India-US Strategic News and Discussion

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 28 Feb 2012 23:50

Altair wrote:Is India giving a cold shoulder to US?

No, SD is showing contempt for Indians and expect them to jump at the command, unmindful of the economic harakiri . India cant afford to loose both Iran and Afghanistan at the same time when Munna is being rewarded with lethal toys.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 29 Feb 2012 09:02

Rony wrote:Kanwal Sibal: India has been criticised by the U.S. but it is in no way a freeloader

<snip>

India has neither enjoyed such latitude and support from the US, nor does it seek to undermine US interests.

US is pressing India to downgrade its ties with Iran, and unmindful of India's energy security, Iran's oil sector is being targetted. US policies are exposing India to the double jeopardy of rupture of relations with Iran and a higher financial burden because of increasing oil prices. India can probably buy additional oil from Saudi Arabia, but at prevailing commercial prices, bringing India no benefit. India is not 'free-loading', it is bearing the costs of US policy.
The promotion of a Shia-Sunni conflict, with Iran and Saudi Arabia as protagonists and US and its partners playing a dangerously ambiguous game with Israeli prodding, imposes unwanted choices on countries like India that have no rational interest in choosing sides.

Demanding India's support for dubious interventionist, regime change policies in which negotiations are excluded unless those targetted capitulate, and on not obtaining it to accuse India of 'slapping the US in its face' is hectoring, not diplomacy.

Why does India's unwillingness to endorse questionable policies without demur mean 'fence-sitting'? Is it advisable that we suspend our judgment on the merits of issues from our perspective to become eligible for rewards for opportunism?

And if the US opens the space further for Islamism in our region, and this includes negotiations with the Taliban and exposing Afghanistan to an increasingly radicalised Pakistan, how will have India 'piggy-backed' on US policies?

India is the only country which has avoided being a direct ally of uncle- -->>> does not behave like a poodle like ukstan or have uncle defence protection. Does not give easy access to uncle men in its countries. No easy way for uncle to go through the govt. recall the deference given to uncle in nato and other allies of the world. Uncle is assured of its top dog position despite whatever 2 bit countries negatively talk about uncle.
Uncle has been trying to undermine India for long through covert and overt means to keep India in its place.
american officials seethe at India's intransigence and lecture it gives uncle.
whatever India's faultlines and weaknesses it can never accused of toeing any countyr's line. (just because some policies of India coinicides to some other country does not mean GOI is a poodle)
Due to its failure it is lashing out through its media.
Of course some mutus behave similarly.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 29 Feb 2012 15:59

Jhujar wrote:
Altair wrote:Is India giving a cold shoulder to US?
No, SD is showing contempt for Indians and expect them to jump at the command, unmindful of the economic harakiri . India cant afford to loose both Iran and Afghanistan at the same time when Munna is being rewarded with lethal toys.

Let me re-phrase the question. To what extent can India repel US pressure regarding Iran?
Options:
We will agree in principle that we will negotiate cutting Iran oil import if US cuts all military-military ties with Pakistan effective immediately.
We will cut down 10% of current oil import from Iran if US declares Pakistan Terrorist State effective immediately.
We will cut down 25% if you level Rawalpindi etc...
This is how I start negotiating terms with Americans. If interested they will come to table or India will increase oil import from Iran 5% every month as they do have surplus from stopped exports to EU.
Lets see who can afford to play the bluff game.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 29 Feb 2012 17:36

Altair:

My going in negotiating position would be that India will cut its ties with Iran if and only if US cuts all military-military ties with Pakistan effective immediately, declares TSP as a terrorist entity and sanctions imposed, and above all de-nuking of TSP is on the anvil. I might also add to that US support for Indian sovereignty in Kashmir, and harried rats' demand for secession is nothing but Islamic fascism masquerading as some kind of bogus liberation struggle.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Mar 2012 00:37

Altair wrote:
Altair wrote:Is India giving a cold shoulder to US?
Jhujar wrote:No, SD is showing contempt for Indians and expect them to jump at the command, unmindful of the economic harakiri . India cant afford to loose both Iran and Afghanistan at the same time when Munna is being rewarded with lethal toys.
Let me re-phrase the question. To what extent can India repel US pressure regarding Iran?
Options:
We will agree in principle that we will negotiate cutting Iran oil import if US cuts all military-military ties with Pakistan effective immediately.
We will cut down 10% of current oil import from Iran if US declares Pakistan Terrorist State effective immediately.
We will cut down 25% if you level Rawalpindi etc...
This is how I start negotiating terms with Americans. If interested they will come to table or India will increase oil import from Iran 5% every month as they do have surplus from stopped exports to EU.
Lets see who can afford to play the bluff game.

