Syrian Resistance : Strategy and long term implications.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 18 Aug 2012 15:01

Forouk Al Sharaa - Syrian VP defects. His cousin the head of political and information division general defected day before yesterday and said the VP also defects. But today he fled to Jordan.

He is not 1 of the 3 I am talking about though.

James B · Post by **James B** » 18 Aug 2012 18:59

So its pretty much confirmed that Bandar Bush is dead

a fight to the death was brought home to the Sauds with the killing on July 23 of Bandar bin Sultan — former ambassador in Washington and close to the US government — by a bomb that exploded in the offices of the General Intelligence Agency he headed. If Bandar couldn’t be protected, no one in the Saud family is safe. It explains the Saudi vehemence in dealing with Iran and Assad.

http://newindianexpress.com/opinion/article587034.ece

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 18 Aug 2012 19:04

Maybe Assad himself will defect soon? or his two children and wife may defect.

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 19 Aug 2012 00:15

BJi ji
I was watching CNN and they are saying Assad himself is defect.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Aug 2012 02:12

ME expert Robert Fisk with this special report.

Special report
Damascus: A deserted city, a deserting UN, and a storm about to break

Last week a UN security guard was kidnapped, tortured and murdered near his home
Robert Fisk Author Biography

Saturday 18 August 2012

"He will not survive," my Syrian friend said, and I think he was right.

The man on the state television was bearded down to his chest, a self-confessed Salafist – nom de guerre "Abu Dolha", real name Ahmed Ali Gharibo. A Syrian – "alas," said my friend – from the Ghouta district of Damascus. He admitted, right there in front of the cameras, that he "regretted" killing 200 people with his own hands.

What did it take to get a man like this to admit such things on television? Sitting up in this breezy villa, 16 miles from Damascus – Bashar's brother Maher lives just round the corner – I could well believe what my friend said: Ahmed Gharibo will not survive.

Like all civil conflicts, rumours turn into facts, facts into rumours. Damascus is almost deserted, near-empty boulevards with more military checkpoints than traffic lights, some "mukhabarat" security, some army, the occasional "shabiha", friendly to me – they would be, wouldn't they, as I drive towards the elite mansions outside town – but a bit down-at-heel.

"How in the West, being advocates of democracy and liberty and freedom, can you support these people?" my friend asks. "Do your readers know that Her Majesty sends weapons and money to these people?"

I am about to point out that HMG claims that it doesn't give weapons at all – the word "claim" is all-important in Syria these days, like the conspiracy theory of history.

"The first step to dismantle Iran is to dismantle Syria – we are isolated and 123 countries are against us; that was the figure of those who gathered for the so-called 'Friends of Syria' conference in Paris."

I begin to think of the Serbs and their total conviction that the world was against them, that their innocence was without question. Ah, but like the old Yugoslavia, you only have to walk the streets of Damascus to realise that the storm has not yet fully broken. Behind the walls of the old French mandate barracks down from Umayyad Square, the burned wreckage of this week's fuel-truck bomb stands below a wizened tree. Was it aimed at the run-down "caserne" that the Syrian army still uses or a little trick for the UN officers in the Dama Rose Hotel across the road? The last 100 military observers are packing for the road journey to Beirut airport on Wednesday. The transit point of Beirut rather than Damascus airport tells its own story. "We are defunct in five days," I heard one of the UN officers say in the lobby. Funny word, "defunct", French for dead.

But maybe the truck bomber wanted the UN dead too? Shortly after the explosion, several aimed shots were fired at the UN's third-floor hotel offices. Is it true that a Syrian camera crew were already on the eighth floor, ready to tape the bomb? That ambulances came within three minutes?

The UN were beginning to realise that their men were increasingly endangered in the provinces. In Aleppo, they started off with a 30-mile radius of the city and within months, their government escorts would not venture beyond the last government checkpoint on the city limits. The rebels were less friendly to the UN, and several of the international observers saw foreign fighters among the "Free Syrian Army".

Last week – the UN has not exactly advertised the fact – a security man working for the UN, a former government security agent, was kidnapped and tortured and then murdered near his home north of Damascus. They found 20 bullet wounds in his body. The UN's men are not talking – rarely have they been so uncommunicative – but they have counted the corpses in Artous, 25 miles west of Damascus, 70 bodies in all, Sunnis, in a mass grave, just two weeks ago. Killed, it seems, by the "shabiha".

