Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 05, 2011

[menon s]

INMHO , This region will have peace if and only if the Pakistani army is neutered and brought under military control. Any action that India needs to take in its bilateral relationship with Pakistan should be on that platform.
Im all for trade with Pakistan, as long as it does not benefit the Army and the RAPE class.

[Lisa]

Pakiland is a barely 150 Billion dollar economy . At the most what would be the market size for Indian products if MFN status is granted ? Besides Indian companies are selling in TSP indirectly and making profit. The loser is the mango Paki who has to pay a higher price . Why do we care? There is no way we should relieve them from their economic stress . Besides why do you want to open Indian market towards Paki agro goods. I cant imagine eating rice made in TSP.

We firstly need to make up our minds as what our goal is. Pakistani
reformation is a dead cat and any one discussing trade with pakistan is as
good as one installing an IV drip into that corpse.

In my mind, conflict is a very serious matter and not to be entered into
lightly but with the most serious gravity. Conflict is contrary to everyone's
interest but if all negotiations have failed, and they have to all purposes
with pakistan in that for them conflict is a state policy, then one must
resolve such conflict not with the enemy's defeat, but by their destruction.

Conflict has may faces and trade is one of them and one must use it to
that purpose, ie how do we extract maximum cost from pakistan for the
lowest cost to India.

Firstly, India is without a doubt due to the economies of scale the lowest
cost manufacturer across a wide range of goods and we must endeavour
to deny pakistan access to any of these savings. Anyone who wants to
make a cut in Dubai, East Africa, etc. is OK by me as long as the end
product is more expensive when its landed in pakistan rather than cross
border trade which will give access to cheap Indian merchandise. As
already said any saving will be ultimately used against us.

Secondly, large multinationals should be 'discouraged' from selling into
Pakistan as it may affect their subsidiary operations in India, e.g.we say to
Honda that they have to choose between investing and selling in India or in
Pakistan.. Sure pakistanis can still buy Hondas in Dubai but they will
COST MORE. Nett cost to India $0.00

P.S. Sanctions against pakistan, yeah sure I remember all the sanctions
after Mumbai incident.

[Suppiah]

RajeshA, good point. On top of that, we have to find ways to encourage the Pakrich to keep their funds here and spend it here. Instead of carting it back home. Increasing Islamic fundoos in TSP will actually enable that. While Pakis may have wet dreams about being arap race (at least on the paternal side ), when they look at themselves in the mirror they know who they are. They can spend it on luxury stuff here and some other halal sins they can't do back home. The really high end ones can buy up apartments in Mumbai and be seen with small time Bollywood stars moonlighting on the side.

This should be a unwritten condition imposed before buying from them...

Oh BTW Shiv saar, I see your point on dangers of being Unkils paid assassin. However, if we have to confront TSP one day in aar-paar ki ladai, and take all the risks that go with, as appears increasingly likely, might as well get paid for it.

[Lisa]

The American failure with India is a perfect example of why American sanctions failed on Cuba, NoKo and Iran and will also fail with Pakistan. One of my major rants in the last thread was the burqa of lies we were hiding under by which we imagined that the US was somehow being very effective in Pakistan while India was being ineffective. Ultimately nothing is very effective against Pakistan. Nothing can be effective against 175 million people. Even their own (so called) government is ineffective. Everything is haywire. Everything is chaotic and unpredictable beyond small steps and short time spans.

Solutions, or the lack of solutions become more evident to us if we do not fool ourselves into thinking that anyone is "effective" in controlling Pakistan's course.

If American sanctions have failed, why is it that the very first item of
discussion Cuba, NoKo and Iran have in any international fora is how to
remove them?

Let me give you an example, North Korea is doing so well that they were
left begging, I repeat begging for the unfreezing of a 25 million dollar bank
account in Macao. I personally know many individual here that are
personally worth more!

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US_Mull ... s_999.html

[RajeshA]

INMHO , This region will have peace if and only if the Pakistani army is neutered and brought under military control. Any action that India needs to take in its bilateral relationship with Pakistan should be on that platform.
Im all for trade with Pakistan, as long as it does not benefit the Army and the RAPE class.

Well actually doing business with Pakistan is going to help exactly this strata of Pakistani society.

Pakistan is not allowing Indian goods any transit facility through to Afghanistan. But now they say they will allow MFN status for India. What does that mean?

Muslim groups were known for making money by controlling the trade routes between East and West. This seems to be the wisdom Pakistan has got after all its other business models are going bust. Obviously Pakistanis want to be the middle-men who want to sell Indian goods to Central Asia. They want to control the trade, and make a nice commission on all the trade.

India would be making money producing those goods, while Pakistan will make a commission on selling them. That seems to be the model India and Pakistan have agreed to.

Of course we have to arrange for an alternative direct way to Central Asia, and I have been pleading on digging one through Southern Sindh (Muhajirstan), Baluchistan, Afghanistan and onward.

However the question is: whether we should stop our trade with Central Asia as it involves the Pakistani establishment making a killing by it?

I say, as long as we don't have an alternate route, we keep this one. However we don't make ourselves dependent on any pipelines passing through Pakistani territory. In the mean time we let US break Pakistan by separating Baluchistan from it.

[abhijitm]

We are not going to get into any military war with pakistan, who is our enemy. Then economic war is the second best option to bring down this notorious nation. I say even if India earns 10 vs 1 for pakistan, still don't trade. Whatever they will get from India will be lot cheaper than import from other countries.

My worry is looking at current world economic disaster many indian entrepreneurs will see cross border trades as more viable solution. 200 mil of the similar consumer need base is a very attractive market.

[abhijitm]

Also trade with pakis means more visas to them. S!ht is this worth a trouble for couple of bucks?

