West Asia News and Discussions

[shyamd]

Big escalation next week. SAMs will now be deployed as of next week. More later.

[shyamd]

The low down is Hillary is in town next week to check on progress. So there is a sudden effort now by turkey to sort things out. They are losing the will of the west with systematic killings and breaking human rights. So They have decided to integrate all the smaller units into national units and give them training on geneva convention etc.

More as and when time permits

Command and control and integration of non FSA groups into FSA going to take place. Tlass will attend the meetings.

SAMs will be provided by Libya. A unit has undergone training and is ready. So they have paralysed the ground forces via IEDs and anti tank weapons. Now war is moving to the air.

Name change from FSA to National Syrian free army

[shyamd]

Russian military advisor killed in Aleppo - other important documents seized.

------------
First video of defected PM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7C9GqXZ ... r_embedded

[Johann]

The Syrian defections are in great part due to the huge sums being secretly offered to the defectors,plus the offer of a significant role once Assad is toppled.

Philip,

The average defector among the tens of thousands who quit the regime is not a general or a colonel, but a conscript.

Do you really think switched sides for money?! Or power?!

Conscripts who show any sign of wavering are likely to be shot, so defecting is incredibly dangerous.

He doesn't get to hang around in a hotel in Paris or Ankara - rather he goes straight back into the field where he has to fight his former units - but with far less firepower, usually outnumbered, and little logistical support.

He has to smuggle his family out with whatever they can carry. If they get caught they could be shot. If they make it through after abandoning their homes they have to live in a refugee camp.

Ask yourself - whats in it for him to make it worth all those risks and sacrifices when the easiest and safest thing is to stick with the government?

[brihaspati]

The character of revolutionary dynamics is different in ME from North Africa, even though both are sometimes wrongly subsumed within the so-called pan-Arabism or "Islamic world". North Africa belonged to the Mediterranean circuit, civilizational flow from the Bronze age, and reflects in many way the fierce tribalism that characterizes Europe. While, ME - had long been steamrolled under empires - for a much longer period than southern Europe. Thus the character of any so-called revolutionary upsurge in ME differes in character from any similar one in North Africa.

ME "revolutions" happen as they happen in totalitarian societies - they happen when the society realizes that the totalitarian regime will be unable to sustain itself against determined alliance of external and internal enemies. Because of this, no ME reovolution ever sustains itself unless the revolutionaries are seen to have sufficient support. Because these are totalitarian societies, this implies, that such support must therefore be from "outside".

ME revolutions are more about the vast majority of the commons trying to survive and stay away from the hassles of a regime change, and the more opportunistic among them hedging their bets once their instincts tell them that the winds are changing with an overwhelming array of forces that their totalitarian ruler will not be able counter. Convinced that regime change is inevitable, they will be desperate to prove themselves more staunch an opposition to their ruler than they really care at heart.

North African revolutions have a greater proportion of ideological rebellions [Algerian anti-colonialist movement for example] compared to ME ones.

The Palestinian "revolution" against Israel would not have been sustainable if there were not covert and overt support from a host of forces even from within the western axis in addition to USSR and hedgers like pre-90's India. Same has been the story of every "revolution" in ME from house of Sauds ascendancy to the Iraqi coups, and Iranian revolutions. Egypt being teh frontier has a peculiar dynamics which is a combination of the North African and the ME.

If now in Syria, it seems people are deserting Assad - its because the supporting understructure of Assad regime is hedging its bets. Let us not be too starry eyed about the revolutionary fervour of the ME. They had a small tendency to "revolution" based within urban intelligentsia and a portion of rural landless - but Islam, with its institutions always allying or compromising with a dominant military power - foreign or domestic or a comprador one, neutralized such genuine indigenous undercurrents of revolution.

In two or three generations, when these sections and their strategies get more exposed, and the Islamic network gets entangled in the sewerage of power - could perhaps the genuine ME revolution take off. Not now. This is more "reaction" than "revolution".

[Johann]

Brihaspati,

These very ordinary men are not defecting and fighting for an ideological cause like democracy or theocracy. But they are not fighting for money and power either as Philip suggested.

What I've seen in case after case of defection is that the tipping point moment is when the Syrian Army is used to attack their home town. Once that has happened, the decision is not if, but exactly when and how to defect will be best.

When an attack takes he hears from their friends and relatives of people he knows who have been killed, arrested, tortured etc. That trusted information punctures through all of the swirling uncertainty of rumours and counter rumours.

In my experience identity in the Middle East is very, very local. These men see any attack on their home villages and towns as a personal attack on their family, their home and on themselves.

Their first instinct is to help defend against that attack, and avenge the losses they have suffered. That desire for vengeance is why they want to see the regime fall, and why things so often get ugly after victory.

This localism is why resistance is usually so fragmented, whether in Libya, Syria, Iraq or Lebanon. These are all local guys who know each other or are related to each other either directly or indirectly. Coordinating with people they dont know from other areas is not easy for them.

That localism is also the reason why foreign jihadis will not be tolerated for long after the main struggle ends.

[abhishek_sharma]

A trip report from Israel

[shyamd]

Actually Johann , it's a mixture of both - hope to gain on the other side and what you have said. The killing of innocents affects the lower ranks a lot. For the higher ups - its the price but in certain cases yes families friends killed does have an impact.

----------------------

Egyptian air force launch offensive against Islamists in Sinai. F16s and Helicopters used. They attacked an army cement factory yesterday so this as well as the killing of 16 Egyptian troops seems to have moved the Egyptians.

Egyptian PM was attacked by families of the soldiers killed.

[Austin]

Russia Denies General Killed in Syria

MOSCOW, August 8 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Defense Ministry dismissed as "complete lies," Free Syrian Army claims on Wednesday that it had killed a Russian general.

"The goal of broadcasting such statements is not just to cause a sensation, but a clear attempt at a slur toward the Russian Army," the Defense Ministry press service said in a statement.

Al Arabiya broadcast a video earlier on Wednesday in which the Free Syrian Army claimed to have killed General Vladmir Kojaiv and his Syrian translator, and showed what the FSA claimed was his identity card with a photo.

"General Vladimir Petrovich Kuzheyev was dismissed from military service in 2010 and is currently in good health and located in Moscow," the Defense Ministry said.

[shyamd]

MUST READ!

