Iran News and Discussions

[RajeshA]

sanjeevpunj ji,

If I may say so, it is BS that Iran is a Sponsor of Terrorism. Iran is no more or no less a country that uses coercive tactics just like any other major power like USA, UK, Russia, PRC, etc to safeguard its sphere of influence.

Iran attacks military targets of its enemies, and usually not civilian targets as most terrorists do. If you want to know how a terrorist organization looks like, look no further than Pakistan or Al Qaeda.

Iran sees itself in a competition of power with its rival Saudi Arabia, and feels justified to play out this rivalry all over the Muslim world, and even though Sunni fanatics are willing to use bombings indiscriminately on civilians, Shi'as have been less indiscriminate.

Iranians also do not hesitate to come down heavily on its own citizenry if they see that they are working to undermine the Iranian regime, and then it does not really matter where this citizenry may be, in Iran, in other Muslim countries, in the West or elsewhere.

Sure Iranians are dangerous. They play Great Games with gusto, and they probably would not hesitate to use India as a battlefield either. But they are not the terrorists in the same class as Pakistanis or many other AQ and associated movements.

[sanjeevpunj]

^^^Pakis are the worst class of terrorists without doubt.However,Iran does sponsor terror groups specially in Iraq.All the roadside bombs that blow up in Iraq are made in Iran,and handed over to the AQ branches in Iraq.

[RajeshA]

^^^Pakis are the worst class of terrorists without doubt.However,Iran does sponsor terror groups specially in Iraq.All the roadside bombs that blow up in Iraq are made in Iran,and handed over to the AQ branches in Iraq.

Al Qaida in Mesopotamia was bursting bombs all over the place in Iraq - in Karbala, in Sadr City in Baghdad, etc. Shi'as were getting killed.

Do you think Iraqi Shias would take kindly to Iran giving Al Qaida bombs? Iran would lose all sympathy in a single day!

Sure Iran trains and supplies the Mehdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr, but that is a Shi'a group, and Moqtada al-Sadr too has had his spats with America. But that would be insurgency and not terrorism.

sanjeevpunj ji,

pardon me if I say so, but what you're writing is completely from an American viewpoint, and there is not even a shade of an Indian thinking there.

On this forum, I too have written a few posts advising caution when we deal with Iranians in various contexts and sometimes lashed out in anger at them.

But what you're doing sounds a lot like propaganda. You have to try to see it from the PoV of Indian interests and purge any other agenda you may be willingly or unknowingly presenting. Just some advice. Rest is up to you.

[sanjeevpunj]

Would love to see it from Indian POV if I get some inputs.I live in the Middle East so my view is definitely biased by what I read in the media.

[shyamd]

quick point: Iran did support bus bombings(civvie target) in israel. Hezbollah rockets on some civilian centres. But yes, they are as good or bad as everyone else.

[Agnimitra]

Iran may deploy warships in Atlantic

TEHRAN — The Iranian navy plans on deploying warships to the Atlantic Ocean as part of a programme to ply international waters, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayari said in statements published Tuesday.
[...]
"The presence (of ships and submarines) in the Mediterranean Sea, the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean and international waters is still on the agenda of the navy," Sayari said.

According to Sayari navy ships assigned to long-distance missions will be equipped with Noor cruise missiles.

"Ships going on missions are equipped with surface-to-surface Noor missiles," which have a range of 200 kilometres (125 miles) he said.

In February Iran moved two warships into the Mediterranean Sea, crossing the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, triggering anger in Israel which branded the move "political provocation" and put its navy on alert.

The two ships docked in Syria on February 24, marking Iran's first such mission since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
[...]
In recent years Iranian warships have also patrolled Iranian ships and those of other nations as they made their way across the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden.

[shyamd]

basically they are saying they want to lock down international trade - suez canal, IOR and perhaps in atlantic too.

Lol - More empty threats.

[Agnimitra]

"Iran steps up assault on terror "

Tehran is increasing its diplomatic response to world terrorism with some urgency as the United States withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan prompts Israel and Saudi Arabia to press Washington to return to an aggressive stance on Iran. Sympathy for the Iranians as victims of attacks is unlikely to flow, however, given claims the regime has not been entirely innocent abroad.

