Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 05 Apr 2013 15:30

dassault has said for a few months now that they are not going to be held accountable for HAL production quality
nothing new here

Vipin_Upadhyay · Post by **Vipin_Upadhyay** » 05 Apr 2013 20:14

While we should squeeze foreign companies as much as we can, just a question, why Dassault or any company should be held accountable for HAL quality?

by now HAL has decent experience of license producing 4.5 gen. fighters like MKI, so onus is on HAL also to stand-up & tell MOD that they are ready to ensure quality & timely delivery.

Also, IAF & MOD from their side start tightening screw on HAL to own-up & come-up with a robust expansion plan, else MOD should not be shy to explore private new ventures like Tata or Mahindra, L&T etc. I am sure with 15 billion dollars at stake these private players will be more than willing to share "burden" from HAL.

This will go a long way in developing mil-ind. complex in India & also future mass production of LCA-2, MCA, FGFA etc.

Indian defense sector is standing at a critical juncture here, we may not get such high value opportunity again. A NaMo like out-of-box thinking is needed here

, jingo in me hopes NaMo wins 2014 & takes over defence ministry

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 05 Apr 2013 20:21

Lalmohan wrote:dassault has said for a few months now that they are not going to be held accountable for HAL production quality
nothing new here

Yet it is comfortable in working with Reliance which has zero experience in aerospace. Really who they think they are BSing?

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 05 Apr 2013 20:30

There was a recent interview with Gen VK Singh where he said that for the cost of buying Rafale, we can actually buy Dassault Systems itself. I thought he was exaggerating. Then I Googled.

India's Rafale purchase cost: $15 Billion (EUR 11.5 Billion)
Dassault Systems market capitalization: EUR 11 Billion

Gen. VKS is actually correct!

The only factor (which I admit is not small) is that the $15 Billion will be a staggered payment. So, yum-bee-yays can compute NPV and all that. But still, the costs of Rafale are astronomical

Gen VKS interview here:

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 05 Apr 2013 20:37

After checking out HAL, who they had never dealt with before despite a long history in India, Dassault opened the 100% owned DASIPL subsidiary and signed a JV with Reliance to build the Rafale. While the implications are clear, this is a chance for us to create a completely new private aircraft company and we should grab it. We badly need an element of competition in this space and it will send a very welcome jolt through the entire DPSU setup. Not to want this is very bad news for India.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 05 Apr 2013 20:56

Vipul wrote: Yet it is comfortable in working with Reliance which has zero experience in aerospace. Really who they think they are BSing?

Dassault figured that the people who built the world's largest petroleum refinery with zero experience can build a Rafale factory better than HAL. Why should we question them if they are ready to take full responsibility?

The real problem is that MoD and the DPSUs smell the end of their gravy train, regardless of what is good for India.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 05 Apr 2013 21:02

1. Dassault is not for sale.
2. Even after you buy dassault...you will have to pay them a similar. Amount to build 126 rafales

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Apr 2013 21:07

Reliance or hal will initially have to just assemble from parts totally imported..then in few yrs move to pindigize some parts using the offset deals .... These would normally flow into hals own machine shops and network of smaller suppliers. Reliance could actually subcontract such work to hal or its same set of suppliers.

Its about loss pf control at the top end of he gravy train and guaranteed work both for building and later base repair. If reliance builds, naturally they will service the fleet as well both in factory and in major bases using field technicians.

kmc_chacko · Post by **kmc_chacko** » 05 Apr 2013 22:00

It is better Reliance or TATA or L&T or M&M to become partner rather than HAL.

HAL is already burdened and it has already delayed many projects. When PAKFA will be rolled out HAL will be the prime producer

If take in to account productions like Su-30MKI, Su-30MKI Block II, Tejas Mk I, Tejas Mk II, PAKFA, FGFA, AMC, upgradation of Mig-29, Mirage, Mig-27, Jaguar it will be surely not right thing to give MRCA project also to HAL.

