Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

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Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by Will »

All dhoti shivering with regards to China in here please!! Kindly leave the China Military Watch thread for real military matters :twisted:
Last edited by Will on 11 Nov 2012 14:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon- Dhoti Shivering Thre

Post by shiv »

I would edit the title and remove the Dhoti shivering bit.

But I have always advised that any new venture must have a plan A - of what is sought to be achieved and plan B if it fails.

We must always have a plan B for war with China. Assume we will get our asses whupped and prepare for defeat. How to delay or minimize the losses.

You see once we prepare for the worst, anything else is bonus. That way, once plan B is pukka - we can safely and reluctantly allow the blasphemous idea that we might not get our backsides handed to us and might actually win. And who knows, we might even rip em a new one - sorry that is OT here.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by Will »

Oh Ok. Edited the Dhoti Shivering bit :(
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by morem »

what is with the 50 cent guys , get a bonus if they provoke a flurry of reactions , is it ?
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by Prem »

Will wrote:Oh Ok. Edited the Dhoti Shivering bit :(
What is Dhoti Shiv Ring ? Some kind of Saturn's rings or wrinkles caused by old age!!

From personal interaction experience , i can say that they act cocky and brazen to to hide their complex of intellectual inferiority and fear of competition. They go for killing than facing competition which for sure they see as defeat. Denying strategic independence alone will keep them in Bhambalbhoosa.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by AbhiJ »

The only one who Dhoti Shivers is Congress thugs.

Vajpayee went to China - the first foreign minister post 1962 in 1977.

During NDA, Sikkim was recognized for re-recognizing Tibet as part of Panda.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

Being scared is the first and most important step in being prepared. There is no shame in shitting bricks about China. No shame in admitting fear and anxiety. But fear and anxiety of China should not be considered a monopoly of intelligent people who claim that only they are right in talking about how powerful China is and that anyone else who talks of Chinese weaknesses or Indian strengths is a blind or blinkered person who is unwilling to face facts.

Unfortunately the China mil thread was filled up with Indians arguing that we should be scared of China and not mocking China. Now here is an entire thread to talk about why we should be scared of China and how we can prepare ourselves against all those scary Chinese things.

I request that people contribute usefully to this thread on the above topic. I had already predicted that this thread will go nowhere if all the people who demand that Indians should not criticise China simply do that on the China military thread as a form of trolling because of all the negative feelings and grouses they have about an incapable and incompetent India full of useless Indians. They seem upset when an Indian seems to be enjoying himself criticizing China and instantly want to remind him of how stupid and weak his own country, India, is. This thread is for that purpose. No Indian shall be allowed to be critical of anything but India on this thread. If you need to be critical of China go dump your poo in the China mil thread. Not here.

Well this is the place to express all those feelings and no one will be questioned or criticised.
Last edited by shiv on 12 Nov 2012 06:22, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

Here are some useful points to kick-start discussion
pentaiah wrote:Lets be gracious honest and realistic.
PRC is surging ahead
Till 1970 their S&T and products and engineering was at least two decades behind India.

Now in the very same fields they are ahead by attest decade and half over all segments of engineering science technology manufacturing and ECONOMY. In terms of getting to their goals as a nation they are 100% more committed and likely to achieve.

Having said that

I don't care if we can manufacture a stealth plane ship or not

Just make 100% Indian made propeller craft
Propeller engines for UAVs
Make 100 % indigenous tanks rifles ammunition body armor
If possible body bags instead of importing like we did during Kargil war at a huge cost

On the way a simple howitzer, and multi barrel rocket launchers even if they are statins organs of WWIi
Yeah I know Pinaka I want them firing on all barrels not 1 in 5

We are in snooze and loot mode while the world is marching ahead.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

In a unique and unparalleled international feat, here is a list of engines that HAL has cloned under licence for 50 years without managing to make a single one indigenously.
http://hal-india.com/Enginebangalore/products.asp
http://hal-india.com/EngineKoraput/products.asp
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by darshhan »