America's uneasy Gulf allies adding to arsenals

By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press – Jul 30, 2012
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — While Iran's military loudly trumpets every new project or purported advance in hopes of rattling the U.S. and its Gulf Arab allies, the U.S. is quietly answering with an array of proposed arms sales across the region as part of a wider effort to counter Tehran.
In the past two months, the Defense Department has notified Congress of possible deals totaling more than $11.3 billion to Gulf states such as Qatar and Kuwait, which are seen as some of America's critical front-line partners in containing Iran and protecting oil shipping lanes.
The proposed sales — including Patriot missile batteries and Apache attack helicopters — are still modest compared with massive Gulf purchases such as Saudi Arabia's $60 billion package last year. That deal included more than 80 new F-15SA fighter jets, missiles, radar warning systems and other equipment.
But the recent flurry of expected sales from U.S. firms, approved by the Pentagon and outlined in notifications to Congress, underscores the growing emphasis among nervous Gulf states on seeking quick upgrades to existing firepower and defensive networks.
The arms sale need congressional approval, but usually few objections are raised for key allies such as Gulf nations.
Gulf worries about possible military action against Iran have increased with diplomatic efforts making little headway in easing the showdown over Tehran's nuclear program, which the West and others fear could eventually develop atomic weapons. Iran says it only seeks reactors for energy and medical uses.
An Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, reported Sunday that National Security Adviser Tom Donilon briefed Israeli officials on possible U.S. attack plans if diplomacy and sanctions fail to pressure Tehran to scale back its nuclear enrichment program. A senior Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential talks, denied the Haaretz report.
The news reports reflect the uncertainties in the region with negotiations nearly stalled and Iran trying to push back against deepening sanctions on its vital oil exports.
"There was a bit of a breather in the region when (nuclear) talks resumed," said Bruno Tertrais, senior researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. "That is quickly fading."
In its place: a sense of military adjustments moving at a faster pace.
Washington plans to keep at least 13,500 troops in Kuwait — down slightly from the current 15,000 — but with an expanded mission as a potential rapid-reaction force for the region. The Pentagon also has scores of warplanes and other assets across the Gulf, including air bases in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
At sea, the U.S. Navy plans to lead maneuvers in September that include minesweeping drills — a clear response to Iran's threats to block oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf in retaliation for the tightening Western sanctions.
The U.S. is also boosting its Gulf flotilla, directed by the Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain. Among the additions: a floating assault base aboard the retrofitted USS Ponce and accelerated deployment of the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis to ensure two carriers are in the Gulf region at all times.
"We are seeing more and more bluster from the Iranian side and the U.S. and Gulf allies showing the Iranians they are a united front," said Theodore Karasik, a regional security expert at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. "The Gulf states are nervous. They show this nervousness by buying more weapons."
Among the proposed U.S. sales is a $4.2 billion package to Kuwait for 60 Patriot missiles and related systems to "strengthen its homeland defense and deter regional threats," the Defense Department said in a statement. Kuwait could also buy, pending congressional approval, a $49 million arsenal of 300 Hellfire II missiles, which can be launched from helicopters or drones.
For Qatar — which hosts one of the Pentagon's command hubs — the Defense Department is seeking clearance for a $6.6 billion air support upgrade that includes 24 AH-64D Apache attack helicopters, 12 Blackhawk helicopters and 22 Seahawk helicopters, with options to buy six more.
The Apaches would assist with "protection of key oil and infrastructure and platforms which are vital to U.S. and Western economic interests," the Defense Department said.
Oman, which shares control of Hormuz with Iran, is seeking an $86 million purchase that includes 55 Sidewinder missiles as part of plans to upgrade its F-16 fighter fleet.
For decades, the Gulf had looked mostly to Washington for its weapons, but European arms deals also appear on the rise.
In Berlin, German government spokesman Georg Streiter said Monday there has been an "expression of interest" by Qatar in about 200 Leopard II tanks. A similar Leopard tank deal with Saudi Arabia was reported last year by German media.
In May, Saudi Arabia signed a $3 billion deal with Britain for air force training planes apparently linked to a 2007 agreement to buy 72 Eurofighter Typhoon fighters.
The weapons requests also reinforce the toughening stance against Iran by main rival Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states. The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council has repeatedly warned Tehran about "meddling" in Gulf affairs. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have taken a leading role in supporting Syrian rebels trying to topple Bashar Assad's regime, which is Iran's main Mideast ally.
Last week, a commander of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards warned that "hated Arab" rivals could face repercussions for their efforts to bring down Assad.
Although the Gulf Arab states have no direct ties to Israel, any military strike on Iran by the Jewish state could require some degree of coordination, with Washington likely to play an intermediary role. Gulf military forces also could be quickly drawn into a wider conflict or a confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for one-fifth of the world's oil.
"Amid the standoff between Iran, Israel and the West, there's another side that is often overlooked," said Sami al-Faraj, director of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies. "It is the Gulf states. They are the ones caught in the middle."
Associated Press writer Frank Jordans in Berlin contributed to this report.

Egypt launches first air strike on militants in Sinai since 1973, killing 33

Strikes follow clashes between armed men and security forces at several security checkpoints in the Sinai region, and deaths of 16 border guards last week.
By Reuters and Avi Issacharoff | Aug.08, 2012 | 6:31 AM

Egypt launched air strikes in the Sinai region close to the border with Israel on Wednesday, killing at least 33 suspected Islamic militants, the state-run Ahram news website said.

The air strikes on positions in the town of Sheikh Zouaid followed the deaths of 16 border guards last Sunday in an attack blamed partly on Palestinian militants.

The incident marks the first time the Egyptian Air Force has been called into action in Sinai since 1973. As per peace agreements, Egyptian Air Force activity in Sinai must be coordinated with Israel.

The Egyptian General Intelligence Service, the body responsible for collecting information and thwarting attacks by foreign entities, reported that according to information in the agency’s possession, the attack in which 16 Egyptian border guards were killed was carried out by rebel groups from Gaza and Sinai.

Murad Muwafi, head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service, stated that his agency held information concerning a possible terrorist attack prior to the attack on Sunday night. According to Muwafi, the Egyptian General Intelligence Service is not an operational organization, and as such the information was passed on to the appropriate operational entities.

Witnesses in Sheikh Zouaid, about 10 km (six miles) from Gaza, said they saw two military jets and heard sounds of explosions. Other witnesses in a nearby area said they saw three cars hit.

The strikes follow clashes between armed men and security forces at several security checkpoints in the Sinai region.

