Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

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nachiket
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by nachiket »

Hari Sud wrote:How could this scenario be awsome. What is their to call it awsome.

Chinese have crossed one hundred mountain miles (not as crow flies) to reach Thimpu/Paro and according to Vivek and they are unchallenged until they reached the row of houses in Thimpu/Paro corridor.

What is he trying to write that Indian Army is bunch of impotents.

The author is working hard to show that Indian Army is still bunch of impotents.

No they are not. They are as brave, capable and equipped as Chinese are. So get out of that defeatist mind set.
Oh come on, you are just trolling now. It is not Vivek's fault that you have forgotten how this scenario began and what led to the present situation on the ground.

In any case you have made your displeasure about how this scenario has been written clear to everyone here umpteen number of times. Why do you continue to read it?
Last edited by nachiket on 01 Nov 2012 23:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

Paro Bhutan ( G Image)

Image



Another look



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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Bala Vignesh »

Vivek mian,
I love the way the scenario is moving.. Its moving and evolving pretty nicely..
Hari Sudji,
I am unable to see where are we being defeatist??? I speak here as a layman, and as far as 'I' know, there is no active deployments in Bhutan except for the elements of ImTrat and if and when a war breaks, I would expect 'my' army to protect 'my' country first instead of spreading itself thin by moving into Bhutan, which is what happened earlier in the scenario. We were preparing for our counter offensive in the sikkim sector when the Chinese opened the Bhutan front to thin us out. And when you have the initiative, you are bound to get away with some victories till the initiative is wrestled from you. And this exactly how Vivek is trying to portray in his scenario.

I humbly request you to point the exact points in the story that you find baseless and defeatist so that I, and hopefully others too, can understand your claims.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by rohitvats »

Vivek,

It would be great if you can create an ORBAT for formations on both side covering the ground as well as air force components.

For example, along with Sikkim, Central Bhutan is most likely to be the irresponsibility of 33 Corps because any advance south from Bhutan will interdict the Siliguri Corridor and isolate Indian defenses to east. Now, 33 Corps has 3 x mountain divisions and I'm sure more will be rushed in to back up the sector further. Even if you're projecting the battle in future, you can add formations likely to be available in the said time period - like the Mountain Strike Corps. Another example is that IA has around 12 odd Rocket Regiments including 3 x Smerch Regiments. Going ahead, formations in east may have more such home grown long range rocket regiments - but we can put an overall number to it.

Something like this will help understand the dynamics in each sector. And it will help gel the two angles in the story - the strategic and tactical level.

JMT and all that.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

Rohitvats,

I think that's an excellent idea. I have this pile of notes I use when I am working on the scenario calculations that needs to be cleaned up and as you say, put into a spreadsheet or something so that it clarifies the ORBAT clearly.

And yes, I did include 33 Corps as the responsible force for Bhutan and Sikkim. The scenario assumes an ongoing offensive in Sikkim and the Chumbi valley (Operation Chimera) that was launched by 33 Corps after the first few days of the war. Additionally, holding action is taking place in AP under IV Corps. The Chinese intended to use Bhutan as a way of opening the flanks (left one for IV Corps forces and right one for 33 Corps) with a slice down the middle against RBA forces. The scenario scenes I am writing on now showcase the battle between Indian and Chinese forces in Bhutan with the idea that fast and mobile expeditionary forces (9TH and 12TH Para Battalions etc) are being used to plug gaps and to deny breakthrough points for the Chinese in Bhutan.

But your point is taken though. I will prepare the ORBAT sheets this weekend.

Thanks!

-Vivek
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by ManuJ »

Just wanted to chime in to say how much I have been and am enjoying Vivek's scenarios.
The blend of strategic and tactical totally works for me.

Vivek, you can never please everyone.
But I would claim that your scenarios are being savored and relished by the majority of BRFites, so don't even think about changing your style.
And please don't take the criticism about the defeatist attitude to heart; in a war with China, India is bound to suffer losses and even a few strategic setbacks.

Just one request: please do maintain the current pace if possible :)
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by anand_sankar »

@Vivek_Ahuja

Don't bother responding to numbskulls. They think this is Rediff.com to troll. I think the mods need to stick the metaphorical foot into some of the serial offenders. Everyone is open to having a healthy argument, but this is simply 'Yo, Mama' stuff.

You are doing awesome. You keep it real and that's what makes it worth reading your writing!
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Ghatotkacha »

For those who are/will be criticizing Vivek's writing. I will say this only once:

"Before criticizing him, write your own damn scenarios which would be more popular/better than what Vivek does (in your own opinion). Otherwise, if you make Vivek uncomfortable with your **text self removed** if he again stops writing, you will have **text self removed**

It require way lot of time and energy thinking and writing these things. If you clearly lack the intelligence to comprehend that and appreciate his work, then kindly **text self removed** move on to another thread at BRF. And, If you have genuine criticism for him, try to PM him first, before posting publicly."

@Vivek,
Don't honor people's trolling with any response. Please ignore them and focus on your scenarios instead.


BTW, I thought this forum was close for 13 years and younger **text self removed***
Last edited by Ghatotkacha on 02 Nov 2012 05:32, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

<Self Deleted>
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 02 Nov 2012 09:27, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Ghatotkacha »

Thanks for clarification Vivek. I removed the warning text from my post.

I will wait for your next post.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by disha »

vivek_ahuja wrote: But for a scenario on BRF, I chose to combine these two options, extending (some may say dragging) the scenario into minute details of battles with characters flung far from each other as part of a general war spread over thousands of kilometers. It was my belief that the general reader at BRF is more capable of grasping the details as well as the strategic implications of smaller actions in the scenario posts. In other words, to generally be able to connect the dots and see the upcoming projections and then leave it up to me to describe those projections and set new data for the reader. Very much a back and forth style mental exercise of a modern war.

