Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Mar. 29, 2011

[Gagan]

An interesting aspect of how Pakistan changes loyalties with change in the fortunes of its 3.5 boyfriends.

Jinnah, Liyaqat etc promised the british everything between heaven and earth if the british would allow Pakistan's creation and establish them as the leaders. Unfortunately WW2 and the Independence of India, demoted the British from a Super power to a little more than a regional power with global presence, and with an economy in shambles. The fact that much of Europe was salvaged by the Marshal plan by the Americans did not escape the Pakistanis.

So in a few years loyalties in Pindi changed from London to Washington.

Come the 90s era and Pakistan got dropped like a hot potato by the americans coupled with the rise of the Chinese, the Pakistanis are in the middle of shifting their loyalties to the Chinese. They are currently playing the US against the Chinese to try and derive concessions from both citing what the other did for them.

KSA was the traditional spiritual master all these decades with the Pakistanis openly trying to emulate the Arabs, going to the extent of trying to learn Arabic, dressing like them, even adopting their version of Islam. Now it seems that ever since the Pakistanis came to possess nuclear weapons, gifted to them by their Chinese friends, they feel that they are superior to the Saudis. Because now they actually have something that the saudis are impressed by. Also some intelligent bird in Pindi has assessed that the growth prospects of KSA are limited from this point forward, when compared to a power like Turkey, which is a NATO member, is technologically highly advanced by muslim country standards, and might even possibly join the EU.

So we see a situation where the Pakistanis are making efforts to balance KSA and Turkey.

So Pakistan today, headed by Gen Kiyani is in the middle of a shifting of loyalties, preparing to discard the old and running-out-of-steam powers to future superpowers. They may be playing both sides of the coin now, but the way they have run the Af-Pak war clearly tells us that they are hedging their bets.

[anupmisra]

Three JSMM leaders shot dead in Sanghar dist

Are these three the same as the three nationalists that were burnt alive in their car a few days ago?

[anupmisra]

It is possible that China might want to use this unique service provided by Pakistan to 'soften up' a region, before China makes a plunge in a big way.

My personal opinion (only a theory at this stage) is that, No, China is not that dumb when it comes to using islamic terrorists for its own strategic good. They too have their own "Muslim" problem. Once that genie (LeT) is out of the bottle, it will be hard to pull the plug and rein it in. What they may do is to ask the pakis to use that jihadist genie for furthering Chinese plans in Central Asia, then watch the principal actors maul each other to oblivion from the side lines, and then step in to pick up the pieces (gaining access to the Arabian sea, Cashmere, Central Asia, and a placid pakjabi countryside devoid of any meaningful jihadists).

[Brad Goodman]

4 killed in suicide attack in NW Pakistan

A suicide bomber attacked a convoy of Pakistani security forces in Bajaur tribal region Saturday evening, killing four people and injuring several security personnel, local media reported.

Express TV reported that the bomber exploded his explosive- laden vehicle near the convoy in Salarzai area of Bajaur, bordering Afghanistan.

Pro-government volunteers were also traveling in the convoy when it came under attack.

No group claimed responsibility, but Taliban militants regularly attack security forces in the tribal region.

[Brad Goodman]

North Korea Helps Pakistan Get It Right

Pakistan recently successfully tested a new, short range, ballistic missile. The Hatf 9 is the latest model in the Hatf line of nuclear armed missiles. With a range of only 60 kilometers, Hatf 9 is small enough for two to be mounted on one vehicle. It's trajectory is flatter than most ballistic missiles, making it more difficult for anti-missile systems to hit. The apparent size and range of the Hatf 9 is similar to the Russian OTR-21 (SS-21). Introduced in the late 1970s, this two ton, 650mm diameter, 6.4 meter (21 foot) long SS-21 had a range of 70 kilometers and a half ton warhead (large enough for existing Pakistani nuclear warheads). North Korea, a regular supplier of missile technology to Pakistan, had built its own version of the SS-21, and could have provided the needed technical assistance to Pakistan.

Pakistan has a full range of solid fuel rockets. In addition to the Hatf 9, there is the 1.5 ton Hatf 1, which appeared in 1989, has a range of 80 kilometers and a half ton warhead. The Hatf 1 apparently never entered service, due to reliability problems. Thus the Hatf 9 is basically the Hatf 1 done right.

Also showing up in 1989, the 2.5 ton Hatf 2 has a range of 180 kilometers, and also carries a half ton warhead. Then there is the four ton Ghaznavi (Hatf 3), which was first tested four years ago, and appears to be based on the Chinese DF-11. This missile has a range of some 300 kilometers and also carries a half ton warhead. The Shaheen 1 (Hatf 4), which weighs 9.5 tons, and carries a one ton warhead, has a maximum range of 700 kilometers. The Shaheen 1 entered service in 2003, and is apparently a variant of the Chinese DF-9 missile. Pakistan is believed to have received the solid fuel DF-9 in the 1990s, and has modified it somewhat. Pakistan began producing the Hatf 4 in the late 1990s, although it was not tested until 1999. The design appears to be well thought out, for the Hatf 4 has had several successful tests. It's not known if Pakistan has a nuclear warhead of equal reliability. Such warheads are difficult to design, manufacture and test. China has long been selling military technology to Pakistan, but it appears that nuclear warhead technology has not been offered.