[abhijitm]

And it is good if the Zamindars employ a bigger security detail for themselves, because since the feudals are dependent on their trade with India, they have a vested interest that relations remain good and do not break off, so they would not want to share their money with those who plant bombs in India if they can help it, so a big a security force of their own helps them resist pressure to pay to Jihadi groups. Of course one cannot discount that Zamindars would not be paying Jihadis at all. But even there, through such payments Zamindars may be able to bring down their blood lust to attack targets across the border in India. Moreover the private army of these feudals can be indirectly used by India as well for our operations in Pakistan through the Zamindars.

pakistan has not shown the urgency of reconciliation with India. They are not showing sign of being mellowed down. Your plan might get turned into a wishful thinking. Remember even in floods how they reacted over Indian help? Soon our trade with them will become their birthright. And then the vicious cycle starts. They gather their resources then attack us, we pretend to stop trade for some time. Restart again. Same thing is happening with the talks. Why add trade also in it? Lets maintain status quo. At least we will have some carrot to show them.

Also, irrespective of what Zamindar's wish Army who controls the foreign relation. Until this evil is tamed I think there is no hope of pakistan stopping support to terrorism directed towards us.

When entire world is kicking them why should we give paki a slightest of lifeline? Even we get some benefit out of it...

[abhishek_sharma]

Buy Aspirin

[SSridhar]

This seems to be the wisdom Pakistan has got after all its other business models are going bust. Obviously Pakistanis want to be the middle-men who want to sell Indian goods to Central Asia. They want to control the trade, and make a nice commission on all the trade.

Rajesh, this approach of Pakistan is at least a decade old. IIRC, it was Musharraf who stated this objective of becoming a trading nation in circa 2001. He sold IPI to Pakistanis on that basis. Of course, he was not for liberalizing all other trades from India. He backed out when Reliance offered diesel, preferring to buy much costlier diesel from West Asia instead as usual. He preferred IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) 'peace pipeline' because that would place Pakistan at an advantageous position to turn the tap off after Indian enterprises had committed to the Iranian gas. That could be disastrous (as the current Reliance KG-D6 fiasco shows) and that was the kind of lever that Pakistan wanted. While he wanted the Iranian & Turkmenistan gas to flow to India earning for him sizeable transit fee (TSP demanded exorbitant rates), he was not willing to let other types of trade (even one way) and he forbade any type of India-Afghanistan trade at all (even one way from Afghanistan to India). The MFN status would not allow us to use Pakistan as a transit point for trade with third-party countries. That may have to be through a separate set of treaties.

India has no control over trade with Pakistan once MFN happens. Indian businessmen would export if the price was profitable and as Pakistan moves away from 'positive list' to a negative list of goods. This is normal. It is in Pakistan's hands to make this announcement, not India's. Pakistan is deterred by the incongruity of the term 'MFN' as applied to India. Already, India has accorded MFN status to Pakistan for almost a decade now and yet Pakistan's exports to India are minimal. In order to obfuscate its own inability (or even unwillingness) to export anything substantial, Pakistan claims that it is India's invisible trade barriers that stop its trade.

Anyway, I have three major concerns with trading with Pakistan. One is that Indian political leaders and bureaucracy must not think that 'trade' could somehow make Pakistan behave more reasonably with us. That would be a fallacy simply because Pakistan is an irrational state and continues to treat us as 'Enemy No 1' and wants to hurt us in every way. Both the 'good' and the 'bad' Taliban, waiting in the wings to assume power, would want this even more. Secondly, I do not think we can use trade as a lever against Pakistan. Pakistan wants to keep in its trading hands strategic products like gas while it wants to import from India non-strategic products. Of course, onions and tomatoes can also create riots but they can be easily imported from elsewhere, unlike gas. Besides, Pakistan can easily turn around and expose Indian cunning if India decides to restrict exports. While Pakistani gas pipelines can be sabotaged and blame laid at the feet of the Balochis or bad Taliban, India can be hauled to WTO for violation, by Pakistan. Thirdly, I would welcome trade if GoI would use that as a policy instrument to safeguard India from Pakistan. I am yet doubtful that we have such holistic thinking on Pakistan in place. Various ministries are approaching Pakistan in a piecemeal fashion. We have not yet determined on what to do with Pakistan or how to deal with it.

[darshhan]

If US is really planning to snatch the Pak nukes, would they release the plan ahead ? It can only be snatched by surprise and why would they release it ahead. Me thinks this is only to put pressure on Pak to toe the US line.

Siddharth ji , There are two ways to launch a surprise attack against any enemy.The traditional way is to hide your intentions and keep your preparation secret.In todays world this is a very difficult proposition because omnipresent media , internet , cable tv etc.So the Americans(infact their intelligence agencies) have devised a new way to enable them to surprise the enemy.Now they just increase the noise which means such kind of reports that US is preparing for more SF raids inside Pakistan will continue to appear in media.After some time no one will take those reports seriously.Hence when the US takes such action in future pakis will still be surprised.

In fact you must have heard the story of the boy who used to shout wolf frequently without any cause.The villagers always used to rush to his help but when they never found anything , after some time they refused to heed his call.One fine day the wolf actually came and ate up the boy and no villager was there to help.

Also this is not the first time that such reports have been published in media.Some years back too we had read that US is preparing a suoer secret unit to snatch paki nukes.

Now US might or might not have this capability but these kind of reports do help in one thing.Raising the blood pressure of Paki Army high command which is definitely not a bad thing.

