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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 21:24 
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Not sure if this was covered before.

Quote:
The Chinese J-20 FGFA, by most expert opinion, is dead in water – without an engine, AESA radar, technologies that the Chinese lack.


http://rt.com/news/fifth-generation-j-2 ... ngine-261/

Quote:
China is making an attempt to catch up with world leaders and develop hi-tech vehicles in the absence of crucial military know-how and technology, like engines for ultrasonic cruise flights and active phased array antennas.
“As of now, it is too early to say that China is capable of creating a fifth-generation jet from start to finish,” told RT Vasily Kashin from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies....
As of now, the J-20 flies with two Russian AL-31F jet engines it borrowed from the Russian Su-27 fighter jet that entered Chinese service in the mid-1980s.
China also tried to put engines of their own on a second test J-20 vehicle, but the copycat of the Soviet engine AL-31F made by China is not in the same league as the Russian analogue for reliability and durability....


They have been attempting to buy Su-35 engines through aircraft purchase, which, as of last I heard, has not taken off.


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 21:40 
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Location: Desh ke baarei mei sochna shuru karo. Soch badlo, desh badlega!
So where has all those money gone that they put in so called research and development to develop a world class engine


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PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 23:19 
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krishnan wrote:
So where has all those money gone that they put in so called research and development to develop a world class engine

There is only one sure way of converting money into an engine and that is to buy from established players.

Anything else remains an uncertain exercise fraught with hurdles.

The problem is that if you spend X time developing say a particular blade alloy and run it. Suppose it runs 10 hours and fails. You scrap it and try a new formula. The new formula runs 50 hours. You think you have hit the jackpot and then at 52 hours it fails. Trial 3 gets a blade that fails. Trial 4 gets an alloy that lasts 100 hours and you say "heck we Chinese are bold. Put it in a plane and fly it". Fine it flies but conks out at 250 hours or at high RPM. Then what?

Then you look at the calendar and find that 5-10 years have gone and several million spent. Apply the same issues to several other components. You get an engine that looks like its great but you find that the damn thing chokes up and stops if the plane tries to do a loop. Then what?

Technology is knowing what will fail. Knowing what you must not do and which direction you need to head. The existing engine manufacturers have done all that 50 years ago. Try throwing money at a calendar. It won't move you back to last year. The Chinese will never ever talk about failures because they are a people who put very great emphasis on not losing face. And in communist China a functionary who brings shame by admitting a mistake may have his balls converted to noodle fry.


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 Post subject: From Nightwatch
PostPosted: 09 Nov 2012 23:40 
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Nightwatch's take on Chinese military matters

NightWatch-For the night of 8 November 2012 wrote:
As for military affairs, Hu promised that China would complete military mechanization and "full IT application" in its armed forces by 2020. He described the military's most important task as its ability "to win local wars in an information age".

Comment: This statement means that China's leaders do not envision their armed forces as capable of winning a general war with the United States or a coalition of its neighbors. This self-portrait might be deceptive, but it apparently is the genuine and current formula for force development. It implies that cyber warfare is intrinsic to winning.


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PostPosted: 10 Nov 2012 09:18 
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shiv wrote:
krishnan wrote:
So where has all those money gone that they put in so called research and development to develop a world class engine

There is only one sure way of converting money into an engine and that is to buy from established players.

Anything else remains an uncertain exercise fraught with hurdles.

The problem is that if you spend X time developing say a particular blade alloy and run it. Suppose it runs 10 hours and fails. You scrap it and try a new formula. The new formula runs 50 hours. You think you have hit the jackpot and then at 52 hours it fails. Trial 3 gets a blade that fails. Trial 4 gets an alloy that lasts 100 hours and you say "heck we Chinese are bold. Put it in a plane and fly it". Fine it flies but conks out at 250 hours or at high RPM. Then what?

Then you look at the calendar and find that 5-10 years have gone and several million spent. Apply the same issues to several other components. You get an engine that looks like its great but you find that the damn thing chokes up and stops if the plane tries to do a loop. Then what?

Technology is knowing what will fail. Knowing what you must not do and which direction you need to head. The existing engine manufacturers have done all that 50 years ago. Try throwing money at a calendar. It won't move you back to last year. The Chinese will never ever talk about failures because they are a people who put very great emphasis on not losing face. And in communist China a functionary who brings shame by admitting a mistake may have his balls converted to noodle fry.


Great post Shivji. Money can only do so much.


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PostPosted: 10 Nov 2012 11:03 
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^^^

But money with a combination of persistence and mixing and matching may just result in finding out the winning formula. That gives an injune life of 10000+ hrs for both civil and military applications.