Shiv ji, I am unable to sleep these days(nights). Whenever I try to sleep I always have these nightmares of a chinese invasion complete with dragons spewing fire. I mean there is 1.5 billion of them and China is so big and large. It has so many factories and even more skyscrapers. I am very afraid.What should I do? Please prescribe me some high quality sleeping pills.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by darshhan »

^^ Oh man, now loose motions too.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by kit »

ah this looks like a therapy session page ..:) ... catharsis
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by member_23370 »

LOL..I was wondering when we would be able to laugh at the chinese. Good thread.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by Muppalla »

I am working 70 to 80 hours a week due to fear from Dragons. I did not even visit BRF for over two weeks (a record of sorts in over a decade). All this is due to stealt fears from dragons.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by RamaY »

Dear doctel,

To stop thinking about Chinese supel dupel fightels I took couple of sleeping pills and fell asleep. Then the TSP nuke blackmail started to haunt me in my drimms.

Since I took pills, I cannot wake up. What should I do?
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by disha »

Dear Dogcutter and other Lal mullahs,

I saw this thread first and was happy, now the truth has been accepted that the desis will be defeated by the dragons with their baki kutta (also called the pure dog) in tow. It was blissful. Then I read Vivekji ahujaji's scenario and also saw all the dhaaga on the bakis. Dear Dogcutter with his incisive commentary in the terrorist dhaaga has cut the baki kutta in half and also vivekji ahujaji is planning to drown the Chinese 6th fleet with nodong missiles.

My nightmares have returned. What to do? Will we not be defeated?

The jingoes at BR are silly, they need to wake up and smell the toffee, first the Chinese unleash the box cutters via their dawgs and then unleash the fat box called J20 and now unleash another plane with not one but two engines so that it can go farther and faster. Wait till they introduce their J72. All the past failures on J20 and J35 will help them unleash their J72 and then the red peace will surely come.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by Pratyush »

^^^

India will loose only, Millions of Indians have no toilets. How can a nation have as few toiles as India win against the super power like China. :((

Not to mention, the billions of Shudras being oppressed by the Brahmins. :((

We will loose onlee :((
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by rajanb »

darshhan wrote:^^ Oh man, now loose motions too.
Are we going to lose only motions? :((

We will loose everything. Hangs on to his wig. What with their Joker XX (j20, j31, j42, j53) and counting. Not to mention their Nodongs, dingdongs and pingpongs. The IVC, SVC and GVC will be obliterated. :-?

Our leadership is useless. Wimpy and only interested in stocking up like wimpy...hold on...on money burgers.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

Seriously folks. This is a deadly serious thread folks and you guys are not taking its seriousness seriously. I'm serious.

War is a chancy thing and China surpasses India in any parameter that you may care to name. Was this not made repeatedly clear in the Chin military thread.

Oh yes, I do understand that we may be required to fight China. We must not underestimate our adversaries. Discussing modalities and scenarios of defeat can only show how well we recognize the seriousness of the Chinese threat and by what extent China exceeds our capabilities in every sphere. Now where are all the people who were saying that? I agree with them. I only disagreed with the thread in which those warnings about Indian weaknesses and probability of certain defeat were being posted. This is where we discuss Indian weaknesses vis a vis China

I will post statistics to show our weaknesses in a separate post.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by PratikDas »

So that Indian manufacturing industries are not shut down in one sudden action after The Defeat by the Dragon, an outcome of the defeat that is sure to cause untold manufacturing job losses and sure to serve as an aftershock to the Indian economy after the defeat itself, we must prepare by steadily shutting down Indian manufacturing pre-emptively. In this manner, manufacturing sector workers can be steadily retrained in an orderly fashion and transitioned into manning and womaning roadside vendor stalls selling high quality Dragonware. To set targets for good project management, we must shut down all Indian manufacturing in an orderly fashion by 2020.