The FSA have been well and truly cleared out of the centre of Damascus – the suburbs at night are a different matter – and few Damascenes seem to believe that the armed rebels are winning in Aleppo.

"The Christians are protesting," another Syrian friend tells me. "The Greek Catholic Archbishop of Aleppo has just made an appeal to the Western powers not to send weapons to the fundamentalists. The Syrian Catholic church in Aleppo has now been bombed."

How does one reply to all this? Does the Syrian government really want the UN to leave? "No!" cries my friend. "We want UN pressure here to force these 'people' into dialogue."

The Salafist told his audience today that his enemies were "Alawites [of course, for Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite] and Shiites and Christians". So is that it? War by television? An acknowledgement that the man won't live long beyond this broadcast. And the UN are indeed leaving. There is an idea of a miniscule office remaining in Damascus with a military and a political observer. But otherwise, the great gloomy eyes of the UN donkey will close sleepily on Wednesday; it's the failure of another mission – and not a single international soldier will be left behind to watch the storm burst.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 19 Aug 2012 16:19

Counter intel is on the chase for one of the 3 people and yesterday they were shelling border towns, one of which is where 1 of the big defectors was hiding. He hasnt reported for duty for 1 week.

------------------------------
Ramana :

Syria Rebels 'Aided By British Intelligence'

Sky NewsSky News – 6 hours ago

Forces loyal to President Bashar al Assad have reportedly used helicopter gunfire and mortars in the battle for Aleppo, amid fresh claims British intelligence is helping rebel fighters to oust the Syrian leader.

According to an opposition official, information on Syrian troop movements is helping rebels launch successful attacks on regime forces in the second city, where both sides have been locked in fierce fighting for weeks.

"British intelligence is observing things closely from Cyprus," the official told The Sunday Times.

"It's very useful because they find out a great deal.

"The British are giving the information to the Turks and the Americans and we are getting it from the Turks."

The newspaper quoted the official as saying British authorities "know about and approve 100%" intelligence from their Cyprus military bases being passed through Turkey to the rebel troops of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

"The British monitor communications about movements of the government army and we got information about reinforcements being on their way to Aleppo," the official continued.

"We hit at the government troops in Idlib and Saraqib (southwest of Aleppo), with success."

It is the first indication that British intelligence is playing a covert role in the anti-regime revolt.

Aleppo - the country's commercial centre - has become the focus of the 17-month conflict, partly because of its strategic location near the Turkish border.

On Saturday, opposition fighters clashed with Syrian troops close to the city's airport.

Meanwhile, Syria denied reports that Mr Assad's deputy, vice-president Farouq al Shara, had defected.

More than 18,000 people have died in the bloodshed so far and around 170,000 have fled the country, according to the United Nations.

the above is just only part of the story. British have deployed an extensive force for the first time since Iraq invasion.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 20 Aug 2012 02:03

Syria shells Jordan border killing a few people on the Jordanian side. Jordan has reportedly issued a demarche.

Syrian TV reports that the MoD has placed both borders on red alert

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Aug 2012 20:24

Saudi support for Syrian rebels shaped by tribal, religious ties

Every time I talk to a group of Syrians, I learn another layer of the complex construct that weaves Syrian society together and complicates any analysis of the conflict.
Talking to Syrians in Saudi Arabia is no different. Of three Syrian National Council representatives I met who live there, two told me they shared tribal ties with Saudis.
The three were actively campaigning to support the rebels back home. Guns -- big guns -- were at the top of their wish list in meetings with Saudis. Although the Syrians told me they weren't sure any were being sent, I'd have been surprised, if they told me they were. Such issues are shrouded in secrecy.