So the PRC may just get to a winning combination.


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PostPosted: 10 Nov 2012 14:17 
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Pratyush wrote:
So the PRC may just get to a winning combination.


Naturally. This goes without saying. Everyone who wants to make an engine needs to spend money and effort to get there. You cannot trip over anything if you are sitting down. You need to get up and walk. The point I was trying to make is that the time factor in engine development is unpredictable and unavoidable. 10,000 hours is a big number. Getting an engine that good is not easy and is not guaranteed by mere money. Time counts too.

If the Chinese have a winning combination, they have shown no evidence of it yet given their propensity for showing off combined with the fact that they are importing a lot of engines. If the Chinese have the guts to export even one aircraft with an indigenous engine that is not a knockoff from a previous import, everyone in the world would be interested in looking at it. The fact that they have not does it suggests that such a reliable, exportable engine does not exist. Secrecy means they are hiding warts, given that they do not hide successes.


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PostPosted: 10 Nov 2012 21:00 
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http://business-standard.com/india/news ... vy/492230/

Chinese J-31 heightens dilemma for Indian Navy

Quote:

Will the J-31 push the navy towards more advanced fighters and a second IAC with catapult assisted launch? All options remain on the table. Then naval chief, Admiral Nirmal Verma, speaking in Delhi on August 7 shortly before he retired, did not rule out “having an entirely different carrier with a different complement of aircraft.”

That decision, however, would be a difficult one, keeping in mind that two carriers would already be fielding the MiG-29K, and a new fighter would complicate training and logistics.

“I can’t rule out anything or rule in anything. It is something at the concept stage and it will take a couple of years before we firm up our ideas on this,” said Admiral Verma.

The navy’s eyes will be focused on the Zhuhai Air Show, in China, in mid-November for more details that might emerge about China’s new stealth fighter.





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PostPosted: 10 Nov 2012 21:09 
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Don wrote:
http://business-standard.com/india/news/new-chinese-stealth-fighter-heightens-dilemma-for-indian-navy/492230/


We Indians are masters are dhoti shivering. One flight. Two photos. And see what the news item reads.
Quote:
The Indian Navy’s 45 Russian MiG-29Ks, purchased for two new aircraft carriers, are capable fighters today, but would certainly be outclassed by the stealthy J-31 whenever it enters service.


It is already decided. It is because we seem to think in this way that we can only prepare for defeat. We can never give victory a chance because we need no proof (other than 1962) to prove our inferiority.

The Indian press reflects the mind of the Indian.

But then again wasn't Ajai Shukla the guy who is being paid to promote JSF? Correct me if I am wrong


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PostPosted: 10 Nov 2012 23:19 
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Now that the Rafale is almost with the IAF(hope there is no slip between the cup and the lip) wouldnt have a problem if the Navy chooses the F35 for its carriers. Cant see a naval version of the FGFA on a future IAC. If the IN wants a stealth aircraft for its carriers it has to be either the F35 or a naval AMCA. 8)


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 00:55 
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shiv wrote:

Quote:
The Indian Navy’s 45 Russian MiG-29Ks, purchased for two new aircraft carriers, are capable fighters today, but would certainly be outclassed by the stealthy J-31 whenever it enters service.


It is already decided. It is because we seem to think in this way that we can only prepare for defeat. We can never give victory a chance because we need no proof (other than 1962) to prove our inferiority.

The Indian press reflects the mind of the Indian.

But then again wasn't Ajai Shukla the guy who is being paid to promote JSF? Correct me if I am wrong


AMCA will beat JSF, MJK and ABCD whenever it and/or the others enter service!

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Mr. Shooklaw is under the paid service of LM and others - always advocating US products irrespective of of their caliber and need for India. Anywhere else, his article would be published under advertisement columns.. :roll:


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 02:33 
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Don wrote:


Fox One or Fox Two

:rotfl:


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 02:36 
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shiv,
I think you're taking the whole piskology/dhoti shivering angle a bit too far. In the past when our neighbours acquire capability seen as threatening we done what was required to maintain our combat edge. Pakis acquiring F16s, the probability of them getting M1 Abrams, the ukranian T80s, all of them have forced us to take countermeasures. Surely we do no dhoti shivering against the Pakis ? The chinese are building up very impressive capabilities from what we've been reading. Not all of them are the military equivalent of their 'ghost cities'.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 04:58 
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Shukla truly needs to stop making a fool out of himself with this lifafa fascination for stealth


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 05:01 
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nice read
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a517972.pdf

for every stratergy there is a counter stratergy.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 05:23 
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KrishnaK wrote:
shiv,
I think you're taking the whole piskology/dhoti shivering angle a bit too far.


