Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 16 Jan 2013 09:46

^ if the survey is to be believed, there won't be ant T-State, as the maximum strength of TRS is only 48.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 16 Jan 2013 12:42

If the survey is to be believed. Then AP, will have the flesh off its bones taken off and leftbone dry onlee

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Jan 2013 16:41

muraliravi wrote:Guys, tdp getting anywhere close to 25 seats out of 294 looks like a dream, forget winning back.

Here is a latest survey

http://m.timesofindia.com/city/hyderaba ... 040211.cms

This survey is such a bakwas. YSJ getting 191 is total trash and even YSJ himself will not say that number even as a promotion/advertisement.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 16 Jan 2013 16:50

RamaY wrote:^ if the survey is to be believed, there won't be ant T-State, as the maximum strength of TRS is only 48.

TRS is just a catalyst. Don't go by their numbers. If the UPA government is running based on visions, national structures and if it is worried about future repercussions in other parts of India etc. it will try to soothe the situation with a financial package to T region and try to create a state inside a state stuff.

However, based on its character if it goes purely political angle, INC will create Telangana as a state. I incline to believe this based on its track record. (Note: I am not saying T is some anti-national movement. The request for a T state is always there)

The other reason for INC to not create T state is if only a lot of moolah will be lost from its finaciers and if big businessment like Ambanis are against such a split. But Congress is fighting between being relevant Vs extinction in the state and hence all this also could become secondary.

I see an edge towards T creation in its decision making.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 16 Jan 2013 22:14

Last time chiru took away C Babu votes and helped YSR win. Now Chiru has been castrated and made a Kangress man. Next time, whom will those voted for chiru vote next time? YSJ? Are these people so naive? Won't they have some self respect?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Jan 2013 02:11

If NM is the PM candidate and BJP puts up candidates in all 42 constituencies of AP, i have a feeling that they may get upto 10-15 MP seats.

This will have no relationship with people voting for YSRCP in assembly elections.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 17 Jan 2013 02:48

geeth wrote:Last time chiru took away C Babu votes and helped YSR win. Now Chiru has been castrated and made a Kangress man. Next time, whom will those voted for chiru vote next time? YSJ? Are these people so naive? Won't they have some self respect?

Most of them are stupid and dumb. They can be played with. Sorry to admit this, I have several relatives tat are so dumb. It comes because of their poor reading habits and lack of understanding as is the case with millions of Indians. Totally unaware of what is going on around.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 17 Jan 2013 03:39

RamaY wrote:If NM is the PM candidate and BJP puts up candidates in all 42 constituencies of AP, i have a feeling that they may get upto 10-15 MP seats.

This will have no relationship with people voting for YSRCP in assembly elections.

Not in non-T. Their stance on Telangana and their lack of organizational cadre don't allow them to even get 1% in a constituency. They have chances in Telangana to get a few seats by themselves and also get more seats if they tie up with TDP and/or TRS.

Right assessment can be done after this month, but current "potential" based on my own assessment from recent visit is:

INC 7
YSRCP 12
MIM 1
BJP 2
TRS 8
TDP 12

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Jan 2013 04:49

RamaY wrote:If NM is the PM candidate and BJP puts up candidates in all 42 constituencies of AP, i have a feeling that they may get upto 10-15 MP seats.

This will have no relationship with people voting for YSRCP in assembly elections.

and pigs will fly

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 17 Jan 2013 05:31

RamaY wrote:If NM is the PM candidate and BJP puts up candidates in all 42 constituencies of AP, i have a feeling that they may get upto 10-15 MP seats.

This will have no relationship with people voting for YSRCP in assembly elections.