You should not lay all the eggs in same basket, it will destroy you quickly.

we need multiple sources for our Defense products. MoD should let private parties to play, they will give you best offer for best products.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 05 Apr 2013 22:04

TATA, Reliance, or M&M becoming a partner will spell death for HAL. They survive on a monopoly.

manum · Post by **manum** » 05 Apr 2013 22:17

TATA reliance m&m will become second fiddle to foreign vendors....

ultimately what ll happen is India will get fighters while net worth of these firms increased...

no. tech gain whatsoever...

so that is not an option...If HAL is not good enough go sell. your plane to USA where the assembly is equally good...

We will build our lowtech plane here only...Its goddamn obvious that we wanted to gain the tech through HAL and trickle it down slowly pvts.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 05 Apr 2013 22:21

Vipul wrote:
Lalmohan wrote:dassault has said for a few months now that they are not going to be held accountable for HAL production quality
nothing new here
Yet it is comfortable in working with Reliance which has zero experience in aerospace. Really who they think they are BSing?

But to be honest, Dassault will be able to have go reliance go their way, where as they will have no leverage with HAL. Reliance will actually do as they are told.

If I was a businessman, I would not take any accountability for HAL either.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 05 Apr 2013 22:23

mahadevbhu wrote: 2. Even after you buy dassault...you will have to pay them a similar. Amount to build 126 rafales

True, so we should by Dassault anyway. What a 2x escalation such amounts are already trivial for us. No?

Eric Leiderman · Post by **Eric Leiderman** » 05 Apr 2013 22:37

If the contract is properly formulated (and that the biggie) There is nothing wrong with Reliance handling the project.
With escalations in price built in and timelines for production fm raw materials set in stone. We should give in to this clause fm The French and ask for a pound of flesh in return. Never underestimate reliance they might teach the French a lesson or 2

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 05 Apr 2013 22:39

Cancel Rafale, and focus on Kaveri and LCA MK2 or perhaps Mk3 with Rafale specs. Make it more agile and deliver on staged process model.

manum · Post by **manum** » 05 Apr 2013 22:56

yeah sure...Reliance will...if they ll get chance and monopoly, they ll rather sell the IAF in form of shares...

and also justify it morally...when u teach a students you first establish his/her place...You dont just give dangerous knowledge without establishing responsibility...

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 05 Apr 2013 23:30

Honestly...I don't trust Reliance to be too ethical. Tata is far better in terms of reputation.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 05 Apr 2013 23:41

did some one say buy Dassault..
Sir , why not Lockheed Martin at 30.25 billion , all our problem related to tech / 5th gen will be solved

Whoever builds Rafale, at the end of the day they will be just assembling right. Since if such manufacture could have resulted in
tech gain for us then HAL has been assembling fighters for so many decades and the result is that for LCA it is ADA which is involved in
development and HAL is still taking time to setup a production line for it.

manum · Post by **manum** » 05 Apr 2013 23:42

Its not abt TATA or Reliance..but about the technology gained through taxpayers money....

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 05 Apr 2013 23:45

^^^ tech is contained in peoples minds, sops and practises of a company, standards, ecosystem of science, technology, etc.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Apr 2013 00:10

mahadevbhu wrote:Honestly...I don't trust Reliance to be too ethical. Tata is far better in terms of reputation.

doing what? what missions? answer in terms national security, safety-critical systems and real time precision engineering... forget r&d, but any existing production line to answer these?

don't bring in health care engineering products and similar that does not suffice as this involves defence related. of course, i am all for reliance and tatas getting in.. but, they can't just like that jumpstart without any baseline establishments.

here is an oppty: there are problems with HAL. how about listing them out, and engage tatas and reliance to consult and check them out?

sourab_c · Post by **sourab_c** » 06 Apr 2013 01:29

When will the new UN arms trade treaty be signed? If the MRCA is signed after the UN treaty, would it place more restrictions on the use of the jets?