This will bring peace to India and prosperity to the households of the roadside vendors.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by Luxtor »

Couldn't this thread be entitled better? It implies that we're giving up and expect to be defeated. More appropriate titled would have been "Preparing for war with China" Inside the thread we could be discussing how prepared or unprepared we are to face China in a limited or all out war. I think currently we are not in a position to inflict unacceptable damage to China in the event of a war. Puki's have achieved this deterrent (nukes/missiles) against us thanks to the Chinese. I think the only thing that's keeping the Chinese from attacking us is that they have an image to uphold to the world which is that they are a global and responsible power and also their economic interest in continuing to attract global investments. If it isn't for the economic factor they would have attacked us already since the 1962 war. Despite the size and strength of their economy they're still vulnerable economically. They feel that economically "they're not there yet". So they don't want to do anything to jeopardize their economic growth. Once they have a well established, resilient economy like the U.S., despite it's current economic problems, they may be prone to militarily probe us and look for an excuse to launch an attack. Never trust the Chinese, never. Never forget "Hindi Chinni bai bai" betrayal of 1962.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

Luxtor wrote:Couldn't this thread be entitled better? It implies that we're giving up and expect to be defeated. More appropriate titled would have been "Preparing for war with China" Inside the thread we could be discussing how prepared or unprepared we are to face China in a limited or all out war. I think currently we are not in a position to inflict unacceptable damage to China in the event of a war. Puki's have achieved this deterrent (nukes/missiles) against us thanks to the Chinese. .
Thank you for injecting some seriousness. I have no specific dispute against your views other than the renaming of thread part. In my view too many people think that Indians are being cocky and overoptimistic about China. That view is removed in the title itself. Preparing for defeat is only the ultimate end of the spectrum of preparation required for anything short of victory. After all it would be inappropriate to call the thread "Preparing for general defeat but some occasional victories". I can see only victory on the one hand and defeat on the other.

One could call it "Preparing for victory against the Dragon" but since I agree 100% with what you said, namely:
I think currently we are not in a position to inflict unacceptable damage to China in the event of a war.
a change of title is unnecessary
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

Here is something to discuss:
dhiraj wrote:@year 2022 - Assumption : China has reasonably developed J 20 and J 31 and inducted a few squadrons (they are good in manufacturing and inducting in large numbers ) and provided 1 squadron each of J 20 and J 31 to Pakistan.

Now how is it going to affect the deep strike capability of Rafale and Sukhoi of the IAF. Will the scenario be something like the PAK FA will have the responsibility to clear the air space while the Rafale and Sukhoi follow them to perform the deep strike.

If that is the case then the availability of PAK FA by 2020 with all the features that have been promised in it becomes much more critical.
Another thing that needs to be analysed will be the conflict between two stealth fighters against each other, what will be the scenarios , how does one realign there operational tactics in both offensive / defensive situation and finally how does stealth and non-stealth fighters combine there capabilities to achieve optimum result.

Notwithstanding the engine development issues that China may be facing ( anyway we should not relax with this news when suddenly one day they showcase a brand new engine meeting there requirement and again we start playing catch up) , i think that with the speed with which they have shown the J 20 and J 31 to the world , and with the kind of secrecy that they will maintain about their capability , having 300 such fighters will definitely have a major psychological effect around the region and may even lead to a more aggresive China.

Any thoughts ?
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

dhiraj wrote:
shiv wrote:Good hypothetical scenario. I have cross posted it in an appropriate thread for discussion. On this thread this is off topic.
No Issues with posting in an appropriate thread, but only problem is with the word "hypothetical".
My understanding is that this scenario is very much feasible in the foreseeable future (hypothetical only if either we don;t get PAK FA(serious issue ) or China is not able to deploy J 20 / 31 (good for us))
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by yantra »

I am assuming any war with China will be a limited 2-3 week engagement. I do not think that neither China or India can fight an open-ended conventional all-out war. I am also assuming there would be no nuclear exchange - it is anyone's guess there. China will not be able to deploy all its forces as it will have to maintain a min deterrent posture along its East - particularly against Vietnam, Japan and SoKo.