The largest Pakistani ballistic missile is the Shaheen 2, which is believed to be an upgraded Pakistani version of the Chinese M-18, which was originally shown at the 1987 Beijing air show as a two-stage missile with a 1,000 km range and carrying a 900-1100 pound payload. This M-18 missile has the longest range of any of the current M/DF-series missiles. The mobile, two-stage missile is said to be able to carry a one ton payload. There have been over half a dozen successful test launches of the Shaheen 2 in the last six years. The missiles now have a range of 2,000 kilometers, which puts Bombay, New Delhi, Lucknow, and Jaipur, as well as all military targets in northern India, within range. Satellite photos of a Pakistani factory 30 kilometers southwest of the capital show transporter erector launchers (TELs) being assembled for the Shaheen 2 ballistic missile. It appears that several dozen of the fifty foot long, six axle vehicles have been built there in the last four years.

[Pranav]

There are several issues.

The first is to stop being a soft state in which any infiltrator can buy a ration card and become a citizen and vote, in which Maoists and EJs run unchecked. We are woefully unprepared militarily - artillery, submarines, PGMs, strategic deterrent etc, etc. All of that makes India a tempting target for destabilization and break-up. If you habitually leave your house unlocked, you can't be surprised if thieves want to burgle it.

The second is handling the sponsors - being in India's good books has to be more important to any third country than whatever benefit they can hope to get out of the Paks. Need carrots and sticks. For that both economic and military clout is needed. Also, it will not do to align with one sponsor against another, since that will drive the Paks into the opposite camp. India has to be important to all sponsors simultaneously.

The third issue is that the ideological foundations of the Paks have to lose credibility, completely. Fourth factor is India's relations various factions within Pak. Also very important are intelligence capabilities, and the shaping of public perceptions.

[Chandragupta]

He'll keep his word for a few years (as they are in a very precarious situation). In fact we should use this situation to rein in ISI ops in east asia.

Kayani will be back with a big BANG in a few years (he needs to do it for his own survival). Let this pass over. Sad fact is I am not sure our so called "analysts" even understand the geopolitical situation.

All this reminds me of Saddam in the 80s when he wanted war with the Iran. Iran was internally divided and fighting each other. Saddam thought this was a great time to push his weight and take on Iran and go all the way to Tehran and "grab the ayatollah by the beard in Tehran".

King Fahd told Saddam - Don't do it, why do you want to unite a country that is fighting itself and looking like it will implode? King Fahd pleaded with Saddam - he said for God's sake keep it to a small border confrontation. Fahd told him when you want to disengage you'll have to get the other side to agree. Saddam didn't listen.

3 years into the war, Saddam said I wish I listened to you to King Fahd. Saddam was desparate to get out. All the gains were slowly reversed by Tehran and they begun to enter into Iraqi territory.

So what I am trying to say is, its easy for us to be jingoistic and say lets punish pak, lets split it and take over Pak etc etc. But you have to think of the consequences of what you are doing. Pak will nuke us (with unkil support) - thats why ABV ordered IA not to cross LoC during Kargil. Lets say you take over Pak, do you want to "control" it? They'll do some guerilla warfare Iraq style etc etc. Long story short, we are not interested in a serious conflaguration and having to face PRC.

This is GoI strategists view. GoI have gained their lessons from Cold War era. This policy is not something new, its been the same policy for a long time.

Zimple... We'll do it when the time is right. First and foremost our priority is to our economy - social expenditure.

The ISI wants war and has been trying again and again. They are getting frustrated with us not hitting back. I think the US wanted us to get stuck in an Iraq style situation in Pak. US/NATO have ZERO will power to have casualties in Afghanistan/Pak.

US is doing the dirtywork for us and will punish Pak soon. Don't you worry. No point in uniting Pak, let them kill each other.

Shyamd saar, let me get this straight, you actually trust Kayani to keep quite for the next few years? Not to mention that you believe we can actually reign in ISI operations in east asia when we could do jackshit about our own people & embassy getting blown away in our backyard in Afghanistan. What happens when domestic compulsion create a pressure cooker situation in Pakistan & Kayani has to release the pressure? What does he do then? India, like always, is the pressure release valve.

Your point about a limited war with India being good for Pakis is spot on and has been common sense on BR for the past many years. I do not want a 'limited' war, so yes if the plan is to send in our MKIs to blow some tents out of the ground and blow a few of their F-7s or Mirage junk out of the sky, then sure it is a stupid idea. Nobody here is talking of waging a war on Pakistan and it is not because of the fear of their nukes. Your statement on how Pakis would nuke us actually shows us how a learned guru like yourself cannot see through their bluff. But that is not the point here.

It is useless to wait for Indian economy to reach X trillion dollars before we start getting proactive. I do not think economics plays a big role in our situation, if it were so then the last decade would have gone a lot different. I repeat the same question that I asked you in my previous post, what happens when India has 10x per capita GDP to that of Pakis and Indians have more to lose than Pakis. The difference is only going to increase to a point when it becomes a case of 'death by police' sort of thing for Pakis. Hurl some nukes over to the Kafirs, kill a few hundred thousand of them and in return we achieve radiating salvation. The Pakistan elite too when it sees no future in Pakistan with mango abduls scaling their high walls in Clifton & Defence Avenues to grab their women/wealth/jewelery will see a Nuclear free for all with India as a one stone-two bird case, it satisfies their desire to kill as many Kafirs as possible and it solves their mango abdul problem as well who will be vaporised anyways.

