Pakistan arms sales, ops, doctrine, etc

[SSridhar]

JF-17, a quantum leap in technology

The primary aim of the JF-17 co-production project is to establish the capability for the agreed work-share and to sustain a production rate commensurate with PAF’s operational requirements. In order to produce its share of work, AMF {Aircraft Manufacturing Factory} is establishing the capability to manufacture, assemble, and test this modern fighter aircraft. The capabilities being acquired represent the cutting edge of technology, have broad industrial applications, and are in most cases unprecedented in Pakistan in terms of capability and capacity. In the field of avionics development, self-reliance has been achieved by acquiring complete Integration-technology.

In the JF-17 programme, first milestone in manufacturing was achieved with the capability of sub-assembly work in Jan 2008. In planning for the JF-17 project, the sub-assembly manufacturing was preferred as the beginning step in view of the previous experience from production of Karakoram-8 jet trainer. After the readiness of necessary infrastructure, human resource, and the administrative framework, the final assembly and flight-testing commenced in June 2009. On 23 November, in the same year, the first indigenously assembled JF-17 aircraft rolled-out from the Aircraft Manufacturing Factory of Pakistan Aeronautical Complex. The JF-17 co-production project is one of the most ambitious projects undertaken at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex. The tangible benefits of the JF-17 programme extend beyond the apparent defence outlook to the creation of a highly enabled technological hub in the country. The wide array of diversified engineering facilities presents opportunities to both academia and the industrial sector of Pakistan. The presence of state-of-the-art technology within their reach can greatly enhance the awareness level with minimal additional investment. Experts can research on ways to best utilise the latest technologies available at PAC to the mutual benefit, thus innovatively improving the value-addition in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan.

The fruits of this endeavour are manifested in the form of JF-17 Thunder aircraft, which is an all weather lightweight aircraft, having an advanced airframe design, high aerial manoeuvrability, state-of-the-art avionics systems, and a wide array of weapons. Equipped with these features, it can truly be placed in the higher strata of medium-tech aircraft category. The flexibility of customisation in incorporating the avionics suite would prevent the briskness of technological advancements from outpacing the strategic foresight. The JF-17 has been designed to stand in good stead in the future and it is envisaged to remain the mainstay of PAF for years to come

The JF-17 Thunder programme is a landmark achievement in the quest for realising a dream through friendly cooperation between two countries. The personnel of PAF draw inspiration from the countless sacrifices rendered by our national heroes and the contribution made towards defence of the motherland. The distinction of belonging to a select group of countries capable of manufacturing a fighter aircraft should indeed be a boost to the national esteem. The people of Pakistan can cherish the JF-17 Thunder with resounding national pride, as the skies of their beloved motherland shall be guarded by a potent homegrown platform.

[shiv]

For FC-1, China purchased the MiG-33 design and test data to quickly develop the plane.

Thanks to this post I was able to figure out the real history of the JF-17 Bundaar and the meaning of a Chinese video from which I had made some screen grabs.

The Chinese had first tried to collaborate with Grumman to make an aircraft called the "Super-7" based on the Grumman Sabre-II. That is what featured in that video and the screen grabs showing the Grumman brochure is below. For some reason I was unable to get the video from the url in the image.

But this idea of collaboration collapsed after Tiananmen (1989) and it was after that the Chinese went to the Russians and bought their Type 33 design to create the "Pakistani" JF-17.

Click on thumbnail

[shiv]

Looking for the history/timeline of the JF-17 I found these:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sabre_II

The Sabre II Project was a project for the development of a joint fighter by China, Pakistan and the Grumman Aerospace Corporation in the late 1980s based on the Chinese F-7 fighter (MiG-21 derivative), which was abandoned in 1990 when Grumman pulled out after the Tiananmen Square protests in China in 1989.
[edit] Origins - Project Sabre II

In 1984 the latest export version of the Chengdu F-7, an extensively upgraded form of the F-7B incorporating various Western systems and designated F-7M Airguard, was released. Pakistan was interested in developing and manufacturing an improved version of the F-7M to replace its large fleet of Shenyang F-6 and move Pakistan's aviation industry forward. Grumman Aerospace of the United States was contracted to do a 5 month feasibility study and in September 1987 the F-7 Sabre II was revealed.[1]

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) started looking for a new fighter to replace their large fleet of Shenyang F-6,[1] which were approaching the end of their service lives, in the late 1980s.[2] After becoming interested in the F-7M, the PAF initiated Project Sabre II to re-design and upgrade the Chengdu F-7M.[1][3]