So while sometimes the readers may get overwhelmed by the number of things happening simultaneously in a given battle and lose track of the strategic where and why, in general I feel it is a more intellectually stimulating and emotionally satisfying experience.
Sirji, you just explained why your scenarios have a huge fan following here. It is this kind of back and forth (strategic and tactical) and at the same time working through your sand-table exercise objectively irrespective of the outcome is what makes it better.

PS: Commenting a thought/observation. *Even Hari Sudji is your fan (and also a patriot)., but of a different mold (Jat?). He madly wants to bash up the PLA and he knows that Indian Army is no slouch and is different than in 1962 and the PLA is not just going to get mauled, but may not even have an option to do a downhill skiing. I am sure he loved the movie Gadar. :rotfl:

No more posts from me here - looking forward to next post from Vivek.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

DAY 7 + 0910 HRS (L)

AIRSPACE ABOVE SOUTHERN TIBET
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE BHUTAN-TIBET BORDER


The cold air at the entry point of the Tibetan plains beyond the Great Himalayan Range roughly delineated the Bhutanese border with Tibet. On the ground it was currently under Chinese control. In the air, however, control had been wrested from the Chinese air force by the sukhois of Hammer Flight. They could not venture below a few thousand feet AGL though, because that was where the Chinese flak gunners opened up at anything that flew out of desperation. Chances of getting hit were low, but all it took was one unlucky round to mess up your day. Besides, that was the regime of the Jaguars and the Mig-27s…

The battlefield noises coming from all around did little to mask the thunder with which a flight of IAF Su-30s broke over the snowcapped peaks against a clear blue sky. The six fighters of Pounder Flight were line abreast of each other and were devoid of all weaponry except a couple of R-73 missiles each. No. Their main focus today was not aerial dominance; rather, the assurance of one for the future. Each aircraft carried underneath the centerline pylon one large tube shaped missile: the trimmed air-launched Brahmos ALCM.

“Pounder-One to all Pounder elements: Pickle!” the R/T squawked with curtly and chimed off.

One after the other, the six fighters released their heavy cargo and rose into the air slightly as a result of the reduced weight. As the six ALCMs fell clear, dropping a hundred feet before their boosters lit off with a brilliant yellow flame and propelled them beyond the launch aircraft and above for a few seconds before shutting off and ejecting. Within this timeframe very slight compressive clouds formed around the missile bodies indicating sonic speeds before dying off: there was no moisture there to create condensation vapor-clouds. Then a different color flame lit off, with little to no smoke unlike the boosters and accelerated the missiles to incredible speeds, leaving the launch aircraft stationary in relative comparison…

Their job done, the six fighters of Pounder Flight flipped on their sides and broke formation into two rough groups of three and dived back towards the Himalayan peaks to the south. As they egressed, Hammer Flight Su-30s armed to the teeth broke cover above the peaks and slashed above the Tibetan plains providing cover for the returning friendlies. With no trailing smoke column to provide visual cueing, they lost sight of the fast moving missile tubes in a few seconds.

The missiles, however, broke into two groups of three each. One group deviated slightly to the east and the other to the west. The two groups separated quickly and moved away from visual range in short order. But then there were more missiles in the skies around them. Their intended targets, the two surviving S-300 batteries near Shigatse airfield to the west and another sister battery south of Lhasa had seen the incoming threats and engaged.

As the surface to air missiles rose to meet their prey, the Brahmos missiles went into terminal maneuvering mode. This ate up fuel at extraordinary rates and dramatically reduced the overall range of the missile. Which was why Hammer and Pounder Flights were so much more north of their usual BARCAP locations in Bhutan. It was unfortunate for the J-8II Regiment that they had chosen today to launch their attacks against General Potgam’s troops in Bhutan. They had died a quick death as a result of this coincidence. But they were not the only ones to do so that morning…

The terminal maneuvering of the Brahmos missiles at such high speeds caused massive claps of thunder that was heard all over the plains from Shigatse to Lhasa as six Mach-3 missiles turned and weaved to throw off the would be interceptors. Three missiles were knocked out by the S-300s in the few minutes’ worth of time frame afforded by such high speed targets. Two ALCMs from the Lhasa group were knocked out of the sky in bone-jarring thunderclap explosions with Chinese missiles. One more from the Shigatse group was lost as well. There was no time for the Chinese to launch a second volley beyond that.

The two missiles from the Shigatse group hit their targets in quick succession. They exploded within the valley around the airfield and a few hundred feet above the dispersal areas of the S-300 radar and command trailers rather than the missile launchers. The resulting over-pressure wave demolished everything within a half kilometer radius near both locations, killing the launch crews and the precious radar vehicles in split second. The Chinese crews had no time to react.

To the east, the single surviving missile for the Lhasa battery also hit its desired target and took out the command vehicles, similar to the tasking order for the Shigatse missiles. However, since only one missile of this group made it to the target, the Lhasa S-300 radar remained operational, albeit there was no control over its functions. In both locations, massive mushroom shaped dust clouds rose into the air and were easily visible on the Indian satellite that made its BDA sweep twenty minutes later. A tasking order went out to Pounder Flight to prepare an Anti-Radiation Missile strike on the lone surviving S-300 radar while the Chinese commanders figured out the magnitude of the gaping air-defense hole that had just been carved out north of Bhutan…
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

DAY 7 + 0920 HRS (L)

TASHICHHO DZONG
THIMPU
BHUTAN


“Delta-Flight inbound westerly.” The intra-team R/T squawked with Ravi’s voice as Pathanya walked down the stone steps behind the large palace building that formed the Bhutanese Government offices. He was escorted by a group of Bhutanese officials who were walking a few steps behind him. Pathanya had an intimidating appearance to the local Bhutanese with his six foot height and build. It didn’t help for them to see his shoulder slung rifle with grenade launchers and the sunglasses he wore under the white and brown camo hat that all Spear-Team members wore at any given time here. His face was still painted in stripes of white and brown from yesterday and his comms were still in his ear as he walked. To the locals he was something just short of a demon, symbolizing everything that was happening with their small Himalayan Kingdom. And so they had hesitation moving in step with him. But he didn’t care. There was no time for that.

