Siachen News & Discussion

[sanjaykumar]

Peace in Pakistan is not undesirable. Nobody would find fault with that. But stability and peace and Prosperity in pakistan is contingent upon many factors and all of which are in the hands of pakistanis to control. In fact India has done a very little to hinder Pakistani progress. Siachen would not even bring pakistan from the brink of disaster. They need to get their priorities right and set the environment for growth and stability and create condition conducive for others to trust them.

We just need to contain them within their border and LOC etc.

Pakistan is that piece of India where Muslims can play out their Greek tragedy. What happens after the denouement is the strategic question for India proper.

Sir Creek, Siachen are the straws being clutched by a dying Pakistan. If Sir Creek goes to Pakistan, will Sunnis and Shias stop slaughtering each other?

[Sanku]

quote="ShauryaT"]
Also, it is through CBM's such as Siachen, that we should seek the strengthen the hands of those who desire peace against those in Pakistan who are blinded by the Islamic template.

In other words, you want to strengthen the hands of the .001% against the 99.999%, and expect the percentages to be reversed in the long-term.

Symbolically, I think these percentages are reversed today. IMO, over whelming majority desires peace. This drivel of hate, cannot be sustained over a long term. What we should not do is to score a self goal under the ghosts of the past and disengage. It is only through engagement that we can marginalize even further those that seek to work under an Islamist only template.

Shaurya; We have been pretty much on same side of the debates most of the time, but this time, I have to ask --

"Symbolically, I think these percentages are reversed today. IMO, over whelming majority desires peace. This drivel of hate, cannot be sustained over a long term"

I am sorry but what the hell..... What is symbolic reversal of real opinions. By what magic does this symbolism come into reality. Which overwhelming majority desires peace? And peace on whose terms? Peace for what? Something like the peace to have Sharia over all J&K and later India? Peace to blow up Bamiyan Buddha's and the Shankaracharya's temple at their own sweet time?

As Gen VKS said in the last debate, "We are on Siachen commanding heights, they are West of Saltors, they have lied then, they will lie now and again lying when they speak about the situation now. It would be moronic to vacate the position of advantage for any statements from anyone, friend or foe"

That about sums it up I think.

1) It would be stupid to leave Siachen for any reason what so ever, even if the Paki's and the Chinese were made of stuff of goodness itself, since you dont know when the "intents" turn.

2) The above assumes that Pakis and Chinese are good, in reality, as of now Chinese are under a imperialist hegemonic regime and Pakistani's are a collected essence of worst of 1000 years of islamist history.

Just why are we even considering the possibility?

If we want peace with honor? Lets take parts of Pakistan so deep into PoK and forward that Rawalpindi is within shelling distance. That should give us some peace with honor.

As a aside we can let that horrible state and let its pieces descend into a complete nightmare before we get into it to completely dismember it and clean up.

Whats the hurry? Whats the panic?

We will have peace, a peace worth having, a peace on our terms.

[ShauryaT]

Just why are we even considering the possibility?

If we want peace with honor? Lets take parts of Pakistan so deep into PoK and forward that Rawalpindi is within shelling distance. That should give us some peace with honor.

As a aside we can let that horrible state and let its pieces descend into a complete nightmare before we get into it to completely dismember it and clean up.

Whats the hurry? Whats the panic?

We will have peace, a peace worth having, a peace on our terms.

Sanku ji: There is no panic. I started my life on this board, with the need to retake PoK/NA back as the strategic end to the issue of Pakistan, as we know it. But, over the years after exploring various angles of what it would mean to undertake such a mission and the widening gap from political and capability realities has led to a questioning of the likelihood of achieving such a mission, in our life times. If you can point to any credible plan by ANYONE of such a possibility to be undertaken by the GoI, trust me, I will be the first one to jump on the bandwagon. Unfortunately, the answer for me is there is NO possibility - by any dispensation.

In fact, one of the beauties of the above mission would be TSP can still continue to be a viable separate state, but with its rent seeking abilities severely curtailed. This in turn will would lead to peace on our terms. We can dream (no harm) and maybe someday, these may even turn to reality. However, act this generation must. The actions have to be based on today's realities as we assess them. Our country's polity does not have the balls to make peace on our terms, for what that entails, we do not have it in us. The growing of balls and the kshatriya spirit is a long term project. Our energies should be focused on growing this kshatriya spirit back, with the help of our political union, however faulty. We need to minimize the impact of some critical mistakes of the past, for we are not in a position to reverse them. As for us going in and cleaning up, we have a LOT of cleaning up to do in house and are not in a position to undertake additional burdens.

On the question of who do we make peace with. It is with the elite or RAPE as we call them. For every reality of Pakistan as a rabid place with Islamic memes there is another reality that binds them to the Indian land mass. Peace may give us the chance to subdue these Islamic memes (as we have partially done with Indian muslims) and establish our frontiers, where it truly belongs.

I was shocked to hear a hawk, who I thought would be the last one to sign on to the peace narrative as to how aggressively, he thinks, we should move to work with some parts of Pakistan polity. My hope, as we move forward on Sama with certain sections, we should not forget Dana, bheda and danda as elements to be used with other sections. Wise will be the leader, who can use all 4 simultaneously.

On the specific issue of Siachen, I will encourage you to read Brig Kanwal's paper. It is not based on blind trust.

[Sanku]

Shauyra-ji; thanks for the reply. A few fundamental differences.