It is a no-brainer trade-off. India will ditch Iran if USA delivers on Baluchi Partition from Pakistan!

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 01 Mar 2012 01:27

RajeshA wrote:It is a no-brainer trade-off. India will ditch Iran if USA delivers on Baluchi Partition from Pakistan!

Is it that simple? After all the sunk costs in Iran. Control of an Afghan-CA corridor without Iranian co-operation is possible?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Mar 2012 02:01

Carl wrote:
RajeshA wrote:It is a no-brainer trade-off. India will ditch Iran if USA delivers on Baluchi Partition from Pakistan!
Is it that simple? After all the sunk costs in Iran. Control of an Afghan-CA corridor without Iranian co-operation is possible?

Carl ji,
.
I think USA can consider this option. It will benefit it too. Indian troops with Baloch help can secure Baluchistan.

What we would further need is a North-South Corridor through West Afghanistan (Herat). There the Pushtun population is less, the Aimaks and Tajiks are more. Iran has of course here considerable influence. But we could play the Shia-Sunni card to keep the Tajiks in our corner of the ring! In fact, we get a direct line to supply the Northern Alliance, bypassing Iranian veto over help to the Northern Alliance.

So for the military support to Northern Alliance, they help us secure Western Afghanistan as a open and free route between Baluchistan and Central Asian Republics.

So we can replace Iran with Baluchistan as a corridor into Afghanistan and to preserve our strategic interests there. But more importantly, it gives us access to Central Asian energy - Oil, Gas, Uranium!

And energy is one of the two big reasons why India is reluctant to dump Iran. If USA delivers Baluchistan, we can look after two of our main interests without resorting to help from Iran. So if USA wants us to cut off relations with Iran, US needs to ensure our national interests through alternative means - Baluchistan.

Even so, we don't need to dump Iran completely in exchange for US support in liberating Baluchistan, only for the time US is dealing with the Iranians problem.

But it is a US decision. Right now India would be very unwilling to cut off our ties with Iran.

member_22872 · Post by **member_22872** » 01 Mar 2012 02:09

RajeshA garu,

That is a nice idea, Balochistan is also oil rich, not sure about how much oil can be extracted practically there or if it already being extracted. If oil is promised to us from Balochistan, it will be very viable plan for India to sever ties with Iran at least till Balohistan is free, then we can move again based on realignment of chess pieces.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 Mar 2012 02:10

RajeshA ji/ Carl ji just to contribute to your discussion - latest news:

India ignores US, keeps Iran ties

Even as US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has gone public with a "blunt and intense" message to India to isolate Iran, New Delhi has continued with functional and transactional relationship with Tehran.

In its efforts to shore up peace efforts in Afghanistan, India has for
the first time used the Chabahar port to move 100,000 metric tonnes of wheat to Kabul.

Chabahar, in south Iran bordering Pakistan, is the port closest to and directly linked with Afghanistan. India's usual route to Kabul is the longer Zaranj-Delaram highway.

"We have had very intense and very blunt conversations with each of those countries (India, as well as China and Turkey) and I think that there are a number of steps that we are pointing out to them that we believe they can and should take," Clinton said on Tuesday.

The steps include reduced dependency on Iranian oil and isolation of Tehran for its alleged nuclear programme.

Notwithstanding American assertions, which were answered in equal terms by foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai during his US visit this month, India is taking practical steps to pay for Iranian oil without violating UN sanctions.

A Central Bank of Iran team is in Delhi to find a way out for crude oil payments from India. India buys $12 billion worth of crude from Iran but cannot make payments due to sanction on banks.

Since India, for strategic reasons, cannot afford to put all it eggs in the Saudi crude basket, it is sending an official trade delegation to Iran on March 10-14 to increase imports in non-sanctioned items to balance the oil payments.

In this context, India will increase wheat, rice and medicine exports to Iran so that it can pay for the Iranian oil in kind.

The Centre knows that despite sanctions, European countries are minting money supplying drugs to Iran.