[SSridhar]

Faiz's Letter from Jail

The other evening I switched on the Radio to listen to some Indian music from Delhi (what our own Radio calls music is no more than a collection of amateur screechings because real talent like Rafiq, Pukhraj, and Anwar etc: seems to be banned) and do you know what I got? You can never guess. Yehudi Menuhin, perhaps the greatest violinist of all times, playing Bach and Pagannini in the auditorium of the Indian Film Festival. It made me angry and jealous and sad when I thought about it later. This country is now nearly five years old and in five years we have not given the people one real exhibition of anything of beauty, of culture, of ennobling pleasure. And yet there has been no dearth of 'tamashas'. But all that we can think of is to collect some silly old grey-beards from all over the world, make them talk a lot of bilge that no one cares a damn farthing about, give a few people an opportunity for lots of eating and lots of shouting and then forget all about it. India may be a bigger country but culture is not a matter of size but of the ways of living and thinking, and why should the people of this country not be given a chance at least to look at culture even if they can't live in it.

The above was the state of Islamization within barely five years after Independence. Zia should not be blamed for everything. The country had gone far too much into this nastiness which Zia only formalized.

[RajeshA]

This seems to be the wisdom Pakistan has got after all its other business models are going bust. Obviously Pakistanis want to be the middle-men who want to sell Indian goods to Central Asia. They want to control the trade, and make a nice commission on all the trade.

Rajesh, this approach of Pakistan is at least a decade old. IIRC, it was Musharraf who stated this objective of becoming a trading nation in circa 2001. He sold IPI to Pakistanis on that basis. Of course, he was not for liberalizing all other trades from India. He backed out when Reliance offered diesel, preferring to buy much costlier diesel from West Asia instead as usual. He preferred IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) 'peace pipeline' because that would place Pakistan at an advantageous position to turn the tap off after Indian enterprises had committed to the Iranian gas. That could be disastrous (as the current Reliance KG-D6 fiasco shows) and that was the kind of lever that Pakistan wanted. While he wanted the Iranian & Turkmenistan gas to flow to India earning for him sizeable transit fee (TSP demanded exorbitant rates), he was not willing to let other types of trade (even one way) and he forbade any type of India-Afghanistan trade at all (even one way from Afghanistan to India). The MFN status would not allow us to use Pakistan as a transit point for trade with third-party countries. That may have to be through a separate set of treaties.

SSridhar garu,

IMHO, the novelty would be in making commissions off the sale of products of one's enemies. The smugglers who are doing this across the border, or the merchants who do this over Dubai have of course long appreciated the value of doing so, but it is a novelty that the Pakistani state is considering jumping on that bandwagon - selling Indian goods.

The case with pipelines was of course to develop political leverage over India and use it for blackmail. With re-export of Indian goods through Pakistan, that is not at stake. They can't blackmail India with that.

India has no control over trade with Pakistan once MFN happens. Indian businessmen would export if the price was profitable and as Pakistan moves away from 'positive list' to a negative list of goods. This is normal. It is in Pakistan's hands to make this announcement, not India's. Pakistan is deterred by the incongruity of the term 'MFN' as applied to India. Already, India has accorded MFN status to Pakistan for almost a decade now and yet Pakistan's exports to India are minimal. In order to obfuscate its own inability (or even unwillingness) to export anything substantial, Pakistan claims that it is India's invisible trade barriers that stop its trade.

They have probably understood that brooding over the nomenclature of Most-favored Nation (MFN) is not really worth it. If they can let Raymond Davis go, they can also let MFN status for India.

Anyway, I have three major concerns with trading with Pakistan. One is that Indian political leaders and bureaucracy must not think that 'trade' could somehow make Pakistan behave more reasonably with us. That would be a fallacy simply because Pakistan is an irrational state and continues to treat us as 'Enemy No 1' and wants to hurt us in every way. Both the 'good' and the 'bad' Taliban, waiting in the wings to assume power, would want this even more.

I believe, the concept of trading and still remaining strategic rivals and even enemies has become clear, with the example of China and the discrepancy of its commercial relationships and its political relationships with both USA and India.

I can only hope that these lessons are not ignored.

Secondly, I do not think we can use trade as a lever against Pakistan. Pakistan wants to keep in its trading hands strategic products like gas while it wants to import from India non-strategic products. Of course, onions and tomatoes can also create riots but they can be easily imported from elsewhere, unlike gas. Besides, Pakistan can easily turn around and expose Indian cunning if India decides to restrict exports. While Pakistani gas pipelines can be sabotaged and blame laid at the feet of the Balochis or bad Taliban, India can be hauled to WTO for violation, by Pakistan.

Actually I don't want pipelines to be on the table at all.

The levers against Pakistan would not be at the level of country to country relations, but there would be many a businessmen from the strata of establishment, feudals and RAPE who would depend on their business with India, both for having a market for their agricultural produce as well as resellers for Indian goods in Central Asia. Any disruption in this trade due to political and military tensions would disrupt this economy, and they will suffer.

AFAIK, WTO makes some leeway when two countries are in war, or in semi-war, but I may be wrong.

Thirdly, I would welcome trade if GoI would use that as a policy instrument to safeguard India from Pakistan. I am yet doubtful that we have such holistic thinking on Pakistan in place. Various ministries are approaching Pakistan in a piecemeal fashion. We have not yet determined on what to do with Pakistan or how to deal with it.

Trade with Pakistan should not detract us from the need to get rid of this country and to break it up.

[RajeshA]

And it is good if the Zamindars employ a bigger security detail for themselves, because since the feudals are dependent on their trade with India, they have a vested interest that relations remain good and do not break off, so they would not want to share their money with those who plant bombs in India if they can help it, so a big a security force of their own helps them resist pressure to pay to Jihadi groups. Of course one cannot discount that Zamindars would not be paying Jihadis at all. But even there, through such payments Zamindars may be able to bring down their blood lust to attack targets across the border in India. Moreover the private army of these feudals can be indirectly used by India as well for our operations in Pakistan through the Zamindars.

pakistan has not shown the urgency of reconciliation with India. They are not showing sign of being mellowed down. Your plan might get turned into a wishful thinking. Remember even in floods how they reacted over Indian help? Soon our trade with them will become their birthright. And then the vicious cycle starts. They gather their resources then attack us, we pretend to stop trade for some time. Restart again. Same thing is happening with the talks. Why add trade also in it? Lets maintain status quo. At least we will have some carrot to show them.

abhijitm ji,

if they are giving India MFN status and willing to increase trade, then they have relented, which does not mean they are our friends now. They have just decided to use their brains for a second rather than their staying mounted on their echandee.

