Bharat Rakshak

I think another fact deters GoI from testing. This time around there will be no Pakistan testing to give India company.

Now you understand LKAji's usefulness in 1998! So some thing else has to be the houbara.

Gentleman, I had a bunch of emails waiting for me bringing attention to the volatile legal discussions over here. I have now removed the posts from the thread.

Please use JE Menons posts as the standard for discussions on the forum. Additionally JEM is very polite in stating what is going wrong with the thread. Others would have used their 1-click-warn-3-click-ban button . This is not about supressing anyone's view point - this is only about polite discussions. make your point without resorting to ad hominem attacks. Its common sense after all

As for the legal aspects, please carry it over on email with the webmaster. You all have his contact particulars.

During high school days I learned that physics not only gives an yes/no answer but also gives a 20kt or 60kt answer. In later years I was told that modern science doesn't leave even god to ambiguity. Looks like science is not that good yet...

While we wait for more details;

NRao garu; Power corrupts. So PRC becoming benovelent after it becomes a super power is not logical. If that is the case, the west must help NoKo and Iran too to become super powers naa. PRC has grown multi-fold since 1960 and it dint change how PRC responded to Tiananmen sq or Tibet or uigher issues.

Idev-ji - even if we accept your logic, can us/west confirm that all 65+ missiles pointed at India have been dismantled?

Appa ; had I studied this much in college I would have at least become a Physics teacher in some school.

Anyways I did go though the papers in question and also read the comments posted by Arun saar on first few pages of this dhaga. Even before I go into the details let me be honest I did not find any way of co relating the findings from the two papers.

Also I don't know why there was a mention of Terhune's equation on first few pages of this thread specially when the 'K' for S-1 site is unknown and it is not the same for POK-1 and S-1 .

Rc= K * Y1/3

Rc= cavity radius (not the same as crater radius unless a subsidence crater is formed)
Y= yield

where K= NTS /(Pob*dob)1/4

NTS= constant (for a nuclear test site) (not known for S-1)
Pob= Overburden density (not known for S-1)
dob= depth of burial (what is this ? ~ 230 meters )

This Terhune's equation will work for armchairs like me only if S-1 be exploded in the exact same site as POK-1 and at the same 'scale depth'.

A cursory glance at the kind of papers out there on under ground nuclear explosions and yield measurement based on composition of the strata and the near site rock formations is still giving me head ache.

Coming to the Coordinate isue:

To quote the POST shot radio-chem paper



I.e. Just after the actual explosion the cavity is filled by the debris and overlaying rubble as governed by the late time phenomenology of the site ,it is apparent that samples exhibiting the desired radioactive signature were found to be distributed in a region which was symmetrical around the vertical axis (z) and not around a fixed point/origin in this puddle; this should explain the use of cylindrical coordinates.

Btw can anyone prove using data in above papers that the Crater formation of S-1 corresponds to a device YIELD of 25Kt or 20Kt ?

Not sure if this was posted earlier. By Uday Bhaskar.

http://www.maritimeindia.org/pdfs/santy_pokhran_2.pdf

DOUBTS OVER POKHRAN TESTS AND NO-FIRST-USE MISPLACED





Note that potential adversaries share the view that India's deterrence is there.

India is a victim of this genocide killing for many centuries. India will get the resolve to protect its own people when it happens again and we are close to such a period. This has nothing to do with democratic form of govt. There was poster who was trying to explain democratic govt as multiple groups having powers of the govt. That is ofcourse a joke and it is not the one to talk about here.


It is the generation which is intellectually colonized which is trying to rationalize the choices for the country

I am not sure I understand what you state, but, at a strategic level pretty much all efforts are geared to make the decision (to be made to involve nukes or not) as binary as possible. It perhaps does not reach that state, but it gets fairly close to it. In that point in time the state of mind would be should we do this or should we not and what are the consequences. That is it I would think - a very, very narrow set of thinking, the narrower the better.

All the examples you have provided are on a gray scale, with n number of shades of gray.

Comments?

Negi work on cavity for there was no crater in S-I. So its apples and oranges. And one can account for shale and pink granite but not pink chaddi.

When you ratio for the yields the K cancels. Also "pink" granite is stiffer than shale so cavity could be accordingly smaller.

So Rc2/Rc1 = (y2/y1)^1/3.4 per press conference or ^1/3 per Terhune. So whats should be Rc2 if it were shale and then account for pink granite. Qualitatively it will be smaller.

Then look at what was measured.

Shale?

No in the post shot paper.

