India and Japan: News and Discussion

[JE Menon]

Maybe they are getting serious finally. Solid amount though. Wonder what the terms are.

[Prem]

Japan and others want manufacturing Shift from China . Indian Manufacturing prowess will balance Chicom elite's adventurism.

http://www.economist.com/node/21560263
Manufacturing in India
The masala Mittelstand
Manufacturing is taking off in India. But not in the way many hoped

The foreign influx is not limited to Germans; and local suppliers benefit regardless. Three-quarters of VW’s parts are bought locally. Some foreigners are not really manufacturing but rather assembling imported parts to get around Indian customs duties. Still they use some Indian suppliers too—30-40% of Mercedes’s components are local. Indian champions are also prospering. Tata, a conglomerate, has been in Pune for decades and has a new plant assembling Land Rover cars. Bharat Forge, with $1.3 billion of sales, makes car parts, with 70% going abroad. Its boss, B.N. Kalyani, says local entrepreneurs are “doing a damn good job”.Industrial hotspots such as Pune, Chennai and the state of Gujarat are not the only evidence that manufacturing has momentum. India’s share of global merchandise exports has doubled to 1.5% since 2000 (but is still far below China’s 11%).
The next China, or more of the same?
Exports have shifted towards engineering products, which now make up a fifth of the total. Indian firms have become good at flogging everything from motorbikes to spare parts, particularly to Africa and the Middle East. And most have got fighting fit. Anil Gupta, the boss of Havells, a Noida-headquartered firm which makes electrical equipment, recalls visiting a vast Chinese factory in 2002: “It was a shock.” But now his firm has invested heavily and, he says, can hold its own.
Indian labour may even have grown relatively cheaper. A 2010 study by America’s Bureau of Labour Statistics found that, at just under a dollar an hour, labour costs (including social-security costs and taxes) were similar to China’s and just 3% of American levels. Since the data were collected the rupee has fallen by a third against the renminbi and a fifth against the dollar, making things even cheaper. And those data only included elite workers in the “official” sector—an unskilled labourer might get four dollars a day. Unadjusted for productivity, Indian labour is dirt cheap.
Of course scarce land, red tape, poor education and infrastructure, and onerous labour laws partly offset this. But optimists can point to a government policy, in place since late 2011, to create giant new special economic zones (SEZs) that deal with these problems.Japan, then South Korea, then China. Will India become the next workshop of the world? It is far too soon to crack open the champagne. For one thing, the state seems incapable of resolving bottlenecks, even through SEZs. Some 300km north-west of Pune lies Silvassa, part of a enclave governed by Portugal until 1954. It has long been lavished with tax breaks to attract industry and is controlled by the central government. Yet today it is notable for derelict factories and its trade selling grog to Gujarat, a dry state next door.What is happening in Pune is more sophisticated than epic feats of metal-bashing. While VW’s plant is more labour-intensive than its German equivalent, it still relies more on computers than humans. Local firms, such as Bharat Forge, have been shedding unskilled labour, investing in technology and building brands and distribution overseas. “Indian firms that are technology-focused are extremely successful,” says Mr Kalyani. But “commodity manufacturing is unsuccessful. It is the opposite of China…We have archaic labour laws. Nobody in their right mind is going to set up a plant employing 10,000 people.” His ambition is to make his firm another Siemens or General Electric.This fits a pattern. Even as high-end engineering boomed, manufacturing jobs dropped slightly between 2004 and 2010, to 50m. Basic industries that soak up labour, such as textiles and leathers, are in relative decline. India is at last getting good at making things—but not in quite the way its founding fathers envisioned. Visitors to the country’s industrial centres, such as Pune, can only marvel at the great leaps Indian firms and entrepreneurs are making. And worry about the consequences of another decade in which the country struggles to create jobs.

[SSridhar]

What the Japanese are doing is to first build the infrastructure in pockets where they are interested, before shifting the manufacturing out of China.

[SSridhar]

PM Revives N-energy Talks with Japan
An excellent time to do so now that the rare earths issue is settled. Japan would be obliged to reciprocate. On the whole, things are moving smoothly and rapidly in the right direction. The visit of the Japanese Air Force Chief to India is another sign of a deepening military engagement. So far, it was restricted to the coast guards and navies.

Sources said that Singh expressed hope before Noda that Japan would soon share its nuclear technology and expertise with India.

"PM Noda replied by saying that Japan wished to advance consultations in a constructive and cooperative manner," Japan's foreign ministry spokesman Masaru Sato told TOI. He added though that it wasn't possible to give any date for resumption of negotiations.

Sato said that Japan welcomed the signing of rare earth pacts between the two nations. It will allow Japan to import rare earth minerals, essential for its hi-tech industry, from India reducing its dependence on China which currently accounts for around 90% of supplies. "Diversification of supply sources is always a good thing for any country," he added.

The two countries had discussed civilian nuclear cooperation as a part of the wider India-Japan Energy Dialogue but formal negotiations have not yet resumed. During the dialogue, Japan also sought some clarifications about India's nuclear liability law that prevents suppliers from making themselves immune to compensation claims in the event of an accident. The two sides had held three rounds of talks over the issue before Fukushima.

Without actually resuming negotiations, Japan has maintained that it remains committed to having civilian nuclear cooperation that was stated during the visit of foreign minister Koichiro Gemba to India earlier this year. Gemba's the then counterpart S M Krishna had said that consultations would resume soon. According to the joint statement issued after the summit meet here last year, the two prime ministers had directed their negotiators to "exert further efforts towards a conclusion of the agreement, having due regard to each side's relevant interests, including nuclear safety".

For India, the outcome of the Japanese elections next month will be interesting as nuclear power is likely to be one of the main issues. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan has declared that it will work to bring down the number of all operating reactors to zero by 2040, but the main opposition, Liberal Democratic Party, not just wants those reactors considered safe to reopen but also to use nuclear power policies as a springboard for further economic growth.

[SSridhar]

Japan to Fund Multi-Billion Dollar CBIC, Chennai-Bangalore Industrial Corridor, soon - The Hindu

Japan has said it will soon announce funding for the multi-billion dollar Chennai-Bangalore Industrial Corridor (CBIC), the third mega project that will be quarter-backed by Tokyo. The other two projects that Japan is backing are the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) and the Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC).

The announcement of the CBIC project has led to considerable enthusiasm among most south Indian states with Andhra Pradesh wanting its extension to Krishnapatnam port and Karnataka asking for the inclusion of Chitradurga with the State government planning to set up a manufacturing hub between Chitradurga and Tumkur. Kerala is the only south Indian State which has so far not expressed a desire to be included in the project, according to government sources.

The feasibility study for the CBIC is likely to be financed from a 184 billion yen Official Development Assistance (ODA) from Japan which will also fund the second phase of the DFC.

This was conveyed by Japanese Prime Minister Yosihiko Noda during his second meeting in as many days with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit and related meetings with its dialogue partners, including India.

New Delhi is putting immense faith in CBIC, heralding a renewed round of industrialisation in the south, with T. K. A. Nair, Adviser to Dr. Singh, regularly reviewing its progress.

The project was first made public during the India-Japan annual summit in 2010.