Armed men opened fire on several checkpoints in Arish and in the nearby town of Rafah on the border with Israel, according to a Reuters reporter and state media.

A Reuters reporter said one policeman and one resident had been confirmed wounded in these attacks.

Lawlessness in the rugged desert region bordering Israel has spread since the fall of autocratic leader Hosni Mubarak in an uprising 18 months ago and the election of an Islamist successor whose commitment to security cooperation with the Jewish state has yet to be tested.

One of the checkpoints attacked on Wednesday has been attacked 28 times since the uprising, the state-funded Middle East News Agency said.

A few hours after the eruption of the clashes, hundreds of protesters gathered in Arish demanding state protection and chanting "God is Great."

Security forces closed Arish's main highway shortly after the start of the attacks.

Earlier on Tuesday, crowds of angry mourners wept at the military funeral in Cairo of the 16 guards killed in what was the deadliest assault in decades along Egypt's tense Sinai Peninsula border with Israel and Gaza.

In reaction to Sunday's attacks, Egypt began to seal off smuggling tunnels into the Gaza Strip, a security source said.

A Reuters reporter in Rafah said heavy equipment was brought to the Egyptian side of the tunnels, which are used to smuggle people to and from Gaza as well as scarce food and fuel for the small territory's population.

They needed satellite pictures of the targets before the strike was launched - so obviously Israel provided that. Israel - Egypt cooperation continues.

[Aditya_V]

The above is just an example of why SIPRI claims of India being the world's largest importer are just loud Farts.

I am sure UK import of Trident missiles never make it to SIPRI calculations

[shyamd]

Interesting article about Hindoo's in Kuwait Times

Kuwait ‘tolerant country’ to practice religious beliefs – Discrimination not widespread

KUWAIT: Hindus represent the majority of the more than one billion people in India. Although Kuwait Times failed to secure official statistics as to how many Hindus are represented in Kuwait, surely there are thousands of them. However, Hindu is not a welcome religion here, as compared to Christians and other religious denominations. Kuwait bars their religious practices here, as they found some of their rituals offensive to Islam and, so, they are instructed not to build temples for their religious worship.

Last Monday the US State Department released their International Religious Freedom Report in which they classified Kuwait among the rows of countries to be classified as a ‘tolerant country’ for practicing religious beliefs. Although the report says there are minorities who are experiencing some discrimination on an individual level, it was neither systematic nor widespread.

The constitution calls for “absolute freedom” of belief and for freedom of religious practices, in accordance with established customs, provided that it does not conflict with public order or morals. Speaking with the Kuwait Times on the condition of anonymity, a follower of the Hindu religion said they might have no physical temple, but Hindus can practice and worship their gods privately. “We have lots of underground temples here,” admitted a Hindu follower.

“They are being run privately, because of the ban on Hindu practices, but we do worship our gods secretly. Temples can be in private villas and flats, and there are some in schools,” he added. “We are not being barred from doing that, thanks to the government for being so lenient and tolerant when it comes to that. For instance, we can celebrate diwali here openly, if you will come to the houses of Hindus during diwali you can see electric lights everywhere, and we are not being barred from displaying those, and we can sell sweets related to our festival, so we are happy in that regard,” the source added.

For Christians and the likes, they are free to practice their religious beliefs here. In fact, some Christian denominations are requesting the Kuwaiti government to provide them with land to accommodate their growing number of members.

“As a Christian, I never experienced discrimination here. In fact, we are very happy that every Sunday or Friday we could come and visit our churches here to worship our God freely,” said a Christian believer, talking with this reporter. The US State Department claimed that popular protests in Bahrain during the ‘so called Arab spring’ and the subsequent Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) intervention resulted in increased sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shia in Kuwait during the year, and some members of the Shia community were subjected to harassment and threats of physical violence.

“Well, there are reports of such, but we are okay here, we are normal, just like the Sunnis, I don’t think we can mix religion in politics, but we are as free as anyone else here,” said Hussein, a member of the Shiite Islamic religion. The US report revealed that based on voting records and personal status documents, 70 percent of Kuwaiti citizens belong to the Sunni branch of Islam and the remaining 30 percent are Shiite. There are approximately 150-200 Christian citizens and a small number of Baha’i citizens. An estimated 150,000 non-citizen residents are Shia. While some areas have relatively high concentrations of either Sunnis or Shia, most areas are religiously well integrated.
The largely non-citizen Christian population is estimated to include more than 450,000 members. The government-recognized Christian communities include the Roman Catholic Church, the Coptic Orthodox Church, and the National Evangelical (Protestant) Church. Other recognized denominations include the Armenian Orthodox Church, the Greek Orthodox Church (referred to in Arabic as the Roman Orthodox Church), the Greek Catholic (Melkite) Church, and the Anglican Church. There are also many unrecognized Christian religious groups with smaller populations. There are an estimated 300,000 Hindus, 100,000 Buddhists, 10,000 Sikhs, and 400 Baha’is.

[sum]

However, Hindu is not a welcome religion here, as compared to Christians and other religious denominations. Kuwait bars their religious practices here, as they found some of their rituals offensive to Islam and, so, they are instructed not to build temples for their religious worship.

Speaking with the Kuwait Times on the condition of anonymity, a follower of the Hindu religion said they might have no physical temple, but Hindus can practice and worship their gods privately. “We have lots of underground temples here,” admitted a Hindu follower.

“They are being run privately, because of the ban on Hindu practices, but we do worship our gods secretly.

Strange definition of religious freedom

And these MoFos give awards on communal harmony to Indians and ask for taking good care of Muslims in Desh when they say that Hinudism is against rituals of Islam and so shouldnt be allowed in their own country.

[Lisa]

Egypt launches Sinai air raids

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19174773

but yesterday,

Egypt's Brotherhood blames Sinai raid on Israel's Mossad

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19154090

Therefore, Egyptian military has hit an incorrect target, onlee!

[brihaspati]

However, Hindu is not a welcome religion here, as compared to Christians and other religious denominations. Kuwait bars their religious practices here, as they found some of their rituals offensive to Islam and, so, they are instructed not to build temples for their religious worship.

Speaking with the Kuwait Times on the condition of anonymity, a follower of the Hindu religion said they might have no physical temple, but Hindus can practice and worship their gods privately. “We have lots of underground temples here,” admitted a Hindu follower.