What did surprise me, however, was the two Syrians with tribal ties who told me their motivation was to support their own tribes back home. Other Syrians, too, they said -- but tribe first.
The borders of Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Lebanon were drawn up in 1916 by French and British cartographers, indifferent to the realities of tribal life straddling the new lines emerging over the desert sands.
Today those historic tribal ties are paying dividends for Syria's rebels. The ancestral connections are igniting sympathies among some of the region's richest people. Thousands of Saudis, Kuwaitis, and Qataris share tribal kinship with their Syrian cousins.
Add to tribal sympathies religious conviction. Most Saudis are Sunni Muslims, the same as the Syrian majority who kicked off the uprising. It's little wonder that when the residents of the desert kingdom dipped their hands in their pockets for the Syrians, they didn't disappoint.
Close to half a billion Saudi riyals -- almost $150 million -- was raised by the end of Ramadan, a 30-day period of fasting and giving that ended this weekend. Most of it was given during a five-day telethon, much of the rest deposited in an account in a Saudi bank.
The three Syrians I met told me they don't know what the money will be spent on, but they do know they won't get their hands on it.
In the post-9/11 era, Saudis have cracked down on fund-raising to the point that all cash coming in for Syria is tightly controlled by the Saudi Interior Ministry. It's an attempt to prevent extremist groups like al Qaeda from benefiting from Saudi largesse.
But that, according to the Syrian trio, may be hard to enforce. SNC member Mohammed Alterkawi, who also represents the high council of the Free Syrian Army, explains: "The feeling now inside Syria is that those extremists -- they are coming here to help us, OK. And this feeling -- it make this extremist my friend, OK. So it's not enemy now, it's my friend."
Put simply, whoever gets the aid, be it guns, grain or bandages, will use it as they see fit. And if helping their new extremist friends is what it takes to win the fight in the absence of international support, that's what they'll do.

And that's why these Saudi-based Syrians are doing their best to make their aid networks transparent. One Syrian dentist I met, Mohammad Yasser Tabbaa, told me he'd been to Turkey to learn how to set up a charity.
He and his friends put together the Syrian Expat Medical Association, setting it up with a bank account in Paris. He can't take money from Saudis, but he can work with official registered charity collection organizations.
"So whomever comes to us, we refer them to those organizations, those relief groups, and they help us," he explained. How they help is quite simple.Tabbaa and his colleagues visit medical suppliers and nail the best deal for the goods. Then "we present those projects to the local or governmental organization," and the Saudi government group buys the goods, delivering them to activists in Turkey, he said.
By operating within Saudi law today, Tabbaa hopes his medical charity can keep on giving when the time comes to rebuild Syria. He says the group is going to great lengths to make sure it gets what it pays for. "We ask for video tapes, for pictures, for some kind of documentation."
But he says once supplies cross the border, it's hard to maintain transparency. "We care more about our activists than our money. I'm not willing to lose any activists on the ground, but I am willing to lose a little money."
Money isn't all the Saudis seem prepared to give. Tribal and religious ties, Tabbaa says, may inspire some to pay the ultimate price.
What activists in Syria are asking for now is not medical supplies, but doctors, he says. "I tell the young men who volunteer, 'Are you ready not to come back?' It's a life or death decision." Even so, he says he's been told Saudi Arabia will soon start sending medics.
He's still waiting to see them show up. But he doesn't doubt the bonds that shape young men's minds here are strong enough to overcome their fears.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 21 Aug 2012 20:25

The Syrian conflict will continue as long as the supply of crazed Jihadists from across the Muslim world does not run out, which could mean a pretty long time.

Fisk does a reasonable job in this piece, first hand account from Aleppo - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 63515.html

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 22 Aug 2012 20:16

Apologies if already posted

Chemical weapons in Syria are a 'red line': Obama

Russia warns West over Syria after Obama threats

Guru's which among the above 2 things are mere rhetoric? (Though west may not want send boots on ground but they can enforce a no fly zone which would get the job done)

Also since U.S. downplays Syrian offer to discuss Assad’s resignation, can assad even think of alawaite state now??

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 22 Aug 2012 21:04

Russian threats have no substance they are only to extract some concessions from unkil to extract forints own benefit

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Aug 2012 16:05

Rebels open up an offensive in Damascus. Mezzeh air base surrounded.

Syria: US and Turkey meet to hasten Bashar al-Assad's end

Turkish and US officials have begun their first "operational planning" meeting aimed at bringing about the demise of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's embattled regime, as heavy fighting continued in Damascus and Aleppo.

A portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad burns during clashes between rebels and Syrian troops in the city center of Selehattin, near Aleppo Photo: BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images
10:24AM BST 23 Aug 2012
The meeting is expected to coordinate military, intelligence and political responses to the crisis in Syria where a deadly crackdown on peaceful protests that began in March 2011 has according to activists claimed more than 23,000 lives.
The officials are also due to discuss contingency plans in the case of potential threats including a chemical attack by the regime in Damascus which Washington has called a "red line".
Turkish foreign ministry deputy under-secretary Halit Cevik and US ambassador Elisabeth Jones are leading the delegations made up of intelligence agents, military officials and diplomats at the meeting in Ankara, a Turkish foreign ministry source said.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Turkey's foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced their plans for such a mechanism to hasten the end of President Bashar al-Assad's regime on August 11.