If you want to believe that the US is doing the dirtywork for India be my guest. But if we were to create a graph of American actions & their effect on India, you won't be drawing anything above the X-axis. Why would we want to forget all the lessons that we have learned about the Americans? You believe that US is paying in blood & dollars to do dirtywork for India and want others to take this statement at its face value?! No free lunches and all.

The least GoI should be doing is to have a potent covert force ready for action inside Pakistan bumping off heads & imposing a cost on Pakis with plausible deniability if you're afraid that the Pakis will find out & piss will be disturbed. I agree that there is no point waging a war when they are themselves finishing each other off but so much can be done to help them in the process and guide them to kill the right people at the right time. Nothing that requires a 100 trillion economy.

[shiv]

From Anatol Lieven
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... r?page=0,1

1) Britain incubates a mass of anti India Pakis

1 ) I'm not sure how to infer that conclusion from Anatol's article. Yes, a lot of radicalized muslims,esp Pakis who obviously hate India,Israel and the west (Britain included) live in Britain. But i'm not sure if i would say Britain (as in the British Govt) is an incubator of radicals against India. These hate mongering Pakis are everywhere in Europe, from Rome to Hamburgh,so Britain is hardly an exception.

That is what Lieven says

LeT is regarded by many Western counterterrorism experts as the most effective terrorist group in South Asia and even beyond. Its potential for international terrorism is greatly increased by the fact that much of the Pakistani diaspora in Britain comes from Pakistani Kashmir and -- judging from my interviews -- has deep sympathy with the anti-Indian jihadists.

[Pranav]

The least GoI should be doing is to have a potent covert force ready for action inside Pakistan bumping off heads & imposing a cost on Pakis with plausible deniability if you're afraid that the Pakis will find out & piss will be disturbed. I agree that there is no point waging a war when they are themselves finishing each other off but so much can be done to help them in the process and guide them to kill the right people at the right time. Nothing that requires a 100 trillion economy.

OK, but bear in mind that India is going to get blamed for everything, even droughts and floods.

[Dipanker]

The least GoI should be doing is to have a potent covert force ready for action inside Pakistan bumping off heads & imposing a cost on Pakis with plausible deniability if you're afraid that the Pakis will find out & piss will be disturbed. I agree that there is no point waging a war when they are themselves finishing each other off but so much can be done to help them in the process and guide them to kill the right people at the right time. Nothing that requires a 100 trillion economy.

OK, but bear in mind that India is going to get blamed for everything, even droughts and floods.

That they are doing it already.

[Chandragupta]

The least GoI should be doing is to have a potent covert force ready for action inside Pakistan bumping off heads & imposing a cost on Pakis with plausible deniability if you're afraid that the Pakis will find out & piss will be disturbed. I agree that there is no point waging a war when they are themselves finishing each other off but so much can be done to help them in the process and guide them to kill the right people at the right time. Nothing that requires a 100 trillion economy.

OK, but bear in mind that India is going to get blamed for everything, even droughts and floods.

Better to get blamed deservedly than to get blamed even though we warm our sofas watching our people get killed. If I am going to be hanged anyways, it's always better to finish off a few enemies first, isn't it?

[menon s]

Chandragupta wrote,

OK, but bear in mind that India is going to get blamed for everything, even droughts and floods.

Of course we Indians are sticking to the letter of IWT, but then there is not enough water anymore in the system, as it was there when the treaty was signed, because of climate change. Thats a reality today.

[Chandragupta]

Chandragupta wrote,

OK, but bear in mind that India is going to get blamed for everything, even droughts and floods.

Of course we Indians are sticking to the letter of IWT, but then there is not enough water anymore in the system, as it was there when the treaty was signed, because of climate change. Thats a reality today.

That would be Pranav.

[Dipanker]

Chandragupta wrote,

OK, but bear in mind that India is going to get blamed for everything, even droughts and floods.

Of course we Indians are sticking to the letter of IWT, but then there is not enough water anymore in the system, as it was there when the treaty was signed, because of climate change. Thats a reality today.

The fact that the Pakis have multiplied like rabbits hasn't helped either. The decrease in per capita availability of water is directly proportional to increase in population. A five fold increase in population has led to a five fold decrease in per capita availability of water.

In this case Pakis have truely fuc.ked themselves.

[Mahendra]

The point is any man made treaty cannot supersede the fact that Allah created Pakus river solely for the use of the Pakistanese. The fact of the matter is that the cunning Banias are not only using water not meant for them, they are also releasing 100000 litres of pee-shaab and forgot how many tonnes of excrement downstream. The Yindoos are moving towards a 10 trillion dollah economy while the Pakistanese are staring down the barrel in disease and squalour. This is totally unjust and unfair and it is totally understandable why the Pakistanese want to attack the nearest Taj.

