India-Myanmar news and discussion

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 03 Jul 2011 01:57

Australia urges Myanmar to free 2,000 detainees
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 57/1/.html

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 19 Jul 2011 04:11

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After being a strong critic of the Myanmar junta, India muted its criticism and dropped its vocal support for Suu Kyi since mid-1990s to help pursue its "Look East" policy aimed at strengthening India's economic links with the rapidly growing economies in East and Southeast Asia.

More important has been the realization that China's profile in Myanmar has grown at an alarming pace.

India's ideological obsession with democracy made sure that Myanmar drifted toward China.

India has been forced to take a more realistic appraisal of the developments in Myanmar and shape its foreign policy accordingly. India had few options other than to substantively engage the junta as Beijing's trade, energy and defense ties with Myanmar surged.

As India realized that one of its closest neighbors and a major source of natural gas, Myanmar, is coming under China's orbit, it reversed its decades-old policy of isolating the Burmese junta and has now begun to deal with it directly.
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Rony · Post by **Rony** » 13 Aug 2011 00:54

Myanmar a gateway to Indian 'expansionism'

This year marks two decades since India's P V Narasimha Rao administration first urged policymakers and businessmen to "Look East" towards the goldmine of resources and investment potential in emerging Southeast Asia. Nowhere has that policy shift been more profoundly felt than in Myanmar, where New Delhi had previously supported the Aung San Suu Kyi-led democratic opposition but is now entrenched in the military's camp.

While aspirations of emerging as a political and economic powerhouse were long held in New Delhi, it only became apparent in the early 1990s that the mix of market economics and access to cheap resources could propel peripheral countries outside of the Western hemisphere to prosperity.

Tied to this was a realization that stronger relations with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would allow India to leverage into the foreign investment and thriving open markets that had fueled fast growth there without putting all its economic eggs in the United States' basket.

The "Look East" policy gained full expression last year when Myanmar's junta chief General Than Shwe made a high-profile visit to India. Although elections last November allowed the hermetic 77-year-old dictator to drift into the shadows of the Myanmar's emerging new political landscape, his efforts to play competing big nations off against one another, including most notably China and India, is expected to guide new president Thein Sein's foreign policy.

In this regard, Rao's legacy is still relevant. As minister of external affairs prior to assuming the premiership in 1991, Rao had watched as China aggressively co-opted many of the strategic states near its borders, including Myanmar. In response, Rao as premier oversaw a policy that simultaneously aimed to counterbalance China's rising influence and secure access to resources, including oil and gas, that would foster the country's transition to a market-driven economy.

While Rao's courting of Myanmar's military generals after years of Indian support for the democratic opposition was viewed among many in New Delhi's political elite as a pragmatic step forward, it sparked outrage among those who had taken pride in India's post-independence status as something of a moral anomaly in a region where governments place a premium on political sovereignty and economic self-interest, often at the expense of neighboring countries. Prior to Rao coming to office, India's overt support for Myanmar's pro-democracy opposition was clearly out of step with the so-called "Asian way" of non-interference in other countries domestic affairs and more in line with the Western values of human rights and democracy promoted as policy by the US and European countries. At the time, many Asian leaders found the West's emphasis on such values as pernicious, out of place and a potential destabilizing impediment to much-needed economic growth.

While siding with the West had put India on an ostensibly higher moral ground, touted in its claim to be the world's largest democracy, there was a feeling in New Delhi at the time that it was a somewhat archaic position, particularly as emerging economies to the east that embraced the "Asian way" sped forth to prosperity.

In 1993, the same year that China's and Singapore's leaders at the World Conference on Human Rights in Vienna told the Bill Clinton administration to think twice about placing progress on human rights as a top foreign policy goal, India made a distinct policy u-turn and the "Look East" policy began to take shape. The Rao administration began to make its first overtures to Myanmar's rights-abusing military regime in March 1993 when then foreign secretary J N Dixit traveled to Yangon to meet with the junta's prime minister Khin Nyunt. While opposition leader Suu Kyi received that same year India's prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru award, her supporters were concerned by signs of strengthening bilateral ties with the regime that five years earlier had opened fire on and killed thousands of pro-democracy protestors. (Jawaharlal Nehru and Myanmar's first civilian leader, U Nu, had forged a close relationship as a result of shared grievances over their former colonizer)

Oil and arms
Fast-forward to the present and India has become the fourth-largest investor in Myanmar and one of only eight countries known to regularly supply its army with lethal weaponry.

Yet anger about the policy shift continues to boil among activists, many of whom gathered last month in New Delhi to protest what they claimed was India's contribution through arms sales to the now escalating conflict between Myanmar's army and ethnic insurgent groups. But those calls for restraint are unlikely to be heeded among India's realpolitik hawks who over the past two decades have reshaped the country's regional outlook.

The Indian military has also pointed to the threat of separatist groups operating along its 1,640-kilometer porous eastern border with Myanmar as reason enough to bolster its neighbor's military capabilities. The two sides have signed various security pacts in recent years and India has embarked on a project to develop infrastructure along that remote frontier, allowing for quicker deployment of border forces and artillery to tackle the separatists who cross back and forth across the border.

Beyond security concerns, India is keen to deepen its alliance with Naypyidaw to foster access to Myanmar's widely coveted energy resources and open the way for road and rail links to the mainland ASEAN economies. New Delhi's regular overtures to Naypyidaw on issues like border security have been accompanied by economic sweeteners, most recently in the form of ten heavy duty rice silos designed to protect grains during natural disasters.

The package was gifted to Myanmar foreign minister Wunna Maung Lwin during a June meeting with his Indian counterpart S M Krishna, one of the first foreign dignitaries to break ground with the new elected Myanmar government.

Concerns over China's rising influence, both in the region and over Myanmar, are not confined to India. Last month US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid a visit to New Delhi, ostensibly to boost bilateral trade but with more significant emphasis on security cooperation.

Some analysts believe the meeting points towards a new gambit to develop a more cohesive regional front against Beijing. The US, whose influence in the region has greatly waned in recent decades, is now courting a number of Asian countries and groups whom until recently it had considered too risky to engage or superfluous to its policy objectives.

China, in turn, has been public about its concerns over strengthening US-India ties, saying that the US is attempting to draw India into its orbit as it seeks a new strategic partner in the region. By certain measures, that embrace is already evident. The US is close to pipping Russia as India's biggest weapons supplier and recent US state visits to the country are surrounded by notable pomp and circumstance. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made a rare appearance at New Delhi's airport last year to personally greet US president Barack Obama when he touched down.

By forging a stronger alliance with India, Washington may or may not lock horns with New Delhi over its Myanmar policy. The US has long supported Suu Kyi and her political movement's quest for democracy but a recent State Department policy review encouraged more engagement and less isolation of Myanmar's military rulers.

