ABM/Missile Defense Discussion

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Jan 2012 10:28

It wont do any harm if we import few batteries of THAAD if its on offer from US , it would take couple of years for similar Indian system to get ready and IRBM threats from Pakistan is a present danger.

Getting few batteries of PAC-3 wont do any harm specially for important Tier-2 cities with important strategic assets but its not absolutely necessary depends on how quickly they can test and put the AAD into production.

From what i can make out both PAD/AAD is at an early stages of development and it would take couple of years for it to put into production even though initial deployment plans are in place for NCR region.

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 19 Jan 2012 12:40

There is a reason for missile defense being strategic and as indigenous as possible. Independence matters more than capacity when we are having a NFU doctrine and missile defense as our only proactive option

We can source specific components - like long range radars, or get design consultancy for building an AEGIS types destroyer (ships loaded with PAD/AAD/AD1/AD2 etc). Thats all

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Jan 2012 13:44

+1000 to that. letting in the US into our strategic missile and nuclear domain is a clear and present danger.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Jan 2012 14:04

^^ What kind of danger ?

Most of the ABM systems we procured from Israel or even AWACS had the explicit US approval without which we couldnt have got them in the first place , if US wants to get in it can come via Israel route.

koti · Post by **koti** » 19 Jan 2012 14:25

^^ What kind of danger ?

A dangerous one! (DD)

To begin with India will have to a part of US military exercise. This can cause some uneasy friction with our friends.

Our Alignment can cause a tit for a tat response in our neighborhood.
Most of our BMD(AAD/PAD) orders have to be cut if at all made in favor of a more mature system.
We can have unnecessary involvement of foreign opinions regarding our strategic and nuclear policies.
Any SM3 or Thaat deployment under National missile defense does not involve outright sale of the system. It is just a deployment mostly manned by the Khan itself.
Tomorrow, when the clouds clear over our west, they can even bring in Pak under the shelter too.
It is advisable to limit this penetration where whitehouse can monitor and launch missiles from our backyard.

My two cents

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 19 Jan 2012 14:56

There is no harm in filling the gap with THAAD, if that is on offer. Getting american hardware doesn't mean our own ABM program is imperiled.

I am in favor of fast deployment of potent missile shield around 12 imp locations.

Why are we not seriously pursuing S-400?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 19 Jan 2012 15:17

abhijitm wrote:There is no harm in filling the gap with THAAD, if that is on offer. Getting american hardware doesn't mean our own ABM program is imperiled.

I am in favor of fast deployment of potent missile shield around 12 imp locations.

Why are we not seriously pursuing S-400?

Thats all the americans need...once they are in you can forget AAD/PAD or what ever we are developing

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Jan 2012 15:25

Actually if it was not to be American approval neither the Green Pine Sale or Phalcon would have taken place from Israel , America has veto power and considering the deep intel co-operation that US-Israel have , it wont be surprising that US must have used the good office to its benefit.

THAAD is a good option short term say for next 8 years till our system matures and production runs full scale..... Ofcourse US might refuse to sell THAAD to us. AAD/PAD still have some way to go before we have it and we need to see how it progresses

S-400 is not an option because of huge internal demand and they are keen to fill that first before export as per their official , which will happen only after 2016.

koti · Post by **koti** » 19 Jan 2012 15:26

Tell me abhijitm, what do you think will be the ROI for the Americans?
Surely, the profit of a one time purchase of some small number of stop gap missiles wont be.
And US or its allies (we are not!

) do not need any defenses in India as we do not fall over their path.

koti · Post by **koti** » 19 Jan 2012 15:35

Austin wrote:Actually if it was not to be American approval neither the Green Pine Sale or Phalcon would have taken place from Israel , America has veto power and considering the deep intel co-operation that US-Israel have , it wont be surprising that US must have used the good office to its benefit.

And it successfully used it by thwarting our attempts to get the Arrow 2 system or the Elta radars for the Gripen too.
However, it can not veto every major export Israel likes to make either.

There is no question on the performance of the Thaad. But in 8-10 years they will have something better and our AAD will still trying to catch up to the now modified requirements.
When was the first time US offered us THAAD?

vishnu.nv · Post by **vishnu.nv** » 19 Jan 2012 15:56

THAAD is on offer to UAE and Saudi. So there is no reason why it should not be on offer to India.

I am in Favour of bringing the uncle in. They have exceptionally long range radars, the radars which we can buy for the second stage of the ABM development. Buy two three batteries of THAAD and deploy it in critical regions without any protection. This will put immense pressure on the Paki nuke arsenal. Continue R & D with khan developing AAD in a arrow3 model.

There will be a war with china Pakistan combo in near future.We know that and we are buying weapons from around the globe to counter Chinese threat. The Obama's latest defense doctrine calls for making India Americas ally in Asia to counter china along with Japan, South Korea and Australia.

