cross post of a topic that is OT in the deterrence thread
one single "political power" which is declared as Islamic, and uses Islam as a tool to attain and hold power, establishing itself as the most powerful force in ME. all other smaller powers in ME will follow in that power's lead on promises of looted wealth from kafirs. this is consolidation of ME under Islam.
that is how I imagine it will be. doesn't mean it is the only variety of "Islamic consolidation of ME" that's possible.
Ignoring minor Islamic divisions it appears to me that the main division in west Asia is an Arab sunni versus Persian shia. But both are united in their opposition to Israel. Arab sunnis have tied up with the west, and Iran too was right in there until Khomeini. Iran remains bad boy because of its opposition to the US.
It is the US that is playing a dangerous game here - but the danger is to Israel, not to the US.
As is openly declared and documented, the US seeks to play "balancer". Israel's destruction would kill off the US's game so that cannot happen. But an undue strengthening of either the sunni ME or the shia forces would also upset the stability of the ring. So while the US protects the stakeholders in this game it does not seek to see any of them totally destroyed, although it would like to see all of them beholden to the US. In turn the US would like to see each of these entities supportive of US power. In the ideal "world order" US power and influence is supported by other nations, while the US supports other nations in their disputes with each other. That is how the US supplies weapons to KSA, Israel and Egypt while hosting peace talks. The US opposes only those who are out and out anti-US and do not accept US "aid". Saddam, Gadhafi and Iran were in that genre.
A country that accepts US aid and depends on US power for its survival and can be depended upon to promote US power and interests is all that the US is interested in to maintain "world order". Every country is helped to either fight or hold talks with its adversaries, but permanent peace is dangerous to the US.
Muslim nations have a history of bestial violence which we keep talking about on here, but they are also phenomenally stupid in the way that they are unable to unite to topple forces like the USA. On the other hand I have heard people say on BRF that Islam is extremely dangerous and should be considered as something that will automatically and inevitably endanger India if "allowed to unite".
Either islamic nations are too stupid to see this or they are being prevented from uniting by something. It seems to me that "something" is the USA which has taken over the job of keeping the ummah fractured from imperial Britain which originally fractured the ummah.
Many Islamists have realised that and these include Osama, Zawahiri and even Lashkar e Toiba. The current "world order" requires the USA to keep Islamism fractured. The USA keeps islamism fractured by keeping Islamic disputes going. Oddly enough the only Islamic dispute that is "settled" and does not seem to raise its head is the Islam versus Christianism dispute. But the USA is complicit in keeping the Muslim-Jew and the Muslim-Hindu disputes going by helping both sides but never allowing any side to dominate.
If India were to support this state of affairs and help keep the current world order intact India must support the USA and never settle any dispute with Pakistan. I believe we have to accept the Kashmir dispute as a permanent affair because it is the Kashmir dispute that gives the US a handle on Pakistan, and from Pakistan a grip on the sunni world.
In my view this permanent need for India to suck up to the US and keep US interests protected so the US keeps islamism fractured using India and Israel as "balancing tools" is unacceptable in the long term. It will never allow India the strategic space to do what is in Indian interests
The other issue here is what if the US loses its power? The best statement I have seen in this regard is "the US is not about to lose its power anytime soon
" That is a "high hopes" statement. There are many countries who can read the US game. A few realignments can significantly degrade US primacy and the US actively suppresses such realignments. However, as I see it when enough groups in the world read the US game, the realignments will occur anyway and the US-led "world order" will fall.
It is necessary for India to be ready to fill any gaps and try and ensure that the US's fall does not mean war for India. The US of course will be happy to see war anywhere outside of the US if push comes to shove.