If they elect Jagan, these people are too dumb to vote for Modi. Most of his voters think every thing is free when Jagan comes to power.. Health care, electricity, lands, houses all free and no need to work for any thing. Exactly opposite of modi's pholosophy.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 17 Jan 2013 05:37

Jagan will go with UPA for all sekular purposes. So, again, for all purposes, AP is lost. Again. Last time twas chiru. This time its Jagan. Next time, it will be T-statehood, perhaps. One thing at a time. Anyway, TDP will wither and die if it loses its third consecutive shot at power. Perhaps it'll break up and breakaway remnants can join the NDA formally?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 17 Jan 2013 05:59

Ashok, during his more "neutral" moments, used to say that the backers of TDP are trying to make some kind of a deal with BJP.

I hope, if the above is true, then they also try to include the other groupings. otherwise, it will be the same caste wars again.

any experiment with Hindutva in AP should be multfaceted and all groups should have a stake. it cannot be an avenue for fighting old caste/clan wars.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 17 Jan 2013 06:21

As much as opposed to politics of dynasty, in my view one way for TDP to revive is Naidu stepping back and make BalaKirshna as CM candidate. The people of AP fall for stupid tricks. They have not matured in decades.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Jan 2013 06:46

Very true. Most of the govt officials are very afraid of CBN coming back. Same with the bussinessmen.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Jan 2013 07:30

muraliravi wrote:
RamaY wrote:If NM is the PM candidate and BJP puts up candidates in all 42 constituencies of AP, i have a feeling that they may get upto 10-15 MP seats.

This will have no relationship with people voting for YSRCP in assembly elections.
and pigs will fly

Didn't you hear the saying "Emo, gurramegaraavachu!"

AP public is extremely upset with the INC central leadership for fcuking the state as per their wishes. When they look for alternatives in state they have a few and two alternatives in center.

In state, the alternatives are TDP, TRS and YSRCP. If the state is divided they have two choices in Andhra (TDP and YSRCP) and four alternatives in Telangana (TRS, TDP, YSRCP and BJP).

In a combined state situation:
1. YSRCP - as it is seen as the legitimate successor of YSR. Jagan also have a big point on his side that he stood steadfast against central C-leaders and he is unjustly framed in corruption charges (their statement is everyone is corrupt). Add two key supporting vote banks to this - EJ infra and MIM. So YSRCP will win without fail. If YSJ makes peace with INC before elections, his acceptability will fall down significantly.

2. TDP - CBN lost all moral credibility. It doesn't matter how/why. His padayatra did rejuvenate his party but not to the extent to get him winning seats. TDP will come out as a clear winner only if YSJ makes peace with INC before elections.

3. TRS - since in this scenario the t-state is not formed, TRS will lose its edge. But it may still win in the 4-5 districts where T-sentiment is strong. Perhaps it may get 30-35 seats.

State is separated - Andhra
1. The above logic will repeat.

State separated - Telangana
1. TRS will win majority (upto 70 seats)
2. bJP will win few seats (upto 7-8 seats)
3. Rest will go to TDP and INC.
4. YSRCP may not win more than a handful

General elections
1. If NM is the PM candidate, AP will give him at least a dozen seats. It will be from both regions.
2. If NM is not the PM candidate, majority of MP seats will got to YSRCP
3. In either case TDP may not cross 5-10 seats.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Jan 2013 07:32

Due to secularism neither TDP nor YSRCP will support BJP in center, unless TDP wisens up.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Jan 2013 08:11

RamaY wrote:Due to secularism neither TDP nor YSRCP will support BJP in center, unless TDP wisens up.

My stand stays the same, NM or no NM, BJP will get a big ZERO (best of best case 2 seats) in AP. I am not even from AP, but as an outsider I can see this much, that it is clear wishful thinking. To win seats you need an organization in the state. If you tell me that with NM, BJP can pull off 30 seats in UP, I can buy it, but in AP, its a big NO.

Anyway its is a useless discussion. To your point, Modi will be election in-charge or PM nominee and it will be announced by mid April. You'll be around, just read your post again next year, I am quite sure you'll find that you were wrong.