PratikDas · Post by **PratikDas** » 06 Apr 2013 01:31

When people or teams are part of the problem, they don't cooperate with external reviewers or consultants. Does anyone argue against HAL needing reform? Why pitch a private company against HAL to make it an "us versus them" situation when the conclusion is already known?

New Indian Express: DRDO chief wants augmented production lines in HAL, BDL

Not mincing any words on HAL, the DRDO said the company must augment the production facilities for the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) -- Tejas.

“Today, HAL has 3rd generation production lines and we need modern ones to replace it. Tejas is a 4th generation aircraft and if we have the vision of exporting this aircraft one day, then rolling out quality aircraft is the key. The problems faced by Tejas are all related to auxiliary systems, be it the fuels lines or lightening arrester. Tejas Mk-II will be the future mainstay and we need to address quality concerns at the earliest,” Saraswat said.

This was said not 10 years ago but on 17th March 2013.

The credibility of HAL's experience is in question when they seem to not have been able to foresee that mass production would require investment into modern manufacturing methods - this after all those years assembling kits.

HAL needs to exist but it needs competition. What HAL is worried about is a brain drain to private Indian companies offering better salaries and better working conditions at the expense of accountability, performance reviews, longer hours, etc. because then HAL would have to improve to win talent back. The private company won't be starting from scratch. They'll be starting with the young and brightest HAL employees who find HAL too restrictive and who are willing to jump ship for more worthwhile technological challenges than corporate challenges in trying to improve a lethargic system from within. HAL needs to be worried. It will not reform without the threat of becoming irrelevant.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 06 Apr 2013 01:43

No one can replace HAL, no other Indian company private or public has large infrastructure that is needed. An airport to fligh test, hangers, experienced test pilots, tracking equipment. Final integration will have to be done at HAL.

Best we could hope for is that some major private sector company comes on board (if HAL allows that) it could reduce significant burden on HAL by assembling many systems that HAL can put togather and test certify.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Apr 2013 01:54

shrink-wrapping HAL is the only option. right sizing the teams, and bringing on board right kind of consultants to start with. some corporate culture capitalistic management needed at the same ensuring basic minimum social welfare is attended to. heck, if the brains are paid well, what more is required?

established production line needs augmentation for both LCA and other a/cs (if Rafale agrees). this is where dr. saraswat feels, if HAL gets to buck up, the established lines could help enable faster induction of home grown systems.

What is required is list out what HAL has to do, then engage with a mission objective on the correction process. HAL can be uniquely placed on the lines of Boeing,GE and LM, if they think ahead., and engage private participation, while still have a large integration and process control with them.

The right combination of engineers and managers from private, public and gov regulatory bodies, could drive the project to perfection. The team has to be a joint effort team, where focused groups could engage on the project with a common mission. that ensures, proper management, right decision at right time, etc. same problems facing world over, and the only way they have sorted it out by established capability and maturity process model.

GE is enough example to follow.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 06 Apr 2013 02:00

mahadevbhu wrote:1. Dassault is not for sale.
2. Even after you buy dassault...you will have to pay them a similar. Amount to build 126 rafales

No one is advocating buying Dassault. It was a benchmark to show how expensive the MMRCA purchase is

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 06 Apr 2013 02:26

Katare wrote:No one can replace HAL

Dassault disagrees. In fact they are willing to GUARANTEE they can make it work with someone else. Someone else who has no aviation experience.

They remain UNWILLING to make the same guarantee for HAL.

Katare wrote:no other Indian company private or public has large infrastructure that is needed. An airport to fligh test, hangers, experienced test pilots, tracking equipment.

All those can be bought with money, none are serious obstacles.

The MRCA is beginning to look less and less about defense and more about propping up an aging dinosaur.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Apr 2013 02:49

more about propping up an aging dinosaur

Or as the French prefer, a very corrupt private company.

I would not be surprised if the quality is great, but will not be surprised if the cost escalates.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Apr 2013 03:34

what do you think quality is?

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 06 Apr 2013 05:46

NRao wrote:Or as the French prefer, a very corrupt private company.