Maybe Iran is preparing grounds for future PR, because a lobby in the US wants to de-list the Mojahedin e Khalq. This would unleash a violent anti-regime movement apart from the mostly non-violent protests so far.

[Agnimitra]

Another reason for positioning itself as an "anti-terrorist" state:

Jerusalem Post: Iran strikes across border into Iraqi Kurdistan

A border dispute between Iran and the Kurdish region of Iraq underwent a significant escalation this week, as Iranian Revolutionary Guards crossed the border to engage with guerrillas of the PJAK, Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan.

The incursions began on Saturday night. Fighting continued throughout most of Sunday.
[...]
The Iranians also claimed to have captured a wounded PJAK member. A Colonel of the Revolutionary Guards, Delavar Ranjbarzadeh, told IRNA that PJAK had suffered a ‘heavy and historic defeat.’ The Kurdish rebels dismiss this version of events. PJAK spokesman Sherzad Kamankar said 53 Iranians had been killed in the clashes, along with two PJAK members.

Kamankar said the Iranian attack had been coordinated with local Islamist fighters. He said PJAK had succeeded in forcing the Iranians to retreat back across the borderline.

Kurdish sources in the area confirmed Iranian bombardments took place at a number of other points along the borderline over the weekend. The areas of Sehit Harun and Dola Koke, inside the Kurdish-ruled part of Iraq, also came under fire.

Both Iranian and Kurdish sources noted a buildup of Iranian forces, possibly indicating further escalation ahead. IRNA reported the presence of 5,000 Iranian troops along the border.

The Iranian incursion into the Kurdish-ruled area of northern Iraq is the latest stage in a process of escalation that has been under way over the last month. On July 3, Massoud Barzani, president of Iraqi Kurdistan, warned the Iranians over ongoing cross-border operations by their forces.

Iran responded a week ago by accusing Barzani’s government of allocating 300,000 hectares of land to the PJAK without the knowledge of the central government in Baghdad. Iranian officials said the land was intended to be used as a base for training and for launching attacks into Iran.

An official quoted by the Fars News Agency said Iran “reserves its right to target and destroy terrorist bases in the border areas.” Barzani denied any lands have been allocated to the PJAK.
[...]
Some Kurdish sources note Iranian concern over the possible loss of Tehran’s main Arab ally – Bashar Assad’s Syria.

Though it has not yet materialized, it is generally accepted that firm Western support of the Syrian opposition could form a decisive factor in bringing Assad down. Iran may well consider that one of the ways of preventing the emergence of such support would be to remind Washington of its own vulnerability to disruption and subversion in Iraq. The events of the last days thus cast a spotlight on a largely ignored element of the Cold War under way between Iran and its enemies in the region.

Increased activity by Iranian-supported Shi’ite terrorist groups in southern and central Iraq has been noted in recent weeks. Actions by such groups resulted in the deaths of 15 US troops in Iraq in June. It now appears the Kurdish-ruled areas of northern Iraq are also set to be included in this Iranian campaign of destabilization.

Stirring up a crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan is of particular value because this area has been the quietest and most well-administered part of the country since the US invasion. The presence of anti-Iranian and anti-Turkish guerrilla groups in the Qandil Mountains border area has posed a dilemma for the Kurdish authorities.

Mindful of the very difficult conditions facing their fellow Kurds in these countries, they have been reluctant to act against these elements. The result is that Iranian bombardments and Turkish air raids form part of the reality of life in these areas.

This has continued even as the Kurdish authorities have attempted to establish normal relations with Iran and Turkey.

Iran now appears to be activating this front for its own purposes.

[Agnimitra]

More on Iran's concern about terrorists...
Iran's state-funded PressTV airs this program (video and transcript here):
US not wavering from future Iran invasion

Enemies of Iran who profess to fight a war against terror are financing, protecting and steering major terrorist groups to create sectarian strife in Iran to pre-empt an intervention.