It is laughable. Many western commentators have said Indians are childish.

^ Sir I tried ,even found some papers on Unkil's tests ; there are simply too many variables to even draw a comparasion . Fault lines within the strata, affect of the water table, heterogeneous composition of the media and finally the strength of the overlaying rock formations which prevent cavity build up to name a few (these were readable )


I did not understand as to how will K cancel out ; K depends on NTS constant (for a nuclear test site) and Pob= Overburden density latter can be different for both S-1 and POK-1 due to different composition of the burial site and of course governed by the depth of emplacement itself (which is established) .

Also how does one account for Fault lines, air void content and other anomalies in the strata which might influence the cavity formation ?

All in all Y1/Y2<>C1/C2 ; the % error involved in such a crude method of YIELD estimation is too high to pass a judgment on success of S-1.

Would that be Indian people or Indian bigwigs who own some 80% of the wealth in the country?

Bigwigs owning 80 per cent of the wealth in the country is hardly unique to India. In fact many studies have shown that compared to the P5 (including China) wealth distribution is relatively more egalitarian in India.

LDev's point that Indian governments, especially during the past two decades, do everything with one eye on the next elections holds, IMO. Maybe that's a disadvantage vis a vis China but that's the way we are and we need to work within that limitation.

Let's face it, we jingos may be right: the security given by a robust deterrent comprising large TN bombs on long range and accurate missiles, is more important than roti, kapra and makhan issues and so sanctions are a necessary evil in exchange for an immediate megaton series of tests.

However, is that so for the vast majority of Indians who trudge to the polling booth every once in a while to show their pleasure or displeasure at the ruling dispensation?

So can you blame the politicos if they keep an eye on these aam admi who don't know the difference between the amount of destruction a 20kt bomb can do as opposed to a 200 kt bomb and more importantly couldn't care less?

Heck, how many jingos on this forum vote any way?

Just want to know , had we have the Trillion stuffed in Swiss banks in GOI coffer , could it have given spine to leadership in negotiating with crooked power brokers of the world.

Not sure why you are going around in circles.

POKI (shale): Rc1 = K * Y1^0.294
POKII S1 (pink granite): Rc2 = K * Y2^0.294

Rc2/Rc1 = (Y2/Y1)^0.294

Rc1 = 30m from SHOCK3D paper
Y2 = 45kt as claimed by BARC
y1 = 12kt from US senate CTBT report and SHOCK3D paper

Rc2 ~= 44m in shale, will be smaller in pink granite

Per radio chem paper Rc2 is 40m, which is consistent with above.

Amit saar Ldev ji talked about cold war era a time when there was little media coverage and it was an all INC affair as far as elections were concerned. Strategic issues like nukes and even the Indo-US deal have never caught the imagination of the common Indian on the street who casts his/her vote (unlike us arm chair warriors) so let us not attribute GOI's lack of fore sight on elections or common man.

The GOI's reluctance to pursue nukes has been very clearly articulated by Admiral Arun Sharma in his paper , it is a different matter if it does not suit anyone's pov.

Should not matter. National security of a country where the people have suffered genocides for centuries from invaders not taking sufficient security measures acceptable to the prevailing standards do not need any other reason.

Nrao - what I am going to say is OT but your post provides me the opportunity to say it. A lot of tears are shed about the common man in India on this forum by people whom I beleive are detached from the dynamics of India. Weeping is easy, but changing the dynamics is next to impossible.

I will explain that from the way I saw things personally so that i don't hurt anyone else's sentiment as NRIs. Like many other NRIs I returned to India with all the usual high minded goals. One of the things that RNRI's take as a "given" is that they are already elite class and that they consider themselves wealthy and independent and therefore see themselves as uniquely placed to remove at least some of the imbalances and injustices - to save the common poor people of India from the clutches of the various corrupt injustices that exist in India.

The only problem with this idealistic view is that the returned NRI returns to join a society of elites just like himself who all contribute to society in one way or another and are not about to just give up their activities and power because yet another idealist elite has returned with stars in his eyes. Many generations of elites who are in India have been there and done that. India is also a capitalist society with many pockets of feudalism, but the aam junta are protected somewhat by socialist laws and taxpayer money - a significant amount of which comes from the wealthy who are able to pay tax.

India is a democracy and the elite have both power as well as being a vote bank themselves. Indian democracy has worked because it actually prevents the elite from swallowing up everything and gives some voice to the underprivileged and services like communication and health care to them. Despite appearing as greedy and non nationalistic the elite of India form powerful groups who can give the power to change India and because they are responsible for India's economy they are not blind to realities.