[jrjrao]

x-post:




US Institue of Peace

at Amazon.com

Folks, just a heads-up that this book, which was released last month, is quite a good read. Shiv and other resident Piskology gurus have been saying the same things over the years in this forum, but it is still nice to see it all written up by a DC heavyweight couple, and published by a leading think-tank.

I don't think the Pakis will like this book at all. It is unceasing in its dissection of the India-obsession of the Pakis, and how this makes the Pakis negotiate in the uniquely Paki way with the US.

Woodward's earlier book -- "Obama's Wars" -- had said this: "The term "liars" is frequently deployed by American officials to describe Pakistani negotiators...". This new book expands on this quite a bit.

At 197 pages, this is a slim book and makes for a fast read. It was easily worth the 10 bucks I paid for it at Amazon.com.

[CRamS]

US is doing the dirtywork for us and will punish Pak soon. Don't you worry. No point in uniting Pak, let them kill each other.

Man, you are kidding us or what? Let me as succinctly as I can summarize the fraud US has inflicted on India since 9/11 through its criminal sophistry

1) Soon after 9/11, India offered full cooperation, as a strategic ally should, a win win situation in which US brings its massive fire power and diplomatic clout, and India offers logistical support -- to deal with the terrorist menace once & for all.

2) US said kiss my ass to India's offer (even as its other white lackeys from UK onward to every pipsqueak in Europe joined to form an “international coalition to fight terrorism”). Pentagon/CIA and other strategists, brilliant, forward looking visionaries that they are with a criminal/fascist bent of mind decided that taking TSP albatross around India's neck, and having to deal with India as the sole regional power and beyond is not in US interests. So they concocted this GWOT nonsense in which the chief terrorist was co-opted.

3) TSP sensed the opportunity, changed colors like chameleon, and joined GWOT with the only condition that their strategic posture visa vi India --- terror as an instrument of state policy & nuke blackmail ---- is left untouched. US acquiesced in a heart beat like Katie baby would on her wedding night to William's advances.

4) While Indians and Indian Americans like me were aghast and shocked and watched in disbelief that TSP managed to wriggle out so skillfully from a tight corner, nevertheless, we all felt that the sheer pressure of TSP having to take on its own jihadi choir boys would be some consolation for India, in that TSP would be weakened to some extent.

5) TSP weakening was only a mirage to us SDREs. One the contrary, they became brazen: J&K legislature attack, parliament attack, Kaluchack massacre, making obscene demand from India etc. And throughout this, US was either supportive of TSP or equal equal at best, casting the rapist at the same equivalence as the victim.

5) Then the war criminals Bush & Co (living kushily in retirement now instead of rotting in dungeon in the Hague) decided to gang rape Iraq in broad daylight, ignoring the real terrorists: TSPA/ISI. This gave ample time to TSP to further build up their strength with all the goodies US threw at them: billions & counting.

6) Then came Obama with his Brizensky type foreign policy team that included late Holbrooke. This was the biggest prize for TSP. Now, not only have their crimes whitewashed as Bush did, but Obama said we need to bring Kashmir into the AfPak mix, and castrate India's role in Afghanistan. Just think about the what TSP has achieved.

7) Indian ship sinks even further under Obama, with his loyalist MMS. From plausible deniability to equal equal, now TSP terror is openly acknowledged, most recently 26/11, but still India is asked to make concessions to TSP. Read the Riedel clap trap and meditate over the fraud being inflicted on India lest your BP goes up. MMS is a willing collaborator in this sell out of India

So where we are today, is US not doing any dirty work for India. Rather, US is impressing upon India that you are too big and too strong and too resourceful to the comfort of TSP, and so do something about it to please TSP because that’s in our empire's interests. And you call US an allie of India. Give me a f%^&*ing break.

[menon s]

LEON URIS in the book THE HAJ.
read that as a teenager, found this book inside an old carton box, today. The date and place i bought is on it , Luz Corner, Chennai, 28/11/1998! A second hand book since i never buy fiction first hand!

it reads and i quote,

Before i was 9 i had learnt the basic cannon of Arab life.

" It was me against my brother,
It was me and my brother against my father,
It was my family against my cousins and the clan
The Clan against the tribe,
The tribe against the world,
and all of us against the infidel"

May be this is what Wahabism does to people. A thoughtful phrase that we need to commit to memory as we deal with a new Pakistan!

[svinayak]

4) While Indians and Indian Americans like me were aghast and shocked and watched in disbelief that TSP managed to wriggle out so skillfully from a tight corner, nevertheless, we all felt that the sheer pressure of TSP having to take on its own jihadi choir boys would be some consolation for India, in that TSP would be weakened to some extent.

Many assumed that US and Pakistan are two different countries who are opposed to each other. Wrong mistake.
TSP was helped by US to wriggle out of the image problem and have a normal image.

[CRamS]

jrjrao:

Come on, I don't think its just a question of negotiation. I think it is US that must change its goals and objectives. So long as it previals in its India containment policy, TSP will only be too happy to exploit. A common example. A woman in a skimpy attire going into a bar full of drinken louts, is right to complain that the louts made unwanted passes on her and harassed her, but if the woman continues to frequent the bar, and each time with one less piece of clothing, do her complaints hold any water? So its is US who has to change its objectives and state them clearly to TSP. For a start, tieing US aid to TSP taking on pigLeTs would be a good start. But if US itself links Paki pigLeTs to India's "human rights abuses" in Kashmir, why would TSP not exploit that sentiment to its advantage.