Press TV talks with Mark Dankof, investigative journalist from San Antonio who outlines the greater imperial game plan of the coalition of the US, Israel, France, England and Saudi Arabia against Iran.

Press TV: The US and Israel and others are supporting the MKO and the PJAK group of terrorist organizations -- Doesn't that go against the notion of the US fighting terrorism and terrorist groups while they are supporting the PJAK group in particular?

Mark Dankof: There's no question about it. You could go back to January 1981 the so-called Algiers Accord when the US committed itself to never intervening or interfering again in the internal affairs of Iran.

Obviously when you look at what's happened in the last 30 years we (US) have trampled all over the Algiers Accord and our support for PJAK; our support for the Mujahidin-e Khalq; and our support for Jundallah is clearly evidence of the fact that we are perpetually intervening in Iran's business engaging in acts of terror and cross border incursions.

[shyamd]

^^Be careful with the Iranian Press TV and assorted channels. They do make up a lot of BS. This iranian journo from Tehran Times emailed S Varadarajan a journo, asking about what he thought about Delhi's position on Iran and so on. He didn't reply. They completely made up his interview and made a complaint.

Regarding the above 2 news reports.

KRG is allied with GCC and the US/Israel. Which is quite weird because Iran actually has some of the KRG leaders by the b@lls as they used to be in exile in Iran and know their secrets. Turkey, Israel, Iran use the different kurds against each other. Baghdad is silent about Tehran's moves into Kurdish territory because Maliki is allied with Tehran. The Iranians are looking for a limited conflict with the west at some point. THe western alliance don't want to give them a fight yet due to the finaincial trouble back home. So, they want to stretch the Iranians, keep the iranians guessing. random troop movements around the Persian gulf (which means IRan has to spend money on moving troops around), using these type of groups, continue strong economic sanctions on Iran. Eventually tehran will fall from within, as disputes over the persian grand strategy take place. At least this is the hope. And it seems that they don't mind Iran going nuclear. I think thats because the GCC has nukes anyway.

GCC Confederation may be a reality very soon. The hope is by 2014 the US will be in a better positin financially to take on Iran (not militarily). What you may see is GCC increase supply of oil in order to lower oil price putting IRan under greater pressure (improve US economic situation too). Iran is currently very split - you can see this with the Ahmadinejad and Khamanei problems.

So the key to success is: Continuous troop build up in Afghanistan, Iraq, Gulf naval armada's. Random moves in Lebanon, pressure on Syria. Keep the Iranians stretched and eventually outspend them and they'll go bankrupt. Similar to our strategy with Pak and the US/KSA combo against Soviets.

[Agnimitra]

^^^shyamd ji, thanks for your valuable comments as usual.

^^Be careful with the Iranian Press TV and assorted channels. They do make up a lot of BS.

Yes, that's why I inserted the bit about it being a regime mouthpiece.

The Iranians are looking for a limited conflict with the west at some point. THe western alliance don't want to give them a fight yet due to the finaincial trouble back home.

Do you think this is why the US may use proxies like the MeK to give the IRGC something to fight with? Considering that there is universal disgust for MeK within Iran itself (among reformists and fundoos, etc), do you think it would be a good idea? Or would it unite the quarreling MA and Khamenei factions there?

A vote is coming before the House Foreign Affairs Committee this week on whether to endorse removing the Mujahedin from the U.S. foreign terrorist organizations lists. This would enable it to operate freely and even receive U.S. funding for renewed attacks in Iran. John Bolton, Daniel Pipes rooting for them already. But the Iranian-American lobby is against the move.

[Agnimitra]

Also ...

Turkey, Israel, Iran use the different kurds against each other.

Turkey actually has a working relationship with a faction of Kurds?

[shyamd]

Thank you for your interest.

Do you think this is why the US may use proxies like the MeK to give the IRGC something to fight with?

Of course. They used the MEK to conduct ops in south western Iran. Spy ops, assasinations etc. There are proxies backed by foreign powers all around Iran. PJAK and assorted Kurdish groups (tight with israel), Jundallah (even though weakened thanks to KSA), MEK and many more.