“Give me the optics.” He said to another trooper from his team standing at the base of steps with his rifle slung on his chest as he waited for order. He handed Pathanya his binoculars without uttering a word and went back to scanning the peaks around for suspicious activity.

Pathanya continued walking down the north end of the pad where Ravi was standing with his binoculars out and pointed westwards. The first whipping noises of the helicopters were now reverberating in the valley. As Pathanya brought up his own binoculars to confirm the inbounds, Ravi lowered his and looked over to the group of Bhutanese officials standing in a bunch near the pad, a dozen or so meters away.

“How much did you scare them?” he said with a chuckle.
“Just enough to get them to sign off on using this place as a jump-off point for the defense of this city.” Pathanya said without looking away. Once he was satisfied that the inbounds were indeed helicopters from Paro, he lowered his scopes and waited. The helicopters were still thirty seconds out.

“Just remember that once the Colonel is on the ground, he is in command of this AO. And we act like it. So lose the informality. No more ‘boss’ stuff? I am now ‘Sir’ to all you bozos until we are back out in the bushes somewhere, doing what we do. Get it?” Pathanya said quietly as the Lancer flew overhead and went around the palace buildings, looking for trouble. Just west of the pad, the Mi-17 and one of the two Dhruvs slowed to a hover, allowing the second helicopter to make its approach on to the pad.

“Yes ‘sir’, I got it.” Ravi responded over the intra-team comms.
“Good. Then pass the word along.”

Pathanya replied and then chimed off from his team comms as Ravi walked away to check on the rest of the team. The first helicopter landed and raised a flurry of snow all around. The doors of the helicopter slid open and a small group of Paras in full combat gear jumped out, weapons at the ready. They didn’t exactly depend on Spear-Team’s security perimeter given the handful of men in the team. As their squad NCO began shouting orders to his men, the last man in the helicopter stepped out wearing a white camo uniform complete with the red-beret of the Paras; A man lot older than the rest of the young soldiers leaping off the chopper. Pathanya realized that he was looking at their CO and ran over as the flurry of whipped up snow intensified and the Dhruv leaped off the pad, clearing it for the next helicopter in line to land at the pad. Pathanya shook hands with the Colonel and both men were holding on to their headgear with one hand until they sprinted off the pad and onto the stone steps leading into the white government buildings with red roofs.

“Let me guess, you are Captain Pathanya?” Colonel Misra stated rather than asked.
“Yes sir!”

Misra stopped at the head of the stairs and looked around Thimpu even as the second Dhruv lifted off the pads and the massive bladed Mi-17 touched down a few seconds later, offloading a dozen other Paras and a lot of field equipment and weapons required to secure this building including LMGs and rocket launchers. Pathanya nodded in approval as he watched the equipment coming in. His face said it all to the Colonel: Finally!
“Give me a layout of your unit positions here, Captain.” Misra said.

“Yes sir. I have one three-man OP group in the northern outskirts about three-quarter click north from here that’s been doing spotting for Hotel-Six fire-missions on Chinese positions. I have six men here providing security for this landing zone and I have about three dozen or so RBA soldiers that I have absorbed under my command. Their own commander fell during the shelling at Wang-Chu about six kilometers north from here two days ago. So they fell back here. No heavy weapons and only pouch ammo. I called in a resupply mission and Delta-Flight brought in everything I can give to these guys from the IMTRAT armory at Haa Dzong. Rifles, grenades and several rocket launchers. I have deployed them in a three-hundred meters perimeter around this LZ. The OP team is ordered to fall back here in case the Chinese break through our fire-missions and reach the city.” Pathanya said and the Colonel nodded his approval. He then looked at the group of Bhutanese officials standing away from them and then back at Pathanya:

“Who the hell are these guys?”

Before Pathanya could speak, the leading older official stepped forward and spoke in clear English:
“These guys, as you say, Colonel, are the officials of the government and the people whom we hope you are here to protect. We are here to offer the services of the Royal Guards unit of the RBA to your force. They are our most loyal and well trained soldiers and trained, in fact, by your forces from IMTRAT.”

Pathanya kept his peace but had a small smile that crept up along the corners of his lips. The Colonel was not amused at the rebuttal…
“We shall see. But just so we are clear: Lt-General Potgam is the Commander of all Indian and Bhutanese forces until the end of hostilities as per the treaty signed by your King with the Indian Government yesterday. So I need you to go get your men organized and send their commanding officer to me. In the meantime I am taking control of these buildings as my Battalion staging area. Is that clear?” Misra said and the Bhutanese official nodded and went back to his group. They all left into the building a minute later.

“Sir, I see the 9TH Para is now deploying. What are the orders for me and my team?” Pathanya said to the Colonel as he saw another Mi-17 approaching the pads from the south. This was the direct approach vector now that the first troops were on the ground. This flight in particular was bringing in the men and equipment for the Para forces Battalion HQ. Misra’s radiomen ran up to where they were and began setting up the comms with Warlord-Central.

“Captain, get your men together and reinforce your OP group to the north. Once my infantry companies start arriving, I am going to move them out in detachments to seal all entrances to the city once and for all. 9TH Para is just the tip of the iceberg, son. If the Chinese keep hanging on Bhutan for the rest of the day today, General Potgam will be moving an entire Brigade worth of Paras into Thimpu before the end of the day. Once that happens we will be taking the fight to the battered Chinese Battalions north of here. Get your team ready, Captain. I want them rested and rearmed. We will be dropping you behind enemy lines soon enough. Once there, I want you rampaging through their rear echelon logistics and in general raising all sorts of hell. That will help my boys in shoving my boot down the Chinese throats when the time comes. How do you like that idea, son?” Misra said with a smile.

“Sir, I think that’s the best idea I have heard all morning today.”
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by manish.rastogi »

Vivek saar,
How about some Chinese perspective for a change??
Would like to know what going through their mind!!
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Ghatotkacha »

+1 ^
I like the Chinese perspective and love how Vivek did character development of Chinese leaders. It makes the plot lot more interesting.