Retaking PoK -- If you can point to any credible plan by ANYONE of such a possibility to be undertaken by the GoI, trust me, I will be the first one to jump on the bandwagon. Unfortunately, the answer for me is there is NO possibility - by any dispensation.

As of now I agree, I do not see a possibility, but "now" for me is only a 3-5 years period. Things do change suddenly. How long did 71 take into coming?

I would like to wait for that moment, it can come any time.

In fact, one of the beauties of the above mission would be TSP can still continue to be a viable separate state, but with its rent seeking abilities severely curtailed.

This is my first fundamental disagreement, I am sorry but you (Brig Kanwal etc) have not been able to show, with any degree of convincing ability, the truth of the above statement. That is for people like us.

OTOH there are any number of Indians in our establishment which are peacenicks, WKKs, on ISI party circuit, looking at the muslim vote bank etc etc, to whom "the peace dividend" is believable.

Trust me, to me, and most BRFites, it only induces a serious attack of nausea, and I am not being nasty.

We have over 60 years not got a "sooi kee nook ka peace" from the accursed lying two timing incestuous inbred to the west.

We have given them a lot, many times, and got NOTHING in return.

There is NO PEACE DIVIDEND. THERE WILL BE NO PEACE DIVIDEND.

The whole concept of peace dividend with Pakistan is either a bare faced lie by a total scum (like Geelani) or a naive hope by some Indians trying for desperate measures. (Like you/Brig Kanwal)

we have a LOT of cleaning up to do in house and are not in a position to undertake additional burdens.

Then we must wait with status quo. No movement. Not an inch backward.

For every reality of Pakistan as a rabid place with Islamic memes there is another reality that binds them to the Indian land mass.

That reality is long dead, ShauryaT, you sound like a cancer patient uncomfortable with amputation because he still remembers the leg is his own.

They are completely malign. The RAPEs are the worst, they will make deals that they can not honor only to take their cut. They have done it in the past, are doing it now and will do it again.

They are worst of the cess pool that Pakistan is.

Peace may give us the chance to subdue these Islamic memes (as we have partially done with Indian muslims) and establish our frontiers, where it truly belongs.

Subdue? By means such as a number of "respectable" political parties openly supporting known terrorists within India ? "Terrorists will be freed" being part of manifestos? Locking up Hindu innocents so that the real perpetrators can be let off?

This despite all the obvious history and the current demographics of majority and minority?

Sure, and I have a White building to sell you, where the Jat Ruler Suraj Bhan had his astabal.

It is highly questionable whether we have managed to do it within our boundries even or whether Islamist fundamentalism is running virulent on both sides, with each side acting as the bulwark for the other.

I was shocked to hear a hawk, who I thought would be the last one to sign on to the peace narrative as to how aggressively, he thinks, we should move to work with some parts of Pakistan polity.

The Indian establishment still has not come to grips with Pakistan. They treat it like a nation, not a Kabila of virulent Islamism as it is.

Yes the Indian establishment is lagging, on BRF at least we are permitted the luxury of being closer to the truth.

On the specific issue of Siachen, I will encourage you to read Brig Kanwal's paper. It is not based on blind trust.

As I mentioned, I disagree with the fundamental premise. There is no peace dividend. Never has been, never will be.

The only way forward on Siachen is to move IA west of their positions and north.

The only peace we have had with those curs is the few moments of peace after they have been whipped well, in 71 and in Kargil. You want peace, lets whip them again.

And again,

And again.

Till they are finally pacified for ever.

[ShauryaT]

There is no peace dividend. Never has been, never will be.

The only way forward on Siachen is to move IA west of their positions and north.

The only peace we have had with those curs is the few moments of peace after they have been whipped well, in 71 and in Kargil. You want peace, lets whip them again.

And again,

And again.

Till they are finally pacified for ever.

Sanku ji: We will simply have to disagree then. I cannot see our objectives being achieved through a whipping again and again.

[Karan M]

Shaurya T,

Your "hawk" aka Bharat Karnad, the self proclaimed "foremost Indian conservative strategist", is a self appointed expert and one who is clearly not taken seriously beyond a point by the establishment. With quixotic ideas like giving up the Strike Corps, giving Pakistan nukes and what not, no wonder. He even admits as such in his own website & is bemoaning the fact all the time. Without even the most basic of analytical skills to analyze the armed forces & understand how capabilities are built up and retained, his bellyaching makes for amusing but dismaying reading (that such is the quality of so called experts).

It just shows, quite frankly, that for all your sincere posting on this forum, how far away you & your peers are from understanding both India and the Indian MIC & why we do what. Karnad is just useful for picking up whats happening in the so called think tank elite and bits and pieces here and there. Otherwise, his so called analysis of most matters is a joke. His recent depiction of Agni-V tech etc was a hoot as well. He clearly did not even know the basics of what Indian missile technology has achieved and bombastically played up parts which didn't need repeating while missing the critical bits.

He didn't even understand why Agni testing was delayed on account of weather (the basics of both telemetry and range safety considerations were beyond him). His articles on the MMRCA were quite similarly, a huge joke. If he had tried to actually publish any of that in any serious international aviation or trade magazine, he would have learnt there is a fair difference between the cocktail circuit think tank mediocrity and actual fact based analysis.

And this is the strategic expert whom you have been citing on the forum. With due respect, develop your own skills sir, instead of blindly following the arguement from authority position, whether it be Karnad or Kanwal. These guys have in the past written such reams of confused verbiage, across their "works", that they are at best useful for bits and pieces, but never the whole picture.