The meeting comes after David Cameron and President Barack Obama warned Syria that any movement or usage of its chemical weapons would change their perspective on how to respond to the conflict.
A chemical attack would also trigger a refugee influx to neighbouring countries including Turkey which has already received more than 70,000 Syrians.
On Monday, Mr Davutoglu said Turkey can handle no more than 100,000 Syrian refugees and has proposed setting up a UN buffer zone inside Syria to shelter them.
The exodus of refugees to Turkey has intensified recently as a result of a Syrian army offensive and fighting in the northern city of Aleppo between regime forces and rebels.
The growing flow of refugees has raised fears of a repeat of the 1991 Gulf War, when half a million Iraqi Kurds massed along the common border.
The threat of armed groups including the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and al-Qaeda which could exploit a power vacuum in Syria is also expected to figure high on the agenda of the Ankara meeting.
In Istanbul, Mrs Clinton had said she shared "Turkey's determination that Syria must not become a haven for PKK terorrists whether now or after the departure of the Assad regime".
Source: AFP

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 23 Aug 2012 20:29

Its pretty much clear that the first wave of rebel offensive into Aleppo and Damascus has been pushed back by the Assad regime....its to be seen when will the second wave hit the cities....interestingly the Quds are already leading a non Sunni militia after training them with hardcore urban combat....the rebels will be no match in front of this battle hardened militia....i think the militia will take charge of both the cities freeing up the Syrian Army to block the supply routes from Turkey....Sunnis are in for a strategic defeat if they don't do something radical.....the net result will be that the influence of Iran will only increase in the ME....

Garooda · Post by **Garooda** » 23 Aug 2012 23:26

pentaiah wrote:Russian threats have no substance they are only to extract some concessions from unkil to extract forints own benefit

It would make sense as this was in the news. Not sure if its a credible source.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia ... sCatID=359

The personnel on duty at the base will be moved out of the area if need be, Vice Adm. Viktor Chirkov said during a radio interview.
Such a move, however, would require the direct order of the president, Chirkov added.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 23 Aug 2012 23:37

This article says the following on assad:

The war is costing him about 1 billion euros a month and he has fewer and fewer resources.

Though i am not aware how much an war costs, but 1 billion euros/month seems tooo much. Even if this level of spending is only in recent past not entire period of unrest within syria, does syria really have such huge cash pile??
EIDT: But bottom line is syria is certainly bleeding iran and any of its other benefactors.

On a side note any folks here have any insider info on how much is GCC spending (maybe GCC also would bleed itself out in syria)

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 23 Aug 2012 23:50

When you bleed the Arabs oil will flows easily there by reducing the oil prices and also creates a market for surplus armaments.

War is very profitable thing for many who do not go to war or send their kith and kin.

The additional benefit is that paradise is over worked with multiples of 72

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 24 Aug 2012 09:50

BBC and NY Times Censor Video Showing Syrian Rebels Forcing Prisoner to Become Suicide Bomber - http://www.infowars.com/bbc-censors-vid ... de-bomber/

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 24 Aug 2012 16:29

France considers partial no-fly zone over Syria

In an interview on FRANCE 24, French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the possibility of setting up a partial no-fly zone over Syria deserved to be examined. But he reiterated that France would not enter into a war without a UN mandate.
By FRANCE 24 (text)

French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the possibility of a no-fly zone stretching from the Turkish border to the city of Aleppo deserved to be considered, in an interview Thursday on FRANCE 24. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton raised the idea previously on August 11 in Ankara, Turkey.

“The idea of a no-fly over a particular part of Syria, as suggested by Hillary Clinton, should be examined,” he said.

THE FRANCE 24 INTERVIEW

THE INTERVIEW
New Syria mediator Brahimi hopes for Security Council support
However, he expressed his opposition to establishing such a zone over all of Syria, an act which he said would amount to a declaration of war. “A no-fly zone over all of Syria….could only be set up if there were an international coalition capable of doing it. For the moment, [that coalition] does not exist.”