[shyamd]

Shyamd saar, let me get this straight, you actually trust Kayani to keep quite for the next few years? Not to mention that you believe we can actually reign in ISI operations in east asia when we could do jackshit about our own people & embassy getting blown away in our backyard in Afghanistan. What happens when domestic compulsion create a pressure cooker situation in Pakistan & Kayani has to release the pressure? What does he do then? India, like always, is the pressure release valve.

Birather. Which is why I said specifically "couple of years". Anyway, sounds like you have not read the scenario that I posted on this thread. Please do so. Then you'll know what I mean.

Your point about a limited war with India being good for Pakis is spot on and has been common sense on BR for the past many years. I do not want a 'limited' war, so yes if the plan is to send in our MKIs to blow some tents out of the ground and blow a few of their F-7s or Mirage junk out of the sky, then sure it is a stupid idea. Nobody here is talking of waging a war on Pakistan and it is not because of the fear of their nukes. Your statement on how Pakis would nuke us actually shows us how a learned guru like yourself cannot see through their bluff. But that is not the point here.

Its a game of psychology. The "will they" is enough deterence. Its all deterence. Whether they will or not is a different story. But think politically, politicians have to answer to the people if x million people die. On a political level they are not ready for such big risks. Sure its easy for you and me to say. Another thing is lets say it did turn into a nuke war, Pak nuke us, we nuke them. There is nothing to say a submarine of one of its friend nukes us and we are not sure who did it. Who are you going to fire at PRC? US? UK? Or even the nations that have nukes but havent declared it? Life isn't black or white boss. You need to go back and read through the whole Kargil gameplan that Unkil, Chini and TSP had in store for us.

If you want to believe that the US is doing the dirtywork for India be my guest.

Facts are stubborn things unfortunately.

The least GoI should be doing is to have a potent covert force ready for action inside Pakistan bumping off heads & imposing a cost on Pakis with plausible deniability if you're afraid that the Pakis will find out & piss will be disturbed. I agree that there is no point waging a war when they are themselves finishing each other off but so much can be done to help them in the process and guide them to kill the right people at the right time. Nothing that requires a 100 trillion economy.

To be frank, this is something I had said post 26/11 and it is something that needs to be kept ready. But I think the strategists feel we don't need to do anything. You know they hit K section and most of the officers were taken out? Then Peshawar and others. Some others are doing our work. Chill out and grow the economy.

[shyamd]

Man, you are kidding us or what? Let me as succinctly as I can summarize the fraud US has inflicted on India since 9/11 through its criminal sophistry

1) Soon after 9/11, India offered full cooperation, as a strategic ally should, a win win situation in which US brings its massive fire power and diplomatic clout, and India offers logistical support -- to deal with the terrorist menace once & for all.

2) US said kiss my ass to India's offer (even as its other white lackeys from UK onward to every pipsqueak in Europe joined to form an “international coalition to fight terrorism”). Pentagon/CIA and other strategists, brilliant, forward looking visionaries that they are with a criminal/fascist bent of mind decided that taking TSP albatross around India's neck, and having to deal with India as the sole regional power and beyond is not in US interests. So they concocted this GWOT nonsense in which the chief terrorist was co-opted.

3) TSP sensed the opportunity, changed colors like chameleon, and joined GWOT with the only condition that their strategic posture visa vi India --- terror as an instrument of state policy & nuke blackmail ---- is left untouched. US acquiesced in a heart beat like Katie baby would on her wedding night to William's advances.

4) While Indians and Indian Americans like me were aghast and shocked and watched in disbelief that TSP managed to wriggle out so skillfully from a tight corner, nevertheless, we all felt that the sheer pressure of TSP having to take on its own jihadi choir boys would be some consolation for India, in that TSP would be weakened to some extent.

5) TSP weakening was only a mirage to us SDREs. One the contrary, they became brazen: J&K legislature attack, parliament attack, Kaluchack massacre, making obscene demand from India etc. And throughout this, US was either supportive of TSP or equal equal at best, casting the rapist at the same equivalence as the victim.

5) Then the war criminals Bush & Co (living kushily in retirement now instead of rotting in dungeon in the Hague) decided to gang rape Iraq in broad daylight, ignoring the real terrorists: TSPA/ISI. This gave ample time to TSP to further build up their strength with all the goodies US threw at them: billions & counting.

6) Then came Obama with his Brizensky type foreign policy team that included late Holbrooke. This was the biggest prize for TSP. Now, not only have their crimes whitewashed as Bush did, but Obama said we need to bring Kashmir into the AfPak mix, and castrate India's role in Afghanistan. Just think about the what TSP has achieved.

7) Indian ship sinks even further under Obama, with his loyalist MMS. From plausible deniability to equal equal, now TSP terror is openly acknowledged, most recently 26/11, but still India is asked to make concessions to TSP. Read the Riedel clap trap and meditate over the fraud being inflicted on India lest your BP goes up. MMS is a willing collaborator in this sell out of India

So where we are today, is US not doing any dirty work for India. Rather, US is impressing upon India that you are too big and too strong and too resourceful to the comfort of TSP, and so do something about it to please TSP because that’s in our empire's interests. And you call US an allie of India. Give me a f%^&*ing break.

