Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Aug 05, 2011

[Cosmo_R]

@Rudradev^^^: "You and I may or may not agree with GOI on this, but I believe that this is what the GOI is thinking..."

"GoI" is a misnomer. Essentially it is MMS plus a couple of people in the PMO such as SSM. The others such as NR and Rajan Mathai are mere water carriers. This is the result of the deal IMHO between SG and MMS that he gets foreign policy and economics and the Gandhis get the rest. That is why SMK is MEA--PMO can go straight through, around and under and he won't notice much less complain.

No great depth of field and a big tin ear as you saw with SeS and the Teesta incident. It's all personality driven and not institutional.

[RajeshA]

are not MY personal view of Pakistan or MY ideas for resolving the Pakistan problem.

They are my view of the GOI's current thinking on the Pakistan problem

Rudradev ji,

thanks for the clarification.

[sum]

What TSPA gains from these terrorist acts is self relevancy and India's unwillingness to seriously counter act further emboldens them to continue, in its strive to keep the threat alive.

But then shouldnt TSPA be printing its calling card in bold every time to taunt Desh even further like during 26/11?

They anyways know ( from open sources and their assets in Desh) that the present GoI will NEVER even mildly punish Pak even if Kayani admits to trying to assassinate all Indian netas.( only punishment might be more huge dossiers lobbed across the border)

[Rudradev]

4) It can start a war. It can arm up, invest wholesale in defense R&D, in procurement of foreign weapons systems and manufacture of its own weapons systems. And it can use these weapons systems in the pursuit of other kinds of power... geostrategic power. An additional benefit to this method of monetizing its debt is that it does not lead to civil unrest (at least as long as China can claim victory) but rather, to an upsurge in jingoistic nationalism that strengthens the position of an authoritarian government.

Excellent post . Brilliant analysis . But just one question. Why not just invest in weapons r&d etc? Why start a war? I mean they could keep buying stuff for their armed forces etc. And poakroach arms market is quite big in itself . Because starting a war with India has its consequences without doubt. It ll surely cost them a huge deal India by no means is a pushover .Starting a war to save economy is by no means a good idea . USSR was in the same situation in 80's as China is now. Even then there was a talk about SU overtaking USA economically etc. But what happened after the afghan war?

Besides they ll surely have to get it done without a security council sanction . However bad we assume the west to be , security council is not crazy enough to authorize any action against India. So illegal war per se has its consequences . Sanctions and economic consequences might be devastating . Already there is a lot of noise in the west to shift production back home. It can very well happen . True China is a big market for western companies and by that means is almost irreplaceable. But the problem here is that Chinese consumers have got no home grown option .

What about fears from Taiwan . SoKo and Japan about a similar action? Would not they start worrying that they ll be attacked next ?
And China is still no where near as powerful as the US is to get away.

Only thing I am worried about is MOD/BABU's/MEA...That they ll not authorise a retaliatory strike upon Chinese invasion.

Gakakkad ji, the answer to your question "why go to war, why not just invest in weapons" is borne out by a truism which we have seen in action ever since WW I. The existence of a military industrial complex in modern states, inevitably leads to military conflict.

China has ALREADY been investing in weapons R&D, manufacture and procurement since the late '90s, more and more throughout the last decade. Now it is doing so even more intensely as a means of monetizing its debt. But as this happens, the pressure to use what has been accumulated, is also rising. Let me try to explain with an example.

Every year in the CPC politburo, different factions have to come up with requests for budget allocation. One very powerful faction may be the Militarists... PLA plus defense/armaments contractors. They are the ones who stand to benefit, when China decides to monetize its debt by investing in weapons R&D and procurement.

But there are other factions also. Let us say, in 2003, the Militarists put forth a budget of $10 billion (just a random figure.) Meanwhile, some party member from Shenyang wants $2 billion to build a Hello Kitty amusement park. Some other guy from Harbin wants $5 billion for a dam/irrigation project.

The Militarists insist that they should get the priority. After all China is in danger. Japan is acting tough on Senkoku Island. India has recently tested nukes and they might weaponize soon. Dalai Lama said something threatening in his speech.

Also, CPC economic czars favour the idea of spurring the economy by spending on defense, so the Shenyang guy and the Harbin guy are denied. The money is granted to the Militarists to manufacture SSNs and aircraft carriers.

This goes on every year. Let us say in 2009, the Militarists want $20 billion. They say that Taiwan is behaving very aggressively, Vietnam is taking control of the Spratly Islands, India is raising mountain divisions in "South Tibet" etc.

This time the Shenyang Hello Kitty guy and the Harbin Dam/Irrigation guy are more adamant in their refutation. They say, "we already had to go without funds because you Militarists were talking about Japan/Senkoku and Indian nukes in 2003. You got your money, what did you do with it? How are we more secure?"

However, once again the CPC czars favour the idea of monetizing the debt by spending on defense. So they give the Militarists $20 billion to spend on JF-17s, BMP knockoffs, IRBMs and whatever else.

But at the same time, pressure from the factions opposed to the Militarists is rising. Pretty soon the Militarists have to show results to justify all the money they have been getting, and the money they plan to keep getting in future.

One day in 2011, news comes that India is about to test the Agni V. This is a moment-of-truth for the Militarists. They HAVE to do something to justify the funds they have been getting all this time, at the expense of other interests, in order to keep future tranches of money flowing.

Note that at this time, even the opposition from the other Non-Militarist factions in the Politburo works in favour of starting a war. In my example, the Harbin guy and the Shenyang guy will start asking: "you have been taking money for years and years, while we have had to do without the Hello Kitty Amusement Park and the Dam. Now you tell us that India may soon have missiles capable of reaching Harbin! Meanwhile your precious SSNs and Carriers are rusting in the harbour. You have been given what you asked for in terms of budget, how are you going to serve our interests?"

The Militarists have painted themselves into a corner with their justifications for building a Military Industrial Complex. Their only choice is to say, now is the time, and manufacture a case for war. They go to town with propaganda, declaring that Vietnamese aggression in the South China Sea has reached unacceptable limits; that the ally Pakistan is now more anti-US than ever before; that the US is now weak and not likely to interfere in any war prosecuted by China; that India must be crushed before it deploys Agni III and test Agni V. They drum up a war-beat of "now or never."

Conflict is then a fait accompli; as it was for the Germans in 1914, the Americans in 1965 and 2003, the Russians in 1980. The political dynamics of a Military Industrial Complex will necessarily shift the equilibrium towards war. Whether it's a constitutional monarchy or a democracy or a socialist republic or a dictatorship doesn't matter. It always happens.

