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PostPosted: 07 Nov 2012 18:50 
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Shiv

While I agree there should be no dhoti-shivering, there has to be a pragmatic debate about India's short-comings based on 'perceived' MIC capability. And in the case of war, we should err on the side of caution. Chinese may be producing junk - but unless there is a war there is no way of knowing. And we better not know that it is not junk - in a war!

I was not around in 1962, I have only read about it. I am confident of the Indian defense capabilities - but certainly there are short-comings and a few gaping holes. Pointing out these short-comings and accepting them is the first step to building a robust defense force. Accepting the short-falls are not dhoti-shivering. Why this insecurity in jumping at every short-comings pointed out and painting it as dhoti-shivering? All of us know that neither India is a push-over nor is China. The very fact that India has not been attacked is a testimony. But, raise the bar of defense capabilities so high that China will not even be able to wage a photo-shop psywar - that is where we should get to. Every short-coming and lacunae has to be identified, accepted and corrected to make that happen.

If someone has pointed out a non-existing short-comings - it is better to point that out politely and correct the person. I hope this stays a democratic forum with views from everyone than one where one's views are imposed on others. None of us come here to win debate brownie points. JMT.

## I was not allowed to us one word in place of 'short-coming' - had to edit ch*nk/s


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PostPosted: 07 Nov 2012 19:51 
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yantra wrote:
Pointing out these short-comings and accepting them is the first step to building a robust defense force. Accepting the short-falls are not dhoti-shivering. Why this insecurity in jumping at every short-comings pointed out and painting it as dhoti-shivering?


Why these "shortcoming" have to be highlighted in a thread about "Chinese Military" ?? Aren't their enough threads to discuss Indian military shortcomings ??

Why always shortcomings are discussed, does discussing Indian military strengths causes epileptic fits to the "shortcoming highlighting group" ???

If India military is so short of strength why hasn't China attacked us and taken the land that they claim is theirs ???

yantra wrote:
All of us know that neither India is a push-over nor is China.


If "all of us know that India is not a pushover", then why it is said that Indian defence is weak against chinese ??

yantra wrote:
But, raise the bar of defense capabilities so high that China will not even be able to wage a photo-shop psywar - that is where we should get to.


Who has been affected by this photo-shop psywar ?? The "shortcoming highlighting group" or general Indians ??

yantra wrote:
Every short-coming and lacunae has to be identified, accepted and corrected to make that happen.


Is "Chinese Military Watch" thread the official "Indian Military Shortcomings Highlighting" Thread ??

Please care to answer the above questions cause this SDRE is shivering out of fear that Chinese would come and take my home :(( :((


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PostPosted: 07 Nov 2012 20:59 
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Sagar

Would you kindly care to read my post completely and understand the content before you comment? Thanks.

Quote:
Why these "shortcoming" have to be highlighted in a thread about "Chinese Military" ?? Aren't their enough threads to discuss Indian military shortcomings ??


Remember - we are discussing this vis-a-vis Chinese strengths - hence an appropriate forum?

Quote:
Why always shortcomings are discussed, does discussing Indian military strengths causes epileptic fits to the "shortcoming highlighting group" ???


Again, please read my comment fully. " I am confident of the Indian defense capabilities - but certainly there are short-comings and a few gaping holes." If you think all is well with Indian defense versus Chinese, we might as well go home and sleep.

Remember, it is never so and these are not highlighted/discussed versus defense capabilities of Bhutan, SriLanka, Nepal or Bangladesh. Care to think why we bring up Chinese and compare India?

Quote:
If India military is so short of strength why hasn't China attacked us and taken the land that they claim is theirs ???


Again, would you care to read my post? "The very fact that India has not been attacked is a testimony." before you did. Are you criticizing me or repeating me? I am confused.

I believe it is an appropriate thread to discuss Indian capabilities versus Chinese - when a Chinese capability is identified/recognized. If you think all is well and that there is lasting peace because India has the greatest military in the world, we might just pack up this thread and go to sleep.

I believe there is always room for improvements, bettering defenses (and developing offences) - knowing your threats. Knowing threats and preparing for them is not dhoti-shivering - it is a reflection of the confidence and furthering preparedness to face any eventuality.

Even Unkil and Russkies know China is a threat (varied assessments). Is it dhoti-shivering? They recognize it to take appropriate counter-measures/posture change.

It is an ostrich mentality to hide heads under ground and think that all is well in the world. Again, I am not here to win brownie points in a debate (lot of others are good at that) - it is just that India needs to recognize threats, identify gaps and close them. I hope you do not tell me that India has a perfect defense organization against any threat, for now and future - no gaps at all!


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PostPosted: 07 Nov 2012 21:09 
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Going through this thread has become 90% waste of time. Please clear up this discussion of chaddi shiver. Please discuss weapons and strategies.


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PostPosted: 07 Nov 2012 21:18 
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yantra wrote:
Shiv

While I agree there should be no dhoti-shivering, there has to be a pragmatic debate about India's short-comings based on 'perceived' MIC capability. And in the case of war, we should err on the side of caution. Chinese may be producing junk - but unless there is a war there is no way of knowing. And we better not know that it is not junk - in a war!



NOT_ON_THIS_THREAD_PLEASE.

As forum members we are all equal. You really should start a thread for "a pragmatic debate about India's short-comings based on 'perceived' MIC capability"

But let me also predict one thing and I say it as a challenge - not to mock you or anyone specific. Anyone who starts a thread about India's shortcomings will have to have his arguments sorted well and have plenty of them or the new thread will drop out of the first page and then the second page etc due to lack of attention.

That is why the people who want to whine about Indian capabilities have to come and crap on this thread. All they can do is stop discussion about China hardware on this thread and howl and protest. Behavior that reminds me of ARoys and Prafools. They do not have any material for an entire thread. Only a capacity to whine endlessly, and ceaselessly lecture everyone about their pet fears.