By the way you says 10-15 seats in AP, dude even in Gujarat, with modi as pm nominee, BJP will find it hard to cross 20 out of the 26 seats. (they got 14 in 2004, 15 in 2009)

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Jan 2013 08:19

Many parties and people got near unanimous mandate irrespective of organization in India.

When people want to vote for you, they will vote for your even if you put your cat as the candidate

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 17 Jan 2013 10:11

INC will still manage 10-15 LS seats from AP. Jagan will get 7-10 seats. MIM+TRS+Left will get 5-8. TDP will get 12-15 seats.

Vidhan Sabha will be the decider for TDP.

excluding the small parties like TRS/BJP/MIM/Left, basically INC, TDP, and Jagan will be competing for 240-250 seats.

let's keep that picture in mind. the 3 major contenders will have 250 seats to divide between themselves.

who here expects TDP to outperform both Jagan and INC, and win 150 out of those 250 seats?!

I am no expert, but IMO, TDP getting anywhere near a majority in the Assembly looks almost damn near impossible. like a mathematical impossibility.

we've been watching the trend in the byelections ever since Jagan split from INC. there is no indication that TDP is getting the kind of decisive swing that it needs to ride back into power.

Jagan has made serious inroads. enough to make him the kingmaker. what must be really frustrating for TDP is that INC continues to remain a significant player. yes, it has taken a beating, but not enough to relegate it to the margins like in UP or Bengal. INC still has a lot of fight left in this region, and they won't go down without a violent fight, if it comes to it.

what is the projection for AP over the next 5-10 years?

my thinking is that both INC and YSRCP will undergo further splintering and faction fighting.
TDP will probably go down a similar path. instead of one guy in TDP and one guy in YSRCP and one guy in INC, it will be 2-3 strongmen in each party who will rule from their subregional strongholds. CM gaddi will be shared on rotation basis, or perhaps AP will become the ultimate copy-cat and follow the Rajmata-philosophy. the men with real power might choose to foist a nobody onto the gaddi.

what I see is all the forces spiraling into greater confusion. unable to identify who is the enemy and who is the friend.
they will probably still keep their "national" alliances intact, but for all practical purposes, in their actual jobs at the state-level, the factions will be mired in confusion.

we can already see this happening. to an extent, the Telangana issue was probably propped up to prevent the splintering within the coastal biz-finance elites. it will be a major case study to see what happens as the T-issue dies down. this is partly why I am no longer inclined in favor of T. it feels like it was invented just to stop or turn the tide back on important transformations that need to take place.

I want the T-issue to die down. let's watch TRS and KCR carefully over the next few months. TRS's fate will be decided by 2014 elections. they can't continue for much longer. they've had a merry decade. the natak-bazi is getting old and people have already started to loose interest. if KCR is smart, he'll realize the undercurrents and try to make the best possible deal with INC.

once the T-issue dies down, the real fight for the future of Andhra will begin. without the T-glue keeping them together, situation is ripe for another round of subregional splintering on the Coast.

important question is who will choose to fight in favor of the status-quo? high EJ-penetration, fertile and economically rich geography, easy access to maritime trading: this is an intriguing combination. let's be under no illusions that many parties on the coast will not the see the business/finance/profit opportunities just waiting to be exploited as soon as they "assure" interested external parties to let certain internal parties continue their expansion without hindrance.

key is to identify those who are salivating at the profit possibilities. they will be the forward men of Company.

currently, this identification it very difficult. b/c the political narrative lacks any forceful presenter of the relevant facts about the threat posed to the sovereignty of the very land. INC, Jagan, and TDP, are all either outright anti-Indics or at best, "vacuum ideologists" who pretend to be great cultural upholders.

we'll have to wait and let the public figure out the utter bankruptcy of the vacuum ideology.
until then, there won't be the kind of narrative which will start the consolidation back in the Indics' favor.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 17 Jan 2013 12:17

