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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 01:03 
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One of the Kargil excuses of TSPA i.e. as a kind of reverse-Siachen, is Siachen while glossing over its own record of grabs.

I mention Haji Pir (1948) so as to "TSPA moving in" is not stated as a matter of conjecture but as a fact.


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 01:04 
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Some Asian glaciers 'putting on mass'
By Richard Black

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17701677

Quote:
Some glaciers on Asia's Karakoram mountains are defying the global trend and getting thicker, say researchers.

A French team used satellite data to show that glaciers in part of the Karakoram range, to the west of the Himalayan region, are putting on mass.


The reason is unclear, as glaciers in other parts of the Himalayas are losing mass - which also is the global trend.

The region's glaciers are poorly studied, yet provide a vital water source for more than a billion people.

The response of Himalayan glaciers to global warming has been a hot topic ever since the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which contained the erroneous claim that ice from most of the region could disappear by 2035.


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 01:35 
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Just curious, are we absolutely sure that more than 100 pakis died in the avalanche. What if just 35 pakis died or a smaller number and the pakis are exaggerating the numbers to discuss withdrawal of Siachen again. Zardari's visit to India was too much of a coincidence.
Better still engineer an avalanche to kill off a few NLI beardies and voila !! They have managed to publicize the Siachen issue in the international fora.

It is not beyond the pakis to think of such a brilliant 'tactical master stokes' you know.

-M


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 01:54 
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there is something fishy about this incident and sudden clamouring to resolve the issue
perhaps they are just exploiting their dead... (as usual)


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 01:59 
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http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20120416/j&k.htm#5

Srinagar-Leh highway to reopen on April 25
M Aamir Khan
Tribune News Service

Srinagar, April 15
The 434-km-long Srinagar-Kargil-Leh national highway, which remains closed during the winter months, would be thrown open to vehicular traffic from April 25. Minister for Transport and CA&PD Qamar Ali Akhoon has stated that the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh national highway would be ready for vehicular traffic from April 25, an official said here.

Akhoon made the statement during his visit to Captain Moad in the Ladakh region yesterday where he reviewed the measures taken by the Beacon authorities in connection with the lifting of snow and other hurdles on the highway.

On the occasion, the Minister urged the Beacon authorities to accelerate the restoration work on the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh national highway to ensure that the vital road would be thrown open for the vehicles at the earliest. The lone link between Leh and rest of the country was closed in December last year due to heavy snowfall at Zojila and adjacent areas.

Engineer of Beacon AP Singh informed the Minister that six bulldozers and about 30 labourers had been pressed into service for removing snow and other hurdles on the road.

Meanwhile, Akhoon said the Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways had already approved the construction of 13-km-long Zojila Tunnel to provide an all-season link to the twin districts of Leh and Kargil while adding that the work on the project would be started this year only. He also said the foundation stone of the first phase 6 km tunnel from Gagangeer to Sonamarg in Ganderbal district would be laid in August as per the schedule announced earlier.


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 02:25 
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I think it's time for Westerners to ask the Pukis to be magnanimous and vacate and return POK to India to show their sincerity towards peace with India. :roll:

After all India showed magnanimity toward the Pukis in 1971 by returning 90,000 + Puki POWs to back them after, first, disarming them (so they don't injure or kill themselves with their own weapons) and then tenderly caring for them for so many months in our luxurious POW camps. :lol:

Image


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 05:37 
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This is the best on Siachen.
The same question is raised if the Indian troops withdraw from the forward post on Siachen.


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 06:15 
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Quote:
Srinagar-Leh highway to reopen on April 25
M Aamir Khan
Tribune News Service

.................

six bulldozers


Better of using snow throwers or even a small jet engine mounted on a truck that scoops the snow and feed the heat exchanger. Some heat could be used to deice the pavement too. (yes, residual water will turn into ice and has to be dealt with.)


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 16:32 
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Good article on PVC Hon Capt Bana Singh
http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 120417.htm


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 16:40 
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Lalmohan wrote:
there is something fishy about this incident and sudden clamouring to resolve the issue
perhaps they are just exploiting their dead... (as usual)

PAkis are saying that it must be vacated by both....are they inviting the Chinese?


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 16:44 
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atreya wrote:
Good article on PVC Hon Capt Bana Singh
http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 120417.htm


The article mentions India has suffered an estimated 4000 casualties at Siachen, i.e around ~175 men a year, is this true or is psy-ops put in, or is the term casualties include minor injuries to increase shock value?