Similarly, its ludicrous to see Kanwal touting technology as the answer to maintaining Siachen's sanctity if things go belly up. This man, who used to come up with barely updated copy paste stuff, from one article to the next, on the "state of the Indian Army" clearly has little idea of the actual state of affairs when it comes to Siachen and the Army or even several of our other areas. Technology is at best a limited enabler in several sectors especially HA. Come bad weather and it becomes useless. This is the reality today and will remain so over the coming decade.

These are the sort of gentlemen you hint at while deliberately avoiding the more considered and informed position - such as VKS say, by then bringing up civilian supremacy.

Kanwal has torn whatever remains of his rep by pushing this agenda. Sorry, but there's enough evidence to suggest that even his peers will look askance at his claims. Even in scripted shows, his peers have been rubbishing his statements

Last but not least, the reason the Army wants to retain Siachen is because only by retaining it has it been able to stabilize and train the sort of HA capability and infrastructure that can sustain such an employment, with proper training and with minimal injuries. Were a withdrawal to occur and it had to retake the area, a la the '80's, again the casualties would spike up immeasurably. None of you lot even have the ability to answer this fact.

For all the agitation about patriotic credentials being questioned, its clear neither you & sudeep are going to be involved in this retake the heights activity and nor can you with any degree certify Pakistan's change of heart.

Given that, I'd rather take what VKS and many other Army folks state above your belief in CBMs and what not. Your faith in Pakistan changing its spots is also fine. We don't buy it.

Last: You may have given up, changed your views with regards to Pakistan as mentioned prior and are willing to sign on any dotted line to achieve your cherished peace with Pakistan. Perhaps as you have alluded to in the past, like JSingh, get access to some pilgrimage areas or access to ancestral areas ...but, the rest of us could not care less about Pakistan and Pakistanis.

Sorry, we are Indians as much as you & the MMS crowd, and we are not willing to compromise for your requirements. I don't have anything in common with Pakistan, don't want to visit that place, and couldn't care less whether things change or not. However, I regard every bit of current India, within Indian control as something we should retain. Anything beyond that is good to have but not essential.

The serious, non flippant responses on this forum from the bulk of the posters clearly indicate that across the board, the perception is fairly similar. India can and should protect itself by improving its law enforcement abilities against Pakistan insurgents and terror. That does not mean craven surrender in the form of CBMs or whatever you choose to call them.

Furthermore, your expectation of patriotism and so called victory conditions are of the most unrealistic variety. First, you deliberately sought to frame it in the most unrealistic terms - that somehow India/Delhi establish some sort of military defeat of Pakistan within x timeframe or bring about some radical reconstruction of India in order to achieve this....And if this does not occur, its best to give into Pakistan and seek peace on their terms..

Thats just fear mongering of the nth scale.

If India/Delhi is stewing in its own "secular blinkers", that does not mean we become surrender agents and start begging Pakistan for peace. The policy of inaction leading to Pakistan imploding from within if not without is still valid. Let them stew in their own juices, even as we make soothing noises.

If anything giving up territory to Pakistan is just telling them that their behaviour deserves rewarding and that Indian leadership, is stupid enough to do anything for so called peace. It just reinforces their image of India as a weak state.

You like to quote strategy etc at every other place. So, when India is at the cusp of success, and the Pakistani military apparatus is under severe pressure thanks to their relationship with US fraying, Indian economy and MIC pulling ahead, you want to now extend them a lifeline so that they can continue being useless twits, in the "hope" that they will become better.

Those who disagree with you and are outraged by this are to be ignored. You are offended by their use of the word treason or traitors. What would you prefer then? In your personal quest for so called peace, ignoring any and every logical evidence to the contrary, you would have India compromise on its interests, go against the wishes of your fellow citizens and even the current Army Chief, and then expect to be taken seriously.

Sorry, if not treason, its pure delusion. The rest of us are not willing to buy into your desperation for peace at all cost, compromising on Indian interests.

And this is getting very tiresome.

Sudeep's arguments were torn to shreds by many posters time & again. He just came back repeating the same thing again and again, thinking it somehow makes him right and everyone else wrong. You are doing much the same thing sir.

I am sure there are Pakistani or South Asian on the internet who would love to hear from you on this topic. That way you'll avoid wasting our time with the same stuff again and again, and you'll get a better response from those who appreciate your generosity.

In the meanwhile, if you two could please spare this thread from your pronouncements and let it continue as some sort of discussion place for the serious folks to track what the non mango types are trying to do....that would be much appreciated.

As you say, you are just a normal citizen. In which case, its better for us to track what the so called powers that be are saying on this issue of national importance, than having to open this thread each time and see the same old stuff from you and angry responses in turn. Just a request.

Thanks much.

[PratikDas]

I second Karan ji's request.

[rohankumaon]

Excellent post Rohit and Karan!

[member_23360]

very detailed video for siachen discussion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzB7PAie ... ure=g-vrec

[ShauryaT]

Sorry, we are Indians as much as you & the MMS crowd, and we are not willing to compromise for your requirements.