The project will initially focus on Phase-II of the Chennai Outer Ring Road, Chennai-Bangalore Expressway, modernisation of airports in Chennai, Bangalore and Sriperumbudur and ports in Chennai and Ennore, in addition to a high-speed rail link between Chennai, Bangalore and the Avadi rail link.

Simultaneously, State governments and the Centre will deliberate on easing customs procedures and enhanced use of IT and automation.

According to official sources, the Prime Minister welcomed the ongoing projects under the ODA but emphasised that India’s priority was investment by Japanese business in infrastructure projects such as the Delhi Metro which other cities wanted to emulate. This is the same message he gave to Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao on Monday.

[Yogi_G]

With dwindling Japanese populations, Japan can only one day hope to have more immigrants from S.Korea and India to make up for numbers, they dont carry the political or attitude baggage that the Chinese would bring in.

[member_19686]

With dwindling Japanese populations, Japan can only one day hope to have more immigrants from S.Korea and India to make up for numbers, they dont carry the political or attitude baggage that the Chinese would bring in.

Majority of Japanese don't want or care for immigrants and least of all do they want are Koreans (especially with the Christian fanatics among the South Koreans) and in any case South Korea is not overflowing with babies, its TFR is also well below replacement and it is well developed now.

India too will have a declining population one day, what should we do then import immigrants from BD (which we already do) and Africa?

http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-pa ... ave-2009-4

And most of these immigrants were of Japanese descent but had a hard time fitting into Japanese society after generations in Latin America.

Japan may pick robots over immigrants
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8687196.stm

[member_19686]

Ishihara rattles saber against China
Nuclear 'simulation' swagger is coupled with sympathy for Tibetans, call for defense buildup

By NATSUKO FUKUE
Staff writer

Shintaro Ishihara, the new head of Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party), remained true to his China-hawk form Tuesday by saying Japan should "simulate" possessing nuclear arms as a deterrent to Beijing.

Ishihara's remark during a news conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in Tokyo, is likely to ruffle feathers both at home and abroad, especially amid the territorial row with China over the Senkaku Islands.

"It's high time Japan made simulations of possessing nuclear arms," Ishihara said. "That would become a form of deterrent" against China's possible military encroachment.

The 80-year-old former Tokyo governor also said the defense budget should be increased while dealing with China in a "calm but resolute manner."

"We need to say no to China when necessary because I don't want Japan to be like Tibet, which has fallen under Chinese power," said Ishihara, who coauthored the best-selling essay "The Japan That Can Say No" in 1989 with late Sony cofounder Akio Morita. The book urges Japan to become more assertive in international affairs.

"I feel so sorry for the Tibetan people," he said.

Ishihara repeatedly referred to China as "Shina," the name often associated with Japan's military occupation during the war, instead of "Chugoku," the Japanese word for the country.

"Shina is not a negative word. And for Japanese, Chugoku means Hiroshima and Okayama" — the Chugoku region in western Honshu, he said.

Ishihara asserted that most Japanese agree with him that Japan should deal with China in a calm but assertive manner when conflict arises.

The platform of Nippon Ishin no Kai, which was founded by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, states the party will urge China to agree to bring the Senkaku dispute to the International Court of Justice for a ruling on which country has sovereignty over the rocky islets long held by Japan.

Ishihara said defense spending, now limited to 1 percent of the national budget, should be boosted.

"I think the skills of the Japanese military industry are high," he said, voicing his personal view. "Why not boost the ability of (the nation's) self-defense?"

Ishihara said he basically supports the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade talks but then added "he cannot forgive" the U.S. promotion of genetically modified food. The TPP is opposed by farmers who fear it would lead to a flood of cheap, imported produce after tariff barriers are removed.

He said the government should not rush to abandon nuclear power and instead calculate how the economy would fare without such energy. "Hashimoto and I agree that we should do such calculations," he said.

Hashimoto had advocated abandoning nuclear power by the 2030s and had earlier said his party would pursue this goal. But in consideration of Ishihara's stance, he did not include this in the joint statement issued Saturday when his party absorbed Ishihara's four-day-old group.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20121121a3.html

[JE Menon]

>>Kerala is the only south Indian State which has so far not expressed a desire to be included in the project, according to government sources.

Hmmmph... Japanese investment. Rubbish. We are waiting for the Chinese to invest in the Mattanchery-Moscow corridor...

[member_23677]

>>Kerala is the only south Indian State which has so far not expressed a desire to be included in the project, according to government sources.

Hmmmph... Japanese investment. Rubbish. We are waiting for the Chinese to invest in the Mattanchery-Moscow corridor...

Red supports Red huh?

[brihaspati]

Surasena ji,
what makes you think Indias population will dwindle one day - TFR wise?

[member_19686]

Surasena ji,
what makes you think Indias population will dwindle one day - TFR wise?

The trend is pointing that way in most of the world (barring strong religious motivation for breeding as among the haredi jews or the salafist muslims). China's TFR is already well below replacement.

I believe Kerala, Karnataka, TN, AP are all already below replacement.

I haven't seen any indications of a counter trend.

Add in sex selective abortion which has created a shortage of women.

Of course the decline will be greater among Hindus, the usual suspects will carry on the womb Jihad with devastating effects. It will also take a while for below replacement TFR to translate into actual population decline & that may of course never happen because we will have worthies suggesting that we add in a few million immigrants from BD or Africa each year to prevent "population decline".

Perhaps we should talk about this in OT thread.

[member_19686]

On this page is a copy of an English translation of the (in)famous "The Japan That Can Say No: The New U.S.-Japan Relations Card" by Akio Morita and Shintaro Ishihara. The book was written in 1989 and published by Kobunsha Publishing Ltd. Included are some articles written in the early 1990s in response to the article.

http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jwb/japan_no.html

[member_23677]

Surasena ji,
what makes you think Indias population will dwindle one day - TFR wise?

The trend is pointing that way in most of the world (barring strong religious motivation for breeding as among the haredi jews or the salafist muslims). China's TFR is already well below replacement.

I believe Kerala, Karnataka, TN, AP are all already below replacement.

I haven't seen any indications of a counter trend.

Add in sex selective abortion which has created a shortage of women.

Of course the decline will be greater among Hindus, the usual suspects will carry on the womb Jihad with devastating effects. It will also take a while for below replacement TFR to translate into actual population decline & that may of course never happen because we will have worthies suggesting that we add in a few million immigrants from BD or Africa each year to prevent "population decline".

Perhaps we should talk about this in OT thread.

I think comparing India's population growth with China won't be correct, a major decline in China's population growth is a direct result of one child policy, regardless of how much it may amuse our westphallic members here, population control through artificial means is a big scam by the west and the chinese apparently are sold to any and every thing the west teaches to the "old world". Mao's quest and desire to send "disasterous" chinese women to west to reduce population at home comes to mind. His grand plan was to send millions of women to US and west, so that they can ruin their economy while uplifting china's. One child policy was a stupid decision and they have already started to suffer the perils of that.
Hindu population growth has slowed and that worries me, muslim growth is highest at 2.2... I don't think India will face the kind of population decline west and west-imitating (including Japan) is facing now and will face for the foreseeable future. As long as family systems are intact in the country, the population growth will remain quite stable. Would like to get your opinions on these points.