Elsewhere in the region, the Obama administration has compromised its proclaimed promotion of human rights and democracy in its quest to counterbalance China. Last year it re-established ties it had earlier cut due to concerns over rights abuses with Indonesia's controversial military outfit Kopassus. The move came after Jakarta suggested it would look to China for military assistance if Washington didn't rethink its sanctions. Similar criticism of duplicity has followed Washington's counter-balancing embrace of Vietnam's rights-abusing communist regime.

By assisting India's now aggressive military expansion, Myanmar's pro-democracy opposition has started to question the seeming duplicity of the US touting itself as a friend while simultaneously arming a chief weapons supplier of its foe. Some in the opposition believe the US, too, has begun to "Look East" and subjugated its previous commitment to promoting rights and democracy in Myanmar to the broader strategic policy aim of counterbalancing China.

Myanmar has thus become a new testing ground for great power competition, a gambit that first opened two decades ago with Rao's shift from principled to self-centered diplomacy.

Francis Wade is a Thailand-based journalist with the Democratic Voice of Burma.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Aug 2011 03:11

Asia Times has been infiltrated by EJs and Lifafas long ago. their tone and general attitude shows this. the above article is no different. also, the author's name and the organization he works for is very relevant. EJs want Burma to be the next place they harvest. Marxism has destroyed whatever belief systems they had and is paving the way for EJs.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 16 Aug 2011 03:18

Suu Kyi to have first talks with new Myanmar govt
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNew ... 94499.html

Democratic and united Myanmar will be a supportive nation to India!

kshatriya · Post by **kshatriya** » 19 Aug 2011 10:32

Recently got this from a collector. Not sure why British called it "Commemoration" This postcard was issued in 1st April 1937.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 10 Sep 2011 04:26

Security forces confirm Myanmar ops against NE militants

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"There are reports of Myanmar launching an offensive against Indian rebels at their unified camp in the Taga area of Kachin region, which is close to Indian territory. This place houses Ulfa's mobile military headquarters and also serves as the base of eight other outfits of Manipur, including the NSCN (K)," a key security official said.
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Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 10 Sep 2011 05:02

MKB points out that as far as Myanmar is concerned, Hindi-Chini bhai bhai onlee, while Unkil is the villain.
China, India on the same side in Myanmar

The ‘great game’ is hotting up on India’s eastern borders, with renewed American focus on the two oil and gas pipelines that China is constructing along western Myanmar straddling that country. It is an explosive mix of energy security and China’s access to the Persian Gulf and African oil producing countries that is provoking the US-sponsored campaign by Thailand-based self-styled Myanmarese ‘environmentalists’.

India is also somewhat at the receiving end of the campaign since the consortium building the 3900-kiolmetre long pipelines includes ONGC Videsh. China offered stakes (8.35% in equity) in the project to ONGC Videsh and the Indian company apparently was willing to accept, involving a total investment of around 250 million dollars. The third party in the Chinese consortium is South Korea’s Daewoo (25.4% equity), while China holds 50.9% equity in the project.

One of the pipelines will be transporting gas from gas fields with an estimated 4.5 trillion bcm reserves in the Bay of Bengal to China. What is galling for the US is probably that the second pipeline can transport around 22 million barrels of oil to China’s Yunan province directly from the Middle East and Africa. The Chinese strategy is to reduce its dependency as far as as possible on the Malacca Straits through which over three quarters of China’s oil imports currently get transported.

The US-sponsored ‘environmentalists’ and Myanmarese exile groups in Thailand have warned of ‘armed conflicts’ threatening the security of the pipelines. But China, undeterred, is pressing ahead with the project due for completion in 2013. Both China and Myanmar seem to take the US campaign as the stuff of bluster.

During his address in the Indian parliament last October, President Barack Obama had exhorted the Indian leadership to stand up and be counted on the US campaign regarding the human rights situation and democracy deficit in Myanmar. But Delhi, wisely enough, isn’t listening. Not only that, China and India find themselves on the same side in the energy project in Myanmar, contrary to the conventional wisdom of pundits that the scramble for resources by the two regional powers would get played out in bitter rivalry in Myanmar in zero-sum terms.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 10 Sep 2011 05:12

kshatriya wrote:Recently got this from a collector. Not sure why British called it "Commemoration" This postcard was issued in 1st April 1937.

Probably put out by an oversmart squirt with a sardonic sense of humor in the Brit colonial reich, gloating over how they are surgically severing the chords that bound the world's oldest and most balanced civilizations together. Hopefully in time they will find out that, much as they have tried to re-"make" (break) the world to suit themselves, these chords are not severed, but merely elastic bands that will soon gather what's been scattered. Just needs a few level-headed souls in India and China to work things out anew.

sum · Post by **sum** » 10 Sep 2011 09:34

^^ Channels reporting that Paresh barauh shot at by Myanmar forces during ops..

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 10 Sep 2011 19:16

ULFA chief Paresh Baruah reportedly shot at, injured by Myanmarese army

Post a Comment September 10, 2011 – 2:45 pm By News Desk | Permalink | Print This Article |

New Delhi, Sep.10 (ANI): The commander-in-chief of the banned United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), Paresh Barua, reportedly been shot at and injured by the Myanamarese Army soldiers in the jungles of northwest Myanmar.

Sources were quoted by NDTV, as saying that Baruah has survived the attack. The channel said he was with some rebels when he was detected by the Myanmarese army and fired upon.

The ULFA recently had unconditional talks with Indian Home Ministry officials in an attempt to usher peace in insurgency-hit Assam.

An ULFA delegation met Home Ministry officials and Home Minister P. Chidambaram in February and again last week.

Baruah, however, has skipped both of these meetings.

He is still at large issuing threats and carrying out attacks. He wants sovereignty as a pre-condition for talks.(ANI)

These operations were reportedly financed and arms had been provided for it by GoI

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 13 Sep 2011 07:40

Asia's New Great Game: China and India are both hungry for Burma's vast natural riches. But will Burma's people pay the price or can this Southeast Asian backwater finally enter the 21st century?

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 15 Sep 2011 07:27

Myanmar acts on Indian concerns, but doesn’t deliver

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 05 Oct 2011 09:35

China be dam(ned), Myanmar suspends collaboration on Irrawaddy project

By B Raman.

It remains to be seen of the Myanmar govt, will revisit the decision later on or not.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Oct 2011 18:07

Published on Oct 14, 2011
By C. Raja Mohan
The road to Naypyidaw: Indian Express

Delhi is more interested in getting a first-hand account of Sein’s plans to reorient Myanmar at home and abroad. His surprising and positive effort to implement long overdue political reform, reclaim Myanmar’s rightful role in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and rebuild bridges with the United States and the West, opens up unexpected space for Dr Singh to embark on some creative diplomacy with our very special neighbour to the east.