I would not be surprised if the quality is great, but will not be surprised if the cost escalates.

In the immortal words of the late great Deng Xiaoping:

"It does not matter what colour a cat is, as long as it catches mice."

A Dassault-Reliance joint venture, even with corruption, will deliver faster and with higher quality than HAL.

As for cost escalation, HAL will also escalate costs through delays.

All-in-all, if Dassault can be made to sign a tight contract guaranteeing timely deliveries with quality, I don't care if they partner with HAL, Reliance, or with a car mechanic in a corner shop in Jhumritalaiya.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Apr 2013 05:48

True.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 06 Apr 2013 07:44

show reliance a firm order for 200-300 aircraft and they will get the required infra and people in place within no time

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 06 Apr 2013 08:27

^^^
Why not offer Reliance (or any other private player) a second production line of the LCA Tejas? Let them compete with HAL on producing it. Will they bite? I doubt it.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 06 Apr 2013 08:35

NRao wrote: Or as the French prefer, a very corrupt private company.

Corrupt how?

They've already won, I don't understand how any corruption at this point would benefit Dassault.

NRao wrote:I would not be surprised if the quality is great, but will not be surprised if the cost escalates.

The contract requires them to deliver in a specified quantity, quality, time and price

If the cost rises (ie due to corruption), Dassault has to cover it. They have absolutely zero reason to choose a corrupt company now, in fact, quite the opposite.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Apr 2013 08:53

the media is full of hoax price for the whole deal, in addition conflicting news about the number of a/cs- 126 - 180 - 200. Now, the dork variable is the cost, where it started out somewhere in $9b-$10b, stayed for sometime at $12b, then went all the way to $20b., last I heard is $15b. Even a stock value can be easily predicted against such value misappropriation.

who is making all this up? if time is a factor in the contract, then expiry date should say a lot of price increase too. that is where corruption kicks in., or it is too late for the product to be in as latest technology, and devaluation begins... but the corrupt people, could maintain the price, and make huge money. anything is possible in the corrupt minds, and you and I can't think or dream about it.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Apr 2013 09:04

while RIL or any pvt player will need to setup a new production line, neither does HAL have a space or infra ready for rafale production. the existing small facility in BLR is dedicated to hawk and Tejas now that jaguar production is over. koraput is doing the MKI. kanpur does transport a.c I think.
they were scouting for land around blr to setup Pakfa and mrca lines I think.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 06 Apr 2013 09:16

GeorgeWelch wrote:..
The contract requires them to deliver in a specified quantity, quality, time and price

If the cost rises (ie due to corruption), Dassault has to cover it. They have absolutely zero reason to choose a corrupt company now, in fact, quite the opposite.

Your being naive, Dassault/Reliance may use corruption to shirk these very same requirements.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 06 Apr 2013 10:05

abhik wrote:
GeorgeWelch wrote:..
The contract requires them to deliver in a specified quantity, quality, time and price

If the cost rises (ie due to corruption), Dassault has to cover it. They have absolutely zero reason to choose a corrupt company now, in fact, quite the opposite.
Your being naive, Dassault/Reliance may use corruption to shirk these very same requirements.

That would be Dassault corrupting the government, they still want the company THEY'RE dealing with to be honest

What is Dassault's incentive to deal with a corrupt company?

Sure you could say they want this theoretical corrupt company to do the dirty work of suborning government officials for them, but that's playing with fire as a corrupt company is by nature corrupt and will turn it's talents right back on Dassault.

In Dassault's ideal world they corrupt the government to give them lots of money while dealing with a meticulously honest and efficient company that keeps costs low. That spread between income and outgo is profit.

manum · Post by **manum** » 06 Apr 2013 10:16

Dassault just does not want to part with specific technologies.

what is it that reliance can do and HAL cant? or if that is so let Reliance subordinate HAL in manufacturing/assembling with minimal cost initially...

Itll be disastrous to keep HAL out...