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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 21:59 
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Er these missiles are subsonic and big. Akash spyder or any radar guided aa guns should be ablevto target albeit at short range. Some will leak in.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 22:19 
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that would be the III tier or another tier to defense against CM,UCAV or UAV,attack choppers,etc,etc.....

Probably akash-II or variant of astra(like spyder) or Iron Dome in future...


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 22:32 
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RamaY sahab,
Pakistanis, in their own words, lack strategic depth. :mrgreen: Unlike India, majority of their military installations as well as industrial and population targets can be wiped off in 1-2 days of air and missile strikes. Same thing is not possible for Indo-China war due to hardware constraints on Chinese side and larger area of India and difficult border terrain. I don't think that Chinese are that rich or have that many friends to afford such attention on India

Vivek_Ahuja
This scenario is getting more interesting with every post. Loved the last one.

Gurneesh
Another Ensiferum fan, eh.? What about playing Wind Rider too while you are at it ?


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 23:06 
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Awesome posts Vivek! Just one teeny-tiny nitpick.
Quote:
One of the Rudra helicopters suddenly flew overhead as it fired its chin-mounted 30mm cannon

Rudra has the same 20mm Nexter turret as the LCH.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 23:10 
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nachiket wrote:
Awesome posts Vivek! Just one teeny-tiny nitpick.
Quote:
One of the Rudra helicopters suddenly flew overhead as it fired its chin-mounted 30mm cannon

Rudra has the same 20mm Nexter turret as the LCH.


Oops. That was a typo. I fixed it in the post. Thanks for bringing that to my attention.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 23:16 
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vivek_ahuja wrote:
..Crew fatigue and insufficient backup reserves (IAF case especially given the squadron numbers and pilot deficiencies) add to the above. Bottom line is that it is my firm opinion that the IAF is not geared for long duration, high-intensity war at this present time. We need a lot more airborne radars, dual ground and flight crews to allow rotations and rapid turn-around times (similar to the other IAF: Israel), larger stocks of weapons rather than the piddly amounts we seem to purchase in every deal...


Absolutely. Even this scenario, since it takes place in the future, assumes that the we have several of the CABS AEW's flying around alongside the 3 (6?) Phalcons. As of today, that is still in testing leaving us with only 3 Phalcons. There doesn't seem to be any move to buy more Phalcons either, after some initial noises. The scenario also takes into account the higher numbers of MKI's that we'll have 2-4 years down the line. If a chinese attack as described here were to happen today, the air war would go significantly worse for us.

Another area of concern is the lack of large orders for PGMs, including Sudarshan kits.


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PostPosted: 04 Dec 2012 04:00 
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Singha wrote:
I think india needs to keep a close eye on the versions and production rates of the cj10 long sword family. It gives them a very convenient long range strike option without using ballistic missiles. Hence very tempting to use. Yunnan is one continuous mesh of north south mountains and hills ( see articles on the tea horse road) ... Telars will be nearly impossible to track in that maze..as also low flying glcm which mask their approach by flying low....first warning ground based radar or aerostats will get is when they crest the last of these ranges and slide down into eastern assam....20-30 mins away from vital targets.

In scenario case, rather than flying all the way into tibet they could have struck same targets by just flying into someplace in yunnan for a launch area.


In answer to CJ 10 if we were to use Kaveri as engine for a cruise missle, what kind of range and payload it'll be able to take?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GTRE_GTX-35VS_Kaveri#Design

Quote:
General characteristics
Type: afterburning turbofan
Length: 137.4 in (3490 mm) = 11ft 3 in
Diameter: 35.8 in (910 mm) = 2ft 11 in
Dry weight: 2,724 lb (1,235 kg)


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PostPosted: 04 Dec 2012 07:57 
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Vivekji, during the incident where an IAF pilot refused to Yuvraj on a Mi-17 in bad weather conditions in the NE area, the question came up on the how the supposedly state-of the-art for all weather flying Merlins would fare, you said that the Merlin didn't need high-altitude performance since its for VVIPs only, in the recent Italian investigation on the Augusta-Westland sales the same issue came up, an initial requirement was for 6500m and after the single vendor situation was scaled down to 4500m(?), something the Merlin could manage, so whats really the motive? bad Specs or vested interests?


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PostPosted: 04 Dec 2012 08:12 
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The kaveri is way too big and powerful to be a cruise missile engine unless you want a massive soviet era ks6 kingfish type missile as big as a plane.


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PostPosted: 05 Dec 2012 20:06 
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Singha wrote:
The kaveri is way too big and powerful to be a cruise missile engine unless you want a massive soviet era ks6 kingfish type missile as big as a plane.


