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PostPosted: 25 Feb 2013 10:02 
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andy, thanks for the PDF. And what's up with the "ji"?


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PostPosted: 25 Feb 2013 10:13 
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nachiket wrote:
andy, thanks for the PDF. And what's up with the "ji"?


Sorry bhava tend to get into this formal mode at work :roll:

P.S did find another interesting link abt the evolution of Aesa and Pesa. Be mindful that this has some reference from our infamous raptor fan from down under!

http://www.microwavejournal.com/article ... technology


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PostPosted: 25 Feb 2013 14:19 
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ramana wrote:
So how big was the diamond in which the Mirage 2000 landed the bombs from 3km away?
And what was the accuracy of the SU 30MKI bombs?

The Jag was delivering from 500 feet altitude and doesnt count.

Ramanagaru my guesstimate is 200 foot diamond.

But I would quibble with the idea that the Jag's accuracy can be discounted. At 500 feet and 500 to 600 kts - about 1000 kmph the (automated) system to release the weapons has to be perfect because any inaccuracy in determining altitude and a half second early or late delivery would be a phusssss... Manual delivery is likely to be very inaccurate anyway.

The Su 30 was aiming for target no 5. Here is a screen grab from the video
Image


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PostPosted: 25 Feb 2013 16:32 
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4 more videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eG54f88nxmU


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M100yIX5Qoc


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm8H6IdTObo


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRvnQvw_vnY


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 01:15 
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shiv wrote:
ramana wrote:
So how big was the diamond in which the Mirage 2000 landed the bombs from 3km away?
And what was the accuracy of the SU 30MKI bombs?

The Jag was delivering from 500 feet altitude and doesnt count.

Ramanagaru my guesstimate is 200 foot diamond.

But I would quibble with the idea that the Jag's accuracy can be discounted. At 500 feet and 500 to 600 kts - about 1000 kmph the (automated) system to release the weapons has to be perfect because any inaccuracy in determining altitude and a half second early or late delivery would be a phusssss... Manual delivery is likely to be very inaccurate anyway.


Thanks shiv.

So if we take the 200 feet diagonal as the diameter of the circle in which the payloads land we get the figure of merit for the aircraft for dumb bomb delivery.

200 feet ~ 60m from a height of 3000 m ie 20 mils accuracy Mirage 2000

What do we know about the SU30 MKI dropped payloads?


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 07:22 
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shiv wrote:


Looks like No.2 overshot the target. Maybe the smoke plume from No.1's strike interfered with the second's visual alignment. If I remember correctly, something similar happened at the last Vayu Shakti.


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 08:05 
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srai wrote:
Looks like No.2 overshot the target. Maybe the smoke plume from No.1's strike interfered with the second's visual alignment. If I remember correctly, something similar happened at the last Vayu Shakti.


These things happen all the time. I don't think anyone should end up believing that shooting anything is easy even with practice. Try hitting a 2 cm target at 10 meters with a rifle. The ratio of distance to target size is 2/1000 - 0.2%. You won't get one shot in ten on target. Try that when you are running and you understand what shooting really means. At 1000 meters hitting a 2 meter area is seriously difficult from a plane flying at 1000 kmph. If you look at it that way the shooting at Iron Fist was spectacular.

Aerial bombardment is a chancy affair and the entire bombing campaign of world war 2 did not have the effect that would be expected from the tonnage expended. Ditto Vietnam, where the US dropped more tons of bombs than all of WW2.

That is why multiple passes may be needed. Single pass attack may not only miss, but they may hit a decoy or an unimportant target requiring a second run by which time SAM batteries will have woken up and had breakfast. PGMs really came into their own only in the 1990s with Gulf war 1 and Kosovo. They are useful only for limited conflicts because they are so expensive. So dumb bombs and multiple passes over target will be with us for some time to come.


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 11:26 
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shiv wrote:
That is why multiple passes may be needed. Single pass attack may not only miss, but they may hit a decoy or an unimportant target requiring a second run by which time SAM batteries will have woken up and had breakfast. PGMs really came into their own only in the 1990s with Gulf war 1 and Kosovo. They are useful only for limited conflicts because they are so expensive. So dumb bombs and multiple passes over target will be with us for some time to come.