Much like India’s outreach to Vietnam, whose president Truong Tan Sang was here in Delhi earlier this week, India’s engagement with Myanmar is bound to be seen as part of an unfolding geopolitical rivalry with China.

The impulse to see India’s relationship with each of these two important Asian nations as a zero-sum-game — that gains for one are losses for the other — is a lot greater in relation to Myanmar.

While Vietnam and Myanmar are two large nations that are capable of influencing the balance of power in Asia, the latter is on the periphery of both India and China. India and Vietnam are both neighbours of China, but do not share land borders with each other. Myanmar in contrast shares long land borders with India (about 1,600 km) and China (nearly 2,200 km).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Oct 2011 21:38

CRM should stop projecting US interests when he wants to be the seen as successor for K Sub.
How relevant is to India that Mynamar wants to resume ties with US? Especially when US doesn't even recognise the very name Myanmar?

This confusing India's interests with US interest is the rock on which Indian strategists flounder.
They should learn to make the case with just India in mind.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Oct 2011 21:50

Pioneer:

India unveils $500 mn for Myanmar, to expand security ties
Friday, 14 October 2011 15:00 IANS | New Delhi

In a major diplomatic initiative, India Friday unveiled $500 million for a host of developmental projects for Myanmar and decided to expand security cooperation with the energy-rich Southeast Asian nation that also enjoys close ties with Beijing.
{Myanmar is not a South East Asian country idiot. Its in the Indian sub-continent and is a member of SAARC}

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh held talks with Myanmar President U. Thein Sein on a host of issues, including the intensification of economic, energy and security cooperation between the two countries.

Thein Sein, who is on his maiden visit to India since the election of a civilian government early this year, was accorded a ceremonial reception at Rashtrapati Bhavan before he sat down for talks with Manmohan Singh.

Marking a major upsurge in bilateral ties, Manmohan Singh announced a $500 million line-of-credit to Myanmar for a host of projects, including irrigation projects. This is in addition to nearly $300 million India had extended earlier for several infrastructural projects, including the development of railways, transport, power transmission lines and oil refinery.

{So total ~$800 million line of credit to Mynamar.}

India also announced a raft of initiatives to expand its involvement in capacity building that include the setting up of an Advanced Centre for Agricultural Research and Education (ACARE) in Yezin, a Rice Bio Park and an IT training institute in Mandalay.

Significantly, Manmohan Singh lauded Thein Sein on steps taken by him to spur "the transition towards democratic government" and offered all necessary assistance in further strengthening this democratic transition in an inclusive and broadbased manner.

"The visit represented the first state visit to India following the swearing-in of a new government in Myanmar in March 2011 that marks welcome progress in moving towards an open and democratic framework," said a joint statement after the talks.

In an important step, the two sides agreed on "enhancing effective cooperation and coordination between the security forces of the two countries in tackling the deadly menace of insurgency and terrorism", the joint statement said.

Thein Sein, who began his four-day state visit to India Wednesday, assured India that Myanmarese territory would not be allowed for insurgent activities directed against India.

"The two leaders reiterated the assurance that the territory of either would not be allowed for activities inimical to the other and resolved not to allow their respective territory to be used for training, sanctuary and other operations by terrorist and insurgent organizations and their operatives," said the joint statement.

Bolstering border management mechanisms figured prominently in delegation-level talks.

Stressing their "unequivocal and uncompromising position against terrorism", the two sides decided to bolster institutional mechanisms for sharing of intelligence to combat the menace of insurgency, arms smuggling and drug trafficking.

The two leaders also discussed a swathe of infrastructure projects that will enhance connectivity between the Southeast Asian nation and India's northeastern states.

The two sides decided to speed up the construction of India-aided $120 million Sittwe deep water port with a view to making it operational by June 2013.

The port, when completed, will act as a trade gateway for India's northeastern states to Southeast Asia by allowing cargo vessels from India's landlocked state Mizoram to navigate the the Kaladan River and connects them to Myanmar and the East Asia region.

Voicing satisfaction at the implementation of the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project, the two sides decided to start the road component of the project started at the earliest. They also agreed to to open an additional border trade point on the India-Myanmar border to allow for the smooth flow of goods generated by the Kaladan Project.

After the talks, the two sides signed a pact on upgradation of the Yangon Children's Hospital and Sittwe General Hospital. Another pact was signed for programme of cooperation in science & technology from 2012 to 2015.

Need to have the IT companies setup shop in Myanmar to allow the future IT graduates to benefit in the global trade in IT goods and services.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Oct 2011 21:52

Saat Khoon maaf for MMS!

With his India Afghanistan pact and rebuilding ties to Myanmar he has undone a lot of his past khoons!!!

Again Singh is King!!!

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 14 Oct 2011 22:48

I recall a retired Gen saying that the reason why many of these nations weren't doing our security bidding was because we hadn't invested in their economies from the beginning where as the PRC has been investing for a long time, albeit for their own benefit. So we are investing but for the Myanmarese people's benefit.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 14 Oct 2011 23:02

ramana wrote:
With his India Afghanistan pact and rebuilding ties to Myanmar he has undone a lot of his past khoons!!!

Babus have been working on this for more than 10 years.
The moment is right for formal alliance.
The near abroad has to be secure.

We have Nepal and SL still left to do work.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Oct 2011 23:04

It all boils down to money. Nanga Nahhaega kya orr nichore ga kya ? With the xception of Poaktelians, by 2022, almost all of the near and extended neighborhood will be well integrated economically. Economic forces will triumph over prosperity obstructing political elements.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Oct 2011 00:47

Chain Store paradox. TSP will get the stick. Others the sweets.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 15 Oct 2011 02:26

kshatriya wrote:Recently got this from a collector. Not sure why British called it "Commemoration" This postcard was issued in 1st April 1937.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

While they call Bharat Maata they show it as if these provinces (hands) are tied forcefully. The card represents "freedom" for Burma from Bharata Maata.

Will the mother ever tie her children's hands?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 Oct 2011 07:55

Thein Sein Indian Visit - October 2011

Some noteworthy agreements and deals:
1. India has extended $500 million credit.
2. Pact to upgrade Yangon Children's Hospital and Sittwe General Hospital.
3. Programme of Cooperation in Science and Technology for the period of 2012-2015
4. Burma reiterated that its soil would not be used for anti-India activities. Manmohan Singh and Thein Sein agreed on enhancing effective cooperation and coordination between the security forces to thwart terrorist activities and counter insurgencies.
5. The leaders agreed to improve the cooperation in Oil and Gas exploration. Essentially Burma will encourage Indian private and public companies to invest in the energy sectors.
6. Burma expresses interest to reopen Stilwell Road.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 15 Oct 2011 18:46

kshatriya wrote:Recently got this from a collector. Not sure why British called it "Commemoration" This postcard was issued in 1st April 1937.

