Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 05, 2011

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 09 Aug 2011 13:43

Sanctions work to punish, but not to solve problems. The leaders are seldom affected by sanctions. Only a country whose leaders wish for their people to be happy will be affected by sanctions. Otherwise a wealthy oligarchy will corner the little wealth a nation has and use it for personal wealth and arms while the people starve. Because the people have no power or wealth they live a life of subsistence and are totally under control of he oligarchy and their army. If information is controlled then the people can be fed misinformation about how the entire world is against them. NoKo has these features, Pakistan has these features, Saddam's Iraq had these features. Cuba has some features like this

Saddam's Iraq needed two wars with a huge coalition of forces to take Saddam down. And that was after a decade of sanctions. Korea has been under sanctions for decades and no country can take it down. Cuba has been under sanctions for decades but keeps going. Pakisan has not even been under sanctions. It has been fed well. So even if sanctions affect Pakistan the hope that sanctions will eventually beat a stable system of impoverished information starved people led by a powerful oligarchy with an army is remote.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Aug 2011 13:47

Pakistan is a hard country if the objective is to control chaos. In fact even Afghanistan is a hard country if one wants to control chaos, especially one which can threaten with an insurgency within that chaos.

Sometimes high waves on the sea can seem pretty daunting, but some are able to surf the waves. If one does not take up the task of bringing order to the chaos, but rather simply contributing to that chaos in a way, which brings net benefit to oneself, then one does not need to fear chaos. A chaotic place is a perfect place for somebody with resources at hand and no values to boot, to achieve the maximum influence.

The more chaotic Pakistan gets, the easier it would be for USA and India to control some factions there, and facilitate war on other factions.

But if USA and India try to install a government, and do nation-building, then we will of course fail miserably.

The other way to deal with a chaotic country is to fragment it formally, and try to help those parts who are willing and capable of distancing themselves from the chaotic core, and bring order in their corner of the chaotic country. This is possible because the country may not be homogeneously chaotic. One can separate Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan Proper and bring order to those parts. That would be much easier.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 09 Aug 2011 14:04

The RPG only story is bullshit. I'm willing to bet my left nut that it was not RPGs alone. In due course, things will leak out. Not saying RPGs can't take down choppers, even rifles can in right circumstances. But this was something more. The silence is to determine the precise nature of the Paki hand. After that, it will be for the US to decide on what next. Either suck it in and grit teeth and carry on, like we do, or do what many believe uncle normally does. Either way, we will gain. And we have nothing additional to lose by Pakistan becoming the power that drove another super-power out of its neighbourhood.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 09 Aug 2011 14:06

As far as I can tell the US has influence only within the Pakistani army and that influence seems to be waning. the Pakistani army itself is not in full control.

Yet the USA has tried, and tried hard to keep funding and arming the Paki army in the hope that they can exert control on Pakistan. If the army goes, or slips out of US control, there is no one for the US to deal with. Of course the army will not slip out of control unless there is a colonels coup - but Pakistan is too chaotic at present to be absolutely sure. Pakistan has a history of "soft" coups that are not bloody. There may be a silent coup with a silent handover of the Paki army to a more overtly jihadi organization.

In my view such a "silent coup" will garner the support of many Islamists and the people of Pakistan but go anti-US. In fact signs of these are already apparent in the way Pakistani leaders have been cosying up to China in the last 2-3 months. In the meantime the attacks in Xinjiang indicate that not all jihadi factions are interested in Pakistan first agenda. Those are an indicator of the Pakistani army, even in its more ant-US avatar is still not fully in control.

Finally the army does not control Karachi at all. Karachi alone constitutes about 10% of the population of Pakistan. That makes Karachi alone the 60th most populated "country" in the world out of a total of 220 odd countries. Karachi's population fals a little behind Taiwan and Sri Lanka and matches the population of the Netherlands. Even the Pakistani navy has (acc to reports on BRF) "temporarily" left Karachi.