Which means we need more Sudarshan's; but IAF thinks there are only 25 targets each in Pak and China worth of it...


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 13:13 
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if you think about it, IAF has NOT been splurging $$ in even kitting up each and every M2K, upg Jag and MKI - close to 300 airframes with a laser pod and atleast 50*300 of imported LGB kits - griffon/spice/paveway etc.

they just dont seem that interested in PGMs either out of cost issue, effectiveness issue or happy to wait for domestic efforts to provide.


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 15:26 
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^^^

If you look at open source info like SIPRI, the IAF has less than 1,500 LGB/PGM kits (few tens (<50) or hundreds (<500) each of Paveway II, Griffin-III, KAB-500, Spice and Sudarshan). Almost all the PGM/LGB kits are for 1,000lb (or 450kg) class of bombs.

At least from previous orders, one can infer that when it comes to PGM quantities the IAF thinks in tens or hundreds, but not in thousands.


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 19:12 
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^^ In the NSG vid, was the dog also rappelled into the field from a Mi-17?


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 20:53 
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Old dogs claim the avg gunnery and bombing skills of todays pilots are far inferior to the old school ww2 and korean war pilots because they do little of it...and fast jets make accuracy harder.


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PostPosted: 26 Feb 2013 22:48 
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shiv wrote:
... So dumb bombs and multiple passes over target will be with us for some time to come.

That is simply not true, the cost of no-frills smart bombs kits like the JDAM and Paveway has come down to 25-30k USD(Though this price may be applicable to only the US). To put that in perspective 1 billion USD (with which you could at best hope to buy a dozen Rafale fighters) will buy you 33-40,000 such bombs. At this rate it doesn't make economic sense to drop dumb bombs any more.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 03:50 
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^^^
Whereas a Mk82 500 Lb bomb costs 267$ (circa 2000) according to Wiki.
There is something to be said about 2 orders of magnitude difference in cost.

--Ashish


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 03:51 
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See its all about targets : Area targets and point targets.

Area targets with dumb bombs and point targets with PGMs.

In both cases the tonnage at the target means its sure destruction.

By having a smaller CEP for even the dumb bombs, the target destruction is ensured.
One measure of merit is the tonnage divided by square of CEP. So per sortie. Add all the area targets and compute number of sorties. Figure in loss rate.

About point targets the goal should be on target dead for each PGM. That means the tonnage should be adequate for the target.

I figure due to the punyness of the 450kg bomb, it will take 1.5 hits to take out point targets.

Then comes the concept of hard and very hard targets that need larger tonnage PGMs.

IAF seems to assess that TSP doesn't have many hard targets!
Or they know they can't procure hard target defeat munitons.
Nor do they trust DRDO/OFB capability for the manufacture of locally developed stuff.
The pdf in CAS journal says HSLD casings have 75% reject rate.

The current 450 kg (1000lbs) has a cast steel case and gives OK concrete defeat capability. It would be better with forged steel casing and/or improved CEP for the Sudarshan kit by flying it into vulnerable points. The wobble is not encouraging as it uses up energy better used in flying accurately into the target.

But nothing beats momentum which a 1000 kg gives.

Abhik also consider the risks of second pass over dense SAM defences.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 07:12 
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Misraji wrote:
^^^
Whereas a Mk82 500 Lb bomb costs 267$ (circa 2000) according to Wiki.
There is something to be said about 2 orders of magnitude difference in cost.

--Ashish



more relevant would be how much does OFB charge the IAF for such a bomb. I somehow doubt our production costs are so low.

75% reject rate of HSLD casings is a indicator of which quality domain they operate in. :lol:


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 09:02 
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abhik wrote:
shiv wrote:
... So dumb bombs and multiple passes over target will be with us for some time to come.