Rubbish. I am not. I am only pointing out the obvious
.
May I use a medical analogy? If you go to a doctor with a sore throat and he takes one look at your face and says you have AIDS you would change your doctor. On the other hand we see one photo of a Chinese plane made to look like an F 35 and we conclude that it is going to be vastly superior to everything with have at some unspecified time in the future without having any information at all! How silly is that? I am amazed that even you are not more curious about what the Chinese are hiding and, instead, you are being critical of me for wanting to know much more before jumping to wild conclusions. What's the matter mate? What do you know about these aircraft that makes you so anxious? Is curiosity a mistake? Is is piskology to ask why everyone jumps to conclusions without data?

This is what I meant by people being easily satisfied and thinking they know everything when given the the barest of data. You know nothing about the J 31. And I am at fault for making that obvious? Come off it please

If you have unpublished information about the J 31 that you can share, please do so. Stop accusing me of things I am not doing. Do you seriously believe the James Bonda type story that the Chinese "got plans" for the F-35 and just built everything? I put it to you that you don't know what the F-35 means if you think that is possible.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 05:49 
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If a newbie comes to BRF and asks - "Could someone give me info or point me to resources about the technical specifications and performance the JSF" (Or Rafale, or LCA, or PAKFA or F-22) people will jump up and tell hm because sources and info are plentiful. On the other hand I ask "Could someone give me info or point me to resources about the technical specifications and performance the J 31" I get accused of piskofying. Why? Are we all supposed to get anxious and worked up with no information at all? Fear of the unknown? China anxiety?

I mean how does one prepare for a potential threat which we know nothing about? By becoming anxious?


Last edited by shiv on 11 Nov 2012 06:14, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 06:13 
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shiv wrote:
I mean how does one prepare for a potential threat which we know nothing about? By becoming anxious?


Shiv sir, isn't it the point. One does not know the potential threat from whom we term enemy no 1. That is scary.

If you know about nut and bolt of it, than we can predict. This entity is unknown. So, either it can be real threat or just fuss.
One has to prepare for it, if it will turn out to be a real threat.

Yes it is a copy of F-35, may not same as F-35 or even just frame and a stolen design but right now it is in the sky.

-Ankit


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 06:16 
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Ankit Desai wrote:

Yes it is a copy of F-35, may not same as F-35 or even just frame and a stolen design but right now it is in the sky.


Does this scare you?
If it does what information do you have that I don't have that is so scary?

Could you please give me some facts?

If we are unaware of what a threat is, surely preparing for defeat and post defeat life is a good idea no? How can you prepare for an assumed threat? It may be much worse than what you are preparing for.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 06:44 
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Yes it scares me that I don't know about the entity which is flying in to my neighbour, which can come knocking on my door. To which I should have prepared even if tomorrow it will turn out to be fuss.

Please don't take meaning of scare to it literal meaning. It is relate to concern than scare scare in this context. If I am the defender of India, than I am concern right now and I have to prepare for it.

Yes I came down to concern from scare so let's not argue on scare and concern, I explained it above what I meant.

-Ankit


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 07:24 
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Ankit Desai wrote:
Yes it scares me that I don't know about the entity which is flying in to my neighbour, which can come knocking on my door. To which I should have prepared even if tomorrow it will turn out to be fuss.

Please don't take meaning of scare to it literal meaning. It is relate to concern than scare scare in this context. If I am the defender of India, than I am concern right now and I have to prepare for it.

Yes I came down to concern from scare so let's not argue on scare and concern, I explained it above what I meant.

Thank you.

This is precisely what I am trying to point out. This is precisely what is afflicting this thread.

China causes vague concerns, anxieties and fears that cannot be pinned down exactly. Please forgive me for using a medical analogy. People come to doctors with vague fears, concerns and anxieties related to a pain here or a catch there. From the doctor's viewpoint the problem can range from something that should cause no concern to something that might kill the patient in a few weeks. The doc is not in a position to make a judgement as soon as he gets to know the patient's symptom whether this person is destined to be dead soon or is unnecessarily anxious. Unless the doc can get more information one way or another there is no use getting worked up. The need is to get more information. The doctor cannot entertain vague anxieties and fears that he may catch something deadly from the patient or that he too has those vague aches that might indicate deadly disease.