Neither the US nor India are talking about splitting Pakistan although I sincerely hope they are cooperating. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Need to see how much the USA will bribe and arm the Paki army with AMRAAMs and F-16s.

r_subramanian · Post by **r_subramanian** » 09 Aug 2011 15:03

India blocks Pakistan-born Usman Khawaja’s visa

Pakistan-born Australian batsman Usman Khawaja on Tuesday said he was being refused a visa into India for next month’s Champions League Twenty20 tournament because of his country of birth.
...

link

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 09 Aug 2011 15:17

Not meant to compare but I think that chinook suffered a similar fate as Abhimanyu in Mahabharata.Every possible thing which can go wrong went wrong. The crew were just slaughtered. These are the guys Americans referred as allies.Well done mate.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Aug 2011 15:30

Patel,much info has come out these days as to how the US and the Pakis covertly conducted terror ops in Afghanistan,assassinating local chiefs,etc.,forcing the then Najibullah govt, to invite the Soviets in.This is why Indira Gandhi never condemned the Soviets in public,because she and India knew the truth.The aim of the US/CIA /Pak during the Cold War was to incite the Islamic states within the USSR to revolt and this is why they created Islamic/Islamist terror during th Cold War,urged on by Gen Zia to attack India too,which has now become a Frankenstein monster that has bitten the US and its allies savagely with the attacks of 9/11,etc.This very same monster was turned by both nations,colluding against India for over two decades playing havoc in Kashmir and elsewhere.See the latest rvelations by the ULFA top boss,who said that the ISI helped them and actually dstroyed the movement by its own agenda.

What the US and the Pakis sowed they have reaped."A plague on both their houses" for their devilry against India.

More on the SEALs Paki missions and the "hit" on Osama:

Seals had intruded into Pakistan 12 times before Osama raid

Monitoring Desk
Monday, August 08, 2011

NEW YORK: The Abbottabad raid by US Navy Seals was not the first venture into Pakistan. The team had surreptitiously entered the country on ten to twelve previous occasions, the influential investigative magazine New Yorker said in an over 8,000-word story on the Abbottabad raid in its latest issue.

Most of those missions were forays into North and South Waziristan, where many military and intelligence analysts had thought that bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders were hiding. (Only one such operation—the September, 2008, raid of Angoor Ada, a village in South Waziristan—has been widely reported), the magazine said in its report written by Nicholas Schmidle.

Shortly after 11 o’clock on the night of May 1, two MH-60 Black Hawk helicopters lifted off from Jalalabad Air Field, in eastern Afghanistan, and embarked on a covert mission into Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden. Inside the aircraft were 23 Navy SEALs from Team Six, which is officially known as the Naval Special Warfare Development Group, or DEVGRU.

XCpt:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDe ... 1686&Cat=2

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Aug 2011 17:54

Pak fears attacks, moves warships out of Karachi

ISLAMABAD: Claiming there were "all time high security threats" , Pakistan navy has moved away its main battleships out of its Mehran naval base in Karachi to the Makran coast in Balochistan.

The navy sent its warships away from its main base in Karachi to Ormara in Balochistan as a "precautionary measure" after the 16-hour terrorist siege of its main naval airbase, PNS Mehran, on May 22, the Express Tribune newspaper quoted its sources as saying.

Retired Vice Admiral Tanvir Ahmed said golden rule in warfare is to disperse your assets in as many bases as possible

The safest of course, would be to sink their own ships before the Indian Navy got to them, no?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Aug 2011 18:04

chetak wrote:Pak fears attacks, moves warships out of Karachi
Retired Vice Admiral Tanvir Ahmed said golden rule in warfare is to disperse your assets in as many bases as possible

That's what they will do with the nukes too!

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 09 Aug 2011 18:38

habal wrote:
darshhan wrote: Making India a police state.That is exactly what Pakistan wants.Infact even Bharat verma has said that instead of dealing with pakistan in lieu of terrorism , we are losing our own freedoms gradually as India hurtles towards becoming a police state.Today every mall has a metal detector.Getting a new cell phone connection is a big headache.Pakistan has definitely succeeded in raising our costs.
what if this is the actual goal & Pakistan only a pretext. Curtailing civil liberties of commons ties in with a certain global agenda. There is one school of thought that believes that Pakistan will survive intact as long as all civil liberties of Indians are eventually curtailed and we become reduced to the level of vassals owned by our politicians & corporates as in US. After this goal is achieved Pakistan will either cease to matter or cease to exist. The main impact of 9/11 was not felt on Saudi Arabia; the country of origin of the hijackers but esp on native air passengers via TSA. They were checking diapers on 90 yr olds.

