News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

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Sunilchurchill
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Sunilchurchill »

Was wondering this morning that perhaps Daniel Pearl was killed/beheaded back in 2002 because he was about to learn the link between TSPA and OBL...would not be surprised if their is a link that is found in the tons of data that was retrieved by the seals...
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Klaus »

saip wrote:Unless he was targeting several trains at the same time it wouldn't have caused many casualties. Today I travelled by Amtrak and most of the train was empty. May be NY subway in rush hour?
The Boston suburban network seems more likely. However, they have shifted their focus to sites in Cal and Europe (France, Switzerland, Italy).
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Image

Special report: Why the U.S. mistrusts Pakistan's spies
In 2003 or 2004, Pakistani intelligence agents trailed a suspected militant courier to a house in the picturesque hill town of Abbottabad in northern Pakistan.

There, the agents determined that the courier would make contact with one of the world's most wanted men, Abu Faraj al-Libbi, who had succeeded September 11 mastermind Khalid Sheik Muhammad as al Qaeda operations chief a few months earlier.

Agents from Pakistan's powerful and mysterious Inter-Services Intelligence agency, known as the ISI, raided a house but failed to find al-Libbi, a senior Pakistani intelligence official told Reuters this week.

Former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf later wrote in his memoirs that an interrogation of the courier revealed that al-Libbi used three houses in Abbottabad, which sits some 50 km (30 miles) northeast of Islamabad. The intelligence official said that one of those houses may have been in the same compound where on May 1 U.S. special forces killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

It's a good story. But is it true? Pakistan's foreign ministry this week used the earlier operation as evidence of Pakistan's commitment to the fight against terrorism. You see, Islamabad seemed to be pointing out, we were nabbing bad guys seven years ago in the very neighborhood where you got bin Laden. :rotfl:

But U.S. Department of Defense satellite photos show that in 2004 the site where bin Laden was found this week was nothing but an empty field. A U.S. official briefed on the bin Laden operation told Reuters he had heard nothing to indicate there had been an earlier Pakistani raid.

There are other reasons to puzzle. Pakistan's foreign ministry says that Abbottabad, home to several military installations, has been under surveillance since 2003. If that's true, then why didn't the ISI uncover bin Laden, who U.S. officials say has been living with his family and entourage in a well-guarded compound for years?

The answer to that question goes to the heart of the troubled relationship between Pakistan and the United States. Washington has long believed that Islamabad, and especially the ISI, play a double game on terrorism, saying one thing but doing another.

...



The reality is Washington long ago learned to play its own double game. It works with Islamabad when it can and uses Pakistani assets when it's useful but is ever more careful about revealing what it's up to.

"On the one hand, you can't not deal with the ISI... There definitely is the cooperation between the two agencies in terms of personnel working on joint projects and the day-to-day intelligence sharing," says Kamran Bokhari, Middle East and South Asia director for global intelligence firm STRATFOR. But "there is this perception on the part of the American officials working with their counterparts in the ISI, there is the likelihood that some of these people might be working with the other side. Or somehow the information we're sharing could leak out... It's the issue of perception and suspicion."

...

GENERAL PASHA
ISI chief Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha visited Washington on April 11, just weeks before bin Laden was killed. Pasha, 59, became ISI chief in September 2008, two months before the Mumbai attacks. Before his promotion, he was in charge of military operations against Islamic militants in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. He is considered close to Pakistan military chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, himself a long-time ISI chief.

A slight man who wastes neither words nor movements, Pasha speaks softly and is able to project bland anonymity even as he sizes up his companions and surroundings. In an off-the-record interview with Reuters last year, he spoke deliberately and quietly but seemed to enjoy verbal sparring. There was none of the bombast many Pakistani officials put on.

Pasha, seen by U.S. officials as something of a right-wing nationalist, and CIA Director Leon Panetta, who was in the final stages of planning the raid on Osama's compound, had plenty to talk about in Washington. Joint intelligence operations have been plagued by disputes, most notably the case of Raymond Davis, a CIA contractor who shot dead two Pakistanis in Lahore in January. Davis was released from jail earlier this year after the victims' families were paid "blood money" by the United States, a custom sanctioned under Islam and common in Pakistan.

Then there are the Mumbai attacks. Pasha and other alleged ISI officers were named as defendants in a U.S. lawsuit filed late last year by families of Americans killed in the attacks. The lawsuit contends that the ISI men were involved with Lashkar-e-Taiba, an anti-India militant group, in planning and orchestrating the attacks.

...



The ISI has never really tried to hide the fact that it sees terrorism as part of its arsenal. When Guantanamo interrogation documents appearing to label the Pakistani security agency as an entity supporting terrorism were published recently, a former ISI head, Lt. General Asad Durrani, wrote that terrorism "is a technique of war, and therefore an instrument of policy."

...

LIST OF GRIEVANCES

That legacy is at the heart of Washington's growing mistrust of the ISI.
Take the agency's ties to the powerful Afghan militant group headed by Jalaluddin Haqqani, which has inflicted heavy casualties on U.S. forces in the region.

"We sometimes say: You are controlling -- you, Pasha -- you're controlling Haqqani," one U.S. official said, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

"Well, Pasha will come back and say ... 'No, we are in contact with them.' Well, what does that really mean?"

"I don't know but I'd like our experts to sit down and work out: Is this something where he is trying (to), as he would put it, know more about what a terrorist group in his country is doing. Or as we would put it, to manipulate these people as the forward soldiers of Pakistani influence in Afghanistan."

...

Recent personnel changes at the top of the Obama Administration also do not bode well for salvaging the relationship.
Panetta, a former Congressman and senior White House official, is a political operator who officials say at least got on cordially, if not well, with ISI chief Pasha. But Panetta is being reassigned to take over from Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense. His replacement at the CIA will be General David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. military operations in neighboring Afghanistan.

The biggest issue on Petraeus's agenda will be dealing with Pakistan's ISI. The U.S. general's relationship with Pakistani Army chief of Staff Kayani, Pasha's immediate superior, is publicly perceived to be so unfriendly that it has become a topic of discussion on Pakistani TV talk shows.

"I think it is going to be a very strained and difficult relationship," said Bruce Riedel, a former adviser to Obama on Afghanistan and Pakistan. He characterized the attitude on both sides as "mutual distrust."

After a decade of American involvement in Afghanistan, experts say that Petraeus and Pakistani intelligence officials know each other well enough not to like each other.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Jarita »

Osama bin Laden’s Yemeni wife, who survived the American raid on the family’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, said that her husband had lived there for five years, according to a Pakistani military official who spoke to The BBC on Thursday.