I am not going to be kind to what I consider a type of trolling. This thread must be reserved for discussing the Chinese military and Chinese military hardware. Cursing India and talking about its shortcomings must must go on another thread. I promise to keep off if I cannot contribute to that thread, and if it is sensible I will do my best to keep it going sensibly.


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PostPosted: 07 Nov 2012 21:37 
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Well they do say that strong enemies is what keeps a nation strong. Dhoti Shivering has to stop but vigilance should not be let down.


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PostPosted: 07 Nov 2012 21:49 
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Will wrote:
Well they do say that strong enemies is what keeps a nation strong. Dhoti Shivering has to stop but vigilance should not be let down.


Let me not talk about myself, but of pioneers in medicine who figured out the causes and later the treatment of deadly killer diseases that they could themselves have caught. They did not cop out and say "Oh I am worried of what will become of me. I might catch it and die.". They concentrated on the disease, not on their personal worries and anxieties. If we reach any false or accurate conclusions about Chinese military here the discussion can be taken to some other dedicated thread to compare with India. But this thread should be to discuss the Chines military. NOT Indian shortcomings.


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PostPosted: 07 Nov 2012 21:51 
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yantra wrote:
Would you kindly care to read my post completely and understand the content before you comment? Thanks.


Yes I have done that that's why I asked questions.

yantra wrote:
Remember - we are discussing this vis-a-vis Chinese strengths - hence an appropriate forum?


To discuss vis-a-vis, first of all their strengths have to be analysed but how that is possible when every now and then someone comes up painting a doomsday scenario for India ??? Here a photo of some under development chinese defence equipment translates into India already loosing an imaginary war with them.

And does after every third post or so a "we have serious defence shortcomings" sermon necessary ???

yantra wrote:
If you think all is well with Indian defense versus Chinese, we might as well go home and sleep.


Are you looking for a "shortcomings" lecture from me ?? If so I would have to disappoint you, sorry.

yantra wrote:
Remember, it is never so and these are not highlighted/discussed versus defense capabilities of Bhutan, SriLanka, Nepal or Bangladesh. Care to think why we bring up Chinese and compare India?


Yeah, so lets first "discuss" Chinese military then we can "compare" our stance, but where is the discussion happening ?? Care to point that to me.

yantra wrote:
Again, would you care to read my post? "The very fact that India has not been attacked is a testimony." before you did. Are you criticizing me or repeating me? I am confused.


I was also confused after reading your post where you say that India is not a pushover and also in the same breath go ahead and give a shortcoming sermon.

What makes you assume that fellow Indians have to be constantly reminded of the shortcomings of their defence forces ??

Are Chinese forces photoshop perfect ???

yantra wrote:
I believe it is an appropriate thread to discuss Indian capabilities versus Chinese - when a Chinese capability is identified/recognized. If you think all is well and that there is lasting peace because India has the greatest military in the world, we might just pack up this thread and go to sleep.


Where is the Chinese capability that has been identified/recognized ??? Please point out that to me.

I didn't say a word about Indian capabilities and you have made hollow assumptions about it. I only asked questions against your reply so focus on answering them instead of making assumptions which allow you to beat your chest.

yantra wrote:
I believe there is always room for improvements, bettering defenses (and developing offences) - knowing your threats. Knowing threats and preparing for them is not dhoti-shivering - it is a reflection of the confidence and furthering preparedness to face any eventuality.


Never knew this thanks for enlightening. Also please tell me what "threats" are we discussing here ?? Some allegedly 5th gen. prototype jets ???

yantra wrote:
Even Unkil and Russkies know China is a threat (varied assessments). Is it dhoti-shivering? They recognize it to take appropriate counter-measures/posture change.


So what are you saying India isn't doing the needful ???

yantra wrote:
It is an ostrich mentality to hide heads under ground and think that all is well in the world.


Also having a pessimistic mentality does good to whom ???

yantra wrote:
Again, I am not here to win brownie points in a debate (lot of others are good at that) -


Neither am I so why not allow knowledgeable people do the talking instead of derailing the thread now and again ???

yantra wrote:
it is just that India needs to recognize threats, identify gaps and close them.


So you think India is not doing that, only and only you are worried and thinking about it ???

yantra wrote:
I hope you do not tell me that India has a perfect defense organization against any threat, for now and future - no gaps at all!


Again making assumptions out of thin air.


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 09:33 
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I had some thoughts sparked off by a discussion ongoing in another thread and thought it might be best to post them here.

I have assumed for many years, rightly or wrongly, that the lack of development of roads right up to the Chinese border in India is based on the idea that an invading Chinese force cannot use the roads to come swarming into the plains. If they get into the border areas, the terrain will halt them and buy time.

Militarily this sounds like a valid tactic, and I have heard military people tell me this. The counter argument is that lack of border infrastructure contributes to under development on the Indian side of the border. But that is a natural consequence of a defensive posture of a nation not confident of opposing a powerful China.

All seemed OK until the last decade or so when the Chinese have started building roads and railways right up to the border with India. In the media I have heard only paranoia and fear. And on BRF also I have heard the cry that the Chinese can now move heavy equipment right up to the border and that we will be overwhelmed because the Chinese can move much war materiel up to the border for an invasion, and India does not have the infrastructure to move such overwhelming forces.

But there are two sides to the story which makes us (Indians) face a dilemma

1. Yes the Chinese can mount a massive invasion, but they will get bottled up by the lack of roads and poor terrain on the Indian side and can be held at bay and driven out at leisure. We too can use Chinese roads to occupy parts of Chinese held territory in areas where we may have an upper hand while they can't do that to us

2. China is building roads right up to the border not for war materiel, but for development. The Chinese understand that if Indian forces make a breakthrough into China those same Chinese roads can be used by Indian forces to grab Chinese held territory, but Chin is not intending to start a war and its intentions are peaceful. This is what the Chinese are saying.

