Lalmohan wrote:rajesh-ji, hat-tip is due
Sanku wrote:Yes Sir, a lot of thinking on how to change rather than just analyze.
PrasadZ wrote:mine topi too !
Klaus wrote:This also makes AFG a key stakeholder in its own future development. Also, if the Indian Army could raise an Afghan regiment (from your e-book
), we could see private Afghan security companies in charge of the defence batteries around the strategic refinery. Something like the Jamnagar refinery, built with international cooperation.
GoI would need to move fast on this idea, the ground conditions at the present are very favourable for the TAPI as we speak (courtesy the Japan quake 'n' tsunami and the expected blowback which is going to come from anti-nuclear lobbies across the world). India needs to move at this time when the world is still in a stupor.
Bhaiyon, thanks for your vote of confidence for the idea.
Expanding on the idea a bit:
Mission:
Integrate Northern Afghanistan, i.e. Non-Pushtun Afghanistan into Indian sphere of influence, almost as if it is an Indian post in Central Asia, or an Indian State
. Make non-Pushtun Afghanistan into the refining hub of Central Asia.
Why Afghanistan?
India needs to build up our presence - economic, political, cultural and military, in Northern Afghanitan for various reasons:
- To provide a means of committing Iran to providing India with a supply route to Afghanistan in exchange for gasoline from Afghanistan and influence in an America occupied Afghanistan.
- To provide America with a separate supply route serviced by India, making America independent and impervious to Pakistan's pressure tricks, thereby decreasing America's supply of weaponry to Pakistan which can be used against India.
- To tap into the energy resources of Central Asia
- To prevent all those energy resources from being diverted to China to feed only Chinese growth
- To build up non-Pushtun Afghanistan, to act as an alternate center of economic power and commercial activity for the Pushtuns viz-a-viz Pakistan, thereby pushing back Pakistan's influence from the whole of Pushtunistan, including parts of it, right now in Pakistan itself.
- To get a better handle on Pushtunistan, and Pushtun politics, and make it more antagonistic towards Pakistan, neutralizing Pakistan through a hammer and anvil strategy, with Pakistan stuck between an antagonistic Pushtunistan and the enemy India. To destabilize Pakistan from Afghanistan.
- To get a beachhead on Baluchistan, and manage Baluch struggle for Independence from Pakistan through Afghanistan.
- To have a different route into Gilgti-Baltistan other than LoC. Build up pressure on the Karakoram Passage from both sides - from Afghanistan and from India.
Stabilization of the Area
During most of Afghanistan's history it has been in a constant tug of war between various regional and global powers. Non-Pushtun areas of Afghanistan are for the time being living through an unexpected period of stability. If the area has to be kept stable, USA, which is not seen as hostile by most of the non-Pushtun Afghans, should stay put in non-Pushtun areas of Afghanistan as a stabilization force. Furthermore, American presence in Afghanistan, has also meant a steady flow of Western money into Afghanistan. This too helps, and stabilizes the economy. Thirdly coalition presence is a very important market for local services.
Second leg of stability in Northern non-Pushtun Afghanistan would be Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police under the control of a central government.
Third leg of stability for Northern non-Pushtun Afghanistan can be the Afghan Regiment, a regiment raised by the Indian Army, fully integrated into the Indian Army, whose members would be Afghans recruited from all over Afghanistan. They get their training in India, but they return to Afghanistan to work for the Indian Army, something on the lines of British Indian Army. India is not to be an occupying force in Afghanistan, but the Afghan Regiment can be active as part of the coalition forces but under Indian command. Thanks to Klaus for reminding me, of this angle.
Perhaps a major contribution to stability of Afghanistan would come if there is a bifurcation of the country as per Blackwill Plan, with the Pushtun areas of Afghanistan integrating politically with the Pushtun areas of Pakistan to form a Pushtunistan, which then can form a sort of confederation with (Northern non-Pushtun) Afghanistan. This arrangement contains the extent of Taliban expansion to the Pushtun areas themselves, allowing the rest of Afghanistan to develop.
India and Geopolitics of Afghanistan
We often think, that it is Pakistan that has cut us off from Central Asia. That is correct! But it is not the whole truth. Northern non-Pushtun Afghanistan and Tajikistan are the backyards of Iran. The Tajiks speak so to speak a Persian dialect. The one major difference between Tajiks and Iranians is the sect. Iranians are mostly Shi'a while Tajiks are mostly Sunni. So the Iranians would automatically have a very major influence in the region.
Now why would Iran like to share the region with India. In the 90s it served their interests to have Russia and India on board supporting the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. But now that Northern Afghanistan is relatively strong and stable, why should the Iranians allow Indians in?
One reason is because right now, the place is full of American and coalition troops, and Western money is propping up Afghanistan's economy, so that has pushed back Iranian influence. So while coalition troops are in Afghanistan, India has a leg-up on Iran there, because our presence is welcome by the coalition troops, but Iran's overt presence would be a red herring. Under the circumstances, Iran doesn't mind India being in Afghanistan because our presence there counteracts Pakistan's involvement in Afghanistan, at a time when they can't show too much presence there to do the same.
So as long as America is there in Afghanistan, Iran would allow India to also remain active in the region as a counter to Pakistan. Once America leaves, Iranians would move in in to non-Pushtun Afghanistan provided they have the muscle to keep Taliban at bay, and keep India out!
We are fighting in Afghanistan, not just against Pakistan but we are also up against Iran, not to speak of the Chinese, Russians, Saudis and the Turks.
But as long as USA gets some cooperation from Pakistan, Iran cannot really push America out of Afghanistan, which just proves that the Tango that India needs to do is with the whole gamut of players - a tango where we may need Pakistan to blunt Iranian influence in the region enough that they allow us in in order to stop American dependence on Pakistan. In fact we may even need a little bit of Saudi help to keep Afghanistan and Tajikistan in the anti-Shia non-Iranian bloc. Also the whole machine will work only if Western money keeps various mouths watery and enticed!
So America should stay in Afghanistan as long as India does not have a route to Afghanistan either through PoK+Chitral+Badakhshan or through Baluchistan.
Turkmen troops, who are part of the coalition in Afghanistan could do that! If not available ANA troops can do it. If not available Indian Army's Afghan Regiment (still non-existent) can do it. If not possible, private security companies could do it!