SSridahr ji: The way I see it PA realized that defeating us conventionally to wrest Kashmir fell out of their imaginations after 1971 itself. Hence their rationale to acquire a nuclear deterrent. They are scared of an Indian escalation on the lines of 1965, 71 and hence could do nothing against Op. Meghdoot. In 1987, all they could do against the fear of Brass Tacks was nuclear signaling. Since 71, it has been mostly asymmetrical, in the hope that we will crack at a political level and not be able to cope. 1999 again was laughable from a conventional perspective, they were scared enough that all they could do is move just one brigade to shore up defenses for Skardu, which they feared would be attacked but still wanted to retain enough strength in the south to put up a credible defense. Post Parakram (which again showed that we are willing to escalate - a legacy of ABV), there is increasing realization that non-conventional routes will not lead them anywhere, there are various reasons for it, chief among them the increasing conventional asymmetry along with our economic and political strengths.
Pakistan's "increasing realization that non-conventional routes will not lead them anywhere" did not stop them from many number of train attacks, the mumbai attack. Hell it did not stop them from hiding Osama, giving a free run to Hafeez Saeed or kandahar hijack released Masood Azhar from threatening India on live tv.
The only reason for the "relative" jihad reduction as I see is Pakistan is utilizing them in afghan and making them wait in the sidelines.
Where India has lacked severely is in responding effectively in the unconventional area. A Bofors shell for every bullet would be a fitting response (conceptually). You should read Gurmeet Kanwal's views on them, for those who think he is WKK and what not, way too many ill informed opinions by many.
Another appeal to authority.
I have said this before, too many times by now. Siachen is a CBM. By itself it is not meant to solve anything, except achieve demilitarization in a glaciated zone. All it does is tells the PA, that India can de-escalate in a zone of conflict without foreign involvement or when things are hot as if in a war and across a negotiating table, that is all. It can act as a template for the rest of the LoC, if successful. In the past you have stated that PA is not rational but I differ. From the way I look at it, they have been fairly rational from their perspective of where they stand to protect their interests as they see them. Rationality does not mean, they will act the way we think they should. Also, does not mean, we agree with their choices as to serve their best interests. But, that is the thing, how does one define their interest? For the PA it is survival of the self first and foremost and then then the state and then everything else, such as Kashmir and control over Afghanistan.
The template already exists.
If survival of PA is your aim in doing it, why should India care? India should care about what India gets, its risks and benefits. If PA survives or blooms, no sh*t off India's back as long PA doesnt do it on Indias back.
I have not said give any land, nor anyone else, I have used in my arguments. There is a presumption made that demilitarization amounts to "giving away" but I disagree on this type of a definition. Delineation of AGPL, and then a trust but verify plan for demilitarization is the envisioned solution of the GoI and that will do for me.
Do you know that there is supposed to be a no man's land of around 5 km on LoC initially. If there is a vaccuum somebody will occupy it.
In military sense, no mans's land is nonsense and fradulence of highest order. Except for very rare case,no man's land is a very flawed concept and is used only by duping charlatans of highest order.
Good that in your example you went back to pre-independence to trace the ideological motivations of TSP and I agree, no Siachen is going to change that but no one has claimed it will or such an ideological change of intent, is even the immediate goal. Siachen serves the purpose of a CBM as explained above. If you take next incremental concrete steps, which at our pace could take 20 more years, if it goes smooth, you may get something on the lines of peaceful co-existence and if that succeeds, you can then slowly take it somewhere towards co-option. There are no magic solutions to the ideological divide and as responded to ramana and other previously, do not think we are ready. The day, as ramana stated, India becomes Bharat and the name Hindustan is used instead of India and we learn to be comfortable in our own skins is the day we can think about taking on the ideological battle. Till then other means will have to be found.
1) You are providing a rosy future of something which might or might not come to pass and using that future asking to give up something today(vacate Siachen) and in that rosy future you have to revert it again (occupy Siachen). I am sorry what kind of nonsense is this.
2) Other means for doing what is the question.
I am sorry, this is non-sequitor. If you use every Paki idiots imaginations to block a geo-political compromise then you will find one. They can ask for whatever, does not mean we have to be ready to compromise, at their terms. It is only, if it serves our interests a compromise should be done.
Why is it a non-sequitor? He is using your exact same logic to the last full stop.
You are using the same "Paki idiot imaginations" of geopolitics for appeasement.
People such as NSA SS Menon are experienced hands from the MEA. The MEA babus are no bunch of fools, who do not know what they are doing and neither shall they allow a large hearted Politician (few exist anymore, because of fractured mandates) to sing on the dotted line. At max, you will find goof ups like SeS, which are not more than political platitudes, at least the PA reads them as such, IMO.
Yes sir, with all due respect to them. They are not gods. Many times clasped in their own ideological pretensions, they forget how an a$$ looks and how an hand looks. Sorry appeal to authority doesnt work.
The same MEA babus couldnt see 1962 while everyone around were shouting at the top of their lungs. With their "experience" they definitely saw kargil from lets see how far. They took Kashmir matter to UN without realizing consequences. They do SeS like yesterday and instead of the complete and natural domination which is easily possible in Nepal, we are off trying to compete with China in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangaldesh.
Doesnt mean they are not working or any thing like that. But they are bound by their ideological fulminations.