How does this pan out into a discussion on nuclear weapons?

It was earlier pointed out that if India tests there will be sanctions and the common man will suffer. The argument against that was that it is only the elite who will suffer and that the common man will be nationalistic and will not be affected much and that the elites are somehow preventing nationalism from rising up to the surface. I made that argument but I want to take it further to its logical conclusion.

Let me state what will happen if sanctions are placed. The elite get affected first. They react by tightening their belts. For example the elite who runs an export business affected by sanctions goes out of business and closes his factory, rendering perhaps 50 people jobless. The business owner being a capitalist already has assets and savings that enable him to continue to live well - but it is the aam junta whose lives are thrown out of gear. The government cannot help the aam junta who are affected in this way and the aam junta will take it out on the government leading to both economic misery for the people, reduced tax collections making the government less powerful to help as well as political strife as the government has to do the explaining.

This is why the decision to test cannot be made lightly. The personal lives of the elite will actually not be affected much. It is the aam junta of the country who will be affected. That is why I believe that it is ignorant naivete on this forum when I hear people living in la la land say that the "aam junta" are nationalistic and will shrug off sanctions. That echoes the viewpoint of a person who wants to make some profit by some means and rests his case on "patriotism" of aam junta and their ability to accept more crap since they are already on the crap heap. Alternatively it is a viewpoint that is deeply ignorant of India. The depth of ignorance is astounding - and I find it easy to break the dream by listing development statistics of Indian reality and that only gets angry and upset responses of people who either did not know or are denying reality in India. Either way they will have no influence on what happens in India unless they can bring themselves to "join" rather than impose their views. The Indian elite are far more patriotic than they are given credit for and it does not do to belong to an elite group yourself and claim that you do not belong there and pretend that you are part of "aam junta". That is like Paki pretending to be Indian for convenience. Best done when you are living far from reality.

It is the Pakistan model to say that the people are patriotic and will eat grass and to ensure that the people do eat grass while the elite lead fine lifestyles. It is always the elite who are least affected. That, fortunately, is not (yet) the amount to which India has degenerated.

Nah... K is not the same in two equations it is a constant that defines the composition of the strata where the device is placed how can it be canceled out ? You yourself mention shale in one equation and granite in another where is the variable to account for that ?

Infact read that equation again; if K is indeed same across different sites then Yield is only dependent on the Cavity radius ; this is not even funny.

More over let me be very clear even if K is the same for both the sites even then there is no guarantee that Rc1/Rc2=Y1/Y2 ; arrey baba what if one of the sites is near a fault line or just above a water table or has close in rock formations near by .

That equation works well only for a very well calibrated site with a homogeneous media that too for a finite range of burial depth.

Negi,see you were afraid what trap i will lay for you! BTW are you humanities minor?

Doesn't this bring some closure for atleast one way of yield estimation?

Shiv Saaarji, this is the reason i asked the question about Swiss Bank $. It has the potential to change the leadership behaviour to speed up desired policies with confidence. The fault is in us ,not in the Western or Chinese Stars. Keeping such huge capital unused in other country while motherland suffers and deprived of proper strategic space tetanounts to treason of high degree.

Sir, both are for pokhran site except for depth of burial. POKI was in shale and S1 was in pink granite. K(shale) != K(granite), but assume it is equal to K(shale). Do the calculation for Rc2 (44m) and then adjust for pink granite (<44m). Is the result consistent or not?

[/quote]

Thank you Shiv saar - I had been wondering what you meant by your earlier post that 'sanctions hurt the elite'. It is well known that the 'trickle down' theory works much better ('waterfall') during adversity

The economic costs of nuke-deterrence is pure nonsense (not sensible) argument. India has been taking western sactions in one or other form since 1947 for various reasons.

If it so simple, then Indian economy must have had 7464773738% growth till 1998 and then fell below 0.00004783% after nuke tests.

Justification is the worst form of CMD, because it allows one to justify even a pre-emptiv nuke attack. For example we have 647,000,000 bums of 20kt capacity. Shouldn't that be reason enough to justify, say a (justified) paki pre-emptive attack? Haven't we already justify paki terrorism in the name of conventional-military imbalance?

For the sanctions which India went thru for the last 30-40 years at least there should have been serious attempt at a successful TN test.
but there are lot of people who will come up with long post to say that this group or that group only suffered. With a large population everybody is a looser and with a lunatic neighbor it becomes dangerous to even give excuse.

Ok so now at least you agree that K1<>K2.