On this thread we need to look for information about Chinese developments. Not have vague anxieties and fears about how threatened we feel. The Chinese have become masters at releasing just enough information to play with others fears and anxieties. But succumbing to that is just what the Chinese gain from. Set vague fears aside and get the data. What is the data we have? If there is no data there is no need to have vague fears unless one insists on being afraid of China with no specific reason other than the fact that they kicked Indian ass and still scare Indians shitless.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 08:11 
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Shivji, just because the nation came up with stealth fighter happened to be Chinese, doesn't mean we discard the threat (even if it will turn out to be no threat).

Here you are assuming that no data means no cause to concern/worry and the nation is China so just discard the entity.

If some remote nation like western european nation or south american nation came up with stealth fighter than India shouldn't mind it but if pakis or china moves a little, I will definitely keep an eye on it and check my armory before discarding it.

Did you have same view when Chinese shoot down the satellite ? Yes India or world may have got the data after Chinese shoot it down but until than no data. After that shot out even we heard APJK talking about, keep space out of arm race and all. What do you want to say about it ? anxieties ?

I heard many formal intelligence people talk about preparedness on television shows. They say preparedness are of two types. One, you should be prepared to arrest after incident happen and another you should be prepared to stop/arrest the incident to be happened.

I am talking about second one as far as India's concern is concerned. It is not anxiety.

There is a say in local "Awakened person is always happy".

-Ankit


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 08:37 
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Ankit Desai wrote:
Here you are assuming that no data means no cause to concern/worry and the nation is China so just discard the entity.



Ankit. You are the one who is making the assumptions. I repeat the accusation.

No data means no data. Concern/worry is a choice. No data means that we need to look for data, not satisfy ourselves by worrying.

What effort has anyone put in to get data before starting the worrying? The assumption is that the data we have is enough to start worrying. What data do we have apart from 2 photos? Hiding behind truisms like "Awakened person is always happy" indicates that happiness comes from anxiety that one is unable to pinpoint and little effort is made to even look at the data we have in hand to see what causes anxiety. An awakened person has sleepless nights and he really should spend more time figuring out what is keeping him awake.

We don't know what the Chinese have made. We don't know their capability. They are deliberately hiding it (I have more to say on this point but not in this post) We are simply worried that they may chew our asses off like the did in 1962. Should we simply worry and say "I am awake and alert from worry" or shoud we try and see what specific issues need to be followed up?

How come I am the only person on this thread who has even made an attempt to analyse the possible Chinese technology in J-31? Even Ajai Shukla has jumped to wild conclusions without a modicum of analysis. And too many people seem to be quite happy to do that.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 09:01 
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shiv wrote:
We don't know what the Chinese have made. We don't know their capability. They are deliberately hiding it (I have more to say on this point but not in this post)



When the Chinese hide capability from us and show us only a glimpse of possibilities, they are playing a game with us.

What are the possibilities?

Let me first list out the possibilities. After that it is OK to talk about which possibilities are more likely to be true. After that we can make an assessment of how we can respond to a threat. If we assume the worst, then we have to be prepared for the worst. The worst is defeat. So prepare for defeat. In general terms preparing for defeat is a very good thing because it assumes that everything we have will be insufficient to hold back an attacker. But that is not germane to this thread.

What possibilities are on display when the Chinese fly a J-20 in January 2012, and a J 31 in October 2012?

Possibility 1. The Chinese are displaying only the tip of the iceberg. The have many secret and well developed technologies that we don't even know about. We are simply concerned about J 20 and J 31 because they have shown it. What they do not show could be far more dangerous. So the Chinese who were already more powerful than us are now getting unbeatable.

Possibility 2. The Chinese are working hard on technology. They may have copied the shapes and have successfully flown a couple of aircraft whose capabilities and function they have not announced. They seem to be deliberately holding that information back. What could the possible reasons be for holding information back and just revealing a little bit? it could be posturing. The real tech behind 5th gen is not easy to develop or acquire. They have a way to go so they need to be watched. We need to differentiate between the threat the offer today versus what threat they might offer in future.

Possibility 3: It's all posturing. The Chinese are putting up a fancy show and have a long way to go. they are behaving like a totalitarian state under threat trying to bare its fangs. Since they are known to be deceitful frauds who have plenty of nuclear weapons to fight their wars, the need for this pretence of high tech must have some purpose. This could also be an internal political need to show to their population that with their own political system they are as great as America.

In terms of threat, the Chinese already have more nuclear weapons than we have. they have more men, more aircraft, more money. So what is the need for J-20 and J-31 or Varyag to cause more anxiety? If we were going to be defeated yesterday, we are still going to be defeated onlee today.