New Delhi needs Tehran's ports, particularly Chahbahar, to reach out to Afghanistan and Central Asia as the US has never put pressure on Pakistan to provide the Wagah-Khyber axis for its goods.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Mar 2012 02:14

venug ji,

There will be many Congressmen and Administration officials in the coming days who will be playing up India's uncooperative behavior. We Indians should write to them, explaining this trade-off, and showing them how beneficial it would be for USA also in the long run.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Mar 2012 02:15

Cuting Balochistan off from Poaq playboard also effect China , a major plus for USA. Once the proposal is seriously considred , Poaq will become 70% Yateem as Massa China is very cold, cruel and calculative in abusing the lowly servants. The Baloch alternative should also be offered to Saudi and Gulf states as part of Shia Sunni equation. More Indian economic weight grows , more the Poaq become irrelevant for all these Chodhries of Poaqland. Ideally, we should be able to feed many small and big players and simultaneously starve the litle Poaqlets.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 01 Mar 2012 02:33

RajeshA ji and others,

I think if that were a route to take, then Iran's wings would first have to be clipped a lot before it can simply be ignored in a Baluch solution. Bahrain would have to move firmly into the Saudi sphere. Iranian states of East and West Azerbaijan would have to secede, and Iran would have to lose its control over the Kurdish movement. Only then can India afford to ignore Iran in its north-south Baluch-Afghan-CA corridor. This looks quite unlikely in the near future. Besides, we cannot ignore tha multiple other potential benefits of the Persian ally for Indian outreach into CA and ME, and India's vision for creating a multipolar order in the longer term.

Moreover, right now the Iranians are engaging very aggressively with China, and so is TSP. Iran's markets are flooded with cheap Chinese products, such that it has become the subject of common jokes in that country over the past few months. there is no doubt that the regime there is ingratiating itself with the Chinese. So there is no doubt that a Baluch-Afghan corridor - even assuming the Afghan Tajiks co-operate - will not succumb to a strategic squeeze from either side.

So I think we cannot see the Baluchi issue in isolation from India's wider multipolar vision. We need to create strategic space for the Baluchi cause by working closely with Russia (which will control the northern end of that corridor) as well as Iran. Russia and Iran already work together on Armenia vis a vis Azerbaijan, so that same common work can be replicated in Afghanistan, at the cost of China-TSP-US. In the meantime, if the US-Turkey-GCC manage to crush Iran's ambitions on its Western flank, it will be good for us, and Iran will turn East and North-East.

Therefore, India should not see the Baluch issue as if only the US can facilitate it. Rather, we have to get Iran and Russia also involved, while we reassure the US in other ways. But if we antagonize Russia + China + Iran, then we will find ourselves isolated, at the mercy of US pleasure, and multipolar world order vision in the trash can. JMT.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2012 02:45

CRamS wrote:Altair:

My going in negotiating position would be that India will cut its ties with Iran if and only if US cuts all military-military ties with Pakistan effective immediately, declares TSP as a terrorist entity and sanctions imposed, and above all de-nuking of TSP is on the anvil. I might also add to that US support for Indian sovereignty in Kashmir, and harried rats' demand for secession is nothing but Islamic fascism masquerading as some kind of bogus liberation struggle.

CRS, TSP nukes are like parade ground weapons. They really dont have any utility. Its not in US interests for anyone in the world to use nukes. For that will challenge the very basis of the centuries of global stability theory that has been the bulwark of Western dominance.

So its only India that is self scared about TSP nukes. They really are non usable.

As for other things like cutting ties and declaring them as terrorists India has to that first!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Mar 2012 02:53

Azerbizan just signed 1.4 Billion $ weapon deal with Israel. Kurds will be free to needle Iran after the Syrian mess is cleaned. Q is will it really happen or oppertunity wasted?

member_22872 · Post by **member_22872** » 01 Mar 2012 02:56

Carl ji, that means we need to have the cake and eat it too. This also means as your said, Balochistan needs to be freed not at the cost of Iran, because if your analysis is right, too many pieces have to be moved for us to move in that direction. And more over why should we be even worry about US blessings? it ain't going to be easy with/without US for sure, if it unilaterally wants to break away Balochistan, we must support US, and Iranians need to be taken into confidence that Iranian side of Balochistan wont be disturbed. China might not favour any moves to break it away from TSP, Russia and Iran might join hands.

Since one of the objectives of PRC to prop up TSP is to tie down India, it will lose the advantage if it supports India/Iran/Russian involvement. Sure it might benefit financially if Balochistan can trade with it freely, but that is an assumption. Not sure PRC would play ball with us on Balochistan.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Mar 2012 03:06

Altair ji, Carl ji, Jhujar ji, shyamd ji, venug ji,

I've taken the discussion on Baluchistan to the 'Managing Pakistan's failure' Thread.