As it stands to-day, in terms of pure conventional capability, for a 3-4 week war, here is the big picture:

India’s active military personnel around 1,325,000+add another 1,000,000 in paramilitary personnel (China - 2,255,000). When it comes to the ground forces is where I need others to chip in here. I am sure, we lag behind in the arty pieces, but Brahmos and Pinaka give India a qualitative edge. Indian MRLS+MBTs+SPs+AIFVs+APCs+Vintage Tanks+others put together is around 8000 pieces. Indian army perhaps is the most battle-hardened Army in the world today - several low intensity conflicts, IPKF, Kargil, etc. Here, India retains a serious edge in terms of the quality of its personnel and the ability to 'hit the ground running'.

Please fill in on deployed Agnis+Prithvis+ etc. I have a strong feeling that Chinese missile capability in terms of numbers is far superior to ours as it stands to-day - this is what probably makes an imbalance in favor of China.

?? Add nascent Indian BMD to the mix, along with better quality and high precision missiles :)

IAF has 3382 aircraft which includes 1335 combat aircraft operating from possible 334+ bases (China’s PLA Air Force has 9,218 aircraft of which about 2300 are combat aircraft, operating from its possible 489+ air bases). Indian Air Force, has Mirage 2000s, Jaguars and Russian Su-30 MKI .The air superiority in China’s PLAAF is maintained by its fleet of Russian Su-30 MK and indigenously built J-10/11/B fighters. On the Airforce balance, India probably has an edge due to qualitatively better aircraft and 'professional' personnel.

Indian Navy - world’s 8th largest navy with a with a fleet of 145 vessels consisting of and Aircraft Carrier, missile-capable warships, advanced submarines, the latest naval aircrafts and an aircraft carrier in its inventory. (China’s PLA Navy with its fleet of 284 vessels - 1 Aircraft Carrier not yet deployed). Indian Navy certainly has a qualitative edge due to its operational and deployment experience and can choke off key trade routes to China in a limited 3-4 week conflict.

Please chip in here and lets analyze this further.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by member_23677 »

Ahh... Another stupid thread with no purpose or meaning another assumption of defeat....don't know if I should laugh or cry at the stupid name of this thread... We might as well name this the Pakistani defence forum (pretending to be Indians for the last decade or so )
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by PratikDas »

Come on, Bhagat ji. The majority of posts have been sarcastic so far, poking fun at the general timidity amongst many members. Some serious creeping in lately.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by member_23677 »

PratikDas wrote:Come on, Bhagat ji. The majority of posts have been sarcastic so far, poking fun at the general timidity amongst many members. Some serious creeping in lately.
Is it really worth wasting time on stupid threads like these when we can debate/ discuss some actual issues?
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by PratikDas »

I think this thread addresses a more basic problem than China's military prowess, which is well captured by various 50 centers in the China Military Watch thread who somehow consider it necessary to come to an Indian forum and post their latest exploits. Good chai biskoot material, that. I've never considered it necessary to go to a Pakistani or Bangladeshi forum and gloat over the strengths of the Prahaar, let alone the Agni V. Why give them even more opportunities to discuss counter-measures?

The basic problem is that many Indians have already assumed an Indian defeat in The Next Indo-China War. They implicitly assume, perhaps evidently, that India has insufficient military deterrence to prevent a conflict. They also assume that we are insufficient in our ability to defend territory once the war begins. Since we are simultaneously so sure and so hopeless, we have two choices - either prepare for defeat or prepare to defend. This thread indirectly encourages the latter, but perhaps the subtlety is lost.

For example, any country like India that is actively researching ABM technologies like the PAD and AAD is also getting better at making missiles which are better at evading ABM. Any country would have to be too stupid not to. The Trishul might have been a disappointment but I haven't seen any signs of stupidity in the Indian missile program.