In January 1987, a contract was awarded to Grumman Aerospace of Bethpage, New York, to study and define the Sabre II concept with cooperation from CAC and PAF specialists. The study was completed after seven months and concluded that the project was a financial risk due to very high costs and other options were much more cost-effective, despite the prospects of producing Sabre II in Pakistan and giving the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex more experience and technical knowledge.[2]

In September 1987 it was reported that a 5 month feasibility study had been completed by Grumman, working in cooperation with CAC, CATIC and the PAF, in which the Chengdu F-7M was radically upgraded. Known as Sabre II, the upgrade involved fitting the F-7M with modern Western radar, avionics, engine and a re-designed forward fuselage. It was stated that Sabre II would replace 150 Shenyang F-6 in PAF service. A picture showed that the F-7's nose inlet had been replaced with a solid nose radome and a new pair of air inlets were mounted on the sides of the fuselage under the cockpit.[4]

Under Project Sabre II, considered a replacement of the abandoned Super-7 project by the Chinese, the F-7 airframe was redesigned with angled air intakes on the sides of the fuselage replacing the nose intake. The nose intake was replaced by a solid nose radome to house the avionics from the F-20 Tigershark. The Chinese WP-7 turbojet engine was planned to be replaced with a modern turbofan engine, either the GE F404 or PW1120, to improve performance.[5] The resulting aircraft, designated F-7M Sabre-II,[6] would have looked much like the Guizhou JL-9 (or FTC-2000) jet trainer / fighter aircraft.

http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/art ... 2713.shtml

Light Fighter FC-1 (Fighter China-1)

The development of this fighter, the improved copy of Soviet MIG-33 (which R&D was terminated due to absence of money at the beginning of 1990s), started at Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corp., in 1994-95.

More exactly, MIG-33 designers resumed this terminated project in Moscow under supervision of experts from Chengdu city and with financing from PLA. In 1995, Chengdu Corp. purchased 100 units advanced RD-93 jet engines, for the future FC-1, at Klimov Aircraft Corp. in St. Petersburg.

In 1997-98, Pakistani Air Forces joined this project; Pakistan provided significant part of R&D financing and is obliged to purchase one half of the future FC-1 production. Despite all the efforts, the project dealt with a lot of problems, and only at the beginning of 2001 did it enter the last stage.

In mid-June 2002, it became known, from Beijing and Taibei sources, that the FC-1 fighter – to be used by PLA Air Force in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea as well as by the Pakistani air force along the border with India – will enter serial production in 2003.

It was emphasized that Pakistan, and probably some other developing countries, would pay $25 million for each FC-1, characterized by high combat capacities at low altitude and combat range (with the return to the same airdrome after mission accomplished) of 1,500 km.

Finally, on Sept. 14-19, Xinhua agency, Renmin Ribao and other leading Beijing papers published a series of messages regarding "final success" of FC-1 project (briefly):

Live-size model of jointly developed by China and Pakistan FC-1 fighter will be represented, together with J-10 fighter and other most significant achievements of Chinese aircraft and space industry, at Zhuhai Airshow 2002.

On Sept. 16, FC-1 fighter officially entered production at Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corp., thus becoming a "gift" to CPC 16th Congress. It is a real fighter of the new (fourth) generation eligible for PLAAF service and for export. As an all-weather, multi-use light fighter, it is equipped with advanced electronic system and could launch medium-range missile and carry out air-to-air, air-to-ground and anti-ship attacks.

FC-1 can carry up to six missiles including such air-to-air short-range and mid-range missiles as Chinese-made PL-5C, PL-9 and Russian-made R-27P. FC-1 has the length of 14 m, height of 5.1 m, wingspan of 9 m; it has full takeoff weight of 12,700 kg including 3,800-kg weapon load, maximal ceiling of 16,500 m, maximal speed 1.6 Mach (2,000 km per hour).

and

#

Preliminary conclusions regarding FC-1 fighter could be as follows:

# By the end of 2002, Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corp. would produce 10-15 units of the FC-1 fighter.

# In 2003-2005, the rate of this fighter production could increase up to 30-50 units a year.

# By the end of 2005, PLAAF and the Pakistani Air Force could have up to 100 units of the FC-1 in service.

[shiv]

JF-17 timeline:
http://www.airforce-technology.com/proj ... jf17thund/

Development of the JF-17 began with the origination of Super-7 in 1986 under a $500m joint Chengdu-Grumman development project, but the project was cancelled for financial and political reasons.

Chengdu continued the development of Super-7 in 1991 under the brand name FC-1 / JF-17. Pakistan and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in 1995 to build the aircraft. In 1998, the countries signed a Letter of Intent and the contract was awarded in June 1999.