The dilemma we face is as follows:

1. If the Chinese intend to attack us using their superior border infrastructure we are better off using our underdeveloped terrain to stop their advance and we might be able to use their roads and grab their territory

2. If the Chinese intent is peaceful, then we should really stop worrying about war and build up our infrastructure up to the border for the purpose of development

Now consider this. Suppose the Chinese are peaceful today and wait patiently till we build our border roads and then mount an overwhelming attack. Will we be able to hold back an overwhelming attack against a vastly superior China at all points on our newly developed border? If the Chinese come in and grab a huge chunk of China are we likely to regret the fact that they used our roads, tunnels and bridges to grab our land?

What in your view is the way forward?


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 10:11 
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shiv wrote:
I had some thoughts sparked off by a discussion ongoing in another thread and thought it might be best to post them here.

I have assumed for many years, rightly or wrongly, that the lack of development of roads right up to the Chinese border in India is based on the idea that an invading Chinese force cannot use the roads to come swarming into the plains. If they get into the border areas, the terrain will halt them and buy time.

Militarily this sounds like a valid tactic, and I have heard military people tell me this. The counter argument is that lack of border infrastructure contributes to under development on the Indian side of the border. But that is a natural consequence of a defensive posture of a nation not confident of opposing a powerful China.

All seemed OK until the last decade or so when the Chinese have started building roads and railways right up to the border with India. In the media I have heard only paranoia and fear. And on BRF also I have heard the cry that the Chinese can now move heavy equipment right up to the border and that we will be overwhelmed because the Chinese can move much war materiel up to the border for an invasion, and India does not have the infrastructure to move such overwhelming forces.

But there are two sides to the story which makes us (Indians) face a dilemma

1. Yes the Chinese can mount a massive invasion, but they will get bottled up by the lack of roads and poor terrain on the Indian side and can be held at bay and driven out at leisure. We too can use Chinese roads to occupy parts of Chinese held territory in areas where we may have an upper hand while they can't do that to us

Leads me to think, how will we get to the international border ourselves? If the roads on our side are as bad as reported by multiple independent sources, we would first beef up our own backyard. Only then can we initiate an incisive attack and then sustain it with a trail of reinforcements and supplies.

shiv wrote:
2. China is building roads right up to the border not for war materiel, but for development. The Chinese understand that if Indian forces make a breakthrough into China those same Chinese roads can be used by Indian forces to grab Chinese held territory, but Chin is not intending to start a war and its intentions are peaceful. This is what the Chinese are saying.


i) Not to dhoti shiver, but their intentions might be peaceful today but from their past history intentions could change rapidly. This is after all an opaque nation with no democracy or public discourse for us to gauge their leadership's intentions.
ii) Saying that military capabilities are peaceful doesn't mean much. After all, our Op Smiling Buddha was claimed to be a 'peaceful' test but within days our PM wrote to President Clinton all but saying that the tests were done to deal with China. Even Sher Khan claims the US military is for preserving peace, but since WW-II they've used their military for more offensive operations than any other country in the world.

shiv wrote:
The dilemma we face is as follows:

1. If the Chinese intend to attack us using their superior border infrastructure we are better off using our underdeveloped terrain to stop their advance and we might be able to use their roads and grab their territory

2. If the Chinese intent is peaceful, then we should really stop worrying about war and build up our infrastructure up to the border for the purpose of development

Now consider this. Suppose the Chinese are peaceful today and wait patiently till we build our border roads and then mount an overwhelming attack. Will we be able to hold back an overwhelming attack against a vastly superior China at all points on our newly developed border? If the Chinese come in and grab a huge chunk of China are we likely to regret the fact that they used our roads, tunnels and bridges to grab our land?

What in your view is the way forward?


I think the way forward is to focus on airpower. Creating a network of roads in mountainous regions is a painstaking process. Rudimentary airbases can be constructed faster. The IAF can dent their offensive forces to a large extent and in the minimum prevent a capture of territory. And then to deter PLAAF, have an intense network of SAM coverage.


Last edited by Nikhil T on 08 Nov 2012 10:17, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 10:11 
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shiv ji, I may not be able to do complete justice to your write up but hell something is better then nothing.

The defensive+counter attack tactic #1 that you have spoken of is already qualified by yourself with the words "All seemed OK until the last decade or so when the Chinese have started building roads and railways right up to the border with India."

The trouble starts when one tries to build up a scenario of how mountain fight will unfold. What stops the chinese from mounting a Kargil type operation only multiplied by say 20-30 times. Kargil we spend what 2k Cr INR, I am not sure. And in Kargil we actually had some roads. Now would it be cheaper to build roads esp. lateral connects in the high himalayas. Besides even if we decide to open the money taps would the chinese fold up like pakis.

At times I have suspected that Kargil had a communication dimension to it too. Somebody wanted to communicate something and the Pakis as is their wont were also as much used a _o_d_m.

shiv ji, sometime back there was a tunnelling map floated on the net. And just north of Nepal there was a huge tunnel complex. Lets not bring in Indian efforts if any here at this stage. But to my assessment even now the Chinese do not want to invade India as such. They already know they have the initiative. We can only react and that too at a huge huge cost. They seem to be more interested in positioning, for a very very long term goal (clichéd kya?). But then they waited for millennia to gobble up the Tibeteans and their country. Probably Nepal is the next Tibet. While nobody really believes it so. The concomitant happenings are suggesting that. And just as 62 is a subset of 54-62 period, some period in future could be that again, this time in the context of Nepal or Bhutan.