We need many different levers over Pakistan, and many vectors of attack, to wage a successful campaign for its break-up.

Also, irrespective of what Zamindar's wish Army who controls the foreign relation. Until this evil is tamed I think there is no hope of pakistan stopping support to terrorism directed towards us.

Pakistan is in a transition of fragmentation, and we should already start preparing ourselves for a period when the whole authority breaks down, and feudal warlords and Taliban commanders rule the scene.

When entire world is kicking them why should we give paki a slightest of lifeline? Even we get some benefit out of it...

I wrote a theory, why GoI is giving them a lifeline when everybody is kicking them.

[habal]

India govt is a mercantile govt. I do not think they will refuse the offer of trade access with Pakistan. But it is prudent that if Pakistan offers MFN or positive list or whatever right now. It ought to be rightly refused for now is not the time to give them concessions. Firstly, their offering trade concessions could be merely a foreign policy cover for support of increased terrorist activity. Since the true nature of Pakistan is a known factor, their main attempt in foreign policy arena is to build alibis. So on one hand they promote terrorism and on another there is the official cover available to sell in ROTW that they want to promote trade and normalizing relations only.

Secondly if they are actually hurting from shortages and inflation, let them be hurt. Why lessen their pain.

[sanjeevpunj]

India will have to take over the governance of Pakistan someday, these dimwits cannot handle homegrown terror, its their own creation,we need to install an Indian controlled government in that region,if we can prove ourselves militarily capable of that. This will solve the conflict in Asia forever, then, only China will remain a sore thumb sticking out in Asia.

[habal]

the Indian leadership is a shrivelled, mercantile body who currently work through consensus. There is no single leader who can take over the challenge to provide governance to Pakistan or to prepare the groundwork for it. It seems that the top echelons of this corporate body are more interested in controlling the Indian population by treating them as a feedstock and taxing & penalizing them to such a level that they are left with very little resolve to protest or to reverse status-quo.

there is no pathbreaking thought-process at work here. Or to secure the nation's future through making calculated geo-strategic moves like securing access to central asia or Iran and reducing fuel burden and promoting growth. That is what makes it so easy for the current incumbant to simply toe the US line on foreign policy and pluck low hanging fruit like taxing the Indian republic to a slow, anemic death.

So let us talk about it when a suitable leadership takes charge. Else it is a simple waste of time to discuss scenarios, ofcourse there are many possibilities and a multitude of scenarios but no visionary leadership to bring it to fruition and sadly none visible on the horizon as well.

[menon s]

Pakthoon Nationalism and the break up of Pakistan.
i hope this was not posted before, http://newsgram.com/2011/04/is-pakistan ... ssolution/

Here is the historic pattern previously alluded to. Whenever there was a weak state in the Punjab region, it has fallen before invaders from the northwest. This was the case when it was invaded by Darius, Muhammad of Ghazni, Timur, Babar and Nadir Shah. On the other hand, whenever the Punjab was part of a powerful state, it has turned back the invader. This is what happened when the Greeks, the Huns and Afghans in the time of Ranjit Singh tried to invade the planes. (Incidentally, history books are wrong in claiming that Alexander was victorious. It was as much a disaster as Napoleon’s march on Moscow. This is clear from early accounts. But British controlled textbooks presented it otherwise, to emphasize European superiority. The correct perspective was provided by the great Russian general Marshal Zukhov. Alexander’s troops mutinied, and he himself died a year later broken in health and spirit.)
Saving Punjab is as much India’s responsibility as it is Pakistan’s. India cannot let these invading forces cross the Indus and turn West Punjab into a wasteland. The only way for Punjab to survive is to let the frontier be frontier and rejoin India— its natural home. But is the Punjabi ruling elite capable of such vision? As one Pakistani (Punjabi) journalist told Kaplan, “We have never defined ourselves in our own right — only in relation to India. That is our tragedy.”

This attitude represents a historic truth: Punjab is India or it is happy hunting ground for the frontier tribes. If the Punjabis do not cure themselves of their hatred, it may soon lead to an even greater tragedy— of Afghanistan and the frontiers consuming Pakistan itself. Punjabis should see for themselves that Pakistan is a fantasy that died the day Bangladesh broke away. They should also recognize that the Punjabis never asked for Pakistan; the people who planted that poison seed remained in India. And the same people — of the Deoband School of Lucknow — planted also the poison seed that grew to be Taliban. And Jinnah, not a Punjabi, defrauded them by holding up a vision that had no chance of being realized.

[sanjeevpunj]

@Habal ji, True and really disheartening,specially when we keep reading about jawans being killed at the border.GOI has lost focus, a change must come.

[RajeshA]

So let us talk about it when a suitable leadership takes charge. Else it is a simple waste of time to discuss scenarios, ofcourse there are many possibilities and a multitude of scenarios but no visionary leadership to bring it to fruition and sadly none visible on the horizon as well.

Lets pack up BRF then and switch off the lights on our way out.

[shiv]

The mere fact that "larger empires have fallen like a pack of cards" means nothing. Zilch. Smaller empires have stood up and are still defiant. If I my maidservant sleeps with me it does not mean that Angelia Joile will fall in love with me or vice versa. There is zero connection between "larger empires falling" and Pakistan. A strawman argument if ever I saw one.