Mao's desire : http://quicktake.wordpress.com/2012/07/ ... any-women/
One child policy and the trouble caused by it : http://quicktake.wordpress.com/2012/11/ ... ld-policy/

[member_19686]

@ P. Bhagat, will reply later in the OT thread.

[youtube]wdAo-ozkSzk&feature=share[/youtube]

Tokyo's former governor and the outspoken new president of Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party), Shintaro Ishihara, 80, speaks at the Foreign Correspondents' Club on Nov. 20, 2012.

[Advait]

Some out of the box thinking here.

How about India-Japan creating an EU type block. The three main components will be: free trade, treating each others companies as locals for tax and investment purposes and easy availability of work visas for Japanese in India. Now the last one seems like a hard sell but hear me out.

Japan is a developed, kinda stagnated country as of now. Lot of Japanese professionals are said to be stuck in dead-end positions. Several went to S.Korea in the 90s and helped the electronics industry there develop. If we can get thousands if not lakhs of Japanese professionals to come here that will be a boon for Indian industry. And since Japan is a more developed country and immigration-averse we can assuage their fears by saying that you can just allow a few thousand Indians in every year. Demanding an equal-equal in this regard will certainly be a deal-killer.

The pact can also be extended to S.Korea, Taiwan and Singapore if it works out.

[Cosmo_R]

Cautiously, Japan Raises Military Profile as China Rises

"After years of watching its international influence eroded by a slow-motion economic decline, pacifist Japan is trying to raise its profile in a new way, offering military aid for the first time in decades and displaying its own armed forces in an effort to build regional alliances and shore up other countries’ defenses to counter a rising China. "

.....

"Under the decade-old civilian aid program to build up regional coast guards, Japanese officials say they are in the final stages of what would be their biggest security-related aid package yet, to provide the Philippine Coast Guard with ten cutters worth about $12 million each. Ministry officials say they may offer similar ships to Vietnam.

Japan’s Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, said it planned to double its military aid program next year to help Indonesia and Vietnam. Vietnam could also be among the countries Japan would allow to buy its submarines, according to a former defense minister, Toshimi Kitazawa, who named Australia and Malaysia as other possible buyers. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/27/world ... wanted=all

[Advait]

Going OT here with India/Hindu TFR rate. But the fact is that TFR in 12 Indian states is below replacement level.

Also, I have seen that Hindu middle class couples who married within the last 15 years (irrespective of regional background, caste, profession) usually have just one kid.

I won't be surprised if becoming permanent DINKs becomes more and more fashionable in the next few years.

[SSridhar]

Cautiously, Japan Raises Military Profile as China Rises

Yes. The NYT article above didn't mention the following. In late 2011, during the Japanese PM Noda Yoshihiko’s visit to India, it was announced that the two navies would establish interoperability between them. India is the only other country, apart from the US, with which Japan would have such an interoperability. In June, 2012, the Indian and Japanese navies conducted their first bi-lateral joint exercise code named JIMEX-12 off the Japanese coast.

[kmkraoind]

India, Japan ink $15 bn currency swap agreement

[SSridhar]

Fireworks on display at India Gate in New Delhi on Friday marking the 60th anniversary of Japan-India diplomatic relations.Photo: R. V. Moorthy , Courtesy: The Hindu

Have we ever celebrated the 60th (or any other ) anniversary of diplomatic relations with any other country like this ?

[chaanakya]

Jaded voters set to return to what they know

Japan goes to poll today.

Politics Dec. 16, 2012 - 06:30AM JST ( 13 )

TOKYO —

Japan holds elections Sunday that are likely to bring it a seventh prime minister in six years. And despite anger at the country’s economic and diplomatic drift, voters who flirted with change last time look set grudgingly to return to what they know.

Although polls predict a return to power for the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, analysts say the one-time natural party of government could win as merely the least worst option.

North Korea’s successful rocket launch on Wednesday is likely to swell support for hawks in the LDP and in smaller parties, in a country already feeling the heat from a territorial dispute with China.

“The LDP’s lead in pre-election surveys does not necessarily mean people have high hopes for the party or its revival,” said Koji Nakakita, a politics professor at Tokyo’s Hitotsubashi University.

“It is largely a result of voters’ disappointment with the Democratic Party of Japan and the only option left in the elimination process,” he told AFP.

The DPJ swept to an historic victory in 2009 after more than half a century of almost uninterrupted LDP rule.

Voters were smitten by big-picture pledges to wrest power from Japan’s army of bureaucrats, cut red tape and “put people first”. They also liked promises of free schooling, a bigger child support allowance and toll-free expressways.

But the party got off to a shaky start when the first of its three prime ministers flip-flopped on a pledge to shift an unpopular U.S. military base from the southern island of Okinawa, angering locals and Washington.

Trust fell further with its often confused response to the tsunami-sparked nuclear crisis at Fukushima in March 2011, where reactors went into meltdown.

With the country still recovering from the disaster and all but two nuclear reactors offline, a polarising debate on atomic energy has emerged as one of the key differences among a dozen parties contesting the election.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s DPJ is vowing to “take every possible measure” to phase out nuclear power by 2040, while the business-friendly LDP says only that it will decide within three years on restarting reactors.

A raft of smaller parties, notably a rag-tag collection of center-leftists, offer shorter timeframes for ditching nuclear, from instantly to a decade on.

Populist Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto has tied up with former Tokyo Gov Shintaro Ishihara in the nationalist Japan Restoration Party, producing a possible coalition partner for hire.

But commentators say differing views on key issues such as participation in a Pacific-wide free trade pact may prove to be its undoing.

Opinion polls point to an LDP-led coalition with the centrist New Komeito party.

That would bring a return to the premiership for Shinzo Abe, the first of six men to hold the job for around a year in a highly fractured and factionalised political scene.

Abe, whose stated reason for leaving office in 2007 was a now-resolved bowel complaint, has been hawkish since re-taking the LDP’s helm this year.

After months of tensions with Beijing over disputed islands in the East China Sea, he has pledged to boost maritime surveillance and re-write the post-World War II pacifist constitution foisted on Tokyo by its US occupiers, a nod to those calling for a more muscular military.

That stance could be boosted by North Korea’s launch. The rocket passed over Okinawa, where Japan had stationed missile batteries to shoot down anything that threatened its territory.

Abe has been vocal in calls to kickstart Japan’s limp, deflation-plagued economy, vowing to impose a three percent inflation target on the Bank of Japan and forcing it to buy bonds—effectively deficit financing.

He has since rowed back after criticism he was endangering the independence of the central bank. But his comments helped pull down the high yen, delighting exporters hit hard by the surging currency.

However, Abe’s call for more public works projects to stimulate the economy was seen by some as a return to Japan’s pork-barrel politics.

“The DPJ government has taken a ‘risk-avoidance policy’ through big tax hikes, restrained fiscal spending and moderate monetary easing,” said UBS economist Takuji Aida.

The LDP would shift to a “reflation policy” through active fiscal spending on infrastructure and monetary easing with lower corporate taxes, he said.

Kenji Shiomura, strategist at Daiwa Securities, said problems remain whoever comes out on top.

“It’s hard to imagine a change of government will lead to measures that have a real impact on the economy,” he said.