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 18:18 
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indian casualties in the beginning had been quite high, but 4000 seems too high. for the past few years deaths due to environmental factors have been close to zero thanks to better facilities and equipment


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 18:22 
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According to this

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110606/edit.htm#6

Quote:
India, since 1984, has lost 720 soldiers, with 60 per cent falling to General Glacier.


4000 clearly is an exageration.


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 18:37 
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Thought so, just see how the psy-ops is done. Pakis and some Western/Indian Analysts have always been spouting propaganda that our casualties are 5x and our cost is so unaffordable at Siachen that we must hand over the Glacier to the Pakis forgetting the blood split and the technological advantages we have gained from operating in such tough conditions apart from a daily reminder to Paki soldiers that their TFTA SSG is not so great after all.


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 18:45 
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SRoy wrote:
^^

What a pathetic excuse of a nation we are becoming. It has come dowm to tiny bits like Haji Pir pass while no ones talks of PoK anymore.

We don't have the balls to ask them to withdraw from PoK but we are ready to provide them the leverage to decide our own force deployments inside ouu own territories.
True. It takes political will to prepare. A state that is built on deracinated principles does not know, why retaining its sovereign territory is its most important solemn role. It takes will to build capability over many decades. It takes hard power a willingness to shed blood and sweat, allocate necessary resources. The state has done none of that over the decades. A compromise is the most logical outcome of a weak state of affairs. A state infested by termites. An iron fence shall provide only so much protection and no more.


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 19:53 
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X Posted from the Pakistan Arms Sales, Ops, Doctrine etc. thread.

Hmmm ……….. Was the Army of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan storing Chemical Warfare weapons at Siachin?:

Pakistan avalanche search hampered by toxic gases


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 20:00 
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Just so that there is no doubt that this was a AFP article, the final sentence is the standard AFP template:
Quote:
Kashmir has been the cause of two wars between India and Pakistan and the nuclear-armed rivals fought over Siachen in 1987

For some reason, the number of wars is now 2 instead of the earlier 4 and a mention of armed insurgency in Indian held Kashmir is missed out!! :rotfl:


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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 20:14 
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From the link posted Transport Aircraft Thread:
[url](http://airmarshalashokgoel.blogspot.in/ ... il-76.html[/url])

Pasting in full:

Quote:
The Facts : About Thoise operation by IL-76

I was then in command of NO44 Sqn. Operation Brass Tacks was at peak and blooming. All Sqdns of the IAF had been moved to their Op locations. So was 44 Sqn moved to Nagpur by mid Jan 1987.

I was called to Air Hq during 3rd week of Jan 1987. Then ACAS (Ops) briefed me that Cat ‘A’ vehicles of the Army (BMP’s) are to be moved to Shyok Valley. Thoise Runway was just 1700 meters at that time: I discussed the matter with the ACAS (ops) and the Dops (T & M). And desired that I would like to make a heptr recee to Thoise.

The recee was done on 27/28 Jan 1987. A Broad white line was marked on the landing R/W to indicate the touchdown point. All touchdowns were to be ensured ± 1 meter of the white line. Any overshoot of white line would have resulted over shoot and the touchdown before the white line would have resulted a touchdown on Kaccha. WAT calculations were done and an empty aircraft (IL-76) landing was carried out on 29 Jan 1987. After that 2 IL-76 were positioned at Chandigarh and I commanded 18-20 sorties in about 4 days time.

Brief details

Date 29-30, 31 Jan & 1 Feb 1987 RW length at TE-1700 meter. Load carried –one BMP in each sortie was carried weighing 13.5 Tonnes.Off loading time at TE-7 minuts.

Spl Note- Every time I landed at Thoise Lt Gen Handoo, then Army Cdr NC, used to bring a cup of tea and a samosa for me and hug me and state “Ashok you have done yeoman service to the Indian Army. At that time IL-76 were operating even at sea level to airfields of 2400 meter length.

Later on IL-76 started regular operations to Thoise when R/W was extended to 2700 meters. I was AOC CG during 1992-1993. Now R/W length at Thoise is 3500 meters. That is the story of Thoise. One of the most satisfying operations, at that time. Senior Tpt Pilots had warned me “don’t be fool hardy. You would kill yourself”. The firsthand account of Thoise operations.


Well, IMO, these BMP were meant to be used in only one direction - along the Shyok and towards Skardu.

As I said somewhere else earlier - the main objective of Operation Brass Tacks was not in the plains; all the movement in the plains was a ruse for the hammer which would have fallen on Northern Areas. It was to be a two division assault with one division in reserve. The assault axis were Nubra-Skardu and Indus river-Skardu; there was to be a diversionary attack through Guraiz to Astore threatening Gilgit (over the Burzil Pass leading to Astore).