Preparation for defeat needs to go on some other thread. Let us look at actual Chinese capability here. Let is collect and analyse the data so that at some future date, if our asses have not already been kicked, we actually know what we are up against rather than doing what we are good at, that is to assume the worst and prepare for the worst.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 11:21 
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It is not just the Chinese releasing the pics. In my view, a collective awareness of a waking Chinese Dragaon (the picture being painted, at least) by the US, Russies, Japanese, etc., the brazenness of Chinese in the SCS, taking on the Japanese over Senkaku, the string of pearls theory, the 'rise' of the economic giant to a possible 'superpower' next only to US, and such other things, collectively paint a picture that China should not be taken lightly - with some action/assertiveness by Chinese to back it up. This is the background that is causing anxiety in many Indians, apart from what I heard from my grandpa that the Chinese kicked us in the rear when he was in prime. It is the big picture that is causing anxiety - not just the J 20.

While no data on the Chinese weaponry is a fact - their progress in even putting something that flies and floats and looks like a copy of a F-35/JSF is a cause for concern - as against the other adversary Pak who cannot even duplicate a pin.

I do not think we can expect to get data - unless as in a true war.. Hopefully not that way. China otherwise is an Iron Curtain. we do not know what info GoI, MI and RAW has on Chinese capabilities. But nothing in public domain that can underscore conclusively to some data.

My opinion is that it is mostly Point 3 (posturing) and some of Point 2 (working hard) above. That is the reason why GoI has decided to inflict maximum possible damage in case of hostilities and changing the defense posture from pure defense to offence/defense. I am sure we all know that we cannot run over the Chinese and win a pure conventional war - nuclear will come into play at some point - and both sides will have heavy collateral damage. The effort on India's side now seems to be to make the price for any limited engagement or surprise attack so heavy that Chinese will have to think many times before such an adventure. In the next 3-5 years we will be adequately prepared for that - LCAs, MMRCA, Brahmos, IGMDP, Apaches, P8-Is, Arihant, etc. All our weapons development and deployments seem to be to ensure a robust defense and a severe counter attack that would be very expensive for the Chinese.

So, do not worry - have curry! Enjoy J20 ride at Zhuhai Airshow.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 13:29 
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This thread has stopped being the "China military watch" thread and has now turned into the "China anxiety watch" thread. What I find funny is that these people would find it outrageous if someone dismissed China as weak and cowardly, given that it hasn't been in a fight (save killing harmless Tibetan monks) for a long time and has no recent proof of its prowess, except for some fancy painted equipment. If that were the measure of one's strength then Saudi Barbaria would be VERY strong, given that they have gold plated stuff that even unkil cannot afford. In fact I am sure one would be in for numerous lectures of how superior and dangerous China is and how weak and pathetic India is. All the same, they have no shame in being gullible enough to fall for every Chinese propaganda piece and believe in their invincibility (with regard to India) without them even making a real effort. Even without any respectable info on this matter, they are willing to take China at face value, which is the right thing to do since China is sooooooooooooooo trustworthy. Basically, whatever good is said about India would be either laughed at by these people or will be dissected until only faults remain. At the same time, no matter what propaganda comes out of China, these people have immediate episodes of stress incontinence and come on this thread (and others) to relieve themselves. This has no end at all. Every periodic infestation of China dhoti-shiverers is just a news article away. As soon as someone like Shiv manages to inject some sense into the thread, invariably there will be another propaganda report and were are back to square one. I think on the first page of this thread itself, we need to inform these wise minds who come to educate the local SDREs that we are already in awe and fear of China already and they need not inform us. It will save all of us a lot of time.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 14:10 
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shiv wrote:
shiv wrote:
Preparation for defeat needs to go on some other thread. Let us look at actual Chinese capability here. Let is collect and analyse the data so that at some future date, if our asses have not already been kicked, we actually know what we are up against rather than doing what we are good at, that is to assume the worst and prepare for the worst.


Lets open a new thread as suggested by Shiv "Preparing for defeat by the Dragon". Come to think of it I will go and open one so that all doti shivering can be done in there. :twisted: Dont think the admins will let it remain though. But if they do at least this will be a China Military Watch thread.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 14:36 
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yantra wrote:
It is not just the Chinese releasing the pics. In my view, a collective awareness of a waking Chinese Dragaon (the picture being painted, at least) by the US, Russies, Japanese, etc., the brazenness of Chinese in the SCS, taking on the Japanese over Senkaku, the string of pearls theory, the 'rise' of the economic giant to a possible 'superpower' next only to US, and such other things, collectively paint a picture that China should not be taken lightly - with some action/assertiveness by Chinese to back it up. This is the background that is causing anxiety in many Indians, apart from what I heard from my grandpa that the Chinese kicked us in the rear when he was in prime. It is the big picture that is causing anxiety - not just the J 20.