Of course, the factions opposed to the Militarists in the CPC politburo, will right at this moment be advancing the same counter-arguments against war that you have cited. India can cause a lot of pain in retaliation; Security Council will not support us; other countries like SoKo/Japan will get more nervous.

But given historical precedent, all these sensible reasons are simply ignored or consumed by war hysteria, which the Militarists are trying to build up. For everything there is a counter argument: India will only become more powerful given time, we must consolidate "Southern Tibet" or we will lose our chance, India must be taught a lesson before it commits to increasing naval presence in the South China Sea or forming a military alliance with US/Japan/Australia. Given the political momentum, war is inevitable.

*****

Now to Kanson's question about Taiwan. If PRC wanted a war, why would they pick India and not Taiwan? I think the answer is, they're still not sure (despite US' apparent weakness) that US and Japan will not rush to Taiwan's defense. However, they may calculate that this is not true of India. With Pakistan on their side, and US staying out of the conflict, the PRC Militarists may feel more confident of securing a military "victory" against India than one against Taiwan.

Also, Kanson, about Agni V testing this year. If it happens, it is a good thing. It is a sign that we are not idly waiting with the axe over our heads, that we are trying to close the window of opportunity for China to prosecute a two-front war against us. Still, for the present Agni V is untested and I don't know if Agni III is even deployed. IF what Bharat Karnad says is true, 20kT weapons is the most we have. So the assessment, that GOI is trying very hard to avoid war by courting certain factions within Pakistan, holds good.

[Theo_Fidel]

India, as always chooses the wrong social class to pin its hopes on. The feudal-military complex is the power on its way out. It will split into two - one allied with the base of Dawaists, and the other into a smaller faction looking for allies in the middle- petit-bourgeoisie. The problem with relying on this middle and "enlightened" elite in Islamist societies - lies all around us - in Afghanistan, in Iran, in BD. In each case, the Islamist society and its training/conditioning methods had ensured that this middle+enlightened section remains fundamentally weak, so that their moves become adventurist and unsustainable before the base backlash.

In fact such adventures are carefully used by the mullahs to start dismantling the remaining superstructure of formal state power, and then wipe out the adventurists to capture supreme state power. This was how Iran changed hands - its initial anti-Shah move was started by this urbane leftist/liberal peti-bourgeois and "enlightened" feudals/elite. Thsi was how AFG was delivered into Islamists.

By backing such a sectional combo, India might actually enhance mullahfication of the state completely.

B saar,

That is quite strong analysis. I can see the feudals crashing and burning but the Military??? They show no signs of backing down. They have the guns and money and pretty much the run of the country. Who is going to bell that cat.

Iran is a interesting comparison. While the elite and the Bourgeois started the battle w/ the Shah, it was the when countryside with 80% of the population deserted the Shah that change came. The Mullah's took over Iran in a series of internal coups after that. Iran also had the misfortune of having a Ayatollah Khomeini, who was seriously charismatic and sucked the life out of all other leaders. Most importantly Khomeini seduced the intellectuals, youth, Bourgeois and most unfortunately the women. Pretty much a cult leader. I've often thought, No Khomeini, No Mullahcracy in Iran, at least not in its present revolting form. You can see how much trouble they are having holding on since he left the earth.

In TSP land too 80% of the SDRE population is completely frozen out. They don't belong to any of the 5 categories Rudra put together. They have no charismatic leader they can follow. I doubt they even know what they want for TSP land other than a bit more to eat tomorrow. To this group the Military is like God, a bright shiny thing upon the hill. They don't believe in its incompetence like the Elite does. The military is the only organization that recruits from them. Even amongst the Jihadi's they are just canon fodder. The leader ship of the Jihadi's mostly comes from feudals, middle class and from cities, esp. 4-5-6 sons, who won't be getting a inheritance. As long as this deep underclass exists the military will remain in charge. Hard to know how this might change.

[skumar]

SKumar: You are mistaken in thinking that covert ops within paki stan, against the pakis means turning "criminal". All niti & artha shastras clearly segrigate State actions from Dharma & Rit, which are ristricted to personal, social morality. There are no "criminal" acts between States.

parsuram,
None of our "niti & artha shastras" would condone the acts suggested which would involve killing of innocents viz. "kill pakiness in their respective little zones of the pakis, join in every time sectarian terror strikes the pakis. prolong every incident. Cause new ones if a lull threatens. But escalate tearing apart the fabric of this miserable collection of sewer scum suckers called the paki state"

I would like to believe / hope that we are different, not soft, just different. This would not mean or suggest a passive stand. I wish we had the courage to take the fight into Pakistan on several legimitate targets that we could engage and not "attack their miserable infrastructure. bridges, trains, dams power stations and on and on and on". But all we have been doing is talk of being in a war instead of actually fighting one.

Our foreign policy is compromised, our government connives and conspires with foreign governments into fooling their own people, the people of India, to think that their government is intent on taking action. So, what can we really expect from them in terms of national security?

[Virupaksha]

Theo ji,

The military by itself cannot be immune to the changes and divisions in society around it. It needs allies which are "ideologically non empty" to hold itself.

[brihaspati]

Theo ji,
that military was the face of "God" - did remain mostly true until early 80's. Then the Afghan war, and subsequent scenario changes have slowly, very slowly removed the military from the direct social presence at the lowest levels.

The Paki govs, including the military, ultimately failed to build up the tax base - and fund the institutions that most modern normal states rely upon to reach and serve its cictizens. The failure came from stiff opposition by the feudals to agricultural taxation, and the predominance of both agriculture and feudalism in the essential socio-economic power structures. Compromises began to be reached from Ayub's times, even through Bhutto, and completed in Zia. It was during this stage, gradually the normal socio-economic functions of a modern state began to be handed over to the Dawaists - who run now a Pak spanning network of Islamic institutions providing some of the basic relief in lieu of state institutions which are practically absent from the lowest public sphere.

The military is dependent on the collaboration of the Islamists. I simply suggested that the major part of the military will turn towards the Islamists, while a smaller and weaker faction of "enlightened" ones may try to ally with "liberals" of elite/petit-bourgeois origins - as Rudradev ji points out. My point was that backing them up may actually accelerate Islamization.

[gakakkad]

Very analytical post rudra sir..

Indeed it is possible that some mad cheena jernail may attempt something stupid ...

China; that India must be crushed before it deploys Agni III and test Agni V

By this logic it can be argued that it India tests a TNW that demos a ~200 kt yield than it ll actually increase the risk of war. Presently they are not sure about how the nukes would hit them. It may be 20kt , it may be 40 kt it may even be 200kt or 1 MT . But there is surely an element of doubt.