+1.Habal ji.You couldn't have been more right.Agree 100%.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 09 Aug 2011 19:13

RajeshA wrote:
The other way to deal with a chaotic country is to fragment it formally, and try to help those parts who are willing and capable of distancing themselves from the chaotic core, and bring order in their corner of the chaotic country. This is possible because the country may not be homogeneously chaotic. One can separate Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan Proper and bring order to those parts. That would be much easier.

RajeshA ji, I agree with much of your post.However I am not convinced about the above paragraph.Formal Separation of Baluchistan and Gilgit is easier said than done.Sure they will control some pockets but that is about it.Sorry to say this but a few thousand rag tag guerrillas armed with just kalashnikovs and RPGs is not going to cut it.They are no match for Pakistani army.Historically the bane of all insurgencies is armor and airpower.Until unless the baluch and gilgit Freedom fighters are provided with Manpads (stingers,iglas etc) and anti armor weapons to counter paki air and armor assets , they will never be able to match the Pakistani Army.If you remember even in 1980's , resistance against soviets started succeeding only when they were supplied with stingers(well known) and Milan anti armor missiles(not so well known). In addition these freedom fighters will also require training and coordination which is best provided by intelligence agencies such as CIA and unconventional warfare experts like Green berets.India also did the same in 1971 to Mukti Bahini.Although I seriously doubt if this unconventional warfare capability still exists in India especially wrt Balochistan and Gilgit.

USA has all the above capabilities but the question still remains.Does it have the will and guts to do so?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Aug 2011 19:41

darshan ji,

as you stated, this cannot be done by Baluchis and Gilgitians and Baltistanis alone. External help is critical to their endeavor.

Once the West creates a moral framework for a people to be liberated, it is often easier to help. As was in the case of East Timor, where a Muslim country was forced to let it go. East Timor declared independence from Portugal in 1975, and then it was invaded by Indonesia. Subsequently Indonesia was forced to admit that East Timor deserved to be independent.

Same is the case with Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. Baluchistan became independent on August 11th, 1947 four days before Pakistan. It was also coerced to become part of Pakistan. Gilgit-Baltistan was in fact invaded by Pakistan and does not belong in Pakistan at all. De-jure it is Indian territory.

So if the West is willing to make Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan into disputed territories deserving of self-determination and independence, then it can be possible for the international community to force Pakistan out of these areas. If Pakistan declines, international sanctions can be applied on Pakistan. Also weapons can be supplied to Baluchis and Gilgitians and Baltistanis.

These two regions have a case for Independence! Legally they are also the low-hanging fruit.

The key is whether USA finally dumps Pakistan and takes on the challenge.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Aug 2011 19:49

JE Menon wrote:The RPG only story is bullshit. I'm willing to bet my left nut that it was not RPGs alone. In due course, things will leak out. Not saying RPGs can't take down choppers, even rifles can in right circumstances. But this was something more. The silence is to determine the precise nature of the Paki hand. After that, it will be for the US to decide on what next. Either suck it in and grit teeth and carry on, like we do, or do what many believe uncle normally does. Either way, we will gain. And we have nothing additional to lose by Pakistan becoming the power that drove another super-power out of its neighbourhood.

Is the Chinook downing a sign of the long expected TSPA jihadi coup? Did Kiyani et al authorize or allow the downing to fend of the jihadi ranks anger or did it happen anyway despite their displeasure?
Note Karzai govt says four Pakis were with the Taliban in that Chinook episode.

And note the brutality of the Kupwara incident shows a new wannabe Ghazi is rising in the terrorist ranks. We should look for new POCs after Ilyas Kashmiri is droned to jahaliya

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 09 Aug 2011 19:52

RajeshA wrote: The key is whether USA finally dumps Pakistan and takes on the challenge.

My friend , this is where I am pessimistic.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 09 Aug 2011 19:57

chetak wrote:Pak fears attacks, moves warships out of Karachi

Moving to Balochistan? From the pot to the good ol' fire? Isn't Balochistan crawling with agents of the Egyptian sun god? Hope they do the needful...

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 09 Aug 2011 20:01

Suppiah wrote:
chetak wrote:Pak fears attacks, moves warships out of Karachi
Moving to Balochistan? From the pot to the good ol' fire? Isn't Balochistan crawling with agents of the Egyptian sun god? Hope they do the needful...