Considering that there is universal disgust for MeK within Iran itself (among reformists and fundoos, etc), do you think it would be a good idea? Or would it unite the quarreling MA and Khamenei factions there?

There are no morals in international politics, the mantra is do anything for survival. and self interest is all that matters.
MeK is not a major issue really imo.

Another issue at play is that if the MeK are expelled from Iraq to Iran, then there is going to be murder/HR abuse.

THe iranians want a limited conflict with hte west to unite thier country, increasingly Iran is looking like TSP. TSP is looking for a limited conflict with us, we are not going to give them one. Ultimately the strategy of talking and working against them will see them fall from within. In India's case, we don't really want to see TSP fall (as we'll have to pick up the pieces/foot the bill), but reform rather - i.e. a choice of cooperation with us or conflict. Of course, if the west/GCC wanted to go to war with Iran tomorrow, we all know the west will smash Iran to bits. Same with India and TSP, we can defeat them/take over their territory if we want to.

A vote is coming before the House Foreign Affairs Committee this week on whether to endorse removing the Mujahedin from the U.S. foreign terrorist organizations lists. This would enable it to operate freely and even receive U.S. funding for renewed attacks in Iran. John Bolton, Daniel Pipes rooting for them already. But the Iranian-American lobby is against the move.

Yes. They are trading accusations. What you are seeing is the (former) Bush administration guys come out in support of the MeK. MeK is useful for intel ops inside Iran. A useful addition to keep the pressure on Tehran. Let them keep spending, eventually, once the Saudi's decide to flood the market with oil, price will go low. Tehran will run out of money. The west will just keep the Iranians guessing and keep the "war" hype going.

Meir Dagan made a big mistake running his mouth.

[shyamd]

Also ...

Turkey, Israel, Iran use the different kurds against each other.

Turkey actually has a working relationship with a faction of Kurds?

Yes. They work with the KRG. Well known. They even invest in KRG territory - See Genel Enerji (if you are interested in shares trading - rumour is they might get taken over).

Syria, Iran, Turkey, Israel all use their own Kurdish groups to further their interests.

[Agnimitra]

shyamd ji, thanks again for the perspective.

Of course, if the west/GCC wanted to go to war with Iran tomorrow, we all know the west will smash Iran to bits. Same with India and TSP, we can defeat them/take over their territory if we want to.

Isn't it more complicated? Just like TSP's land is protected from our reposession by her patrons, does Iran have her godfathers? What would Russia's and China's stance be in a US/GCC open assault on Iran?

[shyamd]

My point was just to illustrate the relative military weakness of Iran & Pak wrt West/GCC / India

If the west, really wants to do something, don't expect PRC or the Russians to do anything too drastic. All out war would be costly for both sides - won't happen. Its not a long term solution. Just like with TSP.

For India - yes it can get complicated - in 1971, you know what happened. Again cost/benefit issues. I am just talking about capaiblities.

Quite frankly, we have made it clear, the next war will be to destroy Pak - whether its worth it - cost/benefit is a different matter.

Same with Iran - best thing is opt for a long term solution - in both cases outspending/weakening the country from within and eventually collapsing itself. Pak is teetering on the verge of collapse, but its sort of in our interests to keep it together and strengthen civvies.

[RajeshA]

Pak is teetering on the verge of collapse, but its sort of in our interests to keep it together and strengthen civvies.

Or not...

[shyamd]

^^ Well, I don't think we want to deal with the fall out and foot the bill. What do we do with the nutcases next door? The virus is just too deep.

Stuff like interbreeding that you suggested is a good idea and reintegration into the hindu fold is a good solution. Rediscovering their buddhist roots perhaps.

[dnivas]

http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-sh ... 110721.htm

Iran, which has been selling crude oil on credit since late December when Reserve Bank of India halted use of a clearing mechanism under pressure from the United States, had on June 27 written about stopping supplies from August if the dues are not paid.