Also, comparing Chinese and Indian military expenditure http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... penditures
I think Vivek is just trying to be realistic in showing Chinese a bit stronger than Indian. But, Indians have stronger will and motivation to take back what has been deceptively snatched from them.

-----
In my view, it is better to recognize the fact and make improvements than getting emotional.

My grandfather used to say it was sheer over-confidence of Nehru and company (that Chinese are no match to Indian forces) which caused debacle in 1962.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

Xikaje East

S-300 Missile sites and command and control destroyed by brahmo s
zoomed images are placed iset with arrow pointing to exact sites

There are few other sites around this airport.

Image
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Manish_Sharma »

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... &start=440
Yusuf wrote:Joining in late on this but have some points.

What interesting in the articles by Hari is that it makes a mockery of Indian Air Defense around its air bases. Losing 3 forward airbases is not a good sign. If it was a war with China then we will be routed. The articles show considerable damage to Indian air assets. However, if my knowledge is good about it, Indian Air Force is superior to the Chinese in terms of both Quality of weaponry and also the Training. If our MiG 21s can take out F-15s, I dont see the F-16s of Pakistan which are a generation behind to inflict any damage on our Sukhois. So i cant stomach the heavy losses for our Air Force.

Also, in the article, Hari says India choses not to attack Pakistani airbases citing the losses already inflicted. India should infact go ahead and destroy these Pakistani air bases and much of its remaining combat fleet, along with radar,communication lines etc, since in the article it is mentioned that 30 fighters later attack the Jamnagar Air base. That would not have happened if India had crippled PAF on the first day itself. Establishing air superiority is the first thing any country would want in any war. Establishing complete air superiority would have also cleared the way for the joint Indo Israeli op to take out Pakistani nukes.
Funny how this Hari had painted IAF as so weak in his own scenario. Poster Yusuf had pointed same to him. :-o
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

The Other group of which one struck. taking out S-300 site and Command and Control
Probably east of Airport. lhasa
West of Airport S-300 seems to have survived.

West of Airport
Image

East of Airport
Probably Power plant nearby has also out. (south of Airport)
Image
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

<Repeat Post Deleted>
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

<Repeat Post Deleted>
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 05 Nov 2012 11:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

DAY 7 + 1000 HRS (L)

CHINESE STRATEGIC AIR CENTER
KASHGAR
CHINA


“How do we close this gap?” Lt-General Chen asked Colonel Feng. The latter walked over to the large digital overlay of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) geography. All airbases and ground based air-defense units were highlighted. Next to each airbase marker the list of deployed units at the base were listed in smaller fonts. Feng waved over his adjutant. The latter person walked over crisply.

“Do you have the latest SOFOP?” Feng asked without looking away from the display board. His eyes were fixed on the Lhasa region and Shigatse. He was handed a set of papers by his adjutant and he walked over to the table to pick up his reading spectacles. He then looked back at the papers and frowned. The latest Status-Of-Forces-Report or SOFOP was not good for the Chinese Air Force. The report did not show the losses, just the availability of units and readiness levels.

Somebody’s idea of putting a positive spin on things…Feng thought and it merited a half-amused grunt. For him as Chen’s Operations Officer, and de-facto field-commander, he knew the pre-war force availability of these units. So he merely subtracted the current availability from the pre-war status and got an idea of what their losses were. The positive approach of the report was obviously not meant for him and Chen. He exhaled after going over the numbers and walked back to the board alongside the General.

“Well?” the older man asked.
“Not good. Our pre-war Lanzhou J-11 force is pretty much decimated. 6TH Division only has enough left for defensive patrols protecting our tankers, cruise missile launchers and airborne radars. Their J-7II Regiments are active but don’t have the range or the performance to matter from Tibetan airbases. We could launch them from Hotien, but that airbase has still not recovered from the airstrikes earlier. We have some marginal capability with them if we base them here. I suggest we move the 17TH Air Regiment with their J-7II force to Kashgar immediately.”

“And what good are J-7IIs against Indian Mig-29s and Mirages that are patrolling the skies above the battlefields?” Chen asked the Colonel before facing him. Feng removed his glasses…

“If we cannot strike out at the enemy, at least having that level of force here will force them to think twice before sending Jaguars to take out our operations facility here in Kashgar. We keep the 17TH Air Regiment flying large defensive patrols around the last remaining S-300 batteries near Qara-Tagh La to prevent what happened at Hotien, Shigatse and Lhasa from happening again!” Feng said forcefully. Chen was not affected by the force of the argument, but he ceded the point.
“Very well. Get them over here today itself. What about the 18TH Regiment J-7s?”

“Not many left from the last two days. They have one squadron worth of fighters available. I am going to merge that force within the 17TH and bring them here. The 18TH is basically combat depleted at this point. The 17TH however, is yet to face serious combat. I think it’s about time they took part.”
“Good. Moving on to the east then.” Chen ordered.

“The 33RD Fighter Division is in a similar state. The 98TH Air Regiment of the Division is now on defensive duties north of Lhasa protecting our tankers and the AWACS aircraft with their J-11s. The J-7s of the 97TH Regiment are decimated while fighting the Indians over the eastern border regions yesterday. They held themselves well considering the situation. The Indians had to withdraw an entire Bison force from the east because of the losses they took. So we lost something and so did they. But the 97TH is essentially depleted. 44TH Fighter Division is still active with its J-10s this morning and they are engaged in combat and suffering losses over the Tibetan sector just north of Chumbi. The Indian offensive there is being blunted but at the current loss rate I will be forced to withdraw that unit from combat this evening…”
Chen gave a sharp look to Feng at that last point. It caused Feng to stop mid-sentence.