Suppiah ji , On a serious note though Egyptian sun god probably doesn't even rise in Balochistan.I hate to say it but this Egyptian Sun god has been extremely negligent towards Baloch freedom fighters and it is high time it renewed its affections for balochis.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Aug 2011 20:10

darshhan wrote:
RajeshA wrote: The key is whether USA finally dumps Pakistan and takes on the challenge.
My friend , this is where I am pessimistic.

You have very good reason to be pessimistic!

But fact is, as long as a dog behaves with its master, it is given biscuits, regardless of whether it scares other kids, but when it gets rabies and start biting the master, it needs to be killed!

Islamic societies create chaos in stable societies to break down all forms of structures which give order to the society, and then the create their own order! As soon as a center of power becomes weak, it would be swallowed by the more powerful Islamic group. What we need to ensure is that in Pakistan there are several centers of power matched relatively equally, which cannot be reconciled. We do not allow any center to be swallowed by the other! Only that ensures perpetual war, when no Islamic group wins. Only that can ensure that Islamism burns out in Pakistan.

Imagine if Pakistan had not created a Taliban and put their own manpower and resources behind it to overwhelm Afghanistan! Afghanistan would either still have been at war, or Islam would have been severely weakened by now there. But the consolidation of Islamism in the form of Taliban changed all that.

So India's job is to ensure that no power can really make any group in Pakistan win over the other. It needs to be Deobandis vs Ahle-e-Hadiths, Barelvis vs Deobandis, Shias vs Sunnis, Ahmediyyas vs other Muslims, Christians vs Muslims, Pushtuns vs Pakjabis, Baluchis vs Pakjabis, Sindhis vs Pakjabis, Mohajirs vs Sindhis, Pushtuns vs Mohajirs, Pushtun vs Pushtun, Seraikis vs Pakjabis, Gang vs Gang, SD vs RSD, TSPA faction vs TSPA faction, and so on. Within all these groups we need to divide still further. We need to provide arms and money and food to each group and direct them against each other.

30 years or so of continuous brutality would kill any Islamic fervor anybody would still entertain. Then would be the time for Dharmic Inkspots.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 09 Aug 2011 20:16

Karachi has a population of about 15-18 million. Baluchistan - 9 million and NWFP - 21 million. Assuming about 10 million residents of Baluchistan and NWFP together do not come under the Paki army control - we have about 15% of the population of Pakistan and 40-50% of its land area beyond the control of the Pakistan army. But this information is pure dramabaazi. With only 2% Pakis paying income tax - clearly 98% of Pakis do not directly contribute to the state and the state can do nothing. But let me ignore that and stick to dramabaazi.

Of the remaining 85% of Pakis - most of them who are "under Paki army/government" control - perhaps 90-100 million live in Pakjab. Pakjab has the greatest contribution to he Paki army and Pakjab appears to be greatly Islamized/radicalized. Pakjab also has 50-70% poverty and illiteracy. But the army is theirs and islam is theirs. Pakjabis are most likely to support an islamized army and they are extremely anti India. Nowadays they are anti US as well as far as I can tell - I need to revisit poll stats about this.

Now here's the rub. Other than Kandle Kissing there is nothing India can do about Pakjab. We can have some Aman ki Tamasha and other forms of tamasha - but the hatred remains. It is the US who have had better control over Pakjab by virtue of US influence on the Pakistan army. The US has lived comfortably and happily with the anti-India sentiment of the Pakistan army. It is only now that there is an anti-US sentiment in the Pakistan army. The US is "newly upset" about this antiUs sentiment. Anti-India sentiment was taken as a "given" in Pakistan - something that the US had to accept to be friendly with Pakistan and have influence in the army.

What the US is seeing now is a Paki army that is not just anti-India, but anti US as well and increasingly Islamized. The Pakistan army is unable to fight Islamization and would rather resist the US. Putting pressure on the Pakistan army is causing the Islamists to fight the army which the army can't do because of popular support for Islamists. The Islamists will destroy the Paki army from within - but resisting the US will not destroy the Pakistan army. The Paki army knows that resisting the US is a safer bet. The US will not dierctly fight the Pakistan army - which would also destroy the Paki army killing the only lifeline the US has in Pakistan.

Under such circumstances, what can the US do? What can India do? What options would be best for Indian and US interests?

1. Destroy the Pakistan army. India or the US could do that. The US could do that directly, or indirectly by provoking war with India (less certain). Destroying the Paki army would benefit India by removing the most powerful. coherent entity opposed to India. But it would leave an angry Paki population and angry jihadis. it would also kill the only connection the USA has with Pakistan, so the USA does not want to see the Pai army destroyed.