The best the country can hope is a 3rd front supported by INC which pulls the rug in 2 years with all sorts of fighting and truth getting exposed. that is the bets country can expect.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Jan 2013 13:12

Having worked for BJP for many years in AP my view is BJP will get max of 2 MP seats in AP. Even this may not be possible if traditional voters for BJP in Hyd city who are the people basically from non Telangana areas and they may not take kindly to BJP stand on division. So even with division BJP getting benifit in the next election is nil. May be in longer run when there is no effective opposition in T State ( in case of division) and a political space is avaliable to it for filling. It has some 15to20% votes there.

We are all under estimating Jagan Criminal gang. It has large vested interests behind it. It has Conractors, Goverment servents, Builders. criminal gangs etc on one side and the "poor" people on the other side who expect free life with free power food, etc. Its criminal gangs and money power can not be matched even by INC now a days. Present CM of AP is somewhat honest - for a congress man and will not be supported by people habitual to eat public money.

We have to understand one thing - YSR changed entire culture in AP - Rampunt and well organized currption created a huge set of power groups which will supprt his gang and poor who want every thing free vote for it. Just like Democratic party in US. Plus EJ power is also behind him. MIM now going to support him and already they are going to town that INC is siding with BJP ( most stupid allegation aimed at diverting muslim votes to Jagan criminal gang)

So Jagan can not be under estemated. Only question is - Whether he will be in Jail at the time of elections or will be out of it and him much time he will get and how well he can organize things in any general elections.

TDP will find it difficult to spend money. With support to T state it will be wipped out in Non Telangana areas and will not get much in Telangana. CBN is on the path of coming back but to what extent - just 1%-2% short like last time and he will end in opposition and this time they will lose their party itself and see it disintegrated.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 17 Jan 2013 18:55

Will be good to see TDP wiped out and interesting to see who will fill that void. It looks like the BJP is a party of incompetents in AP so maybe the void will not be filled.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 17 Jan 2013 20:31

Narayana Rao garu,

the Hyd BJP voters are mostly from T. non-T folks in Hyd never really cared for or voted for BJP in significant numbers!!
not intending to start on that debate again. but just pointing out a correction, that's it.

gpati · Post by **gpati** » 17 Jan 2013 22:40

devesh wrote: who here expects TDP to outperform both Jagan and INC, and win 150 out of those 250 seats?!

Devesh garu,

TDP has failed to build a constituency among post 80's/90's generation who were ineligible (by virtue of their age) to vote in 1994 and 1999 elections (certain extent in 2003). Last time they went with PRP and this time they might go with Jagan. Transformation of TDP into dynastic fiefdom and lack of internal democracy are causing its downfall. Actually, disintegration of TDP might be good in long run. It is going to wake up lot of people from their slumber. At present, it is giving false sense of security.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 17 Jan 2013 23:12

Something like 2 seats for BJP is being floated here. Which 2 seats and I am interested to know. I think BJP in AP is going to get ZERO seats and in many seats it will even get ZERO votes. If in any two or three LS seats it comes third then that is a celebration and if in a seat they come second then that will be a top level achievement. If someone is a BJP supporter here do not even dream about AP. Even in warangal seat recently after all the hype they came third behind TRS and Jagan.

Trying to estimate/predict AP even 10 days before election is useless excercise and the things change rapidly at constituency level.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 17 Jan 2013 23:49

Muppalla wrote:Something like 2 seats for BJP is being floated here. Which 2 seats and I am interested to know. I think BJP in AP is going to get ZERO seats and in many seats it will even get ZERO votes. If in any two or three LS seats it comes third then that is a celebration and if in a seat they come second then that will be a top level achievement. If someone is a BJP supporter here do not even dream about AP. Even in warangal seat recently after all the hype they came third behind TRS and Jagan.

Trying to estimate/predict AP even 10 days before election is useless excercise and the things change rapidly at constituency level.

