :(( feelings" etc.
Narayanan - even without all that one person has clicked the "report post" button and has recorded the following complaint.
Everyone who has a different opinion on the forum is not an idiot and there is need for differing viewpoints and discussion. I believe such posts are unwelcome on BRF.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

Manny,
"Testing" to spite the Ayatollahs is a classic case of cutting off one's nose to spite one's enemies. NOBODY in the world gets hurt by India "testing" EXCEPT India. Young people studying hard on the aspiration of building a good career, of getting a chance to launch into the world, will suffer as opportunities are shut down. In 1974, (when the test was definitely necessary) thousands of Indian students, including a cousin of mine, returned "home" from the west because they were summarily kicked out of nuclear physics and all other such programs. never recovered from the loss of their education/ career trajectories. In 1998, (when tests were definitely necessary), Indian programs such as the LCA suffered major setbacks as the Americans even stole the actuators and other things that Indian engineers took there under contracted programs. India was too weak to punish the American companies/ govt. for that violation of trust.

Today there is no pressing NEED for any test, as has been argued and proved here very clearly in the past. The "reasons" advanced for "test now" are completely bogus, and are most definitely not motivated by desire to see India enhance security or anything else.

So all those Brilliant People ( I stand chastened - soooo soorry that when I said some people are idiots, apparently some hit the :(( button and yelled: "Kaun Bulata hai mujhe?" :rotfl: ) now clamoring for immediate Tests are really clamoring to see India hurt herself. NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT.

I leave it to the wisdom of the unbiased reader to figure out whether these are pro-India or anti-India people.

The ONLY reason to "test" nuclear weapons any more is to prove some new and exotic design that one cannot trust by any other means. NOT to impress anyone. There may at some time be a need for that, but SURELY not at a time when the world is watching to see who is right -
a) those who say that India is a responsible power interested in going ahead with civilian energy development, or
b) those who say that India is a rogue power bent on getting some spare enriched uranium by hook or crook to make bombs and threaten her neighbors.

So to "show" up six minions like Ireland and New Zealand, India should prove to the other 170-odd nations on earth, without doubt, that Case (b) is the truth.

Whom will this impress? The Pakis? Pah! They get their weapons from the Chinese commies. The Chinese? Ooo! Ever heard of Lop Nor? The Austrians?

But that is not the reason why there are people clamoring for tests. It is, pure and simple, that they WANT to see the Indo-US CIVILIAN nuclear deal derailed, and they WANT to see India's stature in the world brought down. For various reasons. Maybe some are indeed NPAs in mufti. Maybe some are Pakis. Maybe some are communists, or even Chinese agents, Maybe some are diehard loyalists of a certain party that dreams of coming to power in the next elections, and willing to achieve that at the cost of severely damaging India.

So yeah, calling those types irresponsible, and their views idiotic (I was trying to be polite and not call them Pakis on the theory that one should never ascribe to malice that which is perfectly explained as stupidity) makes me unwelcome at BRF. The "B" stands for "Beijing" I assume? Yeah, hit the :(( button, NPA dummies!
Last edited by enqyoob on 01 Sep 2008 06:34, edited 1 time in total.
ldev
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by ldev »

narayanan wrote:Manny,
"Testing" to spite the Ayatollahs is a classic case of cutting off one's nose to spite one's enemies. NOBODY in the world gets hurt by India "testing" EXCEPT India. So all those Brilliant People ( I stand chastened - soooo soorry that when I said some people are idiots, apparently some hit the :(( button and claimed that I called THEIR names :rotfl: ) now clamoring for immediate Tests are really clamoring to see India hurt herself.

I leave it to the wisdom of the reader to figure out whether these are pro-India or anti-India people.
The ONLY reason to "test" nuclear weapons any more is to prove some new and exotic design that one cannot trust by any other means. There may at some time be a need for that, but SURELY not at a time when the world is watching to see who is right -
a) those who say that India is a responsible power interested in going ahead with civilian energy development, or
b) those who say that India is a rogue power bent on getting some spare enriched uranium by hook or crook to make bombs and threaten her neighbors.