This was issued by the same groups (i.e Macaulay inspired Brits) within the Brit administration who had an agenda for the 600 states of India solution. Thankfully, Myanmar has survived as one block without going the ethnic separation route, this makes it easier for Bharat to generate ever increasing levels of integration.

Interesting that Myanmar is shown as feminine.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Oct 2011 19:16

Pioneer:

Great Game in Burma Book Review

The book gives a fascinating account of how the India-China rivalry would shape international politics, particularly in Asia, and how Burma is all set to play a significant role in all this, writes Raghu Dayal

Where China Meets India: Burma and the new crossroads of Asia

Author: Thant Myint-U

Publisher: Faber and Faber
Price: Rs 699

Blending history and travelogue with personal reminiscences, author Thant Myint-U, grandson of former UN Secretary-General U Thant, recounts the strategic location of Burma, linking the most far-flung regions of China and India. In the 16th century, the two countries together formed half the world’s economy. Within a generation this could be the case again, the author says. No wonder, the land where the two countries meet — Burma — gains a pre-eminent position in today’s world.

Currently, China’s presence in Burma is all-pervasive. There was, however, a time in the late 19th and early 20th centuries when, with Burma being firmly part of the Indian empire, India was expanding towards China, not the other way around. Burma guarded India’s eastern flank as a buffer against China as well as against the French, who were then moving up the Mekong river from Saigon. British India saw Tibet as part of its “sphere of influence” and western Yunnan as part of its expanding backyard, which is now an integral part of China.

For most of the past 2,000 years, it was India — not China — which enjoyed a close relationship with South-East Asia. The region was known to Indians as Suvarnabhumi, the ‘Land of Gold’. The overwhelming majority of people in Burma, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia profess Buddhism, and more than 90 per cent of people on the island of Bali in Indonesia are Hindu. Indian classics such as the Ramayana are still popular in South-East Asia.

In the early 20th century, as the author says, Burma enjoyed a higher standard of living than India. As its economy grew, there was a need for labour as well as entrepreneurial and professional skills — all of which came from India. By the 1920s, the influx from India turned Rangoon (now Yangoon) into an Indian city, with the Burmese reduced to a minority. But this world came crashing down; the aerial bombing of Rangoon had hundreds of thousands of Indians flee. The Indian population is now only a fraction of what it once was.

Today, the Chinese model is in the ascendancy in South-East Asia. Burma, too, is being drawn into the Chinese economic orbit. Over the past 20 years, China has emerged as the Burmese Government’s most reliable supporter. Beijing has provided hundreds of millions of dollars worth of military hardware, including planes and tanks, as well as crucial diplomatic protection at the United Nations and elsewhere. The Burmese economy is today tied more closely to China’s than at any other time in modern history.

China was once much worse off than Burma. In the 1930s, Burma’s per capita GDP was at least twice that of China’s. By the 1960s, China had caught up. Today, China’s per capita GDP is at least six-times greater.

There has been an unprecedented migration of ethnic Chinese into Burma. Of about a million strong population in Mandalay, at least a third are now the Chinese. Unrestrained China, “a plundering behemoth” as the author says, is ubiquitous in infrastructure projects, building roads and dams, cutting down teak forests, mining for jade, and selling its own consumer goods. By early 2010, construction had begun on the oil and gas pipelines that would connect China’s southwest across Burma to the Bay of Bengal. They would run from Mandalay past Ruili, first to Yunnan and then to the Guangxi autonomous region and the mega city of Chongqing. Like the huge hydroelectric projects on the Irrawaddy and Salween, these pipelines have a strategic dimension as well — a part of resolving what President Hu Jintao called ‘The Malacca Dilemma’ in 2003.

When the Sino-Burmese borders were first opened up in the late 1980s, the first sign of the new China was the flood of cheap Chinese goods into Burmese markets. By the late 1980s, hundreds of factories sprang up across the frontier, producing goods developed specifically for Burmese consumers. Then came the logging on a gargantuan scale. The forests of Burma’s north and east were mercilessly chopped down. In areas close to Burma more than 95 per cent of forest cover has been cut down over the past 30 years and much of the cleared land turned into rubber plantations. The jade mines of the Kachin Hills were another big attraction. Many endangered species — from snow leopards to rhinos — are hunted and shipped. Women, too, have become a commodity.

Initially, it was the US that became the Burmese military Government’s best friend abroad, providing military training and welcoming its then dictator, General Ne Win, to Washington. China would then call Burma’s generals “fascists” and actively plot the regime’s overthrow. Western sanctions pushed Burma’s ruling junta closer to Beijing and created an unusually privileged conditions for Chinese business.

The book gives a fascinating account of how the Sino-Indian rivalry would shape international politics, particularly in Asia, and how Burma is all set to play a key role in all this.

-The reviewer is Senior Fellow, Asian Institute of Transport Development

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 17 Oct 2011 19:40

India burnishes its Myanmar ties

Space for an enhanced Indian role in Myanmar appears to be opening up with Myanmar's new government taking tentative steps towards democratization of the country. Not only will this enable India to engage without inhibitions, Myanmar's rulers could also turn to India for experience in building democratic institutions and processes.

During President U Thein Sein's visit to India last week, for the first time in several decades India's handshake with Myanmar's president was far from awkward.

[...]

India was among a handful of countries that had quietly supported general elections in Myanmar last year. Unlike the West, which focussed on the flaws in the election, Delhi saw in it opportunity for change. It was in fact keen on the NLD contesting the election.
The risk Delhi took in backing the elections appears to have paid off. Myanmar has a long way to go before it can be regarded democratic, but for the first time in five decades there is hope.

While some continue to dismiss Thein Sein's moves as superficial and unlikely to last, Suu Kyi herself has welcomed them, admitting that he seems to want to "achieve positive change".

It was against the backdrop of these positive changes that Thein Sein visited India.

[...]

India signaled its strong support to Thein Sein's reform efforts by announcing a US$500 million credit line to Myanmar - its largest ever - for specific projects, including irrigation. This comes in addition to $300 million of credit extended last year towards construction of railways, roads, power transmission lines and oil refineries.

Congratulating Myanmar's president for "the transition towards democratic government", India "offered all necessary assistance in further strengthening this democratic transition".

Two decades ago, India was among the most vociferous champions of Myanmar's pro-democracy movement. Following the brutal suppression of mass protests in 1988 and in the wake of the NLD's landslide victory in the 1990 elections, it sharply rebuked the military rulers and called on them to hand over power to the NLD. For some years thereafter, its diplomatic efforts were focussed on pushing for restoration of democracy in Myanmar.

Then from the mid-1990s it changed tack. Its "Look East" policy, counter-insurgency operations in the northeast, its interest in Myanmar's energy and other resources as well as China's growing influence in Myanmar forced it to engage with the generals, rather than confront them. This required it to tone down criticism of the junta, especially its human-rights violations.