They have some chance of a few seats in Adilabad to Mahabubnagar corridor if they do some tie ups. They have gone down in Hyderabad areas so old Sec'bad MP seat is not possible.

pigs will fly

It is better BJP walahs to focus on pigs not falling in Karnataka than hoping pigs flying in AP. In non-T areas at least pigs were walking in the past but now they ended up as pork chops, obviously nobody eats them.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 17 Jan 2013 23:56

gpati wrote:
devesh wrote: who here expects TDP to outperform both Jagan and INC, and win 150 out of those 250 seats?!
Devesh garu,

TDP has failed to build a constituency among post 80's/90's generation who were ineligible (by virtue of their age) to vote in 1994 and 1999 elections (certain extent in 2003). Last time they went with PRP and this time they might go with Jagan. Transformation of TDP into dynastic fiefdom and lack of internal democracy are causing its downfall. Actually, disintegration of TDP might be good in long run. It is going to wake up lot of people from their slumber. At present, it is giving false sense of security.

Worse you might see Tamilnadu kind of setup with only regional parties than TDP disintegrating anywhere. In fact, INC is disintegrating in non-T and does see any relevance if they keep state united. In non-T not many are pinning blame TDP but squarely pointing at INC and they got avenue to go to YSRC and win money-wise also.

Currently best case for Congress is secret/open ties up with TRS in Telangana and YSRC in non-T and later have them merge like PRP. Their moves are also in the direction. Any other scenario, TDP has good advantage.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 18 Jan 2013 05:17

gpati garu,

interesting. I too have noticed that many in the 20's age group seem interested in Jagan.
"vacuum ideology" is wrecking havoc. among the youth in AP, the increasing encroachment by EJ's and increasing boldness of Islamics in the Hyd area are considered "minor" issues. there is too much naivete when it comes to the Abrahamics.

and this process is happening all over Andhra. there are no regional disparities when it comes to the attitudes of the "rising" generation in their 20's. they are all equally brainwashed in the self-destructive secularism.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Jan 2013 06:28

ShyamSP wrote: They have some chance of a few seats in Adilabad to Mahabubnagar corridor if they do some tie ups. They have gone down in Hyderabad areas so old Sec'bad MP seat is not possible.

Hope you are right. But if that happens then I gurantee that Modi get a simple majority on his own. 2LS seats from AP for BJP is huge tall order in my opinion. Even in Adilabad to Mahabubnangar corridor they may get to third spot and will have deposits in my take. Second spot itself is doubtful. Modi is not going to do any magic because the people who love Modi will think that they will be wasting their votes and bring back UPA if they vote to BJP. If I have power, I would not even put candidates and waste time in AP. They can fight to lose the HYD seat by 2 lakh votes.

This time it is all anger in AP and that anger has several directions.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Jan 2013 06:42

ShyamSP wrote: Right assessment can be done after this month, but current "potential" based on my own assessment from recent visit is:

INC 7
YSRCP 12
MIM 1
BJP 2
TRS 8
TDP 12

You can safely put BJP 2 into TDP and TRS kitty. If the state is not split INC getting 7 and YSRCP getting 12 is not possible in my opinion. They need to have real tacit understanding and the population needs to be made drugged fools for such a result.

I see INC=1; YSRP=18; TDP=12
OR
INC=1;YSRP=5;TDP=25

Tacit understanding or a coalition will backfire for both INC and Jagan. Post poll is a different situation. If INC really starts pouring money in the name of money for backward districts and targetting local caste leaders with huge money bags it is competing with Jagan. In such a situation, TDP will romp home. The only thing for INC is to surrender to Jagan and allow him to win with a hope to hold him for post poll adjustment.

devesh wrote:INC will still manage 10-15 LS seats from AP. Jagan will get 7-10 seats. MIM+TRS+Left will get 5-8. TDP will get 12-15 seats.