Does not mean that a better policy in the future by either will not "fix" the Pak problem for good.

You tell me about the "better policy" to "fix" Pak. I am willing to listen to anyone.

[shiv]

Let me give you an example, North Korea is doing so well that they were
left begging, I repeat begging for the unfreezing of a 25 million dollar bank
account in Macao. I personally know many individual here that are
personally worth more!

Lisa people who live in wealthy countries are constantly told that poor countries are suffering. So it becomes easy to be a rich man somewhere and imagine NoKo to be an bad shape "They are begging" ha ha ha

In my view there is a serious problem with this viewpoint. Countries are not individuals - so when you have a few individuals controlling a country - those individuals can become more and more and more dangerous even as their countrymen become poorer and more screwed up. The fact that Koerans (North) are poor and hungry does not matter to anyone - but yet Korea remains as a dangerous nation. The fact that one man has over 25 mill USD is just a rationalization -a piskological mental massage to say "Korea is screwed up"

We on BRF spend a lot of time talking that way bout Pakistan. Pakistan's screwed up economy and its poverty make us all happy and we all cheer when Pakis die or kill each other. But the Paki army is nearly immune to all this they are rich - the average jernail is richer than you or me and many Paki individuals are worth more than that measly 25 million. No matter how bad things are in Pakistan or North Korea - both countries are carrying on surviving and being a danger and no country in the world is able to do much about it in a reasonable time span. Both failing nations have an inherent strength by virtue of their failure where the lives of their people matter less and less and the leaders are cocooned by a protective layer of millions of indoctrinated hungry people who do not care if they die.

No matter how happy we feel about screwed up Pakis or North Koreans - both failed nations remain an insoluble problem. Everyone has clever ideas about what to do. But no one has succeeded in actually doing anything much

[darshhan]

^^Shivji , In a sense even the US is begging.I hate to say it but it is China and other countries which are financing the american spending.Now I do admire Americans and their can do spirit but the truth will always remain the truth.

[Sri]

SS Sir, may I very humbly disagree on you on the trade with Pakistan part. And I am taking this liberty not because I have a different insight on Pakistan than yours but I have different take on free trade per se.

As long as the trade is beneficial to us, it is a good idea. Now if it's beneficial to only us and not Pakistan then also it's a good idea. And if it is beneficial to only Pakistan and not India, then it's a bad idea.

Basically Indian trade is driven by entrepreneurial drive of it's people. Government does provide a framework in which we the Indian business community has to operate but Government doesn't sign the deals. There is a massive ready market out there that we are not able to tap into. It's a low lying apple thats just waiting to be plucked.

In my mind (so is the case with Pakistanis) there is no doubt that any trade with Pakistan will result in massive balance of payment issue in our favor. From Nokia handsets made in chennai (or the dear old Enfield )to Nano to Bajaj bikes to dabur products it just increases the market size by another 18 cr people, with no extra cost on Advertising (as the promotions can run on both sides of border) and brand building. All you have to do is to establish logistics, no capital expenditure is required. I am sure that there are not many Indian businesses who will invest in long term. No one invests in Pakistan for long term not even Pakistanis.

Same advantages Pakistan has in India but not in the same way. How many people you know who watch GEO network or who know what Boom Boom is? They certainly have some products, fruits, vegetable and meat produce that are competitive in India, but they are nearly not as likely to make a dent in the surplus we might end up creating.

Faced with this Pakistan decided no to sell Gas to us... then so be it. Do not sign a contract where reliability is not guaranteed. Oil and Gas industry is riddled with such problems all over the world. There are third party Guarantors who plug this gap. Say Pakistan decides to sell gas from Baluchistan to India, very well. Do not sign a contract with them, sign it with CONOCO PHILLIP, who are contractually obligated to replace the gas by other sources in case Pakistan turns the taps off. There are very many such examples. Remember India walked out of IPI not because of Pakistan but because of 2 reasons. Both Iran and Pakistan wanted almost exclusive financing by India without giving the benefit price lock in. Rather India had agreed to finance the deal also but walked out when Iranians wanted to sell the gas on prevalent global rate. It was a bad deal. Second of course being the US lollipop in terms of Civil nuclear deal in return for India's walking out of the IPI deal.

Also there has been an argument that why should we throw in a lifeline to the pures when the whole world is screwing them. By no means trade with India is a lifeline for them. It becomes a lifeline only when Indian business proves foolish enough to construct a 25 mn car capacity factory in Peshwar. Then we have to defend our investment. I am sure there aren't many looking for it.

Trade but don't invest.

[shiv]

^^Shivji , In a sense even the US is begging.I hate to say it but it is China and other countries which are financing the american spending.Now I do admire Americans and their can do spirit but the truth will always remain the truth.

Darshan a lot of people get so upset and angry when America's weakness wrt Pakistan is pointed out they stop thinking and start shouting. The fact that even the USA finds itself begging Pakistan and keeping its fingers crossed is an indicator of how difficult the Pakistan problem is. It is not meant to mock the USA although some people react as if they take it that way.

I believe that on BRF as a collective, we had convinced ourselves to believe a fairy story.

In that fairy story Pakistan was a problem that India could easily solve if only India acted strong and bold like China and the USA. In this fairy story China and the USA were given magical strengths which we believed would enable them to just handle Pakistan in a jiffy if they desired.

Reality is not a bedtime fairy story. In the fairy story China and the USA have magical powers, In reality they don't. Both China and the USA have no answers for Pakistan other than continuing to beg and mollycoddle and hope for the best. This is not because they are weak or stupid. It is because Pakistan now poses a formidable challenge. Pakistan is not a problem that can be solved by India, china or the USA individually. Collectively it is possible that all three countries may be able to contain and handle the fallout of a failed Pakistan with 175 million people, largely uneducated, largely unemployed, with access to 15 million automatic weapons and the possibility that there are nuclear bombs somewhere there in the mix. This is enough to make any leader shit in his pants.