Mangalore Refinery (MRPL), Essar Oil, Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Indian Oil (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) have not received any intimation from National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) on the quantity of crude they will get from Iran in August,

[sanjeevpunj]

As the U.S., allies depart, Iran courts Afghanistan

Tehran on charm offensive to take advantage of America's rocky relations with both Karzai government and Pakistan.
Both Karzai and Zardari went to Tehran at the end of June to attend an international conference on terrorism hosted by the Iranian government.
This conference, of course, made no mention of Iran's sponsorship of what many consider terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
Instead it followed a theme set by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when he said the conference would focus on the "calculations of satanic world powers, which use terrorism in their policies and planning to achieve their illegitimate goals."

Source:http://www.vancouversun.com/news/allies ... story.html

[Agnimitra]

AToI's take on the recent incursion:
Iranian incursions keep others guessing
Iran strayed into Iraqi-Kurdistan this week while hunting members of the Kurdish insurgent group Free Life Party of Kurdistan, with the offensive coming alongside allegations that the region's leadership is assisting the PJAK. By pressurizing the Kurds, Iran hopes to erode Kurdish support of a prolonged United States presence in Iraq, viewing this as a threat to Tehran's own designs on the country.

[shyam]

Iran: 'Nuclear' scientist shot dead in Tehran

[Agnimitra]

^^ These guys are not provided any security detail?
--------------------

Iran may cope with India oil money loss, but no more

[shyamd]

Iran: 'Nuclear' scientist shot dead in Tehran

Its just another slap in the face of the Iranian intel minister Moslehi. He was boasting of disrupting a major network assassiating scientists. Just wihtin a week the response has come.

Initial news reports suggested he was IAEO official - then changed to uni student lol.

Added later: Its actually a very tactical way of hitting 2 birds with 1 stone. It was Ahmadinejad's plan to get rid of Moslehi for his incomeptence, but Khamnei backed him and this was also a bone of contention between the two. This hit has just actually made things a little worse.

[devesh]

India's behavior with Iran is puzzling. does Washington have that much power over New Delhi and they can force India to stop payments to another sovereign country??? this is worrying. I can't help thinking there is much more going on here.

[svinayak]

India's behavior with Iran is puzzling. does Washington have that much power over New Delhi and they can force India to stop payments to another sovereign country??? this is worrying. I can't help thinking there is much more going on here.

Did you consider that India may be playing along with this only to show support.

[Rony]

Iran's Ahmadinejad nominates IRGC's Ghasemi as oil minister

[shyam]

Don’t Get It Twisted, We Are Already At War With Iran

This weeks Iran launched an Oil Bourse on Kish Island. At the same time, former CIA officer and middle east expert Robert Baer stated that Israel is preparing to possibly attack on Iran in the Fall. Meanwhile, a US Drone was shot down Iran and a senior Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated. There are a lot of behind-the-scenes secret activities taking place right now that make it hard to say with any definitiveness what will happen next in this theatre.

[sanjeevpunj]

US charges Iran with al-Qaeda links
By Anna Fifield in Washington.July 28, 2011 7:53 pm.
The US government has accused Iran of allowing al-Qaeda operatives to funnel a “significant” amount of money through its territory to the group’s leaders in Pakistan and Afghanistan, making the strongest allegation yet of a link between Tehran and the terrorist network.
The Treasury Department on Thursday imposed sanctions on six men that it says are operating through Iran as part of a “critical funding and facilitation network for al-Qaeda”.

Read more at:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43c235e8-b936 ... abdc0.html

[Agnimitra]

PJAK terrorists attack Basij outpost in northwest Iran

TEHRAN, July 29 (MNA) – Armed members of the counter-revolutionary group PJAK (the Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan) attacked a Basij outpost near the city of Sarvabad in northwest Iran on Wednesday, martyring one Basiji and injuring four.
Reportedly, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps forces have also inflicted heavy causalities on PJAK terrorists during the clash.

IRGC forces have launched a major offensive against PJAK since mid-July after a high-ranking Iranian military official criticized Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government for failing to halt PJAK terrorists’ activities in Iraq.