“We are not withdrawing ANY units from combat at this point! No unit committed to battle today is to be withdrawn! And any commander that refuses to launch strike missions against the enemy will be relieved of command and tried for cowardice.” Feng caught the insinuated threat against him as well in that tirade. He was shocked and surprised. Chen never had that tone of voice with him before. It was perhaps an indicator for the kind of pressure he must be bearing from those in Beijing…
“Sir, may I at least suggest we get Beijing to release more reinforcements from other Military Regions? Our four main Fighter Divisions are all but gone! The remaining regiments are in their death throes this morning. We just lost our most effective air-defense cover over Lhasa and Shigatse! How long will it be before the enemy strikes at our airbase at Shigatse?” Feng pleaded from the General.

“What units do you have in mind?” Chen ceded even as he was fuming.
“For starters, I want the 19TH Fighter Division and its J-11 Regiment-the 55TH- from Jinan region. They will help us replace the losses over the last few days. That force is currently based on defensive duties against a fictitious Japanese or US threat. Neither exists. I want that force moved to the TAR right away for offensive operations.” Feng said as he stared at the massive board now zoomed out to show the whole of China and the outlines of the various military regions in there.

“Beijing will not like it. That region serves as a buffer around the Beijing Military Region. Thinning that out now will not help explain to the party leaders over there that we have things under control.” Chen replied. Feng was getting frustrated now:

“Would they rather like that we lose this war? Because once the Indians establish air dominance over Tibet, and believe me, they are this close…” he brought is left hand thumb and finger close to emphasize the point. “…they will apply more pressure on our land armies. If you think the Army could not punch through under neutral skies above them, wait till you see what happens when they fight it out on the plains of Tibet under enemy controlled skies. I will keep pouring as many of our J-7 units into combat as I can. If not for taking control from the Indians than at least to deny them total control of the air. In the meantime, get me the remaining Regiments from the rest of the mainland that have J-11s and J-10s and bring them here. Nobody is going to attack us from Taiwan, Korea or Japan. And least of all the Americans! The Indians are on their own in this war. Let me bring in the total might of all remaining J-11 units and I can force a breakthrough in the air-war!”

Chen continued to listen but Feng was not sure what all he had heard. When the General did turn away, he had a fatalistic smile on his face.
“We better. Else you and I are going to be relieved of our command. I have already been threatened once this morning and it was not a pleasant affair. And I don’t want to make a habit out of it. Beijing is not willing to lose its entire force structure in the air to try and force a conventional victory anymore. This has gone on too long, Feng. We have failed to provide the victories they wanted and which you and I both knew were impossible without a full commitment from all our Military Regions. This is not a border war anymore. It never was. But I think the folks above our pay grade are finally getting that picture. So here’s the bottom-line, Feng…”

Chen said as he walked over and sat down in his chair near the conference table in the room. He threw his cap across the table as he spoke.
“...I will get you what J-11 units I can get my hands on. But find a way to plug these damn air-defense holes the Indians are making over Tibet and especially near Lhasa. We don’t want the boys over at 2ND Artillery getting spooked about losing their top cover like they did this morning after we lost the S-300 batteries near Shigatse and Lhasa. If we want to force a conventional fight through to the end, we have to ensure the missile units feel they are still protected. When they lose that confidence, they will report the same to Beijing and say that they cannot guarantee the survival of their tactical missile forces in Tibet. They already do feel that way and that’s why the party kiss-asses in Beijing came after me this morning demanding an explanation. I managed to hold them off for now in exchange for the influx of reinforcements. For now. But if this goes on, the Indians will force my hand and that of others who still think we can win this fight through sheer brute force: conventional; but non-nuclear.”

“The Indians are forcing the nuclear option and they don’t know it!” Feng exclaimed in shock. Chen threw up his hands in their air in response:

“Imagine the irony! I had a chance to think about it this morning after I calmed the people in Beijing that the loss of air cover of Lhasa was more perceived than real. I thought to myself: why on earth am I resisting the 2ND Artillery’s plans of unleashing nuclear fire over the Indian subcontinent? The fools in Delhi are the ones killing my pilots across the entire Tibetan border. So maybe I should be supporting the missile strikes rather than resisting it and handing over my precious Fighter Divisions like lambs to the slaughter over Tibet.”

Feng walked over and took his own chair as the gravity of the situation began to sink in. Neither man had slept for more than a day now. And that was beginning to show as well. Tired commanders make mistakes. And both men knew it. Feng sank his face into his two hands and then took some deep breaths. Both men remained in silence and the other half dozen mid-level officers in the room dared not speak. Feng sighed and gained his composure once again. He looked at Chen:
“How long do we have before the 2ND Artillery takes over?”

“Today. That’s it. If we -and I mean both the army commanders and us- are not showing progress on the battlefields by the end of the day today, we are going to be ordered to go into support mode for the missile units. All available air force units are to provide coverage for launch areas in Tibet. I haven’t seen exactly what the missile force commanders have in mind, but I will, later today. The TAR commander for the 2ND Artillery will be meeting with me in a couple of hours. Depending on how this last exertion of conventional units will play out, we will lay out our contingency plans. If the 19TH Division does not deploy here in time, I will be forced to keep it for patrolling missions around 2ND Artillery launch areas.”

Feng was not happy to hear that…
“But that barely gives us enough time to deploy any new fresh units into combat!” Chen checked his watch and nodded.

“Indeed. Better get to it, my friend. Because in a few hours the first missile units will begin to move out of their hiding locations across Tibet”
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 05 Nov 2012 14:21, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Misraji »

^^^ Whoa .... 2nd Artillery getting fidgety.
That raises the stakes.

@Vivek_ahuja:
Damn. You have talent, Sir.
My respect.

--Ashish

PS: Would be fun if we could wrest control and then
declare unilateral ceasefire by end-of-day with the
proclamation of the Dragon having been taught a lesson ... :twisted:
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Chinmayanand »

Do Chinese think that they can use nukes without getting nuked themselves ? When do the Agni IIIs come crawling out in the North-East ?
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

So US Japan SOKO ROC Russia Vietnam are not briefed by Indians. A war , which has potential to go nuclear, would interest US much more than others. Diplomatic and political maneuvering is needed to enhance threat perception to China from other fronts just to keep their units located in other Military regions from moving out in any misadventure.