Last edited by rohitvats on 17 Apr 2012 20:23, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 17 Apr 2012 20:18 
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Acharya wrote:


This is too good. I had to post this.
While the nation mourns the tragedy, it would be prudent to investigate the cause of this unusual phenomenon. There are military technologies available which can cause artificial avalanches. Pakistan must investigate if Indians or Americans are involved. All possibilities must be probed whether it is an act of God or an act of war!


What happens if it turns out to be an act of God? Will Allah himself be the target of the Pakistani Mujahideen? Oh, them wacky pakis.....


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 12:53 
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From here: http://www.timesnow.tv/Kayani-Pak-and-India-need-to-solve-Siachen-issues/articleshow/4400369.cms

Key excerpts:

Quote:
Kayani: Pak and India need to solve Siachen issues

Noting that withdrawal of troops from Siachen is necessary to improve 'atmosphere', Pakistani Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said the issue needs to be resolved by Pakistan and India.

Kayani made the remarks while interacting with reporters in the northern town of Skardu after reviewing the search operation for 138 people buried by an avalanche in Gyari sector of Siachen.

He travelled to Gyari with President Asif Ali Zardari. The Army Chief said the issue of Siachen needs to be resolved by Pakistan and India.

Kayani contended that Pakistan had stationed its troops in Siachen in response to a move by India. "The world knows why we are in Siachen," he said. The withdrawal of troops from the glacier is necessary to improve the atmosphere, Kayani was quoted as saying by Geo News channel.


One senior ex-maulana from BRF madrassa had warned me that after loss of Ghyari, the Saltoro war is over. I did not take that statement seriously. Of course, from operational perspective, without Ghyari and sister location of Goma, PA cannot support and sustain troops and movements in Central and southern glacier. It is like loosing base camp for Siachen for us. It is THE node which supports all the logistics in the area.

PA chief making the above statement could only mean two things:

(a) to keep India and IA off-balance and ensure that we do not take advantage of the situation.
(b) The damage has been so severe so as to render the re-establishment of base at Ghyari/near vicinity as impossible. No base-no logistics-no troop deployment and sustainability.

With Kayani making the noises - it seems there is PA support for the entire "Siachen Peace Park" initiative. But the question is this - in what form have they asked for their pound of flesh? No authentication of AGPL? It seems, as far as Track-2 diplomacy is concerned, Siachen is an idea whose time has come.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 17:15 
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You mean this?

Is pakistan army brave enough to make peace


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 17:31 
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From Manish Jain article if GYari has been wiped out, then the 2400 remaining Paki soldiers on Soltoro ridge don't have supplies for last 12 days and could perish. I hope true Paki casualties wipe out the entire 2500 and Kiyani gets the flak.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 17:37 
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so peace overtures are a means of deflecting attention to 'bad india' in case IA decides to dislodge the unsupplied soldiers on the saltoro?
nice


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 17:38 
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rohitvats wrote:
From here: http://www.timesnow.tv/Kayani-Pak-and-India-need-to-solve-Siachen-issues/articleshow/4400369.cms
Key excerpts:
Quote:
Kayani: Pak and India need to solve Siachen issues

One senior ex-maulana from BRF madrassa had warned me that after loss of Ghyari, the Saltoro war is over. I did not take that statement seriously. Of course, from operational perspective, without Ghyari and sister location of Goma, PA cannot support and sustain troops and movements in Central and southern glacier. It is like loosing base camp for Siachen for us. It is THE node which supports all the logistics in the area.

PA chief making the above statement could only mean two things:

(a) to keep India and IA off-balance and ensure that we do not take advantage of the situation.
(b) The damage has been so severe so as to render the re-establishment of base at Ghyari/near vicinity as impossible. No base-no logistics-no troop deployment and sustainability.

With Kayani making the noises - it seems there is PA support for the entire "Siachen Peace Park" initiative. But the question is this - in what form have they asked for their pound of flesh? No authentication of AGPL? It seems, as far as Track-2 diplomacy is concerned, Siachen is an idea whose time has come.


Looks interesting. They know that now they cant sustain as earlier and could be using this incident as a face saving measure. The murmurs about the costs of maintaining troops in the media also should be considered.