“Behind the deflation is a structural problem—a shrinking population with low birthrates. This problem won’t go away.”

Polls are open for 13 hours from 7 a.m.

[AbhiJ]

Japanese PM: Shinzo Abe

Abe graduated from Tokyo's Seikei University in 1977 and studied politics at the University of Southern California. He worked for a time at Kobe Steel before becoming a political aide to his father in 1982. After his father's death, Abe ran for Parliament's lower house and was elected in 1993.

A soft-spoken, natty dresser, Abe's rise through the Liberal Democratic ranks was aided by a successful, high-profile battle in 2002 to win the release from North Korea of five kidnapped Japanese citizens, who returned home for what was supposed to be a brief visit and, at his insistence, stayed.

That helped burnish his image as a defense hawk. But scandals among his cabinet ministers, and problems with ulcerative colitis, brought that term in office to an abrupt end.

In a September party election, Abe came from behind to defeat ex-defense chief Shigeru Ishiba as head of the Liberal Democrats.

Abe long has allied himself with other conservative politicians who favor a higher profile role for Japan's military and support controversial visits to the Yasukuni war shrine. He denies there is proof that Japan's military really forced women into sexual slavery during the war and maintains that Japan's history textbooks are too self-critical over past wartime atrocities.

Such stances are certain to rile China at a time of already acute antagonisms over a territorial dispute.

Still, economic imperatives, and Abe's strong links to the corporate world, may help temper his hard line toward China.

His wife, Akie, is the socialite daughter of a former president of one of Japan's leading confectioners, Morinaga & Co. Despite the Liberal Democrats' conservative stance on gender equality, the future first lady is a businesswoman in her own right, owning a pub in downtown Tokyo.

Surveys forecasting a Liberal Democratic victory have driven recent rallies on Japan's stock market and helped drive the Japanese yen—which Abe has pledged to weaken—to a 20-month low against the U.S. dollar on Friday.

Abe is calling for sharply increased public works spending and further easing of Japan's already loose monetary policies. Such strategies could give Japan's construction and materials' industries at least a temporary boost, and help exporters by weakening the Japanese yen—which has remained at stubbornly high levels thanks to the conviction among global investors that the country remains a financial safe haven.

with an impeccable political lineage: his father Shintaro Abe was a former foreign minister, and his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi, was arrested as a war criminal after World War II, but reinstated to become prime minister.

[chaanakya]

Exit polls: LDP wins clear majority with 275-300 seats

The results were a sharp rebuke for the Democratic Party of Japan, showing widespread unhappiness for its failure to keep promises and get the economy going.

The victory means that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will get a second chance to lead the nation after a one-year stint in 2006-2007. He would be Japan’s seventh prime minister in six-and-a-half years.

[SSridhar]

Shinzo Abe would be good for India - ToI
Though there is today a support for close economic & military relationship with India across party lines, yet it helps to have a pro-India PM.

Notwithstanding a few exceptions, hitherto Japanese investment in India has mostly been through the government route. While this has gone a long way in funding infrastructure projects in India, it's time Japanese companies are incentivised to directly invest here. Bilateral partnership in technology is key to India emerging as a knowledge economy. On the strategic front, there is huge scope for cooperation through the East Asia Summit forum. This would serve to address crucial maritime issues in East Asia and protect common economic interests. It's time Tokyo and New Delhi effect a paradigm shift in bilateral ties.

[amdavadi]

Abe has good working relations with Namo.

[SSridhar]

New Japan PM, an old friend will give priority to India: GoI - Sandeep Dikshit, The Hindu

More than incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s professed proclivity towards India, New Delhi is hoping that the next Government in Tokyo will be more decisive on strategic issues.

The trend of India-Japan relations under three Prime Ministers of the previous Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) remained positive but India’s responses had to be re-calibrated because each Premier had a different take on the geo-political situation and trends, said Government sources.

Officials concede that Mr. Abe had set India-Japan ties on the high road when he was Prime Minister five years back. They also concur with the assessment by strategic experts that he retained his assessment of India as a key spoke in Japan’s scheme of things even after demitting office. But they feel it would be wrong to talk about one entity. “The Government is not supporting one person or the other. It is wrong to crow about the importance of one entity. It is not as if he is special and others are not,” said the sources.

“The only thing we wish is that the new Government will be more decisive. The trend with the DPJ Government continued in the same positive vein as with Liberative Democratic Party (LDP) Governments. But certain decisions took time and the DPJ Government spoke in different voices at the same time,” they added.

The strategic orientation of each DPJ Prime Minister was different. When Yukio Hatoyama became Prime Minister, he tried to draw a line on U.S.-Japan-China relations. His successor Naoto Kan tried to but couldn’t turn around this approach. And Yoshihiko Noda, who followed as Prime Minister, put up the U.S.-Japan alliance as the basis of Tokyo’s foreign policy and international strategy.

The accent on different strategic line ups by successive Prime Ministers of the same party, feel the sources, is now in the past and India-Japan ties would further enhance and expand due to Mr. Abe’s ideological orientation — he wants to revise Japan’s Constitution by designating the defence forces as military and enhanced defence ties with nations (that includes India in the first tier) that do not harbour ill will against Japan.

This means that India’s defence and strategic ties with Japan could become stronger. Even if the civil nuclear agreement could take some time, India could look forward to the removal of some of its companies from the list that restricts their interaction with Japanese companies.

The last such revision took place two years back, around the time India agreed to hold a 2 + 2 dialogue involving Defence and Foreign Secretaries from both countries. Ironically, the removal of some Indian companies from the Japanese export control list benefited Tokyo more during its time of need.

Indian Rare Earths Limited, which was on Japan’s export control list but was removed in 2010, has come to the rescue of Japan’s automobile industry by promising to supply the mineral. China had refused to supply rare earth materials.

[SSridhar]

The importance of Shinzo Abe - Sanjay Baru, The Hindu

The Pacific and the Indian Oceans are “now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity. A ‘Broader Asia’ that broke away geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form. Our two countries have the ability — and the responsibility — to ensure that it broadens yet further and to nurture and enrich these seas to become seas of clearest transparence.”

With those words Shinzo Abe, now re-elected Prime Minister of Japan, began a historic address to the Indian Parliament in August 2007. To an audience that had not yet absorbed the full import of the historic shift Mr. Abe was seeking in Japan’s relations with India, he added: “This is the message I wish to deliver directly today to the one billion people of India. That is why I stand before you now in the Central Hall of the highest chamber, to speak with you, the people’s representatives of India.”

Shinzo Abe is not just another Prime Minister in a country where Prime Ministers come by the dozen. He has pedigree and has acquired courage and a vision. Over the weekend he has also acquired a massive and historic verdict in favour of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Early ties

Mr. Abe is the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, the first Japanese Prime Minister to visit independent India, in 1957. Mr. Abe recalls with affection the stories he had heard as a child about India, sitting on his grandfather’s lap!