2. Bribe, fund and strengthen the Pakistan army to try and get them to fight jihadis. This is what the US has been doing from 9-11. It is a bad option for India and for the US it has failed miserably. the US is just finding that out. (hey we could have told them 10 years ago.)

3. Try to get the Pakistan army to make peace with India so it does not get into a suicidal war with India. I am certain India would not object to this and I think the US is trying to encourage this. But it will not work as long as there are infiltration bids and terrorism into India. India also requires that the us stop supplying Pakistan with offensive arms. the US has been fork-tongued about this and all it effort are bound to fail if the US thinks that arming Pakistan and them asking them to make peace with India will work. Pakistan will negotiate from weakness. They fight if they feel strong. They are feeling strong enough to fight a proxy war agaisnt india and the US. And the dumbass US is the source of their strength.

4. Try and win over civil society in Pakistan and get a civilian government system going. India does not object to this. But Pakistani civilians - manly the Pakjabis fear India and increasingly dislike the US. This is an uphill struggle - but this is the one single area where I will acknowledge that the US has successfully exerted pressure on the Paki army. I suspect (without proof army tolerate buffoons like Zardari and nobodies like Hina Rabbani Khar. But this comes at a price for India - the Pakistan army has been bribed by the US and armed against India to do this. And that army sits in the background ready to take over power if need be. And they may well do that if the US stops paying them. And if the US pays them - they attack India.

Ultimately the US and India will have to reach agreement about what to do with the Pakistan army and how to manage the fallout of a weakened/toothless Pakistan army. The US is not ready for that and India will not benefit from anything less.But until the Pakistan army is rendered weak there can be no progress. Only unpredictable chaos AND a powerful army as we see now. Remove the army and let the chaos begin in earnest.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 09 Aug 2011 20:28

Shiv ji , What do you think about US or India supporting armed factions in Pakistan to cut Pakistani army or even Pakistan in size?For eg Baloch freedom fighters or MQM.Do you think if this will happen?I mean US has the capability and India could develop such capabilities within some time.But then both have demonstrated supreme WKK tendencies till now and this doesn't seem to change.Is there a chance that this might change in future.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Aug 2011 20:33

The weakening can start by stopping spare parts for offensive weapons like F-16s, ships and tanks. So slowly the TSPA can become a police force for civil defence. They will have enough arms to control jihadis and not pose a threat to the neighborhood.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 09 Aug 2011 20:42

Egyptian sun god

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 09 Aug 2011 21:18

darshhan wrote:Shiv ji , What do you think about US or India supporting armed factions in Pakistan to cut Pakistani army or even Pakistan in size?For eg Baloch freedom fighters or MQM.Do you think if this will happen?I mean US has the capability and India could develop such capabilities within some time.But then both have demonstrated supreme WKK tendencies till now and this doesn't seem to change.Is there a chance that this might change in future.

Darshan I have no exact answers. I get the impression that everyone in Pakistan is armed - or has access to small arms up to AK-47 level. Mere small arms are freely available - so anyone can form a "militia". The Baluchis are probably at this level as are the MQM

The next level up is access to RPGs, heavy machine guns, anti-aircraft weapons, vehicles NVGs and communications equipment. This is made available to trained LeT or HuM type militants just like it was made available to the Taliban.

The third level is all of the above plus military training and discipline, including the ability to set up explosives and booby traps, mortars and some rockets. At this level you start getting a "proper soldier". The Pakistan army has access to this as ell as "branches" of the Pakistan army like the LeT and some factions of the Taliban

One higher level from here would be access to armored personnel carriers, helos and army logistics and army intelligence. The army retains control of this but clearly provides these facilities to the LeT and the good Taliban.

What this means is that a militia that the Pakistan army does not support will remain more or less at level 1. India and the US would have to work with level 1 "militia" and have them fight vastly better rained and equipped forces. This would eb a suicidal/unworkable venture without making the Pakistan army weaker. Making the Pakistan army weaker would simultaneously reduce many LeT and good taliban like forces to level 1 militia.