Consequently, over the past decade, the focus of India's policy towards Myanmar was economic and security cooperation. That has changed in recent months. Increasingly, its engagement is people-centric. As K Yhome, research fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a think-tank in New Delhi, told Asia Times Online in June, India "is now beginning to broad-base this engagement to include cooperation and capacity-building in health, agriculture and education". Agriculture provides employment to two-thirds of Myanmar.

The areas of India-Myanmar cooperation can be expected to expand further to include democratic institution-building, capacity building, people-to-people contact, etc.

As noted Indian political commentator B G Varghese points out, "Rather than be a passive spectator or late actor, India should move energetically to engage the new Thein Sein administration to assist and encourage its transition to full democracy, ethnic reconciliation and economic and social reconstruction at all levels, governmental and non-official.

"Why shouldn't the [Indian] government and credible civil society institutions invite delegations of Burmese parliamentarians, trade representatives, ethnic nationality groups and security analysts to visit India and talk to their counterparts and potential collaborators here? Scholarships and seats in training institutions should be readily on offer as this is perhaps Burma's greatest need. Charter flights should be organized both ways to promote tourism and understanding. And high level Indian political and trade and investment delegations should visit Burma as early as possible," Varghese said.

These steps should help hitherto reclusive Myanmar come out of its isolation.

The Thein Sein government will also be looking to India to convince the United States and Europe to lift sanctions against Myanmar.

There are signs too that Myanmar is seeking to reduce its dependence on China. The Thein Sein government recently suspended a $3.6 billion Myitsone dam project that China was constructing in Kachin State. This is the first time since the two became close allies in 1988 that Myanmar has snubbed Beijing. Should this become more than a one-off tiff between the two, Myanmar can be expected to look for other partners. It could increasingly look to Delhi.

To what extent India will benefit from Myanmar's reported distancing from Beijing depends on how serious the rift is. Many believe that the suspension of the dam project by the Thein Sein government is an eyewash aimed at signaling to the international community that the new government is responsive to the sentiments of the people, especially the ethnic minorities, and that the Sino-Myanmar bond has not weakened.

However, Myanmar's military, their close ties with Beijing post-1988 notwithstanding, distrust the Chinese. Many in the armed forces, especially those of the older generation, were involved in fighting the Burmese Communist Party's armed insurgency for decades. They have not forgotten China's role in nurturing and fueling that insurgency.

And its not just the military that is suspicious of China, the public too, especially in towns like Mandalay that have become Sinicized by the influx of Chinese, are deeply apprehensive of their giant neighbor to the north. Thus, if Myanmar's government persists with being responsive to public sentiment, it will be keen to reduce its extreme dependence on China.

Given its deep distrust of all foreign powers, whether western or Asian, Myanmar will avoid turning too much to India for support through its transition. Yet it is likely that the bilateral bond will deepen in the coming years should it move towards democratization.

However, an expansion in India's role in Myanmar is not inevitable. India has been executing projects in Myanmar at a glacial pace. The Kaladan multimodal transport project [1], the Tamanthi and Shwezaye hydropower projects [2] are running way behind schedule, contributing to a perception in Myanmar that Indian companies, unlike the Chinese, do not deliver on time.

India it seems is its worst enemy in Myanmar. Conditions for an expansion in its role there are ripe. But it will have to pull up its socks if it wants to play a larger role in that country.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 18 Oct 2011 17:59

OK so improvements in Indo-Myanmarese relations are under the aegis of PRC, according to this author. Fits in with the way PRC instructs its other satellites.

China behind Myanmar's course shift

Scratch the veneer of democratic governance in Myanmar and regime survival emerges as the reality that belies seemingly daring moves by President Thein Sein to heed "the will of the people". Efforts to reduce dependence on China and smooth rifts inside the military over strained relations with its northern neighbor - plus a little icing on the cake to induce the lifting of international sanctions - are the real substance behind recent burnish. - Bertil Lintner

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 18 Oct 2011 18:00

^^^ But some continue to hope:
Thein Sein as Gorbachev

The uncertainty over whether to take Thein Sein's reform promises at face value or dismiss developments as a sham echoes the reactions that greeted the first stirring of the profound shift in the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev. If Myanmar really is at a tipping point, the cautious welcome favored by most governments, backed by calls for more concrete action, would appear a prudent response. - Andrew Selth

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Oct 2011 18:04

northern myanmar was a somewhat arid rain shadow type area to start with looking at photos of the WW2 in that region.

if the chinese have been plundering the forests and minerals there, lord alone knows in what shape it is now...

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 18 Oct 2011 18:15

Singha wrote:northern myanmar was a somewhat arid rain shadow type area to start with looking at photos of the WW2 in that region

However meteorological research of future monsoon wind patterns (75-90 years) seem to reveal that the SW Monsoon might shift eastwards, creating overlapping regions in E.India, Central India and Northern Myanmar. These regions experience arid climates almost simultaneously for long stretches of time.

IIRC, the forecast was supposed to be accurate to around 6 years. This was featured in a regional language tv documentary a couple of years ago.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Oct 2011 18:22

Carl wrote:OK so improvements in Indo-Myanmarese relations are under the aegis of PRC, according to this author. Fits in with the way PRC instructs its other satellites.

China behind Myanmar's course shift

China's standard operating procedure is to get its minions to open dialogue with China's competitors. It is a simple strategy. If China's minions can improve their relations with China's rivals, then the rivals will not try to overthrow those minions by supporting still other political actors.

This allows China to continue to wield influence with the minimum of resistance.

Think of PRC telling Prachanda to improve relations with India! Or PRC encouraging Pakistan to mend fences with USA. Or Mahinda Rajapaksa getting all sorts of appeasement from Delhi! Once Bangladesh changes governments, Khaleda Zia too would be asked to mend fences with India, so that India stops supporting Sheikh Hasina Wajed.

The only way to counter this is by

Look for a constituency in the secondary ranks of the party/group with chief aligned to China, and to nurture such a constituency. These can then put pressure on the leadership. In Myanmar we should be looking for friends in the SPDC (the ruling council), Tatmadaw (military) and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (the governing party).
Find an alternate source of overt support to the opposition, which can be a foreign country. Constitute some grouping in India as well, that can support the opposition - military or political. Let the Indian Government do plausible deniability. The covert support should continue, even as officially we show ourselves to be having friendly relations with the regime. For example we should find alternate support for National League for Democracy (NLD), the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, as well as for the Buddhist Monks.
Try to engineer a pro-Indian movement among the populace through vibrant people-to-people contact and respect for the cultures of Myanmar.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Oct 2011 18:23

northern myanmar is split vertically NE to SW by the arakan hills it seems. the west part - continguous to our NE states gets rainfall. but satellite pix show the eastern part esp a huge dustbowl type area centered on mandalay is bare and brown.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 18 Oct 2011 18:46

^^^ If the PRCee mandarins do get hold of the long term meteorological data for the reason (if they havent already), they might be able to divert the waters of the Airavati, Meekong and Salween rivers in Qinghai (even if they choose to leave the Brahmaputra alone), thus obtaining a lot of bargaining power with Myanmar and the rest of Indo-China.