To speed up development, the avionics and radar systems design of the aircraft was separated from the airframes. The preliminary design was completed in 2001 and the detailed structure in 2002. Funding for the programme was provided by China Aviation Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) and Pakistan, each owning a 50% stake.

Development of the first prototype began in September 2002 and production was completed in May 2003. Design flaws of the JF-17 were identified after its first flight in 2003. After a significant redesign the fourth prototype production was completed in April 2006. The sixth prototype first flew in September 2006.

Sub-assemblies of the JF-17 started in Pakistan on 22 January 2008 and final assembly began in June 2009.

24 years from idea to production of a copied design after the earlier copy from Grumman was not possible.

[shiv]

More details on the history of the JF-17
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... a/fc-1.htm

The FC-1 "Chao Qi" is an all-weather, multipurpose light fighter aircraft. The aircraft is equipped with advanced avionics and armed with medium-range missiles. It is capable of carrying out both air-to-air and air-to-groud missions.

By 2004 this new multi-role fighter had been redesignated the Xialon (Fierce Dragon), and for Pakistan as JF-17 "Thunder". It might be designated J-9 when it becomes operational.
Super-7 (Chao Qi)

In 1986, China signed a $550 million agreement with Grumman to modernize 55 of its fleet of J-7 fighters under the so-called "Super-7" upgrade, but this agreement was canceled in early 1990, in the wake of the cooling of political relations with the West, as well as in response to a 40% increase in the cost of the project.

The "SUPER-7" was the first fighter jet completely designed and manufactured by China. Super-7 (Chao Qi) fighter is China's new generation fighter and the first of its kind of the nation's own intellectual property rights. The third-generation fighter plane, which can carry 3.8 tons of missiles, also has improved systems for attacking ground targets. Its advanced radar positioning and operating systems give the plane greater flexibility and better close-range manoeuvrability.

Development of the "Super 7" upgrade was slowed with the end of American technical assistance following the Tienanmen repression of 1989. Pakistan and China foreclosed the option of producing F-Super 7 Aircraft due to non-availability of Engines. It had been planned around MiG 27 Engine which the Russians refused to supply.
FC-1 (Fighter China 1)

As a substitute for the Super-7, China is developing the FC-1 (Fighter China 1) lightweight multipurpose fighter based on the design for the MiG-33, which was rejected by the Soviet Air Force. The FC-1 is being developed with a total investment in excess of $500 million, including support from the China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation (CATIC), mainly for export to replace the 120 F-7M/P fighters currently in service in the Pakistani Air Force, though it is possible that the Chinese Air Force will use this aircraft as well. The deal to manufacture 150 FC-1 (Fighter China) jets was struck when General Musharraf visited China just before the Kargil war in 1998.

Chengdu Aircraft Industry Company [CAIC], based in Sichuan Province, is China's second-largest fighter production base, and the enterprise is cooperating with Pakistan's Aviation Integrated Company and Russia's Mikoyan Aero-Science Production Group [MASPG] in the development of the FC-1. Israel and several European countries are being considered as suppliers for the plane's avionics. The first flight was planned for 1997 with delivery to the Pakistani Air Force scheduled for 1999.

[Kartik]

For FC-1, China purchased the MiG-33 design and test data to quickly develop the plane.

Thanks to this post I was able to figure out the real history of the JF-17 Bundaar and the meaning of a Chinese video from which I had made some screen grabs.

The Chinese had first tried to collaborate with Grumman to make an aircraft called the "Super-7" based on the Grumman Sabre-II. That is what featured in that video and the screen grabs showing the Grumman brochure is below. For some reason I was unable to get the video from the url in the image.

But this idea of collaboration collapsed after Tiananmen (1989) and it was after that the Chinese went to the Russians and bought their Type 33 design to create the "Pakistani" JF-17.

Click on thumbnail

Shivji, see this link on Flight Global archives, dating back to 1987 that shows the result of Grumman's feasibility study for the Sabre II

[shiv]

Thanks Kartik. But there seems to be one more mystery here.

To my eye there is enough similarity between the Sabre II and FC-1 to link them. That makes the so called "cancelled" MiG 33/Project 33 which the Chinese are supposed to have bought in 1990 or so a big mystery. No drawings exist. Did that really happen - or is the "buying the designs of MiG 33" story a cover up for the fact that the FC-1 took 15 years and not 4 years to develop using the original Grumman concept?