Mr. Abe’s first meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh took place a few months before Mr. Abe’s first term as Prime Minister in 2006. He was on a visit to India as Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, a position that would normally not have entitled him to a meeting with the Indian Prime Minister. Fortunately, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the present ambassador to China who had served as chief of mission at the Indian Embassy in Tokyo in the 1990s, alerted me to the career potential of Mr. Abe and suggested I arrange an ‘informal’ meeting for him with Dr. Singh. Given his political pedigree and his proximity to the major-domo of Japan’s ruling LDP, Yoshiro Mori, Mr. Abe was seen by Mr. Jaishankar as certain to become Prime Minister one day. Brushing protocol aside Dr. Singh welcomed Mr. Abe for tea.

Months later Mr. Abe replaced Junichiro Koizumi and became, at 52, Japan’s youngest post-War Prime Minister in September 2006. He was also the first Japanese Prime Minister to be born after the war. In his altogether brief first term — lasting precisely an year from September 26, 2006 to September 26, 2007 — one of Mr. Abe’s important foreign policy initiatives was to visit India and set out a new vision of India-Japan relations through his address to the Indian Parliament. He dubbed it ‘Broader Asia’.

Japan is now trying to “catch up to the reality of this ‘Broader Asia’,” he told Indian MPs. “Japan has undergone ‘The Discovery of India’, by which I mean we have rediscovered India as a partner that shares the same values and interests and also as a friend that will work alongside us to enrich the seas of freedom and prosperity, which will be open and transparent to all.”

Seeking a “Confluence of the Two Seas”, the Pacific and the Indian Oceans — anticipating Hillary Clinton’s idea of the “Indo-Pacific” — Mr. Abe asked the Indian Parliament if it was not time for a value-based and an interests-based relationship between India and Japan. “This partnership is an association in which we share fundamental values such as freedom, democracy, and the respect for basic human rights as well as strategic interests. Japanese diplomacy is now promoting various concepts in a host of different areas so that a region called ‘the Arc of Freedom and Prosperity’ will be formed along the outer rim of the Eurasian continent. The Strategic Global Partnership of Japan and India is pivotal for such pursuits to be successful.”

Invested in China

This bold vision that Mr. Abe set out in his brief first term scared many in Japan who had invested heavily in the Japan-China business relationship and were worried that China would be provoked by Japan’s assertion of democracy as a factor in Asian diplomacy. Mr. Abe’s successor, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, quickly retreated from Mr. Abe’s bold perspective. Mr. Fukuda’s meeting with Dr. Singh in Singapore, on the sidelines of an Asean summit in November 2007, was a damp squib compared to the warm interaction with Mr. Abe. Mr. Fukuda was frosty and made no reference at all to Mr. Abe’s new vision for the bilateral relationship.

While there has been a revival of the idea of ‘strategic partnership’ since Mr. Fukuda’s time, growing economic and business interests have added ballast to the relationship. The Delhi-Mumbai Industrial and Rail Corridor, a lasting legacy of Dr. Singh, Mr. Koizumi and Mr. Abe, has since created a wider basis for closer ties.

However, Japanese investors still find India a difficult place to do business. Unlike their more risk-taking Korean counterparts, Japanese businesses seek more hospitable conditions in India to step up investment.

At a recent conference on India-Japan relations in New Delhi, Japanese economists and officials reiterated their concern about poor infrastructure, non-transparent legal and taxation systems and the sheer difficulty of living in and dealing with India. Though, as one Japanese put it, India now has more Japanese restaurants!

Mr. Abe’s vision of a ‘Broader Asia’ has not excited too many companies that have, through the 1990s and well into the early 2000s, invested heavily in China. It is when China overtook Japan to become the world’s second biggest economy that Japanese businesses woke up to the rude reality of their increasing marginalisation in Asia.

Mr. Abe’s ‘Broader Asia’ approach imparts a strategic dimension to the India-Japan relationship and could be a gamechanger for Asia. One important area in which this new strategic vision will make a difference is in nuclear and defence policy. As the world’s only victim of nuclear attack Japan has long resisted normalising India’s nuclear power status. More recently the Fukushima disaster fed into this latent anti-nuke sentiment in Japan creating yet another barrier to India-Japan cooperation in this area. The Abe verdict, and the defeat of the anti-nuke political groups in these elections, should help Japan work with India in a vital field of energy and national security.

India and Japan are truly natural partners in Asia. Their ties have deep civilisational roots, an increasingly shared vision of a Rising Asia and a strong commitment to democratic values. As Asia’s technologically most advanced economy Japan can help India’s economic development. As a growing market of over a billion, with the world’s largest pool of youth, India can offer Japan both markets and manpower. Shinzo Abe now has the mandate to make his vision a reality.

[SSridhar]

The Return of ShinzoAbe: What does it mean for India ? - RS Kalha, IDSA

Shinzo Abe belongs to a distinguished family of political leaders in Japan. His father Shintaro Abe was a former Foreign Minister, and his maternal grandfather Nobusuke Kishi a former Prime Minister. Shinzo Abe himself was briefly Prime Minister from 2006 to 2007 and returns after the recent general elections with a huge majority as a leader of the Liberal Democratic Party [LDP]. He is known for his hawkish views, particularly on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute with China. Press reports quote him as saying that ‘Japan owns and controls the islands under international law. There is no room for negotiations on this point.’

There is no doubt that after the recent events over the disputed islands the relationship between China and Japan is at the cross-roads. Fresh evidence, if any was needed, came in the figures published by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that the volume of direct investment from Japan to China had dropped to US$ 460 million, down by nearly a third from one year ago. The currency swap arrangement between the two countries is also in limbo. The recent wave of anti-Japanese feelings in China, leading to large scale boycott of Japanese products in China, has further embittered relations. There are nearly one million Chinese employed in Japanese firms operating in China and should Japanese firms decide to scale down their operations, the livelihood of these workers would be at risk. If Shinzo Abe lives up to his campaign rhetoric, the Sino-Japanese relationship is indeed headed for troubled waters.

Chinese strategic analysts have always believed that the main security threat to China would come from the Pacific Ocean. The US decision to ‘pivot’ its strategy to Asia has only tended to confirm their apprehensions. Even at the height of the troubles between India and China over Tibet in 1959 and subsequently over the boundary issue, the Chinese never lost sight of this fundamental fact and it remained ingrained in their strategic thought. The Chinese have never shied away from expressing their thoughts on the subject. On 16 May 1959, at the height of the troubles in Tibet, the then Chinese Ambassador visited South Block and handed over a Diplomatic Note, said to be personally drafted by Mao himself, to the then Foreign Secretary. It makes a most interesting reading. Among other things, it stated the following:

The enemy of the Chinese people lies in the east—the US imperialists have many military bases in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan and in the Philippines which are all directed against China. China’s main attention and policy of struggle are directed to the east, to the west Pacific region, to the vicious and aggressive US imperialism and not to India….India is not an opponent but a friend of our country. China will not be so foolish to antagonize the US in the east and again to antagonize India in the west. The putting down of the rebellion….in Tibet will not in the least endanger India. You can wait and see.…This is our state policy…Our Indian friends! What is in your mind? Will not you be agreeing to our thinking regarding the view that China can only concentrate its main attention eastwards of China but not south-westward of China, nor is it necessary for it to do so….Friends! It seems to us that you too cannot have two fronts….Is it not so? If it is, here lies the meeting point of our two sides. Will you please think it over?