You would make a good psychoanalyst if you are not already one. What you have described is the perfect analysis of "vague and undefined fears". Reassurance dos not cure this, but a dissection and discussion of individual components of the anxiety causing factors helps. But there is now a separate thread to deal with this.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 15:51 
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BRFite

Joined: 30 Mar 2009 02:35
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Quote:
Unable to copy it, China tries building own jet engine
(Reuters) - China has designed nuclear missiles and blasted astronauts into space, but one vital technology remains out of reach. Despite decades of research and development, China has so far failed to build a reliable, high performance jet engine.

This may be about to change. China's aviation sector is striving for a breakthrough that would end its dependence on Russian and Western power plants for military and commercial aircraft.

Beijing is evaluating a 100 billion yuan plan to galvanize a disjointed and under-funded engine research effort, aviation industry officials say. :eek: The giant, state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China AVIC.L, China's dominant military and commercial aviation contractor, has been lobbying hard for the extra money, officials familiar with the details say.

AVIC, with more than 400,000 employees and 200 subsidiaries including 20 listed companies, has already set aside about 10 billion yuan of its own funds for jet engine development over the next three years.

The engine financing plan is under high-level discussion in Beijing, said Zhao Yuxing, an official at the securities office of Shanghai-listed Xi'an Aero-Engine Plc (600893.SS), a key military engine-making unit of AVIC. "What we know is our company has been included in the strategic programme, which is designed to greatly develop and support the engine industry," he said by phone from his company's headquarters in the northwestern city of Xi'an.

China's military industry as a whole has suffered from Tiananmen-era bans on the sale of military equipment from the United States and Europe. Moreover, foreign engine-makers have been loath to transfer technology. That has prevented China from taking its usual route to closing a technology gap: copying it.

Some Chinese aviation industry specialists forecast that Beijing will eventually spend up to 300 billion yuan on jet engine development over the next two decades.

"China's aircraft engines have obviously been under-invested," said Wang Tianyi, a defence sector analyst with Shanghai's Orient Securities. "One hundred billion yuan is not a huge amount of money in the engine world."

JEALOUSLY GUARDED SECRETS

While AVIC's long term priority is to develop high performance engines for military aircraft, it is also trying to design power plants for passenger aircraft in the world's fastest growing civil aviation market. Based on projected demand from Western aircraft manufacturers, engines for new passenger aircraft delivered in China could be worth more than $100 billion over the next 20 years.

"Historically, all major players in aerospace have possessed both airframe and engine design capabilities," said Carlo Kopp, the Melbourne, Australia-based founder of Air Power Australia, an independent military aviation think tank. "Until China can design and produce competitive engines, the performance and capabilities of Chinese aircraft designs will be seriously limited by what technology they are permitted to import."

....

That's an overkill
300 bn Yuan is a huge sum of money for engine tech only.
Given the fact that in case of china, its reported after it had already started (WS series was declared a no go much earlier,so that means re-engineering efforts must have started somwhere near 2009.) , they would have completed initial models by now.
This sum of money they are willing to invest will be nearly $50 bn by 2025, that's the half of the spending on arms we will be doing by then,given the pace .
It also means that they want to enter in export quality civilian/military aircraft market by 2025 or earlier and also that they dont want to rely on any supplier in war like situations..
These concerted efforts are in the area of quality improvement only..
Whatever we are ranting here about their quality and technological depth , such is going to change rapidly in the next decade, because the data speaks for itself. ?


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 21:29 
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BRF Oldie

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 23780
Location: Confucius say: bell ring as many times as you strike it, else it not ring
^^
Funny news that. A lot of earlier reports from China have suggested that the Chinese have seen raging success in engine design

http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.i ... wered.html
Quote:
The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is continues testing J-10B fighter jet powered By indigenous WS-10 engine.


http://www.jf-17.com/engine/
Quote:
China is also working on an indigenous engine which has the potential to power the FC-1 in future. The engine is known as WS-13 Taishen. It is a turbofan engine developed by Guizhou Aircraft Industry Corporation. It was reported that JF-17 had been tested with the engine in early 2010.