Is it this one?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KSR-5#Variants
Quote:
The Raduga KSR-5 (NATO reporting name AS-6 Kingfish) was a long-range, air launched cruise missile and anti ship missile developed by the Soviet Union. It was essentially a scaled down version of the Raduga Kh-22 'Kitchen', built to be carried by the less capable Tu 16.

Specifications

Length: 10 m (35 feet)
Wingspan: 2.5 m (9 feet)
Diameter: 0.9 m (3 feet)
Launch weight: 4,000 kg (8,800 lbs.)
Speed: Mach 3.5
Range: 300 - 700 km (185-435 miles)
Guidance: Active radar or anti-radar homing
Warhead: 1000 kg (2,200 lbs.) high explosive or 350 kT nuclear


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PostPosted: 05 Dec 2012 20:14 
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Manish_Sharma wrote:
In answer to CJ 10 if we were to use Kaveri as engine for a cruise missle, what kind of range and payload it'll be able to take?


Answered in the Indian Missiles Thread. Lets take up any discussions on this issue there.

vasu raya wrote:
Vivekji, during the incident where an IAF pilot refused to Yuvraj on a Mi-17 in bad weather conditions in the NE area, the question came up on the how the supposedly state-of the-art for all weather flying Merlins would fare, you said that the Merlin didn't need high-altitude performance since its for VVIPs only, in the recent Italian investigation on the Augusta-Westland sales the same issue came up, an initial requirement was for 6500m and after the single vendor situation was scaled down to 4500m(?), something the Merlin could manage, so whats really the motive? bad Specs or vested interests?


Answered in the Indian Military aviation thread for direct relevance.

-Vivek


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PostPosted: 05 Dec 2012 23:15 
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Sir,

Where are Rafale? LCA? Mirage 2000? Mig 27.

Also don't see Bofors or others artillery guns.

use of BPJ is missing. In defensive roles parties are not using mines, heavy/medium machine guns, mortar??

etc

Nevertheless the scenarios are well written.


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PostPosted: 05 Dec 2012 23:50 
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VKumar wrote:
Sir,
Where are Rafale? LCA? Mirage 2000? Mig 27.

Rafale and LCA are not inducted/operational in the time-frame depicted. M2k and Mig-27 have made appearances in the scenario.


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 00:59 
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VKumar wrote:
Where are Rafale? LCA? Mirage 2000? Mig 27.
Also don't see Bofors or others artillery guns.
use of BPJ is missing. In defensive roles parties are not using mines, heavy/medium machine guns, mortar??


They are all there in the scenarios but a lot of them are mentioned in passing because of the need to maintain a flow to the scenario and not to get bogged down for each scene. I assume that the readers will accept that these units/platforms/weapons are being deployed and used as they are supposed to even if not singled out specifically. For example, the artillery guns are mentioned in earlier posts for the Ladakh sector, the Mirage-2000s and Mig-27s are used in several battles, the BPJ are mentioned at the beginning of the scenario for the spec ops missions and other minor stuff are discussed as well. I posted earlier about the time-line of the scenario and hence why units such as Nirbhay, Rafale etc are not in service and why, for example, only handful of LCHs were being rushed into combat.

-Vivek


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 09:25 
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DAY 9 + 0440 HRS (L)

CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION
MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE COMPOUND
BEIJING, CHINA


“And where is our fleet now?” Chairman Peng asked the PLAN commander Admiral Huaqing. The bald, old man latter was standing in his service’s new digital combat fatigues patterned similar to the US Navy. It was his personal symbol of connection with the Rear-Admiral commanding the naval flotilla as it steamed into harm’s way. This sentiment was echoed by Generals Chen and Wencang, the air-force commanders as well as the Army commanders. By comparison, the party leaders in the room were in their standard coats and ties.

As Huaqing walked over to the large wall map of the Indian Ocean region, Chen leaned back in his chair as he considered the environment. Well lit and with large red ornaments galore, the large conference room epitomized to him the distance that existed between the leaders of this country running an empire and living like emperors while the common soldiers were dying at that very moment thousands of kilometers away at the periphery of the said empire. He found himself momentarily disgusted seeing what existed around him. He saw his peers from the Army sitting around him, listening to the Admiral as he outlined where the fleet was and what the plans were. Chen knew the credentials of the men around him. Very few had reached here on the basis of their skills as combat leaders and competent field commanders. Most had thicker files on charges of corruption than their career-service-vitae. Most had amassed vast wealth as a result of the military-industrial empire that each ran in his domain. And every single one of them had that one thing in common: they were loyal party followers to the core.