All they would need to do is to create headward erosion of a single river valley and see the effects on the sister river systems. They possess the hard power of the Chengdu mil region nearby if any other state tries to intervene. Its upto India to sort Qinghai out in accordance with the wishes of the Hui, Tu and Salar people if we are to have long term water security for the sub-continent and Indo-China.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 29 Oct 2011 10:25

Published on Oct 28, 2011
By Col R Hariharan
Making India-Burma Relations Meaningful: South Asia Analysis Group

India as a large functional democracy at its doorstep can do a few things for Myanmar, which China despite its economic and strategic clout would not be able to do. India with its better democratic credentials and close relations with the U.S. can help the civilian regime gain full international acceptability ending the sanctions regime. India can be a useful counterpoise for Myanmar in handling China, particularly when China’s strategic ambitions override its acceptance of the civilian regime in Myanmar. India’s growing economic clout and influence in Southeast Asia could be useful in Myanmar’s desire to play a greater international role in the coming years. India also needs a friendly and stable Myanmar on its borders for its own strategic reasons. And Myanmar with its strategic location at the gates of ASEAN can be a useful adjunct to India’s engagement of Southeast Asian nations. Moreover, India’s growing appetite for industrial resources needs access to untapped natural resources including gas and minerals of Myanmar.

Despite this setting, India-Myanmar relations had remained a potted plant. The democratically elected Indian government had always found it difficult to publicly proclaim its support to Myanmar’s military regime as it clashed with its democratic value system. As a result India’s relation with Myanmar was closeted at government level, lacking depth. It was devoid of people to people contact. For reasons of realpolitik, both the ruling and opposition parties in India have largely accepted this dispensation as inevitable in the national interest.

India’s appreciation of Myanmar’s actions to usher in democracy, even of a limited kind, is evident in the joint statement issued after the visit of the Myanmar President. India’s extension of additional $500 million line of credit to Myanmar making a total of $ 800 million in all is a testimony to it.

India is involved in over a dozen projects in infrastructure, IT and oil exploration. Infrastructure projects include up gradation of Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo, Rhi-Tiddim and Rhi-Falam roads and the Kaladan Multimodal Transport Project (KMMTP). The KMMTP which links Mizoram with Myanmar and provides a river based outlet to the port of Sitwe is perhaps strategically the most important of all projects. But India had not been able to execute these projects with the speed they deserve, although the Myanmar bureaucracy is also partly responsible.

Indian public sector companies have not shown their readiness to grab fleeting business opportunities that are coming up as Myanmar is widening its development and a favourable relation with Myanmar exists. Participation of Indian private sector companies could be enhanced now as the Indian line of credit extended so far amounts to $ 800 million. Indian expertise in IT, real time communication services, rail construction and maintenance services are some of the areas not fully exploited to increase Indian presence in Myanmar.

With India-Myanmar trade is set to double at $1.4 billion. Though this may not look very significant it will be about one fourth of China’s estimated figure of $ 4 billion plus. However unlike China, India’s trade lacks variety and depth. But unless direct communication links between India and Myanmar are better established increased trade would continue to be limited to border trade.

India as a flourishing democracy has a much bigger responsibility in helping the growth of democracy in Myanmar. India in the name of strategic security cannot ignore this aspect in its policy making, as it has done since 1992. A good beginning would be to persuade the new government in Myanmar to allow greater people to people contacts between the two countries at the level of students, scholars and academic exchange.

A second important aspect, which India had ignored for long, is the fate of people of Indian origin in Myanmar. From Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru’s times, India had ignored the problems of these people. The present citizenship laws are discriminatory as they do not treat people of Indian origin, born and brought up in Myanmar, on par with ethnic Burmese. With increased assertion of democratic values in Myanmar, time has come for India to persuade Myanmar to amend its citizenship laws to make them more equitable to people of all ethnic origins.

To summarise, the weakness in India’s relations with Myanmar at present is it is largely limited to two governments. The bottom line in improving it is to make it more relevant to the people of both countries by widening its scope and content. While India’s relations with Myanmar cannot be compared with that of the U.S., the growth of Indo-US relations offers a very good example of how such a growth can be achieved.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 Nov 2011 04:10

I have long had difficulty in understanding why none of the Indian "analysts" ever talk about the intricate politics and multi-layered interest groups which "control" the drug trade through Myanmar. one of the reasons for Myanmar's instability is the various groups (Chinese government, Chinese mafia/triads/gangs, rebel militias like SSA/KMT/KIA, Thai government, USA, Taiwan) all have "interests" in the region and use the drug production and trading networks to their advantage. these groups have a vested interest in keeping the "instability" going. I have not read a single "Indian" policy paper or analysis which addresses these issues. even former intelligence chiefs like B.Raman seemingly are baffled and "forget" to address this issue.

the current phase in Myanmar has been activated by US interests *possibly* in cooperation with certain RoP trading networks belonging to the Panthays, and Myanmar govt has been given some lucrative deals to go along with it. i guess Myanmar leadership realizes that they need some leverage against PRC. interesting thing is there is a huge infiltration of these networks by ethnic Chinese. former PLA members have also been known to become influential "warlords" in Myanmar. I find it difficult that PRC couldn't make a counter-offer.

India is a non-existent player in this game. we might thump our chests as much as we want, but ultimately, we don't have anywhere near the "human" presence required to influence events in Myanmar. why are Indian analysts like B.Raman so reluctant to talk about the vast drug-manufacturing/trading networks in this region. even more importantly, BR has made it look like US is some kind of saint and is pushing for "democratic change" in Myanmar. I find it hard to believe that a former Indian external-intelligence chief doesn't know about the **deep** involvement of US in propping up these networks (in cooperation with KMT groups and Thailand).

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r4733.html

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 13 Nov 2011 19:19

http://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2011/ ... cs-or.html

B. Raman on latest Myanmar update:

Slowly and steadily, the Army-propped civilian regime in Myanmar headed by President TheinSein and Aung San SuuKyi, the democracy icon, are coming to terms with each other to avoid a confrontation and to pave the way for a Government, which would enjoy her support from outside, if not association, and thereby enjoy a greater credibility in the eyes of the people.

2. The Government has not imposed any restrictions on her travels outside Yangon. Despite this, she has been avoiding any travels, in an attempt not to create any embarrassing law and order situation for the Government. The change ---whether in her tactics or attitude to the Government--- figured in a question posed to her during her weekly radio interview on November 8,2011.Her reply was interesting.