Now to avoid backlash they want us out from there too. Lets see how the GoI responds.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 17:49 
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I can predict how the current GoI will respond - say that this is a good idea and let's do it. Sundry articles in paid media toeing the GoI line. Build up pressure on IA to also toe the GoI line and try to withdraw from Siachen.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 18:16 
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Lets see, while I don't have much trust in MMS, AKA, Pranab Da, Babus and Army establishment should be able to prevent a change of status quo with only chai biscuit discussions


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 19:32 
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This is dated, but worth a read.
The siachen War: twenty-Five Years On - Pavan Nair
Quote:
Operation Meghdoot was a strategic blunder and the turning point in India’s relations with Pakistan....

It is high time that civil society on both sides debates the issue and brings pressure on their respective governments to do their duty by negotiating an honourable withdrawal from an area which should not have been occupied in the first place. Considering the fact that a clock of de- struction has been ticking for 25 years, there is a need of some urgency to be in- jected into the process. India and Pakistan can ill-afford the additional expenditure of maintaining thousands of troops at ex- treme altitudes. A million dollars a day could go some distance in the fight against poverty and hunger.

In the meantime, there is an alternative. General Inder Gill had recommended a unilateral withdrawal back in 1997. India could pull out from the posts on Saltoro while suggesting to Pakistan to do the same. In other words, disengage troops on both sides to lower altitudes without any preconditions. This is an unlikely scenario due to the prevailing situation. Here is a quote from a letter written by a retired air force officer, group captain A G Bewoor to the Indian Express on 8 May 2003. “Siachen is not worth another dead soldier, it never was. Siachen and only Siachen has the ability to get sorted out without any impediment and without being linked to the other part of J&K.” It is a matter of deep regret that at least another 100 Indian soldiers have been killed and some 500-odd wounded since this was written.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 19:35 
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well, if we really can get the PA to co-authenticate the AGPL and get some sort of mechanism in place to watch PA movement west of Saltoro, then something can be done. But in that case, we'll spend more time in keeping a lookout and trying to second guess the pakees.....they are a trecherous and duplicitous race...i wont trust them with dog-sh*t!!!!!


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 19:45 
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The Pavan Nair article one thing correct-Siachen should never have happened.....from what I know, the objective of Op.Meghdoot was to take Dansam and Khappalu and deny PA access to glacier.
Rest is all typical warm and fuzzy.....but can all the peacenicks answer one simple question-what about the cost which will need to be paid to push PA off Saltoro if they do another Kargil on us? And you think PA will be happy just to sit on Saltoro? It was our requirement to deny them entry to Siachen and hence, we took the passes on Saltoro.....PA will not stop at Saltoro; they will ensure that we cannot reach any where Saltoro...as per their claim line, they'll want to stop us well before where Siachen meets Teram Shehr Glacier.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 20:01 
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rohitvats wrote:
well, if we really can get the PA to co-authenticate the AGPL
Only way, it shall be done.

Quote:
and get some sort of mechanism in place to watch PA movement west of Saltoro, then something can be done.
The Gurmeet Kanwal presentation you linked has the details for joint monitoring.

Quote:
But in that case, we'll spend more time in keeping a lookout and trying to second guess the pakees
True, but probably worth it given the fact the Siachen is a dead end for us too
Quote:
they are a trecherous and duplicitous race...i wont trust them with dog-sh*t!!!!!
You make me smile. Look at it this way, they are bound to serve their mother land - any way they can. We should factor that in and learn to manage this risk.

My feeling is ANY treaty/agreement with TSP has to have the full backing of their military, otherwise it is not worth it. Once we do have such an agreement, we should keep our eyes and ears open and constantly let them know, that we will hold them accountable. If breached, ALL options should be on the table. Unofficially, we should communicate what our policy options shall be, if agreements are breached. These options from the Indian side should have bi partisan support and TSPA should know these. They should be made to realize the full costs of a serious breach.

It take two to tango. So nothing happens unilaterally. It hurts TSPA more than the IA to maintain the force structure on Siachen, there is scope for more ask and take on the issue from the Indian side in other areas.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 20:23 
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Lalmohan wrote:
there is something fishy about this incident and sudden clamouring to resolve the issue
perhaps they are just exploiting their dead... (as usual)



LM, Wonder if massa triggered the avalanche as pre-emptive move with a high flying drone? TSP being guilty wouldn't dare accuse them lest they are found to bbe violating even more treaties. The avalanche is a surprise for them.


Looks like the place was a stockpile depot. Another odd thing is SPD was rushed from TSP to recover stuff. Could be some low yield Hatf/Watf payloads. Then there are reports of toxic gas hazards hampering rescue efforts. Now TSP has singed the CWC as a non chemical weapon state and was certified by OICW as not having chemcial weapons. So was this another violation by perfidious TSP?