IMHO either we have to fight Panda/pak with khan gang or alone.

koti · Post by **koti** » 19 Jan 2012 16:45

vishnu.nv wrote:IMHO either we have to fight Panda/pak with khan gang or alone.

The danger mate is that we can very well end up fighting for the Khan and group.

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 19 Jan 2012 16:57

Americans approved greenpine and phalcon because it suited their policy - improving ties with India.

THAAD is a good option short term say for next 8 years till our system matures and production runs full scale.

With all due respect - Indian decision makers can only see short term. When something(THAAD) is already working, why invest in something new (AAD)? and a Desi version at that?

IMVHO, THAAD sales will go up. US will make missile shield a globally connected one. Before you know, it will demand rights to the radar info and right to launch interceptors from our soil against its own threats.

vishnu.nv wrote:They have exceptionally long range radars, the radars which we can buy for the second stage of the ABM development. Buy two three batteries of THAAD and deploy it in critical regions without any protection. This will put immense pressure on the Paki nuke arsenal. Continue R & D with khan developing AAD in a arrow3 model.

I am all for their radar and (furthering) R&D for AAD. But I would wait till AAD itself has matured a bit. Right now what they are offering is competition. Their attitude would be that of a seller. They would only stifle the local program.

Whenever there is joint R&D, partners should be equals - capable of completing the task independently -but partnering to share the resources and speed up things. Though the US language is "open to wok with India", I hear it like "we are ready to dump our product to recover the R&D cost !, now show me the money!!"

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 19 Jan 2012 17:45

US says it is open to work with India on missile shield

"We are really open to it. And this is something we ask to and ask them if they are interested in it," Scher said on collaboration on the missile shield project in an interview to PTI, emphasising that US "is and will be a dependable weapons supplier to India."

The top Pentagon official disclosed that Washington and New Delhi had been involved in crucial discussion on the ballistic missile shield, adding that the US was looking forward to "restart" the dialogue.

How people made a conclusion that US is willing to give us technologies or want to do R&D with India?? US is saying they are willing to sell the stuff to India ... so buy F-35, missile shield and whatever; give us rights to use your sea ports/air ports/army locations/infrastructure and of course bag full of money and some other minor tit bits.

I will not touch THAAD/PAC-3/S-400 (Russian) with 10 yard stick.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 19 Jan 2012 18:08

koti wrote:
vishnu.nv wrote:IMHO either we have to fight Panda/pak with khan gang or alone.
The danger mate is that we can very well end up fighting for the Khan and group.

So one ABM deal from uncle and we will be fighting war 'for them', or selling our sovereignty !! If that is the logic then we must already have, given that we have INS Jalashwa, Apaches (would be), Howitzers, C-17s, C-130Js, P-8is, GE F-414s etc etc. Oh and btw, how many high tech american components ISRO import for various purposes is another matter of study.

I am not pro-american, but somewhere we should stop being a hypocrite and do what best we should do for the immediate defense need of the country.

koti · Post by **koti** » 19 Jan 2012 19:35

abhijitm wrote:
koti wrote: The danger mate is that we can very well end up fighting for the Khan and group.
So one ABM deal from uncle and we will be fighting war 'for them', or selling our sovereignty !! If that is the logic then we must already have, given that we have INS Jalashwa, Apaches (would be), Howitzers, C-17s, C-130Js, P-8is, GE F-414s etc etc. Oh and btw, how many high tech american components ISRO import for various purposes is another matter of study.

I am not pro-american, but somewhere we should stop being a hypocrite and do what best we should do for the immediate defense need of the country.

You got the right drift...
See that how we are buying C-17s at a mammoth cost, how GE-414 were suddenly selected upsetting several analysts, and how the Govt had to give an explanation as to why it made an elimination decision for the teens and how IAF had to scramble to JSF at bay.The selection of Howitzers without competitive trails and how the Jalashwa will mostly be limited to a humanitarian ship.

Lets us not ignore the facts and let the definition of hypocrisy mask us.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 19 Jan 2012 20:10

IMHO one should be open to a deal involving joint development and technology transfer, with all critical elements being under Indian control.

But lack of semiconductor fab capability may be a limitation ... to be completely sure of the integrity a system, you have to control it from transistors up.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 19 Jan 2012 20:29

Which big ticket military deals are without controversies and political clouts? Then why American deals have to stand out? Which deal has made everyone happy?

One of the reasons LCA program delay was its attachment with Kaveri program. The day both were detached, it was considered as a wise decision. Then came the competition between EJ2000 and F-414. So, if we can argue that, for the good of LCA (and country) choosing a foreign engine (either EJ/414) over domestic Kaveri was a wise decision, and that does not necessarily mean killing of Kaveri, then we should also consider choosing an ABM system till our own program matures.