Despite you sugesting that we have a bad memory and yet we still continue our strong relations with US. There must be something to it isn't it? Media only releases 30% of the story, that too with all its spin. The guys in Dilli aint stupid but they are a bit slow.

[Chandragupta]

You need to go back and read through the whole Kargil gameplan that Unkil, Chini and TSP had in store for us.

Will be happy to read if you could direct me.

I still do not agree with you about leaving the initiative to US and adopting the policy of 'inaction is the best action', guess we'll have to agree to disagree on that. By the way, the matter of fact confidence with which you state your opinion better be because may be you're in the know of things, otherwise it is just misplaced optimism.

Cheers

[shyamd]

Will be happy to read if you could direct me.

I still do not agree with you about leaving the initiative to US and adopting the policy of 'inaction is the best action', guess we'll have to agree to disagree on that. By the way, the matter of fact confidence with which you state your opinion better be because may be you're in the know of things, otherwise it is just misplaced optimism.

Cheers

See Here. Link

The numerous posts in West Asia thread. Follow the West Asia thread. The answers are there too.

The confidence is based on fact and research.

[Manny]

Mods,

Please remove this if you think its not appropriate here. I think it is with some humor.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxBAy390 ... re=related

I saw this video of a little bully who decided to throw punches way above his weight ...and then....

It totally reminds of of Pakistan and India. Except India has been taking it...when would it give it back? I know we broke their knee the first time...but we need to break the other knee as well.

[Prem]

There was a cartoon few years back depicting quiet India and thumbing Poaks sitting across the table. In the begining , Poakland was shown having bandage on head in 47, then depiction was of Poak with broken arm in 65, then both arms and legs covered with plaster in 71 and then whole body covered in plaster in 98. In the end ,old Indian man( looking like ABV) in dhoti sitting across Poak, open his mouth and say '"What did u say ? u want to talk".
The cartoon was woth million words . Bet one of BRfites have it on his c drive.

[JE Menon]

Awesome one Manny, thanks for posting... OT I guess, but glad you posted it.

[shiv]

it reads and i quote,

Before i was 9 i had learnt the basic cannon of Arab life.

" It was me against my brother,
It was me and my brother against my father,
It was my family against my cousins and the clan
The Clan against the tribe,
The tribe against the world,
and all of us against the infidel"

May be this is what Wahabism does to people. A thoughtful phrase that we need to commit to memory as we deal with a new Pakistan!

This in fact is something like what Raphael Patai (who wrote about the Arab psyche) described it as. I have tried in vain to see if there is something in the Quran to make people this way - but there is nothing that I know of. Clearly it is a vicarious absorption of Arab culture - in fact pre-Islamic Arab culture that causes this behavior. But for Pakis there is nothing called "pre-islamic".

[Pranav]

You need to go back and read through the whole Kargil gameplan that Unkil, Chini and TSP had in store for us.

Also 26/11. The fake call from Pranab to Zardari is significant. I am not sure that Omar Sheikh could have had the imagination, or the impersonation skill, or the capability for caller-id spoofing from within jail. In any case, there are allegations (I think in Musharraf's book) that he is an MI6 asset.

[symontk]

[quote="shiv] This in fact is something like what Raphael Patai (who wrote about the Arab psyche) described it as. I have tried in vain to see if there is something in the Quran to make people this way - but there is nothing that I know of. Clearly it is a vicarious absorption of Arab culture - in fact pre-Islamic Arab culture that causes this behavior. But for Pakis there is nothing called "pre-islamic".[/quote]

Actually yes, its the purity / better class question. This thought arises when man tries to find out who is more purer / better class. But if you leave that to God then there is no problem

[shiv]

Actually yes, its the purity / better class question. This thought arises when man tries to find out who is more purer / better class. But if you leave that to God then there is no problem

I think "me against my brother" and "you and me against our cousin" etc derived from a harsh desert existence and a fight for scarce resources. So did hijab for that matter. Ye olde Arab life was to camp out and the men would have to decamp for days - and the women in the camp going beyond yon dune for their daily needs would have been ripe for picking by rival males. Hence the code of cover up and go with relative or other wimmens.

The coming of Islam probably cut down some elements of conflict and made everyone a birather but it was not thought necessary to remove aspects of culture that were not causing a problem in those days. Pakistanis of course have been too stupid to understand or more likely they have been rotten bustards because they have a RAPE class that does not follow these rules and an Abdul class that has to follow these rules. RAPE class has cheered and egged on Abdul class as long as Abduls were killing Hindus, Sikhs, Ahmedis and Shias. Now Abduls are targeting RAPE and there is oh so much taqleef.

Naturally "All of us against infidels" was fine as long as there are enough infidels - but once that stops its back top You versus me. Me versus my birather.

[SSridhar]

Fake currency found in train from Pakistan

It was concealed in a specially created cavity near a wheel of the train and was seized during the routine search.

[arun]

Three JSMM leaders shot dead in Sanghar dist

Are these three the same as the three nationalists that were burnt alive in their car a few days ago?