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 10:20 
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Shiv, the poor infrastructure is an impediment for all purposes. eg defense, offense, civilians etc. ie, it helps no one. Paying such a price, so that a hypothetical Chinese invasion will be delayed as a result of poor infrastructure is foolish.


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 10:30 
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Pratyush wrote:
Shiv, the poor infrastructure is an impediment for all purposes. eg defense, offense, civilians etc. ie, it helps no one. Paying such a price, so that a hypothetical Chinese invasion will be delayed as a result of poor infrastructure is foolish.

That is OK as an opinion and you are not alone. But I have heard exactly the opposite.

In fact let me make the opposite argument for the sake of discussion. Lets say we develop roads and improve the human development of border areas. One can have nothing but praise for such efforts.

But if war were to break out then we have panic and insecurity as the settled people up to the border have to start a mass exodus clogging up roads. Then those same roads can serve as inroads for the Chinese so a short border war can leave us smaller by a few hundreds or thousands of square km.

It is a good tradeoff to develop the border areas with roads and access and encourage settlement and encourage increases in population/town size and yet risk a move by the hitherto untrustworthy Chinese? In fact we might be more likely to sue for peace and make concessions as the border voting blocs would gradually demand less and less military hindrance and less land occupied by the military until we are faced with a sudden military crisis.

On the other side of the coin, would it be better to make overall concessions to the Chinese in the first place for fear of military defeat and then start development? What concessions are to be made?


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 10:38 
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shiv wrote:
If defensive positions are built up in peacetime in the absence of good roads up to the border, an enemy will not be able to use your roads to attack your interior even if he is able to overwhelm your defending forces.

I am not quite content with this assumption saab.
Lets say a Chinese offensive starts using our roads to move deeper into our territory, cant we sap/mine every mile of it making it a highway to hell? Won't our artillery, Aircraft or LACMs find it easier to ambush/attack enemy advancing on a highway in a line i.e a predictable way?


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 11:19 
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shiv ji, the point about the retreating population clogging up the infrastructure is a subsequent/extraneous point. One may as well posit that the money can be better spent on potty seats.

Chinese come in, that means the Indians have arrived at the river. Now the choice is between crossing or not crossing.


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 11:42 
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^^^

The point is, that if, the infrastructure is well developed, then the forces can respond quickly to an emerging crisis situation. At the same time, we can reinforce a position that is in contact with the enemy formation.

Conversely, poor infrastructure and keeping it poor is a signal to the world that we don't really believe the land to be our own and are not confident of holding it, in the face of PLA offensive.


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 16:16 
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^^^
my late father, all his siblings, grandparents had to run from tezpur in 1962 along with other civilians on the road and river to guwahati. grandpa was a state PWD engineer from WW2 era. meantime "chacha nehru" was eating costly biscuits and composing his farewell speech to this NE biraders(should the PLA have going beyond bomdi la).

there shall be no more retreat and no more apologetic hand wringing. have some respect for those who died against some very heavy odds and our own citizens who have held the faith despite decades of neglect.


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 17:32 
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All the more reason why the infra ought to be fixed.


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 18:41 
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shiv wrote:
But if war were to break out then we have panic and insecurity as the settled people up to the border have to start a mass exodus clogging up roads. Then those same roads can serve as inroads for the Chinese so a short border war can leave us smaller by a few hundreds or thousands of square km.


To counter this particular threat we are forming offensive capabilities along the chinese border. So if Chinese TFTA mard makes ingress inside India, says ha ha we have your land, meek SDRE army can also do equal equal and say ha ha look we are inside Tibet and Dalai Lama is about to give his evening speech to Tibetians, come listen to him :mrgreen:

Jokes apart, our developing offensive capability combined with good infrastructure to support the logistical trail to maintain a war nullifies any adventurism by PLA. I think if CCP wants a war with India then they have to be 100% sure of winning it because an equal equal or a loss would surely mean the end of communist rule in China cause they would have to justify a war with India and without winning one they can't sell it to their public. If they end up in an equal equal situation or lose it I don't think the common chinese abdul will take kindly to it, I mean what happens to the smokescreen about Chinese TFTA mard and meek Indians ???


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 18:42 
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koti wrote:
shiv wrote:
If defensive positions are built up in peacetime in the absence of good roads up to the border, an enemy will not be able to use your roads to attack your interior even if he is able to overwhelm your defending forces.

I am not quite content with this assumption saab.
Lets say a Chinese offensive starts using our roads to move deeper into our territory, cant we sap/mine every mile of it making it a highway to hell? Won't our artillery, Aircraft or LACMs find it easier to ambush/attack enemy advancing on a highway in a line i.e a predictable way?


I think that motorized columns can advance 100 km in a day esp if they have air cover, so the only thing would be to do what Pakis did in 1965 - destroy bridges etc on the way.

As I see it - the border is not going to be fixed in a war or held rigidly. Poor positions will require re adjustment so the concept of "defend every inch of territory" goes for a six if hot war starts. IMO the best defence would include the ability to go on the offensive and occupy areas across the border in case of conflict. As someone pointed out air superiority would be a desirable goal and i was going to come to this point later. But I'll mention some thoughts now

So far as I have seen on this thread we have only had "discussions" that inform me that China will throw J10s J 11, J 20 and J 31 at us, backed by short range missiles, S 300 air defences, Huge transports carrying tanks etc on very long runways , railways pouring in men and material.And if that was not enough - they have "megatonne Nukes"

While none of this can be dismissed as untrue I am completely dissatisfied with how easily people are satisfied with such information. No details are demanded of what would be China's capability. It takes only one second for a discussion to start before someone or the other starts quoting theoretical figures of Chinese strength echoing Chinese jingos

No one seems to put in even a minute of thought about the fact that China dos not publish any information about its hardware that is worth talking about. For that reason it is assumed that all planes will carry full loads at full ranges and all men will perform at full capacity at 5000 meter altitudes. Based on these assessments India has already lost because of overwhelming Chinese strength, or India is given a long list of forum recommendations for surviving against China.