So to "show" up six minions like Ireland and New Zealand, India should prove to the other 170-odd nations on earth, without doubt, that Case (b) is the truth.

Whom will this impress? The Pakis? Pah! The Chinese? Ooo! The Austrians?

But that is not the reason why there are people clamoring for tests. It is, pure and simple, that they WANT to see the nuclear deal derailed, and they WANT to see India's stature in the world brought down. For various reasons. Maybe some are indeed NPAs in mufti. Maybe some are Pakis. Maybe some are diehard loyalists of a certain party that dreams of coming to power in the next elections, and willing to achieve that at the cost of severely damaging India.

So yeah, calling those types irresponsible, and their views idiotic (I was trying to be polite and not call them Pakis on the theory that one should never ascribe to malice that which is perfectly explained as stupidity) makes me unwelcome at BRF. The "B" stands for "Beijing" I assume? Yeah, hit the :(( button, NPA dummies!
Superb post, especially the part I bolded ... and I have been been watching your patient reasoning on this thread with amazement in the face of overwhelming odds.
:!: :!:
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by vsudhir »

oye, FWIW, moi didnt lepolt any post anywhel. Moi knows bettel dan 2 closs swolds with new clear gulu nnn. /back 2 lurk mode. ensoi.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Prem »

No Testing in Pokhran. If must test , test big one near New Zoo Land.
Testing or no testing, deal or no deal, our priority ought to be economy for next 12 years . We must quadrulple our GDP and Reserves by 2020 . Only then minnows will shit @ the very first entence by our 5th grade babu.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

lepolting yoojing "!" button eej phor NPAs, Paki Flontiel Constipationary and othel weaniej. Leal mullahs just yell Jeeeehaaaad! ArrahoAkba... as they pless middre button on ovelsized vest as Adminurrahs advanj with rathis. :mrgreen:


Prem: The NZ ppl have very very strong support from the people who HAVE been gravely hurt by nuclear testing - the ppl of the island chains who were devastated by France and US. So one has to respect their opposition to anything and everything that seems to open any gap for anyone to escape without signing all the test bans and disarmament. For them it is a lifelong thing. Best argument to win them over, IMO, is that once India is inside NSG, India is the greatest supporter that NZ can have, for real movement towards real and total WMD disarmament. IOW, develop a REAL NPT and India will be happy to be part of it.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by arnab »

ldev wrote:
narayanan wrote:Manny,
"Testing" to spite the Ayatollahs is a classic case of cutting off one's nose to spite one's enemies. NOBODY in the world gets hurt by India "testing" EXCEPT India. So all those Brilliant People ( I stand chastened - soooo soorry that when I said some people are idiots, apparently some hit the :(( button and claimed that I called THEIR names :rotfl: ) now clamoring for immediate Tests are really clamoring to see India hurt herself.

I leave it to the wisdom of the reader to figure out whether these are pro-India or anti-India people.
The ONLY reason to "test" nuclear weapons any more is to prove some new and exotic design that one cannot trust by any other means. There may at some time be a need for that, but SURELY not at a time when the world is watching to see who is right -
a) those who say that India is a responsible power interested in going ahead with civilian energy development, or
b) those who say that India is a rogue power bent on getting some spare enriched uranium by hook or crook to make bombs and threaten her neighbors.

So to "show" up six minions like Ireland and New Zealand, India should prove to the other 170-odd nations on earth, without doubt, that Case (b) is the truth.

Whom will this impress? The Pakis? Pah! The Chinese? Ooo! The Austrians?

But that is not the reason why there are people clamoring for tests. It is, pure and simple, that they WANT to see the nuclear deal derailed, and they WANT to see India's stature in the world brought down. For various reasons. Maybe some are indeed NPAs in mufti. Maybe some are Pakis. Maybe some are diehard loyalists of a certain party that dreams of coming to power in the next elections, and willing to achieve that at the cost of severely damaging India.