The official also said that the woman, Amal Ahmed Abdulfattah – whose Yemeni passport was leaked to a Pakistani newspaper this week – claimed that she had not left the room her husband was killed in on Monday for the past five years. She apparently confirmed that she was shot in the leg during the raid, as American officials have said, and added that she then passed out and so did not witness her husband being shot and killed.

What a complete horror
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Satya_anveshi »

This post could be consigned into the CT dustbin (or may even be in BENIS dhaaga) but just wanted to put it out there :)
Some fundamental aspects of this episode are:

- President of US claiming to have "authorized" killing of Osama Bin Laden in "sole" US launched Special Forces operation
- End of a character and bogeyman called Osama bin laden; So far he was "hiding" and is now buried "at Sea"
- Osama supposedly "hiding" in heavily guarded area of Pakistan (for years)
- Evidently ambiguous stand by Pukes of their involvement in the operation or "protection" of Osama

Further, a few reports /statements / perspective that could be used to in favor of..well..the CT

- SSS has been "reporting" for a while now that Osama's "footprints" are visible
- other reports of such "movements" and his presence in Dir, Manshera etc areas for a while now
- BO's reference to Aug2010 timeframe since Osama was under "watch"
- Illogical nature of Osama's presence in that area without the know of paki security orgs
- Groper claiming that "it is world's failure and not just Pakistan's"
- a recent public drama involving supposed "CIA acting chief" Raymond Davis in pakistan
- the biggest elephant in US room is always..POLITICS
- if I must say..even bigger factor (as far as I am concerned) is the filter I use on every claims made by US politicos say or what I hear in US media (especially regarding foreign policy).


Based on some of the above, my opinion is that:

Pakistan was officially hosting /protecting the character of Osama as THE US asset, the knowledge of which is/was pretty clear to most people in the "know" as in the intelligence community. This is/was an explicit requirement from US and so everyone including India/Afghanistan/West HAD to keep mum. (this relates to Groper's statement about world's failure above). One of the points raised in this thread (and elsewhere) was that Osama story ending in Abbottabad is a *given* that operation did not have FULL Pak consent BUT that is *exactly* the plausible deniability for Pak with regard to Jihadis which are the most important national security issue. With this ONE factor in the story, Pak security establishment elements have a bridge (if they needed) to develop relationships with (misguided) jihadi elements but more importantly leaders of the wider Muslim world removing any doubt whatsoever.
On the nature of incident and the timing, my opinion is to analyze events/news leading to it (from CT perspective:)). I would take S3's reports as saying Osama character is coming to end. Public spat with RD was to perpetuate the myth of US/Pak differences to enable the Paki objective mentioned above (deniability). As these played out on longer time scales, it is clear indication that US was picking an "appropriate" time for this story. And that time was chosen after duly "proving" or settling Birther issue. Discounting that an "operation" claim almost 100% ( :) ), my view is that Osama character was dead way earlier (if at all such a character existed) of natural or health related causes. Only milking of his story remained. All the drama was done in the dead of the night with all the claims we have heard. Pakis are laughing out loudly because they just had to nod, wink, laugh while US makes macho claims.
Ultimately, the prize is US Presidency and for which Pakis played their due roles. Any analysis that takes the US/Pak "differences" seriously bound to rebound. Their alliance is super dandy and glad that Indians/India are not making any moves just based on that.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by A_Gupta »

shiv wrote:
Some interesting things happening in Amreeka. Legally they are probably right in claiming that there is "No Firm Evidence of Pakistani Complicity". But I saw some news that someone in the House of Representatives has introduced a bill hitching US aid to Pakistan on proving that there was no complicity. If that is true saying that "there is no evidence of complicity" is not enough. There has to be proof of lack of complicity.

This may mean zilch ultimately because the US has certified previously that Pakistan is not making nuclear weapons.

The bill wants the "State dept" to certify that. The state dept is Hilary Clinton and Obama is her boss and if the say al iz well then the aid will go through.
Please remember the difference between "actionable intelligence" based on which wars are fought and won, and "evidence" used for criminal prosecutions. E.g., I'm reasonably certain that the US has only intelligence but not courtroom quality evidence linking Osama Bin Laden to 9/11; if they had it they would have long ago issued an indictment.

The whole "war on terror" is not a "police and court action against terror" precisely because of this distinction between intelligence and evidence.

One simply has to ask whether Osama bin Laden would have risked his life betting on ISI incompetence. The reasonable answer is no. Which means either OBL was forced to be in that compound in Abbotabad, or else he trusted the ISI. Either way, the Pakistanis knew.

The next question is how many Pakistanis knew? Presumably very few - else one or the other would have leaked the secret much earlier for money and visa.

The next question is - how were Pakistanis not in the know kept from the secret? How is some low- or mid-level intelligence type or policeman kept from poking his nose in and learning something? The answer has to be - just like with other government secrets - it is marked as "highly classified" and low level functionaries get the signal that they are not supposed to look, and generally they don't.

Nevertheless, to trust this system, OBL had to believe that (a) most of the people in the system would not willing betray him even if they by chance learned where he was hiding, and that (b) anyone who unwittingly came close to the secret would be summarily dealt with - i.e., really powerful people were behind him.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by svinayak »

http://thestir.cafemom.com/in_the_news/ ... n_feb_test

Ever since Osama bin Laden's death was announced on Sunday night, we've heard a lot of debate over the White House's decision not to release bin Laden death photos. Then, on last night's Daily Show, Jon Stewart weighed in and seemed to be all for showing the photos. His rationale?
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by abhishek_sharma »

This guy was advising Richard Holbrooke.

In Pakistan, no more secrets
Vali Nasr
Pakistan now has two options. It can become less cooperative with the U.S. counterterrorism campaign and in Afghanistan, and try to weaken the CIA in Pakistan. This would put Islamabad on a collision course with Washington; if the Davis affair is any indication, the resulting tension between the intelligence agencies will make it difficult for the nations to conduct business as usual. (Islamabad will also, of course, have plenty to juggle if another terrorist attack takes place soon in the West and is traced back to Pakistan.)

Or, Pakistan can conclude that its borders are too porous to Western intelligence for the likes of al-Qaeda, the Haqqani network and Lashkar-i-Taiba to safely organize, recruit and carry out attacks. Since Islamabad can no longer protect its jihadist and Taliban assets, it should reassess its strategic calculus and abandon a foreign policy that relies on jihadist adventurism.

If history is any guide, Pakistan cannot be relied upon to make the right decision. :rotfl: In the coming weeks, Islamabad is likely to hunker down in reaction to bin Laden’s death and then go after the CIA’s eyes and ears around Pakistan. But there is a window of opportunity for the West to nudge Pakistan to reevaluate its foreign policy. However narrow the opening, it is worth exploring.