Nehru did not respond in the manner that the Chinese had hoped he might have. Why he chose not to do so is also moot? Had he done so, or at the very least explored further what the Chinese had in mind, it is quite possible that the troubles over the boundary issue could have been avoided. All this is, of course, a matter of history now. Yet the fundamental fact remains that the Chinese threat perceptions even today have not changed very substantially from what was stated to Nehru in 1959. And herein lies India’s opportunity now.

Both the United States and Japan wish for India to play a much more robust role not only in the Indian Ocean area but also in the South China Sea and beyond in the Pacific Ocean. With Japan, India’s relationship is not only moving at a brisk pace but the two Prime Ministers have decided to meet on an annual basis. India considers Japan as a strategic partner, a source of economic funding and a country that can provide significant technological and scientific up-gradation for its industrial development. Between the years 2000 to 2012, Japanese FDI into India totalled US$12.86 billion, which is about 9 per cent of the total, with Japan just behind the United Kingdom. Japanese firms operating in India provide 152,280 jobs to Indians. And above all there are no issues that bedevil the relationship. Similarly, the countries of South East Asia, such as Vietnam, the Philippines and to a lesser extent Malaysia and Indonesia, hard pressed as they are by China’s belligerent posturing, all wish India to play a much more robust role in the region. While the United States promises to provide the necessary military security in South East Asia and have also promised Japan support over the Senkaku islands in its stand-off with China, most countries in the region watch with apprehension the continuing US entanglements in the Middle East. The latest imbroglio over Syria has raised doubts whether the United States would ever be free from such entanglements. The promised pivot to Asia still seems to be largely rhetorical and so far away. Meanwhile, the shadow of a resurgent China looms ever larger. China’s economic muscle is also on full display. There are only three countries ranging from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of the United States that do not have China as their largest trading partner!

As the opportunity presents itself, it is now time for Indian diplomacy to show what stuff it is made off. With China increasingly wary of the developments taking place on its Pacific seaboard, it would perhaps be in a much better frame of mind to listen to Indian concerns. India should not be shy of stating them, in a forthright manner, at the highest levels of the Chinese leadership. These should include the boundary issue, Chinese meddling in our neighbourhood and above all China’s destructive nuclear and military supply relationship with Pakistan that is so detrimental to Indian security. Let the Chinese also begin to re-assess the stakes involved.

China is also clearly worried at the US ‘containment’ policy and ‘rebalancing’ to Asia. Any indication of joint naval exercises by India, Japan, the United States and Australia usually brings forth vociferous protests. Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has conveyed to the Chinese leadership that India will not be a part of any ‘containment’ policy, yet it does no harm to let the perception grow among the Chinese leadership that there are other options available. Similarly, it would do no harm for Japan to exponentially increase its FDI coverage into India. Should Japanese manufacturing companies presently operating in China downsize their presence there and simultaneously enlarge their presence in India, the message would have been sent loud and clear. It is for the Indian authorities now to take the decisive lead to encourage Japan and other South East Asian countries, instead of wasting valuable time in fruitless ideological debates.

[SSridhar]

Japanese business in India. Link

Shifting to south

The investments are led by automobile companies which have also brought in tier-I and -II suppliers. Five major Japanese automobile players have invested in Tamil Nadu or close to the State and have drawn suppliers to invest here.

Apart from Renault-Nissan, Nissan’s joint venture with Ashok Leyland and Toyota, two-wheeler company Yamaha has announced plans to set up a 1.8-million unit production facility near Chennai. Yamaha is to start production in January 2014 and by 2018 will reach full capacity. In North India, its unit will go to 1 million units by then.

Effectively, its production is shifting to the South, he pointed out. Pick-up truck-maker Isuzu plans to set up its headquarters in Chennai. It will finalise a location by next month, he said. Its investment will be comparable with that of other Japanese automobile majors, he said.

Renault-Nissan which started with a production capacity of 1 lakh units in 2010 has quadrupled its output.

So where is the deficiency?

Look at the power shortage, Fujii says. Last year, every day companies had to use diesel generators for at least half a day. Now 3-4 hours daily they depend on generators. The diesel power is 3-4 times costly, and companies are hit by cash losses. There has been a more than year-and-a-half delay in improving connectivity to the Ennore Port. Renault-Nissan, Toshiba and Toyota are impacted by this problem. {t will take another year for this road to be widened. The japanese had complained all the way upto the PM.}

We “cannot understand the delay in Government schedules,” he said. Land costs are high and locations near Chennai are not available. Industrial estates in Oragadam and Sriperumbudur area have been sold out.

The Omega Township Project, dubbed a Japanese township, a 1,500-acre industrial township project near Mahabalipuram with 600 acres for industrial units and the balance for an integrated town, is also delayed. The environment impact assessment report has been cleared by the Centre and the State Government approvals are awaited. Developer Ascendas of Singapore has also started presales, he said.

Why Tamil Nadu

In Jetro’s estimate, India scores low as an investment destination in terms of initial costs. In most countries, investors can move in and start work once land is allocated. But here companies need to put in generators, water pipelines and electricity lines. Even Government clearances are delayed. While companies can expect to break even in 2-3 years elsewhere, in India it can take up to 5 years, says Fujii.

Renewal of working visas can take months to be cleared, a process that takes just 2-3 days in the US.

Why then are Japanese companies keen on investing in South India?

There are four to five reasons, he says. Presence of major ports on the East Coast with access to the Asean countries for Japanese companies, presence of other international players which gives Japanese companies a wider client base, skilled human resource, which is a strong feature in Tamil Nadu — when Renault-Nissan called for 800 jobs in 2010, there were 55,000 applications, he said.

Labour is 20-30 per cent cheaper compared with Delhi or Mumbai, he said.

Japanese companies have evolved in India. From the first stage of focusing on the domestic market here, they have gone on to exports and are now setting up technology-development centres. Renault-Nissan has over 5,000 workers in the car plant, but over 2,000-3,000 in the technology centre near Chennai. India is one of the global hubs for technology for Japanese companies, he said.

Japanese companies are looking at the Chennai-Bangalore corridor as “the backbone of Japanese investments.” Last December, India and Japan signed a joint statement on industrial cooperation. As a part of this, the Chennai-Bangalore corridor is to be upgraded with industrial parks and rail connectivity. Next year an initial master plan will be put in place.

The Indian Government announced in its National Manufacturing Policy plans to take the contribution of manufacturing sector to the GDP to 25 per cent from the present 15 per cent. The Japanese Government and companies can help the country achieve this target, Fujii said.

[devesh]

the subheading of "shifting south" is interesting. did Japan have a lot of investments in the North, and suddenly decided to close them and "shift to south"? or is it a bad choice of phrasing?

[SSridhar]

devesh, it is not that the Japanese are shutting shop in North India and moving to the South. They are beginning to make big-time investments in the South. The DMIC project has been running for a while and now the CBIC project will start. If Suzuki, Yamaha, Honda, Panasonic etc. made big investments in Haryana, UP etc., now they and other companies are making investments in the South too apart from keeping their existiing plants in those places.

[devesh]

thanks for the info, SSridhar ji.