Brig. Kanwal, Lt. Gen. Chibber and Lt. Gen Raghavan, the PM, the NSA and because JJ Singh blurted something in a recent interview are all peaceniks, WKK and worse traitors, according to many on this board. Peaceniks, WKK epithets, I do not care about for they are BRF slangs and have no proper meaning. Traitor however is accusing someone of Treason, a most serious offense under the IPC. My goal to join back the argument was something very specific. It was essentially to show the ludicrous nature of the treason charge. I neither made the argument uncivil, nor pushed my view on anyone. If there were questions asked in a civil manner, I gave my views to many. For the rest of your post, will not waste a second trying to convince you of anything. If you have made up your mind in a certain direction, there is no point furthering an argument. Time to leave this thread now, till something meaningful happens.

[ramana]

KaranM, The reason I got turned of with Kanwal's paper is the platform he chose to participate from. That place is a wing of GOTUS. They specialize in using science and technology to solve intractable issues in US interests. Long time ago they commissioned a desi guy Vipin Gupta to look at sat imagery to see if he can detect signs of nuke test preparation in Rajasthan. This was supposed to be a CBM for getting people to sign the CTBT! So to me their niyat is khraab. So how can any thing come out be good for India.

In US there is an industry of getting India-Pak retired personnel and indulge in pahppi-jhappi. I don't grudge our folks their sojourn at massa's expense so long as its understood its all in fun. But when folks take it seriously based on earlier reputations of the participants then the gloves are off!

[chetak]

KaranM, The reason I got turned of with Kanwal's paper is the platform he chose to participate from. That place is a wing of GOTUS. They specialize in using science and technology to solve intractable issues in US interests. Long time ago they commissioned a desi guy Vipin Gupta to look at sat imagery to see if he can detect signs of nuke test preparation in Rajasthan. This was supposed to be a CBM for getting people to sign the CTBT! So to me their niyat is khraab. So how can any thing come out be good for India.

In US there is an industry of getting India-Pak retired personnel and indulge in pahppi-jhappi. I don't grudge our folks their sojourn at massa's expense so long as its understood its all in fun. But when folks take it seriously based on earlier reputations of the participants then the gloves are off!

As I said a long time ago, so long as a US immigration visa is still desirable for friends and family of the "subvertee", such a US sponsored initiative is bound to succeed in the short term.

The aam admi is slowly catching on to the shennagians of these unemployed loafers on both sides of the LOC. The resultant drivel is now visible to a much larger audience as the internet penetration increases. A cursory survey of many other blogs in India will bear me out on the fact that many in India are beginning to look askance at the public calisthenics of the kangress and their (sweating for crumbs off the table) cohorts.

The kangress "leadership" who so glibly blame the current mess in which we find ourselves economically and socially as the result of "coalition dharma" and under whose watch the stature of the country has been destroyed systematically.

Are we going to trust them to deliver on pakistan?? and keep us safe??

[ramana]

Also look at his name during Parakram.

[ManuT]

ShauryaT ji

(I did not comment on it as I had requested a poll at time).
About BK's article 'brother in arms'. IA and TSPA are not.
All the promises of "brotherhood" went south pretty quickly after partition.

"Indignities" of TSPA mil-attache must be coming from some Paki sense of egos. Do you really think they would like to be present at Vijay Diwas celebrations? What about IA offers of help in quake, flood and avalanche?

BK ji can maybe tell you more about it. ALL Mil Attaches are given a tour. Only thing IA can extend to TSPA is protocol.


Anyways, your position in the last post, is even more confusing i.e. while you say do not want to recover POK, but you are against converting LOC to IB. Making borders irrelevant without first defining where the border IS, is a recipe for more trouble.

There is no NA for me, only POK wrt TSP. If today, POK cannot be recovered it is because the agenda was NOT pushed till the Day it could not be pushed anymore. So here we are today. I can see where you might be coming from. You might be over compensating.

We need to start making friends but that does not means we should indulge in wishful thinking.
Hard (and transparent) Bargaining would be the way to go i.e. if you want to the secure the future.
TSP nor TSPA gets anything on credit/goodwill because there is none.

[ShauryaT]

I do not know, why we are talking of BK's views on military relations here, he has not said much on Siachen beyond a brain wave. I did not respond to KaranM on the BK comments, as they were completely irrelevant and nothing but drivel. The hawk, I referred to in response to Sanku's post is not BK. I understand, that as per the standards of many here, BK is a WKK, peacenik, Traitor and in gloves with MMS - which automatically makes everyone a .....

I have reason to believe that the COAS's Siachen comments are being taken out of context from the interview, as per another hawk, no sorry WKK.

ManuT ji: Let us end it here and wait for the talks or something more meaningful. A little tired of the indefensible remarks on the thread by some, not by you though and I thank you for that.

On a lighter note, told you first about the poll results even before they opened!

[Kanishka]

DNA INDIA

The myths of wild roses and Pakistani presence in Siachen

Indians are nice people. ‘It’s time to resolve Siachen’ says Pakistan army chief Parvez Kayani and immediately voices rise all over India to say, ‘Yes, it would be so nice to finally befriend Pakistan; are we not brothers?’

The good general called for demilitarisation of the Siachen glacier and advocated peaceful coexistence with India. He solemnly stated: ‘The world knows why we are in Siachen,’ inferring that Pakistan troops are positioned on the glacier. However, there is something wrong in the general’s reasoning, for the simple reason that Pakistan has never occupied the glacier, which lies east of the Saltoro Ridge, also in India’s possession. So why should India vacate a place belonging to her and in her possession? To give ideas to the Chinese that India should also vacate Tawang?