Second thing is what could be the provocation? I mean they need something to provoke them. They can't simply send there men to die. May be if dalai lama says something? Or MEA says something. Or India imposes a high import duty on chinese electrical equipment. Could it be such a low stimulus?

US was a hell lot more powerful than I-RACKEEs. So was soviet in comparison to Afghans. I am not sure about how the military equation looked like in between A-H /Germany and serbia during ww1. What I do remember is that during the 2nd Balkan war Bulgaria (supported by austria/hungary) was defeated by the serbs and was forced to accept a cease fire.

The best thing we can hope is truly effective internal security apparatus (wishful thinking? ) that limits upto 2 attacks a year . Decent economic growth . And wise military acquisitions and R&D till 2020. Pakis will surely continue to go down the spiral they are going and by 2020 may well be irrelevant.

All I know is that the if Lizard invades , initial casualty from their side may be huge . I hope sense prevails in them and they accept the ceasefire early on..

[ShauryaT]

What TSPA gains from these terrorist acts is self relevancy and India's unwillingness to seriously counter act further emboldens them to continue, in its strive to keep the threat alive.

But then shouldnt TSPA be printing its calling card in bold every time to taunt Desh even further like during 26/11?

They do, almost every time but it is our stupid DDM along with our government that seeks to demand irrefutable proof of connivance of this state apparatus. Our own DIE do not want a war with TSP. For, they fear the consequences that stem from this war, via a collapse of TSP.

Hence this chimera of visible proof that will stand up to scrutiny in a court of law. When you put the bar this high and our ability to collect evidence and prosecute is weak (Until NIA came up, there was no effective means to prosecute cross state border terrorism acts and NIA still does not cover all crimes) and the general political unwillingness to act, one gets the impression that the tell tale signatures are not clear. If one goes through the documentation provided at a site like SATP.org, how does one come to any other conclusion but that fact that the connivance of TSP is implicit and explicit, is a mystery to me.

Our leaders are seeking to create this impression that the political leadership in TSP is helpless and a victim themselves. As if, TSP cannot and do not control what happens in their territory. There is a double game going on here. TSPA does its part to keep the threat alive and our DIE do their part to control our response with a nearly no response type of posture.

Keep this level of proof to the same level that any other nation state would demand, i.e: anything that emanates from lands controlled by a sovereign state is the responsibility of that state. Now, if the state is not in control then it should loose its sovereignty. Similarly in India, if one can find a way to make the state accountable for its security lapses then our responses can also change accordingly.

[hnair]

Rudradev-saar, stating the obvious: neat posts.

gakakkad-saar, Since Zhao Ziyang* was imprisoned and Deng stepped down, there has not been any serious mass leader who has the pulse of public (however weak that pluse was after Mao's holocausts). So the current CPC is run by soulless geeks. Forget Central Military Commission members, just take a look at the others' (civilians in the committee) backgrounds. Almost all of them are techies grown big. All their solutions to their public's urge for advancement is technology. And statistics are cooked up to prove that (widely disseminated by drones in our threads) they are fine. That is what they are proficient in, not say, figure out things like living conditions caused by factory-camps or carcinogenic effluents etc. They are the world's most corporate political leadership and that is not good for a country or its neighbours.

Now where do soulless techies all over the world (including some Indians) look for guidance during moments of inadequacy? United States and its actions!! All techies in existence grew up watching the US. Different people make different conclusions about US and geeks make their own. So if United States goes to war frequently and is perceived as the reason for their clout (technical, softpower or otherwise), that will be considered a good thing for China too.

Shiv-saar, I am a bit late regarding Shree Karnad's talks, but was there any whiff of an Indo-US version of a Nunn-Lugar Ver2.0 being contemplated? It will help out the PakTeahouse (Rudradev-saar's category D?) and not-yet-drowned Abduls (Cat E?) and the entire world tremendously, if US helps wind down Pak proliferation and we buy these stockpiles as reactor fuel.

(edited to correct name)
____________________
* I feel a China under Zhao would have groomed a better class of younger leaders than under the likes of the animatronic and thuggish Jiang.

[Rudradev]

Very analytical post rudra sir..

Indeed it is possible that some mad cheena jernail may attempt something stupid ...

China; that India must be crushed before it deploys Agni III and test Agni V

By this logic it can be argued that it India tests a TNW that demos a ~200 kt yield than it ll actually increase the risk of war. Presently they are not sure about how the nukes would hit them. It may be 20kt , it may be 40 kt it may even be 200kt or 1 MT . But there is surely an element of doubt.

Interesting question there. Which makes for a better deterrent, certainty or ambiguity? But probably better discussed in the Deterrence thread.

Second thing is what could be the provocation? I mean they need something to provoke them. They can't simply send there men to die. May be if dalai lama says something? Or MEA says something. Or India imposes a high import duty on chinese electrical equipment. Could it be such a low stimulus?

Once the political momentum in favour of war has been built up within the aggressor's establishment, the stimulus can be *anything*. It can even be a 100% manufactured pretext, like "Gulf of Tonkin Incident" for US intervention in Vietnam. In the Pak-China case it will probably take the form of a terrorist attack against India on the 26/11 scale, compelling a retailation from India against Pakistan that ends up "killing PLA soldiers."

I wonder if this is part of the reason why PLA soldiers are deployed in POK in the first place... very much like US "advisors" in the months before Gulf of Tonkin, come to think of it.

US was a hell lot more powerful than I-RACKEEs. So was soviet in comparison to Afghans. I am not sure about how the military equation looked like in between A-H /Germany and serbia during ww1. What I do remember is that during the 2nd Balkan war Bulgaria (supported by austria/hungary) was defeated by the serbs and was forced to accept a cease fire.

Yes, usually the target picked for aggression by a nation with a military-industrial complex, is deliberately chosen because it appears "weaker." US picked Iraq in 2003 for this reason, and picked Vietnam in 1965-66 thinking that they would be a pushover. Soviets in Afghanistan, same thing. For that matter, shades of this thinking are seen in the Pakis' 1965 aggression against India as well (military regime with brand new weapons... gifted with a ready-made military-industrial complex... and fielding TFTA soldiers who were the equivalent of ten Yindoos.)

Good news is, it never seems to end well for the country that starts it. But the country on whom aggression is forced, also suffers.

WW I was a slightly unique case because it wasn't just Germany and AH, but ALL the European powers who had been building up their military-industrial capacity at unprecedented rates for about 20-30 years by the time 1914 came. In the event Germany and AH started it by declaring war on Serbia, but it could just as easily have been any of the others. ALL of them were in the grips of war-bound political momentum.