That is simply not true, the cost of no-frills smart bombs kits like the JDAM and Paveway has come down to 25-30k USD(Though this price may be applicable to only the US). To put that in perspective 1 billion USD (with which you could at best hope to buy a dozen Rafale fighters) will buy you 33-40,000 such bombs. At this rate it doesn't make economic sense to drop dumb bombs any more.


No. There will be no large scale change over to PGMs. PGMs are great when you know exactly what you have to hit. Important targets are normally hidden and mobile assets are moved around so pre-war recce may not reveal where they are. So while PGMs have a role the risk of second and third passes to hit targets that are spotted during an attack will be taken in a hot war.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 19:23 
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ramana wrote:
See its all about targets. Area targets and point targets.

Area targets get dumb bombs and point targets get PGMs.



Ummm...no :wink: . The answer is it depends. Is an enemy bunker a point target? The US has been known to regularly drop a single JDAM on one of those, but let me know in the next 10 years if the Indians do so...except if it is like an all important bunker on Tiger Hill, when they will.

Ironically, the IAF is as likely to drop a PGM on an Area target - the CBU-105 Sensor Fuzed Weapon, a good old fashioned dumb cluster bomb smartened with a wind corrected guidance unit that deploys 40 heat-seeking skeets that can cause some major problems for the recipients.

So really, it is about availability and affordability. Even when GW I was being bankrolled by the Gulf states, only 8% of munitions fired by Allied Forces were precision guided, because they were still not widely manufactured or issued. GW II that went upto 60% - and largely due to a new kind of PGM, the JDAM.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 19:33 
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usaf/nato also drop pgm's on targets after the air defences have been thoroughly sanitised - involving vast amounts of elint/awacs/jstars capability that the rest of the world does not have. their game is to avoid their own casualties and have nice tv images to show sixpack-people
we will not have the time, space or capability and will have to go in lo-lo-lo and smack everything down
dont need pgms for that but they do help


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 20:19 
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Targeting laser guided PGMs is fine if you have someone loitering about illuminating a target with laser - something that may fail with smoke/dust. For known targets accurate GPS signals will be needed for guidance, and we depend on everyone but us for GPS signals. For IR guidance - we are still well behind state of the art in what we build in house. So exporters are willing to sell us all this at exorbitant rates and with the risk of wartime shutting off of GPS signals and failure to supply spares.

it is the same old story. We are way way away form shifting to a pure PGM force.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 20:36 
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Until we get our own gps satellites, cannot invest in gps guided munitions. Glonass may nor may not be available..rus could always create temporary issues in the relevant sats to not offend their neighbour. I am not sure gagan is anything beyond a airplane navigation play and that too over indian landmass only, not over the sea or cheen.

Our iir tech is a decade behind and any form of iir or laser is defeated by weather, smoke, dust.

Looks like good raw gunnery and bombing skill is the only route open.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 22:52 
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Misraji wrote:
^^^
Whereas a Mk82 500 Lb bomb costs 267$ (circa 2000) according to Wiki.
There is something to be said about 2 orders of magnitude difference in cost.

--Ashish

The cost of the munition, smart or other wise is only a part of the actual cost of delivering it on the target. You must also consider the cost of the aircraft delivering the munitions, amongst other things. Lets consider for arguments sake that a strike fighter(whose main utility is deliver bombs) costs say 100M USD. This includes initial acquisition cost, spares & fuel over its lifetime, pilot/crew training etc. Now say this fighter drops 200 munitions in conflicts over its lifetime. That would translate into fighter cost per munition dropped of 500K USD. If one is using only dumb bombs then the cost goes up further. One reason is poor accuracy. If you have to drop twice the number of bombs for the same target then the fighter cost for the same target doubles to 1M USD. Plus consider the additional risk cost of putting the fighter in harms way vie lower altitude drop, multiple passes etc.
The figures I have used are completely made up, but I think you will appreciate that a dumb bomb may cost 100 less than its PGM version but the actual cost of getting the bomb on target(the figure that really counts) is a completely different matter.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 22:59 
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Quote:
we will not have the time, space or capability and will have to go in lo-lo-lo and smack everything down



lo lo lo is not an option with the heavy AA defence our opponents will throw up

It will be part of the mix but a lot will have to be medium alt runs


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 23:12 
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shiv wrote:
PGMs are great when you know exactly what you have to hit. Important targets are normally hidden and mobile assets are moved around so pre-war recce may not reveal where they are.