Doing so would require the United States to react to this latest Pakistani transgression in a new way. Washington should not credit Pakistan for helping with hunting down bin Laden and then turn around and freeze relations and scale back assistance. Rather, Washington should continue its assistance programs and bilateral engagement to show Pakistan a path to a normal, long-run relationship with the United States. :evil: Meanwhile, it should engage Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership at the highest levels to push for a change in foreign policy. America’s confidence and Pakistan’s anxiety and vulnerability at this critical moment create an opening to push U.S.-Pakistan relations in a new direction.

The writer is a professor of international politics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He served as senior adviser to the State Department’s special representative on Afghanistan and Pakistan from 2009 to 2011.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by kmkraoind »

Sushupti wrote:
Speeches were interrupted several times by chants from the crowd of "Death to the Taliban! Death to the suicide bombers! Death to the Punjabis!" – a reference to the protesters' view that the Taliban are under the control of the ISI.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... tabad-lead
Image

The Former Afghan intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh is having shades of Putin, intense, cold blooded looks and is probably worthy to groom, because he is from Pashtun and is dead against pakjabis.
abhishek_sharma wrote:From NYT
The official also said that the woman, Amal Ahmed Abdulfattah – whose Yemeni passport was leaked to a Pakistani newspaper this week – claimed that she had not left the room her husband was killed in on Monday for the past five years. She apparently confirmed that she was shot in the leg during the raid, as American officials have said, and added that she then passed out and so did not witness her husband being shot and killed.
Pardon my civility. Five years, thats a long period for a viril, young lady, and seems to have no children during that period. Was OBL impotent or using contraceptives (against religion of peace) or he just ______ with musharaf.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by ramana »

So much confusion and spinning from US experts. A lot of pretzel logic being used to obfuscate the clear facts of what were the US elite doing buying the TSP story and now claiming being taken for a ride?
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Klaus »

Now the white pakis seem to want the spotlight: Gillard says Rudd did not jeopardise the OBL operation
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Kati »

Again, The telegraph's KPN has a great analysis.......
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110506/j ... 946507.jsp

Over the time, KPN has proved to have the best inside knowledge......probably thru his gora biwi.....who worked in a videshi dutavaash.

Two days ago, his previous article was looked down by some BRFites....but now that has been proved to be correct with more info coming out from various sources......
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by ramana »

ramana wrote:How many hours for Daoud Gilani to be linked to OBL Abbotabad safe house?
It was already there but in wrong thread...
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 4#p1084084
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Muslim Reaction to bin Laden's Death
Muslims around the world have had a mixed reaction to the killing of Osama Bin Laden by U.S. forces on May 1, from elation and anger to concerns over Pakistan. While overall response has been "surprisingly muted" across the Muslim world say Associated Press analysts, some Muslims--ranging from the United States (AFP) to struggling Somalia (Mareeg)--have rejoiced, blaming Bin Laden for a host of troubles including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the deterioration in Pakistan's security, and the war on terror. "For the Muslim world, it is like a lifting of a curse," says a Saudi-based Arab News editorial.

But some radical clerics and Islamist groups, such as Indonesia's Jemaah Ansharut Tauhid, called bin Laden a martyr (JakartaGlobe). Other Muslims have reacted to his death with disbelief, anger, and criticism (FT). Saudi columnist Dawood al-Sherian criticized the Obama administration for not bringing bin Laden to trial to "face justice like Iraq's former leader Saddam Hussein" (AFP). A government-backed Iranian newspaper notes that rather than seeking democracy in politically repressive Saudi Arabia, of which Bin Laden was a product, Obama "only kills bin Laden" (PBS).

Concerns are high in Muslim countries from Somalia to Pakistan, to Indonesia about possible reprisals from al-Qaeda-linked groups."Don't be too happy for Osama's death, because it will not automatically eliminate radicalism from the face of the earth," said one Indonesian political official.

At the same time, many say bin Laden's efforts to exploit political disaffection in the Middle East have been made irrelevant by the region's prodemocracy uprisings that have largely shunned radical violence and anti-Western rhetoric. "Osama bin Laden tried to ignite the demarcation lines between the Muslims and the West," writes Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of al-Hayat, a pan-Arab paper. "However, the winds of the past months showed the wish of Arabs and Muslims to enjoy freedom, dignity, and progress." CFR's Ray Takeyh agrees, noting, "The Arab revolt is a denunciation of radicalism in all its hues."

Still, whatever goodwill President Obama has created in the Middle East and with Muslims elsewhere may depend on the outcome of efforts to resolve the Palestinian question. He also faces continued criticism (Reuters) about the continued U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The U.S. raid on Bin Laden's compound in Pakistan also has raised significant questions. Islamabad continues to deny harboring bin Laden (NYT) or being negligent in the face of U.S. and international scrutiny, while denouncing the raid as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty. CFR's Daniel Markey says the incident comes at a crisis point in the U.S.-Pakistan and raises questions about whether the relationship can continue.

Badar Alam, editor of Pakistan's Herald Magazine, argues that finding bin Laden in Pakistan means "whatever trust or goodwill the country has been trying to build" in the recent past has "suffered a serious blow" (Dawn). Lahore's Mohsin Hamid writes Pakistan could be on a "collision course" with the United States at a time when Pakistan is suffering badly (Guardian) from radicalized Muslims at home, in part due to U.S. military action in Afghanistan. "America's 9/11 has given way to Pakistan's 24-7-365," :rotfl: he says, noting that if bin Laden's death leads to U.S. pullout from the region, there would be reason to celebrate.

Analysis:
Former U.S. ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk says bin Laden's death gives President Obama "a lot more credibility in the Middle East."

In the Times of London, CFR's Ed Husain writes, "al-Qaeda is no longer a mere organization, but a global brand, an idea, a philosophy that now has its first Saudi martyr from the holy lands of Islam."

In the Washington Post, Vali Nasr discusses the implications of the hunt for bin Laden on the relationship between the CIA and Pakistan's ISI, as well as overall U.S.-Pakistani relations.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Kanishka »

PBS Frontline Video: Fighting for Bin Laden.


http://video.pbs.org/video/1908468892

This url works!
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by svinayak »

abhishek_sharma wrote:
In the Times of London, CFR's Ed Husain writes, "al-Qaeda is no longer a mere organization, but a global brand, an idea, a philosophy that now has its first Saudi martyr from the holy lands of Islam."
This is what I suspected. They needed a self sustaining global jihad brand which the west could control and use it for long term. Giving global media coverage to bin Laden was for this purpose.
They may even make it legitimate in the future.

In the absense of Caliphate and the broken arab lands and lost Ottoman empire this may be the best global ummah identity they may get for the 21 century. They will recruit radical minds to this and send them for their geopolitical goals round the world.