“They are being run privately, because of the ban on Hindu practices, but we do worship our gods secretly.

Strange definition of religious freedom

And these MoFos give awards on communal harmony to Indians and ask for taking good care of Muslims in Desh when they say that Hinudism is against rituals of Islam and so shouldnt be allowed in their own country.

Utility theory : what is your utility equivalent between practising Hinduism openly in Kuwait - and the gazillions of money that you [and deshi processors of your remittances taking commissions] are making in Kuwait? Surely the money that you are making is compensating for your loss of religious freedom! This is how we make everything gradually a monetary commodity.

[brihaspati]

Johann,
the large majority of a country's population never participates directly in any revolution. Most people are risk avoiders and not takers - even at the cost of losing close family or kins or village connections. There are pretty good statsitical studies on refugee phenomenon - which shows that even after losing family, the large portion of the victim side do not choose to take the radical step of joining against the aggressor. They avoid conflict.

The impact or reach of a revolution seems much bigger than it really is - because of the propaganda associated on both sides of a power conflict. The ME is no exception.

[pentaiah]

They are here in Aleppo run for your lives

[shyamd]

Posted yesterday:

The low down is Hillary is in town next week to check on progress. So there is a sudden effort now by turkey to sort things out. They are losing the will of the west with systematic killings and breaking human rights. So They have decided to integrate all the smaller units into national units and give them training on geneva convention etc.

More as and when time permits

Command and control and integration of non FSA groups into FSA going to take place. Tlass will attend the meetings.

SAMs will be provided by Libya. A unit has undergone training and is ready. So they have paralysed the ground forces via IEDs and anti tank weapons. Now war is moving to the air.

Name change from FSA to National Syrian free army

Just now reuters released:
Syrian rebels sign battlefield 'code of conduct'

* Code comes after video showed executions

* Says any captive should be treated as POW

Aug 8 (Reuters) - Some prominent Syrian rebel fighters have signed a 'code of conduct' committing them to observe human rights in their battle to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, a week after video footage showed rebels executing pro-Assad militiamen in Aleppo.

The code, which activists said was signed by leaders of several rebel brigades, included pledges not to rape, torture or kill captives.

Free Syrian Army rebels will "respect human rights in accordance with our legal principles, our tolerant religious principles and the international laws governing human rights," it said.

Any soldier or Assad supporter captured by the rebels should be treated in accordance with laws governing prisoners of war.

"I pledge not to practice any form of torture, rape, mutilation or degradation. I will observe prisoners' rights and will not exercise any of the above practices in order to abstain confessions," the rebel code said.

Rights groups have accused Assad's forces of committing violations including torture and killing of captives. But last week footage emerged showing rebels executing four suspected "Shabbiha" militiamen, loyal to Assad, in Aleppo, with fighters gloating over the bodies in a police station overrun by rebels.

The Aleppo-based Tawheed brigade, believed to have captured the men who were shot dead in Aleppo last week, was not on the list of signatories, which included fighters from Deraa, Deir al-Zor, Sweida, Hama and Homs.

The leader of one of the brigades confirmed to Reuters he had signed the accord, but said he did not consider the commitments in the code to be binding.

Another rebel said his brigade refused to sign the conduct because they had reservations over some of its articles. He refused to specify.

[Mahendra]

[pentaiah]

How can somebody be rebel if they obey law?

[Theo_Fidel]

Yes! That what the British wanted as well. If only those damn 'darkies' would follow the law.....

[Johann]

Johann,
the large majority of a country's population never participates directly in any revolution. Most people are risk avoiders and not takers - even at the cost of losing close family or kins or village connections. There are pretty good statsitical studies on refugee phenomenon - which shows that even after losing family, the large portion of the victim side do not choose to take the radical step of joining against the aggressor. They avoid conflict.

The impact or reach of a revolution seems much bigger than it really is - because of the propaganda associated on both sides of a power conflict. The ME is no exception.

B,

I have been talking about what motivates the majority of low level military defectors.

Of course by definition the military is not the majority. But on the other hand conscription means you do have a pretty broad cross section of society.

[AbhiJ]

Muslims petition Egypt not to include Shariah

Signatories of the letter include Rep. Keith Ellison, D-Minn., the first Muslim elected to Congress; Imam Mohamed Magid, president of the Islamic Society of North America, the largest Muslim organization in America; as well as the Rev. Hegomen Moises Bogdady and the Rev. Michael Sorial, priests with the Coptic Orthodox Archdiocese of North America. James J. Zogby’s Arab American Institute sponsored the letter.

[Philip]

Syria: Assad regime launches 'savage and barbaric' assault on Aleppo
Fighting is raging in the Salaheddin district of Aleppo as rebels pull back from their positions and the Syrian army mounts a "savage and barbaric" assault to seize back control of Syria's largest city.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... leppo.html

The Syrian army has claimed that it is back in control of the beseiged district, a rebel stronghold, but the Syrian Observatory said the fighting was continuing.

"Fighting is still raging in the district of Salaheddin and there are initial reports of many dead," said for Human Rights. "It is impossible to document the casualties because of the ferocity of the clashes," said Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman.

A Syrian security official told AFP that the worst fighting was focused on two main streets in the district.

"At one o'clock (1000 GMT), the army controlled three quarters of the district, but it is falling very quickly," he said.

"Once those streets were conquered, all of the terrorists' defence system collapsed, faster than we thought. The objective is to take control of Saif al-Dawla to the west, and then afterwards to focus on the eight (rebel-held) districts to the east, but this may take some time."

Colonel Abdel Jabbar al-Oqaidi of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FAS) denied the reports.

"It is not true the regime army has seized control of the district," he said.

"It is true that there is a barbaric and savage attack. They are using all the weapons at their disposal to attack Salaheddin, including fighter jets, tanks and mortars."

Col al-Oqaidi said there was fighting in many other districts, but that it was concentrated in Salaheddin because of the "great symbolic value for us and the army."

Reuters reported from Aleppo on Wednesday morning that Syrian rebels had abandoned their positions in a district that has been a frontline of fighting in recent days.

“We have retreated, get out of here,” rebels told reporters.

A rebel commander told AFP that army tanks had penetrated Salaheddin on Wednesday morning, sparking fierce clashes with the insurgents.

"The regime forces advanced into Al-Malaab Street with tanks and armoured vehicles and fierce fighting is now taking place in the area," said Wassel Ayub, a commander in the rebel FSA.