Now, which other ABM are on offer? S-400, currently out of question (thanks Austin for clarification). Then comes Arrow-2 and THAAD (probably). And my argument is, if we can consider Arrow-2, then we can also consider THAAD. Both might come with almost same strings attached.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Jan 2012 14:22

U.S., NATO Have Some 1,000 Interceptor Missiles - Rogozin

"Along with its allies, whom the U.S. now persuades to buy ships equipped with the Aegis Combat System, the overall potential can be estimated at about 1,000 interceptor missiles,” Dmitry Rogozin, who is also the Russian president’s special representative for talks with NATO, said in an interview with the Ekho Moskvy radio station.

He said that the figure is currently approaching the limits established by the recently signed Russia-U.S. strategic arms reduction treaty.

"There are no guarantees that after the first, second, and third phases [of the U.S. missile shield project] are completed, there will be no fourth, fifth and sixth. Do you really think they will halt all their technologies after 2020? That’s nonsense! They will go ahead with developing and boosting technical parameters of their interceptor missiles and performance capabilities of their warning [missile defense] systems,” Rogozin said.

He said that U.S. interceptor missiles cover all European Russia to the Urals Mountains, and are capable of hitting not only small and medium-range missiles of “rogue states,” but also intercontinental ballistic missiles of Russia’s armed forces.

"The fact that the missile defense system can hit strategic missiles and the fact that those bases and fleet are deployed in northern seas demonstrate the evident… anti-Russian nature of the [U.S.] missile defense,” Rogozin said.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 20 Jan 2012 14:31

Would such radars be useful to us, given the upcoming fisticuffs with China.

Sea based X Band Radar

It's got insane range and complement a further network of aerostats and ground based radars (longpine).

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Jan 2012 14:47

we dont have a ocean between us and delingha/gansu ... so not needed.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 20 Jan 2012 18:35

Singha wrote:we dont have a ocean between us and delingha/gansu ... so not needed.

wat about slbms fired from subs in Indian ocean, South China sea? and these things can move,but surely damn costly.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jan 2012 07:39

a land based radar or two in andaman, shillong/nagaland and on some mountaintop in southern kerala ghats should be enough.

MN Kumar · Post by **MN Kumar** » 21 Jan 2012 14:46

Yogi_G wrote:Would such radars be useful to us, given the upcoming fisticuffs with China.

Sea based X Band Radar

It's got insane range and complement a further network of aerostats and ground based radars (longpine).

There was a small bit of info that went unnoticed in the A5 launch prep news:
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/preparations-apace-for-agniv-launch/222276-60-117.html

Besides the existing radars at Chandipur, Dhamra, Puri and Mahakalpada, one radar will be placed at Andamans and another X-band radar in a ship which will track the missile till its point of impact. If required, another radar will be positioned at Visakhapatnam, said the source.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Jan 2012 17:38

mm... the strategic sense tending almost cipher for BR-thinkers. long ranged american radar means, no-ops mode or stealth mode no detection that comes along too. And, getting the radar from Israel was not only the mission aspect of the AAD/PAD. The tracking software and cuing the ABM and such feeds needs a big jackal & hiding documents that would be required to sign.

The khans would be the last person to support us develop our own ABM system. They will definitely sell their own, which provides a zero strategic.. and you all have forgotten that khan system (all in all) came only after AAD/PAD went successful.

The khans would install their own and monitor to what they want like they did for the Russians in Eu. How many are willing to play that politics here? This is a no-start game.

BTW, what is the urgency to buying khan systems now? who are all those kalmadites? We DONT require THAAD nor Arrow.

--

.. and we should also think about l-band fusion here., especially for those stealthier ones.

abhijit... please introduce yourself to hakim ji, and get some 101 on certain strategic affairs.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 22 Jan 2012 20:14

Khan wants a foothold in India since it cover the southern Russia and can give early warning for Russian missles.

India does not need these expensive tools and which are legally bound on Indian future weapons development

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 22 Jan 2012 22:29

Acharya wrote:Khan wants a foothold in India since it cover the southern Russia and can give early warning for Russian missles.

US has Diego Garcia and now Afghanistan listening posts to watch Russia. They have been through cold war without India, so I don't think they need India to keep an eye on Russia. Yes, but I agree that US SAM installation will upset Rus but we should be more worried about China. Anything that can fill the gap till our own ABM matures will do.

Saik, thanks for unasked advice, so how much you are being paid in return?

karan_mc · Post by **karan_mc** » 23 Jan 2012 09:20

When was India interested in arrow -2 ??