I believe they are the same lot and cremating them in their car was one more act designed to intimidate. As you would know in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan the Pure are most fearful at the thought of being administered a Hindu-like death ceremony such as a cremation.

[abhishek_sharma]

...

It is old "chankian" foreign policy. Don't worry too much about it.

[shiv]

Some thoughts after reading recently posted material including the Lieven article, and the Riedel transcript.

If we leave out any reference to what the US may be doing for or against India and stick to what the US appears to be doing and assume the US is doing something in its own interest I get the feeling that the Pakistani army is being put under considerable pressure to crack down on the LeT and the Haqqani network.

If the earlier attitude of the US was "We don't care what you do with anti-India groups", the new attitude seems to be "We don't care what you do with anti-India groups so long as they don't attack us". In other words there is an acknowledgement that the so call anti-India groups which Pakistan has been encouraged to keep intact (or at least not discouraged) offer the Pakistanis an opportunity to conceal some anti-US/anti-west elements.

In other words - the change in the US tone is one that has moved from "We trust you to work with us" to one of "We put the onus on you to ensure that no rebel elements in your anti-India groups attack us". That means that the Pakistani army now has to work to ensure that groups stay anti-India focused and not anti west.

This really harks back to a very old discussion on BR. In the past it was quite easy for the Pakistani army to have separate anti-India focused groups who were busy with India while they maintained "other groups" for other purposes. After 9-11 the US put pressure on Pakistan to rein in the "other groups" and this led to a gradual "leak" of cadres from "other groups" into th sheltered, charmed, protected anti-India groups like the L-e-T. This too was noticed long ago - maybe 5-6 years ago by me and others on BRF. The clincher was in "Al Qaeda" tapes that moved from being purely anti-West to including references to Cashmere and India. The US either did not notice or did not care. Probably the latter.

26/11 really did mark a watershed, not just in Indian attitudes but the attack on Jews and westerners. But it was Headley's arrest that indicated that the US had been sitting on and ignoring anti-India activities assuming that all iz vel allowing 26/11 to be planned. 26/11 per se was no skin off US balls - "tut tut tut, we sympathize with you" would have been enough except that Headly showed that L-e-T and Paki army were all hand in hand in planning attacks on the West. That was when the US came down hard on the Paki army to control the L-e-T. (The Raymond Davis episode is merely an extension of that.) If this has benefited India it s merely a happy coincidence. The US cannot be accused of putting Indian interests foremost.

Like I said, the US is putting pressure on the Pakistan army to rein in the L-e-T. It is probably still OK to keep anti-India groups, but not anti-US groups. But I think the Pakistan army is actually finding it difficult to keep an anti-India focus among its non state allies. By the Paki army applying pressure on its non state allies - all terrorism has reduced in India. There has been a marked decline in successful terrorist events in India after 26/11.

Let me digress for a bit and look at this decline in the rate (per unit quarter) of terrorist attacks in India after 26/11. The general opinion on BRF is that India has done nothing to cause this. It is equally clear that Pakistan too would have nointention of doing this. Then why on earth has there been a reduction in the number of attacks? The only answer would be US pressure leading to the Paki army telling its own whoring Islamic terror cells to keep their heads down and a probable inability of the Paki army in encouraging anti-India attacks alone without any anti-US attacks.

If people are willing to believe that India has any role here and that India is not totally supine and/or playing dead here, I would say that it is in the field of intelligence sharing. India has given the US plenty of intel about the activities of Islamic terror groups in Pakistan. It is the US that has been selective in protecting its whore's anti-India activities. Intelligence sharing, where the US actually looks at Indian Intel and provides Intel to India has probably playeed a role in the reduction of terror attacks.

I have a personal view on some things here and it is something that I have stated before. The Paki army is using groups that are ideologically motivated by Islam to do their dirty work. As long as you use Islam - you cannot guide Islam to be anti-Hindu and not anti-USA/west/Israel. But, the "Catch 22" here is that if you don't use islam, then you have to have a a"secular force" and a we well disciplined army that will follow your orders and attack anyone whom you say. Such an army can be used to attack India alone, and leave the US untouched.

What we are seeing in Pakistan is a gradual turning of the wheel back to 1965 or thereabouts. Pakistan had a relatively secular well disciplined army that would attack India alone and not the west. They lost too many wars despite US arms) and gradually applied Islam to the problem and developed Islamic armies to attack kafir India. What we are seeing is a failure of that and an effort to remove Islam from armies. the US would have no problem with a secular pro US Pakistan with an army that opposes India with US arms. 1965 redux, in other words. The question is whether Pakistan can do that. I doubt it.

[abhishek_sharma]

Pakistan refuses to comment on ‘secret talks'

http://www.hindu.com/2011/04/25/stories ... 451200.htm

Sonia spoke to Pakistan Minister in Urdu

http://www.hindu.com/2011/04/25/stories ... 461200.htm

[Dipanker]

It would take long term social engineering approach to roll back the islamization of the Paki society which has taken place over the last 40 years. While the social engineering projects started by USA post 9/11 seems to be working in the broader middle east and bringing the desired change in terms of overthrow of despotic regimes and movement towards democracy (hypothesis being that a more democratic middle east will be less anti west), so far Pakis have have resisted kicking and screeming. They are still in the kicking and screeming phase currently with Uncle feeding carrots and sticks at the same time. Of course it may be it is too late for Pakis and the process of radical Islamization is irreversible, social engineering not withstanding. In that case it will be collective responsibility of the nations of the world to put her out of her misery and major share of that has to be borne by India.