[chaanakya]

This has relevance to India in as much as it shows that as China power grows , it would try to move away from its settled policies and provoke confrontation against the countries perceived weak.
This data point could be used in understanding the high probability of one of the three scenario painted by IDSA quoted in Military forum.
http://newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/100296.php

China doc recognized islands as Japan's


A Chinese official document drafted in 1950 recognizes Japan as the owner of a group of islands in the East China Sea, which Beijing also lays claim to.

The 20-page document, revealed by Japan Times newspaper on Friday, referred to the islands, which are known as Diaoyu in China, with their Japanese name Senkakus.

Filed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the document describes the disputed islands as part of the Ryukyu Islands, today known as Okinawa.

The document was completed in May 1970, nearly seven months after the foundation of the People's Republic of China by the Communist Party.

[chaanakya]

Abe promotes expanding regional ties

The Yomiuri Shimbun

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe aims to promote security cooperation with Australia and India, based on the strength of the Japan-U.S. alliance, in a bid to counter China's efforts to extend its influence.

Abe also believes strengthening ties with Russia and other Asian nations will help rebuild relations with China.

"The Japan-U.S. alliance is the central pillar [of Japan's foreign policy]," Abe added in an exclusive interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun on Friday.

Commenting on Japan-China relations, he said, "I think new developments will occur in our relationship [with China] by building a trust-based partnership with countries that share the same values, as well as strategically important nations such as Vietnam."

By boosting partnerships with nations surrounding China, Abe aims to urge Beijing to improve its relations with Japan.

Specifically, he suggested security cooperation between Japan and India following last year's joint training conducted by the Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Indian Navy.

"We also can pursue further security cooperation [with the United States] to develop a trilateral partnership between Japan, India and the United States. [Cooperation] between Japan, Australia and the United States will also contribute to regional stability. Additionally, we have a de facto promise of cooperation with Indonesia," he said. "Restoring the balance of power in the region is important."

In terms of foreign policy, Abe aims to pursue an updated version of "value diplomacy," a principle he developed during his first term as prime minister from September 2006 to September 2007. The policy has been changed slightly to reflect the current increasingly severe security environment.

The central idea of value diplomacy is to make a priority of building relationships with nations that share the same basic values in terms of democracy and a market economy.

"Freedom, democracy and fundamental human rights: We will deepen ties with nations that share and uphold these values. There has been no change in the philosophy," Abe said.

He expressed concern about North Korean issues and China's increasingly aggressive actions surrounding the Senkaku Islands. "Very tense situations are present in Asia. For example, the North Korean missile launch and China's actions on the seas," he said. "We should map out a strategy by not only considering bilateral relationships but also the entire globe."

The prime minister also mentioned the northern territories dispute. "Russia is part of Europe and also part of Asia. Our generation is obliged to try to solve the territorial problem and conclude a peace treaty [with Russia]," he said.

[Hiten]

Indo-Japanese Defence Co-Operation

http://www.aame.in/2013/01/indo-japanes ... ation.html

Indo-Japanese Defence Co-Operation

"India is located in the center of sea lanes which connect Japan with the Middle East and Africa, making it an extremely important country in a geopolitical sense for Japan"

This illustration, below, gives you an overview of the nature and extent of current military & security-related co-operation between India and Japan.

India-Japan-Strategic-Defence-Co-Operation-RESIZE

- Defense Cooperation and Exchanges with Other Nations～India～

A look at it, and one could, not so inaccurately, conclude that the military aspect of the Indo-Japanese relationship is quite fledgling at the moment. Most proposals for co-operation, though impressive, are yet to fully emerge from the drawing boards, with large portion of interaction being of an Academic, across the table-type in nature. Scale of those that have been implemented have enough scope for expansion, something that would happen once both countries gain sufficient confidence regarding the viability of such a relationship. India & Japan, it can be said, are testing the waters at the moment, a statement that takes on additional meaning given the current nature of their military engagement.

If one were to look back to try and trace the "history" of development of co-operation between India & Japan in the defence arena, one would find that this 'study of the history' is in fact a 'study of the contemporary'. That's is because the first significant step towards building up such bilateral co-operation occurred only in 2008 with the 'Joint declaration on Security Cooperation between India and Japan'3. Until that time, despite the two nations enjoying a healthy politics, trade & culture/religion-driven relationship, virtually none existed on the military front. The reason being, Japan, living under the comfort of America's Nuclear umbrella, enjoys the luxury of holding a certain world-view w.r.t. security & deterrence, that India can ill-afford to share. Therefore, looking at India with such tinted vision makes it difficult for the 'Land of the rising Sun' to appreciate India's position. Thus, the impasse.

However, developments over the past decade or so appears to have made them to begin coming around to reconsider their earlier held notions. Growth of Communist China has been paralleled by its destabilising, provocative posturing, especially towards the countries bordering it, that includes India & Japan. Of Taiwan, another country with whom it has a territorial dispute, just like with nearly every country bordering it, as attributed to Mao Zedong,

"Mao Tse-Tung announced further, the Chinese People’s Republic does not intend to start a war with the United States of America over Taiwan. We can wait 10-20 and even 30 or 40 years, continued Mao Tse-Tung. In this case we are taking into account the experience of the Soviet Union, which over 22 years [1918-1940--ed.] did not take military measures to return the Baltic states to the ranks of the USSR"

The statement being made in 1959, the 40 year wait would, therefore, correspond to a culmination in 1999 - a near match with the time since when China's claims on territories of not just Taiwan, that it claims as whole, but also portions of other nations, have grown more strident.

Thus, with commonality of this part-ally/competitor/adversary of sizable geography, it is only natural that the two nations begin gravitating towards each others, co-coordinating to ensure that their respective interests and aims are safeguarded. One can gauge how seriously the Japanese are betting on developing a relationship with India, that has a robust military & security component, from this statement,

"In October 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India visited Japan and the two Prime Ministers signed the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation between Japan and India, coming after similar declarations with the United States and Australia. India is, thereby, the third country with whom Japan has signed a joint declaration on security."

As evident from the on-the-ground military engagement1 between India & Japan, the current thrust is on initially developing strong maritime co-operation & partnership, be it through joint bi/multi-lateral Naval exercises or International maritime patrol. It isn't very hard to infer why. Japan, just like India is a Hydrocarbon deficit nation, importing them in large quantities to meet requirements. Thus, it is absolutely imperative to ensure that the Sea Lines Of Communication [SLOC] are secure & sanitised for their fuel to flow in unhindered. Maritime co-operation of this nature is, therefore, one with the least bones of contention - a launchpad from where to start building up stronger relation. It bodes well for both nations that Japanese aircraft manufacturer ShinMaywa, with its US-2 aircraft, is in competition to meet Indian Air Force's [IAF] requirement for 6 Amphibious Aircrafts. It is also offering the same to the Indian Navy, for its own requirement for 9 such seaplanes, with a possibility that the final number could rise to 18. One has to assume that the number 18 was arrived at by considering a follow-on to the Navy's 9, the IAF's 6 being a separate contract, if it does go ahead [would entail some serious jurisdictional "stepping on toes", though].