WS-13 Specifications:
Maximum thrust: 51.2 kilonewtons (11,500 lbf) dry; 86.37 kilonewtons (19,420 lbf) with afterburner
Length: 4.14 metres (13.6 ft)
Diameter: 1.02 metres (3 ft 4 in)
Dry weight: 1,135 kilograms (2,500 lb)
Compressor: Two-spool 8-stage axial
Combustors: annular
Bypass ratio: 0.57:1
Turbine inlet temperature: 1650 K (1,377 °C (2,511 °F))
Thrust-to-weight ratio: 7.8

There have been reports of 100kN/22,450lbs thrust version under development.


http://www.defence.pk/forums/air-warfar ... gines.html
Quote:
18 tons (for J-20) - China's WS-15 ("Initial Operational Capability"/IOC 2020. Successful prototype operation in 2005). WS-15 has a low bypass ratio and J-20 can supercruise.


I wonder which data represents exaggeration. the earlier boasts about engines or the current boasts about funding? :roll:
Anyway the real data is a flying, working exportable engine. The Chinese know better than anyone else on earth that you cannot simply clone engines. They need not be afraid of showing off their super engines. But yet they are :lol:


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 21:35 
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Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 11361
Location: Revive Sanskrit
Everything is relative.

China relative to India, yes what they have done and what they are willing to do, is impressive.

China relative to Russia is far less impressive. And in relation to the US (IMVVHO of course) not even close.

So, for China to invest 300 Billion Yuans ($48 Billion?) over 20 years is rather impressive. But, it cannot buy them the R&D that other vendors have put into these engines. Even if China re-steals China cannot catch up.

IMHO China will have to resort to using stolen versions of Photoshop to impress all of us. Of course China can impress the countries they export to, Pakistan being an exception.

My prediction is that the J-31 is just an impressive shell. Until such planes have not one, but 2 or even 3, Chinese engines as viable options, I would not be very impressed. And, I have not even touched sensors, etc.

India can/will compensate by buying these technologies.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 21:48 
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Joined: 07 Jun 2012 20:26
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Location: Chaprasi and Bawarchi third gilass, South East corner, aka Agneya
Lets be gracious honest and realistic.
PRC is surging ahead
Till 1970 their S&T and products and engineering was at least two decades behind India.

Now in the very same fields they are ahead by attest decade and half over all segments of engineering science technology manufacturing and ECONOMY. In terms of getting to their goals as a nation they are 100% more committed and likely to achieve.

Having said that

I don't care if we can manufacture a stealth plane ship or not

Just make 100% Indian made propeller craft
Propeller engines for UAVs
Make 100 % indigenous tanks rifles ammunition body armor
If possible body bags instead of importing like we did during Kargil war at a huge cost

On the way a simple howitzer, and multi barrel rocket launchers even if they are statins organs of WWIi
Yeah I know Pinaka I want them firing on all barrels not 1 in 5

We are in snooze and loot mode while the world is marching ahead.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 22:26 
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Posts: 425
shiv wrote:
^^
Funny news that. A lot of earlier reports from China have suggested that the Chinese have seen raging success in engine design

http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.i ... wered.html
Quote:
The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is continues testing J-10B fighter jet powered By indigenous WS-10 engine.


http://www.jf-17.com/engine/
Quote:
China is also working on an indigenous engine which has the potential to power the FC-1 in future. The engine is known as WS-13 Taishen. It is a turbofan engine developed by Guizhou Aircraft Industry Corporation. It was reported that JF-17 had been tested with the engine in early 2010.

WS-13 Specifications:
Maximum thrust: 51.2 kilonewtons (11,500 lbf) dry; 86.37 kilonewtons (19,420 lbf) with afterburner
Length: 4.14 metres (13.6 ft)
Diameter: 1.02 metres (3 ft 4 in)
Dry weight: 1,135 kilograms (2,500 lb)
Compressor: Two-spool 8-stage axial
Combustors: annular
Bypass ratio: 0.57:1
Turbine inlet temperature: 1650 K (1,377 °C (2,511 °F))
Thrust-to-weight ratio: 7.8

There have been reports of 100kN/22,450lbs thrust version under development.


http://www.defence.pk/forums/air-warfar ... gines.html
Quote:
18 tons (for J-20) - China's WS-15 ("Initial Operational Capability"/IOC 2020. Successful prototype operation in 2005). WS-15 has a low bypass ratio and J-20 can supercruise.