[shiv]

Well - from Keypubs forums - this appears to be an image of the MiG project 33 that China bought from Russia
http://www.aviation.ru/MiG/35/MiG-35d.jpg

Source
http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?t=47954

[shiv]

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ac/row/fc-1.htm

The FC-1 was to make it's first flight in 1996, but the project was delayed when Pakistan sought to upgrade the performance characteristics of the FC-1 to respond to India's acquisition of Su-30MKIs. After several years of stagnation, the Pakistani Prime Minister's February 1998 trip to China resulted in an agreement to continue development of the fighter. Currently Pakistan is interested in acquiring at least 150 fighters, with the Chinese contemplating acquiring over 200.

[shiv]

Ah - adding confusion..
http://mulrickillion.wordpress.com/2011 ... r-fighter/

The JF-17 is being built by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation (CAC), and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAIC) is expected to license produce it at a later stage. Initial reports claimed that the aircraft was based on the design of the MiG-33, a proposed single-engined version of the MiG-29, which was rejected by the Soviet Air Force. However, the FC-1/JF-17 is instead derived from the "Super Seven" project, not the Project 33 (not to be confused with the MiG-33) or the failed Chengdu J-9. Indications are that MiG assisted the program by contributing their light fighter design as well as providing additional design & development assistance.

[Singha]

well there is even a yugoslav design thats quite similar to JF17. the chinese probably took their time buying up and studying/playing with these designs before the Pakis were satisfied/desperate enough to fund the program into production level testing and delivery. while now they may get a few F16 /annum through usual mix of threats and GUBOing, back then they had been 'abandoned' and really had no money and no choices.

[shiv]

I post this for two reasons:
1) Pakis were not lying when they were talking about a "Super-7" a decade or so ago That became their JF-17. Clearly they will acquire J-10s next and Chinese IRST will be integrated into the JF-17s. Provided the country manages to survive. Or the Chinese give it to them free.
2) Once a Chinese item gets into Paki hands we get to know more about Chinese tech. The JF-17 is the only aircraft that has come out in the last 5 years that does not make extensive use of composites. More on that in the China watch thread
http://asian-defence.blogspot.com/2010/ ... -show.html

The poster on Pakdef known as Eagle Hannan is a Pakistani engineer who works in Nanjing, China. He speaks both Urdu and Chinese fluently. He is a serious military aviation enthusiast. The city he comes from in China, Nanjing, is also the home of two of the J-10 pilots from the PLAAF that participated in the Zhuhai Air Show, 2010. He stayed at the same hotel as the PAF pilots and had many conversations with them as well as the PLAAF pilots. . Hannan attended all three public holidays and spent all three days with pilots and senior officers. Hannan has managed to collect a large amount of information and media and these have been cleared by senior personnel from the PAF for public release.

What follows is a summary of Eagle Hannan's posts from Pakdef.

Hannan describes the aerobatics display of the JF-17 as brilliant. The JF-17 flew twice every day of the air show. He notes that the weather conditions were very bad and hard to take videos in. He said that the J-10s did not perform particularly well. Hannan comments that in 14 minutes of display there was a single performance of 360 and three half-hearted loops. He observes that the rest of the displays by the J-10 were formation flights. He notes that one of the Sherdil pilots comments about the J-10 pilots in Punjabi that the old men of China cannot fly their own planes.

In comparison, the JF-17s did much better. Hannan describes the Chinese crowd as going “wild” with the Thunder’s repeated tight turns, without a single one off-target from the venue.

In his conversations with the PAF, he has found out the following:

1. JF-17s will not have CFTs (Conformal Fuel Tanks).

2. The present batch of JF-17s has certain non-Chinese subsystems.

3. Air to Air missile tests for both WVR and BVR are complete.

4. PAF is impressed with the performance of SD-10s and confirms that the missile is comparable to the AMRAAM-Cs.

5. An improved SD-10s, designated here as SD-10Bs with improved range, seeker, new motor and better seeker has been tested in China on the FC-1. These missiles are marginally lighter than the first generation and are in the same standard as the best Western BVR AAMs.


The weight of the SD-10Bs still remains slightly greater than the AMRAAM Cs but this is not an issue anymore because the performance is equal or superior. The missiles displayed in Zhuhai were not the new generation SD-10Bs but the earlier model. PAF order for the SD-10Bs will be fulfilled before PLAAF. Previous models will be upgraded to the new SD-10B standard. [Author’s note: this may suggest that PAF have provided critical input for the SD-10Bs]

6. PAF will standardize to this SD-10Bs. First 50 will have PL-9Cs as standard WVR missiles.

7. A new radar will possibly be used in the Block II JF-17s and the first block will be upgraded. These are likely to be AESA radars with a swash-plate, similar to the Gripen NG.