We spend a lot of time on casual timepass and sometimes do not apply our minds seriously. Forget India. Forget MMS. Imagine that a Pakistani nuke takes out a US base in say Bagram what would Obama do? Whatever he does would be costly for the US and costly for the world and it is unlikely that the world will ever be the same again. So the US is not happy about what is happening in Pakistan. China is not happy either - and look at the weak language used by the Chinese about Pakistan after two spectacular attacks. India has eminent company in being weak.

If we could wean away 20 million, 30 miliion, 50 milion or 75milion people from the path of confrontation and war to look for living peacefully it would be a partial victory. Killing them is no solution. The Pakistan army is losing control. Control will get handed to multiple jihadi leaders and Pakistan will be in a flux. That flux has already begun and everyone is actually watching all this unfold in a horrified fashion. No one, not the US, not China and not India actually knows exactly how things wil unfold. Pakistan has no easy solution. Things have moved very fast and a lot of people who talk of clever or violent "solutions" for Pakistan are too late. Those were thoughts that should have been had 30 years ago.

[anupmisra]

India will have to take over the governance of Pakistan someday, these dimwits cannot handle homegrown terror, its their own creation,we need to install an Indian controlled government in that region,if we can prove ourselves militarily capable of that.

Sanjeev, for the sake of our children and our children's children, I hope and pray to god that the above never happens. I sure hope that you said this in jest.

[darshhan]

Shiv ji , You are absolutely right.The problem with our people including those on BRF is that on issues concerning Pakistan we become emotional and hence lose our objectivity.We desperately want to see Pakistan getting its ass kicked and because India is unable to do so , we try to convince ourselves that atleast US/China is doing so.But as you rightly said US and China are themselves as helpless as India is when it comes to Pakistan.

The truth is that US has hardly any control over Pakistani affairs as of now.The same is true for China as well.

[gakakkad]

^^^ besides 200 million people cannot be killed by any known manner that is risk free , cost effective and feasible . Even 1000 1 MT warheads can not probably wipe out entire Paki population. (120 square km damage /warhead , areas of TSP = 650,000 SQ KM). Imagine the global radiation exposure by so many bombs in a single country. Also imagine the seismic damage to the rest of the world. The magnetic poles could shift . There could be a "nuclear winter". No one understand to a complete extent as to what could happen. TSP surely is not a big enough threat to warrant such risky desperate measures . Its just our pure bad luck that we have them as neighbours.

[SSridhar]

SS Sir, may I very humbly disagree on you on the trade with Pakistan part. And I am taking this liberty not because I have a different insight on Pakistan than yours but I have different take on free trade per se.

Sri, knowing you, I know what you mean. I am not against trade per se but there are certain imperatives as I made in the last para of my earlier post. You again reinforced my point with the bolded part above. I would like GoI *not* to divorce 'Pakistan' from 'trade' when it formulates its trade policies. Trade has always been interlinked with geopolitical and geostrategic priorities of a nation. The Entities List of the US Administration and the most recent Chinese ban on export of rare earths are cases in point. It is my belief that 'free trade' has never been as 'free' as the term sounds. That is why I like what you state below.

As long as the trade is beneficial to us, it is a good idea. Now if it's beneficial to only us and not Pakistan then also it's a good idea. And if it is beneficial to only Pakistan and not India, then it's a bad idea.

The only problem that I see with the above is what we understand by the term 'beneficial'. Certainly, Indian businessmen and entrepreneurs are not going to trade with Pakistan if it was not beneficial to them or their companies, in terms of profits. Trade will naturally flow or stop. However, situations may develop when it may be at variance with our national interest. We have seen that when IT czars decry any strong action. My fear is that GoI does not seem to exhibit an integrated policy against Pakistan.

In my mind (so is the case with Pakistanis) there is no doubt that any trade with Pakistan will result in massive balance of payment issue in our favor. From Nokia handsets made in chennai (or the dear old Enfield )to Nano to Bajaj bikes to dabur products it just increases the market size by another 18 cr people, with no extra cost on Advertising (as the promotions can run on both sides of border) and brand building. All you have to do is to establish logistics, no capital expenditure is required. I am sure that there are not many Indian businesses who will invest in long term. No one invests in Pakistan for long term not even Pakistanis.

Precisely. India-Pakistan trade can be a massive win-win situation for both the countries. Most of what Pakistan wants, from tea to railway locomotives, can come from India at practically zero transportation cost and a lot cheaper too. Indian locomotives will work unlike the Chinese ones of a different gauge and the attendant hassles. I have been convinced for a long time that Pakistan can survive only if it does business with India, not otherwise. I am also convinced that the Pakistani situation has become so dire today that they find no alternative other than doing business with us. They may convert this necessity into a virtue by claiming as though they have suddenly eased on their enmity with us etc. but the truth is different.

They certainly have some products, fruits, vegetable and meat produce that are competitive in India, but they are nearly not as likely to make a dent in the surplus we might end up creating.

Perishable items are good enough only for areas just across the border. In terms of grains and cereals, Pakistan has been largely suffering from low productivity, increased demand. They may have no surplus to sell us. Cement is one item they have a lot because there is no construction activity worth the name there but they also have quality issues.

Also there has been an argument that why should we throw in a lifeline to the pures when the whole world is screwing them. By no means trade with India is a lifeline for them. It becomes a lifeline only when Indian business proves foolish enough to construct a 25 mn car capacity factory in Peshwar. Then we have to defend our investment. I am sure there aren't many looking for it.

Trade but don't invest.