:!: :!:
Great post Narayanan, as usual. To add to this, another group of folks hankering for tests might be chaps who want to invest in Resurgent India Bonds - II.
So hard to find gilt edged securities these days paying 12 % returns :) Alas, only if oil was $20 a barrell instead of $120, and USD was worth Rs. 48.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

So India in 1998 essentially got off scotfree with its 5 tests, but somehow there will be hell to pay in 2008, for testing for the seventh time. That was with a GDP perhaps $250 billion and now 4 times that base.

I am sorry, but if India is still living under fear of sanctions, it has learnt nothing from the fact that the president of the USA was doing the rounds in India within two years, testing seems to have boosted its economic growth rate (I wonder if it is only association or is it soemthing deeper-strength respects strength or perhaps a more confidant people). That the US is offering a ridiculously advantageous nuclear pact within 7 years. That India has conducted a dozen military excercises with NATO countries. That Pakistan is soon to be abandoned for the fourth time by its western benefactors etc etc.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by RamaY »

The ONLY reason to "test" nuclear weapons any more is to prove some new and exotic design that one cannot trust by any other means. There may at some time be a need for that, but SURELY not at a time when the world is watching to see who is right -
This logic works only if your past tests are conducted and concluded after testing and proving all designs we have. Unfortunately, the tests so far do not include a proven thermo-nuclear weapon. Per my understanding, that is what some of the posters are looking for.

Now, if India has a workable big-bum, it is worth testing the design. The recommended timing of "TEST NOW" achieves two goals with this decision. The TN design is proved and data collected, while achieving additional geopolitical and NPA incentives...
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

narayanan,

You may want to go read my post again. You are making a strawman argument (very long strawman post of yours) here.

You seem to have missed it

I don't want India to test.


;)
Last edited by Manny on 01 Sep 2008 08:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

sanjaykumar wrote:So India in 1998 essentially got off scotfree with its 5 tests, but somehow there will be hell to pay in 2008, for testing for the seventh time. That was with a GDP perhaps $250 billion and now 4 times that base.

I am sorry, but if India is still living under fear of sanctions, it has learnt nothing from the fact that the president of the USA was doing the rounds in India within two years, testing seems to have boosted its economic growth rate (I wonder if it is only association or is it soemthing deeper-strength respects strength or perhaps a more confidant people). That the US is offering a ridiculously advantageous nuclear pact within 7 years. That India has conducted a dozen military excercises with NATO countries. That Pakistan is soon to be abandoned for the fourth time by its western benefactors etc etc.
What India did then was the best thing that India has done. I so agree. The wussies who bitched and whined (the lefties of India) as usual were against it cause they are evil people out to destroy India.

However, testing this time ....unless there is some technical reason for it that is worth more than the cost that we would incur, it may not be a good idea.

However, I am all for putting out such a thing as a possibility..and also to make a point to say that India is within its right to help other peaceful countries with their nuclear power technology since India is not a signiroty to the BS organizations like the NPT and CTBT. That is good enough to weaken the NPT and CTBT and rub the noses of that Kendall ahole in it.

NPT, CTBT like the UNSC needs to be weakened/broken.


Manny
Last edited by Manny on 01 Sep 2008 08:07, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by arnab »

sanjaykumar wrote:So India in 1998 essentially got off scotfree with its 5 tests, but somehow there will be hell to pay in 2008, for testing for the seventh time. That was with a GDP perhaps $250 billion and now 4 times that base.

I am sorry, but if India is still living under fear of sanctions, it has learnt nothing from the fact that the president of the USA was doing the rounds in India within two years, testing seems to have boosted its economic growth rate (I wonder if it is only association or is it soemthing deeper-strength respects strength or perhaps a more confidant people). That the US is offering a ridiculously advantageous nuclear pact within 7 years. That India has conducted a dozen military excercises with NATO countries. That Pakistan is soon to be abandoned for the fourth time by its western benefactors etc etc.
Sir jee, I'm sure if you have followed Suraj's admirable expositions on the economy thread, you would have understood that GDP is merely the nominal value of goods and services produced within the country. As a policy-tool, it really has no value. Today we are a $1 trillion economy - if the Rs weakens, we becoame a $billion economy :)

The variables we should track are - forex reserves, investment, defence capability and infrastructure expenses. Do note, that despite our admirable economic growth, our BOP deficits are also the highest they have ever been. What might happen if we test is that the foreign investments (and trade) (which provide the $ we use to buy oil to fly our planes and drive our tanks) will slow down to a trickle. Defene capability, to the extent it is reliant on external sources will also suffer.
India's investment rating would be downgraded, making it more expensive for Indian business to buy goods or invest abroad.