What needs to be done is to reduce the ability of the Pakistan army to sustain itself as an army and more difficult to provide services to their terrorist partners. What the US is doing is exactly the opposite. They give the Pakistan army heavy equipment to look after the Pakaramys India fears and they give the Pak army access to intelligence, NVGs and good secure communication equipment which the Paki army can use for supporting the LeT and the good Taliban. They subsidize the military budegt by giving F-16s and AMRAAMs along with their aid. There is no chance that making minor militia fight this mighty army can succeed. Only the US armed forces or the Indian armed forces can defeat the Pakiarmy. Militias can harass but not win against these guys. The militias will hod their own for a while. the Paki army will never get Karachi because they cannot use their heavy stuff. But when the heavy stuff comes in - the militas will be wiped out.

The Taliban, fighting the US are not a simple militia. they get the logistics, training and intel of the Pakistan army while the logistics of US forces is controlled by the same Pakistan army. So a US that cannot prevail over the Taliban will never be able to arm and make Balochis win a fight with the Paki army. Nor India for that matter.

Joseph · Post by **Joseph** » 09 Aug 2011 21:24

RajeshA wrote:
Same is the case with Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. Baluchistan became independent on August 11th, 1947 four days before Pakistan. It was also coerced to become part of Pakistan. Gilgit-Baltistan was in fact invaded by Pakistan and does not belong in Pakistan at all. De-jure it is Indian territory.

So if the West is willing to make Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan into disputed territories deserving of self-determination and independence, then it can be possible for the international community to force Pakistan out of these areas. If Pakistan declines, international sanctions can be applied on Pakistan. Also weapons can be supplied to Baluchis and Gilgitians and Baltistanis.

These two regions have a case for Independence! Legally they are also the low-hanging fruit.

The key is whether USA finally dumps Pakistan and takes on the challenge.

Rajesh,

Would the U.S. have to go through a transition phase of openly telling Pakistan to shutup about Kashmir before the U.S. could start work on the Baluchistan and/or Gilgit-Baltistan Freedom projects?

The arrest of Fai a few weeks ago could have been the start of sending Pakistan a message to quit talking about Kashmir or just something to slap ISI - Pakistan around a bit and not Kashmir specific.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 09 Aug 2011 21:30

i think unkil has told munna a few years back to shut up about cashmere

sanjeevpunj · Post by **sanjeevpunj** » 09 Aug 2011 21:59

Source:http://www.indianexpress.com/news/pak-k ... ar/829431/

Pak keen for progress on Siachen, Sir Creek with India: Khar.
Islamabad:Pakistan has conveyed to India its keenness for progress on "doable" issues like Siachen and Sir Creek to create a "conducive" environment to talk about "core issues" and move towards their resolution, Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said on Tuesday.

Doable! What she means? War is also doable.Wonder S M krishna will take the hint and do something "doable" in Siachen.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 09 Aug 2011 22:06

(Begin downhill skiiing)

No argument, Pakistan has used its partnership with US to fool US and screw India. And US can hardly claim to have great leadership, especially with the present incumbent of the White House. If I sullied Rajputs along the way, please excuse it as gaalis to one's own. I continue to be very unhappy about India's support for Sov invasion, and would like to learn more about what drove India to do so - but that is for another thread.

(End downhill skiiing)

Pakistan is a hard country, and will keep getting harder. But perhaps it is an idea we are fighting, and a flanking approach would serve us better? How about begining in (former) East Pakistan? Solve the border issues, solve the Teesta water issue, open up the Indian market, even formalize a guest worker program. Demolish the idea that India is inimical to subcontinental Islam. Demolish the foundations of Pakistan.

Jayram · Post by **Jayram** » 09 Aug 2011 22:08

r_subramanian wrote:India blocks Pakistan-born Usman Khawaja’s visa
Pakistan-born Australian batsman Usman Khawaja on Tuesday said he was being refused a visa into India for next month’s Champions League Twenty20 tournament because of his country of birth.
...
link

Really -- this is BS news.. Kwaja was here in the World Cup remember. He was supposed to be thier secret weapon.. And the news is from Paki sources !!. Something is very fishy here..

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 09 Aug 2011 22:45

Jayram wrote: link
Really -- this is BS news.. Kwaja was here in the World Cup remember. He was supposed to be thier secret weapon.. And the news is from Paki sources !!. Something is very fishy here..

Above link has disappeared, but the same news is available from other sources.

It is possible his earlier visit was on a visa issued before rules changed because of Dawood Gilani. Dual citizens born in Pakistan are apparently required to present a Pakistani passport now.