And Why Feng and his Boss are not talking about Indian Missiles and their implications. Perhaps they are not in the inner circle of such planning.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by parshuram »

Vivek Sir ... With due respect but ... i think aren't Chinese thinking too fast on Nukes ... They don't have married to Pakistan for nothing... How about PAF opening on Western sector or even Chinese Loaning Some of falcons from PAF .. It will be lovely to see F-16's battling MKI's over Chinese Airspace ..

Anyways you are a fabulous writer .. You have my gratitude ...
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

Author Notes:

One thing to remember here is that you as readers are aware of all aspects of the war being fought. Bear in mind that the characters in the scenes (both Chinese and Indian) are not aware of things beyond what they control directly or experience directly. And when that happens there is confusion based on incomplete picture. Human elements come into play like the exhaustion of combat after seven days of intense operations, emotions of losses suffered and battle lost that causes people to make irrational decisions. Hubris from battles won that causes overconfidence in one's own abilities and an underestimation of the enemy's. People also think (in stressful conditions) of events that they can control but not others that they can't (Feng for example being an Air Force Colonel on the front lines is not able to influence decisions up top except through Chen; who is himself unsure of what decisions are being mad behind his back). Incomplete threat perception adds to the mix plus the chaos of combat.

And THEN you add the technical aspects of units involved and geography (timelines being all important here: early morning in one area might be mid morning elsewhere; hence my addition of the 'L' for local timelines where applicable) and so on.

So its more than just a calm and peaceful game of chess where each side knows exactly where the other side's pieces are and what his next moves will be.

Either way. We are approaching Act-III of the scenario from here on.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

parshuram wrote:Vivek Sir ... With due respect but ... i think aren't Chinese thinking too fast on Nukes ... They don't have married to Pakistan for nothing... How about PAF opening on Western sector or even Chinese Loaning Some of falcons from PAF .. It will be lovely to see F-16's battling MKI's over Chinese Airspace ..

Anyways you are a fabulous writer .. You have my gratitude ...
That is already contemplated that PAK would try misadventure on western sector.

Loaning F-16 to China would be a violation of EULA US would not take very kindly to it.

Vivek I fully agree with your Notes.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by anand_sankar »

@Vivek_Ahuja

I had a sinking feeling when the air war was turning in our favour. Hope there is still a twist in the tale ;)

Now in the mind is all about possibilities from your first scenario which you left deliciously poised...

Anyway there is lesson in this for folks who look at two sets of tables with numbers and say they outnumber us and thus would give us a beating. The primary function of the PLA is to protect power of those ruling in Beijing. Everything else is secondary. In any conflict with us, the US or anyone else, assets earmarked for protection of Beijing will remain put there. Even in the worst of times, the power facade in Beijing cannot slip. A slip would be the end, they have learned lessons from their neighbors to the north.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by chaanakya »

Reading with great anticipation. I am sure Arihant and Arimardan would be lurking near Beijing and Shanghai. Although it may not be not in the scope of current Scenario. Their Planners should think of that. Are there any more Cities which could sustain China Morally. If Delhi is gone, Chennai, Bangalore, Trivendram, Mumbai or Kolkata could easily serve the purpose but What about China??
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Manish_Sharma »

Just reposting juicy chinese targets from 'Deterrence thread' :

Image

Just assembled this map to get an idea of targets regarding chipanda!

Let's see if chinese are ready to take 'cobalt-60' & 'gold isotop 197' salted warheads on these. :twisted:
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by RamaY »

Excellent twist Vivek ji.

I completely agree with your 'author's note'.

Just an hour ago I made this post in 'Assembly Elections' thread to show how Individuals, and not states/nations, that make decisions that may result in end of nations.
Often we are told not to focus on individuals but on organizations. While it is true in terms of organization building, when it comes to fighting an opposition it is most rewarding to target key individuals.

Organizations do not have a policy or direction or needs/wants on their own. It is the key individuals of that organization who define those things for the entire organization.

So it is wise to target key individuals of any organization.

People also say countries or organizations DO NOT commit suicide (hence the logic of MAD and deterrence).

But the history is full of examples. Pre WW2 Germany committed a national suicide by pushing for a war. Gorbachev committed a national suicide by his peristroika (leading to end of Soviet Union) and Pakistan committed suicide in 1971 and so on.

What will the D4 do when push comes to shove? Will the sacrifice the party or themselves? Same with the die-nasty.

The magnanimity and statesmanship is required to manage one's own state affairs. Not when dealing with enemy. Our so-called fathers of the nation did exactly the opposite.
We dont know what a small group of Chinese leaders would do in their best interests, that may result in unexpected national suicide.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

DAY 7 + 1220 HRS (L)

AIRSPACE ABOVE MADHYA PRADESH
INDIA


“Are they insane?” the Defense-Minister exclaimed as he heard what the Indian UN Ambassador had to say about the latest rounds of negotiations. The Prime-Minister and the others were still in thought so he continued:
“The whole world can see that they started this war by attacking our capital city and military bases with cruise missiles to try and decapitate us. And they still propagate the idea that somehow we are responsible? How thick can you get?”

“Sometimes it works to your advantage to believe your own lies. It makes you more confident in front of the world.” The Home-Minister said flatly. The Ambassador nodded on the teleconference screen and continued:
“Indeed. And their contention, true or not, is that our support for the Tibetan rebels and their fight against the Chinese in Tibet is what precipitated their response. They claim we had our Special Forces units deployed inside Tibet in assistance of the Tibetans.”

The Prime-Minister finally stepped into the conversation as he looked over to the Defense-Minister and the NSA, sitting side by side: “Wait! Is this true?”
“Does it matter?” the Defense-Minister said with a frown.

“Yes it does! Maybe not to the world and not right now, but to me anyway! I had ordered our military to step back from the aggressive stance on the border when the Tibetans started their revolts. That was a direct order to avoid exactly the war we find ourselves in right now!” the PM shouted.