New satellite images have shown the impact of the Syrian regime’s intensified bombardment of Aleppo the day after Bashar al-Assad pledged to crush Syria’s rebels “without respite”.

President Assad used a rare television appearance on Tuesday to dismiss high-level defections from his regime and to vow that he would cleanse Syria of insurgents.

“The Syrian people and their government are determined to purge the country of terrorists and to fight the terrorists without respite,” he said.

Satellite images released on Wednesday reveal the extent of the Assad regime’s war on rebels who control most of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and commercial centre.

But despite the onslaught the Free Syrian Army on Tuesday claimed to be holding up the regime's advance at the end of a day marked by intense fighting on the front line and shelling of rebel-occupied areas.

Amnesty International said that analysis of images from Anadan, a small town near Aleppo, revealed more than 600 probable artillery impact craters a residential housing complex from the fierce fighting over the north western city. (Click here to view larger image)

The human rights group is concerned that Assad’s deployment of heavy weaponry in residential areas will lead to further human rights abuses and grave breaches of international law.

“Any attacks against civilians will be clearly documented so that those responsible can be held accountable,” said Christoph Koettl, an Amnesty spokesman.

“The Syrian military and the opposition fighters must both adhere to international humanitarian law, which strictly forbids the use of tactics and weapons that fail to distinguish between military and civilian targets.”

Over the weekend the Syrian military has stepped up shelling and air strikes while completing the build-up around Aleppo of 20,000 troops in readiness for a decisive battle over the coming days.

The head of the UN observer mission in Syria, Lieutenant General Babacar Gaye, has voiced concern for civilians trapped in the fighting in the city of some 2.7 million people.

Rebels say they control around half of the city.

In Aleppo, clashes rocked several central areas of the city while the army also shelled rebel-held areas in the east, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The fighting in and around Aleppo killed at least 20 people, the watchdog said, adding that the nationwide toll was 122 on Tuesday.

Near Homs in central Syria, opposition gunmen attacked an electricity company housing compound, killing 16 people, including Alawites, Christians and Sunnis, the Observatory said.

And rebels attacked an oil field in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor, triggering clashes in which four rebels and six soldiers were killed, it added.

Riad Hijab, Syria’s former Prime Minister, who defected from the regime to the rebels on Monday has gone to Jordan in a move that was widely seen as a sign that the Assad regime is crumbling.

Jordan's King Abdullah II said last night that Assad might make a "worst case scenario" retreat to an Alawite stronghold if he falls from power.

Experts have predicted that if Damascus falls to rebels, Assad could take refuge among Alawites in the north eastern mountains of Syria, where opposition forces say he has already been stockpiling weapons.

“I have a feeling that if he can't rule Greater Syria, then maybe an Alawi enclave is Plan B,” King Abdullah said in an interview with US television network CBS.

“That would be, I think for us, the worst case scenario - because that means then the break up of Greater Syria.

“That means that everybody starts land grabbing which makes no sense to me. If Syria then implodes on itself that would create problems that would take decades for us to come back from.”

King Abdullah predicted Assad would keep up his brutal crackdown to cling to power because he “believes that he is in the right”.

“In his mentality, he is going to stick to his guns... I think the regime feels that it has no alternative, but to continue... I don't think it's just Bashar. It's not the individual. It's the system of the regime,” he said.

Source: Reuters and AFP

[pentaiah]

You can see Su 22 Su 24 attacks of Aleppo on CNN reports

[shyamd]

More air strikes today - more than previous days. The state media who claimed victory and said to have 'cleansed Aleppo' are contradicting themselves as more air strikes continue in the same area.

Chief of protocol of the presidential palace defects

[Austin]

Saudi Arabia 'to Shoot Down' Iran-Bound Israeli Planes

Saudi Arabia has threatened to shoot down any Israeli aircraft over its airspace en route to or from Iran, the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Thursday.

The message was passed via senior U.S. officials during recent talks in Jerusalem.

Both Israel and the United States have said they may consider a military strike to put a stop to Iran's disputed uranium enrichment program.

Washington and its allies say Iran is developing an atomic bomb, an allegation Tehran denies.

The paper said the route over Saudi Arabia was one of four air routes identified by Israel's intelligence for a possible attack on Iran.

Saudi Arabia is equipped with U.S.-made fighter jets and sophisticated defense systems, Israeli media reported.

Israel would have to use at least 100 aircraft should it decide to launch a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, the New York Times said in a report in February. The planes would have to fly some 1,600 kilometers over hostile territory.

Israeli bombers flew through Saudi airspace in July 1981 in an operation to destroy Iraq's Osirak nuclear power station. No aircraft were shot down during that air raid.

[Aditya_V]

Saudi Arabia can do jack shit, Isreal and Uncle would have it in such a way that Saudi Typhoons, tornados, F-15's and SAM's will not be able to lock on to an Isareli aircraft. Only question is do they want to cause such massive H&D loss to the Saudi regime, better take the Jordan, Iraq IRAN route.

[pentaiah]

Saudi Arabia 'to Shoot Down' Iran-Bound Israeli Planes

Saudi Arabia has threatened to shoot down any Israeli aircraft over its airspace en route to or from Iran, the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Thursday.

The message was passed via senior U.S. officials during recent talks in Jerusalem.

Both Israel and the United States have said they may consider a military strike to put a stop to Iran's disputed uranium enrichment program.

Washington and its allies say Iran is developing an atomic bomb, an allegation Tehran denies.

The paper said the route over Saudi Arabia was one of four air routes identified by Israel's intelligence for a possible attack on

Saudi Arabia is equipped with U.S.-made fighter jets and sophisticated defense systems, Israeli media reported.

Israel would have to use at least 100 aircraft should it decide to launch a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, the New York Times said in a report in February. The planes would have to fly some 1,600 kilometers over hostile territory.

Israeli bombers flew through Saudi airspace in July 1981 in an operation to destroy Iraq's Osirak nuclear power station. No aircraft were shot down during that air raid.

It's like India saying any attack on TSP will not be tolerated. We will express our solidarity with TSP and send submerge the world with reams of Faxes urging restraint on all sides possibly from all directions

It is called TPP aka Time Pass Posturing

[shyamd]

Psyops, but this may have not been a coordinated release here.