Please continue there.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 Mar 2012 04:45

RajeshA wrote:It is a no-brainer trade-off. India will ditch Iran if USA delivers on Baluchi Partition from Pakistan!

US is incapable of having a fair, negotiated exchange like that with India. They will push for a client or vassal relationship where we get the "relationship" to buy overpriced amriki stuff; and if rebuffed by India, the US will sulk off and plot to teach India a lesson for what it sees as insolence. So, forget the fantasy of buying US cooperation to cut TSP to size.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2012 04:53

KLNM, India should use the 3 Muskeeters approach.

Defang TSP after finding a smoking gun that implicates the 3.5 fiends!

I think it in Chagai.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Mar 2012 04:54

KLNMurthy ji,

as long as we don't explain it to the Americans in some Non-Alignment type of ideological way but as a case of business, they will understand.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 Mar 2012 05:02

RajeshA wrote:KLNMurthy ji,

as long as we don't explain it to the Americans in some Non-Alignment type of ideological way but as a case of business, they will understand.

I am not so sure. US is like a corrupt consultant who is not interested in solving the client's problem and pocketing a fair fee, only in upselling of service packages and contracts, using hard-sell tactics.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 Mar 2012 05:17

KLNMurthy ji,

when India has enough money, enough to influence the pockets of American Military-Industrial Complex, MIC would decide that US forces should act as mercenaries for Indian causes. It is just a matter of money, enough money!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Mar 2012 05:34

the last person the Baluchis should rely upon for true support is Uncle Sam.Look how he has betrayed his closest buddies all down the pages of history.The sudden love for the Baluchis is merely a gambit to further twist the Pakis into obeying orders from Washington.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 Mar 2012 05:40

^^ They are the main supporters - US and the Brits via Oman.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Mar 2012 08:16

Where the insanity of the US is leading us too... (X-posted in the Iran thread)

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/ar ... epage=true

When insanity rules the world
Prem Shankar Jha

India should resist the West's brazen efforts to use championship of democracy as a cover for regime change.

Xcpt,read in full:

In June 1914, Serbian ultra-nationalists calling themselves the Black Hand managed to kill Archduke Ferdinand, the heir apparent to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian empire, in Sarajevo and ignited the First World War. None of the Great Powers wanted that war. None expected it to last more than four weeks. It lasted four years and took 19.5 million lives. Today, three apparently coordinated attacks on Israeli diplomats in Georgia, India and Thailand, for which Tel Aviv is strenuously blaming Iran, could become the spark for a similar conflagration in the Middle East.

The comparison is not as fanciful as it sounds, for the configuration of forces in the international state system is beginning to resemble what existed in the decade before the First World War. The most striking similarities are the decline in the economic power of the hegemonic nation — Britain then, the United States today; challenges from new aspirants to hegemony, Germany then (with the U.S. lurking in the wings), China and Salafi Islam today; attempts to shore up hegemony through alliances with like-minded nations — Britain, France and Russia then — the U.S., the European Union and Israel today; the emergence of a bunker mentality that hardens stances and progressively closes the avenues for peace through accommodation; and a growing temptation to use military power to pre-empt potential challenges even before they arise.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 Mar 2012 22:09

India stopped buying US made cheese due to enzyme from Cow's blood. US responds with stopping imports of Basmati rice.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2012 23:40

They also have their own Texmati brands growing.

Recall the recent distress of US rice growers at Iraq buying Indian rice instead of US rice.

Its related to that. Not the cheese/rennet issue.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Mar 2012 23:47

ramana wrote:They also have their own Texmati brands growing.

Recall the recent distress of US rice growers at Iraq buying Indian rice instead of US rice.

Its related to that. Not the cheese/rennet issue.

Iraq no longer wants to pay the high price of Rice , both the Palo Altan and Texas one .

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 02 Mar 2012 04:32

shyamd wrote:India stopped buying US made cheese due to enzyme from Cow's blood. US responds with stopping imports of Basmati rice.

I am still seeing plenty of Basmati stocks in neighbourhood stores as also local costco. Are you sure basmati rice imports from India have been stopped by US?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Mar 2012 05:09

Could be new development for FY 13?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Mar 2012 05:10

Latest development so you may not see the effect of it until maybe a week or so. Apparently they have been held on some flimsy ground.
Nothing in press about it yet. Wait and see

Roperia · Post by **Roperia** » 02 Mar 2012 11:50

Worth exploring NATO partnership with India, Brazil: Pentagon

A top Pentagon Commander has told US lawmakers that the possibilities of NATO partnership with India and Brazil are ''worth exploring'', as the two nations have great capabilities.