No symbol of co-operation between nations is stronger than that demonstrated through a deep and meaningful military engagement. However, it would take Herculean effort, especially on part of Japan, to make it possible, since their aforementioned world-view is deeply enshrined in the beliefs of its citizens, with legislative & legal sanctity. Having said this, it need reiteration that India & Japan have what it takes to be organic partners - both uphold & cherish dearly the idea of genuine democracy. Miracles of miracles, even the Communists in India are democratic. Both nations also hold similar outlook towards the world on matters of economic & international relations with common allies, and are faced with threats and concerns common to both. It is nobody's argument that war would ensue in the continent tomorrow. Au contraire, it is to the mutual benefit of the three nations to continue to maintain peace, increase and improve co-operation, whose benefits would eventually radiate out to the other Asian countries in its vicinity. China & India have publicly demonstrated their commitment to poverty alleviation of its citizenry, an effort that has been internationally acknowledged to be bearing fruits. Although the road ahead is still long, with numerous challenges to be surmounted, one must not detract from what the two have achieved, so far2. Any conflict will, therefore, put paid to this humongously challenging task, landing both back at the starting point, perhaps further back. The engine driving their respective efforts are their economic and trade relations, in which the three nations are deeply enmeshed, feeding each other and off each other. Those that have a lot to lose from war, therefore, must be the ones to invest the most in peace, provided the other nation hasn't hinged its entire identity & existence on being not-"the other country". However, relations that would prove critical in times of war take many decades to mature, and it is this very demonstration of a relation, that would itself serve as an effective deterrent to war, maintaining peace.

Experts suggest that the recent re-election of Shinzo Abe as Japan's Prime Minister bodes well for India, as he has been a proponent for Japan to partner India on the strategic & military front. Given the current climes in the region, it is absolutely imperative that India and Japan resolve their differences amicably to put up a collaborative effort in protecting individual and mutual interests, for growth and development of its people & the continent. While one wouldn't want to comment on the larger "Arc of Democracy" in this post, with India & Japan located on either sides, it would certainly be to the benefit of all to put a "Cap of Democracy" on bellicose intentions.

Godspeed

[ramana]

We need a Japan expert. Any takers?

Japan and India's growing embrace

[SSridhar]

Ramana, as a follower of India-Japan relationship, I can say that the article is a good and accurate summary of the developing India-Japan relationship. I will add a few points to further strengthen the arguments put forth by the author.

The upward swing of the India-Japan relationship has to be viewed in the context of the Shakti-II tests in c. 1998 when Japan imposed sanctions on India, spoke harshly, and stopped its Overseas Development Assistance (ODA). The contrast today is striking when we note that after Fukushima, when Japan stopped its ODA to all countries, India was the only exemption.

India, Japan and the USA established a trilateral dialogue mechanism by c. 2011 to exchange ideas on ‘regional and global issues of mutual interest’. The first Secretary-level U.S.-Japan-India trilateral meeting took place after the East Asia Summit (ten ASEAN members along with observers) in November, 2011, to set the agenda for future summit-level meetings. The fact that India, US and Japan already have a close trilateral relationship in the area of their naval forces (maritime self defence force as they call the Navy in Japan due to historical reasons) adds further importance to the trilaterla dialogue mechanism which, though not declared so, is strategic in nature and content.

By c. 2010, India and Japan had already formalized a rare 2+2 format of consultations between the two countries involving the Foreign and Defence Ministers of the two nations simultaneously. To my knowledge, the US is the only other country with which Japan has such a 2+2 dialogue mechanism.

Japan had also strongly supported India’s inclusion in ASEAN and the East Asia Summit over objections by China. China wanted Pakistan to be accorded the same position or India excluded. Of course, it was Singapore that stood steadfastly with India for elevating India's position within the Asean but Japanese help has also been immense especially in G20 and East Asia groups.

As maritime piracy became a major issue with Somali pirates hijacking several ships transiting the Arabian Sea and a successful interception in many cases by the Indian Navy and the Indian Coastguard, the US suggested boldly but informally a five-nation axis consisting of the US, Japan, South Korea (RoK), Australia and India. It did not take off, but something else happened. A trilateral RoK-India-Japan dialogue among think-tanks from these countries was announced in the joint statement after the March 2012 India-RoK summit at Seoul and was held in New Delhi in June 2012.

In late 2011, during the Japanese PM Noda Yoshihiko’s visit to India, it was announced that the two navies would establish interoperability between them. India is the only other country, apart from the US, with which Japan would have such an interoperability. In June, 2012, the Indian and Japanese navies conducted their first bi-lateral joint exercise code named JIMEX-12 off the Japanese coast. It was in October, 1999, Indian Coast Guard ship ICGS Tarabai and the Indian Naval Ship, INS Prahar captured a hijacked Japanese vessel MV Allondra Rainbow(and repainted as MV Mega Rama). This incident strengthened relations between the maritime defence forces of Japan and the Indian Coast Guard and the Indian Navy. The two Coast Guards signed a Memorandum of Understanding on November 24, 2006 for joint exercises, codenamed ‘Sahyog-Kaijin’, once a year which alternate off Indian and Japanese coasts. Since c. 2010, the Japanese Navy (Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force, or JMSDF) has also become part of the India-US Malabar exercise. In c. 2007, a five-nation exercise (including Australia and Singapore) was conducted, which China objected to. The Malabar Series of exercises are no longer carried out just off the Malabar coast. The 2011 exercises were off Okinawa in Japan, but Japan itself pulled out because its Maritime forces were deeply involved in relief efforts following the earthquake and tsunami that devasted that country in March, 2011. The National Defence Programme Guidelines of Japan released in 2011, bring India into sharp defence focus. India was the only country mentioned by name in that report for defence cooperation. During defence minister A.K.Antony’s visit to Japan in November, 2011, the two navies decided to expand their joint drills to unprecedented levels.

On the economic front too, India & Japan entered into a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CEPA) in February 2011 followed by India stepping in to export rare earth minerals to Japan after China unilaterally banned such exports after the incident involving Japanese Navy and Chinese fishermen in September 2010. In 2011, Japan removed seven Indian entities from its Foreign End User List and Indian Rare Earths company was one of them. The two countries are also jointly exploring rare earths in Kazakhastan.

During Japanese PM Yoshihiko Noda’s visit to India in December 2011, Japan also lifted embargo on arms sales to India. India immediately started scouting for the Japanese search-and-rescue planes.. In April 2012, the Japanese Defence company (ShinMaywa), the Japanese company that makes seaplanes that India is interested in, also participated in the annual defence exhibition, DEFEXPO-2012, in New Delhi

The Japanese investments in india are not commensurate with the rapid strides made in political and military areas. As the article notes correctly, the Indian bureaucracy and laws deter Japanese businessmen apart from the pathetic infrsatructure. For example, the Japanese have been after the Chennai & Ennore Port roads upgradation for a few years now and in spite of direct intervention by the PMO, this project is excruciatingly slow moving. However their investments in DMIC and the upcoming Chennai-Bengaluru corridor are proof of their strategy to invest in infrastructure before attracting Japanese investments. They are clearly diversifying manufacturing from China to India. It is up to India to make use of this huge window of opportunity but it is doubtful if we are moving with alacrity at all.

[ramana]

SS, Thanks for the elucidation on that article.

We need to develop more experts. You are already spread too thin.

Could you mentor some volunteers?

[SSridhar]

Ramana, in the increasingly intertwined world, it is imperative that one looks at many countries and many events, far and near, if one were to study geopiltics and geostrategy.