“And that order is exactly what caused the death of thousands of our soldiers in the last few days and almost cost us this war! We were caught flat footed exactly because our military was forced into that position by your appeasement policies!” the Defense-Minister shouted back even as the others in the room tried to intervene.
“How dare you?! I will not listen to this nonsense! I was not responsible for this war! If your units had not entered inside Tibet to assist the Tibetans then we would not be in this situation right now!” the PM pounded the table. But his Defense-Minister was not intimidated that easily…

“How dare I? May I remind you of the genocidal activities of the Chinese in Tibet in the last twelve months? Or the reasons why the revolt began in the first place? Is this country and government not to stand for anything anymore in the name of peace?! You think the Chinese are our allies and that we should help them crush what last breaths the Tibetans have left? And may I remind you that when they did decide to attack us, the first thing they did was to try and take you, your family and the rest of us in this room out in the first blow? How dare I? How dare you? How dare you submit this nation to the enemy for a flimsy excuse of peace!”

“Gentlemen! Please!” the Home-Minister shouted at the top of his voice and brought the room to a tense silence. The PM was still fuming from where he sat. So was his Defense-Minister.

“Everybody calm down and take a deep breath here. We need to be united if we are going to lead this country out of this war in one piece.” He looked at the PM: “Sir, regardless of what the Tibetans did from our soil to support their revolt and whatever it is that we did to support them is now no longer relevant. That was weeks ago. This war is now. Once that is over we will resolve this issue. For now, the Chinese aggression is what must be controlled. Now where are we on that?” he looked to the Defense-Minister who stopped fuming and took a deep breath as he continued:

“We are finally taking control of the skies above the battlefield across the board. The Indian Air Force has secured most of the skies over southern Tibet and over some Chinese territories south of Kashgar. The Chinese are still launching stand-off cruise missiles at us, but that is the limit of their aerial offensive capabilities at this point. They have lost most of what we think were the four Fighter Divisions that were deployed against us at the start of this war. Their second line fighters are of course being decimated. They may decide to bring in units from the mainland as reinforcements, however.”

“And what are the chances of that happening?” the NSA asked the RAW Director, who was on a conference call from the aircraft.
“Very much possible. By all accounts we have reports that three more Fighter Divisions are showing increased deployment activity this morning. These could be pegged for movement to the southwest to support the TAR region forces. These units are based off the Taiwan and Korean coastal areas. The fact that China is thinning these forces out is surprising to say the least.”

The Defense-Minister leaned back into his chair as he considered that piece of news…
“Indeed. What can we do to ensure that does not happen?” he asked as he rubbed his eyes.

“That’s a good question. I am not sure. They are definitely keeping very strict tabs on the news about the war for their own populace. The average Chinese citizen is still under the impression that the war is going well and that they are on the verge of defeating our forces and ending this war. I suppose if we make some dramatic strides in the war today or at the most tomorrow, we could bring the Chinese back to the negotiating table. In which case they might consider keeping their intact forces from getting mauled so that they can use that as a negotiating buffer.” The Director said.

“I doubt that will happen.” The Defense-Minister said and then continued: “What about land forces?”
“Not much left for them to bring in unless they thin out their forces used to maintain control in other areas. They are not going to be very enthusiastic about that anyway!”
“I agree. They will be forced to fight with what they have got.” The NSA joined in.

“What if we declare that we are willing to negotiate an end to this war?” the PM said and raised a hand to hold off the Defense-Minister’s response to that as he continued: “I know that is not a topic you want to discuss but it’s definitely a topic I want to discuss! If we requested negotiations, would they be willing to talk?” he turned to the UN Ambassador. The latter shook his head in dismissal as he spoke:

“Unlikely until they are in a position of advantage on the battlefields. And based on what I have heard just now, that is not the case. They might talk, but they will start with a long list of conditions designed to give them an advantage in the near future on the military side of things.”

“I agree with that.” The RAW Director intervened and continued: “With the kind of mess the PLA has created for itself in the ground and the air in Tibet, they are probably very annoyed with us right now and they will not allow this war to end until they have reclaimed at least some sense of victory out of all this. Right now, they are fully aware that we control most of the Chumbi valley at this point and their only ground gains have been inside a third country, Bhutan; that they have invaded pre-emptively. So even the idea of an end to hostilities is not something their party leaders can take to the PLA commanders as a workable option. We must bear in mind that the civilian control in China during wartime is purely a façade. The PLA commanders are calling the shots in Beijing these many days into the war. And they are not happy.”

“But surely they know they can’t win now? So what’s the point?” the PM asked incredulously
The Defense-Minister leaned forward from his chair:
“The point is that they are going to up the ante to try and push us into the corner.”

“Nuclear weapons?” the Home-Minister asked.

“Why not? I would be considering it at least if I was in Beijing right now.” The Defense-Minister replied. The PM pointed to him with an angry gesture:
“Yes, I know you would do that quite easily. But I won’t. India will not initiate a nuclear exchange to win a border war!”

“Border war?!” the Defense-Minister grunted in amusement. “What part of this entire mess is a ‘border-war’ to you sir? I don’t know if you have noticed, but we are flying in an airborne command center over Madhya Pradesh because our own capital city is too unsafe for us to operate from there. We have had missile strikes on almost all of our northern states in the last week. And pretty soon we are going to be in a fight for the very survival of this nation. This stopped being a border-war two weeks ago. Expect the Chinese to start flexing their nuclear muscle pretty soon. I would say within the next forty-eight hours.”

“I agree.” The RAW Director confirmed from his end of the phone. The PM leaned forward on the table and rubbed his eyes.
“Oh my god…”

“And what about Pakistan?” the Home-Minister asked the NSA who shook his head.

“Hard to say. They couldn’t intervene on the conventional side of the war without taking the wrath of their economic benefactors in Washington. Besides, their capability to do so was anyway suspect given the chaotic situation with the Taliban in their own country that’s been bogging down large chunks of their conventional forces in the last year. But if this war goes nuclear, expect them to dip their spoon into the soup to try and finish us off once and for all. No matter how thinly spread and combat ineffective their conventional forces are, their nuclear forces are always clean and ready. They won’t stop at using them no matter what Washington might or might not say if they see an opportunity deal the killing blow in any exchange with China.”