INC=15 is hugely impossible unless T forms and TRS is part of INC.

My summary - INC can calculate anything but there is no INC if they do not split the state.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 18 Jan 2013 06:59

Muppala garu,

BJP won in Narasapuram and Rajamundry/Kakinada in 1998/99. If NM is the candidate I think the loss will be TDPs and YSRCPs.

I think voters will split the votes, the assembly vote will go to YSRCP and Parliament vote will go to BJP. That said, the candidates should be reasonably good.

I think few movie actors in combination with NM will be a good call in AP for BJP.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Jan 2013 08:02

^^^
That was 1998 when they worked out the way worked it in Karnataka. Any place in India including Gujarat and excluding WB, Assam and NE if you cannot build appropriate caste coalition, every other great policy, talk and development are all bs. The other things are important to sustain the future but you first need to build a coalition. Kapus and related castes are looking for a break from both TDP and INC and are looking for a lead role in AP politics. BJP did court them and they got those independently. Currently they do not have any coalition other than victimhood based voting.

AP voters will not vote on national or any other based voting in the next election. It will be very local and sympathies are with Jagan. Dad killed and he is jailed for political reasons and that is line of thinking. This thinking is secondary to the primary caste colitions he is building at constituency levels.

For BJP to get film start is impossible and all of them are lining up with Jagan. Mohan Babu, Giri Babu, Akkineni nagarjuna and what not. Jagan's is a huge financial network and that has a solid structure across the state even at panchayat levels.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 18 Jan 2013 08:08

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Jan 2013 08:15

devesh wrote:gpati garu,

interesting. I too have noticed that many in the 20's age group seem interested in Jagan.
"vacuum ideology" is wrecking havoc. among the youth in AP, the increasing encroachment by EJ's and increasing boldness of Islamics in the Hyd area are considered "minor" issues. there is too much naivete when it comes to the Abrahamics.

and this process is happening all over Andhra. there are no regional disparities when it comes to the attitudes of the "rising" generation in their 20's. they are all equally brainwashed in the self-destructive secularism.

as brihaspati said in some other thread, things will change for good but it will take at the least another five to six years. People or duped into some thing else while the whole India/world are thinking differntly. AP is stripped of its clothes so that everyone can rape and also blame it for roaming around naked.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Jan 2013 08:41

A state's division or formation purely based on number of seats and no other consideration is being discussed.

Vayalar stumps Seemandhra Ministers

“How many Lok Sabha seats are you going to give us from Seemandhra region if we decide against dividing the State?” was the pointed question reportedly posed by AICC leaders to T.G. Venkatesh and three other Ministers during their meeting in New Delhi on Wednesday.
Mr. Venkatesh, Kasu Venkat Krishna Reddy, Erasu Pratap Reddy and Pinipe Viswaroop had an unpleasant experience when this question was posed by senior Congress leader Mr. Vayalar Ravi. The tone and tenor of AICC general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad was no different as he too virtually grilled them over the question whether Seemandhra leaders were confident of winning a sufficient number of Lok Sabha seats in the next general elections.
Mr. Ravi was quoted as telling these Ministers that the Jagan factor was strong in Seemandhra while the pro-Telangana sentiment still prevailed. “Telangana Congress leaders have promised us 16 out of 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana, if a separate State is carved out. Can you also give us a similar assurance if State is not divided?” he is believed to have asked the Ministers reminding them that it was on the strength of 33 MPs from Andhra Pradesh that the UPA rode back to power.
The Ministers were virtually tongue-tied and tried to argue that the Congress government would collapse if bifurcation took place. Mr. Ravi reportedly said the high command was quite conscious about the risks involved, including the very survival of the government if the State was divided.
He made it amply clear to the State Ministers that the high command was capable of grooming new faces and that the defection of a few leaders would not affect the Congress party’s prospects, sources said.