I wonder which data represents exaggeration. the earlier boasts about engines or the current boasts about funding? :roll:
Anyway the real data is a flying, working exportable engine. The Chinese know better than anyone else on earth that you cannot simply clone engines. They need not be afraid of showing off their super engines. But yet they are :lol:


Last few days there is news spread around that J-10B is entering service next year. If that is true, we will know what engine they put in production soon.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 22:41 
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Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36
Posts: 4932
Location: land of strip and search
fear is the first and foremost cause of defeat.

china has been producing many planes and engines through decades. As Shiv says it all boils down to a simple workable exportable engine.

we have been producing or matching them - IGDMP, LCA,Arjun, Arihant and other projects over decades. some have done well, others in continual progress etc. we are not twiddling our thumbs.
we have not had the kind of foreign support china had. we have had sanctions throughout for decades.
we dont hide anything-- our scientists/project leaders are confident to that extent.(less dhoti shiver than mango sdre)
mango sdres highlight the negatives when speaking of ourselves.

this trait of dhoti shivering is worse on chinese side. :rotfl:
consider this ---
secrecy on chinese side shows much to fear on their part. This is significant weakness on chinese scientists. they resort to copy -steal -clone in every thing-- less confident of their capabilities.
They also have a lot to hide-- economy. social conditions, ccp health, and many others.

no wonder it has given birth to "shanghai statistics" :D


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 22:56 
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BRF Oldie

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Posts: 11361
Location: Revive Sanskrit
Quote:
Last few days there is news spread around that J-10B is entering service next year. If that is true, we will know what engine they put in production soon.


And the point is?

Has China, between yesterday and today, actually figured out to make world class aircraft engines? IF so, what is the need to invest 300 billion yuans?

Quote:
PRC is surging ahead


In relation to what? India? Good. For it does not say much.

This (Indo-Sino) is not a zero-sum game.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 22:56 
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Joined: 11 Aug 2007 17:20
Posts: 4512
Location: Pakistan is a Shouchalaya
Quote:
Last few days there is news spread around that J-10B


I wonder who is spleading this news :?:


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 23:31 
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Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31
Posts: 1621
@ pentaiah,
IMHO, not everything or even most things have to be 100% Indian. This approach is what killed socialist India in the past. The right approach is to buy it from who ever provides the best deal globally with some bias for domestic producers. Strategic reasons may also dictate some mandatary domestic production but India is following the right approach of purchasing mostly with global tenders which continuously exposes our domestic suppliers to international competition and benchmarks. Protected species like OFBs have become dens of inefficiency, backwardness and pain in the armed forces back.
This continuous exposure to global competition is what makes Indian MIC look in such a sorry state of misery and absence of such global competition (not by Chinese design but thanks to the sanctions) makes Chinese MIC and it's products look a lot superior than they actually are.
For instance the best military aircraft that China has made is K8 trainers that seems to be good enough for a lot of poorer developed countries. Next comes J-17 which is hardly acceptable to Pakistan, on terms of being co-developer, with a Russian engine and western radars/avionics. That's where the current state of art of Chinese military aircraft industry stands as of now. Unfortunately we are even behind this level with LCA struggling with a foreign engine, radar etc. The day Chinese can sell a half decent 4th gen aircraft to a poor turdworld country and even with subsidized loans, I'll buy it that they have reached at 4th gen tech levels. 5th gen as of now is all hot air coming out of communist politics. Just like their old nuclear submarines of past these 5th Gen aircraft would hardly be of any use to them in a real battle or even on CAPs.


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PostPosted: 11 Nov 2012 23:34 
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Joined: 28 Jul 2010 03:46
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Ashi - just where can we find more info on all these 'production grade' engines in terms of tests, reliability and performance data WS 10s, 13s, etc? How many test flights have been done without failures?


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PostPosted: 12 Nov 2012 00:27 
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Joined: 28 Jul 2010 03:46
Posts: 170
China, Sri Lanka to boost defence relations
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/ch ... /1030109/1
Not much detail here - anyone?


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PostPosted: 12 Nov 2012 00:34 
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Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57
Posts: 1270
The great rising power that is China, the CPC and the PLA are absolutely petrified of pigeons and what may come out of the passenger windows of taxis in Beijing:

Quote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-20203318

Additional security measures border on the absurd. The city's 60,000 taxi drivers have been ordered to prevent passengers from rolling down their backseat windows in an attempt to stop the distribution of anti-Communist literature.

"In the past, some passengers had thrown leaflets out the taxi window or inserted leaflets into ping-pong balls and threw them out or would let go of a balloon which had leaflets tied to it," says China's state-run Global Times newspaper.

Almost anything that can take flight has fallen under an umbrella of suspicion. Homing pigeons have been confined to their roosts. Remote-controlled toy airplanes cannot be purchased without first showing ID.


Once the J-31 gets closer to IOC, we know what it will be used for: to shoot down leaflets, ping pong balls, and homing pigeons carrying anti-CPC messages. No wonder shiv can't find any specs ...


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