Bin Laden cost the U.S. 'trillions'
CNN's Richard Quest says the estimated $2.5 trillion that Osama bin Laden cost the U.S. economy is only the beginning.
Last edited by svinayak on 06 May 2011 11:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Fidel Guevara »

I just heard the latest conspiracy theory that OBL was actually captured alive and is under the tender care of the CIA in a secret prison.

The SEALs might have shot him in the leg to create a DNA-verifiable blood splash in the house.

(Conspiracy theory number 15 or 16 methinks - we really should have a thread for these!)
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Altair »

Fidel Guevara wrote:I just heard the latest conspiracy theory that OBL was actually captured alive and is under the tender care of the CIA in a secret prison.

The SEALs might have shot him in the leg to create a DNA-verifiable blood splash in the house.
fidel
He was shot in the eye and chest. At least that is the official version. Its impossible for anyone to survive that. There are are non lethal weapons at US disposal which stuns the victims and incapacitates them. We are actually making self goals if we encourage such khanseepeeracey theories. The definite result here is that there is worldwide condemnation and mistrust of Pakistan short of branding them a terrorist State. Something we have not been able to do for the last 20 years. So let us not belittle what has been achieved.
What happened to Osama is irrelevant. If he is alive he will be milked every bit of information for the rest of his life. I would care less.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by svinayak »

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/05/05/ic ... f=obinsite
A black man becomes 'protector in chief'


The photo crosses one threshold of race in its unusual framing of an African-American man threatening violence, one black commentator says.
For much of U.S. history, the black man has often been portrayed as the threat to America's safety -- the angry man, the thug, the one you cross the street to avoid, says Cheryl Contee, co-founder of Jack & Jill Politics, a blog focused on current affairs from a black perspective.
But in the Situation Room photo, Contee says, the black man is America's protector.
The photo is visually suggestive of a new American landscape that we're still crossing into.
--Saladin Ambar, political scientist

There's no historical precedent for this image, she says. White Americans now see a black man not just as their president but their "protector in chief," Contee says.
"That photo is amazing," she says. "It's another step toward rehabilitation of the image of black men in American culture. It's going to forever impact how people see black men in America."
The photo also resolves a tricky image problem for Obama, says Jerald Podair, a history professor at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin.
Podair says Obama has always been careful to avoid the angry black male stereotype in his public persona, but has acquired another image -- that of detachment, even weakness.
The photo of Obama hunkered down with his national security team watching the stalking and killing of bin Laden solves both problems, Podair says.
"He can now appear strong without being threatening. After all, he's on our side. Obama can now take up his white predecessors' mantle of 'protector in chief,' " Podair says.
It's not certain how long that mantle will stay attached to Obama, but at least one political scientist says he's already seen the photo's impact.
"This is one of the rare times that Tea Party supporters have referred to Obama as President Obama," says Ari Kohen, an associate professor of social justice and political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
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Re: Breaking News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by rajithn »

anjan wrote:As for Paki claims, on any given day the Pakistanis claim a hundred different positions. I think we should stop worrying about the Pakistanis "claiming" victory and start thinking about the actual implications of the actions.
But thats exactly the point. We should also worry about the "Pakistanis' claiming. A lot of what the world believes is the perception you weave around any event. The packaging/messaging, if you will. Wouldnt you agree?
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Aditya_V »

Sunilchurchill wrote:Was wondering this morning that perhaps Daniel Pearl was killed/beheaded back in 2002 because he was about to learn the link between TSPA and OBL...would not be surprised if their is a link that is found in the tons of data that was retrieved by the seals...
Meanwhile Omar Sheikh Death Sentence seems to have been deleted after Media coverage is over, why can't at a Minimum MMS ask those relaeased because of Khandhar be handed back to SDRE's.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by rajithn »

abhishek_sharma wrote: Image
Marijuana growing just outside the walls of Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
Now you know why they insisted on burning their own garbage. Probably got stoned every evening.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Anujan »

Fidel Guevara wrote:I just heard the latest conspiracy theory that OBL was actually captured alive and is under the tender care of the CIA in a secret prison.

The SEALs might have shot him in the leg to create a DNA-verifiable blood splash in the house.

(Conspiracy theory number 15 or 16 methinks - we really should have a thread for these!)
Highly unlikely. The Pakis (through the remaining survivors in the compound) will be looking for each and every opportunity to discredit Obama. Already they are the ones who leaked the fact that it was *not* a big firefight and OBL did *not* use his wife as a human shield. Now some Pakis (as "unnamed sources" of course) are giving out interviews that OBL was in fact shot in "cold blood".

If OBL is not dead and they have the wife and daughter's testimony to go against BO's testimony, do you think they will wait? Do you think knowing this BO would have staked his reputation to go on air and claim OBL's death?
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Anujan »

rajithn wrote: Now you know why they insisted on burning their own garbage. Probably got stoned every evening.
Maybe this is the reason why some pakis are claiming it to be a "joint" operation 8) :mrgreen:
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Re: Breaking News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by rajithn »

shiv wrote:
rajithn wrote: Its just that we are too passive and benign to do anything daring.
This is exactly what I am saying - but I am merely pointing out that this "we" being passive is true for a very large number of Indians in the media and among the lay public including BRF. Cursing the government for being that way ignores the fact that the people are that way. Cursing won't help make it better although it may make one feel better for having cursed. By all means curse the government - but recall that a mere change of people in government is not going to change a national characteristic any more than a change of Paki government changes Pakiness.

We are looking at national characteristics here and while you can find exceptions - those are exceptions.

To my mind the response that India could show towards Pakistan could be
1) Aggression
2) Supine-ness as strategy

India seems to have chosen being supine as a strategy. While there are many Indians who hate this the assessment that you made about Indians, which I agree with, overrides national decision making : "we are too passive and benign to do anything daring." This in fact then dictates the way others respond to us. This explains why Pakis thought Indians would tremble and run away at the sound of gunfire. This is what started the stereotyping of the HIndu s coward - from some anonymous Pakistani.

We know that is wrong. We know that the entire people are not "cowards" but we choose to believe that while we and some people we know are not cowards, some others - lefties, pinko liberals, WKK crowd, pseudo seculars etc lack courage. India has a huge population of "lefties, pinko liberals, WKK crowd, pseudo seculars" who do not believe that aggression is the answer and believe that supineness has its own benefits. Gandhigiri itself involves using supineness as strategy. That is why India behaves the way it does. If you do not like this crowd and you are Indian - you have only two options. One is to opt out and join some other brave country (Pakis did exactly that) . Or the other is to work with this crowd to see what can get you the result that is most satisfactory given the make-up of people. However the lack of aggressive policy will only be seen as defeat and cowardice.
We are both essentially saying the same thing, arent we? And that is exactly why I said "I await the day when we can understand our own power and learn that WE need to take care of OUR problems. The US wont do it. Even today I fantasise that there is truth to what Shyamd refers to in other threads: that MMS's actions has a brilliant chanakian purpose to it."