The best thing we can hope is truly effective internal security apparatus (wishful thinking? ) that limits upto 2 attacks a year . Decent economic growth . And wise military acquisitions and R&D till 2020. Pakis will surely continue to go down the spiral they are going and by 2020 may well be irrelevant.

That seems to be the plan in the medium to long term. However, the two-front crisis may loom with greater immediacy... maybe a year or less into the future. That may be why GOI is in ultra-defensive and placatory mode, courting the Category D&E Pakis as a peace constituency.

All I know is that the if Lizard invades , initial casualty from their side may be huge . I hope sense prevails in them and they accept the ceasefire early on..

No doubt. If it comes to that I have full confidence that the IA and IAF will make them pay through the nose. Right now we're seeing the frenzied political/diplomatic efforts of the GOI to avoid war through offers of generous compromise; but if PLA interprets that as lack of resolve or military readiness, they will rue it.

[ramana]

RajeshA, 10 percenti is Shia by birth not by choice or conviction. In other words a pure opportunist.

[ShauryaT]

IF what Bharat Karnad says is true, 20kT weapons is the most we have. So the assessment, that GOI is trying very hard to avoid war by courting certain factions within Pakistan, holds good.

BK is not saying 20 KT is all we have. What he is saying is 20KT is all we have proven and hence the most credible. GOI has been trying to avoid wars forever with TSP. Even when we have wars, these wars are more about a battle of maneuvers than wars with substantial geopolitical aims (except 1971). None of the wars with TSP (including 71) have been wars of attrition or decimation. So, while the IA arms for such an event, the political leadership has no intention of executing, even with the capability.

What BK is saying, no point to build capabilities, that do not match likely political strategy. His missile threat comment (read Prithvi) was specifically in that context. He is a known propagator of the theory of predictability which promotes stability, when it comes to nuclear weapons. Tactical nuclear weapons promote instability.

[mehroke]

There is no honour in this

Article in the SMH, Australia about Pakistani Parents murdering their own child.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/live-her-ow ... 1jyee.html

You can take the Pakistani out of Pakistan - You cannot take Pakistan out of the Pakistani.

[shiv]

Let me ask a question to all the learned mualanas here. And I would request for an answer strictly from strategy POV:

- what does pakistan gain by doing, or getting others to do, what happened in Delhi today and, what has happened in past at other places?

<snip>

Which brings me back to the central question - what does ISI/TSPA gain from these acts? How are these acts helping Pakistan? Or, have these attacks been reduced to a level where they meet tactical and short-term needs only?

My take:

Whenever we talk of "ISI/TSPA" as being the authors of a policy there is an automatic assumption that we are dealing with a centralised authority that has an exact plan in place. I don't believe this is the case.

Pakistan has converted itself into a mass of people who are generally hostile to India. Among the people who are "deep green" - most hostile to India are the TSPA/ISI and the Islamists. The TSPA form one end of this hostile group. They have great firepower and are disciplined and are amenable to implementing "grand plans" . The Islamic militias on the other hand are autonomous and their leadership select dedicated Ghazis to execute missions where they may be killed.

Preparation for war for the TSPA is a big thing and if it fights a war it can do great damage to India. The Indian armed forces are designed to take on the TSPA and will do great damage to the TSPA in a formal war. For these reasons a continuous state of war is costly and unsustainable for the TSPA. However a continuous state of war is perfectly sustainable for Islamic tanzeems. They train for low cost, low grade war, suicide missions. They do not need large bases, heavy equipment and a robust logistics chain. they cannot therefore inflict major military defeats easily against a regular army and have to select the softest possible target. Any target (like Mumbi/Delhi HC) is a "victory" for them and a well defended target where they manage to cause casualties (Army) is a massive victory for them. In real terms the "victory" is more psychological than real.

Low grade, low cost war is therefore permanently affordable for Pakistan and it makes eminent sense for the TSPA and the Islamic groups to unite in their cause against India. The only groups in a regular standing army such as the Indian Army or the US army that operate in small groups are highly autonomous and covert are the special forces. Islamic tanzeems are the Pakistan army's special forces. In 1965 the TSPA used the SSG in mufti. That failed, but trained men in civilian garb has been the TSPA's modus operandi for 5 decades now.

What do they gain?
1. Regular "successes" that enable them to sustain morale
2. A constant creation of "martyrs" which are needed to maintain a sense of grievance for which revenge needs to be taken
3. The hope that if they keep it up long enough events will somehow turn in their favor and victory will be theirs at some unspecified future date.
4. Ever bit of pain inflicted on India is useful as a rallying point. The more the turmoil in India after even relatively minor attacks the more their cause is supported.

These are actually very good long term strategies to follow. Countering these strategies needs to go beyond mere realization that they can never "win" by inflicting such "pinpricks.". The lack of victory will never stop them. I suspect that there is a worry in official Indian circles that as the Pakistan state structure collapses, Pakistan will just become a mass of "tanzeems" who will keep on inflicting "pinpricks" for decades, and never allow Indian internal security to be completely dependable by attacking soft targets at random as they have been doing for decades now.

[sanjeevpunj]

There is no honour in this

Article in the SMH, Australia about Pakistani Parents murdering their own child.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/live-her-ow ... 1jyee.html

You can take the Pakistani out of Pakistan - You cannot take Pakistan out of the Pakistani.

Really sad.This honor killing wave is afflicting India too, btw, though to a marginally lesser degree.

[SSridhar]

But then shouldnt TSPA be printing its calling card in bold every time to taunt Desh even further like during 26/11?

At least since the 2008 Kabul Indian Embassy bombing, TSPA has given up the pretense of 'plausible deniability'. A whore needs to advertise that fact after some time when customer base begins to dwindle. Why did customer base dwindle for TSPA/ISI ? That was because of Musharraf's actions against Punjabi & Pakistani Taliban (though the latter did not understand his nuanced approach of taqiyyah). Even the LeT lost its cadres. A rattled ISI had to advertise to its constituents the fact that it had not reversed its stance. The twin Kabul attacks and 26/11 (all of which left tell-tale signs of ISI involvement) did attract some support and help stem the tide of desertion, I understand.

[SSridhar]

That's why I believe that AQAM is our best bet. The evil & unholy alliance of PRC-TSP is assuming a directly menacing proportion for us to think of AQAM.

I am curious! Did you mean the above in active mode by India or in the pray mode?