[shyamd]

Barak: A nuclear Iran is taking shape before us. Time for decisions is short

DEBKAfile Special Report August 9, 2012, 2:15 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Ehud Barak Iran nuclear US-Israel Intelligence Syria Egypt

Defense Minister Ehud Barak
Stout refutation of reported disagreements over the military option against Iran’s nuclear program between the US and Israel, and himself and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, took up most of a long radio interview given by Defense Minister Ehud Barak Thursday, Aug. 9. He explained that US and Israeli intelligence essentially see eye to eye on this matter and so do he and the prime minister.
Barak referred to the new US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran as confirming that both capitals understand that not much time is left for making decision on whether or not to go on the offensive against Iran’s nuclear facilities and when, because, he said, “a nuclear Iran is taking shape right before our eyes.”
Defense Minister Barak's key remark was this: "I am aware of an American intelligence finding (not the new National Intelligence Estimate) that brings American intelligence assessments [of the current state of the Iranian nuclear program] very close to ours. This makes the Iranian question [i.e., the issue of the Iranian nuclear program and a possible military operation against it] extremely urgent," he said without further explanation.
Barak disclosed that the US and Israel have been essentially of one mind for many months in their estimates of Iranian nuclear progress and the factors holding Tehran back from starting to build a nuclear bomb. All options therefore remain on the table, he stressed.
DEBKAfile's military and intelligence sources add: American-Israeli talks about a military operation against Iran wound up months ago in early 2012. The administration was made aware that notwithstanding President Barack Obama’s objections, Israel would soon go into action against Iran's nuclear facilities.
This presumption has been adopted as their working hypothesis by the top US command echelons, from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey and down to the head of the US Central Command, Gen. James Mattis, who has both Israel and Iran in his jurisdiction.
Barak stressed that he and the prime minister are in total harmony on this issue. "What we (the prime minister and I, and the Americans) understand is that there is not much time left for deciding [about an attack on Iran]"
He referred in answer to a question to the comment by former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy made last week: “if I were an Iranian, I would be very worried in the next twelve weeks.”
To this, Barak said "There is some basis to what Halevy said." He added: “We will soon have to make some difficult decisions.”
As to the public disputes over the media on the wisdom of attacking Iran, the defense minister said some of the debates and public disclosures not only harm Israel’s security but actually aid Tehran.
The price of allowing Iran to attain a nuclear weapon will be much greater than the cost of an attack. It is already happening, said the Israeli minister. "And we must take into account the dangers and the very steep price in human life and in resources, if Iran goes nuclear. First, we must consider the outcome of first Saudi Arabia, then Turkey, and then the New Egypt becoming nuclear powers in their turn.”
Asked about an unattributed report Thursday that Saudi Arabia had sent a message to the Obama administration threatening to intercept any Israeli bomber planes using its air space to strike Iran, Barak replied he was not familiar with any such message. But, he said, Saudi Arabia is a sovereign state and makes its own decisions like any other country.
He went on to warn that another consequence of Iran’s nuclearization would be the strengthening of terrorist elements in the region, such as Tehran’s proxy, the Lebanese Hizballah.
At the same time, Barak also said: It's quite possible that we may have to deal with Hizballah anyway.”
This was taken by DEBKAfile’s sources as suggesting that Hizballah is a rising menace - both because of its support for Bashar Assad in the civil war and for performing Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks on Israelis in different parts of the world.
In discussing the situation in Egypt and Sinai-based jihadist terror, Defense Minister Barak asserted his confidence that Egypt is capable of dealing with it. “But I can’t say whether it has the will to do so,” he added.
For more than a year since Mubarak’s overthrow, “Israel has been readjusting its military and intelligence resources in the areas abutting Egypt and Sinai,” he said. "We have deployed an Iron Dome missile interceptor battery near Eilat in case it becomes necessary in that sector."
Barak did not elaborate upon what he expects to happen in the Eilat sector, which is the southernmost point on the Israeli map, or against whom the missile defense system was deployed.
He did offer a prediction on Syria, estimating that quite soon "we would see Syrian President Bashar Assad hunkering down with his army in a fortified Alawite enclave" encompassing the Syrian coast and the Alawite Mountains.
"The longer the war in Syria drags on," he said, "the greater the prospects of total chaos."
The defense minister underlined the importance of attempts to renew peace negotiations with the Palestinians as quickly as possible. He cited the growing strength of Hamas and its ties with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and in other Arab countries as lending urgency to the revival of the peace process.
"On this issue, time is not on our side," he said. "But if progress proves evasive, both of us [Israel and the Palestinians] may be faced with having to perform certain mutually-agreed unilateral measures.”

Olmert refused 2007 invite to address Arab League, support Saudi peace offer

Haaretz learns that although meetings were held in effort to promote the idea, the then prime minister backed out at last minute, choosing the Palestinian front over a regional solution.
By Akiva Eldar | 15:57 09.08.12 | 28

During his term as prime minister, Ehud Olmert rejected an invitation by former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and other Arab leaders to address an Arab League convention and set in motion a regional process based on the Saudi peace initiative.

Haaretz has learned that the initiative first took place in a conference hosted by the Spanish Foreign Ministry in Madrid in 2007, marking 15 years to the original Madrid conference, where talks between Israel, the Palestinians, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria were initiated. The 2007 convention was attended by senior officials from Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, as well as Palestinians and Israelis.

The Israeli delegation included Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor (who did not hold an official position at the time), former ministers Moshe Shahal and Shlomo Ben Ami, Member of Knesset Yisrael Hasson (Kadima) and former MKs Dalia Rabin, Ophir Pines and Colette Avital.

The Palestinian Authority was represented by Fatah leaders Jibril Rajoub and Nabil Shaath. Several European foreign ministers also attended the assembly, along with the European Union's foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

In a speech delivered in Arabic, Shahal called on the Arab League to invite officials of the "Peace Circle," which he headed at the time, to present their response to the Arab peace initiative, as well as the Saudi Peace initiative from 2002. Such invitation, Shahal suggested, would helpful in exploring the possibility to advance toward a comprehensive solution based on the Arab initiative, which offered Israel peace and the normalization of relationship with all Arab League nations in return for an Israeli withdrawal from the territories captured in 1967, and an agreed-upon solution of the refugee problem based on UN resolution 194.

In a meeting with Osama El-Baz, Mubarak's advisor at the time, Shahal was asked if there was a possibility of mobilizing the Olmert government to support the Arab initiative. Shahal expressed willingness to offer Olmert to declare that, in principle, Israel was ready to hold talks with all Arab states concerning a regional agreement, based on the frameworks of the initiative, on condition that Olmert be invited to present the declaration in a special Arab League assembly, as former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat was invited to address the Knesset in Jerusalem in 1977.