I think a little bit more finesse and discrimination is required in assessing the Chinese. I have NEVER seen that on this thread.Yet, Because we are too busy losing the war mentally. My talk of retreat was perfectly on par with this half assessment of China and being unbeatable by India today.


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 19:36 
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China prepares for leadership transition as it battles growing social unrest

Quote:
"If we fail to handle this issue well, it could prove fatal to the party, and even cause the collapse of the party and the fall of the state. We must thus make unremitting efforts to combat corruption."


Bada Hu aur itni choti baat !!!! CCP getting done in by corruption onlee !!!! I'am sulking :((


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PostPosted: 08 Nov 2012 23:49 
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shiv wrote:
1. Yes the Chinese can mount a massive invasion, but they will get bottled up by the lack of roads and poor terrain on the Indian side and can be held at bay and driven out at leisure. We too can use Chinese roads to occupy parts of Chinese held territory in areas where we may have an upper hand while they can't do that to us
2. China is building roads right up to the border not for war materiel, but for development. The Chinese understand that if Indian forces make a breakthrough into China those same Chinese roads can be used by Indian forces to grab Chinese held territory, but Chin is not intending to start a war and its intentions are peaceful. This is what the Chinese are saying.
The dilemma we face is as follows:
1. If the Chinese intend to attack us using their superior border infrastructure we are better off using our underdeveloped terrain to stop their advance and we might be able to use their roads and grab their territory
2. If the Chinese intent is peaceful, then we should really stop worrying about war and build up our infrastructure up to the border for the purpose of development
Now consider this. Suppose the Chinese are peaceful today and wait patiently till we build our border roads and then mount an overwhelming attack. Will we be able to hold back an overwhelming attack against a vastly superior China at all points on our newly developed border? If the Chinese come in and grab a huge chunk of China are we likely to regret the fact that they used our roads, tunnels and bridges to grab our land?
What in your view is the way forward?


Initially, our approach (it so far has been) has to be defensive - no infra build up on our side. This has had downsides - read article by Lt Gen K K Khanna.

Once we build sufficient capabilities (Offensive Mountain Corps with organic heli-support/C-130s, etc), we should rachet up our infrastructure inside our borders - I think we are moving towards that now.

Quote:
Will we be able to hold back an overwhelming attack against a vastly superior China at all points on our newly developed border?

Just a question - how did you arrive at this assessment?


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 03:19 
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How many divisions of the IA are committed for the defense of Bhutan? Is it 1 or 2?


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 04:51 
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China to speed up modernisation of military: Hu
Quote:
China today said it will speed up modernisation of military and build itself into a "maritime power", an announcement which may cause anxiety in India and some other neighbours of the Communist giant.

Invoking Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong's military strategic theories, which were stated to be one of the successes of Chinese revolution, President Hu Jintao told the once-in-a-decade leadership Party Congress here that China will speed up modernisation of its 2.3 million-strong People's Liberation Army (PLA), the world's largest standing army.

"To modernise the national defence and the armed forces we must follow Mao Zedong's military thinking, (his successor) Deng Xiaoping's thinking in enhancing military capabilities," Hu, who will be stepping down as President and General Secretary of the ruling CPC soon, told the party conference.

He said China should implement the military strategy of active defence, expand and intensify military preparedness, and enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military tasks, the most important of which is to win local war in an information age.

Hu also called for more efforts to build China into a maritime power.

"We should enhance our capacity for exploiting marine resources, resolutely safeguard China's maritime rights and interests, and build China into a maritime power," he said.

Besides increasing its defence budget to USD 100 billion this year, China has acquired its first aircraft carrier. It also launched two versions of stealth bombers, becoming the second country to do so after the US.

Its officials also claimed to have developed a whole range of missiles, including a new ICBM which could hit targets 14000 km away, besides a long range carrier killer missile.

The rapid modernisation of Chinese military is taking place in the midst of the US policy of focusing on Asia Pacific by deploying large assets in the region where China is locked in maritime disputes with a host neighbours, including Japan.

In his report to Party Congress, Hu also said China will strive to basically complete military mechanisation and make major progress in full military IT application by 2020.

"We should unswervingly pursue full IT application as the goal in achieving military modernisation and step up this effort," he said at the meet attended by over 2,200 delegates.

China should strengthen the development of new-and- high-technology weapons and equipment, speed up the complete development of modern logistics, train a new type of high-caliber military personnel in large numbers, intensively carry out military training under computerised conditions, and enhance integrated combat capability based on extensive IT application, Hu said.

He said China should implement the military strategy of active defence for the new period, and enhance military strategic guidance as the times so require.

"We should attach great importance to maritime, space and cyberspace security. We should make active planning for the use of military forces in peacetime, expand and intensify military preparedness, and enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military tasks, the most important of which is to win local war in an information age," he said.

He also said the Communist Party should retain total control over the Chinese armed forces.

"We must unwaveringly adhere to the principle of the Party's absolute leadership over the armed forces and continue to educate them in the system of theories of socialism with Chinese characteristics," he said.

Hu emphasised that China pursues a national defence policy that is defensive in nature. "Our endeavours to strengthen national defence aim to safeguard China's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity and ensure its peaceful development."


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 06:06 
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yantra wrote:

Quote:
Will we be able to hold back an overwhelming attack against a vastly superior China at all points on our newly developed border?

Just a question - how did you arrive at this assessment?


The data is there in the sentence itself. China is vastly superior to India on every count.

You see, if you want to get into an argument with me on that point I will wrestle you to the ground and prove to you that China is militarily superior to India on every count and therefore India cannot possibly win any conflict with China. In doing that I will merely be echoing the "discussion" we have had on this thread where it has been impossible for anyone to say that there may be some situations where India has an advantage over China.