[shukla]

2 Pakistani aircraft detected flying close to Indian air space: IAF
DNA

Two Pakistani aircraft today flew close to the international border in the Jammu sector, triggering an air defence alert of the Indian Air Force (IAF). The two low-flying Pakistani light aircraft were detected close to Indian territory and were sighted by BSF troops deployed in the RS Pura Sector in Jammu, IAF sources said.

"Their movement and approach were picked up by our sensors and radars," they said. Though the aircraft were flying in Pakistani territory, it was a breach of agreement between the two sides barring flying of fixed-wing aircraft in 10km area from each side of the international boundary, they said.

The issue, the sources said, would also be taken up with Pakistani authorities through the external affairs ministry. In the last three years, Pakistan's military aircraft, helicopters and spy drones or unmanned aerial vehicles have violated Indian airspace on 23 occasions.

[SSridhar]

Provided the country manages to survive.

[Craig Alpert]

Pakistani blk 52 F-16s will have Goodrich DB-110 recce pods as per AFM. These are the most advanced recce pods on combat aircraft in service with NATO currently.

[SandeepS]

PN to get 6 AIP subs from China

Hopefully this should get the attention of MoD to hasten the decision on our subs.

[shiv]

PN to get 6 AIP subs from China

Hopefully this should get the attention of MoD to hasten the decision on our subs.

er once again I want to point out that a Pakistani acquisition of subs should not hasten our acquisition of subs, but should point towards making more robust our anti-submarine platforms as well as the ability to decimate submarine bases.

I full understand your sentiment and there is a normal human "tit for tat" reaction - but these are fundamentally errors that spill over into the general consciousness of people and then into the media as well. For example (sorry to go OT) The development of a J-20 should make us look into detection and interception of stealth rather than complaining that Tejas is generation 3 plus.

[SandeepS]

I agree with your point that knee-jerk reaction to an event happening in our neighbourhood is no way to strategise. However, my point albiet a very brief one, was regarding the prolonged and back 'n forth nature of taking decisions by MoD. Thereby putting the tactics and strategies of the services at risk. Once the services have conducted their trials objectively and presented their case and plans, then after due diligence by MoD their machinery should kick-in to negotiate within stipulated timelines and not make a mockery of the entire weapons acquisition process. I remember reading somewhere that this is the first financial year when MoD has expended their allocated budget, rather having to return large portions of it unutilised due to delays in taking decisions. The article by AM S Raghavendran - Honey, I Shrunk the funds! (For New Acquisitions) always makes an interesting insight into the MoD's acquisition process and how they make IAF's Plans Branch do tap-dance every year...sadly!

Apologies for going OT.

[Singha]

PN has hardly anything worth sinking...so the indian submarine program has to orient towards PLAN. our ASW plans as Shiv pointed out must deal with PN + PLAN.

[Dmurphy]

Just heard on twitter that Col. Imam has been killed!

[sumshyam]

Just heard on twitter that Col. Imam has been killed!

so what....RIP...!

anyhow I do expect it was not a done attack...

[Singha]

who is this Col Imam ?

[nachiket]

who is this Col Imam ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonel_Imam

[Boreas]

Just heard on twitter that Col. Imam has been killed!

"To the one who dealt the first blow."

[Singha]

I think all of pakistans older agosta and daphne subs are due to retirement. the newest (2 agosta) are 30 yrs and oldest (4 daphne) are 40 yrs old. so all are due to retire and thats were the number of 6 comes from most likely.

PN has a grand total of 3 agosta90b which can be considered ready and modern. the chinese will likely give them some "Yuan" class kilo type subs since the "Song" design was tried out and apparently abandoned as unworthy of mass production. PRC is tight with german cos like Siemens...so not sure if Siemens would have sold some AIP tech to them on the sly under some commercial side contract...or they could have bought some tech and developed the rest on their own.

in any case these new 6 will be much better than the 30-40 yr old obsolete subs they will replace. PRC could even modify 2 tubes to a large 26" diameter and gft them the submarine version of babur to form a "triad" of sorts for more equal-equal to crow about.

[Gagan]

The Yuan class has german engines.

The pakistanis would have surely let the chinese have a good dekko into the MESMA AIP on the 90b's.

[arun]

Story dating back 5 days to Jan 22nd.

PNS Alamgir, formerly Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate USS McInerney damaged:

Pakistani Ship Hits Pier Near Naval Station Mayport

[shukla]

45 F-16 fighter jets being upgraded in Turkey: Pak Air Chief

Talking to media after a ceremony in police lines Islamabad, Air Chief said that 45 F-16 fighter gets are being upgraded in Turkey. He added that new squadrons of F-16 and JF-17 thunder planes would be constituted in March. He informed that PAF have 21 JF-17 thunder jets in final stage while nine are being manufactured.