3.She said: “ I would like to clarify that it is not true that I have made trips around the country whenever I was released from house arrest. In 1995 and in 2000, when I was released for the second time, I never made trips around the country, because of restrictions. Between 2002 and 2003, I did make trips around the country. But this time, since my trip to Pegu, although I have thought about making trips around the country I have been unable to do so because there is a lot of work to be done in Rangoon. Plans have already been made for the NLD to distribute rice to the flood victims as much as possible. I think that it would be better to distribute rice in this manner than to spend money to travel across the country.”

4. Similarly, questions are being asked by sections of the people as to why she is not opposing the construction of the gas pipeline from the Arakan area to Yunnan in China. She had strongly opposed on environmental grounds the construction of a big hydel project by a Chinese company in the Kachin State. Her opposition combined with the opposition from the Kachin leaders and people forced the Government to suspend the project, leading to protests from Beijing.

5. The gas pipeline project too is being opposed by the local people on various grounds such as payment of inadequate compensation for the land acquired for the project , taking the gas away to China instead of utilising it for the benefit of the local people and environmental damage. Despite this, she has not been as active in opposing the gas pipeline project in the Arakan area as she was in opposing the hydel project in the Kachin State.

6.She was asked about it during her weekly radio interview of October 28. In another interesting reply, she said: “Although one cannot say that a nationwide boycott (of the pipeline project) could not happen, I don’t think it would be easy. But it is necessary for the whole country, including the government, to be aware of matters that are really giving trouble to the people. Only then will we be able to find solutions to such issues. However, while we are protecting the interests of the people, we must at the same time be aware of—and take care to maintain—good relations with our neighbouring countries.”

7. The gas pipeline being constructed is more important to the Chinese than the suspended hydel project. It is designed to carry not only gas found locally, but also gas brought from the Gulf by Chinese tankers in order to reduce the Chinese dependence on the Malacca Strait. SuuKyi has been avoiding any opposition to the gas pipeline project lest it add to the difficulties already being faced by the Government in its relations with China after the suspension of the hydel project.

8. In carefully calibrated steps, she and the Government have been trying to pave the way for her election to the Parliament, which seems to be the present priority of both.An amendment to the law on political parties, endorsed by President TheinSein on November 4, removed the condition that all parties must agree to "preserve" the country's 2008 constitution.

9.In a significant interview to the “Yangon Times”, KhinAungMyint, the Speaker of the Parliament, who used to be the Director of Public Relations and PSYWAR in the Ministry of Defence, was quoted as saying: “I recognize the result of the 1990 election, which the NLD won with a vast majority of the votes.The results cannot be reversed and I have no intention to do so.”

10.On November 8, a spokesman of her party the National League For Democracy (NLD) announced after a meeting at her residence in Yangon that more than 100 senior members of the party would meet at Yangon on November 18 to decide whether, in view of the change introduced by the Government, the NLD should re-register itself as a political party. Though he did not say so, its re-registration would make it, including SuuKyi, eligible to stand for election to the Parliament. The speculation is that there is already an unwritten understanding between her and the President that a bye-election would be held before the year-end in which she could be elected.

11. What one has been seeing is a recognition of the victory of her Party in the 1990 elections by the Government. In return, she has agreed not to question the validity of last year’s elections to the present Parliament under the supervision of the Army. The NLD has apparently agreed to end its boycott of the present Parliament and the Government has agreed to pave the way for the election of some NLD leaders, including SuuKyi, to the Parliament.

12. What then: Will SuuKyi and her party work from outside the Government or will they join the Government? An answer to this question is not yet available. She said in her November 8 radio interview: “If the people are active and enthusiastic, the government will also become active and the country will develop. If all of you are active in this manner, the road toward political change will be smooth, and our cooperation will be more effective.”

13. Co-operation and national reconciliation and not political confrontation seems to be her objective. As part of this, she is prepared not to create any more difficulties for the Government in Myanmar’s relations with China. It is clear that she does not want to support the movement of the people of the Arakan region against the Chinese gas pipeline to Yunnan and the construction of a modern port at Kyaukpu to transport gas brought by Chinese tankers from the Gulf to Yunnan. (12-11-11)

yup, her immediate coterie has been infiltrated by PRC. it wasn't that difficult to do. the Chinese presence in many dubious aspects of Myanmarese economy is well documented. it is also possible that the port construction could turn out to be a lucrative junction for drug trafficking. keeping this in mind, it is highly likely that various factions inside the Myanmar govt itself convinced her to go along, so that they can keep peace with the various militias and interest groups.

the gas pipeline is good, but IMVHO, there has to be a parallel transportation route which can carry men and goods on large scale between the two spots. gaining entry into IOR is only valuable if PRC can actually man the IOR and not just build ports. Ironically, this port building might make PRC complacent in the South China Sea and the Malacca. these ports are not a substitute for dominating those areas. these are just PR exercises to intimidate neighbors, but strip away the upper surface and we find that ultimately, without dominating Indo-Pac Sea and Malacca Straits, PRC can't defend these ports.

on a more educational note, is there any detailed study of Panthay Muslims? this group plays a very influential but hidden role in the drug trade in Myanmar. they've been in the business at least for 150 years, or that's what I read somewhere. but any "deeper" info on them is extremely hard to find.

http://drkokogyi.wordpress.com/2011/02/ ... n-mogyoke/

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 13 Nov 2011 19:46

devesh wrote:
on a more educational note, is there any detailed study of Panthay Muslims? this group plays a very influential but hidden role in the drug trade in Myanmar. they've been in the business at least for 150 years, or that's what I read somewhere. but any "deeper" info on them is extremely hard to find.

Burmese Muslims are known to wear a very distinctive skull-cap, delicately embroidered. There are a few remnants of the 19th century returnees in deep south India. These are not connected to the Panthays though, although they could serve as potentially good humint if GoI decides so.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Dec 2011 20:52

Posting in full and without quotes

Published on Dec 01, 2011
By Shyam Saran
The pivot of change in Asia: Indian Express

The efficacy of the latest US “pivot” towards the Asia-Pacific may well be determined by the political dynamics likely to be generated by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s two-day visit to Myanmar (Burma) on December 1 and 2. The visit is the first at this level in over half a century. Its significance should be assessed against the backdrop of recent developments in Myanmar and the region. Myanmar has leapt to the centre of the political and strategic radar screen in the Asia-Pacific over the past year as its new president, Thein Sein, has taken a series of unexpected measures. This has coincided with a push back against China’s more assertive posture in the region, which the US is exploiting.
The leader of the democratic opposition, Aung San Suu Kyi has been released from house arrest and restrictions on her movements and political activities of her National League of Democracy (NLD) have been removed. A regular political dialogue between the government and Suu Kyi has been instituted.

The way has now been cleared for the NLD to register as a political party and for Suu Kyi and other NLD candidates to take part in forthcoming by-elections to the National Assembly. Suu Kyi is likely to be a candidate herself. This will be a major step towards legitimising the new constitution, the National Assembly and the government.