I agree that investment in Pakistan would be a suicide and would remain so for a long time to come. The shrewd Indian businessmen would also not take such a decision. But, at this depressing state in which Pakistani economy is, cheaper imports (from India) could very well be a matter of life-and-death for them. They foresee funds drying up from the US (due to Pakistani perfidy plus the US economic woes plus the drawdown of US forces), the Chinese only invest in specific projects, KSA is utterly cold towards Pakistan these days, Japan is having its own miseries etc. Various trade concessions that they have sought from the US and the EU have so far come a cropper. Even if they get these concessions, their textile factories would not be able to exploit them because of lack of power and gas. They have no other worthwhile export, apart from terror. As the next best, they want to reduce their costs of import. So, in that sense this could be a lifeline.

[Suppiah]

Of course, once trade is normalised, we will be eternally grateful to them for 'allowing Bangalore IT to exploit its strength' as one jehadi terrorist pig in nutty nation put it.. after all bangalore IT is suffering from low demand and unemployment amongst techies..

[sanjeevpunj]

India will have to take over the governance of Pakistan someday, these dimwits cannot handle homegrown terror, its their own creation,we need to install an Indian controlled government in that region,if we can prove ourselves militarily capable of that.

Sanjeev, for the sake of our children and our children's children, I hope and pray to god that the above never happens. I sure hope that you said this in jest.

Anoop ji, me neither, that is the last thing India would actually want to do, even if it was very powerful and accepted worldwide, and I would be happy as long as our government manages to govern India well enough,and keep Pakis down, prevent them from attacking India all out. I totally feel that such a situation should never arise.What has prompted me to utter this is the continued failure of talks,failure of global pressure on them,in curbing their Jihadis.

[Brad Goodman]

tallel fliend is threatning the whore

China Threatens The ISI

China is demanding that Pakistan shut down the Uighur operations in Pakistan. That will be difficult because the Uighur terrorists are part of al Qaeda, Taliban and other terrorist organizations. Pakistan provides sanctuary for many of these groups, and does not want to fight them. Trying to destroy these terrorist groups would be difficult and time-consuming. Nevertheless, the ISI told China that the Uighurs would be taken care of. The ISI tells the U.S. similar lies, and the Chinese are waiting to see what happens, or not.

[Brad Goodman]

diggy having a verbal diaorrea again

‘Do Our Youth Want To See India Go The Pakistan Way?’

[A_Gupta]

http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/23 ... 96_oda.pdf (PDF)
Paper on remittances from Pakistanis abroad to Pakistan 2000-2008 time-period.
Did you know that the US became the largest source of remittances to Pakistan?

In 2000/01, the amount of remittances from Saudi Arabia was US$309.9 million and thereafter increased to US$1.25 billion. During the same period, the amount of remittances from the USA increased from US$73.3 million to US$1.72 billion.

[abhijitm]

Basically Indian trade is driven by entrepreneurial drive of it's people. Government does provide a framework in which we the Indian business community has to operate but Government doesn't sign the deals. There is a massive ready market out there that we are not able to tap into. It's a low lying apple thats just waiting to be plucked.

It wont be one way traffic. No country will allow other to rip off. Pakistan will make Indians to invest in pakistan if the trade is hugely imbalance. Trade with india is much needed lifeline for pakistani indistries. When US companies started opening up their business in India in early nineties everyone thought it is a rip off, we will be screwed. That didn't happened really. It didnt turn out to be one way traffic as it was feared those days. Today IBM, Accenture, Pepsi, Coca Cola, foreign automobile companies etc have helped create Indian jobs and small indistries. Those companies are making more money but so are Indians. Same logic will work when we start trade with Pakistan. It will be started in a smaller scale, harmless and joyful in our eyes. Slowly it will grow. To sustain it Indian companies will have to invest in pakistan. Some tech transfer will happen. The balance will still be tilted towards India. But then to create paki entrepreneurs one day we will have to open up higher education for paki students. WKK will join bandwagon of how india pakistan now becoming bhai-bhai. The money made with this trade will go to paki rabid anti-indian army elite. I don't have to tell how will they use this money. This idea of trade is like a snowball. Once you start rolling it gets bigger and unstoppable.

This is their lifeline. No country in the world is in better position of benefiting pakistan by trade than India. We are just across the border. We got everything they need. Although pakistan is a lucrative market for us we must stay away, for the sake of our future generation. Lets keep this fire away from our home. Lets not invite it.

[SBajwa]

sanjeevpunj wrote:
India will have to take over the governance of Pakistan someday, these dimwits cannot handle homegrown terror, its their own creation,we need to install an Indian controlled government in that region,if we can prove ourselves militarily capable of that.

Sanjeev, for the sake of our children and our children's children, I hope and pray to god that the above never happens. I sure hope that you said this in jest.

Let me remind you that Pakjabis are exactly like "Barking toothless Dogs" who are flashing the fake borrowed teeth. Pakjabis in their history have never ruled this area but for last 60 years due to foolishness of our 1920s-1960s generation.

The stark reality for people of Indic Dharma is that they have the following two separate routes available

1. Don't do anything and eventually in 50-200 years your next generations will all convert to Wahabi/Salafi and thus Pakistan as a state becomes part of India again.

or

2. Destroy the Pakistani armed forces and take over the de-facto control of Pakistan through a civilian government who is protectorate of India.

Whatever you do!! Pakistan will cease to exist in future.

[sanjeevpunj]

Abhijitm said .....This is their lifeline. No country in the world is in better position of benefiting pakistan by trade than India. We are just across the border. We got everything they need. Although pakistan is a lucrative market for us we must stay away, for the sake of our future generation. Lets keep this fire away from our home. Lets not invite it.