In 1984, a certain Brigadier Pervez Musharraf tried his luck. In a ‘Kargil’ style coup, he sent troops to take over the Siachen glacier. New Delhi was compelled to retaliate and occupy the treacherous Saltoro Ridge to stop Pakistan grabbing the gate to the Shyok valley and the entire Ladakh region. Since then, Pakistan has not set foot in the area.

But there are also political myths anchored to the 72 km long glacier: one such myth is that Pakistani troops are occupying the glacier. They are not and General Kayani’s ‘demilitarisation’ would be a unilateral business. Further, the Siachen issue was ‘solved’ long ago, in fact, in July 1949.

Following the ceasefire of January 1, 1949, the military representatives of India and Pakistan met in Karachi between July 18 and 27, 1949, under the auspices of the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan. An agreement was reached and the Line of Ceasefire (today’s LoC) was demarcated. The last point on the map was known as ‘NJ 9842.’ Nobody thought of going further north at that time. The agreement of July 1949, mentioned therefore that the Line extended ‘thence north to the glaciers’ without going into the details.

The important point that is forgotten was mentioned by Lieutenant General SK Sinha, a former Governor of J&K, who participated in the 1949 Karachi negotiations as the ADC to General Shrinagesh, the head of the Indian delegation. Before leaving for Pakistan, the delegates had a briefing from Nehru and the secretary general of the MEA, Sir Girja Shankar Bajpai, who explained the legal position to the delegates. He told them that the UN resolution of August 1948 ‘had conceded the legality of Kashmir’s accession to India and, as such, no man’s land, if any, should be controlled by India during the period of ceasefire and truce.’

This meant that the onus of proof to convince the commission of any factual position, on the date of ceasefire, in any disputed territory, rested with Pakistan. Sinha remembered: “In the absence of any such convincing proof, and even if India had no troops on the date of ceasefire in that area, the disputed territory should automatically come under Indian control… Based on this, we obtained control of several hundred square miles of State territory.’

This position was then accepted by Pakistan and the UN. It remains valid today. To accept Kalyani’ ‘offer’ would be to go against the only legal international document that proves the correctness of the Indian position in Kashmir.

All this to make a visit of the Indian prime minister to Pakistan successful? Indians can remain nice, but they should not be fools.

[Kanishka]

Siachen: Pak banks on PM to deliver after Gen Singh’s exit

Nobody in the external affairs ministry should be fooled. All these are Pakistan’s excuses to get India to move out of Siachen – something it has been desperate to achieve since India holds the high ground on that glacier.

The Indian army has been very clear – from Gen VK Singh downwards – that an advantage obtained with so much sacrifice of men and material cannot simply be gifted away through so-called “demilitarisation” for no advantage at all.

However, the weak link in the Indian position is the Prime Minister himself, who seems to be scrounging around for a diplomatic victory to pull off when his reputation is otherwise in tatters.

According to a report in India Today, as early as June 2005, the PM told soldiers at the Siachen base camp: “Siachen is called the highest battlefield, where living is very difficult. Now the time has come that we make efforts that this is converted from a point of conflict to the symbol of peace.”

But the magazine also notes that Siachen is what the PM may be willing to sacrifice for personal achievement. “Demilitarisation is his CBM (confidence building measure) offer to Pakistan. Cynics suggest that he, too, has become a victim of the Nobel Peace Prize syndrome, trapped by the desire of temporary personal applause at the cost of national interests. It is his ticket to history.”

[Kanishka]

VIKRAM SOOD'S PERSPECTIVES...13th April 2012, Vikram Sood, former R&AW Chief

Why India cannot afford to give up Siachen

The China factor cannot be ignored in this cockpit of the world. It was not so evident in 1984 although the Karakoram Highway had been built by the Chinese by then and Pakistan had illegally ceded a portion of the territory under their control, Shaksgam to them. Today, the Chinese footprint is much larger. In its own strategic interests in the region, China would be interested in greater Pakistani control over Gilgit and Baltistan.

It has been investing $150 million (abour Rs 750 crore) for widening the KKH from 10 metres to 30 metres, to be used by all weather heavy vehicles, the kind that brought strategic material for Pakistan through the Khunjerab.

A rail link was also planned, to be connected with Pakistan's main rail grid, and fiber optic cables were being laid in 2007. If China had a port in Gwadar that they could use, this would cut down the distance from Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea to merely 2,500 km. Today Xinjiang is 4,500 km away from the east coast of China. Gas and oil pipelines through from Gwadar and Xinjiang make sense only if Gilgit and Baltistan is secured. It is not a question of a glacier in the Himalayan heights; it is a question of India's security.

The nation cannot afford to repeat the strategic mistakes of the past -- like halting our advance at Uri in 1948 or not capturing Skardu; or giving up Haji Pir in 1966; or returning 93,000 troops and territory in 1972.

[Kanishka]

Tehelka 28 May 2012
Sentiment cannot hold sway: Jaibans Singh on why demilitarising Siachen is not a good idea for India, despite Pak pleas

ONE MAY ask, what is so difficult about the whole issue that it cannot be resolved? There is a two-word answer — trust deficit. India is, very rightly, not ready to contemplate any change in its advantageous tactical position astride the Saltoro Ridge till such time that the actual position on ground of the two sides is not authenticated on a map; Pakistan is, of course, not ready to do anything which would tie down its options for the future and take the region out of the ambit of being a boundary dispute. This aspect, in itself, nullifies most hopes of a forward movement in the talks.