Le Drian continued, saying that “France is not going to go to war against Syria on its own”, and adding that the Syrian crisis would never be resolved unless President Bashar al-Assad left power.

Asked about the fragmented Syrian opposition, Le Drian struck a reassuring tone. “The opposition is not yet entirely solidified,” he noted, “but we are increasing our efforts to support a robust Syrian opposition that is capable of taking the reins of the country, and, above all, of respecting all Syrian communities.”

The Syrian uprising has resulted in the deaths of some 23,000 people since it began in March 2011, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 27 Aug 2012 22:05

France would recognize Syrian opposition govt: Hollande

Is this the 1st concrete step by west in doing a libya on syria??

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 27 Aug 2012 22:33

French are used government in exile and it's recognized

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 27 Aug 2012 22:52

Mohamed Morsi heads to Iran in new effort to stem Syria violence

Morsi has said he wants to form a Syria contact group made up of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran (most probably just another photo-op session )

Before his Tehran trip, the Egyptian president is due to hold talks in Beijing on Tuesday with the Chinese government.

"Part of the mission is in China, part of the mission is in Russia and part of the mission is in Iran," Morsi's spokesman, Yasser Ali,

It seems morsi wants to show the world (certainly egypt/arab street) that the new pharaoh has arrived.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 27 Aug 2012 23:37

pentaiah wrote:French are used government in exile and it's recognized

French were among the first (if not the 1st) to recognise libyan rebels. They have setup a base in emirates. Now they are saying we will recognise syrian rebels. One feels that france is trying to display "Yes, we (also) can" approach on various global issues. Is france really serious about all this and feel they can really really play a big daddy kinda role?? (Previously when they displayed such attitude under napoleon, everyone ganged together and suppressed france) Or is it just playing to gallery within country/EU, making up for their relative economic decline vis-a-vis germans by showing their nuclear/veto prowess in geopolitical arena (not just germans but this may also include showing a finger to british saying we are not just better than you economically but strategically as well).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Aug 2012 00:09

France has long term connection to Syria. Many of the Syrian elites look up to France for guidance.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Aug 2012 00:22

Its all about the paisa - they want the billions of euros worth of contracts that is waiting for them by taking this stance. Same with their relations with india. Then there is the historical connection too - as Syria was french mandate.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 28 Aug 2012 12:47

Indian, Iran and Afghanistan will have joint talks before NAM summit.
After Oil, we should bring up Syria in discussion with Iran. They have a lot if interest in the Shia ruled Syria.
It would be good to understand the equations better.
What also would be interesting to watch is how the three (Russia, China and Iran) defend Syrian regime from the West.

Regards,
Virendra

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Aug 2012 13:01

WSJ reports that IRGC and Basij have been deployed in Syria to fight to keep the Shi'ite crescent. They are replacing the low level defectors.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 28 Aug 2012 14:59

Unlike Arab spring and Libya, this is a long battle. What makes West hesitate with Syria? What makes Russia and China back Syrian regime so strongly?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 28 Aug 2012 15:09

Yes Why waste time, send in the TOmohawks and enforce No fly zones, why drag this conflict.

But I forgot, the west never attacks a Iraq, Serbia or even Libya preceded with years of santions in order to ensure that weaponary is obsolete that they can score an easy victory.

Even Iran weaponary is in pretty poor shape, they seem ripe for a strike soon

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Aug 2012 15:15

Hesitation is because of Russia and their proximity to the player. Bashar is already very weak as it is and they'll just drag all this out until he falls. Cheaper as well - only syrian blood and gulf money.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Aug 2012 22:43

: France confirms it is working to establish buffer zone within Syria via @Telegraph http://t.co/F1OS6dSQ

Transition to war in place. They are polishing up and making the prep. I know the British are ready in Cyprus. They are trying to scare Bashar. If no movement No fly zone will be in place. Key dates are when UN meets.