How will a non PGM be any better at this?
Quote:
So while PGMs have a role the risk of second and third passes to hit targets that are spotted during an attack will be taken in a hot war.
Any risk taking appetite reduces massively after the first few losses. Take for example Kargil where the Mirage-2000s with their LGBs took over after a few fighters/ helicopters being brought down by MANPADS while launching dumb bombs/rockets.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 23:31 
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Lalmohan wrote:
usaf/nato also drop pgm's on targets after the air defences have been thoroughly sanitised - involving vast amounts of elint/awacs/jstars capability that the rest of the world does not have. their game is to avoid their own casualties and have nice tv images to show sixpack-people
we will not have the time, space or capability and will have to go in lo-lo-lo and smack everything down
dont need pgms for that but they do help

We have to hit greater number of targets with lesser number of assets compared to USAF/NATO in any of their recent wars. That only makes the case for PGMs stronger. Plus Kargil has shown us the limits using dumb-munitions.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 23:35 
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abhik is right

If we have the money we should go with PGMs at least for all high value targets.

where feasible we have to avoid getting into an attritional scenario


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 23:46 
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ramana wrote:
Abhik also consider the risks of second pass over dense SAM defences.

Ramana-ji, conventional SAMs can be taken out, and is one of the top priories at the start of a conflict. But it is impossible to take out MANPADs unless you have control on ground. With proliferating MANPADs any low altitude bombing runs(required by dumb munitions) become extremely risky. We have already got a taste of this in Kargil.


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 23:53 
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All the more reasons to go for PGMS to keep out of range. While the pilots are brave hearts/warriors and all that their main purpose is to kill the enemy without getting hurt.
And do it allover again till all the enemy is killed dead.
Each plane is truck to deliver the munitions on target.

Following 2010 paper by Group Captain Bhanoji Rao answers the intricacies.. in AriPower Journal:

Air launched weapons


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PostPosted: 27 Feb 2013 23:57 
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How many sorties in Iron Fist and in what time?


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 01:01 
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equally important is attrition (i think its more important)

as aircraft become more complex and numbers are less - we cannot afford losses of a certain level and beyond

till we get UCAVs and things may change


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 02:06 
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Looks like 230 a/c of all types participated.
I would like to know how many repeat flights any of the attack craft made and what was the turn around time?

In 1998 -99 timeframe there was Exercise Gajraj that had a high sortie rate and day-night ops.
Other than different a/c and ~ ten years past, how was Iron Fist different?


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 02:22 
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Ramana sir,

It would be difficult to extrapolate the availability of planes during a real war even if we knew the repeat flights and turn around time for Iron fist. I mean you could have a plane go through two or more bomb runs with only fuel and armament reload time in between as long as the cumulative time is less than the MTBF.

But can this be sustained over a week. I highly doubt it.

Plus what happens to the logistics behind making the planes fly. At Iron fist only a couple of planes from each squadron flew. Can it hold up to the increased sortie rates of the entire squadron? We (the people) will never know that until a couple of years after a war.


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 05:06 
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Here the IAF is flying off 3-5 airfields. Moi is sure there is a Phalcon seeing everything and routing everyone onto the targets. There is probably also a Aerostat seeing everything, in addition there are multiple flights of UAVs to provide video and FLIR feeds.
Apt demonstration of a short war, except that everything is very well scripted. Real war will have this plus sudden developments and events happenings.
If Pakistan is the enemy, they will put up a staunch fight for a few days, then as usual, they will let out a long cold fart and collapse / downhillski / surrender.


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 06:02 
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abhik wrote:
shiv wrote:
PGMs are great when you know exactly what you have to hit. Important targets are normally hidden and mobile assets are moved around so pre-war recce may not reveal where they are.