“So what you are telling me is that the more we push towards victory, the more the chances of nuclear fallout?” the PM asked. He was now visibly disturbed by where this conversation had headed off into.

“That was always the case, sir. Win big or lose all will be the only options pretty soon.” The NSA replied.
“I agree! And here’s the other thing: if we realize that the nuclear option is being considered by China, then for us we have to assume the gloves are off. So far we have been holding back our naval forces in the Indian Ocean. I want them released immediately to start sinking any and all Chinese merchant shipping and capturing all oil ships they can lay their hands on. We can do this with impunity given that the Chinese can only support a few ships this far away from their mainland. We start squeezing the Chinese hard economically and force them to the negotiating table once they realize their oil supplies are being sunk along with the trade with the western world.”

“I will agree with this sir. You need to give that order right away.” The NSA said as he nodded approvingly to the PM. The latter sighed and ceded. The Defense-Minister instantly leaned forward and grabbed the phone from the table in front of him…

“Get me Admiral Verma at Naval Headquarters.”
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

DAY 7 + 1245 HRS (L)

COMBAT INFORMATION CENTER
INS VIKRAMADITYA
INDIAN OCEAN REGION FIVE HUNDRED KILOMETERS EAST OF SRI-LANKA


“What’s the word?” Rear-Admiral Surakshan asked as he stepped into the large room filled with his operations personnel. The Captain of the Vikramaditya handed him a note:

“From navy HQ via eastern naval command”

Surakshan read through the note quietly until he reached a certain section of the note at which point he started reading it out loud:

'RECIPIENT: CMR. TASK FORCE VICTOR

ALL NAVAL FORCES UNDER TASK-FORCE-VICTOR ARE NOW DIRECTED TO ENGAGE IN UNRESTRICTED WARFARE AGAINST ALL CHINESE NAVAL AND MERCHANT SHIPPING FORCES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN THEATER OF OPERATIONS PURSUANT TO ACHIEVING BLOCKADE OF ESSENTIAL CHINESE ECONOMIC SUPPLIES.
COMMANDER, TASK-FORCE-VICTOR IS ORDERED TO MINIMIZE CIVILIAN CASUALTIES DURING THESE OPERATIONS. NON-COMBATANT NATION SHIPPING IS NOT [RPT.: NOT] TO BE ENGAGED.
TASK-FORCE-X-RAY WILL CONTINUE OPERATIONS AGAINST ANY THREATS BY PAKISTANI SUB-SURFACE FORCES THAT MAY EMANATE IN RESPONSE TO TASK-FORCE-VICTOR OPERATIONS.

GOOD HUNTING AND GIVE THEM HELL.

-ADM. VERMA
COMMANDER, NAVAL OPERATIONS’


Surakshan smiled as he handed the note back to the Captain of the aircraft carrier.

“Looks like the gloves are off, old boy. About damn time too! Let’s get to work.”
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 07 Nov 2012 03:25, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Sanku »

^^^ Sorry if I forgot, why was the IN kept in check so far? Shouldnt we have started that, "early"?
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by vivek_ahuja »

Sanku wrote:^^^ Sorry if I forgot, why was the IN kept in check so far? Shouldnt we have started that, "early"?
Check the posts on the first two days of the scenario. They cover this in detail.

Summary from the past:
They weren't held in check per se. They were involved in numerous operations against Chinese Subs in the Mallacca strait in the first two days of the war. Since then, they were involved in patrolling the Indian Ocean and forcing Chinese shipping to take longer routes to China. Mostly the decision to not go after merchant shipping was political as long as the war was contained between the two military forces. Not anymore.

-Vivek
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 07 Nov 2012 02:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Ghatotkacha »

^^^ Sorry if I forgot, why was the IN kept in check so far? Shouldnt we have started that, "early"?
I guess it was self-restraint put by PM himself. He was under illusion this was small border skirmish and navy need not be involved.

Also, he thought "Neither side will bring ship to a gun fight (read land fight)" :)
Last edited by Ghatotkacha on 07 Nov 2012 01:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by Ghatotkacha »

vivek_ahuja wrote:DAY 7 + 1245 HRS (L)

COMBAT INFORMATION CENTER
INS VIKRAMADITYA
INDIAN OCEAN REGION FIVE HUNDRED KILOMETERS EAST OF SRI-LANKA


“What’s the word?” Rear-Admiral Surakshan asked as he stepped into the large room filled with his operations personnel. The Captain of the Vikramaditya handed him a note:

“From navy HQ via eastern naval command”

Surakshan read through the note quietly until he reached a certain section of the note at which point he started reading it out loud:
“’All Naval Forces under Task-Force-Victor are now directed to engage in unrestricted warfare against all Chinese naval and merchant shipping forces in the Indian Ocean theater of operations pursuant to achieving blockade of essential Chinese economic and war supplies. Commander, Task-Force-Victor is ordered to engage in minimal civilian casualties during these operations as well as non-combatant nation shipping is not to be engaged. Task-Force-X-Ray will continue operations against any threats by Pakistani sub-surface threats that may emanate in response to Task-Force-Victor operations.
Good Hunting and Give them hell.
-Commander, Naval Operations
’ ”

Surakshan smiled as he handed the note back to the Captain of the aircraft carrier.

“Looks like the gloves are off, old boy. About damn time too! Let’s get to work.”
Absolutely Brilliant. I loved the way you put this.
It gave me a chill.
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by rajrishi »

Oh Ho Ho Ho Ho......Here comes the navy....Watch out Dragon.... Awesome stuff Vivek....More More
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by nash »

vivek ji 48 hours are gone ...... waiting for your next strike.. :)
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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Post by rkirankr »

nash wrote:vivek ji 48 hours are gone ...... waiting for your next strike.. :)
He has hit the writer's block I guess
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