On Wednesday, a commander said IRGC forces have killed about 50 PJAK terrorists in northwest Iran over the past few weeks.

The IRGC commander also said operations against PJAK will continue until Iraqi forces deal with the group.

On July 22, in another terrorist operation by PJAK, a vehicle, carrying a number of IRGC personnel, struck a mine, killing six troops including a colonel.

[shyamd]

India's behavior with Iran is puzzling. does Washington have that much power over New Delhi and they can force India to stop payments to another sovereign country??? this is worrying. I can't help thinking there is much more going on here.

India's relation with "Islamic republic" of Iran is directly tied to the nuclear deal. When the US try to F us over in the nuke deal, we play the Iran card. Simple. But we also visit Tehran to get an understanding of thier position on Af-Pak. Our strategy there is dependent on Iran to a certain extent. we don't want to see it go to waste. So we need to get an idea of what they are thinking and so on.

[shyamd]

Iran’s president, cleric at odds over nukes

VIENNA — Iran’s president wants to shed the nation’s secrecy and forge ahead openly with developing nuclear weapons but is opposed by the clerical leadership, which is worried about international reaction to such a move, says an intelligence assessment shared with the Associated Press.

That view, from a nation with traditionally reliable intelligence from the region, cannot be confirmed and contrasts with assessments by other countries that view Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as relatively moderate on the nuclear issue compared to the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Attempts to interpret Iran’s goals are important because as it expands uranium enrichment, it is moving closer to being able to make a nuclear weapon, even as it asserts that it is not interested in such arms and its programs are geared only to making reactor fuel.

A U.S. official cited one assessment he has seen suggesting Mr. Ahmadinejad may be more “moderate” — more open to talks with the international community on resolving nuclear concerns than Mr. Khamenei. He asked for anonymity because his information was privileged.

But a blunt comment by Mr. Ahmadinejad last month raises questions. While repeating that Iran does not want nuclear arms, he openly reinforced its ability to make them, telling Iranian state TV that “if we want to make a bomb, we are not afraid of anybody.”

That defiant statement fits the scenario laid down by the intelligence assessment shared with the AP, depicting Mr. Ahmadinejad as wanting to move publicly to develop a nuclear program.

Mr. Ahmadinejad is pushing “to shake free of the restraints Iran has imposed upon itself, and openly push forward to create a nuclear bomb,” says the assessment.

But Mr. Khamenei, whose word is final on nuclear and other issues, “wants to progress using secret channels, due to concern about a severe response from the West,” says the report.

The varying views reflect the difficulties that intelligence agencies face when probing a secretive nation. Lines of division are murky. Alliances shift and positions change, leaving governments and private analysts frustrated as they try to nail down Tehran’s nuclear end game. ( a tactic the iranians have always played - learning from India )

They converge, however, in noting that recent political divisions between Mr. Ahmadinejad and Mr. Khamenei have spilled over to encompass Iran’s nuclear activities to a greater degree than before.

While much about Iran’s nuclear program is opaque, the growing capacity — if not the intention — to make weapons is on the record, captured in International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports documenting the expansion of Iran’s enrichment program from its clandestine beginnings more than a decade ago to one that has produced enough material for more than two nuclear bombs.

More recently Iran has begun enriching uranium to higher levels that would lessen the time needed to make weapons-grade material. And its stonewalling of an IAEA probe based on U.S. and other intelligence of secret work on components of a nuclear weapons program is adding to concerns raised by Tehran's refusal to freeze enrichment despite U.N. sanctions.

“They claim that all of their activities are for peaceful purposes,” IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano told the AP. “But we have information that might have military implications and there are other activities that we don’t know well, so it is difficult for us to draw a conclusion it is exclusively for peaceful purposes.”

Intelligence reports of tensions between Mr. Ahmadinejad and the ruling clerics are in line with other signs showing Mr. Ahmadinejad at odds with Mr. Khamenei with less than two years to go into his presidency.

In recent months, Mr. Ahmadinejad apparently fired — and was forced by Mr. Khamenei to reinstate — his interior minister in what some analysts see as a rebuffed attempt by the president to eliminate rivals to candidates he would like to see in positions of power, once his second and last term ends in 2013.