Will see what source says

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Aug 2012 22:40

@martinchulov: Inside the city (aleppo) the popular support for FSA is not strong. In countryside much higher. Tough to gauge regime army morale

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 29 Aug 2012 22:52

^^^
control of key nodes has repeatedly allowed powers with nill support in "countryside" to continue to hold onto power. and this is especially true in Syria. the key cities are centers of trade and exchange, especially in Syria. and previous history also shows the same. that is how the Islamics first conquered Syria. and if Assad retains control of major cities, he'll be in the game for a long time.

things don't look too good for FSA. Syria has a peculiarity where conquerors usually are the ones who take over the cities in a blitzkrieg-like movement where the nodes fall rapidly, one after the other. those who attempted but failed to do this, usually failed to take power at the Syrian Center. so, if past history is worth anything, FSA has already started to grind down to halt, if not a retreat, yet.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 01 Sep 2012 11:05

An analysis of Morsi's twists and turns - http://rt.com/news/iran-summit-nuclear-syria-969/

Who is Lakhdar Brahimi, the recently appointed envoy for Syria - http://www.sott.net/articles/show/25052 ... ahimi-Plan

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 02 Sep 2012 06:43

Again the lessons of Libya are already being forgotten.

Remember those million man marches and Gaddafi produced flag waving ceremonies.

The vast majority of the folks will not back either side. The key problem for the regime is that the otherside is constantly being replenished and growing stronger while its own military grows weaker and weaker. Without changing that dynamic the end is guaranteed.

Meanwhile the rebels are now strong enough to start attacking military bases. Primarily to take out air power. Remember that phase of the Libyan civil war. Base after base would get knocked over and the rebels would show up over the next month with more and more organized equipment. It seems like Assads writ has completely collapsed in the East and North, roughly 2/3s of the country by area.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
In a little noted but important development.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=282606

The head of Syria's air force intelligence, Lieutenant Jamil Hassan has been assassinated in his Damascus office by one of his aides, Syrian opposition sources told Al Arabiya on Sunday.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

They are going after the MIG's and Helicopters now.

http://www.examiner.com/article/syrian- ... -his-teeth

Beginning today, in a statement just issued hours ago, the FSA have given a 72-hour advance warning to commercial airlines to suspend flights to Syria before the rebels try to seize civilian airports in Damascus and Aleppo. The FSA says they believe that Syria's civilian airports are being used to support pro-regime military operations.

“The criminal regime of Syria has begun to use civilian airports for take-off and landing of warplanes,” the FSA said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-0 ... ting-rages

Syrian rebels turned their attacks against airbases as they tried to reduce the strength of the government’s air power being deployed against them.

Rebels detained more than 16 members of the Syrian armed forces after storming a building in the city of Bukmal in Deir Ezzour province near Iraq’s border, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said yesterday on its Facebook page. Those captured included officers and regular conscripts, the U.K.-based group said.

Rebels won control of parts of the Abu Zhuhoor military airport in the northern province of Idlib, the Syrian Observatory group said. They also attacked Kwers military airport in Aleppo and destroyed three warplanes, Al Jazeera reported, citing activists.

Syrian forces have used helicopters and jet fighters in their 17-month battle as rebels try to oust President Bashar al- Assad. More than 23,000 people have died since the uprising began in March last year, according to the Observatory.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 02 Sep 2012 08:54

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world ... 658040.htm

Syria battles continue in Damascus, Aleppo on Friday

Fierce battles continued on Friday in hotspots across Syria, most notably in the suburbs of the capital Damascus and the northern province of Aleppo.

Local media said clashes renewed Friday in the Damascus suburbs of Hamouria, Arbeen, Zamalka and Ein Tarma.

Syria's official news agency SANA said army units carried out operations in Hamouria and Arbeen, in which it clashed with armed insurgent groups and inflicted heavy tolls on them.

SANA also said the army units conducted a "qualitative" operation in the eastern countryside of Aleppo, killing many armed men and destroying 10 pickup trucks equipped with automatic machine-guns.

Meanwhile, the opposition's Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the neighborhoods of Bustan al-Qasr, al- Qartaji and Salahuddien in the city of Aleppo were subject to bombardment by government forces, which injured several people.

It said clashes also took place in Aleppo's al-Amriya neighborhood and that a civilian was killed and several others injured by bombardment on al-Bab city in the province.

The Observatory said anti-government protests erupted in several towns of Aleppo, noting that a massive one occurred in the Hanano neighborhood of the province, where protesters called for the downfall of the regime and demonstrated solidarity with the conflict-hit areas.

Other activists also reported that mortar shells slammed the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees in Damascus, adding that two boys were killed.

The Local Coordination Committees, another activists' network, said 53 people had been killed on Friday alone across the country.

