Raja Ram wrote:
Shivji, are you also saying that India has achieved that ability now?
I have no idea about this and anybody's guess is as good as, but no better than mine. India probably has some ability to model future nuclear weapons and a little "past experience". Whether India has done sub-kiloton tests outside of what we know will not become public.
But a series of PMs have helped India follow the same stated path - i.e that India will abide by all international treaties with regard to nukes without actually signing them. This is what I call hypocrisy. We like to give the impression of "behaving well" without actually toeing any lines and reserve the right to break out at any time. Breaking out is what Vajpayee did. To that extent India is "untrustworthy" in terms of the future of military nuclearization or denuclearization of the world. India is a wild card whose behavior nobody can predict. Not even Indians.
Technically the P5 have retained a testing option for themselves, but they too have abided by the CTBT. They have flouted the NPT though. India has not done that.
India's apparent behavior at an international level is hardly that of a country that is seeking to dominate the rest of the world with military and nuclear weapon power. The behavior is actually "Gandhian" in seeking to cover oneself with a loincloth of nuclear ability while arguing for a day when everyone can give up all clothes - suits or loincloths. This "sadhu-like" behavior has extended across the political spectrum and over many decades.
And while India behaves like an international mendicant/sadhu in not seeking to dominate anyone, India is hardly isolating itself from the world and defying the world as one would expect from a power that wants to claw and fight its way to the top of the pyramid that has been defined by the Western world. India is actually a begging mendicant - the true sadhu living on alms. We do ask for aid for infrastructure projects, development projects, healthcare projects, water supply projects etc. We take loans which other nations call "aid".
Why does india behave in this way? Probably because all Indian leaders, across the political spectrum depend on a mass of extremely poor people to elect them. Hving been elected by those people they have to work on programs that seem to feed those people - which is also a convenient way to skim off money for the political class. That money is ploughed back into electoral bribery and sops to get parties voted into power.
So perhaps India's international behavior can be explained by the mass of naive poor in India who have been given the power to elect those who give them sops. The politicians who give the electorate sops then do not do anything to raise India's international power and status. They beg for aid, part of which goes for development projects and partly as slush funds for elections. This suits the donors who understand that India can never ever become a world power as long as India politcians are paid indirectly in the form of "aid".
Not only does this explain the behavior of the entire political class in India across all parties (that is not just Congress, but BJP, commies, anyone) but it also explains why there is no real effort to raise India's status and power. In order to beg and get you have to appear weak and poor. India's development has come despite the rotten system.
As you can see - nuclear weapons will scare off donors. But we want to make a pretence of standing up to Pakistan and China while not threatening the donors. Hence our ballistic missile will never go over 3000 km and our nukes will never reach yields that scare the richest donors. We will always abide by treaties made by rich donors - even ones that we have not signed.
The point I am trying to make is that India is a beggar nation by design because that design keeps the system going. You and I, the elite are outside the system that depends on beggary to keep a few people rich and in power while the vast mass remain poor and the rich donors are not frightened away. And if you or I clamor for a seat "on the high table" we get our wrists slapped by both GoI and the donors who say "Hush. Can't you see how poor and sick your countrymen are?"
Coming back to the point - this only means India will not test. If India is not going to test - might as well sign the CTBT. If we grow cojones at some future date - maybe we can blow up the treaty in a real nuclear explosion.
If India must get a seat at the high table it can come only by saying "Balls to the world - we will accept any sanctions and punishment meted out and not beg". But even the private sector in India is looking for engagement and investment. So there is no near term hope of challenging the world order.
We cannot make India rule the world without changing India inside out. As long as we pretend that India is doing fine we - who want India to do better are scoring self goals against ourselves. we first need to accept that India is a bullshit beggar nation that has a lot of useless and corrupt people doing things that nobody can control. By pretending that India is doing fine and covering up the rot (no drinking water, no toliets) we are fooling ourselves into thinking that there is one chair for us at the high table. There is no such thing. The rot in India is so deep that it is utilised by fellow Indians to get aid which they misuse. Hankering for that high table ain't going to get it.