That prompted an outburst of public criticism and led rivals in parliament to start proceedings that could in the most extreme case lead to impeachment.

Reports of disagreement on nuclear issues predate that dispute, but some officials from member nations of the Vienna-based IAEA see tensions over the future of the nuclear program sharpening.

Proliferation expert David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security says his briefings from European government officials who have seen the latest U.S. intelligence assessment on the Islamic republic seem to support the assessment shared with the AP that Mr. Khamenei is worried about how the world would react to a nuclear-armed Iran.

“There is a lot of caution in the regime about the implication of building nuclear weapons,” says Mr. Albright.

The leadership is “worried about starting a nuclear weapons race and worried about the international impact,” said Mr. Albright, naming reactions from regional powers Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey as that of greatest concern to Tehran.

Both Egypt and the Saudis have indicated that they would contemplate acquiring nuclear weapons if Iran had them.

One theory voiced by government officials and private analysts is that Iran might be looking to reach the level just short of making nuclear weapons — but able to do so quickly if it feels threatened.

Happy to see the US intelligence shares a similar assessment as me on MA.

[pralay]

India resolves Iran oil bill spat

Iran and India have resolved a payment dispute that was threatening to halt the Islamic state's crude exports to India.

The National Iranian Oil Company said the two sides had agreed to settle the bill as soon as possible, state news agencies said.

Iran had threatened to cut off supplies to India if payments were not made by 1 August.

US sanctions on Iran make it difficult to send international bank payments.

"Following bilateral negotiations, the two sides agreed to settle the outstanding bills as soon as possible," Ahmed Qalebani head of the NIOC was quoted as saying by the Iranian Oil Ministry website Shana.

Iran's state-run news agency Irna also reported the deal.

Mr Qalebani indicated that the payments would be made in two parts, with the first being settled in the coming days.

Mohsen Qamsari, head of the NIOC's international department, added that Iran was still shipping oil to India.

About 12% of India's oil demand is met by crude from Iran.

Indian companies have been looking for an alternate way to make payments to Iran after the Reserve Bank of India stopped a clearing mechanism at the end of last year.

[Agnimitra]

Tehran Times advertizes:
'Iran's exports to Afghanistan hit $1.3bn'

“The volume of Iran's exports to Afghanistan has increased from USD 300 million to USD 1.3 billion a year,” Maleki told IRNA on Monday.

The Iranian envoy added that food products and goods in families' consumption baskets are the main items exported from Iran to its eastern neighbor.

He went on to say that Iranian companies are active in industrial, mining, infrastructure, irrigation and dam construction projects in Afghanistan.

[...]
Earlier, Director of Marketing and Business Relations for Iran's Trade Promotion Organization Reza Tofiqhi said that Iran's exports to Afghanistan showed a 20 percent increase in the past Iranian calendar year compared to the year before.

[rahulm]

Pak is teetering on the verge of collapse, but its sort of in our interests to keep it together..

is also a view across much of the politico-military cross section in India. We will deal with and pick up the pieces if we have to but keeping Pak together or at least not actively bringing about its collapse is seen as a lesser evil.

[abhishek_sharma]

The Enemy of Iran's Enemy: Al Qaeda's tangled history with the Islamic Republic.

[Agnimitra]

Can the Israel lobby in Washington really be this powerful? Opinion in the Iranian and Islamic media have consistently been portraying the situation as the US doing Israel's bidding even at the cost of its own national interest...

US grows a tree of tension with Iran

A full-fledged tree of tension with Iran has been nurtured by Washington, firmly rooted in a comprehensive regime of sanctions, military encirclement, propaganda and psychological warfare, and a low-intensity proxy war through ethnic terrorist groups. It is now spiraling toward yet another confrontation in the Middle East.

[...]

The US has now formally linked Tehran's regime with al-Qaeda in an escalation of anti-Iran rhetoric that is officially justified in Washington in terms of proving that the White House is "in control" of Middle East developments and not swamped by the domestic turmoil over the US national debt. Yet this is a lame excuse and raises the question of who really is in control of the US's Iran policy?