Will Israel be able to sell the Arrow system to India?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 26 Jan 2012 14:12

A good Western AD that developers can also look at and emulate some of its features is NATO MEADS system , it has a unique plug and fight capability and is modular in nature can be scaled up and scaled down as per needs and can easily integrate with any other assets be it ship based , air based or ground based , it has excellent tactical and strategic mobility

Check the MEADS concept

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Jan 2012 13:30

Boeing Links Up With IAI On Arrow-3

The two companies, which cooperated in developing the operational Arrow-2, on Jan. 23 announced an agreement to jointly work on the Arrow-3. “This new agreement is the next logical step in our relationship with Boeing and a strong opportunity for both companies to play a bigger role in the missile defense market,” says IAI President and CEO Itzhak Nissan.

The Arrow-3 is designed to intercept missiles above the atmosphere and at longer range than the Arrow-2, thus enabling several interception attempts against any incoming missile and increasing the likelihood of success. Specifically, Israel is developing the Arrow-3 to anticipate a nuclear threat from Iran. “Israel is too small to absorb a nuclear strike,” a senior defense source says. “The Arrow-3 will minimize the chance of enemy missiles penetrating our defense shields.”

Like the Arrow-2, the Arrow-3 is a two-stage, solid-propellant interceptor but is equipped with an exoatmospheric kill vehicle that is designed to hit to kill and not use a proximity warhead like the Arrow-2. The overall interceptor is slightly smaller than the Arrow-2 and uses the same launch system. IAI tested the launcher using a model of the Arrow-3 interceptor last September and is preparing for the first flyout test in the second half of 2012.

Arrow-3 will use the next-generation “Green Pine” active, electronically scanned array radar, known as “Great Pine,” which is believed to have a detection range of 900 km (563 mi.). It will also receive data from the U.S. AN/PTY-2 X-band radar deployed in southern Israel, enabling an early detection of incoming missiles and a longer preparation time for interception

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 07 Feb 2012 15:58

Interceptor missile test on February 10

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 07 Feb 2012 18:57

^^Must be the testing in its final configuration..
I hope our guys perform BMD tests simulating an engagement of multiple incoming missiles.. (May be it has already happened, away from prying eyes

)

koti · Post by **koti** » 07 Feb 2012 19:27

I think we should go full on on a Brahmos based ABM too.

It can be used to neutralize launch phase and just launched missiles. The capacity to reach 300KM in 5 min can be pretty effective once our SIGINT/ELINT pickups the delivery boy.

Use of sub kiloton warheads in cases where the launch is already done increases its effectiveness if we can somehow manipulate the Brahmos trajectory to intercept a boost phase missile.(Only for Pak launched)

Though not the safest, this can save a lot of lives after the $hit has already hit the fan.

Jaeger · Post by **Jaeger** » 08 Feb 2012 10:11

Brahmos is too slow for launch phase intercept. The BM will have reached the target by the time Brahmos reaches the launch point. Can be used for pre-emptive strike though.

koti · Post by **koti** » 08 Feb 2012 10:49

Yes.
It takes some time before the missile is launched when it comes out of its hanger. If we are able to detect this by SIGINT/ELINT/COMMINT the time of 5 min should be adequate to neutralize the launcher and the missile that is about to be launched.
If the nuclear exchange has already started at this point, we can use N-armed Brahmos to takeout hard hangers, launch zones using a sub kiloton warhead.

member_20036 · Post by **member_20036** » 10 Feb 2012 10:53

India successfully tests interceptor missile

New Delhi: India has successfully test fired an interceptor missile capable ofdestroying enemy missiles.
The missile was test fired off the Odisha coast today.
More details are awaited.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/india ... herstories

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Feb 2012 11:02

>> I think we should go full on on a Brahmos based ABM too.

assuming a slant range of 300km and a intercept height of say 100km there is no air at such an altitude to run the brahmos ramjet. I doubt there is enough air to make ramjets work at above 100,000ft lets say (30km)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Feb 2012 11:05

http://www.worldnewstribune.com/wp-cont ... ivated.jpg

pic of AN TYP2 shows it looks like a upsized green pine with a huge electronic/power trailer behind it.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 10 Feb 2012 12:26

BHUBANESWAR: India on Friday tested a ballistic missile interceptor from a defence base in Odisha to create a shield against incoming enemy missiles, a senior defence official said.

The indigenous Advanced Air Defence (AAD) interceptor missile was fired from Wheeler Island off the state coast near Dhamra in Bhadrak district, about 170 km from here.

It successfully destroyed an incoming ballistic missile - a modified variant of the Prithvi fired from the Integrated Test Range at Chandipur on sea in Balasore district, about 70 km away from Wheeler Island.

"The interceptor directly hit the target and destroyed it," SP Dash, director of the test range, said. The interceptor was fired a few minutes after the target missile was fired.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 833769.cms

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 10 Feb 2012 12:46

Indian BMD test scores a direct hit at 15 kms altitude

More details as it comes.