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/cricket/ ... 1iky1.html

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Aug 2011 22:49

Joseph wrote:Rajesh,

Would the U.S. have to go through a transition phase of openly telling Pakistan to shutup about Kashmir before the U.S. could start work on the Baluchistan and/or Gilgit-Baltistan Freedom projects?

The arrest of Fai a few weeks ago could have been the start of sending Pakistan a message to quit talking about Kashmir or just something to slap ISI - Pakistan around a bit and not Kashmir specific.

Well US had developed a hands off policy w.r.t. Kashmir when George W. Bush's Administration came in. But they knew how worked up the Pakistanis were about Kashmir, so they let Pakistanis continue with their rhetoric in the West about human rights violations in Kashmir etc. USA still had a legacy of friendship with Pakistan, and after 9/11 were drafted in their War on Terror, so Fai and the rest were given all the leeway they needed.

When the Democratic Administration came in, they were still green behind the ears and were not really up to date as far as how much the world had changed in the 8 years, and how far India had traveled so they made some noises about Kashmir in non-official capacity. When they saw that Pakistan was withholding cooperation, then there was some temptation in Obama's Administration to dangle a little bit of the Kashmir carrot to get their cooperation. But they sensed that with India's resolve they would not really get that far. So they let the hot potato fall, especially as the depth of Pakistan's perfidy sunk in.

Now the Americans have finally started to move in the other direction. They closed up Fai's shop more as a sign to Pakistan, that their whole case on Kashmir would collapse in the international community if they don't fall in line. Pakistanis however seem to have gone to far and are not willing to return. They know they can't provide the services the Americans demand. So the logical consequence is that Americans would now go ahead and close the whole Kashmir as Dispute file. India would profit from it.

How far the Americans then go out and punish Pakistan on the Kashmir issue is still a open question! It would be in their favor to strengthen the hands of their "natural ally" in Asia!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Aug 2011 22:52

YIP, Now you know my psot about distances etc., etc...

Dont worry everyone has their cloudy days.

saip · Post by **saip** » 09 Aug 2011 23:07

Really -- this is BS news.. Kwaja was here in the World Cup remember. He was supposed to be thier secret weapon.. And the news is from Paki sources !!. Something is very fishy here..

I dont think India 'blocked' the visa. It is just that the High Commission in Australia has to follow certain procedures before it issues visas to people born in Pakistan and it takes time. In fact Pakistan too follows similar procedure for americans born in India.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 09 Aug 2011 23:21

Why would Americans born in India wan't to go to Pakistan? well apart from Siddharth Varadarajan when he goes to collect his hafta from Fai

saip · Post by **saip** » 09 Aug 2011 23:26

My company used to import from India/Pakistan. They wanted me to go to Pakistan to train the IT guys and I couldn't go because of the hassle.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 09 Aug 2011 23:40

I beg to differ that US has a hand-off Kashmir policy. I have heard any number of "South Asia experts" recommend, and I thinks thats what is in motion, namely, US does not want to openly talk about Kashmir for fear of hurting one of their munnas domestically, MMS or Kiyani & Co. Quiet diplomacy as they call it. For sure, behind the scenes nudging is going on to facilitate some movement. My own feeling is that US's viewpoint is definetly pro-Paki in that they would like to see the valley in TSP control. That would really give life to their TSP project of 60+ years. So, US strategy is to push all kinds of duplicity from "borders are irrelevant" to self determination in POK etc to get some movement going.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 10 Aug 2011 00:15

CRamS wrote:I beg to differ that US has a hand-off Kashmir policy. I have heard any number of "South Asia experts" recommend, and I thinks thats what is in motion, namely, US does not want to openly talk about Kashmir for fear of hurting one of their munnas domestically, MMS or Kiyani & Co. Quiet diplomacy as they call it. For sure, behind the scenes nudging is going on to facilitate some movement. My own feeling is that US's viewpoint is definetly pro-Paki in that they would like to see the valley in TSP control. That would really give life to their TSP project of 60+ years. So, US strategy is to push all kinds of duplicity from "borders are irrelevant" to self determination in POK etc to get some movement going.

Correct. Kashmir for the US is a Pakistan engagement policy. By engaging with K and Pakistan interest they get inside the inner circle of the Pak establishment.