Why else would they be here? No. The correct statement was: how could they have come here otherwise?
For that matter, why am I here? I should have been shot! Stripped of my command in the middle of war: was there anything more disgraceful? Perhaps it was indeed better to be shot!
And yet, I find myself in the company of these men with a ringside view as the war spirals out of control. Well, at least if I have to die, I will have one last pleasure of seeing many in this room accompany me…


And many indeed had. Chen noticed the replacement Generals on the Army side of the military that had taken place in this room in the last week of the war. War had a cleansing effect on the CMC. Most of the peacetime money-launderers and party dogs had been tested in combat, failed as expected against the professional Indian military forces and paid for it with their lives. The ungrateful party leaders had not shed a tear for them either. They had to go and the party had to survive. The fate of so many in this room now depended on professionals like Chen and Feng and others to ensure that they still held on to power when the war ended.

But the problem was that such replacements during war came at a price. Losing battles at weed out incompetent commanders was about as expensive a way to do so as possible. And China could not afford such lost battles. Chen understood the sentiment of the party leaders on this. His own air-war had been pulled from under his feet by his subordinate commander at Kashgar, Major-General Zhigao, during the first two days of the war before Chen had been forced to take over command and install Colonel Feng in to try and recover the damage. Zhigao was typical of the senior Generals in the Chinese military that had never fought a war in their lifetime and had more experience dealing with milking the existing military-industrial money making machine rather than sharpening the edge of the military combat assets under their command.

So he had been relieved.
And shot…on personal recommendation of Lt-General Chen and with willing endorsement from General Wencang at the Junwei Kolgjun…

The same went for General Jinping, a close relative of the former CMC chairman. He had been held responsible for the devastating reversal of the air war and had paid the price for it with his life. Unlike Major-General Zhigao, however, Jinping’s demise had been hidden from the public out of consideration for his past party credentials and also his high rank inside the CMC. So General Wencang, the deputy commander under Jinping, had taken over the PLAAF as acting commander.

Chen leaned back in his chair and looked past the line of Army Generals sitting across the table from him, their heads pointed away towards the Admiral and his talk. He wondered whether the reason Wencang had brought him here was because he needed real combat leaders advising him now, or whether he needed someone who would show him the loyalty he needed in return for pulling Chen away from the sights of a firing squad.

Perhaps a little of both…Chen speculated. And certainly in the current atmosphere of reversals on the battlefield, it would not take much for Wencang to find himself facing an execution squad on the same bloody floor tiles where his predecessor’s blood had drained just a little while ago. The party leaders were turning to their real selves under these trying times, and their outlet for their frustration lay on the military commanders…

But how were commanders in this room expected to make the right decisions under these stressful conditions? When they did not know whether the next bullet would come from the enemy or from an execution squad made up of their own soldiers?

The answer to these questions was difficult at best, as Chen realized. But as his gaze moved down the line of Army officers to where the three senior commanding Generals of the 2ND Artillery Corps sat, stoically listening to the discussion on Naval operations, Chen realized that those three officers had survived the purifying wartime purges suffered by the army and air-force officers. Not that they were any cleaner than the rest, just that they remained untested in combat thus far. Chen shuddered internally to think of what combat experience meant as it applied to that particular Corps of soldiers…

By the time anyone found out that their plans did not work, everybody would long be vaporized in a flash of fire and gravel. So perhaps that is where the confidence of the men from the 2ND Artillery came from. They knew that theirs was an endgame force. If they won, they would be honored for their victories and the other Generals in this room chastised for their failings in conventional combat. However, if they failed, there would be no-one left to complain about it…

“…and what of the losses we suffered when the Indian ships sank our commercial ships? How did that happen? Who is responsible for that embarrassing defeat?” Peng asked the Admiral as Chen pulled himself out of his thoughts and leaned forward at his end of the table to listen in. He saw Huaqing visibly lose blood from his cheeks as he speculated on the answer to that question in his mind.

“And is it also not true that not only have the Indians sunk our commercial shipping convoy, but are now going further up the Arabian sea to find and destroy individual ships as well? What is the naval task-force we sent to the Bay of Bengal doing about it?” another party official asked pointedly at Huaqing. Wencang gave a look to Chen as both men realized the isolated position the navy commander found himself in. Nobody else in this room would dare say anything to support him for risk of losing their own heads in the process.

“The naval task-force is maneuvering to engage. We received communications from the commander that he is being trailed by Indian long-range patrol aircraft from the south. Our satellites confirm that the bulk of the Indian naval force centered on their single aircraft-carrier is now about to enter within range of the supersonic missiles onboard our fleet combat ships. Once they lose their carrier, we will take their naval force apart,” Huaqing finally said. Somehow Chen and the others found the statements devoid of conviction.

But who can blame the poor ba$tard… Chen thought. Besides, what else was he going to say? What could he say? That our ships are going to get slaughtered in combat just like the two supposedly state-of-the-art Frigates we lost with the commercial convoy? That the only reason the Indian fleet commander has not engaged is because he is luring our force into a combat setting of his choice and conditions and not the other way around?
That despite everything, our navy is still not suited for long-range expeditionary combat?
The man may be have lost all the hair on his head, but not his willingness to live.
Or his sanity for that matter


“Admiral, I certainly hope you are right for all our sakes,” Lt-General Liu, the commander of the 2ND Artillery Corps, stated authoritatively. “If our navy cannot secure our maritime lines of commerce, we will be left with little choice but to force an end to this war while we still have control…”

“Surely we are not in as dire a situation as losing control of this war, General? I mean, fo…” the vice-party chairman was stopped in mid-sentence by Liu with a raised hand:
“I meant control of this country, comrade. Not the war. For now the people are listening to our broadcasts and news and our control of the external media availability within the borders of China has been effective. Do not expect that to continue when the people find out that their supplies of oil, gas and other commodities is being cut back or reduced. If that were to happen, we would have riots throughout the countryside and a revolt outside this building within hours, not days!”

“What are our reserves for fuel and other imported commodities? For the war, I mean,” Peng asked the room.

“The armed forces are sufficiently armed and equipped with quantities of fuel for another thirty days of combat given the declining rate of combat intensity at the border and the corresponding usage of fuel-oil as well as accounting for attrition of our reserves in the Tibet region to Indian air attacks,” one of the PLA Generals in the room read out from his papers. Liu grunted his retort as he leaned forward on the table:

“This war will not last days, forget about weeks! Fact remains that incompetency on behalf of many in this room has left us little hope for victory at this time and we must accept this fact! And the thirty days of fuel for the PLA comes from taking it away from local reserves as well as strategic economic reserves. We may have enough fuel for ninety days for our economy to run, but it takes a lot longer to replace the vast commercial ships that are being picked off by the Indians as we sit here and discuss and glorify tactical advances that are meaningless! Meaningless!”

Chen saw everybody in the room in uniform shift uncomfortably in their seats on hearing General Liu’s words. But Liu was not finished…

“We have now committed eight more divisions of men to the land war in the Tibet region. Tibetan rebels are already nipping at our heels, sensing our weakness. So are the nationalists on that accursed island that is like a thorn embedded within our skin that will not heal. And what of the Americans and the Japanese: how long before they sense our weakness and begin taking actions in support of the nationalists? Make no mistake: our neighbors stand waiting for us to become weak before they take advantage of it. We must not allow it to happen. The Indians have begun to wage total war on us by attempting to destroy our post war economy by sinking our commercial fleet. Either we must do the same to their fleet by taking control of the seas or ensure that their commercial fleets have no use when their entire industry has been burnt to ashes!”

Wencang put his pen down and looked straight at Liu, finally having heard enough of a tirade against the conventional force commanders.

“And what of the Indian response, Liu? Do you think the Indians will simply stay quiet as we nuke their cities and their economy to rubble? If I remember my last intelligence update from your men, the Indian strategic forces units were already deployed for combat, were they not? When they see our missiles heading for the sky, what do you think they will do? Our human intelligence suggests that these units are now equipped with their nuclear payloads and also that the Indian Ballistic Missile submarine is no longer visible at their docks! Presumably it’s already on patrol under the seas armed with nuclear-tipped missiles for which we have no counter simply because we cannot find them. Our submarines have not been able to break the Indian control of the Malacca straits to allow any threat to their nuclear submarine. Would you rather we lose everything we have built over the last sixty five years to be lost just so that we can do the same to the pathetic Indian economy? I am sorry, comrade, but I value our country and its economy far more than I do theirs. It will not be a worthy trade. Ever!”

“You have a better plan, Wencang? If you and your worthless predecessor had done their jobs correctly, we wouldn’t even be in this situation right now! You lost control of the skies above the battlefield that contributed directly to the reverses we have suffered in the week since!” Liu shouted back.

“I do have a plan! I have already shown you it works! Give me control of the rest of the missile stocks being held back in reserve by your 821 Brigade and I will take care of this once and for all. Only nine missiles have been used so far and we have already disabled two major Indian airbases and stalled their plans for a ground offensive into our territory in the autonomous region. Give me the rest of that Brigade and I will terminate Indian aerial presence over the battlefield once and for all when I take away the rest of their strategic airbases. Without those, their land forces will have to fight without decent air cover just as our eight fresh Divisions hit them right in the face!”
“Don’t forget the Pakistanis…” Chen reminded Wencang and Liu. Wencang nodded and then turned back to face Liu:

“Ah yes! Those fools! What the hell are they waiting for? Call them up and get them to start mobilizing their ground forces. They have enough forces to ensure the Indians can’t bring in too many reinforcements to any given front to force a breakthrough. Let the damned Indians fight a two front war! Let’s see how long they last under that pressure after we have already terminated a good portion of their strength in the air and on the ground. This is what the Pakistanis have always wanted, haven’t they? Fine! Get them into the fight then! Why should they get to sit this one out while we shed blood on the battlefields? Those ******** have leeched from us long enough. Time for them to return the favor! You wanted my plan, Liu: this is my plan!”

Wencang said and leaned back in his chair as he grabbed a bottle of water from the table. Liu’s face reflected a mask of pure anger. His eyes told Wencang there would be consequences to this tirade when the dust had settled down. Wencang was not intimidated, however. For now, both men realized they had to get along else both of them would find in trouble with the only man commanding more authority than them in the room: Chairman Peng.

“Well, General Liu? Do you have an objection to this?” Peng asked calmly.

“As much as I admit I appreciate General Wencang’s thoughts and candor, I have to say that I cannot give him the rest of 821 Brigade. It is an essential part of our first strike missile force and is indispensable. Even the launchers and missiles we ended up using are causing us to reevaluate our strike options,” Liu said finally.
“If the plan works, we will not need that strike option, General,” Peng reminded the commander of the 2ND Artillery Corps.

“Believe me, comrade chairman. If General Wencang’s plan succeeds, we will need our first strike capability more than ever. The Indians will only be pushed so much before they, and not us, are forced to resort to the nuclear option. And then, we will be caught flat footed,” Liu said and looked over as Wencang leaned forward yet again:

“Am I expected to believe that with more than two hundred missiles deployed and ready in Tibet, sucking up my precious remaining airborne radars and fighters to protect them, you still cannot guarantee a sufficient deterrent against an Indian attack? Am I hearing this right?”

Liu’s face flushed with anger and Chen saw the danger of pushing him into a corner, but he could not visibly restrain Wencang now. They had to present a unified front else their argument would stand no chance…

“You can hear whatever you like! I am telling you that we will be tasked to launch a crippling first strike sooner rather than later, regardless of whether we take out the Indian airfields or whether we get the Pakistanis to start a ground war along their border with India.” Liu responded back instantly.

But the conversation was terminated as Chairman Peng leaned back into his seat and expressed his thoughts on the matter…

“That is quite enough! We must fight the enemy in his house, not bring the hate into our own. We will do what we must to ensure that China as a nation must survive. And for that to happen, we must survive. All of us, in this room must continue to maintain control to allow a sense of unity to prevail over the people outside of this room and through to the vast reaches of China. General Wencang, if General Liu is unable to give you control of the 821 Brigade, I am sure he has his valid technical reasons as I am also sure that you will find an alternative to achieve the results you desire with other resources available to our military. We have the utmost confidence in your abilities to do so. As far as Pakistan is concerned, I agree that it is time for them to enter this war. If nothing else, they will weaken our enemy and allow us to deliver a final blow to reverse the course of this war on the battlefields.

"As is often the case, for the queen to survive, the pawns must fall…”


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 11:29 
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So , pakistan is going to fall so that CPC could survive. Not bad but what makes the CPC think that the inbred paki fauji qaum will fall for it . pakis will sell their musharraf rather than face crippling missile strikes and see their lordship over the poor abdul ghazis end in misery.

If pakis try to enter the chinese war , i think the american eagle and russian bear will tear apart its musharraf so badly that it won't be able to use it as any further source of income.IIRC , the paki fauj regularly soils its salwar at the very thought of 500 prithvi missiles ready to send them to their raisins.

Anyways , it's interesting to find out whether pakis are ready to be the game .


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 12:15 
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In such a situation unless india were really weakened the pakis would drag their feet and mobilize very slowly and openly, citing various constraints like war on terror. Through track2 even encourage india to make a nuclear threat so they can wring their hands and so nothing

Pa only fights for itself.

Cheen has already exhibited the same thing in kargil...leaving the pakis out to dry.


Last edited by Singha on 06 Dec 2012 15:09, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 13:35 
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Gentlemen, it is becoming really interesting now, since the reverse in air and land war in Tibet has taken the yellow sh#t by theirs nerves. Now anxious to see our response which can bring the house of cards down.

Vivek ji, take my salute for this great writing, simply mazaa aa gaya


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 17:00 
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^^^

The Indian response to the TSP entering the scene should be to test one Nuke, showing just how much damage the PRC will have to endure.

Take the gloves off, so to speak.


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 20:12 
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Vivek ji,

Can you pls indicate our aircraft losses so far? How many MKIs, Jaguars and Migs we have lost so far?

Based on below news item India should have ~150-200 Prithvis and may be 200-300 Brahmos at the time of this military scenario. Are they sufficient to face a two-front war?

Quote:
NEW DELHI: With Pakistan rapidly moving towards enlarging its missile arsenal with China's help, India is slowly but steadily stepping up production of Prithvi surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, as well as BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles.

Sources said facilities were now in place to produce around 20 Prithvi missiles every year, while the annual production rate of BrahMos missiles is geared towards touching 50 in the near future.

In 2006-2007, for instance, Hyderabad-based defence PSU Bharat Dynamics Limited for the first time managed to produce 15 full-fledged Prithvi missiles and four training missiles, apart from 18 warheads, said sources.


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 21:08 
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Pakistan would be foolish to even fall for this. But they are serving two paymasters Cheeni and Amirkhan .

In between India and China , if Pakis try to attack India what would be US response as major arsenal of Napakis are from them.

Are they going to limit them to conventional warfare? Let the region , emerging powerhouse of the world i.e. Asia, remain unstable? That could be Amirkhan thinking??

What could be Nuclear threshold for them as India could pulverize them by Missiles in no time.

Are Cheenis thinking that instead of they nuking India let napakis and Indics do it to each other and they bloody well survive as a nation??

We must make it clear that if Pakis get into the war and if threat of nuke is seen from Pakis side Beijing would be first target.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 01:11 
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I honestly believe the Eagle or Bear even bother to get into this mess to punish Pakis.

I agree with Singha ji on this. Pakis will try to show 72 reasons why they cannot move fast enough. I wont be surprised if they ask their brothers in NW China to start some fires of their own.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 02:27 
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I guess Porkis would not be silent. They might take these alternative steps (but would stop short of making a nuclear mess):

1. Activate sleeper cells to attack Mumbai, Delhi, oil and defense installations. They can deny or blame NSA and escape outright punishment (ala Mumbai) and later convince Chinese of their efforts and utility of jihadis.
2. Activate firingsome forward attacks on LOC and IB posts (even without provocation this is their favourite time pass)
3. Warn India of nuclear summer and winter incase India keep making further LOC attacks :roll: and atrocities on minorities of India (and stop at just that warning).

Although this might not be sufficient to force a military defeat on India nut would have sufficient nuisance value (esp 3) to force Indian leaders in making conciliatory noises. However if the leaders call the porki bluff at right time then..... Nothing substantial will happen except open mobilization (well covered in porki press) to impress their intent upon us. And ONLY if they find India sufficiently weakened will they attack full scale.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 08:29 
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Singha wrote:
In such a situation unless india were really weakened the pakis would drag their feet and mobilize very slowly and openly, citing various constraints like war on terror. Through track2 even encourage india to make a nuclear threat so they can wring their hands and so nothing


True. PAF already withdrew from their aggressive patrolling when PLAAF lost their initial battles.
Get the western fleet to do a blockade of Karachi, ala Kargil.
Send PN a couple of photographs of what PLAN looks like at the bottom of the sea.

Get Uncle to tell them what makes them think they can win when their Super-power bro is reeling under attacks.

--Ashish


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 10:06 
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I dont think India will needlessly provoke TSP during a cheen war by doing stuff as blockading karachi. but yes , psyops like footage of the burning and sinking of cheen ships could always be given to TV channels and the message will be clear.

Uncle, with an eye to the long term would not like to see TSP get drawn into the quagmire. he will advise caution and to wait this one out to friends in the PA top brass.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 11:30 
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Quite so. There is no need to provoke another war.
Handling the Lizard is a task big enough.

The point being made was that we do not need nukes to bring Pakistan to its knees.
A blockade of Karachi would presumably be as effective as it was earlier.

Uncle could be reminded of the fact that a weakened China is in Uncle's interest given their latest Asia pivot.
They would do well to rein in their favorite Munna.

--Ashish


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 11:35 
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Well..after 3 defeats and the entire population of TSP awaiting endlessly to try one more time to prove that they are sons of their mothers!..I would assume that they would enter the war.
If uncle or russi's so far have not done anything to stop the war between the two super-powers, then they wouldn't stop the pakis as well..
Considering that porkis existence is coz of the chinese, they would have to oblige.

Chinese have long thought that Indian's think too highly of themselves and when the arch & traditional-rival starts a war, they assume that we will retaliate with overwhelming numbers. If the reserve Indian missiles/men/tanks/aerial assets are diverted, it would give the Chinese time to regroup and maneuver in for the chinese version of "devastating blow", thus taking care of Genreal Wencang's concerns.

So, assuming that:
- The countries involved (India, China) have the will to continue the war
What would stop the Indians from fighting? or what would stop the chinese from fighting?
Will it be the ability to sustain and enforce the war (home grown MI complex?) be the deciding factor?

Either ways, it looks like we have to hit exceptionally hard in the mainland and it seems the IN would play a decisive role in the final phases of the war (scenario and real as well!).

The scenario also throws an imp angle, India needs true friend(s) who would stand by in times like these. Do we have a policy in place to make a friend or we just have a non-aligned, hands off policy like earlier.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 11:58 
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Does cheen and tsp have a mutual defence binding treaty like nato that compels them to enter the fight if either is attacked by a third party?
I think not, the cheen are far too clever to fall for that bait.

So tsp entering the war preemptively would need a good reason to justify it in public, to their army ranks as well. The avg shalwar clad pindi chanda fed ghazi cares a rats arse about his rice n pork eating birader stuck in chumbi valley. Its gotta have a religious ring, plus the promise of loot and pillage with a spot of rape on the side to enthuse the pa, the tribal levies and assorted miscreants to rouse themselves and rally to the cause...same approach used by islamic raiders to rally and cement their forces before invading the nw channel. A good brand slogan would ..amritsar is only 35km away, lets capture it, burn the harmandir sahib to the ground, loot the rich bazaars like our ghazi ancestor nadir shah looted chandni chowk for 3 days, bring home 10000 camel loads of booty, violate lakhs of kafir women, basically loot and cart off everything not welded to the ground.....1948 jk all over again. Imo india should let them gather and then detonate a 5 kt tactical nuke high in the space 150km above pindi as a warning sign.

Perhaps a huge series of bomb blasts in lahore and karachi with 1000 kia to be blamed on india, perhaps a big fire in some leading mosques with pork meat being found .....if you have a hat to hang on the ghaznavid crusade, any peg will do.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 14:25 
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Quality and realism of this scenario can be gauged by just the fact that posters are discussing it as if it were really happening. Brilliant.
Anyhow, I don't remember reading anything about Indian deployments on Paki border. IMO, Pakis will take advantage of such a war to do something like they tried in 1999 and 1947. Even the mango abdul on the street will be creaming his salwar at such an opportunity. Pakis have always counted on external interference to get away with their misadventures and they've succeeded too. Now their mortal enemy is already weakened and they will try their best to grab at something. Pakis getting involved is only a matter of when, not how or why.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 14:35 
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If Pak joins the conflict we should be in position to handle it as i believe Vivek has not mentioned that GOI has moved Western assets to be engaged in China...

Its a reality that China can't engaged all its inventory against India due to various conflict zones it has madly opened in past; and same applies for India as it has to handle Pak also...

Same way if Pak will try to use this situation as his enemy is weaken; china's other rivals will also use this opportunity as they know China is weak... Its not a War anymore - its a Chess game and one who moves quickly; smartly and strategically will call it Check-Mate...


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 14:38 
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taking advantage of the cheen navy being tied up, perhaps some nations can again squat on the numerous reefs that cheen calls her own. that would drive peking batnuts for sure.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 23:53 
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What Jamie say may be possible. Unkil may not stop Pakis from entering . But they might not allow nuclear threshold to reach . What could be the tolerance before we breach paki threshold . If we are pulverising pakis as I think would happen (with conventional warhead carrying missiles) and with fewer areas to cover that threshold would be reached quickly. Hence we need to bring China into this ambit and China should be told in no undertain terms that the limit for strike on beijing would be dictated by paki threshold. That may force them to restrain Pakis

Scenario mentions only one IAC operational. So what is the impact of China succeeding in taking out the IAC??
We should still be able to enforce Malacca blockade. Arihant or Chakra should be enough to deter China from misadventure as they would be in striking range with a short flight time.

Bhutan front needs quick breakthrough. I think better logistics infrastructure would not be detrimental to us but would enable quick mobilization. Govt should accelerate the development.

The point to be considered is if China would strike with missiles into Bhutan and eastern sector when Indian forces take some territory or advance on Lhasa, Nayingachi and Xigaze .

BTW , whats happening on DBO area.

Nothing on Kunming and Chonqing or Chengdu so far.

Where are you Vivek. We are having withdrawal symptoms. Please post post.


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PostPosted: 08 Dec 2012 04:45 
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Vivek ji...

You are becoming asuric by enjoying other's pain. Please post the next chapter.


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PostPosted: 08 Dec 2012 05:57 
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Take a look at the nasa earthlight pic of east asia on google images for countervalue targets.

In tibet , sinkiang, gansu, inner mongolia...the only points of light are kashi, lhasa, urumqi...the rest is one vast dark territory akin to siberia. No point touching these minorities and beaten down people. In the rest of chinese mainland, again the sw quadrant is a vast dark territory except a flat huge bowl among the mountains with chengu and chongqing as the pivots. Kunming capital of yunnan looks a lot smaller and anyway yunnan is mostly minority ethnics iirc. So these two megacities in sichuan seem to be the only countervalue targets within 1200km of ne india in entire cheen.

Only if we expand the radius to around 2000km lots of juicy targets on the scope.

So this is one clear advantage they have. They can nuke dilli by lobbing a 600km srbm from tibet but there,s no such targets in similar range from our border.


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PostPosted: 08 Dec 2012 05:57 
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Take a look at the nasa earthlight pic of east asia on google images for countervalue targets.

In tibet , sinkiang, gansu, inner mongolia...the only points of light are kashi, lhasa, urumqi...the rest is one vast dark territory akin to siberia. No point touching these minorities and beaten down people. In the rest of chinese mainland, again the sw quadrant is a vast dark territory except a flat huge bowl among the mountains with chengu and chongqing as the pivots. Kunming capital of yunnan looks a lot smaller and anyway yunnan is mostly minority ethnics iirc. So these two megacities in sichuan seem to be the only countervalue targets within 1200km of ne india in entire cheen.

Only if we expand the radius to around 2000km lots of juicy targets on the scope.

So this is one clear advantage they have. They can nuke dilli by lobbing a 600km srbm from tibet but there,s no such targets in similar range from our border.


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PostPosted: 08 Dec 2012 07:00 
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RamaY wrote:
Vivek ji...

You are becoming asuric by enjoying other's pain. Please post the next chapter.


Sorry about the delay. Just spent the last day moving my residence across 200 miles. I am told the net will be online at 8 am tomorrow! :(
Posting from phone right now. Will make up for lost time as soon as Internet becomes available to me.


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PostPosted: 08 Dec 2012 14:17 
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Vivekji. Thanks for the great stuff so far. But have reached a state equalling withdrawl symptons :(( . Look forward to your posts tomorrow.
:)


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PostPosted: 08 Dec 2012 15:30 
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Singha wrote:
Take a look at the nasa earthlight pic of east asia on google images for countervalue targets.

In tibet , sinkiang, gansu, inner mongolia...the only points of light are kashi, lhasa, urumqi...the rest is one vast dark territory akin to siberia. No point touching these minorities and beaten down people. In the rest of chinese mainland, again the sw quadrant is a vast dark territory except a flat huge bowl among the mountains with chengu and chongqing as the pivots. Kunming capital of yunnan looks a lot smaller and anyway yunnan is mostly minority ethnics iirc. So these two megacities in sichuan seem to be the only countervalue targets within 1200km of ne india in entire cheen.

Only if we expand the radius to around 2000km lots of juicy targets on the scope.

So this is one clear advantage they have. They can nuke dilli by lobbing a 600km srbm from tibet but there,s no such targets in similar range from our border.

Asymmetry is quite obvious even if one looks at G Earth Chacha. . Kashgar is also ethnic minority but India has taken action against military targets. Similarly Chengdu is more juicy from indian perspective where lot of military and infra items are available. There would be enough collateral damage aka Tawang but could be justified as this is the main hub controlling supplies to Indian war front. Next could be Chongqing. That is when both warring parties decides to remain conventional. If nuke option is exercised by them , we have all their top cities in sight. Remember what dr Saraswat said about Latest Agni V test. And Ari and Chakra should be enough of deterrent as of now in the time line indicated by vivek.


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PostPosted: 08 Dec 2012 19:55 
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DAY 9 5:52 IST
Somewhere in Central India


Noise of brisk braking could be heard far away but this was not the main concern for Vivek Ahuja. He had to make sure that all the boxes were brought in ASAP. He had no time to waste. Workers were busy bringing boxes and cleaning the house. Vivek Ahuja glanced at his Rolex..........6:19. He walked up to the window that opened eastward giving him clear view of cluster of huts occupied by Tibetans. He could feel the day break. Sun about to rise above the horizon. He was thinking about next post he is going to post on BR. Hundreds of Brites in Delhi, Banglore, Mumbai, SF, New York , London , Paris, Kabul,Pindi and Beijing are waiting for his posts. Suddenly he remembered something. He was looking for boxes marked "K". He had to find those boxes and set the contents immediately. No. there were no desktops or laptops there. The contents were kitchen utensils. SHQ will be there any moment and cooking range has to be functional ASAP.
The door bell rings............


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and Hu was there...


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