Now if you disagree that China is superior to India in all respects and in all areas, please post a few points to say why you think so. At last it would make an entertaining change from the monotony of proof of overwhelming Chinese superiority.


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 06:15 
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Will wrote:
How many divisions of the IA are committed for the defense of Bhutan? Is it 1 or 2?


On paper only one ... Based in rangiya 40km north of guwahati the red horn division. Their job would be take up position on west flank of tawang which has high political importance and unlikely to be abandoned even in heavy combat though i believe the se la pass area some way behind it is more fortified....

Their location is an hour drive to east bhutan border sandrup jhongkar... This unit also routed and bombarded the ulfa camps in south bhutan when those serpents were cleaned up few yrs ago under order from thimphu and dilli operation all-clear


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 06:48 
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shiv wrote:
The data is there in the sentence itself. China is vastly superior to India on every count.

You see, if you want to get into an argument with me on that point I will wrestle you to the ground and prove to you that China is militarily superior to India on every count and therefore India cannot possibly win any conflict with China. In doing that I will merely be echoing the "discussion" we have had on this thread where it has been impossible for anyone to say that there may be some situations where India has an advantage over China.

Now if you disagree that China is superior to India in all respects and in all areas, please post a few points to say why you think so. At last it would make an entertaining change from the monotony of proof of overwhelming Chinese superiority.


I agree with you, Shiv. That is what I said before as well - looks like this forum is too intolerant to accept anyone else's comment but of a few - I just referred to them as India's shortcomings/gaps, if you will. You put it as China is "vastly superior to India on every count" - so admittedly there are gaps and short-comings on the Indian side vis-a-vis China?

I am disappointed at the 'my way or the highway' kind of arguments here - it just does not allow fresh ideas. It only leads to sycophancy as we see on other fronts in India. If some say it, it becomes "Dhoti-Shiver" and downright objectionable, but when you say it, it is infinite wisdom. Why are we intolerant towards others' views here on this forum? Looks like brow-beating and one-up manship is considered fashionable than an open and honest discussion. I admit I am not a know all - well, for that matter, no one here is either. I will not post on this anymore here.

Apologies due if it is OT.


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 06:57 
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yantra wrote:
shiv wrote:
The data is there in the sentence itself. China is vastly superior to India on every count.

You see, if you want to get into an argument with me on that point I will wrestle you to the ground and prove to you that China is militarily superior to India on every count and therefore India cannot possibly win any conflict with China. In doing that I will merely be echoing the "discussion" we have had on this thread where it has been impossible for anyone to say that there may be some situations where India has an advantage over China.

Now if you disagree that China is superior to India in all respects and in all areas, please post a few points to say why you think so. At last it would make an entertaining change from the monotony of proof of overwhelming Chinese superiority.


I agree with you, Shiv. That is what I said before as well - looks like this forum is too intolerant to accept anyone else's comment but of a few - I just referred to them as India's shortcomings/gaps, if you will. You put it as China is "vastly superior to India on every count" - so admittedly there are gaps and short-comings on the Indian side vis-a-vis China?

I am disappointed at the 'my way or the highway' kind of arguments here - it just does not allow fresh ideas. It only leads to sycophancy as we see on other fronts in India. If some say it, it becomes "Dhoti-Shiver" and downright objectionable, but when you say it, it is infinite wisdom. Why are we intolerant towards others' views here on this forum? Looks like brow-beating and one-up manship is considered fashionable than an open and honest discussion. I admit I am not a know all - well, for that matter, no one here is either. I will not post on this anymore here.

Apologies due if it is OT.


It is not OT and I request you not to feel personally targeted even if you have on occasion pointed out areas where China is vastly superior. This thread has a history of cutting down any argument that questions Chines strength. This is a mistake. Note that I have not used the words dhoti shiver" at all in this discussion. This post is the first time I am using that expression. I did not want to insult, but point out that China is cagey and devious. They never show anything that is not positive. If it looks good and if it looks powerful, they show it.

It is up to us to make our own assessments.

In the 1960s and 1970s the west and the USSR sold us a lot of hardware that was considered state of the art or world beating stuff back then. Much of that stuff failed to perform as advertised for us but I grew up in a generation that called Indians as incompetent liars and all foreigners as competent performers. But when we try to develop technology we find that there are hurdles. This does not prove our incmpetence. It only shows how difficult technology is and how even western tech often cannot meet our needs. It is certain that China faces the same issues, but we have no hesitation in declaring China as very competent and efficient when they never display anything negative about themselves.

Under the circumstances I find that we give ourselves no credit and China gets all the praise. So how can we even think of defeating them? We are stuck in this rut.


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 07:48 
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^^ Thanks. My personal opinion is that such a thought process is changing, albeit slowly. As you rightly pointed out a few posts before, the doctors of yore first recognized the existence of a disease/germ, and then set out on a quest to find solutions/cure - at the cost of their lives, many a time.

I think this generation has less of a baggage from 50s/60s, but still the 'white-skin-syndrome' exists - since my grandfather knows best. I do not think the blind 'west is best' is as broad as before - look at failed Chinese products in Indian market (motorcycles, 3 wheelers, batteries), VW, Fiat, Skoda, several TV brands, white-goods and such other 'videsi' products. The exposure to the West has made us realize that India has vast capabilities and is world-class in many areas, and probably close to it in some (Thanks to the likes of Dr.Kalam/Dr.Kota Harinarayan). The self-pride/confidence is growing too.

I have no doubt that Indian 'juggad' can do its job when challenged - Indian ingenuity and creativity is truly admirable. The challenge is to make it consistent, systematically integrated and well-channelized. Lack of monetary resources restricted us so far - looks like not as much anymore.