Enthusiastic about the idea, within hours El-Baz notified Shahal that he had spokes with Mubarak, who was willing to promote an Arab League resolution on holding a special convention. Prior to the move, El-Baz requested Shahal to confirm that Olmert is on board.

At El-Baz's request, Rajoub and Shaath were informed of the initiative. Rajoub said he was set to fly directly to Cairo to encourage Mubarak to promote the move. Returning from Cairo, Rajoub met the Israeli group in Tel Aviv and informed them that the Egyptian president had decided to move ahead. In the days that followed, El-Baz informed Shahal that Mubarak had received support for the idea from the kings of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morroco, as well as the Gulf States.

On February 25th 2007, a meeting was held in Tel Aviv in preparation for the Cairo meeting. Following this, the Egyptian Foreign Office announced that "Round Table" conference would be held in Cairo on April 15th. El-Baz informed Shahal that Mubarak ordered Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul-Gheit to hold a preliminary meeting with him, along with an Israeli envoy sent by the Israeli prime minister. Several other Arab officials were supposed to attend the meeting, including Arab League secretary at the time Amr Moussa and representatives from Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, the Palestinian Authority, and perhaps even Saudi Arabia.

Leading up to the "Round Table" talks, Ehud Barak's former advisor Pini Meidan-Shani attended a preparatory meeting in Cairo on the 18th and 19th of March, reporting its results to the "Peace Circle" group.

On March 21st, Shahal and Dalia Rabin met with Olmert and informed him of the talks with the Egyptians, requesting his blessing. Shahal suggested that a team appointed by the prime minister give the Israeli representatives detailed directions concerning the positions presented in the meeting.

Olmert responded that the "idea was commendable," adding however that unfortunately he lacked political support, and that his standing in the polls was far from encouraging. He suggested that Shahal would attend the Cairo meeting, declaring that he is doing so with the knowledge of the Israeli prime minister. Shahal answered that he would do so only if sanctioned to say that he is acting at the prime minister's authority. Olmert then requested that he be given time to consider the matter, promising a decision would be reached shortly.

Meanwhile in a Riyad summit in March, the Arab League decided to send the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan to Israel in attempt to raise public and political support for the initiative. Since the minister's visit was scheduled for April, it was decided that the preparatory meeting in Cairo would be postponed to May. At the same time, the U.S. began setting in motion negotiations with the Palestinians, and decided to hold an international conference in Annapolis with the participation of Arab foreign ministers and senior officials.

Choosing the Palestinian front over the regional, in his speech at Annapolis Olmert referred to the Arab initiative in a positive manner, stopping short of saying that he would be ready to hold negotiations in its framework, or accept it in principle. The prime minister said he "was aware" of the initiative, "respects its importance," "acknowledges its contribution," and has no doubt that "we will consider it yet again as part of the negotiations we will hold with the Palestinian leadership."

Attempts made by U.S. secretary of state at the time Condoleezza Rice to persuade Saudi Arabia to declare normalization gestures with Israel as part of the Annapolis conference failed since the Saudis were adamant that any such gestures would only follow an Israeli acceptance of the principals presented in the Arab initiative.

The negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians following Annapolis put an end to the effort for a regional move.

In the fall of 2008, Shahal called El-Baz hoping to revive the idea of inviting Olmert to address the Arab League. El-Baz offered to put the move on hold until after election results in Israel will be known.

Verifying the details, Shahal told Haaretz that "sadly, an opportunity to bring on an historic change in Israel's relations with the Arab world was missed."

Olmert's advisor Yaakov Galanti confirmed that the meeting with Rabin and Shahal had taken place in March 2007, adding that "for a variety of reasons, which we cannot disclose, it was decided to continue with negotiations within the Annapolis framework without convening yet another international conference."

[Mahendra]

Saudia is indeed the most mercifool of all the middle eastern democracies. Shame on Israel for rejecting their offer

[shyamd]

Tehran is reportedly cutting a deal to get rid of Bashar and preserve Hezbollah.

[Philip]

"Amateurs talk tactics,professionals talk logistics...."
This well known saying appears to be the key to victory in Syria as both sides are experiencing difficulties as this report says.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/au ... r-al-assad

Is Syria's balance of firepower close to a tipping point?
As Free Syrian Army blames ammunition shortage for pulling back in Damascus, regime is also struggling with logistics issues

Xcpt:
[quote]There is a modern military saying: amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics. If evidence were needed of the truth of that, it was supplied last month in the fighting in Syria's capital, Damascus, when an offensive by opposition forces sputtered out as its fighters ran short of ammunition.

In the fighting for Aleppo the same problems seem to be recurring. On Thursday opposition fighters, under heavy pressure from a regime assault, finally pulled back from the Salahedin neighbourhood. As they did they blamed shortages of ammunition, not least of rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), which some commanders have said they have been using at a rate of some 60 a day. Petrol, too, has increasingly become an issue.

But is not only the opposition that has had problems with logistics. According to reliable accounts, the Syrian armed forces have also had difficulties, not least in maintaining the serviceability of the attack helicopters on which they have become increasingly reliant.

In a conflict in which President Bashar al-Assad's armed forces appear unable to defeat an opposition growing ever more effective, both tactics and logistics have suddenly become crucial. So what has happened?

The reality is that while the military balance between the two sides remains hugely uneven, the opposition has been able to play to its advantages – in the short term at least – while the regime has found it increasingly difficult to exploit its strengths as the fighting has moved to the country's largest cities.

When the conflict began, the Assad regime had more than 300,000 troops under arms and could call on more than 100,000 militia and paramilitary personnel. While defections and combat casualties are likely to have made some inroads into that total, experts believe regime forces are still likely to be two to three times larger than the 70,000 or so the Free Syrian Army claims to have fighting on its side.

The regime also maintains its monopoly on air power, with little hard evidence that the FSA – despite its claims to the contrary – has significant numbers of anti-aircraft missiles or the training to use them.

In terms of armour, opposition forces remain hopelessly outgunned, claiming just over half a dozen captured tanks and some other armoured vehicles against the almost 5,000 the regime had at the outbreak of hostilities.