"Just to really push a little further out there, two nations that I think are worth exploring possibilities with are India and Brazil. They both have great capability. They could operate with us, for example, in the piracy mission should they choose to do so," said Admiral James Stavridis, Commander of US European Command (EUCOM), and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

This is for the first time possibly that a top Pentagon commander is making such a statement on partnership between NATO and India. The Pentagon official was quick to inform lawmakers that this idea of his could be a little bit far-fetched.

Stavridis, who was responding to a question from Congressman Loretta Sanchez at a Congressional hearing yesterday, said that exploring the possibilities of NATO building partnership with India was last on his list of four priorities of NATO's expansion and partnership with other countries.

Roperia · Post by **Roperia** » 02 Mar 2012 11:56

US special forces teams in 5 South Asian nations including India

Quick summary -

India and the US are co-operating to enhance maritime security and fight piracy.

Co-operation among "govt. agencies" of both countries on the mutual threat perceived from LeT.

US is helping India beef up internal security.

Lauds BD's co-operation with India on security issues.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 02 Mar 2012 12:01

Worth exploring NATO partnership with India, Brazil: Pentagon

After watching how NATO tricked Libya into befriending it and then invaded & looted the country of its foreign & domestic resources/investments ...not to mention murdered its leader............... trusting NATO is out of the question.

Its an expansionist block engaged in resource and financial piracy around the world.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 02 Mar 2012 13:03

I need talking points for "Discussion on US - India Strategic Partnership and the World it Made"
by Prof Jeffrey Legro (Fellow, Olin Institute, Harvard) & Prof Bharat Karnad at ASCI, Hyderabad.
Priority: Urgent
Possible attendees: General Kotikalapudi Venkata Krishna Rao

Roperia · Post by **Roperia** » 02 Mar 2012 14:42

My topics of interest (in descending order) - Economy (India is US's 12th largest trading partner while they are our 2nd largest trading partner), higher education, high tech transfer (mil + civil), energy cooperation (nuclear + alternate ), infrastructure (investment), Intelligence sharing (internal security), maritime security etc.

Check out the events and multi media section on this page Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS

You may find the commentary at Brooking's interesting as well India

I hope that helps.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Mar 2012 14:59

Altair wrote:I need talking points for "Discussion on US - India Strategic Partnership and the World it Made"
by Prof Jeffrey Legro (Fellow, Olin Institute, Harvard) & Prof Bharat Karnad at ASCI, Hyderabad.
Priority: Urgent
Possible attendees: General Kotikalapudi Venkata Krishna Rao

Increasing protectionism in US, continuing relationship with Pakistan and support for China despite blatant human right violations.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 02 Mar 2012 15:31

Thanks guys but I dont want to start complaining right from go. We will get there eventually, I am sure, but atleast let us start pretending with a handshake rather than spitting at each other!

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 02 Mar 2012 15:34

Altair wrote:Thanks guys but I dont want to start complaining right from go. We will get there eventually, I am sure, but atleast let us start pretending with a handshake rather than spitting at each other!

piracy, post war afghanistan, increasing military exchanges, security architecture in east asia, cooperation in burma, security council votes.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Mar 2012 16:15

Altair wrote:Thanks guys but I dont want to start complaining right from go. We will get there eventually, I am sure, but atleast let us start pretending with a handshake rather than spitting at each other!

Well you can begin by asking if he thinks of new unexplored areas not already contaminated by past mistrust that can be worked on in a mutual give and take manner (and not merely "lets get the best out of this for me" shortsightedness)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Mar 2012 21:47

Arun Roperia wrote:Worth exploring NATO partnership with India, Brazil: Pentagon

A top Pentagon Commander has told US lawmakers that the possibilities of NATO partnership with India and Brazil are ''worth exploring'', as the two nations have great capabilities.

"Just to really push a little further out there, two nations that I think are worth exploring possibilities with are India and Brazil. They both have great capability. They could operate with us, for example, in the piracy mission should they choose to do so," said Admiral James Stavridis, Commander of US European Command (EUCOM), and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

This is for the first time possibly that a top Pentagon commander is making such a statement on partnership between NATO and India. The Pentagon official was quick to inform lawmakers that this idea of his could be a little bit far-fetched.

Stavridis, who was responding to a question from Congressman Loretta Sanchez at a Congressional hearing yesterday, said that exploring the possibilities of NATO building partnership with India was last on his list of four priorities of NATO's expansion and partnership with other countries.

Why not call it a Galactic Coalition of Willing (GCOW) force!