Pray mode is already happening and the love fest between the pure and the impure will only accentuate. The pure have also made several incursions against the Chinese in the Land of the Pure. For example, Nek Mohammed slit the throat of a Chinese engineer, the Ghazi brothers abducted the Chinese masseuse in Islamabad and held them captive for two weeks, several Chinese engineers/technicians were abducted for ransom etc.

Of course, ETIM, IMU, Chechen terrorists, Arab, Filippino, Indonesian, Arakan, Afghan, Pakistani & Punjabi Taliban have all fused together with AQ so much so that Ilyas Kashmiri, a Punjabi Taliban, assumed commander's position within AQ formally at one point.

The fear is that PRC-TSP combine may join in the GWOT under the guise of fighting terror and justify their actions while their sinister motive is only to target elements inconvenient to them while encouraging elements terrorizing India. China's actions wrt LeT, JeM are already known. That's why an unsplit AQAM would be advantageous.

Active mode support is quite dangerous as we have several examples of blowbacks such as Afghan mujahideen, LTTE etc. We need to somehow ensure that the AQAM takes on PRC-ISI alliance vigorously.

[shiv]

Low grade, low cost war is therefore permanently affordable for Pakistan and it makes eminent sense for the TSPA and the Islamic groups to unite in their cause against India. The only groups in a regular standing army such as the Indian Army or the US army that operate in small groups are highly autonomous and covert are the special forces. Islamic tanzeems are the Pakistan army's special forces. In 1965 the TSPA used the SSG in mufti. That failed, but trained men in civilian garb has been the TSPA's modus operandi for 5 decades now.

What do they gain?
1. Regular "successes" that enable them to sustain morale
2. A constant creation of "martyrs" which are needed to maintain a sense of grievance for which revenge needs to be taken
3. The hope that if they keep it up long enough events will somehow turn in their favor and victory will be theirs at some unspecified future date.
4. Ever bit of pain inflicted on India is useful as a rallying point. The more the turmoil in India after even relatively minor attacks the more their cause is supported.

These are actually very good long term strategies to follow. Countering these strategies needs to go beyond mere realization that they can never "win" by inflicting such "pinpricks.". The lack of victory will never stop them. I suspect that there is a worry in official Indian circles that as the Pakistan state structure collapses, Pakistan will just become a mass of "tanzeems" who will keep on inflicting "pinpricks" for decades, and never allow Indian internal security to be completely dependable by attacking soft targets at random as they have been doing for decades now.

Adding a few more thoughts.

I think it is important to point out that there is a very real Islamic jihad/ religious war component in Pakistan constant terrorist attack against India. With virtually no non Muslims Pakistan does not need secularism and they realise that sparking a religious war in India will do exactly what is needed:
1. Kill Secularism in India and the current structure of the Indian state
2. Spark of the very Muslim-non Muslim tensions that created Pakistan in the first place.

This too is a very good strategy. In fact if Indian Muslims rose up against the non Muslims in India, whether they win or lose it would serve Pakistan's purpose. If they win, it proves the superiority of Islam. if they lose, it proves the necessity of Pakistan.

If Indian Muslims do not rise up against non Muslims, the way to provoke them is to make Hindus rise up against Muslims. If Hindus rise against indian Muslims, maybe a percentage of Indian Muslims will fight. Their fight will be Pakistan fight. Their victory will be Pakistan victory. Their defeat will also be Pakistan's victory, creating martyrs who prove that Pakistan is necessary.

So I think it is important to be absolutely open and public about the fact that Pakistan is fighting and exceedingly intelligent and well conceived religious war against India that puts India in a losing situation whether Hindus rise up or Muslims rise up. The worst possible thing for Pakistan is continuing communal amity in India. That reduces the Pakistan plan from the success of "Direct action day" to the random killings of Dehli HC/26-11/Kaluchak etc

[Airavat]

Pakistan not helping Afghan peace talks: US Ambassador

"Those who are willing to talk should be given the opportunity," Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, told USA TODAY in a phone interview. "Those who are determined to fight should have actions taken against them that should prevent them from doing so." Analysts say Pakistan is attempting to play both sides in the conflict, hedging its bets in the event the Taliban remains after the United States leaves the region. The United States plans to withdraw its forces by the end of 2014.

About 2,400 fighters have completed a reintegration program that provides jobs, training and security to former insurgents, according to the coalition command in Afghanistan. An additional 3,000 are waiting to go through the program. Crocker is hopeful these local efforts will weaken the insurgency. "It's kind of hard to make an insurgency if your gun-toting insurgents have gone into another line of work," Crocker said. "It would certainly diminish the significance of the fat cats who sit in (Pakistan's) Quetta or North Waziristan."

[krisna]

Rudradev-
China has been acting for the last several years, more aggressively than ever towards all its neighbours. Not ONE conciliatory move is made, but panga is taken with Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines AND India at every opportunity. Why?

Because China needs a war. Or at least, one very powerful faction in the Chinese govt, including the PLA, is convinced that China needs a war.

Why does this faction think China needs a war?

Rudradev-- nicely analysed post-

Have differences wrt to the lizard behaviour-

also posted earlier here

After Mao and Deng departed most of their leaders are of non military variety- they do not have pull in PLA. These leaders are afraid of PLA coup on them. hence they agree to military demands. Recall Mao and Deng did not rattle much regarding taiwan, japan, tibet etc. Deng in fact said - leave these issues to later generations. Improve the lot of people now in 1970s. The present leaders(1990s onwards) are not from military and less powerful. PLA takes a hawkish stand. Hence the border problems and increasing budget to PLA, strident nationalistic stand on seemingly mundane things. Jiang zemin during his stewardship painted himself in a corner with japan and taiwan. He had to reinvent himself as a nationalistic working for reunification. Later on nationalism became a tiger unleashed with no end in sight.

chinese is playing a good bad cop routine- PLA is bad cop. CCP good cop. Both have same goals of continued rule over chinese , reunification, and become lord of the universe. For this they have to consolidate their hold on aam chinese. Similar to the pakis.
Overall they are on dangerous brinkmanship. But mature democracies like India are prone to react cautiously in conciliatory tones to this. Mainly because war is terrible with losses to both winners and losers(India is no pushover).

(Point to note-USA and former USSR fought wars away from their lands )

China is a tad more clever than pakis.
China will not wage war on India directly. CCP/PLA hold on people will be undermined despite winning or losing due to unforeseen circumstances, but will support pakis in it. pakis are like rabid dogs- with India in their sights.

Yes china will up the ante vis vis India through anymeans short of actual war directly.