Despite all that, analysts believe things have changed. "My sense is that the military balance is shifting," said Jeffrey White, a former US intelligence officer who now comments on Syria for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

"People are always looking for the mythical turning point in Syria. There has not been a decisive moment but there has been a change."

White, like others, believes that one decisive factor has been improvements by the FSA's fighters in using what weapons are easily available to them, captured or bought from the army, and improvements in the quality of their leadership despite continued heavy losses among leaders.

"What they have got – like small arms and RPGs – they are using much more effectively," he said. "They are also using captured anti-aircraft systems like the ZU-23s and Dushkas much better."

The result, White believes, is that the regime is taking ever higher numbers of casualties. "In the last couple of months we are talking about 150-160 killed a day," he said.

What is counterintuitive – despite all the talk of weapons deliveries for the FSA paid for by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar and talk of US and Turkish intelligence and co-ordination assistance – is how little hard evidence there is so far of large amounts of weapons being delivered from outside. What evidence there is of weapons entering the country suggests that so far it has largely been small arms. JBelgian journalist and blogger Damien Spleeters has been attempting to identify the source of small arms that do not appear to come from the Syrian military, including Belgian-made FAL and Austrian Steyr AUG rifles that have been seen in rebel hands.

Some reports have suggested they have been smuggled from Libya via Iraq into northern Syria. Instead, examination of still photographs, videos and first-hand reports indicates that most of the weapons acquired by the opposition are of Syrian origin, largely older, Soviet-supplied equipment.

One fighter interviewed by Reuters in late July described how his own unit, operating in Idlib province, had obtained its heavy weapons. "We took their anti-aircraft guns, the booty, and left a dozen of their men dead," said Radwan al-Saaour, 26, a former labourer from Latakia.

"We did not have the experience to lay explosives, or any coherent leadership … but this is now changing," said Khaldoun al-Omar, another rebel interviewed at the same time. "The battles are looking more like warfare between two armies, even though they far outgun us."

The growing effectiveness of the FSA has been fuelled by a number of factors that are likely to be increasingly important even if the rebels lose the current battle for Aleppo.

As the Assad regime has lost control of more of the rural areas, the opposition has found it easier to move men and arms, while denying the same ability to the regime.

Despite that, some observers believe the regime retains considerable military resilience in terms of personnel and equipment. They argue that Assad's generals, anticipating a crisis over the Golan Heights, had topped up their military arsenal to be able to fight a two-year conventional conflict against Israel if necessary.

However, a number of experts say that one significant feature of the latest phase of the fighting appears to be a change in tactics by the regime.

It has placed far greater reliance on the use of air power in the fighting around Aleppo, including use of an L-39 jet to strafe rebel positions and the dropping of 550lb OFAB free-fall bombs from Hind helicopters, while holding back ground troops and tanks until the last few days.

While some have interpreted this as a shortage of artillery in place around the city, other have suggested that it signifies an increasing unwillingness to risk the loss of troops loyal to Assad through casualties or defection.

Colonel Richard Kemp, a former British army commander who contributed to a recent report by the thinktank RUSI on the trajectory of the Syrian conflict, said he had heard "whispers" of the FSA acquiring anti-aircraft missiles from outside, "but nothing concrete". But he believes that most of the assistance from the US and its Gulf allies is likely to have been with communications, training and intelligence. He also pointed out that the regime has been in receipt of similar aid from Iran and Russia.

"The question in any case is how useful sophisticated weapons would be to a force like the FSA," he said, adding that Turkey and the US are likely to be cautious about supplying anti-aircraft weapons that could fall into the wrong hands.

"People will remember what happened in Afghanistan where it was necessary to have a buy-back programme for Stingers that were supplied."

Like others, Kemp has detected a change of regime tactics in the battle for Aleppo as the FSA has grown more confident militarily. "It is possible that is because the regime itself is aware that the more the fighting escalates, the greater the risk there is of outside intervention," he said.
[quote]

[shyamd]

Reuters reporting Syrian and Jordanian troops engaged in firefight across the border. Armoured vehicles and tanks involved.

Night time is when most of the infiltration takes place

[shyamd]

Another high level defection from deraa and the Jordanian border is on fire. They are targeting all the Sunnis from deraa, only few left now

[shyamd]

3 high level defections - both civilian and military. Will be announced as soon as they and their families are out of Syria. But this could take many days.

Poor Riyadh Al Assad - the supposed head of the FSA was rejected to attend the meeting with Hillary Aunty in Turkey. Manaf Tlass has a seat on the table though as well as heads of the brigades in Syria.

The coming weeks will be more interesting as you will see helicopters and airplanes fall out the sky.

They are trying to prove themselves to Hillary and west - so all need to look like professionals and walk and talk like professionals.

----------
Bahrain and KSA will send back their envoys to Tehran and resumption of relations. Basically they want to resume closed doors dialogue

[RajeshA]

Bahrain and KSA will send back their envoys to Tehran and resumption of relations. Basically they want to resume closed doors dialogue

This is the usual "Art of War". The Saudis know that Iran is under tremendous pressure from Israel (and West). Israel is firming up plans to attack Iran on the nuclear issue.

The Saudis are sending out signals to Iran, saying look - don't try too hard to save Assad! There is life beyond Assad. Saudi Arabia and Iran can be friends. This doesn't have to get out of hand and become permanent hostility. True, after that Iran would not be an equal and would have to live with a far lower profile, due to the loss of Syria, but even that lowly life is livable.

Secondly by improving relations, Saudis don't want Iranians to take revenge for Syria, by inciting the Shias in Saudi Arabia's East. All that is not in the interests of the Saudis.

Basically Saudi Arabia wants the Iranians to take their defeat quietly. They are trying to disarm Iran before the Iranian backlash. To sweeten the deal, the Saudis have said it out loud that they wouldn't allow Israel to use their aircraft over Saudi airspace against Iran.

[shyamd]

^^ just to add to above: read in conjunction with the news that KSA will attack Israeli planes in the event of an Israeli strike. All coordinated psyops of course. Iran told the P5 to prevent Israeli strike as long as talks continue.

hit the nail on the head there. Well done RajeshA ji

They used the same tactic in 2007 to tell the Iranians that KSA will ensure no strike/war by Unkil in exchange for peace.

[Pranav]

An article by Bhadrakumar, this one is very perceptive -

Tehran reaches out to Egypt’s Morsi - http://www.voltairenet.org/Tehran-reach ... to-Egypt-s