There is an old saying "An elephant doesnt know its own strength". In our case we have adapted it to mean "We do not want to know our own strength"

Our national character is not benign. Our national character is more self-centered on the individual, the family and the home. We dont want to do anything ourselves but will likely whinge for just about everything! Its only a minority that acknowledges the self as part of a larger NATION. For others the NATION comes into play in a cricket match when they can wave the tri-color. Period. My personal opinion is that this selfish national characteristic came about in the early years after independence when the citizens did not have a reliable system to turn towards. Every one started looking out for himself/herself. Over the past generations this has woven itself into the national characteristic of the "Indian". It is slowly eroding but s.l.o.w.l.y. I dont expect to see the disctinct shift in my lifetime. When that changes, we wont have to look for another brave country. We will be that country. And we wont have to work with the others either - we can even set the agenda. But until then, we will see only the "supine".
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by rajithn »

[quote="AnujanMaybe this is the reason why some pakis are claiming it to be a "joint" operation 8) :mrgreen:[/quote]

:D

This turned up to be quite the profitable "joint" op for the Pakis. Especially the clown on the ground.

1. Gets to sell pics and make money
2. Gets to see weed and make money
3. Gets weed to knock himself out
4. Probably gained a few goats as collateral too
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Re: Breaking News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Rudradev »

ramana wrote: To add to that,
X-post...
We are not looking at the significance of OBL, HUM, LeT, OBL safehouse ownership by HUM, and location of Abbotabad to LOC. I think from 2005 he was the guiding light of Kashmir terrorists. I bet Daoud Gilani/DCH is also linked to him throught LeT. We should relook at Mumbai train blasts, 26/11 and other spectacular acts of terrorism. He could also be the brain behind Ind Mujahideen.

Ramana garu, I am very very skeptical about any significant role having been played by OBL in the Kashmir Jihad.

OBL was never an enemy of India, except in the broadest ideological sense. Just because he became the poster-boy of "dangerous Islamism" for the west, we do ourselves a disservice by adopting that image wholesale and applying it to an Indian context where it is not at all relevant.

Indeed, I believe the presence of OBL in our subcontinental neighbourhood was in fact a net gain for India. Let me explain why.

1) In the early 1990s, the US was full of hyperpower hubris. They had just won the cold war and destroyed the USSR, and Pakistan (via its support for the Afghan war) was appreciated as a key player in that campaign.

These times were the apex of influence for the Brzezinski/Scowcroft school of American foreign policy in the State Department, and Milt Bearden/Michael Scheuer were the victorious lions of the CIA. Many political figures of future importance, such as Madeline Allbright (and Robin Raphel further down the ranks) were rising stars under the tutelage of these worthies.

These people could do or say no wrong, as far as the US establishment was concerned. And what they were saying was that Pakistan must be THE primary US proxy in fashioning the new world order in South/Central Asia.

2) I know it is an assiduously created myth by the US media that Afghanistan and Pakistan were "ignored" after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. Nothing could be further from the truth.

A deliberate power vacuum was engineered in Afghanistan following the Soviet withdrawal, one that only Pakistan was capable of filling via its proxies. Washington, at that time, favoured the creation of an Af-Pak under Islamabad's TSPA/ISI rule. It fit in with Washington's game plan perfectly.

3) The game plan was ultimately, to create an Af-Pak dagger aimed at Western China and the former Soviet states of Central Asia. A dagger that could potentially play the same role against China as it had against the Soviets when needed...even as China was engaged economically by the US. Additionally, such an Af-Pak power under Islamabad could stabilize the Eastern flank of West Asia, threaten a recalcitrant Iran, and give the US "pro-Islamic" credibility with the Arab street.

Essentially the very "Great Game" ideas behind the creation of Pakistan in 1947, were seen to be "borne out" by the eventual usefulness of Pakistan in defeating the Soviet Union. Extending those same ideas, Pakistan (with Afghanistan as its vassal/strategic depth) was now going to be the launch-pad for expanding Western influence into the Asian heartland and containing America's potential competitors in that theatre.

This whole aspect of US foreign policy in the early 1990s was played out much more quietly than the rebuilding of former Soviet satellites in Europe, and the eastward expansion of NATO. Much more money (and publicity) were allocated to Marshall plans for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The creation of the AfPak dagger was a relatively modestly funded effort with a much lower profile. This is not surprising; one of the attractions of Pakistan to the US has always been its willingness to sell itself cheaply.

4) For this US proxy Af-Pak to enjoy unchallenged dominance in Central Asia, serving as an uniterrupted conduit for US forces in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea into the Asian heartland... it was vital that this Af-Pak should include all of J&K as well.

Hence, in the early 1990s, a multi-pronged assault was launched with the backing of Washington, to enable Pakistan to separate J&K from India. The assault had a military component, masterminded by Mirza Aslam Beg and Hamid Gul, in which Afghan war veterans and CIA expertise were used by the ISI to launch a "war of a thousand cuts" against India. It also had a political component, as evidenced by the redoubled efforts (via Robin Raphel) to build the Hurriyat Conference as a "democratic" platform for secession.

5) India at that time was seen to be a helpless state, from Washington's point of view. It was a former Soviet ally and not deserving of trust or sympathy. The strong leadership of IG was a thing of the past. India had slipped into a state of post-dynastic political turmoil following the VP Singh ascension of 1989... this was projected by Washington to mean political instability and lacklustre economic performance for the rest of the decade. To top it all off, in 1991 India had to go to the IMF with hat in hand.

Thus pressure was put on India from every direction to part with Kashmir. Our pleas to declare Pakistan a terrorist-sponsoring state were soundly ignored. We were lectured as never before on Kashmiri "human rights". When the ISI committed terrorist atrocities, such as the Mumbai '93 blasts, US investigators dutifully "misplaced" the evidence of Pakistan ORF ammunition given to them for examination. IMF strings were pulled taut whenever India made any move to assert or consolidate its regional position.

Had it not been for PVNR, our greatest Prime Minister to date, at the helm in those dire years... the plan to separate Kashmir might even have succeeded.

6) In support of the fiction that "Af-Pak was ignored after the Soviet withdrawal/ Pakistan felt betrayed by the US".... the laughable Pressler Amendment (which prohibited US arms sales to Pakistan on account of its nuclear weapons program) is often cited.

In truth, the Pressler Amendment was completely spurious as a non-proliferation tool. Pakistan already had nuclear weapons by 1990, tested and produced by China... and the US knew it. Given nuclear weapons and a large, well-organized offensive machine for subconventional warfare... jihadi veterans of the Afghan war and growing cadres of local Tanzeems... the Pakistanis could very well wage terrorist jihad in Kashmir without fear of conventional retaliation from India. The US knew this as well as TSPA/ISI did... hence, it did not matter at all if TSPA/ISI were denied conventional armaments and F-16s under the Pressler Amendment. In fact, such things could be held up as carrots by Washington to further guarantee TSPA/ISI's future cooperation in the great game.