[shiv]

Story dating back 5 days to Jan 22nd.

PNS Alamgir, formerly Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate USS McInerney damaged:

Pakistani Ship Hits Pier Near Naval Station Mayport

Mayport is in Florida, Amreeka I think. Florida sits low in the water with lots of swamps. I think it might be possible to sink Florida by ramming it with an American ship, just like the twin towers were brought down after ramming with an American aircraft.

[Singha]

funny comment after that article:

kenola wrote:
1. What in the H e double L is a Pakistani Naval WAR ship doing in our country????? ON OUR NAVAL BASE!!!!!!!
2. Did we just give them one of our ships?
What is going on in this country???
Hope they didn't hide a remote controlled nuke onboard.
Are we really letting this happen?
What would John Wayne have done?

[arun]

45 F-16 fighter jets being upgraded in Turkey: Pak Air Chief

Talking to media after a ceremony in police lines Islamabad, Air Chief said that 45 F-16 fighter gets are being upgraded in Turkey. He added that new squadrons of F-16 and JF-17 thunder planes would be constituted in March. He informed that PAF have 21 JF-17 thunder jets in final stage while nine are being manufactured.

i was under the impression that the modernisation was to cover 41 aircraft. Seems the Pakistani’s have got 4 more F-16’s as Jaziya from the US.

Turkish Aerospace Industries Inc press release:

PAF F-16 MODERNIZATION

[arun]

I think all of pakistans older agosta and daphne subs are due to retirement. the newest (2 agosta) are 30 yrs and oldest (4 daphne) are 40 yrs old. so all are due to retire and thats were the number of 6 comes from most likely. ............ {Snipped}

The Daphne class submarines were decommissioned in January 2006:

Pak-navy decommissioned 4 more French origin submarines

[Sayak]

New estimates put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at more than 100

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...013004136.html


Pakistan's nuclear arsenal now totals more than 100 deployed weapons, a doubling of its stockpile over the past several years in one of the world's most unstable regions, according to estimates by non-government analysts.

The Pakistanis have significantly accelerated production of uranium and plutonium for bombs and developed new weapons to deliver them. After years of approximate weapons parity, experts said, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival.

An escalation of the South Asian arms race poses a dilemma for the Obama administration, which has worked to improve its economic, political and defense ties with India, while seeking to deepen its relationship with Pakistan as a crucial component of its Afghanistan war strategy.

In politically fragile Pakistan, the administration is caught between fears of proliferation or possible terrorist attempts to seize nuclear materials and Pakistani suspicions that the United States aims to control or limit its weapons program and favors India.

Those suspicions were on public display last week at the opening session of U.N. disarmament talks in Geneva, where Pakistani Ambassador Zamir Akram accused the United States and other major powers of "double standards and discrimination" for pushing a global treaty banning all future production of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium.

Adoption of what is known as the "fissile materials cutoff treaty," a key element of President Obama's worldwide non-proliferation agenda, requires international consensus. Pakistan has long been the lone holdout.
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While Pakistan has produced more nuclear-armed weapons, India is believed to have larger existing stockpiles of such fissile material for future weapons. That long-term Indian advantage, Pakistan has charged, was further enhanced by a 2008 U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation agreement. The administration has deflected Pakistan's demands for a similar deal.

Brig. Gen. Nazir Butt, defense attache at the Pakistani Embassy in Washington, said the number of Pakistan's weapons and the status of its production facilities were confidential.

"Pakistan lives in a tough neighborhood and will never be oblivious to its security needs," Butt said. "As a nuclear power, we are very confident of our deterrent capabilities."

But the administration's determination to bring the fissile materials ban to completion this year may compel it to confront more directly the issue of proliferation in South Asia. As U.S. arms negotiator Rose Gottemoeller told Bloomberg news at the U.N. conference Thursday: "Patience is running out."

Other nuclear powers have their own interests in the region. China, which sees India as a major regional competitor, has major investments in Pakistan and a commitment to supply it with at least two nuclear-energy reactors.

Russia has increased its cooperation with India and told Pakistan last week that it was "disturbed" about its arms buildup.

"It's a risky path, particularly for a government under pressure," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, fresh from a visit to Islamabad, said during remarks at the Nixon Center on Thursday.