A third dimension has been added to the problem by the Chinese interest and ingress into Pakistan’s illegally occupied Indian territory of Gilgit-Baltistan. Now in an open and blatant act of felony, it has seceded some strategically important real estate of Gilgit-Baltistan to China. As a result, China can also look covetously towards the Saltoro Ridge. Under these circumstances, even if India and Pakistan reach an agreement for withdrawal of forces from the glacier, what stops China from conniving with Pakistan to occupy the dominant positions? Considering the cosy relationship that exists between these two nations, it would become a classic case of Pakistan having the cake and eating it too.

The expenditure that is being incurred by India to hold on to Siachen is well within the means of the country. If anybody is feeling the pinch, it is Pakistan and that is obvious by the near desperation with which the country is looking for a solution. A problem bigger than the expenditure is the environmental degradation that is taking place in the ecologically sensitive zone due to continued presence of a large body of men and material; India needs to take a call on this aspect by instituting measures to clean up the waste piling up in the area. Beyond this, the country cannot afford to be swayed by the oratory of some ill-informed doves and pressures emanating from a desperate Pakistan. While tasking a positive view of the whole issue, primacy has to be given to facets of real estate, sovereignty, strategic interests and, above all, the trust deficit.

[Kakkaji]

My new definition for 'CBMs' in the India-Pak context:

CBMs = 'Confidence Building Measures' = Measures taken by India to earn Pakistan's confidence. The true measure of the success of such a CBM is how soon, after India has implemented that CBM, does Pakistan hit India with full 'confidence' that no retaliatory action will be forthcoming.

[Kanishka]

My new definition for 'CBMs' in the India-Pak context:

CBMs = 'Confidence Building Measures' = Measures taken by India to earn Pakistan's confidence. The true measure of the success of such a CBM is how soon, after India has implemented that CBM, does Pakistan hit India with full 'confidence' that no retaliatory action will be forthcoming.

The equation = CBM= Confidence Building Measures = Chai Biskoot Meetings. ie CBM=CBM
Anything more than just chai biskoot meetings and the cbm will fail.

[ManuT]

ShauryaT ji

A bit late to get back. Only interested in the spectrum of opinion on the issue. The wider the spectrum the more options for India. No need to aim for a majority to screw TSP a 100% when 1 in 7 will do. Incidently, my choice is was same as yours but, other than that different POVs.

I'll am not holding you to BK ji opinion, just that I must mention that BK ji has been indulging in needless == recently which cloud the issues. Also, I did watch Gen Raghvan's on the line in Peerzada's interview, where he was pretty steady in exlpaining India's position and the "difference of perception" on the matter.

Maybe TSP is doing taqiya as usual till the clear the mess on their side.

No issues from my side with you (or anyone else, for that matter).

[rkirankr]

Isn't giving up territory a treason? Should there not be Parliament approval?

The BJP , so called nationalistic party is so silent on this. Maybe if the windbag was in the gaddi , the windbag would also have done similar things

[Jagan]

Enough of Medieval History. This is the Siachen Thread

[peter]

Enough of Medieval History. This is the Siachen Thread

Prerogative is all yours in how a debate is shaped but medieveal history is very relevant to topics such as the one at hand. Those who do not learn from history, Perish.

[skganji]

I think the best approach towards pakistan should be to give and take. It should be a business relationship and nothing else. Why should Siachen be demilitarized and what is the benefit of this outcome ?. If they can't guarantee a resolution on Kashmir why should there be a resolution on Siachen .

[PratikDas]

I think the best approach towards pakistan should be to give and take. It should be a business relationship and nothing else. Why should Siachen be demilitarized and what is the benefit of this outcome ?. If they can't guarantee a resolution on Kashmir why should there be a resolution on Siachen .

The former Vice Admiral Arun Kumar Singh who wrote of his participation in the Track 2 negotiations agrees with you about the need for quid pro quo.

Deccan Herald: Track 2 musings

Frankly, I would be very happy if these two disputes are resolved amicably. I may add that India needs to give up what is jocularly called “out of box diplomacy” with regard to its western neighbour. It refers to the unilateral, unconditional goodwill gesture made by Indian Prime Ministers who had lived in pre-Partition Pakistan and have nostalgic memories of their childhood years there.

[ShauryaT]

Headline News: Siachen Discussion Gen: V.P. Malik, Gen: Bakshi, Maj. Gen: Rafid Qureshi (all retd) & Praful Bidwai

I did not find Retd COAS Gen. V.P. Malik's position materially different from Brig. Kanwal's.

The talks have begun.

[Manish_Sharma]

Headline News: Siachen Discussion Gen: V.P. Malik, Gen: Bakshi, Maj. Gen: Rafid Qureshi (all retd) & Praful Bidwai

I did not find Retd COAS Gen. V.P. Malik's position materially different from Brig. Kanwal's.

The talks have begun.

How slimy these porkis are. Qureshi catches one word 'captured' by an Indian commentator and blames us for 'capturing' Siachin. Of course no one would have time on the show to talk about how it was porkis who were going to capture it, but based on intelligence inputs IA army countered their move.

General Shri V.K. Singh's statement holds "We would be fools to vacate it." All other chaotic discussions in media don't matter.