It is less useful to give brahmos to vietnam than tackling pakis.
Vietnam are more mature and pragmatic than pakis, hence less useful to India in short term but great in long term.
reverse is for china wrt pakis. pakis being paranoid about India will launch anything on India. Hence china has upperhand on India. India has to deal with pakis in its backyard before it thinks outside Indian subcontinent.

[krisna]

This too is a very good strategy. In fact if Indian Muslims rose up against the non Muslims in India, whether they win or lose it would serve Pakistan's purpose. If they win, it proves the superiority of Islam. if they lose, it proves the necessity of Pakistan.

If Indian Muslims do not rise up against non Muslims, the way to provoke them is to make Hindus rise up against Muslims. If Hindus rise against indian Muslims, maybe a percentage of Indian Muslims will fight. Their fight will be Pakistan fight. Their victory will be Pakistan victory. Their defeat will also be Pakistan's victory, creating martyrs who prove that Pakistan is necessary.

So I think it is important to be absolutely open and public about the fact that Pakistan is fighting and exceedingly intelligent and well conceived religious war against India that puts India in a losing situation whether Hindus rise up or Muslims rise up. The worst possible thing for Pakistan is continuing communal amity in India. That reduces the Pakistan plan from the success of "Direct action day" to the random killings of Dehli HC/26-11/Kaluchak etc

excellent post shiv.
Remember a paki saying this in similar terms.

[arun]

X Posted from the Oppression of Minorities in Pakistan thread.

As the Islamic Republic of Pakistan celebrates another “ Defence Day “, a timely reminder of the discrimination that Hindu, Sikh and Christian dhimmi’s who served in the armed forces of the Islamic Republic have had to put up with:

Islamabad discriminates against non-Muslim war heroes

[negi]

Well more than Pakistan it's the GoI that has most to loose with continuing communal amity in India; it's unfair to pull TSP into this there is simply no TSP angle to the religious/communal divide in India. In fact it's the GoI and obivisouly the states ruled by pseudo-secular cabal which have been putting more pressure on the faultlines by disecting each and every issue based on religious/communal grounds. The apparent religious dilemna with regards to taking action against TSP is again GoI manufactured which has now manifested itself into a typical chicken and egg problem.

[shiv]

it's unfair to pull TSP into this there is simply no TSP angle to the religious/communal divide in India.

Negiji this is among the most ignorant statements I have read on BR recently. Coming from you I am surprised. What prompted you to say that?

[parsuram]

SKumar: You are mistaken in thinking that covert ops within paki stan, against the pakis means turning "criminal". All niti & artha shastras clearly segrigate State actions from Dharma & Rit, which are ristricted to personal, social morality. There are no "criminal" acts between States.

parsuram,
None of our "niti & artha shastras" would condone the acts suggested which would involve killing of innocents viz. "kill pakiness in their respective little zones of the pakis, join in every time sectarian terror strikes the pakis. prolong every incident. Cause new ones if a lull threatens. But escalate tearing apart the fabric of this miserable collection of sewer scum suckers called the paki state"

I would like to believe / hope that we are different, not soft, just different. This would not mean or suggest a passive stand. I wish we had the courage to take the fight into Pakistan on several legimitate targets that we could engage and not "attack their miserable infrastructure. bridges, trains, dams power stations and on and on and on". But all we have been doing is talk of being in a war instead of actually fighting one.

Our foreign policy is compromised, our government connives and conspires with foreign governments into fooling their own people, the people of India, to think that their government is intent on taking action. So, what can we really expect from them in terms of national security?

Well, SKumar, I really do not know how familiar you are with the various Niti and Artha Shastras, but I am afraid I have to shatter some of your illusions in these matters. First, in a broader sense, our traditions, unlike those of Judeo-Christian- Islamic societies do not separate and focus Good and Evil into separate poles, like north-south of a magnet. Our traditions do not have a personage like a Satan/Shaitan who is pure evil and the antithesis of God. For us, good & bad coexist among us, and it is for us to strive always to use both good and bad for noble ends. Thus it is that we have manifestations of Uma/Parvati as Durga/kali etc. From the broader, coming to specifics, let me quote to you from the Kanik Niti as it appears in as a lecture by Kanik to King Dhritrashtra (Aadi parva ch.20). Following excerpts are from the 3 vol set in Hindi that I have. The translations are mine and reasonable accurate, but you are welcome to check them out from better sources.

“Enemies that seek to destroy us should be killed. That is what those well versed in state craft will approve and praise”.

“No matter how great a warrior (parakrami) the individual enemy, seeing him in peril, you should destroy (nasht) him”.

“He has come seeking shelter from me - should not be a consideration in destroying your enemy. Only his destruction will free your land of fear”.

“Concentrate on destroying your enemies, and kill all their supporters and helpers(sahayak aur sambandh rakhne wale sabhi log)”.

“Those (enemies) whome you wish to kill quickly, burn them in their home”.

“Places of commerce, public gathering places, places where (alcoholic) drinks are consumed, public cross roads, public wells, woods, hills, and any place where crowds gather is where you keep your agents for secretly gathering information”

SKumar, I am sure you get the idea. If you need more, you will find it in the MB. What I have suggested is entirely in line with these sentiments towards enemies from our ancestors of thousands of years ago. I know that you are sincere when you say that you would like to believe/hope that we are different… etc. But I also sincerely believe that our ancestors pretty much got it right when it came to maintaining the national trust of providing security for our people. It was entirely unfortunate that succeeding generations, particularly about 1200 years ago, forgot these essential lessons. I think you have bought too much into the western narrative of Geneva conventions etc., regrettably forgetting the genocide it took and the sheer costs in human, material and environmental terms that were needed to establish and develop, and now maintain the United States at the apex of western civilization. If you still have lingering doubts about the realism of our ancient national security paradigms, recall the burning of Lanka in the Ramayana, and consider that thousands of innocents died in that so just a war. It is very simple, really, and the best I can state it is as follows: A civilization can grow, prosper and endure almost perpetually provided (1) it peoples are gentle, kind, polite, caring, with a love of learning, and of building enduring institutions, and abide by just laws; as well as (2) its peoples have the fortitude and the intellect to be more barbaric than the worst barbarians, more uncivilized and brutal than the worst uncivilized hordes when they need to be, so that civilizations are not destroyed by uncouth, brutal and uncivilized barbarians because the civilized people were bound to uphold their own civilization’s rules- all the way to a mass suicide. Sadly, this is a truth that western europe is oblivious of in face of a determined assault upon it from the Islamic people. And India had also better get up and smell the weather as storms gather around it.

[Kamboja]

... Islamic tanzeems are the Pakistan army's special forces. In 1965 the TSPA used the SSG in mufti. That failed, but trained men in civilian garb has been the TSPA's modus operandi for 5 decades now.