Wary of upsetting Pakistan's always-fragile political balance, the White House rarely mentions the country's arsenal in public except to voice confidence in its strong internal safeguards, with warheads kept separate from delivery vehicles. But the level of U.S. concern was reflected during last month's White House war review, when Pakistan's nuclear security was set as one of two long-term strategy objectives there, along with the defeat of al-Qaeda, according to a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

A publicly released summary of the classified review document made no reference to the nuclear issue, and the White House deflected questions on grounds that it was an intelligence matter. This week, a spokesman said the administration would not respond to inquiries about the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor referred to Obama's assurance at last spring's Nuclear Security Summit that he felt "confident about Pakistan's security around its nuclear weapons program." Vietor noted that Obama hs encouraged "all nations" to support negotiations on the fissile cutoff treaty.

"The administration is always trying to keep people from talking about this knowledgeably," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security and a leading analyst on the world's nuclear forces. "They're always trying to downplay" the numbers and insisting that "it's smaller than you think."

"It's hard to say how much the U.S. knows," said Hans M. Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists and author of the annual global nuclear weapons inventory published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. "Probably a fair amount. But it's a mixed bag - Pakistan is an ally, and they can't undercut it with a statement of concern in public."
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Beyond intelligence on the ground, U.S. officials assess Pakistan's nuclear weapons program with the same tools used by the outside experts - satellite photos of nuclear-related installations, estimates of fissile-material production and weapons development, and publicly available statements and facts.

Four years ago, the Pakistani arsenal was estimated at 30 to 60 weapons.

"They have been expanding pretty rapidly," Albright said. Based on recently accelerated production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, "they could have more than doubled in that period," with current estimates of up to 110 weapons.

Kristensen said it was "not unreasonable" to say that Pakistan has now produced at least 100 weapons. Shaun Gregory, director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at Britain's University of Bradford, put the number at between 100 and 110.

Some Pakistani officials have intimated they have even more. But just as the United States has a vested interest in publicly downplaying the total, Pakistan sees advantage in "playing up the number of weapons they've got," Gregory said. "They're at a disadvantage with India with conventional forces," in terms of both weaponry and personnel.

Only three nuclear countries - Pakistan, India and Israel - have never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. India is estimated to have 60 to 100 weapons; numbers are even less precise for Israel's undeclared program, estimated at up to 200. North Korea, which has conducted nuclear tests and is believed to have produced enough fissile material for at least a half-dozen bombs, withdrew from the treaty in 2003.

Those figures make Pakistan the world's fifth largest nuclear power, ahead of "legal" powers France and Britain. The vast bulk of nuclear stockpiles are held by the United States and Russia, followed by China.

While Pakistan has no declared nuclear doctrine, it sees its arsenal as a deterrent to an attack by the Indian forces that are heavily deployed near its border. India has vowed no first-use of nuclear weapons, but it depends on its second-strike capability to deter the Pakistanis.

The United States imposed nuclear-related sanctions on both Pakistan and India after weapons tests in 1998, but lifted them shortly after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. With U.S. guidance and a $100 million assistance program, Pakistan moved to increase international confidence by overhauling its command and control structures.

Revelations in 2004 about an illegal international nuclear procurement network run by Pakistani nuclear official A.Q. Khan, which supplied nuclear materials to Libya, Iran and North Korea, led to further steps to improve security.

The 2008 agreement that permits India to purchase nuclear fuel for civilian purposes was a spur to Pakistani weapons production, experts said. Pakistan maintains that the treaty allows India to divert more of its own resources for military use.

As Pakistan sees India becoming a great power, "nuclear weapons become a very attractive psychological equalizer," said George Perkovich, vice president for studies and a non-proliferation specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The 1998 test date is a quasi-holiday in Pakistan, and the test site was once declared a national monument, part of the nuclear chest-thumping that, along with political instability, makes U.S. officials as nervous as the actual number of weapons.
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In December 2008, Peter Lavoie, the U.S. national intelligence officer for South Asia, told NATO officials that "despite pending economic catastrophe, Pakistan is producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country in the world," according to a classified State Department cable released late last year by the Internet site WikiLeaks.

Publication of the document so angered Pakistani army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani that he told journalists there that the "real aim of U.S. [war] strategy is to de-nuclearize Pakistan," according to local media reports.

In 2009, Congress passed a $7.5 billion aid package for Pakistan with the stipulation that the administration provide regular assessments of whether any of the money "directly or indirectly aided the expansion of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program."

While continuing to produce of weapons-grade uranium at two sites, Pakistan has sharply increased its production of plutonium, allowing it to make lighter warheads for more mobile delivery systems. Its newest missile, the Shaheen II, has a range of 1,500 miles and is about to go into operational deployment, Kristensen said. Pakistan also has developed nuclear-capable land- and air-launched cruise missiles.

deyoungk@washpost.com

[Ashutosh Malik]

Some questions and thoughts.