‘Too late’

He pointed out candidly that the Seemandhra leaders had come too late when the high command was almost getting ready to announce its decision.
“The all-party meeting saw majority parties favouring Telangana,” he said and reportedly cut short Mr. Pratap Reddy, when he tried to raise the concerns over sharing of river water.
Mr. Azad too told the Ministers that they had failed to lobby like the Telangana Congress leaders. He is understood to have remarked that even BSP leader Mayawati was pressuring the Centre to give Telangana

There is no difference from what we are thinking here. They are only thinking about 2014 elections and at the least getting 15 seats by means of merging with TRS.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 18 Jan 2013 08:56

There are multiple dimensions to the small states decision. We discussed it partially in the T thread.

Looks like the four players in UP (SP, BSP, BJP, INC)realized the need to have a space for themselves. Formation of T will impact the whole nation. I can see that UP will be divided before next elections (SP would want atleast 1/4 state under its control post 2016) and I wouldn't be surprised if Maha is also split. Gurkhaland is a possibility. The only large state that may still stand, atleast for now, would be TN but that too would split in next 5-10 yrs.

Yatha Raja Tatha Praja!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Jan 2013 09:18

I see a chance of Mid term polls in India when they decide on AP or not-decide on AP. The cycle of AP turmoil is just returning. First T leaning statements then agitations on either side and later talk of RayalaTelangana, Greater Hyd states. In the end stalemate of indecisiveness. Whatever congress can do irrespective of Jagan, TRS etc factors, the current state of AP is INC's waterloo. As I wrote a very longtime back it is the colleteral damage of those who want to destroy INC.

I don't really think INC wants to give a long rope to Modi. They may call for election in few months and the elections. In 1989 during the VP singh wave in North India they did the same.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 18 Jan 2013 10:14

Any division of AP will lead to fall of INC governament in the state and will irriparabilly damage INC (and TDP) in rest of the AP. Jagan may end up supporting UPA at Delhi - But is INC want to have Jagan with some power and base post T statehood? I do not thing so. If division is given with no concession to rest of the AP then INC can not expect rest of the AP to vote for them in near future. CBN has no future and will be too weak to fight Jagan criminal gang. INC may try to keep Jagan in Jail but people have own from jail and unfortunate simpathi waive with EJ support will be a factor. Further how far CBN can keep his party in tact is also a question if case T is annonced. He did nothing to consider other side of the argument. He wanted to save party in Telangana and there is any division he has to contest from Kuppan and has to limit himself to non Telangana areas which will be very angry on him. CBN can not contain a revolt with is going to come. With no money and peoples anger for being resposible for division may result in end of CBN political life. May be a Rajyasabha member and minister in 3rd front governament is the future course avaliable to him.

With regard to Hyd votes of BJP coming from T areas - Not quite true - Take Kishan Reddy - most of the people in his MLA seat are non Telangana people and this time they may not be keen to vote for him.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 18 Jan 2013 20:47

^^^
Amberpet, where Kishan Reddy is elected from, is majority T-people saar. there are migrants too, but among the Telugu population it's something like 65-35, with 65 being T people. Amberpet also used to have Muslim activism, and still does, with the mosque blaring prayers every morning and evening.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 18 Jan 2013 21:30

devesh wrote:^^^
Amberpet, where Kishan Reddy is elected from, is majority T-people saar. there are migrants too, but among the Telugu population it's something like 65-35, with 65 being T people. Amberpet also used to have Muslim activism, and still does, with the mosque blaring prayers every morning and evening.

You have to split like Natives, T-people, non-T people, Muslims. This area got one of the oldest settlements and has strong BJP sentiment. Neighboring area has new settlements are along Vijayawada highway from Malakpet to LB Nagar (Currently happening place on the east side of GHMC) and to Uppal to Tarnaka.

http://www.hindu.com/2008/02/16/images/ ... 610301.jpg
http://hyderabad-india-online.com/2009/ ... -and-mlas/