GOI might try to stem this tide by offering to float RIBs at very attractive terms. The problem is that this will entail a high future interest burden. How will GOI finance this burden? by cutting down the salaries / pensions of babus? cutting off subsidies? cutting down bloated departmental expenses? perish the thought. GOI will cut down on capital expense. Meaning - golden quadrilaterals, high speed rail links, dams, power stations will receive less funding. Oh - yes, so will defence investments. Sea-bird will probable be delayed by another 5 years. As wil our ATVs and the aircraft cariers and Scorpenes.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

India is outside the NPT, CTBT and NSG. It has no obligation to any of its rules! Period! and India needs to say it loud and as often to every other countries out there!

1/5th of humanity is not party to that nonsense where lilliputian Ho Helen Clark gets to be the queen.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by sanjaykumar »

One trillion dollars is a short hand way of expressing profits to be made.

No scorpene, no investment in the automobile sector. No thingmajig for laser ignition at Indore, no investment in cellphones or Indian media or Bollywood or cricket or solar power or agro-products or health care or aviation........ With a large and growing economy you suddenly acquire friends and influence people. I always found it an easier way than Dale Carnegie's-just show the money.


How much of your scenario transpired in 1998 when China was not breathing down Uncle Sam's neck? For how long?
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by enqyoob »

If the US threatens to cut visas for daddy-Os vijiting their pyaree baccchee and parivar in the US, the guvrmand will immediately sign CTBT and NPT and FMCT. So I wouldn't be so cocky about the modern Indian ability to shrug off sanctions etc. The world has of course changed since 1998 - but the Consumer economy is built on a foundation of cards. Take away the exports because of sanctions, and everything collapses. At least in 1974 we only had a short way to fall, to hit the stable bottom.

There is a difference between "FEAR" of sanctions, and STUPIDITY in inviting them. It's like - I don't live in FEAR of the Adminullahs here, but I agree that it would be STUPID to invite being banned. :eek:

But should I let that deprive me of "testing" on some deserving candidates once in a while??? Clearly the Deterrent is being called into question....

BTW, I fully agree with Manny that
India is outside the NPT, CTBT and NSG. It has no obligation to any of its rules! Period!


BUT... u don't need to vaporize the good soil of Mother India to prove that. You can just SAY it..... Maybe present Lotas saying that to every NSG member.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

So according to you.. India a country of a Billion just accepts defeat and the drubbing given by the Kendall ahole and that ho Helen Clark of NZ and crawl back and shrivel up and lick its wounds ...cause you are worried that your Visa would be denied?

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by Manny »

I saw we need to say it in such a way that it rattles the NSG, the NPT and CTBT Ayatollahs with out actually testing. Come pretty close to it but not go all the way!

One option is to muse (loudly) about how we can help Egypt (An American ally) and Indonesia (NZ Neighborhood) with thier Nuke ambitions. After all we are not party to NPT and CTBT.. Just muse (loudly...via some leaks with deniability).

What has being goodi toosh got India in 30 years? .Helen Clark the little Ho just peed on India in front of the whole world. She did it cause..she felt she can get away with it and that India is a weak country...weaker than NZ. And here you folks arguing we should just take the drubbing we got from this small country.
Last edited by Manny on 01 Sep 2008 08:40, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: India Nuclear News and Discussion 23 July 2008

Post by p_saggu »

Manny wrote:NPT, CTBT like the UNSC needs to be broken.
When India starts to say and do things like this, only then will it get the respect that it wants. Only when the camel peees outside the tent will those inside the tent say enuf is enuf, come inside, nay push it inside.
But not before.
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