GOTUS dont see it as a Kashmir valley or a dispute area but as a means to get close to and engage with Pakistan.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Aug 2011 00:27

Acharya wrote:Correct. Kashmir for the US is a Pakistan engagement policy. By engaging with K and Pakistan interest they get inside the inner circle of the Pak establishment.

GOTUS dont see it as a Kashmir valley or a dispute area but as a means to get close to and engage with Pakistan.

Exactly! Now the question is when will the USA perceive it as a means which pays off and not harms US interests by pissing off India.

India has been quite restrained in criticism of US policy on Kashmir. Some future Indian Government may make any pro-Pakistani or even "neutral" meddling in Kashmir by the USA as an affront and let the relations dive to tell the US where to get off.

USA must feel that any use of Kashmir as a means of engagement with Pakistan has costs in disengagement from India.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 10 Aug 2011 00:50

RajeshA wrote: Once the West creates a moral framework for a people to be liberated, it is often easier to help. As was in the case of East Timor, where a Muslim country was forced to let it go. East Timor declared independence from Portugal in 1975, and then it was invaded by Indonesia. Subsequently Indonesia was forced to admit that East Timor deserved to be independent.

East Timor became a European cause, according to Wiki, because the Portuguese saw videos of Timorese praying in Portuguese; and because 95% of the Timorese had converted to Christianity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_East_Timor

So if the West is willing to make Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan into disputed territories deserving of self-determination and independence, then it can be possible for the international community to force Pakistan out of these areas. If Pakistan declines, international sanctions can be applied on Pakistan. Also weapons can be supplied to Baluchis and Gilgitians and Baltistanis.

a. The West makes these determinations out of self-interest, not out of objective considerations.

b. In any way recognizing this power of "the West" by India means that the West can play the same games with any area of India. Let's remember whom the "international community" is. It is not Fiji and Chad and Senegal. It is the US and Europe. I think China knows the potential of this with regard to Eastern Turkmenistan and Tibet and would not invoke this "self-determination" stuff.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 10 Aug 2011 01:30

RajeshA wrote:
Exactly! Now the question is when will the USA perceive it as a means which pays off and not harms US interests by pissing off India.

USA must feel that any use of Kashmir as a means of engagement with Pakistan has costs in disengagement from India.

When it becomes expensive to maintain the policy then USA will change the policy. The cost can from the Pakistan side or from the Indian side. India has leverage on both sides to increase the cost.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Aug 2011 01:36

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/08/ ... .html?_r=1
Pakistani Art Makes U.S. Debut Amid Political Challenges

NEW YORK (Reuters Life!) - An exhibit of rare Buddhist sculptures, architectural reliefs and works of gold and bronze is opening at the Asia Society Museum on Tuesday after a long and tumultuous journey from Pakistan. The works, many of which have never been shown before in the United States, are from the historically rich Gandharan region of Pakistan.Most of the works in the three-month exhibit, "The Buddhist Heritage of Pakistan: Art of Gandhara," are on loan from the National Museum in Karachi and Lahore Museum in Lahore. Buddhist art flourished in the region, near present-day Peshawar in northwest Pakistan, between the second and fourth centuries. "It was an early culture. It was a Buddhist culture and it was one of the first occasions where we see Buddha represented in his figurative form," Chiu explained.
Among the highlights of the exhibit are Vision of a Buddha Paradise from the 4th Century and a winged Aphrodite leaning against a pillar from the 1st Century.
"We want people to see the very rich cultural heritage of Pakistan that is lesser known here in the U.S."

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 10 Aug 2011 01:43

The PPP is certainly not anti-Pakistani, but it does have a problem with the Punjabi heartland, and it does have a problem with the Army.

One interesting development is the recent devolution bill in Pakistan, and the appearance of high level PPP support for a separate Seraiki province. This is the same PPP that supported the end of direct rule in "Northern Areas" and the renaming of NWFP.

Significant elements of the devolution have been watered down, but in the longer run I think its likely that we might see a gradual shift from the "national security complex" to more local perspectives which revolve around access to resources, development, and local ethnic and political power struggles.

I see this process as inevitable given the growth in Pakistan's population, and the multiplication of its problems of governance and development. Parties in power at the federal level will need greater insulation from popular anger and discontent.

In any case can the Pakistani state, and by extension the Army maintain its dominant role as the population balloons? I wonder, given how little they invest in capacity. More and more of Pakistan's cities may come to resemble Karachi. Simply too big, and too fractured to be controlled by any single force.