I suspect that there is a worry in official Indian circles that as the Pakistan state structure collapses, Pakistan will just become a mass of "tanzeems" who will keep on inflicting "pinpricks" for decades, and never allow Indian internal security to be completely dependable by attacking soft targets at random as they have been doing for decades now.

Shivji,

One humble disagreement with this POV you've posted. I agree that TSP can be characterized as regular forces -- the TSPA, the bureaucracy, etc. -- complementing the irregulars, which are the terror outfits; and that the latter can be a source of continuous 'pinpricks' to us even without winning victory. I also agree that were TSP to fall apart, the likelihood is that Pakjab would be nothing more than a festering mass of such terror outfits.

Where I disagree is that this greater mass of terrorist outfits would be able to continue to inflict proportionally greater damage on India, because I think it overlooks the fact that those who wish to inflict the pinpricks must 'stand on the shoulders' of the regular forces of TSP in order to reach India and insert their pins.

In other words -- while the terror tanzeems can provide the cannon fodder, the propagandu, some rudimentary training, maybe even some funding and small arms, it takes the entire modern support infrastructure of the ISI to channel drug money from Afghanistan, heavy weapons from Paki ordinance factories, training from SSG commandus, fake passports, entry into India and stay at safehouses, et cetera. 26/11-like attacks would not have been possible if Pakistan were simple a collection of Somalias, because it required the 'deep state' ISI to organize recon months in advance, provide fake currency, cultivate local contacts for months if not years, channel logistics through Bangladesh and Nepal, and perhaps most importantly act as the shield against Indian fury... all of which would be beyond the capabilities of a hundred or even thousand terror tanzeems collectively, if they had not an ISI to marshal them.

If TSP collapses into a mess of terror tanzeems, we will have constant trouble at the border, but only at the border -- no more incursions into the heartland because that would be beyond the scope of the little feudal terror tanzeems, whereas now those those tanzeems can avail of the services of the entire state (i.e. the ISI) to penetrate anywhere in India... as sadly demonstrated so often in the recent past.

[Prem]

it's unfair to pull TSP into this there is simply no TSP angle to the religious/communal divide in India.

Negiji this is among the most ignorant statements I have read on BR recently. Coming from you I am surprised. What prompted you to say that?

I can well understand where Negi is coming from. We cant use Paoq excuse when some of our Sikkas are Khotta while our own Hakims keep telling us otherwise. Every thinking indian is now afraid that Doggy Raja Paradigm rule the roost while social fabric of India is being torn away, internal cohesion undermined by irrational appeasement for temporaray political gains.The current GOI is the most disaapointing after 62 and most idiotic after V.P Singh's .

[arun]

X Posted from the Pakistani Role in Global Terrorism thread.

US Senator Mark Kirk’s scathing attack:

Kirk Delivers Address Following Navy Reserve Assignment in Afghanistan

Kirk: Reconsidering Benefit of Aid to Pakistan …………………………..

Tuesday, Sep 6 Afghans are most victimized by their neighbors, the Pakistanis. I first served as a reservist in Afghanistan in 2008. I believed that Pakistan was "complicated," that "we have many interests there" and that we must advance "diplomatically." I no longer agree with that.

Pakistan has become the main threat to Afghanistan. Pakistan's intelligence service is the biggest danger to the Afghan government. It is also a tremendous threat to the lives of American troops. Let me be clear: many Americans died in Afghanistan because of Pakistan's ISI.

As much as the Pakistani officials claim otherwise, the Haqqanis are backed and protected by Pakistan's own intelligence service. Statements by Pakistani government officials to the contrary are direct lies.

The Haqqani network kills Americans, attacks the elected government of Afghanistan and remains protected in its Pakistani headquarters of Miriam Shah. Without that Pakistani safe haven, it would suffer the same fate as Al Qaeda. Afghan and U.S. Special Operations teams take out many Talibancommanders and operators each night but numerous key Haqqani leaders spend all day planning attacks on Americans in Afghanistan -- then sleep soundly in their beds in Pakistan.

In such an environment, and with our deficits and debt, aid to Pakistan seems naive at best and counter-productive at worst. I am seriously reconsidering and rethinking how well aid to Pakistan served us.

Read it all;

Mark Kirk

[sanjaykumar]

India being in a Catch 22 situation, with respect to the trans national communalism incorporating Pakistan, is a dated analysis.

Pakistan's strategy has shown serious flaws, exposed none other than by the sponsor of the putative stalemate.
In 1995, yes India was constrained by the potential havoc creatable by Pakistan.

Pakistan has ably demonstrated that the schisms can run amok in an Islamic utopia, Sunni-Shia, various ethnicities, privelged sub-Shia groups (Khwaja, if only because Jinnah was one), provincialism especially Baluchistan, Islamists vs the privelged whiskey swilling class, Islamists vs army, Islamists vs Pakistan, upper riparian vs lower, Muslims vs Christians as well as Sikhs and Hindus, military vs civilian. And of course Muslim Pakistan and the rest of the civilised world. The only worth while news out of Pakistan on any given day is that there was no bomb blast.

And here is India- with an expanding economy, increasing intolerance of privilege, increasing inclusiveness. steadily ascending global acceptability of Indians, soft power ie there is actually culture in India outside the Book.

As a middle class is created among Indian Muslims and as freedom to pursue economic betterment is added to freedom of religion, there is cultivated a very powerful constituency for domestic peace. I believe it is patronising of Indian Muslims to assume that they are powder keg waiting to vent their fury. They fear Pakistan more than Hindus-because they know they are a crazed Mullah away from experiencing the same.

[shiv]

Negiji this is among the most ignorant statements I have read on BR recently. Coming from you I am surprised. What prompted you to say that?

I can well understand where Negi is coming from. We cant use Paoq excuse when some of our Sikkas are Khotta while our own Hakims keep telling us otherwise. Every thinking indian is now afraid that Doggy Raja Paradigm rule the roost and social fabric of India is being torn away, internal cohesion undermined by irrational appeasement for temporaray political gains.The current GOI is the most disaapointing after 62 and most idiotic after V.P Singh's .

Thank you. So Islamist terrorism in India is now an internal political issue as per both you and Negi-ji and Pakistan is not to be brought in. Good. Now I know why we are doing so well in fighting terror.

Of course I disagree. To me this is a sort of "high hopes" game in which we hope that the morons who take over after the Sonia Maino Cabal will somehow solve all problems. I am willing to wait to see this happen. I only worry about the disappointment we are likely to face when a bunch of patriots like the last BJP government hand over jailed terrorists to Pakistan. I won't be disappointed though. i am only expecting continuing blundering by India and continuing terrorism because of <fill in the blank to your liking>________________________________.