In the 1990s, from Washington's point of view, it was more than enough to let Pakistan have control of Afghanistan and conduct nuclear blackmail against India. TSPA/ISI's economic strength did not suffer as a result of the sanctions... they had income from the Photochor nuclear proliferation industry via BCCI, and income from heroin sales via the Afghan poppy fields they controlled. They would do Washington's bidding, well-financed as they were through all these unorthodox mechanisms to which Washington turned a willing blind eye.

Thus the myth of the "Pressler Amendment" being a symbol of Washington's "negligence", "neglect" or even "neutral even-handedness" is nothing but a hoax.

Eventually, Washington was betting that India would tire of the sustained nuclear blackmail/terrorism from Pakistan and buckle under political pressure from the western world, giving up Kashmir. Then India could be turned into a docile, decapitated cash cow while martial Pakistan, imperial overlord of Af-Pak-Kashmir, could become the West's frontline soldiers for the dominance of Central Asia.

Managing China, Iran and resurgent Russia, rather than containing India, was the thrust of the 1990s Great Game. India, it seemed, would be a pushover.

7) The early and mid 1990s were truly dark days for India, as many of us remember. J&K was overrun by thousands of foreign mercenaries of the ISI, trained in Afghan camps under the tutelage of Hekmatyar and others. Pandits were ethnically cleansed from the valley by the lakhs. Dost Gul occupied the Hazratbal shrine and IA could not get him out. Harkat-ul-Ansar with its British-Paki cadres (including Omar Shaikh) were trying to "internationalize" Kashmir by kidnapping and murdering Western tourists. Meanwhile LeT and other groups were recruiting Punjabis to wage jihad in J&K, and also building bridges with the Islamist underworld of Dawood Ibrahim to terrorize the rest of India. Month to month, it seemed that we would inevitably lose Kashmir to an irrepressible wave of jihad.

At that time, we were growing our economy bit by tiny bit. We were still fighting the Khalistani separatists in Punjab, also supported by Pakistan and tacitly by the West. Northeastern insurgencies also received a tremendous boost in this decade.

As the decade wore on, China's tremendous economic rise caused it to gain political influence in Washington with the Hamiltonians. The Clinton-Wilsonians (Albright/Brzezinski) jumped on the Hamiltonian bandwagon, and it seemed as if the US was prepared to accept China's nominal overlordship of the Asian continent, to Pakistan's benefit and at India's expense. Washington even suggested that China could be an "honest broker" in mediating between India and Pakistan on Kashmir!

It was only through the greatest and most steadfast heroism that we stood firm through these times. This was the WORST of jihad we faced in Kashmir.
And Osama Bin Laden/ "Al Qaida" had NOTHING WHATEVER to do with it.

8 ) All the above is background.

Now we come to the story of OBL in the Indian subcontinent.

It begins in 1988 when OBL split from the Maktab-el-Khidamat, the organization that was originally formed under ISI/CIA aegis to funnel funds, weapons and materiel to the Afghan jihad. The rest of the OBL story can be seen as an effort by the TSPA/ISI to woo OBL back into their sphere of influence... with US support until 9/11, and for their own purposes after 9/11.
But in 1988, he split from the Maktab, because he saw the US and the West (including Israel) as a greater enemy of Islam than any power that the Maktab was focusing on. That was the birth of OBL's very own Pan-Islamic agenda.

OBL's mission was intensified in 1991, with the stationing of US troops in Saudi Arabia after Desert Storm (whose successful completion also contributed to Washington's hyperpower hubris.)
The stationing of US troops in the Holy Land of Islam, galvanized Bin Laden to declare Jihad against the West.

9) Bin Laden's chief targets were always the USA, the wider West, and Israel.

His base of operations was initially KSA, from where he was banished to Sudan in 1992. His chosen theatre was East Africa and the Arabian peninsula at this stage. However, he was already beginning to set his sights on the American homeland, as evidenced by the 1993 WTC bombing in which his associates like El-Sayyid Nosair and Ali Mohammed played crucial roles.
Around 1993-94, the charismatic Sheikh caught the attention of many Islamist opportunists from all over WANA, including splinter groups of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood who had been lying in wait for just such an opportunity. Fighting against Western-proxy dictators in their home countries, people like Ayman Al-Zawahiri could hope for neither political success nor personal glory... but under the banner of a pan-Islamist international Jihad against the greatest of Satans, all that might change!

Thus, the nucleus of Al-Qaeda was engendered.

10) It is important to note that at this stage, OBL never said a word about jihad in Kashmir.

In fact, I don't recall him mentioning Kashmir at all until about 2005. By that time he was a "guest" of ISI and the Hizbul Mujahedin, probably at Abbottabad. So, he was probably just relieving his polite obligations to his hosts by including Kashmir in his speeches.

There is a good reason why OBL... concentrating on Israel, the West and US-proxy-KSA...could not care less about Kashmir.

It goes back to the Arab Ghazi psyche.

To people like OBL, disputes like Kashmir are beneath contempt for an organization of Al-Qaeda's scope and ambition. They are squabbles between lesser beings, not worthy of his time or effort.

OBL (and most Arabs) do not see the Pakistanis as birathers. In fact, they see the Pakistan-India conflict as something not very serious; it is a case of upstart recently-converted SDREs fighting against kaffir, but highly Dhimmified and harmless SDREs. If a serious conflict erupts, Pakistan (as Muslims) must be supported; however, it is better to maintain a distance from both Pakistan and India in general. Both have their uses... Pakis as servile mercenaries and dalals for China; Indians as cheap, docile and sometimes skilled labour. The idea that India constitutes a "threat to Islam" would have made an Arab Ghazi like Bin Laden laugh... Kashmir or no Kashmir.


11) 1996 is a pivotal year in our narrative.

The Taliban consolidates TSPA/ISI's grip on its Af-Pak empire... with the full blessings of Washington.

India is in dire straits. After PVNR, her governments are falling within months. Economic reforms are progressing erratically. Kashmir jihad is at its height... and now, with Taliban in Afghanistan, it seems that Pakistan will have even more capacity to leverage its strategic depth and intensify that jihad even further.

At this fatal moment, the Taliban invite OBL (whom Sudan is trying to expel) to come to Afghanistan.

12) The Taliban's invitation of OBL to the Indian subcontinent is secretly welcomed by many... including Riyadh, Washington and Islamabad.

The US and Pakistan would very much like to see OBL turn his assets and energies towards the ongoing Af-Pak jihad against India. Saudi Arabia would be very happy with this as well.