Yes, Chinese are cagey. To their advantage, they only release pictures of a 'F-35' copy. We do not know if it flies, if it does, for how long/far. Unfortunately, we only get to see their projected positives there, if any, in the form of pictures, and deliberately 'leaked' information. While our DDM highlights failed IJT efforts in the same breath!

Indian objective should be to just put the heads down and build world-beating products - not just bench-mark China there (IGMDP is one example). Only that will send shivers to China and others inimical to India. Not by just competing one-to-one and release our own 'F-35', but by developing technologies that can discover and unveil stealth, e.g., as someone pointed out before in this thread (HUMSA NG comes to mind).

Getting back to the point you raised before, we should just go ahead and build infrastructure on our side of the border anyway. That in itself will send a message to the Chinese of our confidence and capability to mount an offensive. At the least, we can take care of our citizens in peace time and keep them happy - Armstrong Pame's need not struggle to build roads for their welfare :)


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 08:06 
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yantra wrote:

Yes, Chinese are cagey. To their advantage, they only release pictures of a 'F-35' copy. We do not know if it flies, if it does, for how long/far. Unfortunately, we only get to see their projected positives there, if any, in the form of pictures, and deliberately 'leaked' information. While our DDM highlights failed IJT efforts in the same breath!

Indian objective should be ..



If you don't mind I believe we should leave out "Indian objectives" from this thread until we can get a good grasp of real Chinese capability after peeling away their pretence and caginess. Logically we cannot talk of a proper Indian response to a threat if we have no idea of the nature of the threat and assume the worst. The worst is that we will lose so we must prepare for defeat. This is why we simply must leave out Indian responses and goals from this thread and focus on what the Chinese are hiding. And they are hiding a lot.

If you look at any technology development as a mixed bag of successes and failures, the overwhelming portrayal of only successes in the Chinese media indicates a likelihood that there are a lot of shortcomings and failures that are being hidden. Only a discriminating analysis of what is difficult technology will allow us to guess where the Chinese may be stuck and being cagey. But if we automatically assume that we are incompetent and everything is difficult for us and easy for everyone else, then again we cannot possibly reach fair assessments. Unfortunately such assessments of India are not only too common, they fill up this thread.

In terms of technology the failures are more important than the successes. It is the failures that teach you which way you should be going. A long string of successes only is to be viewed with suspicion. Success may come by chance and not teach you where you can fail.


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 08:15 
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yantra wrote:
we should just go ahead and build infrastructure on our side of the border anyway. That in itself will send a message to the Chinese of our confidence and capability to mount an offensive. At the least, we can take care of our citizens in peace time and keep them happy - Armstrong Pame's need not struggle to build roads for their welfare :)


Since we are neither Indian defence planners nor Chinese military planners, we can assess the information we have in a different way. Making our recommendations assumes that we know everything that we do not. We don't even know what we don't know.

For example if you find that India has not developed roads and infrastructure in a particular area should we conclude
a. That Indians are worthless incompetent bums
b. That the Indian military sees a situation where defence would require the area to remain without roads for now

If you find, in another area, that India has developed infrastructure should we conclude
a. That India sees itself in a strong position here and has no problem with such development
b. India is simply posturing and hoping that the Chinese will simply be scared, seeing the development
c. India does not care about what China might do.

How are we to say which one or more of these possibilities is the right one in the absence of information?


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 13:57 
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shiv wrote:
For example if you find that India has not developed roads and infrastructure in a particular area should we conclude
a. That Indians are worthless incompetent bums
b. That the Indian military sees a situation where defence would require the area to remain without roads for now


You might want to add a third option, especially for some sectors in the NE:

c. That the roads and infrastructure cannot be developed except at murderous cost


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 16:54 
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vivek_ahuja wrote:
shiv wrote:
For example if you find that India has not developed roads and infrastructure in a particular area should we conclude
a. That Indians are worthless incompetent bums
b. That the Indian military sees a situation where defence would require the area to remain without roads for now


You might want to add a third option, especially for some sectors in the NE:

c. That the roads and infrastructure cannot be developed except at murderous cost


Seriously I would go for a. This is because work has started in some areas and seriously lagging in timeline. If b, then they wouldn't have started the work at all and saved all the costs. If they are having a rethink and thus stopped work then upfront analysis was not done.

It is stated policy of GoI that border infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.) is being developed for military reasons with secondary benefits of helping the local populace. If stated policy is not being implemented as planned I can only conclude a.


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 21:01 
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shiv wrote:
Since we are neither Indian defence planners nor Chinese military planners, we can assess the information we have in a different way. Making our recommendations assumes that we know everything that we do not. We don't even know what we don't know.

For example if you find that India has not developed roads and infrastructure in a particular area should we conclude
a. That Indians are worthless incompetent bums
b. That the Indian military sees a situation where defence would require the area to remain without roads for now

If you find, in another area, that India has developed infrastructure should we conclude
a. That India sees itself in a strong position here and has no problem with such development
b. India is simply posturing and hoping that the Chinese will simply be scared, seeing the development
c. India does not care about what China might do.

How are we to say which one or more of these possibilities is the right one in the absence of information?

I see it as a combination of
Quote:
b. That the Indian military sees a situation where defence would require the area to remain without roads for now
AND but more importantly -
Quote:
a. That India sees itself in a strong position here and has no problem with such development
, since the Army has for the last few years been pushing for roads and infrastructure along the border, and having read somewhere that the RM had 'pulled up' BRO for falling short of targets. Please take note that there now ARE 'targets' and identified areas for infra development - while there was none before.

I am not a big Zee news fan - please pardon me for 'only' Zee links - just quoting RM/DRM on the Infra policy on borders as part of the LTPP. It gives me the impression that India is slowly shifting to a firm offensive posture along the Chinese Border.