All this tells me lentils are black.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 21:28 
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Quote:
Wonder if massa triggered the avalanche...


What if it was the Pakis themselves?

I wouldn't trust them even if they display the bodies of the soldiers/civilians


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 21:52 
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Manish_P wrote:

What if it was the Pakis themselves?

I wouldn't trust them even if they display the bodies of the soldiers/civilians



If we go by verifiable evidence, the only thing that we can see (from released photographs) is a massive ice dump typical of an avalanche aftermath. Everything else is just fluff at this time.


-M


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 22:05 
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I have a question, say tomorrow in agreement with TSPA and TSP gov, we reach an accord on AGPL and some sort of monitoring too is in place, but still, one fateful day we discover that TSPA true to it's word either has occupied Siachen or has facilitated PRC to occupy, what then? how are we going to respond? declare war both on TSP and PRC? that would be a two front war. Don't you think prevention is better than cure? then why even go there in the first place and why even reach an accord, why not keep Siachen and see if time breaks TSP into pieces then we can demilitarize Siachen then if everything seems alright?


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 22:24 
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i expect the avalanche to be quite natural, the base was perhaps poorly sited, or it was an assumed risk. if it is the main logistics node then the posts on the saltoro are vulnerable or atleast weakened. what needs to be investigated is the date of the avalanche and the timing of various articles. clearly most of the senior level pak demands has come afterwards. my read is that it is trying to preempt giving the political space to India to undertake any adjustments on the ground. this is certainly no time to withdraw from siachen.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 22:55 
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venug wrote:
I have a question, say tomorrow in agreement with TSPA and TSP gov, we reach an accord on AGPL and some sort of monitoring too is in place, but still, one fateful day we discover that TSPA true to it's word either has occupied Siachen or has facilitated PRC to occupy, what then? how are we going to respond? declare war both on TSP and PRC? that would be a two front war. Don't you think prevention is better than cure? then why even go there in the first place and why even reach an accord, why not keep Siachen and see if time breaks TSP into pieces then we can demilitarize Siachen then if everything seems alright?
The time frame you are talking about is a very very long one. TSP breaking is wishful thinking, until done by a third power. New Delhi has decided not to be that third power. No one else is going to do this dirty job for us. Also, if the IA and GoI cannot get its act together and protect even our borders, I will vote for the Chinese to come and rule New Delhi.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 23:10 
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Shaurya ji, You make perfect sense. But the question remains, why then give concessions to TSP and reach an accord in the first place? if we now agree on Siachen what is the guarantee that TSP/PRC combo would not occupy why go for trouble? we should avoid trouble when we can even if we are strong enough to take the duo. Knowing that Siachen is has strategic importance, if once occupied by the dirty duo where is the guarantee that we then can dislodge them? not losing strategic locations too is important if we are to be effective in any future war, even if are to cut them to size all by ourselves.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 23:31 
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Any relation with Siachen and Haqqani going Paki in Afghanistan?


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 23:35 
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http://dawn.com/2012/04/19/pakistan-wor ... gn-office/
Pakistan, India finalising details on Siachen talks: F Off

Quote:
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan said Thursday it was finalising details for the next round of talks with India over the disputed Siachen Glacier, a day after the army chief called for the area to be demilitarised.There have been several rounds of negotiations between Delhi and Islamabad on Siachen in recent years and Pakistan’s foreign ministry spokesman Moazzam Ahmad Khan said Thursday that the plans for the next talks were in hand.“It is being discussed at defence secretary level. The next meeting will be held in Pakistan and they are finalising the dates,” he told reporters.“We have made several proposals under the Siachen dialogue process, including the redeployment of forces.”However, the Foreign Office spokesman stressed that Pakistan had not changed it’s position on Siachen, and that there was no policy change on the issue.It is in our mutual interest that we address all the issues in a meaningful and result-oriented manner,” he said.The two countries would have to find some way to move forward, he added.


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PostPosted: 19 Apr 2012 23:54 
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the interview and comments by Kiyani are a sure shot indication that something is afoot wrt Siachen. It has complete backing from PA. But the million dollar question is this-what is the quid pro quo? Withdrawl from Siachen is PA neccessity, not ours. They need to save their bacon, not us. Pakees are going to behave as if they have done us favor and ask for quid pro quo somewhere esle.
Fancy presentations not withstanding, AGPL needs to be demarcated. All this 'all options open if PA violates' is nonsense.......we refused to budge in face of greater challenges...Siachen is after all a 'desolate frozen wasteland'


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