[Prem]

Hakim Sahib,
What made you conjure up Post Maino Morions, BJP etc ? One Doggy Raja is enough to alert the terrorists from the scheming Indians . When Moron Bukhari tells MMS "kusch kar denge" or when MMS announxe the first right of Muslims over Indian resources or when Sacchar Conspiracy gets current leadership's endorsement for religious reservation in national Security Insititutions and examplez are many then Sir Aam Anna Ram Dev Singh Swami Iyer start wondering how far he can go with Ram Dhun and hard work. there are both internal and external factors in current terrorist activities going on in india and common sense dictate to handle both of them to secure the country. In Massa , oath is taken to fight against both internal and external enemies. Same case apply to india.

[negi]

Shiv saar no excuses for being short on words but Prem pra has more or less conveyed what I wanted to say. From my vantage point as I see things it goes without saying that China and TSP combine would always prefer India to be pre-occupied with her internal feuds and same holds true for us, but these both have little control over internal developments in India, specially when it comes to the religious atmosphere in our country it's us (our Government) who pretty much are in control of things in India. TSP of course does feed on the religious divide but as far as I can recall it has hardly been able to deepen the existing faultlines. B Raman made a very good point about the need to analyse the reports of Hindu groups being involved in acts of terror; while the judiciary will take it's own sweet time to come out with a verdict on Malegaon and Ajmer blasts as a citizen the question that bothers me is if there is any truth to above , what has caused some Hindus to indulge in such acts ? Isn't this time for GoI to introspect and revisit it's take on issues specially those where it tends to take a religious slant when it's not even neccessary ? I also realise that in many of the cases it was not an intentional goof up on part of our adminstration but it's the 'inaction' or eternal delay in carrying out the verdicts of our constitutional institutions like the Judiciary which has worsened the problem. Afzal guru's case is a classic example of how delay/inaction eventually becomes a yet another catalyst for religious acrimony in our country. TSP and it's sleeper cells merely feed on such things.

Shiv ji one last thing I have no love lost for the baboons in the BJP let's not make it a INC vs BJP thing; this disease of seeing religion and bringing it into every other policy making process is something which cuts across party lines.

[sum]

So I think it is important to be absolutely open and public about the fact that Pakistan is fighting and exceedingly intelligent and well conceived religious war against India that puts India in a losing situation whether Hindus rise up or Muslims rise up. The worst possible thing for Pakistan is continuing communal amity in India. That reduces the Pakistan plan from the success of "Direct action day" to the random killings of Dehli HC/26-11/Kaluchak etc

So, basically it is TSP which has India stuck in a monkey trap...

[SRoy]

A lot of experienced folks are deliberately trying to confuse state sponsored Islamic terrorism with communal disturbances? Saying only maintaining "communal harmony", which comes at expense of only one community, defeats Pakistan's agenda, are they not again repeating the line pushed by WKKs and DDMs?

[Arjun]

Thank you. So Islamist terrorism in India is now an internal political issue as per both you and Negi-ji and Pakistan is not to be brought in. Good. Now I know why we are doing so well in fighting terror.

That's a strange argument. Isn't the fact that Islamic terrorism is now an internal political issue only a natural corollary of the undoubtedly brilliantly-argued thesis that India must be seen to be completely 'non-threatening' to Pakistan ? How can one appear totally non-threatening to Pakistan and yet accuse it of fomenting terror ?

[negi]

SRoy no one is confusing things ; they are crystal clear i.e. Pakistan might thrive on religious acrimony in India but that does not imply it is responsible for the latter. It is mostly our own undoing.

[Narad]

Rudradev Ji, your views about china are pretty much similar to Mr Bharat Verma's assessment.

[rohitvats]

Low grade, low cost war is therefore permanently affordable for Pakistan and it makes eminent sense for the TSPA and the Islamic groups to unite in their cause against India. The only groups in a regular standing army such as the Indian Army or the US army that operate in small groups are highly autonomous and covert are the special forces. Islamic tanzeems are the Pakistan army's special forces. In 1965 the TSPA used the SSG in mufti. That failed, but trained men in civilian garb has been the TSPA's modus operandi for 5 decades now.

What do they gain?
1. Regular "successes" that enable them to sustain morale
2. A constant creation of "martyrs" which are needed to maintain a sense of grievance for which revenge needs to be taken
3. The hope that if they keep it up long enough events will somehow turn in their favor and victory will be theirs at some unspecified future date.
4. Ever bit of pain inflicted on India is useful as a rallying point. The more the turmoil in India after even relatively minor attacks the more their cause is supported.

<SNIP>

Adding a few more thoughts.

I think it is important to point out that there is a very real Islamic jihad/ religious war component in Pakistan constant terrorist attack against India. With virtually no non Muslims Pakistan does not need secularism and they realise that sparking a religious war in India will do exactly what is needed:

<SNIP>

Shiv, thanks for the detailed reply.

When I wrote about Hindu-Muslim faultline as a strategic objective, I had in mind what you have eloquently bought out. Also, the fact that it has religious colours, has become obvious and IMO, the real cause of worry.

So, in the end, the objective is strategic in nature with the need to feed the tanzeems, keep them busy and, to gain tactical advantages like getting the people together, the short to medium term objectives.

When I say that religious angle has become real cause of worry, I allude to its impact on perceptions in the mind of perpetrators and its ability to distort thinking. In an ideal scenario, Intel agency A will use external agents and get them to do the dirty work. It will play on their psyche (motivations/fears/greed) and use them as cat's paw. Agency A can push the levers as and when required or, disengage completely - something CIA did in case Soviet occupation of Afg.

However, in case of ISI/TSPA, the handlers have themselves started indentifying with the agents and their motives - and this leads to a dangerous situation. As you've put it, these people will never stop. If nothing, they will manufacture a requirement/need/justification for their acts. All this inaction from our side, will only feed into their pre-concieved notions of weak SDREs who can be put into their place with couple of knocks - and galvanize them into more such actions. The handlers will start to loose the plot and somewhere, it might become free for all.

However, I still feel that it has yet to reach that stage. As you've said - ISI/TSPA is running a sophisticated campaing against India where they're meeting their tactical and short-term objectives with the ultimate aim of fissure in major faultline. And here in lies the major catch - the way religious bug had bitten them, they will be quite happy with continuing these attacks just to meet their short-term requirements and see the kaffirs bleed. If the faultline ruptures, that might be a bonus.