A Zee News Article on May 2nd 2012:
Quote:
A lot of emphasis is being given to speedy construction of quality roads along the borders with China and Pakistan, the Rajya Sabha was informed on Wednesday.

Of the 61 roads on borders with China, work on 16 roads spanning 58 km has been completed by the Border Roads Organisation while work was in progress on 43 other roads, Minister of State for Defence M M Pallam Raju said during Question Hour.

"We are taking all measures to speed up construction of roads," he said, pointing that the terrain and weather on Indian side was much more difficult than those on the Chinese side which has seen several roads being constructed during recent times.


"India to bolster infrastructure along borders"
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/in ... 70325.html

Important roads to be developed
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/im ... 66664.html

Quote:
In a written reply to the House, Defence Minister A K Antony said, "Government has identified strategically important border roads for development along the India-China border. As per the Long Term Perspective Plan, other roads have also been identified for development there."
He said the government is aware of the need for infrastructure development in areas along India-China border and, "steps as required have been initiated to undertake infrastructure development in consonance without threat perception."

On whether government proposes to increase the strength of force deployed there, Antony said, "Military capacity enhancement and modernisation of armed force is a dynamic process which takes into account the cumulative security challenges envisaged by the nation."


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 21:24 
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Not sure if this was covered before.

Quote:
The Chinese J-20 FGFA, by most expert opinion, is dead in water – without an engine, AESA radar, technologies that the Chinese lack.


http://rt.com/news/fifth-generation-j-2 ... ngine-261/

Quote:
China is making an attempt to catch up with world leaders and develop hi-tech vehicles in the absence of crucial military know-how and technology, like engines for ultrasonic cruise flights and active phased array antennas.
“As of now, it is too early to say that China is capable of creating a fifth-generation jet from start to finish,” told RT Vasily Kashin from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies....
As of now, the J-20 flies with two Russian AL-31F jet engines it borrowed from the Russian Su-27 fighter jet that entered Chinese service in the mid-1980s.
China also tried to put engines of their own on a second test J-20 vehicle, but the copycat of the Soviet engine AL-31F made by China is not in the same league as the Russian analogue for reliability and durability....


They have been attempting to buy Su-35 engines through aircraft purchase, which, as of last I heard, has not taken off.


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 21:40 
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So where has all those money gone that they put in so called research and development to develop a world class engine


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 23:19 
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krishnan wrote:
So where has all those money gone that they put in so called research and development to develop a world class engine

There is only one sure way of converting money into an engine and that is to buy from established players.

Anything else remains an uncertain exercise fraught with hurdles.

The problem is that if you spend X time developing say a particular blade alloy and run it. Suppose it runs 10 hours and fails. You scrap it and try a new formula. The new formula runs 50 hours. You think you have hit the jackpot and then at 52 hours it fails. Trial 3 gets a blade that fails. Trial 4 gets an alloy that lasts 100 hours and you say "heck we Chinese are bold. Put it in a plane and fly it". Fine it flies but conks out at 250 hours or at high RPM. Then what?

Then you look at the calendar and find that 5-10 years have gone and several million spent. Apply the same issues to several other components. You get an engine that looks like its great but you find that the damn thing chokes up and stops if the plane tries to do a loop. Then what?

Technology is knowing what will fail. Knowing what you must not do and which direction you need to head. The existing engine manufacturers have done all that 50 years ago. Try throwing money at a calendar. It won't move you back to last year. The Chinese will never ever talk about failures because they are a people who put very great emphasis on not losing face. And in communist China a functionary who brings shame by admitting a mistake may have his balls converted to noodle fry.


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 Post subject: From Nightwatch
PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 23:40 
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Nightwatch's take on Chinese military matters

NightWatch-For the night of 8 November 2012 wrote:
As for military affairs, Hu promised that China would complete military mechanization and "full IT application" in its armed forces by 2020. He described the military's most important task as its ability "to win local wars in an information age".

Comment: This statement means that China's leaders do not envision their armed forces as capable of winning a general war with the United States or a coalition of its neighbors. This self-portrait might be deceptive, but it apparently is the genuine and current formula for force development. It implies that cyber warfare is intrinsic to winning.


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PostPosted: 10 Nov 2012 09:18 
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shiv wrote:
krishnan wrote:
So where has all those money gone that they put in so called research and development to develop a world class engine

There is only one sure way of converting money into an engine and that is to buy from established players.

Anything else remains an uncertain exercise fraught with hurdles.

The problem is that if you spend X time developing say a particular blade alloy and run it. Suppose it runs 10 hours and fails. You scrap it and try a new formula. The new formula runs 50 hours. You think you have hit the jackpot and then at 52 hours it fails. Trial 3 gets a blade that fails. Trial 4 gets an alloy that lasts 100 hours and you say "heck we Chinese are bold. Put it in a plane and fly it". Fine it flies but conks out at 250 hours or at high RPM. Then what?

Then you look at the calendar and find that 5-10 years have gone and several million spent. Apply the same issues to several other components. You get an engine that looks like its great but you find that the damn thing chokes up and stops if the plane tries to do a loop. Then what?

Technology is knowing what will fail. Knowing what you must not do and which direction you need to head. The existing engine manufacturers have done all that 50 years ago. Try throwing money at a calendar. It won't move you back to last year. The Chinese will never ever talk about failures because they are a people who put very great emphasis on not losing face. And in communist China a functionary who brings shame by admitting a mistake may have his balls converted to noodle fry.


Great post Shivji. Money can only do so much.


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PostPosted: 10 Nov 2012 11:03 
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^^^

But money with a combination of persistence and mixing and matching may just result in finding out the winning formula. That gives an injune life of 10000+ hrs for both civil and military applications.

So the PRC may just get to a winning combination.


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