Here is the verbatim statement of General on Siachin from the video in the link:
http://www.timesnow.tv/General-VK-Singh ... 402930.cms

General: I have seen Siaching since 13th of April, 1984 when we went out there. I've seen a number of lives lost out there. Today we are sitting on dominating heights which cannot be given away. I am sorry. Who is going to look after them? Today your infrastructure is pretty well advanced, we perfectly ok out there. There are a few enviornmental casualities out there, yes we had a helicopter going down there yesterday.

Arnab: General Kayani seems very concerned about pollution and the environment there, some people find it funny. (Look at General's facial expressions at that. )

General: He's not even on Siachin Glacier he is sitting on the other side of Siachin. They are talking of Siachin glacier but they're not on Siachin. They are west of Saltoro ridge, they've been fooling their people by saying we're on Siachin.
So I think let it....(laughs) let it go, these are all gimmicks from the establishment of Pakistan, which keep coming from time to time, and we would be fools if we follow it.

[Rohit_K]

Two more Paki soldiers killed in land sliding

SKARDU, (SANA): At least two more soldiers were martyred here Tuesday in land sliding in Chorbat sector of Siachen Glacier. The incident took place early Tuesday morning. The two deceased soldiers have been identified as Taimoor and Zahid Shah.

According to the sources the dead bodies have been evacuated and shifted in the nearby hospital; meanwhile both soldiers belong to Azad Kashmir Regiment.

[rohitvats]

^^^^I'm supposing this Chorbat Sector is opposite Chorbat La (which is held by India). If this is the case, this is no where close to Siachen. This falls broadly opposite our Sub-Sector Haneef - which is north of Batalik and south of Turtok. It seems Pakees are trying to gain some cheap publicity here by calling it part of Siachen Sector.

[Kanishka]

Hope the talks fail. It is a shame that we are even discussing Siachen with that terrorist entity whose sole aim is destruction of India. We should be talking about POK.

[PratikDas]

29th May: Hatf IX diwali rocket

Pakistan tests 60km-range nuke capable Hatf-9
Pakistan on Tuesday successfully carried out a test of its quick reaction tactical nuclear-capable Hatf-IX missile with a range of 60 km, aimed at "deterring evolving threats at shorter range."

The military described the test of the "indigenously developed short range, surface-to-surface multi-tube missile Hatf-IX" or Nasr as successful.

A military statement said the missile can carry "nuclear warheads of appropriate yield with high accuracy and possesses shoot and scoot attributes".

"This quick response system addresses the need to deter evolving threats, especially at shorter ranges," it said.

Cross posting from the TSP thread:

31st May: Hatf VIII cruise missile

Pakistan test-fires stealth cruise missile
The nuclear-capable missile, with a range of over 350 kilometres, enables Pakistan to achieve strategic standoff capability on land and at sea.

The cruise missile with stealth capabilities is a low altitude, terrain hugging missile with high maneuverability and can deliver nuclear and conventional warheads with complete accuracy.

President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani congratulated the scientists working on the program over the success of the missile test.

Pakistani missile testing in full swing after "the talks have begun". Is there a better time for the debut of Nirbhay?

[Aditya_V]

Pakistani testing makes no sense when talks are going on (both Raad and Nasr are imported missiles). Are they planning to autheticate AGPL and this is to keep the AAM Abdul Happy?

[svinayak]

Pakistani testing makes no sense when talks are going on (both Raad and Nasr are imported missiles). Are they planning to autheticate AGPL and this is to keep the AAM Abdul Happy?

It is to do with US and US military threat to Pakistan army and Pakistan nation.
Pakis are terrified at the moment.

[ManuT]

I think it is a fantastic article
===

Pakistan's glacier disaster: fallout yet to be felt

http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=sl&nid=2700

On May 29, Pakistan officially announced that 129 soldiers and 11 civilians had died on April 7 after a massive avalanche buried the military unit operating in Ghyari, near the Siachen glacier.

Earlier, on May 26, the Pakistan Army had recovered three bodies from the area. The discovery of these bodies has ended public hopes of a miraculous rescue, and forced deeper introspection on the issue of contested leadership in Pakistan. Therein lies the path that inevitably leads to heightened civil-military tensions and this does not bode well for the current India-Pakistan peace process.

Despite the recovery of three bodies, the situation in Ghyari continues to be extremely difficult. Even with 50 or so of the Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) heavy construction vehicles, the vast amount of snow and rock displaced by the avalanche is frustrating the efforts of the rescuers. The hundreds of Pakistani soldiers working at the site remain at risk of being buried in further avalanches as the rock in the area is quite unstable. The risk posed to the recovery operation is so great that Pakistani Saltoro veterans like Lt. Col. (Retd.) Zaheer ul Hassan have publicly suggested abandoning the recovery operation.

Pakistani positions east of Ghyari are due to run out of supplies in June. In a bid to contain this crisis, the responsibility of maintaining troops and re-supply to positions east of Ghyari has been transferred to a back-up battalion HQ at Goma and supplies are being dumped at Shabbir post, the artillery position east of Ghyari. However, due to the demanding nature of the rescue operations, the supply line to the positions in the middle of the Saltoro range remains stretched thin. It is likely that the Pakistan Army may not be able to meet its usual re-supply and stockpiling goals this summer. It is reported that the four helicopters in use there are logging much higher hours of flight time per day.

An estimated 1,00,000 kg of POL (petrol, oil, lubricants) was stocked at Ghyari. While the extent of recoverable POL at Ghyari is unknown, the POL at Goma should be enough for a few months endurance on the ridge at a normal operational tempo. However, at the present rate, the Pakistan Army will most likely consume the reserves at Goma very quickly. It is unclear at this stage as to how exactly the POL will be restocked.