Thein Sein has released over 200 political prisoners and has indicated that those remaining will also be released in stages.

The government has recognised the right to public protest, made labour unions and strikes a legitimate right of workers. Restrictions on access to the Internet have been relaxed and there is greater media freedom. The pace at which these changes have been coming has led even liberal elements to express the fear that there might be a backlash. It appears, however, that Thein Sein has the support of the upcoming and younger military leaders who wish to see a steady political and economic transformation of their country.

On the foreign policy side, the most dramatic development has been the suspension of a major project to construct a series of dams by China on the northern tributaries of the Irrawaddy and in the upper reaches of the main river itself. Preparatory work on the project had already commenced, though there were growing protests in the region, in particular, among the local Kachin tribes.

The Chinese reaction to the suspension was one of shocked surprise. This decision, more than anything else the new government has done, gives notice that the Chinese can no longer have the privileged and virtually unlimited access to Myanmar’s rich natural resources that they have enjoyed over the past 20 years. Myanmar appears determined to diversify its relations away from its inordinate dependence on China. It has been attempting to do so even when it was ruled directly by the generals. The difference lies in the military’s recognition that without political reform at home, more balanced foreign relations would not be possible. {So it seems the only reason why the military junta felt it necessary to institute democratic reforms was to escape the tight Chinese grip}

These measures have already brought a series of diplomatic gains. At its recently concluded summit in Bali, ASEAN announced that it had accepted Myanmar’s request to host the ASEAN Summit in 2014. {Myanmar is looking for wider recognition} This would be the first time since it joined ASEAN in 1997 that Myanmar hosts an ASEAN Summit. It accords the SPDC government the international legitimacy it has craved. Since the ASEAN Summit is also an occasion to hold parallel summits with partner countries, the assemblage of all the world’s key leaders in Naypidaw in 2014 would be an unprecedented event and would mark Myanmar’s return to the international community as a legitimate member.

The three-year run-up to the 2014 summit also provides Thein Sein with the political room he needs to continue and intensify reforms at home.

It was in the mid-1990s that India executed its own “pivot” towards Myanmar, recognising that the policy of isolating the military regime and extending rhetorical support to Suu Kyi only served to create space for China to extend and consolidate its pre-eminence in a strategically significant neighbour. Soon after I took up my assignment as India’s ambassador to Myanmar in 1997, it became obvious from my conversations with the country’s military leaders that they felt acutely uncomfortable with their enforced dependence upon China and wanted to create some wiggle room for the country. ASEAN countries recognised this, and in 1997, admitted Myanmar to their fold, despite considerable opposition from the US and other Western countries. Soon thereafter, our invitation to Myanmar to become part of BIMSTEC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation) sub-regional grouping was accepted with alacrity.

In our bilateral relations, we began to work on the basis of this changed perspective. The first major breakthrough came in 1999, when General Maung Aye, the then Myanmar army chief and vice-president, came to Shillong as the guest of our army chief, General V.P. Malik. But this was not the usual military-to -military visit. Maung Aye came with a delegation of several cabinet ministers heading various economic ministries. We had our own delegation consisting of eight cabinet ministers headed by the late R. Kumaramangalam, who was then the S&T minister. The bilateral talks held on the occasion led to a major upgradation of India-Myanmar relations, including an assurance from Maung Aye that the Myanmar army would act against several of the camps of Indian insurgent groups located across the border. We also agreed to pursue several important cross-border projects. This first somewhat tentative initiative was followed by a full normalisation of bilateral relations in 2000, when Maung Aye paid a visit to India as vice-president.

The policy of engaging Myanmar has paid off. India has gained a degree of cooperation in tackling Northeast insurgencies and established a modest countervailing presence to China in a sensitive neighbouring country. The rest of the world, particularly the US, has come to recognise the wisdom of India’s approach. The impending diversification of Myanmar’s foreign relations strengthens India’s hand because India, on its own, would have been unable to provide a credible alternative to China’s overarching presence in the country. Despite these significant developments, China will still remain Myanmar’s most important neighbour.

As the winds of political change sweep across Myanmar, India should diversify its own political engagement to include Suu Kyi and the NLD, as also the newly elected representatives in the National Assembly. It would also be worthwhile to engage with the representatives of the various ethnic groups who are in the National Assembly for the first time, some of whom reside in areas across our borders with Myanmar. Some of these ethnic groups, like the Kachins (who boycotted the elections), were earlier close to the Chinese but have now become fierce critics, thanks to the continuing ravage of their homeland by predatory, resource-hungry Chinese companies. We should reach out to them. The recent revival of the Advanced Landing Ground in Vijayanagar, Arunachal, near the Pangsau Pass is a step in the right direction. The region across the pass is inhabited by the Kachins.

The writer, a former foreign secretary, also served as India’s ambassador to Myanmar

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Dec 2011 21:17

I believe Hillary Clinton's visit to Myanmar would go a very long way in consolidating India's ties to Myanmar, bringing the two countries closer, very much closer.

The reason for countries in the Indian Subcontinental Region (ISR)

to feel aligned to China are either because

There are rabidly anti-Indian constituencies there (Pakistan, to some extent Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka in that order)
They are hoping for the Chinese veto in UNSC to save their sorry asses (Sri Lanka, Myanmar)
They are attracted to Chinese largess in infrastructure building and trade of raw materials

It may take some time before India can neutralize Chinese veto power in UNSC. We are also moving to decrease anti-Indianism in our neighborhood where possible. As we grow we will be able to bind the other countries much more tightly to ourselves. In the mean time, India in combo with Japan can also hope to do something similar.

But the main change among the countries that can be brought about is if these countries do not have the Democles Sword of Western sanctions and UNSC resolutions hanging over them. That is true of both Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

Whereas in Sri Lanka, we would have to negotiate peace between the Sinhalese and the Lankan Tamils so as to credibly blunt that Democles Sword, in Myanmar we have no constraints.

Myanmar have themselves undertaken important political reforms to do away with the threat of sanctions, ostracism, etc. As Myanmar loses its angst of the world, it would not need China any more. Myanmar is on its way to embrace both its past close civilization relations with India as well as warm relations with the West, especially its relations to the Anglophone world.

Myanmar is making a solid claim to being the bridge between India and ASEAN, thereby making it the pivot of Indo-ASEAN integration. The world is going to move in fast into Myanmar with diplomatic relations, political openness, strategic treaties, infrastructure building, and trade, making China just another player, and not the main player. The more Myanmar is welcomed back into the international community, the stronger would India's influence become in Myanmar viz-a-viz Chinese influence.

Geostrategically speaking, the turn around of Myanmar would be equivalent to Pakistan going Indic. It would open up a part of Asia that was semi-closed to India (overland) - namely Southeast Asia, and help in its integration with India. We should try to look for close alliances with Myanmar, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand.