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PostPosted: 02 Dec 2012 09:34 
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Sounds more like a Chinese variant of the scam called Ponzi scheme applied to territory similar to muslim invasions of yore where they used to convert the conquered ones so that they can be co-opted in the follow on conquests in an ever expanding empire, in so much the Caliphate idea has its believers on our western border even today and defending it for the Ummah brotherhood or Jihad


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PostPosted: 02 Dec 2012 12:44 
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Johneeg post was a master class in clearly explaining in layman terms the crux of cheen strategy on land. People should save it and share it in other threads.


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PostPosted: 02 Dec 2012 14:19 
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Excellent post Johnjee. Beautifully explained chinese (National strategy).


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 04:08 
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Well articulated comments and excellent discussion from all posters here. You seem to have extracted that thread of strategic theory around which the scenario was built on. :)

johneeG wrote:
If they bomb the area that they are claiming, then their claim will become invalidated and they will also lose face.


Continue this thought. Take the theory you have excellently extracted to its logical conclusion.

I described in the scenario where the Chinese DO go ahead and strike Tawang. And it ends up giving them tactical successes by delaying the Indian ground offensive in the sector about to be launched north of Bum-La and into Tibet while also extracting heavy casualties on the citizens of Tawang. If Tawang were removed completely from the strategic analysis, this attack would be seen an effective, albeit brutal, military strike.

Now ask yourself this on the basis of the above: Why would the Chinese do that? if the long term strategic theory for the Chinese when it comes to AP has always been to keep the Indians on the defensive by putting forth a fictitious claim on it, under what conditions would Tawang (and perhaps other tracts of AP) lose their strategic use to them? In other words, if AP was used as a buffer to push the arguments over land south and away from their annexation of Tibet, at what point and under what conditions would these areas lose that usability as a buffer?

Just a thought experiment, if you will. :)

-Vivek


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 04:53 
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johneeG wrote:
This doctrine also indicated that the chinese will give up their periphery when the mainland is threatened. So, there is ample chance for Tibet to be taken out of China's grip. China will be ready to take huge loses in periphery rather than tiny loses in thew mainland.
Fits perfectly well, with the middle kingdom centric thought process of the Han, for centuries now. It has always perturbed me that our arguments with China are around the mcMahon line, where we are the one clamoring for its recoginition and China is the one seen as asking for more. For a change, we should agree with the Chinese the McMahon line is not the border and India's borders lie with "historical" India's cultural borders. Watch the Chinese squirm at this. Meanwhile do ensure we have a couple of additional strike corps available in the area to take the battle to Tibet. But, until this capacity is not built, it really does not matter what we say or do, the CPC will sit pretty, knowing fully well that they are in control of Tibet already.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 07:37 
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DAY 9 + 0220 HRS (L)

THE BATTLE OF DOTANANG-BARSHONG
FIVE KILOMETERS NORTH OF DOTANANG VILLAGE
NORTHERN BHUTAN


The valley was lit by the moonlight broken up with a few clouds. But it was quieter tonight that in the entire last week. The damped man-made thunder coming from the Chumbi valley had died away in the last several hours as the battered Chinese 149TH Infantry Division had disengaged and withdrawn along the S-204 route to the north of the Dochen Tso, effectively yielding the Chumbi valley vegetated regions to the Indian Army units that had led the 33 Corps offensive several days ago. The Indian forces were now consolidating their hold in those sectors while the Chinese 13TH Group Army did the same around the Dochen Tso as well as their left flank elements that were now entrenched in northwestern Bhutan. In the latter sector, the Indian forces under General Potgam were leading an independent offensive with a collection of Special Forces units, airborne units and surviving Bhutanese forces. But time was of the essence as the 15TH Airborne Corps had begun sending elements of its three Divisions via the ground route into southern Tibet. The three organic Divisions of this elite Corps were to replace three battered Divisions of the 13TH Group Army as they conducted a passage of lines around Gyantse in southern Tibet. Once there, one of the three fresh Divisions now entering combat, the 43RD Airborne was preparing to enter Bhutan while the 44TH and 45TH Airborne Divisions were to head south and engage the Indian forces inside the Chumbi valley while the 149TH Infantry Division was withdrawn from combat altogether.

The arrival of the 43RD Airborne as reinforcements for the single Highland Brigade in northern Bhutan could not be tolerated. And while the IAF was doing its best to ensure that the 15TH Airborne Corps would endure heavy casualties during its transit to the south, the 33 Corps of the Indian Army was preparing for a heavy fight as the Chinese attempted to take back what they had lost in the Chumbi valley sector.

In Bhutan, this meant that the lone Highland Brigade and its two surviving Battalions, one north of Dotanang and the other at Barshong, had to be destroyed before their reinforcements arrived and seized the initiative from Indian forces. But the advance was not going to be easy, as Colonel Misra was finding out. The Chinese had started fighting more rigorously for some reason. Perhaps they had been told that there was to be no retreat. Either way, his forces including the 11TH Para-SF Battalion and light mechanized infantry platoons had fought their way to Dotanang and seized the village without much of a fight: the PLA infantry units had simply withdrawn to the north just as his forces had reached the southern end of the village. A tactical withdrawal that had been conducted professionally, as Misra had noted after reviewing his company commander reports. So now the Dotanang was in Indian hands. But anything north from there was not. That was to be changed tonight…


*****

…the valley became abuzz with noise as a single Nishant unmanned drone flew over the moonlit village of Dotanang. The moonlight reflected somewhat from the handful of BMP-IIs parked on the narrow muddy roads of the village. As it flew north, it followed the path of the snow-covered road along the small river that went north to south along the bottom of the Dotanang valley. It had advanced a good five kilometers north of the village when flashes of light suddenly erupted all around the drone and lines of tracers flew by. The valley suddenly reverberated with rapid succession thud-thud-thud noises as the airspace around the drone was lit up with shrapnel. The drone crew at Haa Dzong to the south initiated evasive maneuvers and the drone banked to the side and began to turn south while climbing higher; To no avail: the skies around it were rippled with shrapnel. Several of these ripped through the wings and perforated the fuselage section and the undercarriage. The drone broke up under the impacts and disappeared inside a small fireball before a trailing smoke on its way down into the mountain side…

*****

… “Oops! There goes our eye in the sky!” Vikram noted from his position, two kilometers from the north of where the drone went down. The tracers and explosions from the anti-air artillery fire stopped as the wreckage from the Nishant drone slammed into the trees a few kilometers north of the village and a column of smoke rose into the starlit sky. The valley went quiet once again.

“So now we know the Chinese have some radar-directed anti-air weapons north of here,” Ravi noted dryly over the team’s comms as he tucked in his INSAS rifle tighter into his chest. He heard a grunted agreement over the comms.

“Yeah, no shit! We could have used that information five minutes ago,” Captain Pathanya said while he lowered his binoculars and keyed his comms: “Vik, get the IMFS out and see if you can spot the location of the Chinese guns that fired on our bird. Their tracer rounds gave us a pretty clear idea where they were on the road about two clicks northerly. Let’s confirm it.”

“Roger that, boss. Deploying IMFS now,” Vikram said and pulled back from the set of boulders he was using as a cover. He put his rifle on the ground and motioned to Sarvanan to cover his zone while pulled down his backpack and removed the Integrated-Multi-Function-Sight or IMFS from it. The second generation of the new IMFS allowed them a combination of IR, Low-Light and standard optical modes with magnification and laser designation built in. It looked like a high-tech binoculars because it was exactly that. But it was also substantially heavier than the standard military binoculars that Pathanya preferred for most operations. Here and now, they needed intelligence that they could not get from a UAV flying overhead anymore.

“Okay commies, let’s see what you have down there,” Vikram said to himself as he crawled over the cold snow covered boulders on his stomach and set up the IMFS. As expected, the optical and low-light did not help much over the forested areas. He switched to IR and the depressed the button for W-Hot so that all high temperature sources were shaded down from white on the sights. As a result, the background valley became black with shades of dark gray. The 4x4 wheeled anti-air vehicles now being used by the Highland Brigade against the Indian UAV threat were lit up immediately as white and very-light gray shades. The brightest white coloration showed the engine areas of the vehicles and the blazing hot barrels of the 35mm guns on the back of the chassis that had ripped the Nishant UAV into shreds. Vikram let out a slight whistle as he watched the view…

“Boss, the commies have brought in some vehicle based support for their light-infantry units. I count two light-armor 4x4s with anti-aircraft guns on the back, still glowing hot from the fire we saw. I also see several other light-utility vehicles and what looks like a single 6x6 armored vehicle with a strange turret on top. Can’t make out the make but it is not a gun turret. Possibly anti-air vehicle as well,”

Pathanya looked over to Ravi with a raised eyebrow as they heard Vikram’s IMFS observations.
“Looks like our friends have been busy to the north,” Ravi noted quietly.

“Well, we did the same back in Thimpu. Didn’t expect them to sit around while we built up our strengths, did you?” Pathanya replied back calmly. It was true. While General Potgam and Colonel Misra had used their hold on Thimpu to bring in reinforcements and supplies for the offensive to retake northern Bhutan, the Chinese had done as much as they could to ensure that the Indians could not retake territories under their control. So now they had some very effective short-range-air-defense or SHORAD battery deployed against Indian UAVs.

“God knows what else has been brought in,” Ravi said out just before the SATCOM R/T squawked.
“Spear, this is Warlord-Central. Do you read?”

Pathanya removed his chest mounted speaker set for the SATCOM and pushed it through his woolen cap and to his ears before pressing the send button:
“Roger that, Warlord-Central. Spear-One reading you five-by-five, send traffic. Over”
“Spear-One, we lost an aerial drone near your location. Can you confirm?”

“Roger, Warlord. Spear has eyeballs on the crash site. We also confirm presence of what appears to be a SHORAD battery deployed with the Highland Brigade positions two click north of us. Over”

There was silence for several seconds on the other line. Pathanya looked over to Ravi and shook his head.
This was not good…

“Roger, Spear-One. Can you engage and eliminate threat at this time?”

“Uh…negative, Warlord. I repeat: we are two clicks away from target and do not have Intel on surrounding enemy defensive lines. Suggest we move close for recon,” Pathanya suggested. There was some confusion on the other side until the voice was much clearer and far more authoritative:

“Spear-One, this is Warlord-Actual. Be advised, we have reason to believe further reinforcements from Chinese airborne units underway to reinforce Chinese Bhutan presence. We are out of time. We cannot wait for further intel-gathering operations. The Paras will advance on schedule. I will not deploy any more RPVs to your area until that anti-air battery is dead. Hotel-Six will provide indirect fire support for the Paras and is not available. And all available friendly air is being directed north to prevent the arrival of these reinforcements to the battle-zone. So no chance to finesse this one: you are authorized to advance to contact and eliminate the commie anti-air battery immediately. I have a replacement RPV on standby once you send the all-clear. Get it done, son. Warlord out,” Lt-General Potgam’s voice was like a breath of fresh air for Pathanya and his men. He may have been sending them into combat but he was unhesitant about it and had a sense of confidence in their abilities. It gave his men the jolt of electricity they needed…

Pathanya looked around after stowing away the comms and keyed his team:
“Vik, get us a good fix on the red battery vehicles. The rest of you, form up on me and let’s figure how we are going to take this down...”

*****

….An hour later and three kilometers down south, the village at Dotanang was abuzz with activity as the Indian Paratroopers moved. The three BMP-II engines roared to life and spewed out bursts of engine smoke as they did so. The auto-cannon turrets moved left and right as the gunners checked their optics and targeting systems. As the Paras moved out of the northern outskirts, advancing along the eastern edge of the river and moved north, the three BMP-IIs splashed on the mud-snow slush and began advancing up the road.

Further south, near a clearing around the northern outskirts of Thimpu that was being used as an advanced helipad by the Paras, two Rudra helicopters remained parked on the snow-covered grass, their engines switched off and their flight crews standing around with open cockpit doors. There was no way in hell they would be given the go ahead to advance up the valley in support of the offensive until that Chinese Yitian SHORAD battery remained active. As the army-aviation major commanding these two helicopters stood around with frustration, the skies above rippled with rocket fire as Hotel-Six battery got into action. The Paras had run into contact with Chinese defenses…

*****


…The valley behind the Chinese lines was being continually lit up as each rocket explosion hit the slopes on either side of the road in the center of the valley. Pathanya advanced down the slope and through the bushes with deliberate slow movements. He pushed aside branches of trees that got in his way with one hand while holding the rifle in the other. His low-light goggles remained strapped to his eyes and he was experiencing regular flare-out as explosions far to the south at the battle being waged ruined his night-vision.

He and six others of Spear-One were moving down the slope and towards the road that lay below at the base of the valley. They were now close enough that they could hear the PLA officers shouting in Chinese to their men as they ran south to join the battle with the Indian paratroopers. He could also see the squad sized patrols on either side of him that were trying to climb up the same slope that he was descending on. But Spear ensured that they bypassed these men with a good margin. Surprise was the key here, especially when there were hundreds of Chinese soldiers in this valley and under a dozen men inside Spear Team.

They simply could not afford to get into a firefight.

Of course, there was a danger of being spotted by Chinese optics as well. They had deployed several observation posts with men equipped with tripod mounted high-frequency radars and IR scopes. Vikram had spent quite some time locating these positions and Pathanya had come up with an ingress path that would allow them to move within the blind-spots in the views of these teams. There was only one such position that they could not bypass on their way out. So Vikram and Ravi had branched off during the descent from the top of the valley and had headed around the back of the three man Chinese observation post that had its orientation to the south, towards the raging battle. Vikram pulled out his combat knife and nodded to Ravi. The latter lowered his rifle and pulled out his knife as well. As he handled it into position, it glistened in the moonlight. Ravi smiled at that and nodded back to Vikram.

By the time the PLA Lieutenant commanding the observation team heard the slight rustle of branches in the snow behind, Vikram leaped over and grabbed the man by his head, covered his mouth with his hand and shoved the large blade into his back and twisted it. The man’s eyes grew large with the pain and Vikram pushed the knife in again, this time draining the life out of the Chinese officer. It happened in under a second, during which time Ravi had done the same with the Chinese Signals NCO attempting to set up a tripod stand for a communications antennae. The third soldier had been looking through a binoculars at the battle to the south and by the time he heard the muffled thuds around him and turned to look, he saw the body of his commanding officer being pushed aside by a dark faced Indian soldier wielding a blood soaked combat knife. The Chinese soldier panicked at the sight and fell back on his hands, struggling to find his weapon and his face a mask of pure horror. Vikram gathered his strength and dove into his opponent, stabbing him in the gut while reaching for his mouth with his hand. He got there just a split-second later than he had planned, allowed a half-muttered shriek to go out into the valley around…

The Chinese soldiers and the Yitian vehicle crews standing around the on the valley floor below suddenly jerked at the distant shriek, and the battery commander, a Lt-Colonel, came running out from around the Yitian vehicle to look at the observation post on the hill side with his binoculars. He spotted the two Indian soldiers as they finished off the remainder of the team up there and then turned around to shout orders for his men...

A three round burst of INSAS fire ripped through his chest and he fell back on the muddy road, still clasping the binoculars and his other arm still pointed to the men he was ordering. His orders died mid-sentence.

The suddenness of it all seemed to halt the passage of time as all of the stunned Chinese soldiers looked around at the body of the Lt-Colonel now lying on the road and with blood pouring from his chest.

Then there was a series of continuous rifle bursts from the nearby bushes and boulders a few dozen meters away up the slope on the side of the road. Several Chinese soldiers fell to the ground as bullets ripped through their winter uniforms. Then they scrambled in all directions to find cover and return fire. The vehicle crew of armored Yitian began clambering to the top of their vehicle and into the hatches so that they could move the vehicle out of danger. Pathanya spotted the gunner and the driver attempting to get inside their vehicle and turned his INSAS slightly and fired a continuous burst. Bullets ricocheted off the metallic hull of the vehicle with distinct pings and sparks went flying in all directions. The gunner shouted in agony and his lifeless body fell on top of the vehicle, just a few inches away from the opening of the turret. The driver, however, managed to get inside and close the hatch above him before Pathanya could reload another magazine…

Damn! Damn! Damn!

Pathanya thought to himself as he dropped the empty magazine of his rifle and slapped a new one in there just as the boulders all around him began to get hit with Chinese rifle fire. His team was returning fire a well and dropping Chinese soldiers quickly, but there were a lot of them to the north and south and it wouldn’t take them long to get here. This had to be taken care of quickly. He looked over the top of the boulder he was on and keyed his comms:

“Vik, Ravi: Driver of armor vehicle inside turret. Engage! Engage!”

“Roger that! Engaging!”

Further up the slope, Vikram and Ravi had finished disabling all of the Chinese optics on the observation post and put their knives away. Ravi had taken out his rifle and got behind the rocks to take aim from above the Chinese forces engaging the rest of Spear Team below. Vikram grabbed Ravi’s backpack and grabbed the RPG-22 shoulder fired anti-armor weapon. He flipped the safety and extended the telescopic tube to full length, locked it and set it up on his shoulder. From this range, he could aim manually. He took a couple of seconds during which he noted that the Yitian driver had started the diesel engines and the vehicle was spewing out engine smoke. As the vehicle rumbled forward, the Chinese soldiers fell behind to take cover behind its armor. The vehicle pulled out of its parking and turned towards Pathanya’s men just as the rocket fired by Vikram slammed into its frontal armor and exploded amidst a smoke filled fireball that rose above and vanished, leaving large licks of flame rising into the sky, illuminating the valley for several hundred meters in all directions with a yellow-orange hew…

Vikram keyed his comms for the team:
“Target destroyed!”

Ravi was now cleared to open fire just as Vikram threw away the disposable launcher and grabbed his own rifle. Both men opened up with short bursts of fire that caught the exposed Chinese soldiers in a cross-fire from the front and top. They retreated behind the cover of the remained two 4x4 trucks while one of the remaining crews clambered on top of the 35mm gun turrets, attempting to turn them on the attackers. Pathanya noted the elevation of the gun turret and keyed his comms instantly:

“Vik! Ravi! Get out now! Incoming fire!”

The Chinese gunner opened up a moment later and the large caliber weapon fire ripped through the trees and branches in between and slammed into the boulders formerly occupied by their own observation team. The explosions were powerful enough to shred the rocky cover, filling the air with flying rocks and gravel as Vikram and Ravi scrambled out of the post and into the trees on either side. The 35mm cannon fire decimated what remained of the Chinese optics at the post in a matter of seconds. But the large muzzle flashes of the guns prevented the gunner from observing the effect of his fire and so he treated it as an area fire weapon: shredding tree trunks all around causing a lot of branches and snow to come crashing down the slope. The thunderous noise of the gunfire removed all coherence from both the Indian and Chinese sides.

Pathanya crouched back behind the boulder and removed a grenade from his belt-holster and hoisted it inside the tube of his rifle barrel mounted grenade launcher. He nodded to Sergeant Sarvanan and both men raised their heads over the boulder with their weapons. Sarvanan put the tripod of his INSAS LMG on the rocks and let loose a full barrage of covering fire that sent the Chinese soldiers diving for cover. An instant later Pathanya elevated his rifle upwards and pulled the trigger of his UBGL, firing the grenade on a depressed trajectory to its target. The grenade hit the base of the 35mm gun turret and exploded in a metal-on-metal explosion that sent splinters flying in all directions and left the Chinese gunner riddled with bleeding wounds on his seat. The anti-air gun turret was thoroughly disabled…

“Spear-One to Warlord-Actual! Anti-air threat destroyed! I say again: Red anti-air guns are dead in the water! My team is taking heavy fire from multiple azimuths! I need help over here! Send in the cavalry on my location right freaking now!” Pathanya shouted over the R/T as he lowered himself back behind the rocks. Sarvanan continued to blaze away with his LMG in a standing position next to him.

“Roger that! Hang in there! Cavalry on way! Warlord-Central out!”

*****

…The army-aviation Major nodded as heard the R/T call from Colonel Misra and then waved at the three other pilots standing by their helicopters and all of them ran over and started climbing into their cockpits at the advanced helipad in the northern outskirts of Thimpu. A few moments later the turbine engines spooled up and the main rotor blades began rotating and gathering speed…

*****

…Bullets smacked into the rocks and Sarvanan dived back behind rocks where Pathanya was slapping in another full magazine round for his rifle. Pathanya chambered the round and then looked around before facing Sarvanan:

“Okay, our jobs are done. We need to get out of here right away. We can’t go up the slope under this murderous fire or we will be shredded to pieces. Command is sending in the cavalry. We definitely don’t want to be here when they arrive. So that gives us a few minutes. Ideas?”

“Few, if any,” Sarvanan noted neutrally. He and Pathanya shared a look and then he smiled as he got into standing pose behind the boulder. He got his LMG tripod placed and got back into action, releasing bursts of fire in quick succession. Pathanya rolled around the side of the rocks and in prone position began picking off Chinese soldiers coming down the road from Barshong in response to the fighting. He saw three soldiers drop under his well-aimed bursts before a light-utility vehicle pulled up and the Chinese soldiers took up positions behind and started returning fire, churning up the ground around Pathanya with bullet impacts. He could not return fire after a few moments on account of the massive volume of fire pinning him behind the rocks.

And then he heard a new sound as a line of tracers whipped overhead and slammed into the Chinese utility vehicle, shredding its chassis into fragments and raising a dust cloud all around as the tracers bounced off the road and the side of the hills into arbitrary directions. The gunfire pinning Pathanya down instantly stopped. He jerked back to crouched position and dared to poke his head above the rocks and saw the smoke and dust clearing where the Chinese utility vehicle had been and saw a wrecked vehicle, spewing black smoke and half a dozen dead bodies nearby. Other Chinese troopers were taking cover behind the trees and rocks and returning fire into the sky…

One of the Rudra helicopters suddenly flew overhead as it fired its chin-mounted 20mm cannon and released a quartet of fin-stabilized rockets before pulling up aggressively. The latter smashed into the rocks and trees on either side of the road and several tree trunks collapsed on the road, throwing snow and dust in the air. Pathanya had just enough time to mutter an “Oh shit!” before the other helicopter riddled the remaining parked vehicles of the Chinese Yitian battery with a barrage of rockets. The trees above the road on the other side of the valley opened up with over a hundred flashes as a Chinese infantry company reinforcing the battered Chinese Battalion here came over the ridge. The air filled with rifle bullets and the second Rudra helicopter took multiple hits with Pathanya and the rest of Spear team hearing the definitive snags and thumps on the fuselage of the helicopter…

“This is Sierra-Two taking heavy Chinese small arms fire on peaks east of the river! We are hit and are hit and I have dead co-pilot in here. I am bringing this bird out of the fight. Sorry Spear-One, but I am RTB on emergency! Good luck down there!”

Pathanya grabbed his R/T as quickly as he could: “Roger Sierra-Two! Thanks for the assist! We will take it from here! Spear out!”
He saw the helicopter fly over the top of the peaks behind him at high speed and withdraw from the fight. He then turned to Sarvanan who had his binoculars out and observing the ridgeline on the opposite side of the river…

“What do you see?”
“Reinforced Company sized force making its way down to the road. Guess they must be from the Battalion at Barshong,” Sarvanan said as he squinted his eyes to make out the enemy force.

“We cannot stay here,” Pathanya said and was about to grab his team comms when the R/T squawked again:
“Warlord-Central to Spear, do you copy?” Pathanya fumbled with his comms but managed to sort it out:
“Roger, Warlord. Spear-One here”
“Spear-One, expect retreating Chinese infantry force to the south moving up to your position. Para commander confirms his force is seeing a break in the Chinese lines. You will be bumping into these forces imminently. Get out of there now,” the R/T voice said. Pathanya instantly motioned for Sarvanan to get the rest of the men together and to move out up the slope before they were faced with enemy forces from the west, north and south…
“Roger that, Warlord! Spear is disengaging! We are out of here!”

*****

…Further south, the surviving pair of BMP-IIs rushed down the road as they advanced north, cutting across the trees and vegetation with their auto-cannons while the Paras ran alongside to keep up and provide infantry cover. Hotel-Six battery fire now turned its attention to the HQ of the Highland Brigade at Barshong. The Chinese Battalion line between Dotanang and Barshong had been broken, and what had emerged was a bitter running fight between the last surviving reinforced Battalion of the Chinese Highland Brigade and the 11TH Indian Para-SF Battalion for control of the peaks of Northern Bhutan…


Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 03 Dec 2012 23:10, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 10:59 
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I think this song fits the mood



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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 11:42 
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I think india needs to keep a close eye on the versions and production rates of the cj10 long sword family. It gives them a very convenient long range strike option without using ballistic missiles. Hence very tempting to use. Yunnan is one continuous mesh of north south mountains and hills ( see articles on the tea horse road) ... Telars will be nearly impossible to track in that maze..as also low flying glcm which mask their approach by flying low....first warning ground based radar or aerostats will get is when they crest the last of these ranges and slide down into eastern assam....20-30 mins away from vital targets.

In scenario case, rather than flying all the way into tibet they could have struck same targets by just flying into someplace in yunnan for a launch area.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 21:31 
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Dumb thoughts (No smileies/ridicules are allowed :evil: )

Assuming Chinese military has a more efficient MIC, they would/should buildup LRCMs like long-sword. Also assuming that ONLY THEN can make unprovoked and unexpected military escalations, they should sanitize all major air-fields at-least 1000km within Indian Territory in the first day of any future Indo-China war using these LRCMs and then throw a missile or two every day. Assuming India has 10-15 bases in this area, we are talking about 60 LRCMs on day1 and 10-20 missiles per day after that.

This alone will ensure that IAF cannot operate their superior airforce from these bases. This will take out any qualitative/quantitative/geographical superiority IAF has in this area. Without strong IAF presence, PLA can achieve its goals.

Assuming IAF pulls back into more secured bases in heart land uses a combination of mid-air refueling etc., this means lesser range for IAF into China's logistic centers in Tibet.

***

This also explains why Pakistan is a dead animal as far as Indo-Pak wars are concerned.

All India has to do is identify known military targets (Air Fields, MIC, Air-defense radars, radar/missile sites, concentrated military clusters etc.,) in the range of 100-200

1. dispatch 3 brahmos per site on Day 1- 600 units
2. dispatch 1 brahmos per day on major air-fields and TSPA clusters - 100 items per day

By day 5 India can enforce a no-fly-zone all over Pakistan.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 21:59 
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Er these missiles are subsonic and big. Akash spyder or any radar guided aa guns should be ablevto target albeit at short range. Some will leak in.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 22:19 
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that would be the III tier or another tier to defense against CM,UCAV or UAV,attack choppers,etc,etc.....

Probably akash-II or variant of astra(like spyder) or Iron Dome in future...


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 22:32 
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RamaY sahab,
Pakistanis, in their own words, lack strategic depth. :mrgreen: Unlike India, majority of their military installations as well as industrial and population targets can be wiped off in 1-2 days of air and missile strikes. Same thing is not possible for Indo-China war due to hardware constraints on Chinese side and larger area of India and difficult border terrain. I don't think that Chinese are that rich or have that many friends to afford such attention on India

Vivek_Ahuja
This scenario is getting more interesting with every post. Loved the last one.

Gurneesh
Another Ensiferum fan, eh.? What about playing Wind Rider too while you are at it ?


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 23:06 
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Awesome posts Vivek! Just one teeny-tiny nitpick.
Quote:
One of the Rudra helicopters suddenly flew overhead as it fired its chin-mounted 30mm cannon

Rudra has the same 20mm Nexter turret as the LCH.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 23:10 
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nachiket wrote:
Awesome posts Vivek! Just one teeny-tiny nitpick.
Quote:
One of the Rudra helicopters suddenly flew overhead as it fired its chin-mounted 30mm cannon

Rudra has the same 20mm Nexter turret as the LCH.


Oops. That was a typo. I fixed it in the post. Thanks for bringing that to my attention.


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PostPosted: 03 Dec 2012 23:16 
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vivek_ahuja wrote:
..Crew fatigue and insufficient backup reserves (IAF case especially given the squadron numbers and pilot deficiencies) add to the above. Bottom line is that it is my firm opinion that the IAF is not geared for long duration, high-intensity war at this present time. We need a lot more airborne radars, dual ground and flight crews to allow rotations and rapid turn-around times (similar to the other IAF: Israel), larger stocks of weapons rather than the piddly amounts we seem to purchase in every deal...


Absolutely. Even this scenario, since it takes place in the future, assumes that the we have several of the CABS AEW's flying around alongside the 3 (6?) Phalcons. As of today, that is still in testing leaving us with only 3 Phalcons. There doesn't seem to be any move to buy more Phalcons either, after some initial noises. The scenario also takes into account the higher numbers of MKI's that we'll have 2-4 years down the line. If a chinese attack as described here were to happen today, the air war would go significantly worse for us.

Another area of concern is the lack of large orders for PGMs, including Sudarshan kits.


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PostPosted: 04 Dec 2012 04:00 
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Singha wrote:
I think india needs to keep a close eye on the versions and production rates of the cj10 long sword family. It gives them a very convenient long range strike option without using ballistic missiles. Hence very tempting to use. Yunnan is one continuous mesh of north south mountains and hills ( see articles on the tea horse road) ... Telars will be nearly impossible to track in that maze..as also low flying glcm which mask their approach by flying low....first warning ground based radar or aerostats will get is when they crest the last of these ranges and slide down into eastern assam....20-30 mins away from vital targets.

In scenario case, rather than flying all the way into tibet they could have struck same targets by just flying into someplace in yunnan for a launch area.


In answer to CJ 10 if we were to use Kaveri as engine for a cruise missle, what kind of range and payload it'll be able to take?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GTRE_GTX-35VS_Kaveri#Design

Quote:
General characteristics
Type: afterburning turbofan
Length: 137.4 in (3490 mm) = 11ft 3 in
Diameter: 35.8 in (910 mm) = 2ft 11 in
Dry weight: 2,724 lb (1,235 kg)


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PostPosted: 04 Dec 2012 07:57 
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Vivekji, during the incident where an IAF pilot refused to Yuvraj on a Mi-17 in bad weather conditions in the NE area, the question came up on the how the supposedly state-of the-art for all weather flying Merlins would fare, you said that the Merlin didn't need high-altitude performance since its for VVIPs only, in the recent Italian investigation on the Augusta-Westland sales the same issue came up, an initial requirement was for 6500m and after the single vendor situation was scaled down to 4500m(?), something the Merlin could manage, so whats really the motive? bad Specs or vested interests?


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PostPosted: 04 Dec 2012 08:12 
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The kaveri is way too big and powerful to be a cruise missile engine unless you want a massive soviet era ks6 kingfish type missile as big as a plane.


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PostPosted: 05 Dec 2012 20:06 
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Singha wrote:
The kaveri is way too big and powerful to be a cruise missile engine unless you want a massive soviet era ks6 kingfish type missile as big as a plane.


Is it this one?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KSR-5#Variants
Quote:
The Raduga KSR-5 (NATO reporting name AS-6 Kingfish) was a long-range, air launched cruise missile and anti ship missile developed by the Soviet Union. It was essentially a scaled down version of the Raduga Kh-22 'Kitchen', built to be carried by the less capable Tu 16.

Specifications

Length: 10 m (35 feet)
Wingspan: 2.5 m (9 feet)
Diameter: 0.9 m (3 feet)
Launch weight: 4,000 kg (8,800 lbs.)
Speed: Mach 3.5
Range: 300 - 700 km (185-435 miles)
Guidance: Active radar or anti-radar homing
Warhead: 1000 kg (2,200 lbs.) high explosive or 350 kT nuclear


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PostPosted: 05 Dec 2012 20:14 
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Manish_Sharma wrote:
In answer to CJ 10 if we were to use Kaveri as engine for a cruise missle, what kind of range and payload it'll be able to take?


Answered in the Indian Missiles Thread. Lets take up any discussions on this issue there.

vasu raya wrote:
Vivekji, during the incident where an IAF pilot refused to Yuvraj on a Mi-17 in bad weather conditions in the NE area, the question came up on the how the supposedly state-of the-art for all weather flying Merlins would fare, you said that the Merlin didn't need high-altitude performance since its for VVIPs only, in the recent Italian investigation on the Augusta-Westland sales the same issue came up, an initial requirement was for 6500m and after the single vendor situation was scaled down to 4500m(?), something the Merlin could manage, so whats really the motive? bad Specs or vested interests?


Answered in the Indian Military aviation thread for direct relevance.

-Vivek


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PostPosted: 05 Dec 2012 23:15 
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Sir,

Where are Rafale? LCA? Mirage 2000? Mig 27.

Also don't see Bofors or others artillery guns.

use of BPJ is missing. In defensive roles parties are not using mines, heavy/medium machine guns, mortar??

etc

Nevertheless the scenarios are well written.


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PostPosted: 05 Dec 2012 23:50 
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VKumar wrote:
Sir,
Where are Rafale? LCA? Mirage 2000? Mig 27.

Rafale and LCA are not inducted/operational in the time-frame depicted. M2k and Mig-27 have made appearances in the scenario.


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 00:59 
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VKumar wrote:
Where are Rafale? LCA? Mirage 2000? Mig 27.
Also don't see Bofors or others artillery guns.
use of BPJ is missing. In defensive roles parties are not using mines, heavy/medium machine guns, mortar??


They are all there in the scenarios but a lot of them are mentioned in passing because of the need to maintain a flow to the scenario and not to get bogged down for each scene. I assume that the readers will accept that these units/platforms/weapons are being deployed and used as they are supposed to even if not singled out specifically. For example, the artillery guns are mentioned in earlier posts for the Ladakh sector, the Mirage-2000s and Mig-27s are used in several battles, the BPJ are mentioned at the beginning of the scenario for the spec ops missions and other minor stuff are discussed as well. I posted earlier about the time-line of the scenario and hence why units such as Nirbhay, Rafale etc are not in service and why, for example, only handful of LCHs were being rushed into combat.

-Vivek


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 09:25 
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DAY 9 + 0440 HRS (L)

CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION
MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE COMPOUND
BEIJING, CHINA


“And where is our fleet now?” Chairman Peng asked the PLAN commander Admiral Huaqing. The bald, old man latter was standing in his service’s new digital combat fatigues patterned similar to the US Navy. It was his personal symbol of connection with the Rear-Admiral commanding the naval flotilla as it steamed into harm’s way. This sentiment was echoed by Generals Chen and Wencang, the air-force commanders as well as the Army commanders. By comparison, the party leaders in the room were in their standard coats and ties.

As Huaqing walked over to the large wall map of the Indian Ocean region, Chen leaned back in his chair as he considered the environment. Well lit and with large red ornaments galore, the large conference room epitomized to him the distance that existed between the leaders of this country running an empire and living like emperors while the common soldiers were dying at that very moment thousands of kilometers away at the periphery of the said empire. He found himself momentarily disgusted seeing what existed around him. He saw his peers from the Army sitting around him, listening to the Admiral as he outlined where the fleet was and what the plans were. Chen knew the credentials of the men around him. Very few had reached here on the basis of their skills as combat leaders and competent field commanders. Most had thicker files on charges of corruption than their career-service-vitae. Most had amassed vast wealth as a result of the military-industrial empire that each ran in his domain. And every single one of them had that one thing in common: they were loyal party followers to the core.

Why else would they be here? No. The correct statement was: how could they have come here otherwise?
For that matter, why am I here? I should have been shot! Stripped of my command in the middle of war: was there anything more disgraceful? Perhaps it was indeed better to be shot!
And yet, I find myself in the company of these men with a ringside view as the war spirals out of control. Well, at least if I have to die, I will have one last pleasure of seeing many in this room accompany me…


And many indeed had. Chen noticed the replacement Generals on the Army side of the military that had taken place in this room in the last week of the war. War had a cleansing effect on the CMC. Most of the peacetime money-launderers and party dogs had been tested in combat, failed as expected against the professional Indian military forces and paid for it with their lives. The ungrateful party leaders had not shed a tear for them either. They had to go and the party had to survive. The fate of so many in this room now depended on professionals like Chen and Feng and others to ensure that they still held on to power when the war ended.

But the problem was that such replacements during war came at a price. Losing battles at weed out incompetent commanders was about as expensive a way to do so as possible. And China could not afford such lost battles. Chen understood the sentiment of the party leaders on this. His own air-war had been pulled from under his feet by his subordinate commander at Kashgar, Major-General Zhigao, during the first two days of the war before Chen had been forced to take over command and install Colonel Feng in to try and recover the damage. Zhigao was typical of the senior Generals in the Chinese military that had never fought a war in their lifetime and had more experience dealing with milking the existing military-industrial money making machine rather than sharpening the edge of the military combat assets under their command.

So he had been relieved.
And shot…on personal recommendation of Lt-General Chen and with willing endorsement from General Wencang at the Junwei Kolgjun…

The same went for General Jinping, a close relative of the former CMC chairman. He had been held responsible for the devastating reversal of the air war and had paid the price for it with his life. Unlike Major-General Zhigao, however, Jinping’s demise had been hidden from the public out of consideration for his past party credentials and also his high rank inside the CMC. So General Wencang, the deputy commander under Jinping, had taken over the PLAAF as acting commander.

Chen leaned back in his chair and looked past the line of Army Generals sitting across the table from him, their heads pointed away towards the Admiral and his talk. He wondered whether the reason Wencang had brought him here was because he needed real combat leaders advising him now, or whether he needed someone who would show him the loyalty he needed in return for pulling Chen away from the sights of a firing squad.

Perhaps a little of both…Chen speculated. And certainly in the current atmosphere of reversals on the battlefield, it would not take much for Wencang to find himself facing an execution squad on the same bloody floor tiles where his predecessor’s blood had drained just a little while ago. The party leaders were turning to their real selves under these trying times, and their outlet for their frustration lay on the military commanders…

But how were commanders in this room expected to make the right decisions under these stressful conditions? When they did not know whether the next bullet would come from the enemy or from an execution squad made up of their own soldiers?

The answer to these questions was difficult at best, as Chen realized. But as his gaze moved down the line of Army officers to where the three senior commanding Generals of the 2ND Artillery Corps sat, stoically listening to the discussion on Naval operations, Chen realized that those three officers had survived the purifying wartime purges suffered by the army and air-force officers. Not that they were any cleaner than the rest, just that they remained untested in combat thus far. Chen shuddered internally to think of what combat experience meant as it applied to that particular Corps of soldiers…

By the time anyone found out that their plans did not work, everybody would long be vaporized in a flash of fire and gravel. So perhaps that is where the confidence of the men from the 2ND Artillery came from. They knew that theirs was an endgame force. If they won, they would be honored for their victories and the other Generals in this room chastised for their failings in conventional combat. However, if they failed, there would be no-one left to complain about it…

“…and what of the losses we suffered when the Indian ships sank our commercial ships? How did that happen? Who is responsible for that embarrassing defeat?” Peng asked the Admiral as Chen pulled himself out of his thoughts and leaned forward at his end of the table to listen in. He saw Huaqing visibly lose blood from his cheeks as he speculated on the answer to that question in his mind.

“And is it also not true that not only have the Indians sunk our commercial shipping convoy, but are now going further up the Arabian sea to find and destroy individual ships as well? What is the naval task-force we sent to the Bay of Bengal doing about it?” another party official asked pointedly at Huaqing. Wencang gave a look to Chen as both men realized the isolated position the navy commander found himself in. Nobody else in this room would dare say anything to support him for risk of losing their own heads in the process.

“The naval task-force is maneuvering to engage. We received communications from the commander that he is being trailed by Indian long-range patrol aircraft from the south. Our satellites confirm that the bulk of the Indian naval force centered on their single aircraft-carrier is now about to enter within range of the supersonic missiles onboard our fleet combat ships. Once they lose their carrier, we will take their naval force apart,” Huaqing finally said. Somehow Chen and the others found the statements devoid of conviction.

But who can blame the poor ba$tard… Chen thought. Besides, what else was he going to say? What could he say? That our ships are going to get slaughtered in combat just like the two supposedly state-of-the-art Frigates we lost with the commercial convoy? That the only reason the Indian fleet commander has not engaged is because he is luring our force into a combat setting of his choice and conditions and not the other way around?
That despite everything, our navy is still not suited for long-range expeditionary combat?
The man may be have lost all the hair on his head, but not his willingness to live.
Or his sanity for that matter


“Admiral, I certainly hope you are right for all our sakes,” Lt-General Liu, the commander of the 2ND Artillery Corps, stated authoritatively. “If our navy cannot secure our maritime lines of commerce, we will be left with little choice but to force an end to this war while we still have control…”

“Surely we are not in as dire a situation as losing control of this war, General? I mean, fo…” the vice-party chairman was stopped in mid-sentence by Liu with a raised hand:
“I meant control of this country, comrade. Not the war. For now the people are listening to our broadcasts and news and our control of the external media availability within the borders of China has been effective. Do not expect that to continue when the people find out that their supplies of oil, gas and other commodities is being cut back or reduced. If that were to happen, we would have riots throughout the countryside and a revolt outside this building within hours, not days!”

“What are our reserves for fuel and other imported commodities? For the war, I mean,” Peng asked the room.

“The armed forces are sufficiently armed and equipped with quantities of fuel for another thirty days of combat given the declining rate of combat intensity at the border and the corresponding usage of fuel-oil as well as accounting for attrition of our reserves in the Tibet region to Indian air attacks,” one of the PLA Generals in the room read out from his papers. Liu grunted his retort as he leaned forward on the table:

“This war will not last days, forget about weeks! Fact remains that incompetency on behalf of many in this room has left us little hope for victory at this time and we must accept this fact! And the thirty days of fuel for the PLA comes from taking it away from local reserves as well as strategic economic reserves. We may have enough fuel for ninety days for our economy to run, but it takes a lot longer to replace the vast commercial ships that are being picked off by the Indians as we sit here and discuss and glorify tactical advances that are meaningless! Meaningless!”

Chen saw everybody in the room in uniform shift uncomfortably in their seats on hearing General Liu’s words. But Liu was not finished…

“We have now committed eight more divisions of men to the land war in the Tibet region. Tibetan rebels are already nipping at our heels, sensing our weakness. So are the nationalists on that accursed island that is like a thorn embedded within our skin that will not heal. And what of the Americans and the Japanese: how long before they sense our weakness and begin taking actions in support of the nationalists? Make no mistake: our neighbors stand waiting for us to become weak before they take advantage of it. We must not allow it to happen. The Indians have begun to wage total war on us by attempting to destroy our post war economy by sinking our commercial fleet. Either we must do the same to their fleet by taking control of the seas or ensure that their commercial fleets have no use when their entire industry has been burnt to ashes!”

Wencang put his pen down and looked straight at Liu, finally having heard enough of a tirade against the conventional force commanders.

“And what of the Indian response, Liu? Do you think the Indians will simply stay quiet as we nuke their cities and their economy to rubble? If I remember my last intelligence update from your men, the Indian strategic forces units were already deployed for combat, were they not? When they see our missiles heading for the sky, what do you think they will do? Our human intelligence suggests that these units are now equipped with their nuclear payloads and also that the Indian Ballistic Missile submarine is no longer visible at their docks! Presumably it’s already on patrol under the seas armed with nuclear-tipped missiles for which we have no counter simply because we cannot find them. Our submarines have not been able to break the Indian control of the Malacca straits to allow any threat to their nuclear submarine. Would you rather we lose everything we have built over the last sixty five years to be lost just so that we can do the same to the pathetic Indian economy? I am sorry, comrade, but I value our country and its economy far more than I do theirs. It will not be a worthy trade. Ever!”

“You have a better plan, Wencang? If you and your worthless predecessor had done their jobs correctly, we wouldn’t even be in this situation right now! You lost control of the skies above the battlefield that contributed directly to the reverses we have suffered in the week since!” Liu shouted back.

“I do have a plan! I have already shown you it works! Give me control of the rest of the missile stocks being held back in reserve by your 821 Brigade and I will take care of this once and for all. Only nine missiles have been used so far and we have already disabled two major Indian airbases and stalled their plans for a ground offensive into our territory in the autonomous region. Give me the rest of that Brigade and I will terminate Indian aerial presence over the battlefield once and for all when I take away the rest of their strategic airbases. Without those, their land forces will have to fight without decent air cover just as our eight fresh Divisions hit them right in the face!”
“Don’t forget the Pakistanis…” Chen reminded Wencang and Liu. Wencang nodded and then turned back to face Liu:

“Ah yes! Those fools! What the hell are they waiting for? Call them up and get them to start mobilizing their ground forces. They have enough forces to ensure the Indians can’t bring in too many reinforcements to any given front to force a breakthrough. Let the damned Indians fight a two front war! Let’s see how long they last under that pressure after we have already terminated a good portion of their strength in the air and on the ground. This is what the Pakistanis have always wanted, haven’t they? Fine! Get them into the fight then! Why should they get to sit this one out while we shed blood on the battlefields? Those ******** have leeched from us long enough. Time for them to return the favor! You wanted my plan, Liu: this is my plan!”

Wencang said and leaned back in his chair as he grabbed a bottle of water from the table. Liu’s face reflected a mask of pure anger. His eyes told Wencang there would be consequences to this tirade when the dust had settled down. Wencang was not intimidated, however. For now, both men realized they had to get along else both of them would find in trouble with the only man commanding more authority than them in the room: Chairman Peng.

“Well, General Liu? Do you have an objection to this?” Peng asked calmly.

“As much as I admit I appreciate General Wencang’s thoughts and candor, I have to say that I cannot give him the rest of 821 Brigade. It is an essential part of our first strike missile force and is indispensable. Even the launchers and missiles we ended up using are causing us to reevaluate our strike options,” Liu said finally.
“If the plan works, we will not need that strike option, General,” Peng reminded the commander of the 2ND Artillery Corps.

“Believe me, comrade chairman. If General Wencang’s plan succeeds, we will need our first strike capability more than ever. The Indians will only be pushed so much before they, and not us, are forced to resort to the nuclear option. And then, we will be caught flat footed,” Liu said and looked over as Wencang leaned forward yet again:

“Am I expected to believe that with more than two hundred missiles deployed and ready in Tibet, sucking up my precious remaining airborne radars and fighters to protect them, you still cannot guarantee a sufficient deterrent against an Indian attack? Am I hearing this right?”

Liu’s face flushed with anger and Chen saw the danger of pushing him into a corner, but he could not visibly restrain Wencang now. They had to present a unified front else their argument would stand no chance…

“You can hear whatever you like! I am telling you that we will be tasked to launch a crippling first strike sooner rather than later, regardless of whether we take out the Indian airfields or whether we get the Pakistanis to start a ground war along their border with India.” Liu responded back instantly.

But the conversation was terminated as Chairman Peng leaned back into his seat and expressed his thoughts on the matter…

“That is quite enough! We must fight the enemy in his house, not bring the hate into our own. We will do what we must to ensure that China as a nation must survive. And for that to happen, we must survive. All of us, in this room must continue to maintain control to allow a sense of unity to prevail over the people outside of this room and through to the vast reaches of China. General Wencang, if General Liu is unable to give you control of the 821 Brigade, I am sure he has his valid technical reasons as I am also sure that you will find an alternative to achieve the results you desire with other resources available to our military. We have the utmost confidence in your abilities to do so. As far as Pakistan is concerned, I agree that it is time for them to enter this war. If nothing else, they will weaken our enemy and allow us to deliver a final blow to reverse the course of this war on the battlefields.

"As is often the case, for the queen to survive, the pawns must fall…”


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 11:29 
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So , pakistan is going to fall so that CPC could survive. Not bad but what makes the CPC think that the inbred paki fauji qaum will fall for it . pakis will sell their musharraf rather than face crippling missile strikes and see their lordship over the poor abdul ghazis end in misery.

If pakis try to enter the chinese war , i think the american eagle and russian bear will tear apart its musharraf so badly that it won't be able to use it as any further source of income.IIRC , the paki fauj regularly soils its salwar at the very thought of 500 prithvi missiles ready to send them to their raisins.

Anyways , it's interesting to find out whether pakis are ready to be the game .


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 12:15 
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In such a situation unless india were really weakened the pakis would drag their feet and mobilize very slowly and openly, citing various constraints like war on terror. Through track2 even encourage india to make a nuclear threat so they can wring their hands and so nothing

Pa only fights for itself.

Cheen has already exhibited the same thing in kargil...leaving the pakis out to dry.


Last edited by Singha on 06 Dec 2012 15:09, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 13:35 
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Gentlemen, it is becoming really interesting now, since the reverse in air and land war in Tibet has taken the yellow sh#t by theirs nerves. Now anxious to see our response which can bring the house of cards down.

Vivek ji, take my salute for this great writing, simply mazaa aa gaya


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 17:00 
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^^^

The Indian response to the TSP entering the scene should be to test one Nuke, showing just how much damage the PRC will have to endure.

Take the gloves off, so to speak.


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 20:12 
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Vivek ji,

Can you pls indicate our aircraft losses so far? How many MKIs, Jaguars and Migs we have lost so far?

Based on below news item India should have ~150-200 Prithvis and may be 200-300 Brahmos at the time of this military scenario. Are they sufficient to face a two-front war?

Quote:
NEW DELHI: With Pakistan rapidly moving towards enlarging its missile arsenal with China's help, India is slowly but steadily stepping up production of Prithvi surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, as well as BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles.

Sources said facilities were now in place to produce around 20 Prithvi missiles every year, while the annual production rate of BrahMos missiles is geared towards touching 50 in the near future.

In 2006-2007, for instance, Hyderabad-based defence PSU Bharat Dynamics Limited for the first time managed to produce 15 full-fledged Prithvi missiles and four training missiles, apart from 18 warheads, said sources.


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PostPosted: 06 Dec 2012 21:08 
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Pakistan would be foolish to even fall for this. But they are serving two paymasters Cheeni and Amirkhan .

In between India and China , if Pakis try to attack India what would be US response as major arsenal of Napakis are from them.

Are they going to limit them to conventional warfare? Let the region , emerging powerhouse of the world i.e. Asia, remain unstable? That could be Amirkhan thinking??

What could be Nuclear threshold for them as India could pulverize them by Missiles in no time.

Are Cheenis thinking that instead of they nuking India let napakis and Indics do it to each other and they bloody well survive as a nation??

We must make it clear that if Pakis get into the war and if threat of nuke is seen from Pakis side Beijing would be first target.


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I honestly believe the Eagle or Bear even bother to get into this mess to punish Pakis.

I agree with Singha ji on this. Pakis will try to show 72 reasons why they cannot move fast enough. I wont be surprised if they ask their brothers in NW China to start some fires of their own.


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I guess Porkis would not be silent. They might take these alternative steps (but would stop short of making a nuclear mess):

1. Activate sleeper cells to attack Mumbai, Delhi, oil and defense installations. They can deny or blame NSA and escape outright punishment (ala Mumbai) and later convince Chinese of their efforts and utility of jihadis.
2. Activate firingsome forward attacks on LOC and IB posts (even without provocation this is their favourite time pass)
3. Warn India of nuclear summer and winter incase India keep making further LOC attacks :roll: and atrocities on minorities of India (and stop at just that warning).

Although this might not be sufficient to force a military defeat on India nut would have sufficient nuisance value (esp 3) to force Indian leaders in making conciliatory noises. However if the leaders call the porki bluff at right time then..... Nothing substantial will happen except open mobilization (well covered in porki press) to impress their intent upon us. And ONLY if they find India sufficiently weakened will they attack full scale.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 08:29 
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Singha wrote:
In such a situation unless india were really weakened the pakis would drag their feet and mobilize very slowly and openly, citing various constraints like war on terror. Through track2 even encourage india to make a nuclear threat so they can wring their hands and so nothing


True. PAF already withdrew from their aggressive patrolling when PLAAF lost their initial battles.
Get the western fleet to do a blockade of Karachi, ala Kargil.
Send PN a couple of photographs of what PLAN looks like at the bottom of the sea.

Get Uncle to tell them what makes them think they can win when their Super-power bro is reeling under attacks.

--Ashish


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 10:06 
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I dont think India will needlessly provoke TSP during a cheen war by doing stuff as blockading karachi. but yes , psyops like footage of the burning and sinking of cheen ships could always be given to TV channels and the message will be clear.

Uncle, with an eye to the long term would not like to see TSP get drawn into the quagmire. he will advise caution and to wait this one out to friends in the PA top brass.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 11:30 
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Quite so. There is no need to provoke another war.
Handling the Lizard is a task big enough.

The point being made was that we do not need nukes to bring Pakistan to its knees.
A blockade of Karachi would presumably be as effective as it was earlier.

Uncle could be reminded of the fact that a weakened China is in Uncle's interest given their latest Asia pivot.
They would do well to rein in their favorite Munna.

--Ashish


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 11:35 
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Well..after 3 defeats and the entire population of TSP awaiting endlessly to try one more time to prove that they are sons of their mothers!..I would assume that they would enter the war.
If uncle or russi's so far have not done anything to stop the war between the two super-powers, then they wouldn't stop the pakis as well..
Considering that porkis existence is coz of the chinese, they would have to oblige.

Chinese have long thought that Indian's think too highly of themselves and when the arch & traditional-rival starts a war, they assume that we will retaliate with overwhelming numbers. If the reserve Indian missiles/men/tanks/aerial assets are diverted, it would give the Chinese time to regroup and maneuver in for the chinese version of "devastating blow", thus taking care of Genreal Wencang's concerns.

So, assuming that:
- The countries involved (India, China) have the will to continue the war
What would stop the Indians from fighting? or what would stop the chinese from fighting?
Will it be the ability to sustain and enforce the war (home grown MI complex?) be the deciding factor?

Either ways, it looks like we have to hit exceptionally hard in the mainland and it seems the IN would play a decisive role in the final phases of the war (scenario and real as well!).

The scenario also throws an imp angle, India needs true friend(s) who would stand by in times like these. Do we have a policy in place to make a friend or we just have a non-aligned, hands off policy like earlier.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 11:58 
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Does cheen and tsp have a mutual defence binding treaty like nato that compels them to enter the fight if either is attacked by a third party?
I think not, the cheen are far too clever to fall for that bait.

So tsp entering the war preemptively would need a good reason to justify it in public, to their army ranks as well. The avg shalwar clad pindi chanda fed ghazi cares a rats arse about his rice n pork eating birader stuck in chumbi valley. Its gotta have a religious ring, plus the promise of loot and pillage with a spot of rape on the side to enthuse the pa, the tribal levies and assorted miscreants to rouse themselves and rally to the cause...same approach used by islamic raiders to rally and cement their forces before invading the nw channel. A good brand slogan would ..amritsar is only 35km away, lets capture it, burn the harmandir sahib to the ground, loot the rich bazaars like our ghazi ancestor nadir shah looted chandni chowk for 3 days, bring home 10000 camel loads of booty, violate lakhs of kafir women, basically loot and cart off everything not welded to the ground.....1948 jk all over again. Imo india should let them gather and then detonate a 5 kt tactical nuke high in the space 150km above pindi as a warning sign.

Perhaps a huge series of bomb blasts in lahore and karachi with 1000 kia to be blamed on india, perhaps a big fire in some leading mosques with pork meat being found .....if you have a hat to hang on the ghaznavid crusade, any peg will do.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 14:25 
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Quality and realism of this scenario can be gauged by just the fact that posters are discussing it as if it were really happening. Brilliant.
Anyhow, I don't remember reading anything about Indian deployments on Paki border. IMO, Pakis will take advantage of such a war to do something like they tried in 1999 and 1947. Even the mango abdul on the street will be creaming his salwar at such an opportunity. Pakis have always counted on external interference to get away with their misadventures and they've succeeded too. Now their mortal enemy is already weakened and they will try their best to grab at something. Pakis getting involved is only a matter of when, not how or why.


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 14:35 
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If Pak joins the conflict we should be in position to handle it as i believe Vivek has not mentioned that GOI has moved Western assets to be engaged in China...

Its a reality that China can't engaged all its inventory against India due to various conflict zones it has madly opened in past; and same applies for India as it has to handle Pak also...

Same way if Pak will try to use this situation as his enemy is weaken; china's other rivals will also use this opportunity as they know China is weak... Its not a War anymore - its a Chess game and one who moves quickly; smartly and strategically will call it Check-Mate...


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PostPosted: 07 Dec 2012 14:38 
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taking advantage of the cheen navy being tied up, perhaps some nations can again squat on the numerous reefs that cheen calls her own. that would drive peking batnuts for sure.


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