[sanjaykumar]

This of course is the key question.

I believe that India has concluded that Pakistan is not worth the effort of re-engineering. Paradoxically, because India is now in a position to be able to carry out this reconstruction. This is related to the confidence instilled into the nation state of modern India by its economic growth and impending technological competence.

Pakistan holds no cultural, agricultural, technological, natural resource riches that India covets. India is happy to abdicate its previous millennial syncretic history for the sake of what looks increasingly like a sure thing. There may be a subliminal agenda to affirm the pre-Qasim narrative of Indian history.

[Anujan]

What we are seeing in Pakistan is a gradual turning of the wheel back to 1965 or thereabouts. Pakistan had a relatively secular well disciplined army that would attack India alone and not the west. They lost too many wars despite US arms) and gradually applied Islam to the problem and developed Islamic armies to attack kafir India. What we are seeing is a failure of that and an effort to remove Islam from armies. the US would have no problem with a secular pro US Pakistan with an army that opposes India with US arms. 1965 redux, in other words. The question is whether Pakistan can do that. I doubt it.

Hakeem-ji

It is not just hard, it is impossible. A subtle point to note is that Pakistan army has a constraint that IA does not. It has to be popular with the masses. The army is a party to the power structure in Pakistan. They derive their strength from the fact that they have guns and at some level they are popular. Through their actions and words, they have to maintain this popularity.

The abduls have already voted. They want to garland Qadri, defend him for free and let him make speeches from the top of van he is being transported in. The army has to be popular with these abduls. How do they propose to do that? By becoming secular, trimming beards, reintroducing alcohol and changing their Ghazi world view to that of a Nation state? When I say popular with the masses, I am not referring to the cohesiveness of the unit or preventing mutinies (that is a smaller of the two concerns). I am referring to something bigger:

There is a second constraint Pakistan army has which IA does not have. They have to maintain their power to maintain the profitable money laundering operation they have set up. Too many people have their knives drawn for the TFTAs. The various civvies who have various axes to grind (PPP for hanging Bhutto, Badmash for exiling him, MQM for karachi killings, etc). The feudals who probably dont take kindly to the Army's land grab. The fellows in Baluchistan and Tribal areas who have been massacred. The list goes on and on. Once they slip a little*, there will be inquiries after inquiries, commissions after commissions, heads set rolling -- in short everyone making sure that TFTAs are destroyed as an institution and not a threat to them ever again. The recent happenings in the ME with abduls on the street toppling despots can also be repeated with abduls on the street demanding that the Army be reformed.

I dont doubt that the army can impose some secular rules and enforce it among their soldiers. I doubt whether the army will survive as a power center in Pakistan if they do that. They will be eaten up by internal (mutinies) and external (loss of popularity & power) factors.

*Will write my thoughts on this in next post.

[Anujan]

If you observe the Pakis carefully, you see that the Army makes 100% sure that there is not even a tiny crack that the civvies can exploit. The moment civvies smell blood, they will instigate the abduls to come out on the street long-marching and demanding that the army be "reformed". In a sense this is like the Mafia game. You cannot stop the game and quit your top dog post, because you are dead if you do so.

Take for example the ISI down-hill ski. If you recall, Groper had announced before his US visit that ISI will come under the PM's office. Followed by a couple of visits by Ashphuck and Groper hurriedly downhill ski-ing. Similarly, Zardari "ordered" Pasha to visit India. One midnight call from Ashphuck and Zardari put on his skis.

One wonders what the big deal is. Tell everyone "yes yes ISI is under the PM, see!! There are no bad ISI/Good ISI". Get more baksheesh from the US.

Here lies the problem. The TFTAs draw the power from the fact that they know everything about the Civvies and can manipulate them at will (through the ISI). The civvies know nothing about the Army and have no leverage over them. To prevent exactly this situation, the taller than mountain friends used to have political commissars in every unit (dont know if they still do), who was a party member infused with party kool aid, ordered to monitor every member of the unit and report back to the party. OTOH, Paki civvies know nothing of what the army is doing. No idea of how they spend their money, what equipment they have, what strategy they pursue, their foreign policy objectives, world view, backroom deals with Cheenis, Saudis, etc. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. (This is partly the reason why I roll into fits of laughter when Groper talks about Nukes "Strictly under civilian control". Does he even know how many nukes they have? Of if they have any to begin with?).

The ISI is key to maintaining such power imbalance. The moment ISI starts snooping on the army and not the civvies, the power equation will change. The ISI will start snooping on the army if the civvies manage to get a constituency inside the ISI loyal to the civvies. Which they can do by bribing and promotions. Which can only happen if ISI is under civilian control. So you get the idea.

I think that bigger than India paranoia, Afghanistan paranoia, Baluchistan paranoia, US making them nook-nanga paranoia, the biggest paranoia Pak army has is survival paranoia. Their actions should be seen in this light. Including what seems to be the Army's massive investment in the media in Pakistan who serve as the internal propaganda arm of the Army to make sure that they remain popular.