From Tehran's vantage point, the answer is straightforward. According to a Tehran University political science professor, who spoke with the author on the condition of anonymity, "A select group of Jewish policymakers in the White House, State Department and Treasury have hijacked President Obama's policy on Iran and Obama may wake up one day and find the web of conflict with Iran so tightly wrapped around him that he has no choice but to lock horns with us."

[...]

America's problem is, however, that it is financially drained as a result of costly wars and a conflict with Iran could have potentially disastrous implications for the global economic recovery by triggering skyrocketing energy prices, not to mention complicating the cauldron of multiple crises in the Middle East.

The political upheaval in the Middle East represents a major challenge to the US, which sees its traditional authority in various parts of the Arab world, including Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain, enveloped by serious question marks - this while there is very little the US can do to stop the momentum for Palestinian statehood now building up at the United Nations without further sullying its image in the Arab and Muslim world.

This has led some Tehran pundits to speculate that the US and Israel intend to artificially inflate the Iran nuclear crisis this autumn to deflect attention from the Palestinian issue. A problem with this approach is that it may diminish or even completely erase the areas of shared interests between the US and Iran, above all in Iraq and Afghanistan, where both Washington and Tehran back the same political horses.

[...]

Washington and Tehran could turn the current crisis in their relations into an opportunity for detente and perhaps even rapprochement, indeed so much was hinted recently by Iran's former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; a US nod to the recent Russian "step by step" proposal to resolve the Iran nuclear crisis is also called for.

A timely catalyst may come in the form of the release of the two American hikers in Iran's custody, in which case a measure of good would be generated on the eve of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's United Nations visit in September. In that case, the US may be forced to dangle carrots instead of sticks and thus show that goodwill begets goodwill.

For now, however, there is virtually no sign of any American goodwill toward Iran, only animosity. Another clue to the tone of engagement is the delisting of the Iranian group, Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), from the US list of terrorist groups, which will be decided on in the next few weeks. This is bound to heighten tensions as Tehran abhors the US protection of the MEK's Camp Ashraf inside Iraq.

The MEK's delisting is a particularly sensitive issue for Iran's leaders, who blame the group for the murder of many of the regime's top officials and as a result this will have a disproportionate impact in sowing the seeds of distrust between the two sides.

[Agnimitra]

NYTimes Op-Ed Contributor AVI JORISCH does another hatchet job on Iran:
To Punish Iran, Seize Its Embassy

[Agnimitra]

Iraq moving against Mojahedin e Khalq at Iran's behest...
Iran's PressTV: Iraq orders MKO to return occupied land

An Iraqi court has mandated the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO) to return thousands of hectares of land that the terrorist group occupied to set up its military base in eastern Iraq.

Sheikh Ali al-Zahiri, head of the support council of the Iraqi city of Khalis, said on Tuesday that the Diyala Province court has ordered the terrorist group to return 5,000 hectares of land inside Camp Ashraf, where the MKO terrorists are located, to the original Iraqi owners, IRIB reported.

The outlawed MKO fled to Iraq in the 1980s, where it enjoyed the support of executed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and set up Camp Ashraf in the northeastern town of Khalis, Diyala.

The court ruling also required the MKO to pay compensation to 150 Iraqi families for the terrorist group's illegitimate use of the land over the past three decades.

The development comes as hundreds of Diyala residents staged a demonstration last Tuesday, calling for the expulsion of the MKO elements in Iraq. The Iraqis also demanded the return of more than 36,000 hectares of their land occupied by the notorious terrorist organization.

The MKO -- listed as a terrorist organization by much of the international community -- has committed numerous terrorist acts against Iranian officials and civilians as well as the people of Iraq.

The MKO cooperated with Saddam in the massacres of Iraqi Kurds and in suppressing the 1991 uprisings in southern Iraq.

Since Saddam was deposed in 2003, the Iraqi government has set numerous deadlines for the terrorist group to leave the country but the MKO has managed to maintain its base with US support.