How will a non PGM be any better at this?
Quote:
So while PGMs have a role the risk of second and third passes to hit targets that are spotted during an attack will be taken in a hot war.
Any risk taking appetite reduces massively after the first few losses. Take for example Kargil where the Mirage-2000s with their LGBs took over after a few fighters/ helicopters being brought down by MANPADS while launching dumb bombs/rockets.

Abhik we used 6 PGMs in the whole war. Most of the mud moving was done by dumb bombs. Despite that we had no losses after the initial phase when the extent of defences were still being ascertained. The losses occurred when the extent of defences were still being assessed - not because dumb bombs were being used.

If you don''t know where a target is you have to search and to search you have to fly over target more than once. Often a target will not become a target till it fires at you. The risk of being hit are higher but that is a risk the air force lives with. Jasjit Singh's book on air warfare is very clear about this. In the initial phases of a war there will be losses when SEAD is being done. A 10% loss rate could occur at this phase. Such a high rate cannot be sustained during the course of a campaign. PGMs in this initial phase would be most productive in keeping losses down.

A successful dumb bomb attack is as successful as a successful PGM but ten times cheaper. A failed PGM is as much of a failure as a failed dumb bomb and ten times more expensive. The air force has the means to do the math.

But all this PGM business is all theory. We don't have our own mil grade GPS so we have to depend on line of sight Laser guidance. Can't see, can't use. It's as simple as that.


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 06:29 
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ramana wrote:
Looks like 230 a/c of all types participated.
I would like to know how many repeat flights any of the attack craft made and what was the turn around time?

In 1998 -99 timeframe there was Exercise Gajraj that had a high sortie rate and day-night ops.
Other than different a/c and ~ ten years past, how was Iron Fist different?


Ramana I can try and guess (approximate)

Flypast
1 x MiG 27 pulling bnnner
1 x MiG 29 breaking sound barrier
5 x Jaguar
5 x MiG 29
5 x Mirage 2000
3 x Su 30
1 x Tiger Moth
3 x Sarangs
1 X LCH
1 each Cheetah, Chetak, ALH
2 x Mi 17

Attacks:
6 x MiG 21
4 x Sukhoi
4 x MiG 27
4 x Jaguar
2 X MiG 29 (patrol)
2 x LCA
2 x Mirage 2000
2 x Hawk
2 x Mi 17 for NSG
2 x ALH
4 x Mi 35
2 x An 32
1 X Il 76
? x Il 78
1 x Heron UAV
1 x Embraer
1 x C-130

That makes only 70. I may have failed to mention some displays/demos.

Sortie rate in 1971 was was 500 per day IIRC


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 07:12 
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Quote:
Despite that we had no losses after the initial phase when the extent of defences were still being ascertained. The losses occurred when the extent of defences were still being assessed - not because dumb bombs were being used.


losses stopped because we discarded previous patterns and stayed out of manpad range - pgm or no pgms


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 07:27 
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Pgms are available all over the map from the 2kg guided hand grenades for jsf Shiv likes to rant about sometimes to the huge 5000lb ones
We cannot afford all

Which are the most useful for us?

I am thinking a cheap sfw desi cbu105 for mobile and area targets and a 1000lb for hard targets covers 90% of our use cases. But both must be produced domestically and have dual laser and desi gps guidance to be considered affordable and reliable.


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 11:45 
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The process of employing PGMs just starts with buying them.

Purely due to cost limitations of training hours and dropping live munitions, not all pilots in a squadron will get to be qualified on them. For that reason alone the skew towards dumb munitions being dropped in the majority of missions will be a persistent trend.


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 14:34 
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India should have 60 squadrons of fighter aircraft


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PostPosted: 28 Feb 2013 14:45 
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60 squadrons = 60 * 20 = 1200 fighters
200 = Rafales
300+ = Sukhoi MKI
200 = LCA mk1 and mk2
69 = Mig 29
59 = Mirage 2000
130 = Jaguar
250 = Mig 21 & 27

Future : 200 PAKfa & 300 AMCA to replace Mig 21,27 & Jaguar


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