Right, Abhijit ji. Until Pakistan proves its a genuine democracy (in a hundred years from now even, I do not see that happening) we should not invite any trade pacts, they will only use it to further their strategical interests.

[SBajwa]

Talking about economics/trade in the TIRP thread. Let me remind again... that defense and economics go hand in hand.

universal law of the nature is

1. Due to increased economic activity you become prosperous and accumulate more wealth.
2. Due to accumulated wealth you attract rogues/thugs/bandits/thieves/smugglers/terrorists/etc.
3. To protect the accumulated wealth you must

a. Have adequate strength to protect all the wealth (no areas are left exposed)
b. Flash/Display the power from time to time so that rogues/thugs/bandits/thieves/smugglers/terrorists/ are kept at bay.

so for each percentage increased in GDP the defense expenditure must be increased by the same ratio.

There is no other country in the whole wide world that needs to look at its own history to see how from time to time its accumulated wealth has been looted and taken away.

Indian peninsula is so rich in land with rivers almost everywhere and very fertile with crops all year around. It is a place where the weather is so good that you don't need a house to live (you can sleep outside under a tree try that in Canada/USA). Then why the people who own this land are poor? because their each generation works hard and saves but due to ineffective government (defense) their wealth is destroyed. Economics and defense go hand in hand.

[sanjeevpunj]

Let me remind you that Pakjabis are exactly like "Barking toothless Dogs" who are flashing the fake borrowed teeth. Pakjabis in their history have never ruled this area but for last 60 years due to foolishness of our 1920s-1960s generation.
The stark reality for people of Indic Dharma is that they have the following two separate routes available

1. Don't do anything and eventually in 50-200 years your next generations will all convert to Wahabi/Salafi and thus Pakistan as a state becomes part of India again.

or

2. Destroy the Pakistani armed forces and take over the de-facto control of Pakistan through a civilian government who is protectorate of India.

Whatever you do!! Pakistan will cease to exist in future.

My vote for Option 2 only. But is our government capable of it at this juncture? Not at all. We need GOI to first stabilise India, develop a strong country not swayed by changes around it, and then we can expect GOI to extend a control over the neighbour. It will have to be through their own local leaders, and yes, the Pakistan Armed Forces have to be destroyed in toto, along with its proxy modules.Then, we can hope for peace to dawn in this region.

[brihaspati]

I don't think investments can be separated away from "trade". That question will crop up naturally and will be cropped up deliberately. Investments might be demanded on excuses of lack of appropriate infrastructure, and the pressure will also be kept up that any such investment if not "gifted" over entirely to Paki interests - is an attack on Paki sovereignty and Islam.

This is the same line that has been used for BD. In fact trade liberalization has taken place to a great extent with BD, and immediately the questions of investments cropped up - and exactly the opposition pressure I mention above also cropped up. In fact a sizeable section of the BD political class is now openly projecting their hope that using the Indian infrastructural investments for transit - they can now make BD the regional "hub" and do more "business" with "NE" - some even go to the extent of claiming that eventually this would help them in their long cherished ambitions of gaining the NE territories for themselves. I am even hearing "intellectuals" discussing the need for India to ignore "cross border" movement of "peoples" from BD into these areas. That economic interests must override the fear of "islamism".

The trade with Pak line - is dangerous exactly because we have congrez in power, and which is likely to continue in power as part of what appears to be a "global" understanding with the "west" for some time. There is a growing clamour for India - onlee - to do mucho mucho more to "integrate" both Islamist jihadlands on its two wings - by donating and gifting commercial prosperity as well as "basic inputs" of capital. The sop peddled is that with "trade" will come "mutual dependence" which will make "borders" and "Islamism" irrelevant - as the latter is supposed to be onlee a consequence of poverty [forget KSA or various extremely poor Gulf Islamic states and Malaysia which have not nurtured and exported Jihad more they got wealthy].

We never ever learn from past experiences. Trade with BD liberalized - and BD imports a lot from India and in fact there are market crises whenever imports of basic stuff from India even temporarily slows down.what has it led to - a huge trade deficit. What does that trade deficit lead to - clamour for investments and demands for trade-gap nullification. Such investments must however be almost in the form of gifts - as any such investor must always be treated as potentially anti-islamic and looking to subvert BD sovereignty.

The fact that one of the two major political groupings are bold enough in BD to openly root for NE independence from India as being beneficial for BD - and the transit if acceptable is acceptable onlee because that will help BD pull the NE states to itself as BD the real "centre" for the region - should speak volumes about the success of the "trade-oh-trade" refrain.

This exactly summarizes the attitudes of Islam dominant neighbours. Trade may help the Paki structure to survive, but it also helps its islamist infrastructure to survive. People are forgetting here - that the understanding by which Dawaists have taken over a large part of the state's responsibility is a crucial component of the current Paki state superstructure. Trade in pak is controlled by a very small elite network - whose top tier consists of not more than around 17-20 nodal families/clans - who are again in a tight copulative mode with top tier of the army. In between these two the Dawaists are the actual state - which bridges the state with the non-elite.

I can predict that any offer of trade liberalization will immediately raise two demands - of investments and the demand that such investments also be under complete control of Paki elite. Trade liberalization will onlee help the Dawaists continue in power with a breathing space. But none of the anti-India and anti-Hindu underlying forces will be weakened by trade.

Traders and mercantile interests from Indian side will of course look at their profits - and as they have done before in historical periods - at one point they will see "economic" interests must override "narrow" and "parochial" concerns of "nationalism". In fact they may then rediscover the "fundamentals" of "Hindu" philosophy [no not India then because India is diverse] as being "all humans equal onlee" and which onlee for those occasions represents India onlee - and sabotage any attempt from "nationalist" side to stop the protection of such Islamist/Jihadist/Paki use of trade links and trade covers.