Now what is the point ? Since I am a poor humanities type will some one state his/her verdict in black and white and give a final verdict .

Shiv-ji

Forgive my ignorence. You are more knowledgeable and experienced than I can ever be. If elite or truly nationalistic, the way you espouse, they would not tighten their belts at the first instance of sanctions. They would differentiate between their self intersts and national interests.

But again we are talking about generalizations, with plenty of outliers .

Prem I am trying to point out that the Swiss bank account money is only the most visible vulgar excess of a small minority of the elite. If you start going into detail - you will find that most of us and our families - be they retired teachers, bankers or armed forces officers have all set aside perhaps 10 lakhs up to a few dozen lakhs or a crore or two and a house that is paid for that will see them through temporary economic economic hardship. The net result is the same even though the assets and savings are much lower than Swiss bank account.

The important point here is that when my family or your family face hardship we have savings that we can dip into and we do not wait for Swiss accounts to be opened up to feed our families. But more than 50% of the people in India do not have this "insurance' - which works for us just like Swiss account. When they are jobless they have no food.

That is why it is hypocritical to say "Let us face hardship and let the Swiss bank account money come to bail us out when Indian face hardship from testing". Neither will the Swiss bank account money come out nor will we part with our own meager savings to bail out the poor. The poorest need money earned continuously. The medium wealthy can survive for weeks to months of no earnings. The wealthiest can survive for a lifetime.

For us "the medium wealthy" (or perhaps very wealthy?) testing and sanctions are a good gamble. We will survive for the months to years that sanctions affect us. But when someone asks how the poorest will survive the only answer is that "Somebody else will have to pull out money from his Swiss account" That argument is a bogey.

Ramana ji

everyone can estimate based on data points ; key thing is how 'accurate' that estimate is and is it good enough to pass a verdict on the success of the S-1 device.

Let me re- iterate my points:

[b]
All in all K1/K2<>C1/C2 ( Yeah this is a goof up, I meant one cannot assume K1/K2=C1/C2 because the the equation does not account for anomalies in the strata).

This has been substantiated by Dr. Sikka,AK et al ie. if one uses Terhune's formula then cavity radius for POK-I comes out to about 27 mtrs and not 30 mtrs.

Here http://www.fas.org/news/india/1998/11/india-981100.htm

That is a direct 10% off the correct measured size of the POK-I cavity.

All in all that equation with 2 variables Rc, Y and a constant 'K' does not account for certain anomalies ; and this is even more serious when the site is not well calibrated which is the case for Pokharan.

RamaY I can see that you are patriotic. But if you have a child and that child does not get food because India conducted a nuclear test, would you tighten your child's belt? This is a rhetorical example for which there can be no answer other than the one I want - but it does pan out to reality when you look at the way all humans behave in crisis.

Oh but India is a responsible power no? We need to behave responsibly in the comity of nations.

I can write more but some people may not be able to understand anything more than one liners and worry about long posts.

Shiv Ji we are going OT here , but having Trillion in cash reserve will deter any power to put sanction or help in remove such thought. It buys us lot of strategic space in cash starved world today. Chinese are using the same leverage and old power brokers are lining up for their blessings.Having Million for family security is ok and understandable but not Billions or Trillion as kept in Swiss Banks.

Prem Indians cannot make national plans on money that is there but cannot be brought into circulation. If we want to make plans about money that "has to come from somewhere" it is the same as not testing now till India's economy grows.

Of course I am not arguing that India must not test. I wouldn't mind seeing a couple of big ones. But I fear that I am less likely to suffer than poorer Indians. Am I unpatriotic for feeling that way?

Or people only understand piskology.

India has a long tradition of brevity-it is said that changing the aa to a syllable in Sanskrit prosidy would be rejoiced as would the birth of a son.

But then what did the ancients know?

That is what you are doing next already.


That 10% is your systematic error due to the exponent value difference in the yield calculation alone. Now you can also ask how different are the K's, which also contribute to your systematic errors.

Is k1/k2 = 1-e, where e is small. So that is the next part that contributes to the error.

The ancients knew that in 1998 brevity in information released would no longer be accepted by Indic nationalist patriots. Long explanations are being demanded.

Taking it further, as you correctly point out this methodology gives large systematic errors. See, even if you did multiple measurements on the crater( or cavity) radius and bought your measurement errors for Rc down to 0.0000001% or less, you are stuck with the larger systematic ones. The reason why this information is free and for all to see and put wild upper and lower limits on the yield values. The real data is only for the scientists who make the bums and GoI to be kept under lock and key.