Slightly OT, if one reads the article below it should be clear that had the very numbers of Chinese soldiers scared the Indian soldiers, the monumental achievement of holding back the large Chinese contingent would've become impossible.

Nobody believed we had killed so many Chinese at Rezang La. Our commander called me crazy and warned that I could be court-martialled
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

PratikDas wrote: well captured by various 50 centers in the China Military Watch thread who somehow consider it necessary to come to an Indian forum and post their latest exploits. Good chai biskoot material, that. I've never considered it necessary to go to a Pakistani or Bangladeshi forum and gloat over the strengths of the Prahaar, let alone the Agni V. Why give them even more opportunities to discuss counter-measures?

The basic problem is that many Indians have already assumed an Indian defeat in The Next Indo-China War.
This thread need not be wasted and your point about the way in which 50 centers and the Indian defeat mongers interact is insightful.

The reason why 50 centers do not get too much fun on Paki forums is because they are always being praised. Here the admiration, awe and "greetings" at Chinese developments combined with Indians lecturing each other not to mock the Chinese must surely give the 5 centers a special feeling.

While there has been some sarcasm in this thread, I keep repeating that there is nothing wrong in being fearful of China. We just need to address those fears in a dedicated thread rather than collapsing into a flurry of self flagellatory posts in every thread that a 50 center or his respecter visits.

For a while I had tried without success to post disclaimers that I was not mocking the Chinese, but when an Indian asserts that he is not mocking the Chinese it is not good enough. Here is a disclaimer I had made it a point to post while saying anything that might be construed as remotely critical of China. But the disclaimer was never good enough. There had to be a complete moratorium on being critical of China and a free for all in picking out India's numerous faults. For such an attitude, this thread is perfect.
  • China is rapidly progressing
  • Do not underestimate China
  • China is sitting on US$ 1 trillion
  • Quantity is quality
  • China is manufacturing world class electronics
  • Helicopters, Planes, ships and chips may look like copies of Western or Russian stuff, but inside they are all different and far more advanced. The resemblance is purely coincidental.
  • I have great respect for China
  • India is inferior in every sphere
  • They have megaton bombs
  • They are efficient while Indians are corrupt and inefficient
  • Indians are silly to criticize China
This is the thread to analyse why we will get out butts kicked by China I would like to see a listing and discussion of all India's warts, DRDO , BEML, psec, OFB etc who are plotting to ensure that India is defeated. This is the thread to consolidate all that and join the dots
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by pentaiah »

Ok since Shiv Ji has dragged my post which basically tells the truth
If the truth is giving julab then banana therapy will do
Challo
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We made Vespa scooter from 1959
Still bajaj had to go collaboration
We will be hit one fine morning like republicans are today
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by TSJones »

You know suffering defeat can be an exciting prospect. Fighting fierce rear guard actions and all of that. Anybody ever see the movie Red Dawn? Wolverines!
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

pentaiah wrote:Ok since Shiv Ji has dragged my post which basically tells the truth
Pentaiahji you surely must imagine that you are the only one telling the truth to make such a statement. You seem to have missed all other posts. You alone were never enough.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

TSJones wrote:You know suffering defeat can be an exciting prospect. Fighting fierce rear guard actions and all of that.
I may be wrong, but I was always under the impression that war means preparing for every eventuality, including the possibility of rout and what to do to minimize the possibility of rout.

Any warfighting doctrine that does not take that into account is probably living on high hopes and crossed fingers.