If OBL and Al-Qaeda throw their weight behind the Kashmir jihad, they will be diverted from targets that actually matter to Washington... the US, Western countries, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The TSPA/ISI are happy too... they think that the addition of OBL's Pan-Islamist banner, plus the vast West Asian funding networks of Al-Qaeda to the Kashmir jihad, will give them the ability to push India over the edge. They assure Washington that, with Taliban cooperation, they can keep OBL diverted away from Western interests and towards India.

13) This beautiful plan fails to take into account the tenacity, single-mindedness and commitment of OBL to his grand vision... pan Islamic jihad against the West. As stated before, he doesn't give a cr@p about Kashmir. It is beneath him and his army to get involved in such a lowly scrap. He is after the US, and Israel!

14) What slowly unfolds now, is the eventual demise of Pakistan's best-laid plans for Jihad in Kashmir.

For a while, ISI's "war of a thousand cuts" continues in force. The nuclear tests of 1998 firmly establish Pakistan's capacity for nuclear blackmail against India. In Kargil, Musharraf uses jihadis trained by Afghan war cadre in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, as the thin edge of TSPA/NLI wedge to occupy Indian land. In December 1999, Punjabi Deobandi terrorists use the sanctuary of Taliban-controlled Kandahar to hijack IC814 and demand the release of Maulana Masood Azhar, a development that leads to the creation of Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Everything seems to be going well for Pakistan. But meanwhile, OBL isn't involving himself in J&K (other than a few massacres of rebellious Shias in the Northern Areas at ISI's request.)

On the contrary, OBL is using Taliban/ISI sanctuary to mount attacks on US interests in East Africa and the Arabian peninsula... Embassies, Khobar Towers, USS Cole.

And finally, on Sept 11 2001, he masterminds the attack on Washington DC and New York City that makes him a household name.

15) The rest is recent history which we know very well.

The Americans launch Operation Enduring Freedom, ousting the Taliban from power in Afghanistan, and replacing them with Karzai.

The TSPA/ISI chooses to GUBO to the Americans. Their betrayal of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda has lasting consequences. One by one, the Deobandi groups nurtured by the ISI go over to OBL's side. Wahhabandism becomes a sociopolitical force unto itself, and eventually the TTP is born.

This is exactly the opposite effect of what the Pakistanis had hoped to achieve by inviting OBL to Afghanistan. They had hoped that they could influence OBL to turn his attention away from the West and KSA, and towards India in J&K.

Instead, OBL has turned Pakistan's own proxies (created to wage jihad in J&K) against the US... and against Pakistan itself!

In effect, forces that were committed to the J&K jihad are now more committed to fighting the Americans in Afghanistan!

Besides this, the generous sources of funding which OBL used to bring into Afghanistan (and of which, some must have been siphoned off by ISI to use against India) quickly dry up under American pressure against the financial conduits. So even that fringe benefit of OBL's presence, quickly disappears for the ISI.

Net gain for India, any way you look at it, compared to the 1990s.


16) 2002 is another pivotal year.

OBL escapes from Tora Bora and into Pakistan proper. From here on he is shielded from the Americans by the ISI in a cat-and-mouse game lasting a decade. The ISI still hopes to use him as a figurehead of jihad in J&K... and if all else fails, sell him out as the ultimate bargaining chip to the Americans.

Meanwhile, the NDA government in India launches Operation Parakram in response to the Parliament Attack. The buildup of Indian troops along the IB alarms the Americans, who do not want their sizeable commitment of forces in Af-Pak to become embroiled in an Indo-Pak war zone.

Washington now starts to lean on Islamabad to rein back terrorism against India. Notably, terrorism against India in J&K goes into a steady decline from 2002 onwards... showing that J&K jihad was completely, entirely in the hands of ISI, and had nothing to do with OBL/Al-Qaeda.

17) From 2005 onwards, the character of the Afghan conflict changes. The ISI begins to use specific proxies among the Taliban to do its bidding in Afghanistan... including the Haqqanis, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, Maulvi Nazir, Hekmatyar etc.

Meanwhile the TTP (joined increasingly by Punjabi tanzeems following the Lal Masjid episode) intensifies its attacks on the TSPA/ISI. In following years, Swat is overrun, GHQ is attacked. The war overflows the FATA and NWFP into the heartland of Pakistan.

From 2005, ISI terrorism picks up again in India, not so much in J&K but elsewhere. LeT is used to build cadres of local terror cells owing allegiance to SIMI and the so-called "Indian Mujahedin." There is no evidence that any of this is related to Al-Qaeda, TTP or the Wahhabandi tanzeems.

OBL may have provided his blessings to these efforts as a gesture of gratitude to his Pakistani hosts... but he did not have either the assets, experience or reach within India to do anything of practical use. The LeT and ISI have far more assets in India than "Al Qaeda" ever did. So why would they need him as a "guiding light" or anything else?

In 2008, the ISI and LeT launch 26/11 against Mumbai in a desperate attempt to force military action by India, hoping that the various tanzeems fighting in Pakistan will unify under TSPA as a result. It doesn't happen.

18) The Obama administration, from 2008 onwards, takes an increasingly hard line towards Pakistan. Drone attacks are stepped up, and focus increasingly on Waziristan, where those factions of Taliban loyal to the ISI are based. TSPA defiantly refuses to engage in any military action in Waziristan.

Meanwhile it is the sunset of OBL's career. He is now ensconsed in an ISI/Hizbul Mujahedin safehouse far from the Afghan border, and close to the J&K border. Finally, he starts to mention J&K in his speeches. But this is no more than chai-biskoot.

It is unfounded to imagine that OBL played any significant role in J&K jihad, alongside the TSPA/ISI who betrayed him by GUBO-ing to the Americans. Why would he, when wars far more important to him were going on in Afghanistan, in Iraq, in Yemen? Why would he, when J&K had never been a matter of consequence to him in the first place?

19) Some have suggested that, near the time of his capture, OBL was a virtual hostage of the ISI in their Abbotabad safe-house. However, it's important to note that... while ISI had him by the balls, he also had them by the balls. It's not as if they could force him to take any greater role in J&K than he wanted, or force him to become involved to any greater extent than lip-service for politeness' sake.

What could the ISI do to him... hand him over to the Americans? In doing so, they would lose their primary trump card, their greatest bargaining chip of all. They would also earn the instant wrath of all the jihadi tanzeems that still remained loyal to TSPA, and possibly of allied Taliban factions in Waziristan as well (the formerly ISI-allied Maulvi Nazir in South Waziristan has already declared Jihad against Islamabad following the Americans' raid on Abbotabad!)