Do they even have enough material to make 100 bombs?

It is only now or sometime in the recent past, that they have, or are starting, to go the Plutonium weapon route - because of the issues with the Uranium enrichment route and its complexities. With respect to Uranium route, the enrichment requirement being what it is, have their centrifuges become super efficient to produce material for 100 odd bombs?

Did they even have enough material to do the so called 6 blasts in 1998? Or did they borrow some from China?

Best regards.

[Brando]

These numbers are again mere speculation on part of these "analysts". Since the last 10 years they have been saying India has 80-100 nuclear weapons and even today they say the same thing. Either India is not producing any new nuclear weapons or India has been very good at hiding them. If Stuxnet could cripple the Iranians, I don't see why the Paki facilities can't be crippled similarly if the USA is REALLY committed to stopping Pakistani nuclear weapon production.

[jimmy_moh]

Pakistan bridges technology gap with India

NEWDELHI: In 2009 when the first of the three Russian-Israeli spy planes arrived in New Delhi, it was viewed as the Indian Air Force’s big technological leap leaving adeversaries like Pakistan behind. Two years down the line, Pakistan has knocked much of this technology gap off with help from China by adding planes that can peep inside Indian border and thwart aerial strikes.


IAF bosses now admit that it was time to redraw its plans regarding acquistion of more Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems, popularly known as “eye in the sky” because of its capacity to scan wide areas to dissolve any aerial threats from missiles and combat jets.

The IAF has in its fleet three Israeli Phalcon systems, arguably one of the best of the AEW&C available anywhere in the world bought for a whopping $1.1 billion. Mounted on a modified Russian transporter IL-76, Phalcon is central to IAF’s plans to maintain air superiority by quickly and simultanesously searching, tracking and locking targets spread over a big area.

Pakistan has bridged this technological divide to a greater extent, said a senior officer about Pakistan Air Force inductions like Swedish Erieye System and much bigger China’s ZDK-03 which, like the Indian Phalcon, is mounted on Russian Il-76. The official said that Pakistan is looking to have atleast 10 of these aircraft which is too big a number for a small country.

It has led to an AEW&C race in the sub-continent with India getting ready for a repeat order of Phalcons. All eyes were also on Defence Research and Development Organisation’s (DRDO) own plans to develop an AEW&C at home which is going to be ready for trials soon. The Indian system would be mounted on Brazilian Embraer EMB-145 aircraft and the IAF hopes the DRDO will be able to deliver a good platform without much delays.

Ahead of the DRDO trials, Pakistan would induct first of four ZDK-03 AEW&C developed by China in a move that has generated some interest. Little is known about ZDK-03 which is said to be another product of Chinese reverse engineering, according to experts.

Pakistan already has three Erieye systems bought from the Swedish company SAAB as part of its “Project Horizon”. These are being operated by Chaklala-based 13th squadron.

Experts said the PAF’s sector operations centers were connected by Erieye Ground Interface Segment, as has been the case with other operators like Brazil, Greece and Mexcio that use Erieyes. Brazilian AEW expert Sergio Ricardo told the Express that India still has an edge because the Israeli system is much more advanced but others were catching up fast. The Phalcons were not sold to China by Israel under the US pressure.

http://expressbuzz.com/nation/pakistan- ... 43568.html

[D Roy]

This is a nonsensical report.

Since when is the ZDK-03 based on the A-50/Il-76, hain? and given the status of the Uzbek plant or even the new plant outside Moscow when exactly is Pakistan ever going to get these new Mainstays not to mention when China is actually going to integrate them?


The ZDK-03s are going to be based on Shaanxi Y-8Fs which are basically updated AN-12s. it remains to be seen whether they'll get the balance beam or the rotordrome.

yes they do seem to want to operate quite a few.,

[Aditya_V]

Pakistan has 110 N-weapons, edges ahead of India: US Report

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 396500.cms

I really hope this is not a case of our Netas sleeping and Psy-ops.

[Singha]

so the pakis have a grand total of 3 agosta90b and 2 x agosta now ...the agostas being 30 yrs old must be nearing retirement around 2015.
if all boats are seaworthy, they would like to guard karachi using the older boats and release the 3 x agosta90b for offensive raiding one would think....the desi media would be up in arms if anything bigger than a dugout canoe were sunk off kavaratti or kochi.

[D Roy]

The two remaining agosta 70s are shit. they would be just as useful as the foxtrots we recently retired i.e as dry land museum displays.

Although in a great moment of H& D PN is talking of upgrading them.