Yet, the activists' claim couldn't be verified independently.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 02 Sep 2012 09:15

It seems like Assads writ has completely collapsed in the East and North, roughly 2/3s of the country by area.

actually, that doesn't mean much. it is the Western sector along the coast that is crucial. as long as Assad survives here, he's in the game. the spatial geopolitics of the region is clear enough. continued Alawite/Assad survival on the Coastal sector is enough for him to be a thorn in any Sunni plans for domination. and as long as he can do that, he is practically guaranteed support from Russia and Iran. and perhaps even Germany -- they would find the Alawite stronghold a useful lever on Turkey.

though it might not seem that way, this game is rigged in favor of the ruling regime, quite unlike Libya. Assad just needs to stick on. Russia is sending some signals that they have no intention of letting Assad go. let's watch their moves.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 02 Sep 2012 09:17

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=54091

Cracks emerge in main Syria opposition coalition

A prominent France-based Syrian dissident resigned on Tuesday from the embattled country's main opposition coalition, accusing it of failing to protect the population against "horrific massacres."

"The project did not achieve its objectives, it did not earn the necessary credibility, nor did it maintain the level of confidence that it sought from the Syrian people when it was set up," the Syrian National Council's foreign relations head Bassma Qodmani said in a statement.

Founding SNC member and member of its executive committee, Qodmani pledged she would continue to work from outside the coalition.

"I will devote my time to contributing to the humanitarian effort for the Syrian people, and I will return to my profession as a researcher," Qodmani said by telephone.

"It is not the time to talk about differences, but of course there are disagreements with some members of the council," she said, accusing the council of "playing a very individualistic role."

"The SNC does not work well with other opposition groups," Qodmani added.

The SNC was established a year ago as a coalition of dissidents from across the political spectrum, bringing together independent activists as well as the broad-based Muslim Brotherhood, exiled from Syria since a massive crackdown by President Bashar al-Assad's father Hafez in the 1980s.

Unlike many other opposition groups, the SNC has strong ties with the rebel Free Syrian Army and with several Western governments. It calls for the fall of Assad and has frequently sought international intervention in the Syrian crisis, though the UN Security Council has remained deadlocked in this regard.

The SNC has members both abroad and inside Syria, though most of its non-exiled militants work anonymously.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 02 Sep 2012 18:23

A article about an important player/pawn in west asia
Could a state for Greater Kurdistan be on the horizon?

After the two Syrian Kurdish parties made a deal - sealed by Iraqi Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani - to jointly run northeast Syria, Kurdish parties in Iran are also coming together.(But if iraqi kurds are leading this "bring all kurds together", then would they really go against turkey?)

The Kurdish PYD (Democratic Union Party) President vehemently denies that there was a tacit agreement with the Bashar al-Assad government. But in fact there was; as long as Syrian Kurds don't attack Damascus forces, they can do whatever they want in Western/Syrian Kurdistan, which by now is assuming the contours of a an autonomous region. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, by the way, has already delivered the message to Ankara; even in a post-Assad Syria, this should be seen as a fact on the ground.

A major geopolitical volcano is erupting. Ankara certainly has not analysed the blowback of weaponising Syrian Sunnis just for the weapons to find their way back into Turkey to be used by the PKK against Ankara itself.

each day makes it more likely that an unintended - or rather intended - consequence of this Great Game remix will be the emergence of Greater Kurdistan.

Kurds certainly have chance for a region of their own. If they loose this opportunity, they may have wait for a long time.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 02 Sep 2012 19:21

what is the Kurdish stance toward the Sunni agenda? specifically, the Saudi sponsored Sunni agenda? or even the Turkish version? a lot of depends on them. if the Kurds can be kept away from zealotry of the Sunnis, there could be a paradigm change in the ME.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 02 Sep 2012 19:41

As kurds are not part of GCC backed uprising, chances of gcc's approval for a kurdistan is unlikely. As in iraq, kurdistan can become a reality only if west deems so. The supposedly good relations of Kurds with israel will certainly help in that direction.

As pointed in this below series of articles, they are lobbying with west.
Quest for an Independent (Israel-friendly?) Kurdistan

A Kurdish state in the North will block the spread of Sunni Islam, encouraged by such countries as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On the other hand, it will weaken Iran and its proxy, Hezballah, and will put an end to Turkish, neo-Ottoman ambitions,

Will the west(and israel) buy the above argument or will they buckle under pressure of their regional ummah allies is to be seen.