By 2011 the TSPA/ISI had been forced into a corner. 89% of drone attacks by the US in 2010 had been against ISI-proxy Taliban factions in N. Waziristan. Meanwhile TTP in Orakzai, Malakand and Bajaur had begun to hit back in force against the TSPA, including raids in Dir and Swat. The Raymond Davis episode, among other things, had forced US-Pakistan relations to the point of nearly public hostility.

The TSPA/ISI knew they could not keep up the show of defiance for very much longer. By summer the IMF had to approve critical loans that Pakistan needed to survive. If the only way out of this was to play the trump card... to sacrifice Osama Bin Laden, who was never any use to them against India anyway... so be it.

19) This brings us to the final chapter concluded last weekend: the American raid on the Abbotabad HM Safehouse where OBL was hiding.

The event is shrouded in mystery.

Could the US have conducted the raid without any knowledge of the TSPA/ISI top-brass? Unlikely.

However awesome the stealth helicopters, the NAVY seals, the high-tech jamming gear etc... there were just too many things that could have gone wrong with a purely unilateral operation, for Washington to risk it. From JSOC choppers getting shot down, to a fire-fight in urban Pakistan including civilian collateral damage, to the mistaken launch of a Pakistani nuke against India. Just too many unpredictable outcomes to consider, if the US had actually "gone it alone."

BUT BUT BUT... if Pakistan AGREED to let the US snatch OBL, why did they not bargain for a more H&D-saving facade? Why did they not insist that OBL be "found in the border regions of Afghanistan" rather than the very embarrassing location of Abbotabad? Why did they not angle for more recognition of their cooperative role so that they could get generous baksheesh in reward from the US Congress? Why did they submit to a raid that makes them look so very bad, in terms of H&D, and in terms of casting suspicion on their role in harbouring OBL all these years? Why did they let SEALS cart away incriminating evidence from the location instead of delivering Bin Laden to the Americans on their own terms?

There is only one possible answer: the Pakis may have agreed to let the US snatch OBL on such humiliating terms because... the only alternative available to the Pakis was WORSE. Unkil has something so damaging to the Pakis, that he was able to threaten them with it, and dictate the terms of how the OBL raid was going to go... or else.

What is that "WORSE" thing? I don't know.

I have a suspicion that it might revolve around two trials currently taking place in the US, though. The trial of Tawwahur Hussein Rana in Chicago; and the trial in NY where the families of American 26/11 victims are suing the Pakistan Army and ISI. Things which could have come out in those trials and become public information, may have been even more damaging to Pakistan than the mere fact of OBL hiding in Abbotabad all these years.

20) For India... for the last 20 years, we have faced jihad alone. We will face it alone for the next 20.

USA/Al-Qaeda squabbles don't matter to us; USA-Pakistan lovefest doesn't matter to us; Pakistan-China double teaming doesn't matter to us.

We have survived the connivance of all these parties under much worse circumstances, when we were much weaker. With the wisdom of our ancestors, the courage of our people, and the virtuous sword arm of Dharma on our side we shall continue to survive it until we prevail. Jai Hind!
Last edited by Rudradev on 06 May 2011 12:23, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by svinayak »

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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by sanjeevpunj »

rajithn wrote:
abhishek_sharma wrote: Image
Marijuana growing just outside the walls of Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
Now you know why they insisted on burning their own garbage. Probably got stoned every evening.
I was in Kashmir for a summer training camp of the National science Talent Scholars.All along the road to Srinagar, Marijuana grows wild. It is wonderful India never enacted any law against Marijuana usage, it should never be brought under the Narco Act, as it is not a Narcotic at all, it is a healing herb often used to cure mental disorders. It works particularly well if you have been traumatised by real life agonies, and it is not addictive.The active ingredient (Tetrahydrocannabinol) is used in liquid diluted form in Homeopathic medicine, to treat schizophrenia and other mental derangements. Of course no such substance should be consumed just for the heck of it.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by sanjeevpunj »

[quote="Acharya"]Dogs of war

Saw this video, awesome. Always admired this man's best friend.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by sanjeevpunj »

Geelani baba under house arrest for recommending prayers for OBL!

http://www.timesnow.tv/Geelani-under-ho ... 372457.cms
Last edited by sanjeevpunj on 06 May 2011 12:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Sanku »

Rudradev-ji, a tour-de-force of a post!!
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by kmkraoind »

Very good summary by Rudradevji, to be placed in best posts of BRF.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Atri »

Saadhu!!! Saadhu!!! Fascinating story Rudradev ji... Thanks a lot for that post.. You truly have an ignited "Prajna"...
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Lalmohan »

Rudradev - I nominate you for BRF equivalent of the Bharat Ratna
excellent analysis
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by sanjeevpunj »

Amazing analysis, Rudradev ji.
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by Klaus »

RD ji, you have all of us in sheer awe with that post. Basically crystallizing the entire global jihadi movement into one post, awesome!
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by svinayak »

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/johann-ha ... 58380.html
This raid was an anomalous moment in Obama's foreign policy. Most of the time it has been a clear continuation of Bush's -- and in several crucial areas, a ramping up of it. He has doubled the troops in Afghanistan. He has more than trebled the aerial bombardment of Pakistan and Yemen, even though it kills 50 civilians for every alleged jihadi -- and creates far more jihadis in the process. There is still no end in sight in Iraq -- where 50,000 U.S. troops remain, and Obama has canceled the deadline for bringing them home -- or in Afghanistan, where the war is entering its tenth year. Osama bin Laden is dead, but our foreign policy is still giving him what he wanted. We are still bleeding cash, creating bleeding countries and more enraged people.

Why? Even General David Petraeus, the new head of the CIA, says there are only 100 al Qaeda fighters in the whole of Afghanistan. One senior military official, speaking to the Washington Post, compared their intelligence on them to "Bigfoot sightings." Crunch the numbers, which the conservative writer George Will reported recently, and you find we are spending $1.5bn a year on each al Qaeda fighter in Afghanistan. Is there anyone alive, except the private defense contractors making a fortune, who thinks that is a sensible use of cash?


The angry, fighting people who really are in Afghanistan are -- according to leaked CIA reports -- simply "a tribal, localised insurgency" who "see themselves as opposing the US because it is an occupying power". They have "no goals" beyond Afghanistan's borders. It's not hard to see why they fight. The situation in Afghanistan is now so dire that even the president installed as a puppet by the U.S., former oil-man Hamid Karzai, has been reduced to begging the occupying forces: "Stop bombarding Afghan villages and searching Afghan people!" while publicly threatening to "join the Taliban."
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Re: News - Osama Bin Laden - killed In Pakistan

Post by krishnan »

As per a rediff article US kept a safe house near the mansion and kept it under survilence , before obama ordered the raid. Seems like US never really believed what paki said and ran their own inteligence ring inside pak. It also says , they took lot of effort to hide themself not just from AK and osama but also from ISI and other pak intelegent agencies
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