In the India China context - since there are two sides, war can be initiated by either side. The side that initiates war, ideally has some aims and has prepared itself to dominate the other side's forces and defeat them. Logically if we are to take into account the fact that Chinese forces are far bigger, better funded and more sophisticated than Indian forces, India would be unwise to start war. China on the other hand might start war, so India must worry first and foremost about avoiding defeat.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by RamaY »

The basic problem is that many Indians have already assumed an Indian defeat in The Next Indo-China War. They implicitly assume, perhaps evidently, that India has insufficient military deterrence to prevent a conflict. They also assume that we are insufficient in our ability to defend territory once the war begins. Since we are simultaneously so sure and so hopeless, we have two choices - either prepare for defeat or prepare to defend. This thread indirectly encourages the latter, but perhaps the subtlety is lost.
Pratikdas ji,

There is a third choice often pushed by this group of Indians - "Peace at any cost". This is the group that 'encourages' us to give more space to our opponents by demilitarizing, offering Indian political space and even conceding land.
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

RamaY wrote:
There is a third choice often pushed by this group of Indians - "Peace at any cost". This is the group that 'encourages' us to give more space to our opponents by demilitarizing, offering Indian political space and even conceding land.
In fact this thread could be used for a debate between all 3 groups. The peacemongers, the defeat seers and the hashish high jingos. The wrestling matches between these groups has been killing a lot of threads by going OT
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by shiv »

dhiraj wrote:@year 2022 - Assumption : China has reasonably developed J 20 and J 31 and inducted a few squadrons (they are good in manufacturing and inducting in large numbers ) and provided 1 squadron each of J 20 and J 31 to Pakistan.

Now how is it going to affect the deep strike capability of Rafale and Sukhoi of the IAF. Will the scenario be something like the PAK FA will have the responsibility to clear the air space while the Rafale and Sukhoi follow them to perform the deep strike.

If that is the case then the availability of PAK FA by 2020 with all the features that have been promised in it becomes much more critical.
Another thing that needs to be analysed will be the conflict between two stealth fighters against each other, what will be the scenarios , how does one realign there operational tactics in both offensive / defensive situation and finally how does stealth and non-stealth fighters combine there capabilities to achieve optimum result.

Notwithstanding the engine development issues that China may be facing ( anyway we should not relax with this news when suddenly one day they showcase a brand new engine meeting there requirement and again we start playing catch up) , i think that with the speed with which they have shown the J 20 and J 31 to the world , and with the kind of secrecy that they will maintain about their capability , having 300 such fighters will definitely have a major psychological effect around the region and may even lead to a more aggresive China.

Any thoughts ?
Three possible scenarios:
1. The Chinese J-20 and J 31 s will kick Indian butt and we will lose the war soon after China gains air dominance
2. India will win despite J 20 and J 31
3. The air forces will not dominate and the war course will depend on what happens on land or at sea
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Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by pentaiah »

Shiv ji is wrong

India will always win, no matter what PRC can throw at us.
We won in 1962 and in 1967 any time it's given.
All PRC can show is photoshopped pictures of western a/c and all their billions in USD are fake currency and T notes printed in PRC on copied printers and fake printing cartridges.

Nothing about PRC is to be believed. Even their maps that show Tibet in PRC in reality Dalai Lama rules Tibet. India army still is in Aksai Chin


Jai Hind

This will make me better patriot than Shiv :mrgreen:

Proof see everything about PRC is fake one look at this map is enough

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TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by TSJones »

I don't think the main worry is China taking over India. I think it is the possibility that China could force India to cede whatever it is that China wants.

So what does China want?
srin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2509
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:13

Re: Preparing for Defeat by the Dragon

Post by srin »

TSJones wrote:I don't think the main worry is China taking over India. I think it is the possibility that China could force India to cede whatever it is that China wants.

So what does China want?
Actually - that is a very good question. Why China and India would determine how they react.
I don't know enough about China to know what it wants. But I can guess what India does *not* want.

Some threats that may be the casus belli:
a) Linkup with Pakistan in / near Siachen. India might decide to pre-emptive take over Shaksgam valley (belongs to India, taken over by Pakistan and ceded to China). This will secure our hold over Siachen.

b) Severing Siliguri corridor and isolating north-east by a thrust from Chumbi valley.

c) Diversion / damming of Brahmaputra. This is probably the most likely, IMO.
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