In short, the human and fiscal costs are adding up very quickly.

For the Pakistan Army, the high costs have to be borne and are worth it. The Army accords the highest priority to the civilian relatives of the soldiers posted in this area. As these people are essential to the morale in the armed forces, the Pakistan Army spares no effort to keep them happy.

The 6 NLI (Northern Light Infantry) of the Pakistani Army has many Shias from the Gilgit-Baltistan region and it played a key role in the Kargil War. Yet, despite everything that the NLI did in Kargil, the Pakistani Army sought to deny the involvement of this unit in the war. In order to support the fiction that Kargil was the work of Kashmiri separatists, the Pakistan Army initially refused to accept the bodies of dead NLI soldiers from India.

Quite naturally, there was great anger in the region and the Pakistan Army backpedalled. It converted the NLI into a regular infantry unit and awarded its war dead proper recognition by conferring posthumous gallantry awards and other honors. Because of this history, today, until the bodies of the buried NLI soldiers are found and returned with honour to the families, the animosity and latent hostility towards the Pakistan Army in the region will remain.

Usually, after a natural disaster in Pakistan, international donors pour in aid money. These funds are deftly sucked up by corrupt Army men and politicians. Unfortunately for Ghyari, there are no international donors. The only funds -- when provided -- are likely to come from the emergency funds in the Pakistani treasury. This is as bad an option, as Pakistan constantly risks defaulting on its international debt obligations. Digging into the civilian budget to respect General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s vow of recovering every body will make the politicians very unhappy and could lead to internal fights. The financial costs aren’t quite as acceptable to the civilians.

As the realisation that Pakistan spends a much higher fraction of its GDP on the Saltoro war than India slowly sinks into the public mind, a cascading blame-game will begin. At present, the Pakistan Army may come across as a more caring and sensitive entity than its civilian counterparts, but deeper questions about the exact nature of accountability in the country are likely to surface in the internal debate. Given the terrible state of the economy, it is only natural for the civilian leadership to ask whether or not to incur the costs of rebuilding the capacity lost at Ghyari -- and such a question will be the veritable red rag for the bruised Pakistan Army.

A bruised Pakistan Army ego may seek to redeem itself by resorting to intimidation and putting the civilian politicians in their place with a coup or pull another utterly unnecessary Kargil-style stunt on the Saltoro range. Either way this plays out, given the state of the Pakistani economy, it is difficult to a see a future where the Ghyari disaster does not exacerbate civil-military tensions in Pakistan and adversely affect the peace process with India.

New Delhi’s initiatives on Siachen should take Ghyari-related developments into account.

[ShauryaT]

Indo-Pak Defence Seretary-level talks fail over Siachen

New Delhi: The two warring nations India and Pakistan on Tuesday failed to come on common terms over the modalities for demilitarisation of Siachen. However, they agreed to continue talks to arrive at a solution to one of the major vexed issue.

While both sides being in principle agreement over demilitarisation of the once world's highest battlefield, India is insisting that Pakistan should authenticate present troop position of the two sides.

At the end of the two-day Defence Secretary-level talks, the two sides issued a joint statement saying the present dialogue has "enhanced understanding" of each other's position and they have agreed to continue the discussions in a "meaningful and result-oriented manner".

The two sides, discussing the issue after a gap of three years, presented their positions and suggestions to each other towards resolution of Siachen issue, the statement said.

At the end of the meeting, Pakistani side handed over a 'non-paper' (an unofficial document) on Siachen which contained its stated position on demilitarisation and other
related issues.

The Indian side said it would "study" it and discuss with Pakistan when the both sides meet next time.

Sources said the mention of non-paper was made in the joint statement following Pakistan's request.

"Both Sides welcomed the ongoing dialogue process. The discussions were held in a frank and cordial atmosphere,.." the joint statement said.

"They (the delegations from the two sides) also acknowledged that the ceasefire was holding since November 2003. Both sides presented their positions and suggestions towards resolution of Siachen (issue)," it said.

The Indian delegation was led by Defence Secretary Pradeep Kumar while Lieutenant General (retd) Syed Athar Ali represented the Pakistani government.

The Defence Secretaries agreed to meet again at a mutually convenient date in Islamabad.

The decision to resume the talks between the two countries was taken last year during the meeting of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani in Thimpu when they decided to take forward the dialogue process.

Siachen, the world's highest militarised zone, has been a long-pending issue between India and Pakistan because of differences on the location of the 110-km long Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) which passes through the Soltoro Ridge and Siachen glacier.

In the Siachen area, the Indian Army has advantageous positions in comparison to Pakistan.

While India wants Pakistan to authenticate the AGPL both on the maps as well as on the ground, the latter insists on maintaining the pre-1972 troop position as agreed in the Simla Agreement.

On its part, Pakistan has been asking for demilitarisation of the Siachen glacier and raised the issue of climate change there due to presence of troops from both sides and its effects on the environment.
JPN/Agencies

[ShauryaT]

Have they heard about email, to not provide this "non-paper" before hand. After all it is not paper I am always amazed with babudom, in all nations. They are the same everywhere!!

[ShauryaT]

ManuT: Hope you know, who the author is and what is his agenda? It is no secret.

[RamaY]

^ ShauryaTji

Can you please elaborate?